Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, September 4, in observance of Labor Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher after opening lower last night as trade remains quiet, but the hot and dry weather forecast may be giving prices some support.
• Corn export sales for 22/23 were 71,700 mt which was down 39% from the prior 4-week average. Sales for 23/24 were 991,800 mt, and exports were 663,400 mt, which was up 34% from the previous week.
• Temperatures in the Corn Belt are expected to reach the 90’s and 100’s with virtually no rain expected which could cause the crop to mature too quickly.
• The EIA reported yesterday that ethanol production in the US fell by 5.2% last week, but inventory was down 50 million gallons due to increased gasoline demand.

• Soybeans are trading lower at midday with soybean meal lower as well, but soybean oil higher with support from higher crude oil.
• Export sales were good overall despite net sales reductions for 22/23 of 50,700 mt which was a marketing year low. For 23/24, sales were 1,123,800 mt and were primarily to unknown destinations and China. Exports of 319,700 mt were down 29% from the previous week.
• Some crop scouts and analysts are expecting yields for the soybean crop to fall below 50 bpa which would be down 2 bpa from current USDA projections.
• In India, record low levels of rain are being reported which may require larger imports of vegetable oils for the month of August.

• Wheat began the day lower but has recovered and is now trading higher in Chicago wheat while KC is unchanged, and Minneapolis is lower.
• There were significant deliveries against the September wheat contracts with 1,113 contracts of Chicago wheat delivered, which was more than expected, 168 contracts against KC, and very few commercial takers of the deliveries.
• Egypt’s GASC tendered yesterday for wheat and ended up buying 120,000 mt of French and 120,000 mt of Romanian wheat, and both were offered more cheaply than Russian wheat.
• The consultant firm IKAR raised their estimate for Russian wheat production to 91 mmt and are projecting wheat exports there to be 49.5 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn began the morning trading higher but has slipped and is now lower despite a hot and dry forecast expected to last over the next 14 days.
• There are concerns that water levels on the Mississippi River will be low again this year which would impact barge traffic and shipping.
• Rains continue to fall in Brazil which is keeping the harvest pace slow but also may create an early planting possibility in September.
• Brazilian corn exports in the month of August are expected to reach 9.19 million tons versus 6.89 million tons in the same month a year ago.

• Soybeans also began the day on a higher note but have moved lower and have now filled the gap left over the weekend. Soybean meal is lower along with soybean oil front months, while deferred soybean oil contracts are higher.
• The 14-day forecast which is hot and dry would be expected to offer support, but prices seem to be running into some resistance at the 14-dollar level in November.
• This morning, the USDA reported a sale of 10.0 mb of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations which comes after a string of recent export sales.
• Crush demand has been firm as margins increase with one bushel of 14-dollar soybeans reportedly able to be crushed into 17.35 worth of soybean meal and oil.

• Wheat is mixed with Chicago trading higher but KC and Minn contracts lower as prices struggle to find support despite tight ending stocks.
• Both US and HRW wheat are expecting their second-lowest ending stocks-to-use ratios in 10 years, but the lack of export demand is weighing on prices.
• Wheat production in Canada is expected to be 14.2% lower than last year’s crop, according to estimates released Tuesday by Statistics Canada on its website.
• Fighting escalated between Russia and Ukraine again last night after Ukraine fired several drones into Russia and reportedly destroyed some Russian military planes.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower at midday following crop progress that showed less deterioration of the crop than previously expected by trade.
• Temperatures were in the 60’s this morning through the Corn Belt with showers near the Oklahoma panhandle, but conditions are dry otherwise and are forecast to be hot and dry over the next 14 days.
• Crop progress showed corn’s good to excellent rating falling to 56% from 58% last week and the average trade guess being 55%. 88% of the crop is in the dough stage, 51% is dented compared to 35% last week, and 9% is mature compared to 4% a week ago.
• Brazil is currently harvesting their safrinha corn, but harvest pace is slow due to wet conditions in the South. Brazil’s total corn crop for 23/24 is projected at 133 mmt.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower and have come off the earlier morning lows with a recovery by soybean oil, while soybean meal trades lower.
• Surprisingly, yesterday’s crop progress data showed little degradation in the soybean crop with good to excellent ratings falling only one point to 58% despite the heat and dry weather.
• This morning private exporters reported a sale of 246,100 metric tons of soybeans to delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24, and a sale of 105,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for 23/24.
• Argentina is attempting to encourage farmer selling by possibly implementing a temporary forex rate for processors where 75% of revenues are exchanged at the official rate of about 350 pesos per dollar and the other 25% could be sold on parallel markets trading at more than 700 pesos per dollar.

• Wheat is trading lower again as it continues its lower trend, and December Chicago wheat has taken out its contract low as prices slump during harvest.
• Yesterday’s crop progress said 54% of the spring wheat crop was harvested and 37% of it was rated good to excellent. Minnesota has the best crop ratings at 63% good to excellent and Washington is the worst at 25%.
• Russia is currently harvesting their wheat crop which is estimated at a huge 85.0 mmt for 23/24 and will likely be big enough for them to maintain their hold on world wheat exports again.
• The President of Turkey is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin next week to discuss the grain deal with hopes Russia will agree to renew it.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning as more hot and dry weather is forecast over the next 7 days which could impact crop ratings further. Yield estimates are between 173 and 177 bpa.
• The Pro Farmer tour wrapped up last week with an average national yield guess of 172 bpa. The USDA typically estimates yields a few bpa higher than this crop tour.
• A flash sale was reported this morning of 123,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
• US corn exports have become more competitive with Brazil after a rise in Brazil’s basis levels.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning, along with both soybean meal and oil, as markets trade the hot and dry weather forecast which could cause the crop to deteriorate further.
• Pro Farmers crop tour ended last week with an average yield estimate of 49.7 bpa, which compares to the USDA’s guess of 50.9 bpa.
• A flash sale was reported for soybeans this morning of 296,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
• Exports have picked up for soybean meal as Argentina’s exports slip 27% from a year ago. Argentina’s crushing production has been limited due to their small soybean crop.

• Wheat is trading lower again to begin the week as prices hover near their lows, but are unable to gain momentum higher with the US completing harvest and Russia selling wheat so cheaply.
• A second ship that has left Ukraine through the Black Sea in Ukraine’s new humanitarian corridor safely reached Romania despite Russia backing out of the grain deal.
• There is dryness in both Argentina and Australia that could impact wheat yields, and India is having weather issues too which could impact their production.
• Yields for spring wheat in Minnesota and North Dakota are expected to be better than trade initially thought. This is in contrast to the USDA which has shown poor crop conditions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Chairman Powell spoke this morning, indicating that the Federal Reserve may issue more interest rate increases to combat inflation. EU inflation is higher than in the US, so there is also talk that their central bank may raise interest rates as well.
• There are still concerns about China’s economy and what that might do to demand for goods and food. The Shanghai Composite Index had the lowest close for the year so far. This index tracks stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and is one barometer for their economy.
• Corn has traded both sides of neutral so far this morning, which is a bit disappointing given the recent heat and dryness. With that said, temperatures for much of the Midwest are cooling off and will continue to do so into the weekend.
• Brazil may get some decent rains over the next week or so in the central and southern regions. This may cause harvest delays, but the moisture will help planting in the long run.
• November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at the equivalent of $9.43 per bushel, giving them plenty of incentive to import. However, Brazil is likely to get most of that business, keeping pressure on US exports.

• Private exporters reported sales of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
• Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are mostly dry and warm for the Midwest, which may cause further stress to the crop.
• October soybean meal saw an $11.10 gain yesterday, offering support to beans and incentivizing processors to crush.
• November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at a new high this year, at the equivalent of $19.03 per bushel.

• Chi wheat has traded both sides of neutral this morning, but is lower at midday. Pressure is being added by the US Dollar Index, which continues to trend higher, reaching the highest level in almost three months.
• Stats Canada will release crop production estimates on Tuesday, August 29. There is some expectation that their wheat production will fall below the USDA estimate of 33 mmt, due to the dry weather they have experienced.
• According to consultancy group, Agritel, Russia’s 23/24 wheat exports are expected to be record large at 49 mmt. Additionally, the production estimate from Sov Econ is up 5 mmt from last month.
• Reportedly, Turkey is advocating for the re-opening of the Black Sea export corridor. They are encouraging Russia to allow this to take place and government officials may be meeting with Putin.
• Ag Resource has reduced their projection of the Argentina wheat crop from 17.5 mmt to 15.9 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported a net cancellation of 0.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 26.5 mb for 23/24.
• The Pro Farmer tour found an Illinois corn yield of 193.7 bpa, vs 190.7 last year and 192 average. Numbers in Iowa were a bit more variable between the reporting districts, with some above average and some below.
• Northern Europe has been receiving rains that are hindering harvest, and also causing potential quality concerns (though the latter does not appear to be a major issue at this point).
• Argentina is still struggling with dryness, and there is disagreement between the two major weather models. The American model is putting some rain in the second  week of their forecast, but the European model remains dry.

• The USDA reported an increase of 13.4 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 44.8 mb for 23/24.
• The Pro Farmer tour found Illinois pod count at 1270, vs 1249 last year and 1259 average. Like with corn, the pod count numbers out of Iowa were somewhat variable.
• While the forecast for much of the Midwest looks to cool off this weekend, it also remains mostly dry. There is some feeling that this, combined with the recent hot stretch, may lead to pods not filling as well as normal.
• January soybean oil on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at the highest level in five months. Additionally, their November soybean prices are around the equivalent of $18.77 per bushel.

• The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
• The Russian government set a $270 floor (per mt) for wheat exports on public tenders. However, they reportedly have cheaper offers on private tenders. This is keeping them dominant in the export market, which continues to weigh heavily on US exports.
• Egypt’s tender this week resulted in a purchase of Romanian wheat, which was said to be at $256 per mt FOB.
• News outlets reported a plane crash that resulted in the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the Wagner mercenary group in the Ukraine war. Some believe that it may have been intentional, due to Prigozhin’s defiance of Putin a couple months ago. Despite this news and the fact that the conflict continues to escalate, wheat is trading lower this morning.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• One factor that may be keeping pressure on the corn market is Brazil’s anticipated record production. Currently, their FOB export values are cheaper than the US for August and September.
• Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour found corn yields in Indiana and Nebraska above last year (but still below the USDA’s projection).
• Weekly US ethanol production has been above 1 million barrels per day for twelve consecutive weeks.
• December corn may be trying to find support around the 4.80 level. It also remains at, or near, oversold levels on multiple technical indicators.

• Heat warnings are in effect as far North as Minnesota. The hot and dry weather pattern may continue to stress crops over the next few days.
• Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
• Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour found pod counts in Indiana and Nebraska above last year’s numbers.
• November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are trading around the equivalent of $19.04 per bushel. This represents a roughly 32% increase in price since the end of May.

• SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat production to 92.1 mmt (vs 87.1 mmt previously). This is above projection from both the USDA and the International Grains Council.
• News outlets are reporting new Russian attacks on grain facilities overnight in Odessa and the Danube River area. However, at this time, it does not seem to have stimulated much buying interest, with wheat trading both sides of neutral this morning.
• The US Dollar Index is slightly lower this morning, but remains in an uptrend. It is near an eleven-week high, and this continues to weigh on wheat prices.
• In Argentina, the wheat crop is rated just 20% good to excellent as of last week. This is due to intense dryness, and could mean another decline in ratings this week.
• There has still been no confirmation of the purchase of Russian wheat by India, though the talk is that they privately agreed to import between seven and nine million metric tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year, and 112,000 mt during 25/26.
• The US Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo, will be heading to China to meet with officials and business leaders in an effort to stabilize relations between the two countries.
• On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, corn condition declined 1% to 58% good to excellent.
• Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour found a corn yield in South Dakota of 157 bpa (vs 118.5 last year and 150 average).
• September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $9.69 per bushel.

• The weather pattern looks to remain hot and dry this week. Some models do have rain across areas of Missouri and Nebraska late in the week, but at this time, there are no widespread systems forecasted through the end of the month.
• Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour found soybean pod counts in South Dakota at 1013 (vs 871 last year and an average of 1040).
• On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, soybean condition was unchanged at 59% good to excellent.
• September soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at a new 2023 high, the equivalent of $19.82 per bushel.

• SovEcon raised their 2023 Russian wheat harvest projection from 87.1 mmt to 92.1 mmt.
• Media outlets have reported plans are being developed to use public funds to insure vessels out of Ukraine and through the Black Sea (along the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria). While this has inherent risk, Ukraine’s “humanitarian corridor” may be used to transport more grain out of the country, and this is weighing on futures.
• On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, spring wheat condition declined 4% to 38% good to excellent. Additionally, harvest is now 39% complete.
• Taiwan flour millers are tendering for 104,000 mt of US milling wheat this week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Private exporters reported sales of 111,770 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
• The Pro Farmer tour began today. Last year, they came up with a corn yield around 168 bpa, but the final USDA number was 173 bpa.
• China’s economy appears to continue to be struggling; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a new 2023 low. (This index tracks stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange). Reportedly, they did drop their lending rate this weekend in an effort to stimulate the economy.
• According to CONAB, Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is now 72% complete (vs 86% at this time last year). Rains in southern Brazil are causing harvest delays.

• Private exporters reported 159,350 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
• Historically, the Pro Farmer tour finds a soybean yield about 2-3 bushels below the final USDA number.
• Hot and dry conditions this week across much of the Midwest could help support the market. This should impact soybeans more than corn at this point in the season.
• November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange hit their 2023 high and are trading around the equivalent of $19.11 per bushel.
• Soybean oil is getting a boost from Malaysian palm oil, which hit a three week high after a surge in exports.

• Wildfires in Washington may have led to the destruction of wheat fields in that area over the weekend. However, at this point, it is not a major issue.
• The market appears to be unfazed by new Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow the past couple of days, which led to a temporary shutdown of one of their airports.
• Dryness in Argentina and Australia could pose a significant threat to those wheat crops, and disappointing monsoon rains in India could lead to them being a net importer of wheat. The deal between India and Russia regarding a wheat purchase still has no confirmation.
• US SRW wheat is now cheaper than French wheat, but the export market is still struggling.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher on a continuing forecast of hot and dry weather that is expected to last at least another 7 days.
• Triple digit temperatures are expected today for the western Plains as far north as South Dakota, and the central Corn Belt can expect temperatures in the 90s.
• Brazil is harvesting the final third of their second crop corn but will receive rain over the weekend, which could slow down progress.
• This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 112,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 year.

• Soybeans are trading higher today with the hot and dry forecast supporting prices as they are in corn. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
• Yesterday’s export sales report showed new crop soybean sales of 389 mb, far below last year’s 671 mb at this time. Exports have been a struggle as the US competes with Brazil.
• India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.
• With these two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would affect the carryout.

• Wheat is trading higher as well as futures become oversold on the technical side and may be carving out a bottom.
• India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
• A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
• The International Grain Council is estimating world ending wheat stocks at 261 mmt or 9.59 bb which is slightly less than the USDA’s estimate of 265.6 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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