Corn is trading slightly higher near midday, but prices remain near their lowest levels of the year despite the forecast for hot and dry conditions until next week.
Dryness is forecast all along the Corn Belt and Midwest over the next 7 days, but the heat will be most intense in the western Plains while the eastern Corn Belt should not experience the extreme heat as much.
Export sales were nothing to write home about with 9.2 mb reported for old crop corn, up 16% from the prior 4-week average and new crop sales at 27.7 mb. 17.5 mb of corn was shipped, and 51 mb more needs to be shipped in the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimate.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.435 m bbl, but analysts were expecting 22.83. Plant production was 1.069 m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.035.
Soybeans are trading higher, while soybean meal continues its downward trend and soybean oil continues higher with demand for biofuels rising.
This morning, the USDA reported 3.4 mb of export sales for old crop soybeans which was down 42% from the prior 4-week average. 51.7 mb of new crop sales were reported, and shipments were 16 mb. 30 mb more of soybeans need to be shipped within the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimates.
Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil.
Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.
Wheat is trading lower but has backed off its earlier morning lows as trade ignores the concerns of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port cities.
Regarding the attacks in the Black Sea region, the markets seem to only react on the day that grain silos are destroyed, or agricultural infrastructure is destroyed. By the next day, markets are content to trend lower.
Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.
A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher near midday after Russia attacked Odesa with more drones overnight and also struck grain silos and warehouses on the Danube River at the port of Reni.
Brazil has maintained the advantage in global corn exports, but now the US is on par with Brazilian FOB prices into November which could cause US exports to pick up.
The next two weeks forecast is to be very dry and hot over the Corn Belt, which could cause crop ratings to fall and may be supportive to prices.
The EIA will report on ethanol production today with average production estimates seen at 1.035 m b/d and stockpiles down from the previous week at 22.83 m bbl.
Soybeans have recovered slightly from yesterday’s selloff and have been trading in a tight range over the past week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Export sales have picked up, which has been supportive, but the recent rains have greatly improved crop ratings, and a larger crop is possible, which has made it difficult for soybeans to rally further.
Palm oil prices have picked up, which has been supportive of soybean oil, causing it to be up for three consecutive days. Biodiesel usage has grown, which has helped support demand.
The July NOPA report revealed a record large crush of 173.3 mb, with profitable crush margins in a range of 3 to 4 dollars incentivizing processors.
Wheat is trading slightly higher, but is surprisingly quiet considering last night’s attacks on grain facilities in Odesa, as well as ports on the Danube River that Ukraine has been attempting to use to export grains.
Wheat has remained very oversold and has struggled to rally on bullish news because Russia continues to export wheat at much cheaper levels than other competitors.
Globally, apart from Russia, many countries are struggling with weather negatively impacting their wheat crops. Argentina and Australia are dealing with dryness due to the El Nino pattern. India, Canada, and the US have also dealt with weather issues.
A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday and continues to test the recent low of 4.81 in December, but has not yet broken through it.
The good to excellent rating for corn rose by 2% to 59% and is now rated higher than last year’s crop at this time. 96% of the crop is silking, while 65% is dough stage.
While the forecast calls for hot and dry conditions throughout the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, the western Plains are expected to be especially hot with triple digit temperatures forecast.
Rain is falling in Brazil, which is slowing their second crop corn harvest, but it is also helping their upcoming planting conditions which will begin next month.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning following a big improvement in crop ratings. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher.
Crop progress saw a 5% increase in the good to excellent rating for soybeans, with 78% of the crop setting pods.
Yesterday’s large sale of 15.3 mb of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year was an addition to the recent string of sales, and demand in the U.S. remains strong as well.
Palm oil prices are expected to rise slightly due to El Niño concerns, in which the impact will mostly be seen in 2024. This should help support soybean oil.
Wheat is trading lower at midday following crop progress, which showed spring wheat conditions improving and winter wheat harvest nearly completed.
92% of the winter wheat crop is harvested with Washington, Idaho, and Montana with more still to harvest. 24% of spring wheat has been harvested, and the next week is dry and favorable for more progress.
Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, U.S. prices are becoming more competitive.
Reuters reported that Russian missiles caused damage and civilian fatalities in western Ukraine this morning as the fighting continues to escalate.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower today but rebounded slightly after hitting its recent low of 4.81 in December and was unable to take that level out.
Friday’s USDA report estimated corn yield 2.4 bpa lower than the previous guess and is now expecting the national yield at 175.1 bpa.
While the USDA’s drop in yield estimates was friendly, they also lowered US corn exports which put ending stocks over 2.0 bb, so the overall report reaction was bearish.
Rains fell throughout the Northern Plains and northern Midwest over the weekend, but the forecast is now showing a drier trend for the rest of August and maybe even into September.
Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil on the heels of Friday’s WASDE report which showed a very tight ending stocks number.
Soybeans are also getting support from a flash sale reported by private exporters this morning to unknown destinations of 416,000 mt of soybeans.
India, who is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, reportedly imported 59% more palm oil in June but their imports of soybean oil fell by 22%.
On Friday, the USDA estimated new crop ending stocks at 245 mb, a decline of 55 mb. Yields were also lowered by 1.1 bpa from July, but recent rains may have given yield numbers a boost.
Wheat is trading lower around midday despite tension further escalating between Russia and Ukraine. Friday’s report showed US winter wheat yields improving which may be adding pressure.
Over the weekend, Russia fired warning shots at a civilian vessel in the Black Sea and sent more drones to the port of Odesa. Russia has said that they would retaliate for the attacks on the Crimean bridge.
Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, US prices are becoming more competitive.
The WASDE report showed US ending stocks rising by 23 mb due to declines in demand, but other countries may see their ending stocks falling due to lower production. Argentina, Canada, India, and Australia are all having weather difficulties.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales of 143,637 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
President Biden made comments that the Chinese economy is a “ticking time bomb”, further increasing tension between the two nations.
More rain over the next five days is forecasted for the north and central Corn Belt, but the longer range forecast is drier.
December corn is consolidating on the charts, forming a potential pennant pattern that would point to more downside price movement.
As of August 8th, 49% of the US corn crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
The 8-14 day US weather map looks warm and dry. Ridging across the Midwest in yesterday’s forecast has been reduced. Some soybean areas could probably use the dry weather, while others still could use some rain.
Low water levels in the Panama Canal are slowing trade in that area. So far Brazil is still able to satisfy China’s demand for corn and soybeans, however.
Soybean meal on China’s Dalian Exchange continues to make new highs. China continues to buy large amounts of soybeans, with crush demand positive.
As of August 8th, 43% of the US soybean crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Wheat export sales yesterday were better than expected, but are still behind last year’s pace. US soft wheat is becoming more competitive with Europe and the Black Sea.
All three US wheat futures classes are considered oversold by some technical indicators, including stochastics.
Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning and have had a lower close for 11 out of the last 14 sessions.
As of August 8th, 52% of the US spring wheat crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Russian wheat FOB export values are said to be around $255 per mt (as of today).
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina has 14.8 million acres of wheat planted. Dryness there is still a concern though.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 5.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 29.9 mb for 23/24.
Pre-report estimates suggest a corn yield of 175.4 bpa (vs 177.5 last month). Carryout for 23/24 is expected at 2,179 mb (vs 2,262 mb in July).
Chinese economic and trade data suggests that their economy is slowing. However, they did end restrictions on travel, which could help their economy to pick back up.
After recent weather problems in northern China, they may need to buy more corn for their reserves. However, it will likely come from Brazil, which remains cheaper than US. September corn on their Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.75 per bushel.
More rain is expected for the central and eastern Corn Belt over the next five days or so.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 40.3 mb for 23/24.
Pre-report estimates suggest a soybean yield of 51.2 bpa (vs 52 last month). Carryout for 23/24 is expected at 261 mb (vs 300 mb in July).
Compared with Brazil, US new crop soybeans are competitive for the Oct-Dec timeframe, which could lead to more purchases by China.
India has purchased 60% more palm oil in July (compared to June) due to the fact that it is about $100-$150 per ton cheaper than soybean or sunflower oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25.
On tomorrow’s report, the USDA may lower wheat production for India and China due to the weather problems they have experienced.
Despite FOB export values about $20-$30 per ton higher over the past couple weeks, Russian wheat is still the world’s cheapest. This continues to pressure the US export market.
Strategie Grains, a consultancy group, lowered their estimate of EU soft wheat production to 124.7 mmt (vs 126.2 previously), citing heat and dry weather as the cause.
Wheat prices are on the rise in India, and they are said to be releasing 5 mmt from their reserves (for domestic use) in order to combat these higher prices. This also supports the talks that they are looking to import Russian wheat.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn began the day on a higher note but has since slipped, and is trading a few cents lower as a trading range begins to form.
Recent rains in the Corn Belt, along with forecasts for additional rain to come, have pressured prices, but support for December corn seems firm around $4.90.
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour has pegged yields at 197 bpa for Illinois and 194 bpa for Ohio, large improvements from previous trade guesses thanks to the rains.
Friday’s WASDE report will be the focus this week with the average trade guess for yield around 177 bpa, but some private crop scouts estimating between 173 and 174 bpa.
Soybeans also began the day higher in the overnight and have slipped but are still trading higher with both soy products higher as well.
Day two of the DTN yield tour showed estimates of 60.2 bpa for Illinois, 58.8 for Indiana, and 58.7 for Ohio. If the yield estimate for Illinois holds, it would be a new record high.
The export group, ANEC, has pegged Brazil’s August soybean exports at 8.8 mmt versus 5 mmt in August the previous year.
Soybean oil is being supported by census numbers which are showing biodiesel exports at 29% higher than a year ago.
Wheat is trading lower near midday as the US harvest progresses and Russia continues to dominate global export sales.
Russian FOB values have risen by over $20/mt in the past few weeks, but they are still the cheapest offer and had another large sale yesterday of 235,000 mt.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports have totaled 2.76 mmt for far into the June/July season, but exports have been affected since Russia stepped up their attacks on export routes.
The Canadian Prairie is dry along with Argentina and Australia, which may hurt global wheat production. In India, prices rose to a 6-month high with production estimates falling.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA rated the corn crop at 57% good to excellent, up 2% from last week.
The DTN digital yield tour estimated the national corn yield at 177 bushels per acre.
Heavy rains and flooding in some of China’s main growing regions may cause significant crop damage.
Chinese trade data showed that imports and exports in July fell faster than expected. This may indicate that economic activity is slowing, and this is weighing on commodities in general today.
The USDA rated the soybean crop at 54% good to excellent, up 2% from last week.
The DTN digital yield tour estimated the national soybean yield at 51 bushels per acre.
Malaysian palm oil is near the lowest level in six weeks, offering weakness to the soybean oil market this morning.
September soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange remain expensive, around the equivalent of $18.19 per bushel.
The USDA rated the spring wheat crop at 41% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
Russia’s wheat export values continue to be the world’s cheapest offer, despite recent increases.
Dryness in Canada, Argentina, and the interior of Australia are all bullish to the wheat market.
India typically utilizes about 108 mmt of wheat domestically. With talk that their crop could be sub 100 mmt, this lines up with rumors that they may be looking to import about 9 mmt of Russian wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported 251,460 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The weather outlook for the next 10 days has rains mostly in the eastern Midwest and temperatures close to the norm.
Recent heavy rains in China have caused flooding and may have also caused significant crop damage.
Brazil’s harvest of the safrinha crop continues to make progress but is expected to be slowed by rain this week in the southern regions. Brazil export values of corn remain below US, offering resistance to the market.
Private exporters reported 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Good rains over the weekend hit the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. This is likely what is weighing on soybeans this morning, as higher yields become more probable.
September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are near the highest level since February, trading around the equivalent of $18.36 per bushel.
Today the DTN digital yield tour will begin, and traders will soon receive national yield estimates for corn and soybeans.
Wheat is rallying after news that Ukraine bombed two bridges that supply Russian troops. A Russian oil tanker was also struck. These attacks are cause for concern that Russia may retaliate.
Reports of an explosion at a Turkish grain elevator is believed to be an isolated incident not related to the war. It was most likely a grain dust explosion.
On Friday’s WASDE report, there is a chance that the USDA will reduce the spring wheat production estimate after crop ratings declined last week.
There is talk that India’s wheat crop could be below 100 mmt, when it was previously estimated at 105 mmt. India is also believed to be in talks with Russia to purchase 9 mmt of wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is finally trading higher after eight consecutively lower closes after Ukraine attacked a Russian warship near a Black Sea port overnight, which temporarily shut the port down.
Last night’s attack by the Ukrainians was the first time in the war that a Russian port was attacked and has traders concerned that Russian exports could be affected.
Today’s gains may be dampened by the increasingly friendly looking 7 day and 2-week forecasts for the entire Corn Belt, and essentially all corn growing areas, but with the crop having been so stressed, it is unclear how much some of the worst hit areas can improve.
Next week on August 11, the USDA will release their updated yield estimates. StoneX recently put out their own private estimate at 177 bpa which seems a bit high.
Soybeans are higher today, but have backed significantly off their overnight highs, which were caused by the attack on the Russian warship. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher, along with crude oil.
Malaysian palm oil futures are trading higher after a sharp selloff over the last week, which was due to surging palm oil stocks as production reached the highest levels in 7 months.
Yesterday, the USDA reported a new sale of 4.9 mb of US soybeans to China, and export sales for last week were an impressive 97 mb of new crop beans with primary destinations to China and unknown destinations.
While the US has finally picked up on some of the export action, Brazil still dominates globally with 12 mmt of soybeans exported in July compared to 7.5 mmt a year ago.
Wheat futures are mixed at midday and have come well off their highs from the escalation in the Black Sea region. Chicago wheat and Minn are still higher, but KC wheat has backed off and is now lower on the day.
Russia has recently sold 300,000 mt of wheat to Egypt and covered a large portion of an 800,000 mt sale to Algeria, but Russian wheat prices have been inching higher.
Russia recently said that it would offer cheaper wheat to “friendly” countries, ones that have not imposed sanctions, which is further proof that Russia is using food as a leveraging tool in the war.
Heavy rains in northern France and Germany have slowed harvest and raised concerns about quality. Germany’s crop is 40% harvested, while France is 87% complete. Ukraine has harvested 12.5 mmt so far but may not be able to export it.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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