Corn is trading lower for the eighth consecutively lower day on favorable August weather forecasts and poor export sales that were released this morning.
The USDA reported an increase of 4.2 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, which was down 66% from the previous week and down from the prior 4-week average. There was an increase of 13.7 mb for 23/24, and exports of 24.7 mb were up 52% from the previous week and 26% from the prior 4-week average.
Yesterday evening, StoneX revised their estimates for US corn yields higher to 177 bpa, a lofty estimate, but below the USDA’s last estimate of 177.5 bpa.
Although the USDA predicted that Brazil would overtake the US as the world’s leading exporter of corn, the National Corn Growers Association has said that Brazil’s growth this season may not be sustainable in the coming years.
Soybeans are trading higher today despite the favorable August weather forecasts after export sales were released and saw good activity, as well as the report of another flash sale today.
Private exporters reported sales of 134,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. China and unknown destinations have been active buyers of US soybeans over the past week.
The USDA reported an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, which was down 54% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average. There was an increase of 96.7 mb for the 23/24 marketing year, and exports were 12.7 mb, which was down 9% from the previous week but up 30% from the prior 4-week average.
Crop trader Bunge is expecting tightness in US soybean oil as renewable diesel usage ramps up and increases demand for the product.
Wheat is lower again today and has been pulled down by disappointing export sales as well as Paris milling wheat futures that are lower for the eighth consecutive day.
The USDA reported an increase of 15.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, which was up 81% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average but increases for 24/25 were just 0.5 mb. Exports of 18.6 mb were above the 14.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate.
India is seeking to import 9 mmt of wheat from Russia in an attempt to boost their domestic stockpiles and fight rising prices in the country.
Vladimir Putin seems to be floating the idea of reinstating the Black Sea grain deal, but only if their requirements are met, but last time they renewed the deal they still made it difficult for Ukraine to get ships moving.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday after retreating from gains made overnight due to Russia attacking a Ukrainian port on the Danube River. Trade is mostly focused on the favorable 2-week forecast.
December corn has fallen by 67 cents in the past seven days, as weather turned from hot and dry to a forecast of cooler and wetter. Today, heavy rains have fallen in Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and southern Illinois.
The June Crushings report showed that corn used in ethanol production was 441.5 mb, up slightly from May and in line with expectations. Ethanol margins have improved since June.
While Brazil has dominated global export sales in corn, China purchased 11 mmt of Ukrainian corn last year, and they will likely have to turn to the US to make up some of that grain.
Soybeans are lower again today, along with lower soybean meal, but soybean oil is bull spread with the front two contracts higher and deferred contracts lower. Favorable weather forecasts are pressuring soybeans.
November soybeans have lost approximately $1.05 in the past 7 days as a result of recent rains, along with a good looking forecast for the next two weeks, which shows steady rains and temperatures in the 80’s for the Corn Belt.
June soybean crush was released and showed 174.6 mb crushed, slightly higher than a year ago, but below trade expectations.
Following the recent selloff, US FOB soybean meal is currently $4/ton cheaper than Argentine offers, but no new sales have been reported.
Wheat is trading lower and has shown the biggest reversal from overnight highs as a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River port.
Traders have become a bit numb to attacks on Ukrainian ports at this point, and although the market might rally, focus quickly turns back to winter wheat harvest and weather.
There has been some supportive news as Canada’s spring wheat areas have been drier than normal, while Argentina’s topsoil and subsoil moisture are very short with no rain in the forecast.
The quarterly Flour Milling report was released and all wheat ground for flour was at 222 mb, down 2% from the first quarter grind and down 4% from the second quarter of 2022.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading relatively unchanged at midday, but has seen a 10-cent range throughout the day. Crop conditions worsened yesterday, but that was expected, and the upcoming forecast includes more moisture.
Yesterday’s crop ratings showed corn’s good to excellent rating slip by 2 points to 55% vs the average trade guess of 56%. 84% of the crop is silking compared to 68% last week and 77% a year ago at this time.
This crop is currently the fifth lowest rated crop since 1988, but if this August forecast holds up with cooler temperatures and more rain, conditions could come back.
US corn inspections were a bit better last week at 20.3 mb, but are still 33% below a year ago, as Brazil keeps control of the world export market.
Soybeans have been trading either side of unchanged so far today, but are currently slightly higher with support from soybean meal, while soybean oil is lower.
Crop progress data showed good to excellent ratings, falling by 2 points from last week to 52%, which was below the average trade guess and below 60% a year ago. 83% of the crop is blooming and 50% is setting pods.
The 6 to 10-day forecast is showing showers for Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, with expectations for 1 to 3 inches of rain between Sunday and Tuesday.
Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.
Wheat is trading lower despite a bigger than expected drop in good to excellent ratings and is being pressured by Paris milling wheat, which is lower for the sixth consecutive day.
The spring wheat crop is reportedly 2% harvested with a good to excellent rating that fell by 7 points to 42%, which compares to 70% a year ago. Winter wheat harvest was slightly above trade expectations at 80% harvested compared with 68% a week ago.
SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt, as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt.
Ukraine is reportedly discussing using Croatian ports for grain exports on the Danube River and the Adriatic Sea.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday after the December contract gapped down overnight on weather forecasts that are trending cooler and wetter over the next seven days.
Over the weekend, rains fell near Wisconsin and Michigan, and today, those storms are moving into Nebraska, South Dakota, Missouri, and Arkansas. While there are bullish arguments to be made, it appears that traders are focusing on weather forecasts for now.
Crop progress will be released this afternoon, and good to excellent ratings for corn are expected to slip between 1 and 3% after last week’s heat wave. Last week’s good-to-excellent rating was 57%.
Black Sea ports are now reportedly blockaded, and the waters could be mined, and Russia attacked another Black Sea grain storage facility in Kherson, Ukraine over the weekend.
November soybeans gapped lower last night on better weather forecasts, and the next area of resistance is the 200-day moving average at 13.35.
Both soybean meal and oil are lower as Brazilian meal production estimates increase, Malaysian palm oil exports rise, and Chinese soybean meal fell by 9 dollars a ton today.
Export demand showed signs of life last week with 32 mb of old crop sales, which were to China and unknown destinations, but so far China has only booked less than 80 mb of new crop soybeans.
Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.
All three wheat contracts are trading lower today with Partis milling wheat futures down for the fifth straight day and US contracts down 4 out of the last 5 days.
The Wheat Quality Tour has put out yield numbers that were higher than expected which has been the main bearish influence despite the conflict in Ukraine.
SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt.
With Ukraine essentially out of commission for grain exports, it was thought that demand may pick up more for US and EU wheat, but so far Russia has maintained control over exports.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
About 59% of the US corn crop is still said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Some weather premium might be taken out of the marketplace, with the forecast looking for better conditions next week in the Midwest.
September corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is trading near the equivalent of $5.11 per bushel, which is close to the lowest level in two years.
Argentina recently announced a new corn / peso exchange rate incentive to increase farmer selling. This could pressure futures as more supply enters the export market.
About 53% of the US soybean crop is still said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Private exporters reported 325,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China, 171,460 mt for delivery to Mexico, and 413,000 mt for delivery to unknown (all during the 23/24 marketing year).
April biofuel use by soybean oil was a record 927 million pounds (up 10% from last year).
Malaysian palm oil is down for the fourth session in a row, however, soybean oil is trading higher at midday.
About 43% of the US spring wheat crop, and 47% of the winter wheat crop are still said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Due to dryness, the Canadian wheat crop could be closer to 30 mmt (vs the USDA at 35 mmt).
The final yield of the spring wheat tour in North Dakota came out at 47.4 bpa. The average is 40, last year was 49.1, and the USDA is currently using a yield of 47.
Paris milling wheat futures are headed for a fourth lower close in a row, and a gap remains below the market that may eventually be filled. French soft wheat harvest is reported to be 83% complete.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported corn export sales of 12.4 mb for 22/23 and 13.2 mb for 23/24.
The Fed did raise interest rates yesterday, however, they did not say anything about what they may do down the road. This has traders wondering what they might do in September in terms of pausing or issuing another increase.
Hot temperatures will hit the Corn Belt today, with 90-100 degrees in South Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois.
European nations have said they will help Ukraine to export their grain via truck and railway, but there is question as to how much can be transported this way.
The USDA reported soybean export sales of 7.3 mb for 22/23 and 20.0 mb for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 256,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Chinese Dalian soybean meal prices are making new contract highs.
Lower palm oil continues to weigh on US soybean oil futures.
The USDA reported wheat export sales of 8.6 mb for 23/24.
Overnight, Russia launched missiles from a submarine into the Odesa port, keeping the wheat market volatile.
Day two of the spring wheat tour in North Dakota found a yield of 45.7 bpa (the USDA is projecting 47 bpa for North Dakota).
Taiwan Flour Millers booked 108,000 mt of US milling wheat overnight.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Michigan and Wisconsin are expected to get decent rains over the next few days, but much less is expected for the remainder of the Midwest. The western Corn Belt is also expected to be hot.
Weakness in commodities this morning may be tied to anticipation of another interest rate increase by the Fed this afternoon.
Several crop scouts are lowering their estimates of corn yield to around 173-174 bpa.
Last year, China imported 11 mmt of corn from Ukraine. Given recent circumstances, they might now need to look for alternative sources.
Private exporters reported two sales of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year. One sale was for 229,000 mt and the other was 272,000 mt.
India is said to be considering dropping the import duty on edible vegetable oils.
There is talk that Chinese domestic crush margins on soybeans are improving.
New crop US soybean meal exports are up 32% from last year, while Argentina meal exports are down 30%.
Day one of the spring wheat crop tour in North Dakota found a yield of 48 bpa. This compares with 48.9 bpa last year and an average of around 40 bpa.
Next week, Canada will receive rain, but it may be too late to offer much help to their spring wheat crop.
A lack of new attacks on Ukraine ports may have wheat on the defensive. However, it is being reported that Russia has planted sea mines and may consider attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea.
Russia is still the cheapest source of wheat globally, said to be $50 per ton less than Baltic or European offers.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The US corn crop was rated 57% good to excellent, the same as last week.
Temperatures will be hot this week in the western Corn Belt, but parts of the northcentral Midwest have chances for rain over the next five days or so.
The Fed is expected to issue another interest rate increase tomorrow afternoon, which may ultimately affect commodity prices, as well as renew concerns about recession.
Crude oil is higher at midday, and is at the highest level since April.
The US soybean crop was rated 54% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
August soybean oil closed at 71.99 yesterday. This is the highest close in over a year.
India will reportedly import 46% more edible oils in July than in June, and are building supplies with exports of Ukrainian sunflower oil being cut off.
China’s purchase of US soybeans yesterday was the first by them since late June.
The US spring wheat crop was rated 49% good to excellent, down 2% from last week.
The US winter wheat harvest is 68% complete, vs 77% average.
Russia attacked grain warehouses and infrastructure at the port of Reni in Ukraine (near Romania). There is still much uncertainty as to how much grain they will be able to export at this point. Reportedly, 30 vessels have been stranded along the Danube river.
Despite their domestic wheat prices surging, Russia still is the cheapest source of wheat globally.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The nearby weather forecast for the Midwest looks dry with temperatures warmer than normal. Areas west of the Mississippi could see 95-100 degree temperatures, though it may be a little cooler to the east.
The next FOMC meeting is this week, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again by 25 basis points.
Escalation between Russia and Ukraine has prices sharply higher this morning.
Brazil is in the process of harvesting the safrinha crop, with the International Grains Council saying that 68% has been harvested in Mato Grosso.
The USDA announced a sale of 121,000 mt of soybean for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year.
Weather is also a factor for soybeans, and the warm dry temperatures will continue to stress the crop throughout much of the Midwest. There are better rain chances in the 6-10 day forecast, however.
Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, offering a boost to soybeans. Strong domestic demand for these products, as well as profitable crush margins, should continue to provide support.
October palm oil futures are also supportive; they are near the contract high and the highest level since November.
Wheat is near limit up after Russia attacked the Danube River locations in Ukraine. After the closure of the Black Sea deal, this was the outlet for their domestic exports, which could have allowed 2-3 mmt of grain per month to be transported out of the country on the river. Now that ability has been severely reduced or possibly eliminated.
On Friday, the word was that Turkey and the UN would try to broker a deal to re-open Ukraine exports. Given the new attacks and escalation, it does not seem likely Russia will allow that to happen.
Matif wheat is also sharply higher on the war news, with some contracts having gapped higher and approaching the 200-day moving average. Matif futures have not been above the 200-day moving average since November 2022.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday but has come off its early morning lows. The 30-day weather forecast has shown more rain chances and lower temperatures into August for the Corn Belt.
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook has been changed to expect significant drought removal from the central Corn Belt after the recent beneficial rains.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now seen at a record 54 mmt which would be up 16% from last season and secures Brazil’s new spot as the top corn exporter.
The 7-day forecast is expected to be rough with little rain expected throughout the Corn Belt and higher-than-normal temperatures.
Soybeans are mixed at midday and have come back from early morning lows. Front months August and September are trading higher while the deferred months are lower. Front month meal is higher, while those deferred contracts are lower, and soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday, NOAA released their 30-day forecast that shows a friendlier forecast for soybeans into August. This may have put the brakes on this rally a bit alongside overbought technicals.
The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal has had impacts on soybean prices due to Ukraine’s exports of sunflower oil and meal, and with those exports halted, other world veg oils have moved higher. October palm oil was up 3.9% today and soybean oil is following suit.
Palm oil futures have rallied nearly 23% since the lows made in late May, and soybean oil is up about 50% in that same time, so a correction is not surprising.
Wheat is trading lower this morning with most of the losses in Chicago followed by KC despite a fresh attack of farm storage buildings in the Odesa region of Ukraine by Russia.
As spring wheat harvest continues along and fresh supplies hit the market, it becomes harder for wheat to rally even with the war escalating in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022, over 31.1 mmt of grains and veg oils have shipped from three Ukrainian ports to 46 countries.
The IGC raised global grain production and the stockpiles estimate with world grain production now seen at 2.297 billion tons, but wheat production itself has shrunk.
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