Though corn is trading lower today on sluggish export sales and harvest pressure, it remains in a tight trading range.
For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 22.3 mb in corn export sales for 23/24. These sales were primarily to Japan, Mexico, and China.
Last week’s export shipments of 23.7 mb were below the 39.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to Mexico, Japan, and China.
Private exporters reported sales of 137,160 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 121,920 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 15,240 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning after export sales came in far below expectations. The November contract is now trading below the 100-day moving average and both soy products are lower.
For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 16 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24. This came in below the low end of the estimate range. Last week’s export shipments of 20.0 were below the 34.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to China, Japan, and Mexico.
Last week’s sales of U.S. soymeal were the largest since May and above average for the date. The Philippines accounted for about 2/3 of the meal sales.
While Brazil decreased their corn planted acres, they increased acres for soybeans and are now expecting a massive 162.4 mmt crop which is pressuring prices.
Wheat is trading lower today with K.C. posting the most losses after another week of lackluster export sales. Yesterday’s Fed announcement that rates would remain high caused the dollar to rally, which is bearish for wheat demand.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainians have been so successful that Russian ships are no longer safe in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, which is why Ukraine has been able to start sending ships through that passage.
The Australian wheat crop is dealing with significant drought due to the El Nino weather pattern and now estimates are calling for total production to fall to just 22 mmt.
Sov Econ cut their estimates for Russian wheat production for 2023 to 91.6 mmt from 92.1 mmt citing a decrease in Siberia’s expected crop.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher today for the second consecutive day. Prices remain very rangebound as harvest begins.
Forecasts are calling for clear weather in the central and eastern Corn Belt which should help harvest advance, but rains expected in the western Belt could slow things down a bit.
US export sales have been very sluggish for corn as Brazil ramps up their exports with more competitive prices and Ukraine begins to ship grains out again.
Brazil’s CONAB revised their estimate of the 23/24 corn crop sharply lower to 119.8 mmt after planted corn acres were reduced by 4.8% in favor of more soybean acres.
Soybeans are trading lower again today following three consecutively lower closes due to harvest pressure. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday, Brazil’s CONAB estimated that the soybean crop for 23/24 would increase to a new record large production of 162.8 mmt as planted acres expand by 2.8%.
One bullish factor for soybeans is the profitable crush margins that range from $2.50 in the West to as high as $3.15 in the eastern belt with soybean futures falling more than its products.
This morning, the USDA confirmed a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
All three wheat products are trading higher today with Chicago in the lead as prices search for a bottom. Seasonal charts tend to move higher around this time of year.
Australia has been experiencing ongoing drought due the El Nino pattern, and as the drought continues, Australian wheat production and exports could fall sharply this year.
Russian grain exports are now seen at 60 mmt for the current season and the total grain harvest is expected to reach 130 mmt with 123 mmt harvested so far.
Egypt has swapped out sales of nearly half a million tons of Russian wheat in favor of French and Bulgarian wheat after objecting to Moscow’s pricing.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher but made new lows earlier this morning before rebounding, as early harvest put pressure on the corn market.
Yesterday’s corn inspections totaled 25.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 14. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 50 mb, up 10% from the previous year.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 51% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is down from 52% last week, and the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
Corn prices on the Dalian exchange are trading at the equivalent of $9.20 a bushel, but China’s Ag minister is estimating their corn crop at a large 285 mmt, which is 2.7% higher than a year ago and could suppress prices.
Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive day, despite numerous reports from producers that they expect yields to be lower than expected. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday, the USDA said that good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop were unchanged at 52% while trade was expecting a 1 to 2-point decline.
Weekly export inspections for soybeans totaled 14.4 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 14. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 28 mb, which is down 16% from the previous year.
Chinese customs data showed that January through August soy imports are at 2.63 bb so far, which is up 17% from a year ago as they aggressively buy from Brazil and make some purchases from the U.S.
All three wheat contracts are trading lower at midday as selling pressure continues amid spring wheat harvest and weakening world wheat prices.
93% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 87% last week. 15% of winter wheat has been planted, which compares to 7% last week.
Consultant firm IKAR has reported that Russian FOB wheat offers have fallen again to $235/mt, and Sov Econ is also reporting Russian wheat at $245/mt.
China has imported a total of 9.6 mmt of wheat between January and August which is up 53% from a year ago, but the majority of that was likely purchased from Russia.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn began the day relatively unchanged, but has moved lower making new lows for the year due to harvest pressure despite hot and dry conditions, which may affect crop ratings.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is nearing completion, but has been delayed due to heavy rains and flooding. While this delays harvest, it will likely set up good conditions for planting.
China’s corn harvest has dodged the worst of the typhoon flooding that hit the country and is now expecting a 2.7% increase in total corn output.
Two ships arrived at Black Sea ports in Ukraine over the weekend to load grains and other food products after the European Commission said that it would not extend the current ban on imports of Ukrainian grains.
Soybeans are trading lower with the November contract slipping below the 200-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Palm oil futures gapped lower on the open, following three consecutive days of gains, and Chinese veg oils were sharply lower as well. This comes after China has said they would double the imports of Malaysian palm oil to 500,000 tonnes a year.
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.
Brazilian farmers have planted 0.4% of the 23/24 soybean area compared to 0.16% planted at this time last year.
All three wheat products are lower with the biggest losses in K.C. wheat, with some pressure seemingly coming from the two vessels taking on Ukrainian wheat for export, as well as lower French milling wheat.
As Ukraine loads up vessels to export grain along the coast of Romania, Russia keeps up attacks on the port of Odesa. Over the weekend, attacks continued with drones and missiles inflicting damage.
Hungary has imposed a ban on 2024 Ukrainian farm products, which includes grains, vegetables, meat products, and honey. Slovakia has also banned Ukrainian grain imports until the end of 2023.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 5,458 contracts, leaving them short 84,139 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Midwest weather looks mostly dry over the weekend with some shower activity in the forecast next week. Elsewhere, western Argentina is still dry, along with northern and central Brazil. This is despite the El Nino pattern, which usually brings a wetter pattern to South America.
There are rumors of Ukraine selling corn to China, however, this has not yet been confirmed.
There are some signs that China’s economy may be stabilizing, but Europe is still a concern as their economy still appears to be slowing.
Corn futures remain in a relatively narrow trading range as the trade waits for more news before pushing in one direction or the other. So far, December corn has held support around 473.
The U.S. soybean export commitment remains down 34% from last year.
Brazilian farmers are able to legally begin planting crops this weekend. There is some talk that soil may be too dry in Mato Grosso, however, it might be too wet in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Current projections for overall South American soybean production are expected to increase 30 mmt (given good weather).
NOPA crush data will be released this morning. The estimate for August crush is expected to come in around 168 to 169 mb.
Palm oil remains a drag on soybean oil. For the second consecutive week, palm oil posted losses and inventory is at a seven month high at 2.12 mmt.
Russia is exporting a record 5 mmt of wheat per month. The question is, will they be able to maintain that record pace? They continue to be the world’s cheapest origin and there are some private estimates suggesting their production could exceed 90 mmt.
Weather concerns for Argentina could mean more wheat production cuts in that region, as dry weather continues to cause issues. Recent rains resulted in Argentina’s crop condition improving by 6%, but only to 24% good to excellent. Additionally, October looks to remain mostly dry there.
As El Nino strengthens, Australian drought conditions are expanding. Like Argentina, Australia looks to remain largely dry through October and this could affect their wheat production too.
According to Stats Canada, their all wheat production estimate declined to 29.8 mmt versus 34 mmt last year due to drought. That is a 13% reduction year on year, with yields expected to be down 17.6% due to drought.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 29.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 1.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 28.6 mb were below the 40.2 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 2.050 bb.
Ethanol grind should be off to a good start this year. Production increased to 1.039 million barrels per day and stocks fell to 21.171 million barrels, the lowest since December 2021.
The Midwest looks to be dry through the weekend, with chances for showers next week and temperatures above normal.
December corn may remain rangebound for now. The 2.2 bb carryout may lead to resistance around $5.00, but logistic issues in South America and Ukraine may keep support around the $4.70 area.
The USDA reported an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 1.790 bb.
Northern and central Brazil, as wll as western Argentina, remain dry. Continued dryness could potentially lead to a shift of some corn acres to soybeans.
NOPA crush data will be released tomorrow. Expectations are for 168 mb vs 165 mb at this time last year.
Early yield reports for soybeans in the western Midwest are quite variable. Given the spotty rains many have experienced this season, it is not necessarily a surprise. However, these anecdotal results may indicate the potential for further yield reductions.
The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.
The Rosario Exchange announced that the Argentina wheat crop may be closer to 15 mmt versus the previous estimate of 15.6 mmt. For reference, last year’s production was 16.5 mmt.
Paris milling wheat futures are higher for the second day in a row and may have found a near term bottom. This may provide some support to the U.S. markets as well.
The USDA is still estimating Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, some analysts have a higher projection. For example, Sov Econ is using a 92 mmt number.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday’s data indicated corn acres up 800,000, which was more than expected. So, despite a reduction in yield, total production was slightly increased.
December corn saw a low yesterday of 473-1/2 – this is equal to the low on August 16th. If corn can hold above this low, it may indicate that a bottom is in (at least in the near-term). However, breaking below this support level could lead to more downside.
Drought around the Panama Canal has reduced water levels and is cause for shipping concerns into the end of the year.
The next big day for the market (in terms of data) will be the quarterly grain stocks report on September 29th.
Soybeans had a negative reaction to yesterday’s report. While there were no significant surprises, fresh bullish news may have been what was needed to see a rally.
Assuming normal weather, the USDA is forecasting South American soybean production to rise by 30 mmt in 23/24.
Global vegetable oil markets are beginning to see a turnaround with higher palm and canola oil. This is helping soybean oil to rally this morning.
November soybeans have broken below the 13.50 support area, with the next support at the 200 day moving average, around 13.30.
In yesterday’s report, the USDA lowered wheat production in Australia, Canada, the EU, and Argentina.
News outlets are reporting that overnight Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Sebastopol in Crimea. This increase in tensions will likely add further support for wheat.
Managed funds held a large net short wheat position into yesterday’s report. Given the reduction in the global production estimate by 7 mmt, and the news out of Crimea, the market may be seeing some short covering in wheat this morning.
Hungary, along with Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, has indicated that they will implement bans on the importation of Ukrainian grain, if the EU does not extend the current ban that expires at the end of this week.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA rated the corn crop 52% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
According to the USDA, 34% of the corn crop is mature, which is 6% above the average, and may mean that the crop gets harvested quicker this year.
Test weight could be an issue for the corn crop, as the heat and dry weather this season has caused quicker maturity than normal.
China’s ag minister raised their corn production forecast to a record 285 mmt (the USDA is estimating 277 mmt).
Ethanol margins are increasing, due to rising crude oil prices and weaker corn prices. Crude has been on an upswing with OPEC intending to keep production cuts into the end of the year.
The USDA rated the soybean crop 52% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
According to the USDA, 31% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, which is 6% above the average. This could mean that harvest will begin earlier than normal.
Soybean oil continues to trend lower, getting no help from the palm and canola oil markets. This may be, in part, what is weighing on soybean futures this morning.
China’s ag minister raised the old crop soybean import forecast by 5 mmt to 100 mmt. Additionally, new crop was raised by 3 mmt to 97 mmt versus the USDA estimate of 99 mmt.
Ag Rural estimated Brazil soybean plantings would expand 3% to 45.5 million hectares, with production at a record 164 mmt.
The USDA said 87% of the spring wheat crop is now harvested, in line with the average. Additionally, winter wheat is now said to be 7% planted.
Russia’s ag ministry increased their 2023 grain harvest forecast by 7 mmt to 130 mmt.
Dec Chicago wheat continues to make new contract lows. This is making US wheat more competitive on the world market, but falling Russian export values and a high US dollar are not helping.
Wheat is very oversold from a technical perspective, which could mean that a bottom is near. However, commodities can become and remain oversold for quite some time during a strong downtrend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The average pre-report estimate for corn yield comes in at 173.3 bpa, versus 175.1 in August. Private estimates range from 171 – 177 bpa.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are mostly dry, with normal to above normal temperatures, which should help with harvest.
In South America, it is dry across central and northern Brazil, but eastern Argentina and southern Brazil are getting some rains, which is delaying the remaining safrinha harvest in Brazil.
The U.S. Dollar Index is lower to start this week, but has been higher for eight weeks in a row, negatively affecting US export demand for grains.
The average pre-report estimate for soybean yield comes in at 50.0 bpa versus 50.9 in August.
The USDA confirmed a sale of 185,000 mt of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 23/24 marketing year. Soybeans are starting the week off higher, though soybean oil has recently been struggling. This is likely due to the decline of Malaysian palm oil price, which has seen the highest inventory in seven months.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that funds are net long 203,000 contracts in the soybean complex, as of September 5th.
Russia rejected both UN and Turkey offers to reopen the Ukraine export corridor. This means that Ukraine will need to continue to transport grain via Europe. However, many EU countries do not want to import their grain due to concern about their own domestic prices.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower Monday, offering no support for the US market.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export FOB values fell to $240 per mt. Russian wheat harvest is now 71% complete, and Sov Econ increased their estimate of Russian exports to 48.6 mmt versus 48.1 previously.
The CFTC indicated that as of September 5, funds are still net short about 80,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading unchanged to lower near midday as traders wait for next week’s WASDE numbers to be released.
Net corn sales for 23/24 were 949,700 mt and were primarily to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Columbia, while exports of 515,000 mt brought total exports to 39,469,100 mt which is down 34% from last year.
Planting estimates for corn are very large at 94.1 million acres, so even with lower yields, ending stocks should come in near 2 billion bushels.
Brazil’s export group, ANEC, has reported that exports for September are projected to hit 9.67 mmt which is up significantly from the previous year which was 6.85 mmt.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher after opening on a lower note. Soybean meal is higher, while front month soybean oil is lower and deferred contracts are higher.
For the week ending August 31, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb in 22/23 and an increase of 65.5 mb for 23/24.
Last week’s export shipments of 44.9 mb produced total shipments of 1.992 billion bushels for 22/23.
Argentina’s soy crop for 23/24 is seen jumping 138% from the previous drought year with planted acres set to expand by 5.6%.
Wheat is mixed with Chicago and Minneapolis slightly lower and KC slightly higher with very little fresh news to drive the market.
There is pressure coming from rain in the forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas which should help with winter wheat planting conditions.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments were 11.6 mb and below the 14.0 mb needed.
Ukraine is now attempting to export grains through Croatian ports after Russia’s attacks on the Danube and Black Sea ports damaged infrastructure.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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