Midwest weather looks mostly dry over the weekend with some shower activity in the forecast next week. Elsewhere, western Argentina is still dry, along with northern and central Brazil. This is despite the El Nino pattern, which usually brings a wetter pattern to South America.
There are rumors of Ukraine selling corn to China, however, this has not yet been confirmed.
There are some signs that China’s economy may be stabilizing, but Europe is still a concern as their economy still appears to be slowing.
Corn futures remain in a relatively narrow trading range as the trade waits for more news before pushing in one direction or the other. So far, December corn has held support around 473.
The U.S. soybean export commitment remains down 34% from last year.
Brazilian farmers are able to legally begin planting crops this weekend. There is some talk that soil may be too dry in Mato Grosso, however, it might be too wet in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Current projections for overall South American soybean production are expected to increase 30 mmt (given good weather).
NOPA crush data will be released this morning. The estimate for August crush is expected to come in around 168 to 169 mb.
Palm oil remains a drag on soybean oil. For the second consecutive week, palm oil posted losses and inventory is at a seven month high at 2.12 mmt.
Russia is exporting a record 5 mmt of wheat per month. The question is, will they be able to maintain that record pace? They continue to be the world’s cheapest origin and there are some private estimates suggesting their production could exceed 90 mmt.
Weather concerns for Argentina could mean more wheat production cuts in that region, as dry weather continues to cause issues. Recent rains resulted in Argentina’s crop condition improving by 6%, but only to 24% good to excellent. Additionally, October looks to remain mostly dry there.
As El Nino strengthens, Australian drought conditions are expanding. Like Argentina, Australia looks to remain largely dry through October and this could affect their wheat production too.
According to Stats Canada, their all wheat production estimate declined to 29.8 mmt versus 34 mmt last year due to drought. That is a 13% reduction year on year, with yields expected to be down 17.6% due to drought.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 29.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 1.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 28.6 mb were below the 40.2 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 2.050 bb.
Ethanol grind should be off to a good start this year. Production increased to 1.039 million barrels per day and stocks fell to 21.171 million barrels, the lowest since December 2021.
The Midwest looks to be dry through the weekend, with chances for showers next week and temperatures above normal.
December corn may remain rangebound for now. The 2.2 bb carryout may lead to resistance around $5.00, but logistic issues in South America and Ukraine may keep support around the $4.70 area.
The USDA reported an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 1.790 bb.
Northern and central Brazil, as wll as western Argentina, remain dry. Continued dryness could potentially lead to a shift of some corn acres to soybeans.
NOPA crush data will be released tomorrow. Expectations are for 168 mb vs 165 mb at this time last year.
Early yield reports for soybeans in the western Midwest are quite variable. Given the spotty rains many have experienced this season, it is not necessarily a surprise. However, these anecdotal results may indicate the potential for further yield reductions.
The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.
The Rosario Exchange announced that the Argentina wheat crop may be closer to 15 mmt versus the previous estimate of 15.6 mmt. For reference, last year’s production was 16.5 mmt.
Paris milling wheat futures are higher for the second day in a row and may have found a near term bottom. This may provide some support to the U.S. markets as well.
The USDA is still estimating Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, some analysts have a higher projection. For example, Sov Econ is using a 92 mmt number.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday’s data indicated corn acres up 800,000, which was more than expected. So, despite a reduction in yield, total production was slightly increased.
December corn saw a low yesterday of 473-1/2 – this is equal to the low on August 16th. If corn can hold above this low, it may indicate that a bottom is in (at least in the near-term). However, breaking below this support level could lead to more downside.
Drought around the Panama Canal has reduced water levels and is cause for shipping concerns into the end of the year.
The next big day for the market (in terms of data) will be the quarterly grain stocks report on September 29th.
Soybeans had a negative reaction to yesterday’s report. While there were no significant surprises, fresh bullish news may have been what was needed to see a rally.
Assuming normal weather, the USDA is forecasting South American soybean production to rise by 30 mmt in 23/24.
Global vegetable oil markets are beginning to see a turnaround with higher palm and canola oil. This is helping soybean oil to rally this morning.
November soybeans have broken below the 13.50 support area, with the next support at the 200 day moving average, around 13.30.
In yesterday’s report, the USDA lowered wheat production in Australia, Canada, the EU, and Argentina.
News outlets are reporting that overnight Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Sebastopol in Crimea. This increase in tensions will likely add further support for wheat.
Managed funds held a large net short wheat position into yesterday’s report. Given the reduction in the global production estimate by 7 mmt, and the news out of Crimea, the market may be seeing some short covering in wheat this morning.
Hungary, along with Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, has indicated that they will implement bans on the importation of Ukrainian grain, if the EU does not extend the current ban that expires at the end of this week.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA rated the corn crop 52% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
According to the USDA, 34% of the corn crop is mature, which is 6% above the average, and may mean that the crop gets harvested quicker this year.
Test weight could be an issue for the corn crop, as the heat and dry weather this season has caused quicker maturity than normal.
China’s ag minister raised their corn production forecast to a record 285 mmt (the USDA is estimating 277 mmt).
Ethanol margins are increasing, due to rising crude oil prices and weaker corn prices. Crude has been on an upswing with OPEC intending to keep production cuts into the end of the year.
The USDA rated the soybean crop 52% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
According to the USDA, 31% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, which is 6% above the average. This could mean that harvest will begin earlier than normal.
Soybean oil continues to trend lower, getting no help from the palm and canola oil markets. This may be, in part, what is weighing on soybean futures this morning.
China’s ag minister raised the old crop soybean import forecast by 5 mmt to 100 mmt. Additionally, new crop was raised by 3 mmt to 97 mmt versus the USDA estimate of 99 mmt.
Ag Rural estimated Brazil soybean plantings would expand 3% to 45.5 million hectares, with production at a record 164 mmt.
The USDA said 87% of the spring wheat crop is now harvested, in line with the average. Additionally, winter wheat is now said to be 7% planted.
Russia’s ag ministry increased their 2023 grain harvest forecast by 7 mmt to 130 mmt.
Dec Chicago wheat continues to make new contract lows. This is making US wheat more competitive on the world market, but falling Russian export values and a high US dollar are not helping.
Wheat is very oversold from a technical perspective, which could mean that a bottom is near. However, commodities can become and remain oversold for quite some time during a strong downtrend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The average pre-report estimate for corn yield comes in at 173.3 bpa, versus 175.1 in August. Private estimates range from 171 – 177 bpa.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are mostly dry, with normal to above normal temperatures, which should help with harvest.
In South America, it is dry across central and northern Brazil, but eastern Argentina and southern Brazil are getting some rains, which is delaying the remaining safrinha harvest in Brazil.
The U.S. Dollar Index is lower to start this week, but has been higher for eight weeks in a row, negatively affecting US export demand for grains.
The average pre-report estimate for soybean yield comes in at 50.0 bpa versus 50.9 in August.
The USDA confirmed a sale of 185,000 mt of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 23/24 marketing year. Soybeans are starting the week off higher, though soybean oil has recently been struggling. This is likely due to the decline of Malaysian palm oil price, which has seen the highest inventory in seven months.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that funds are net long 203,000 contracts in the soybean complex, as of September 5th.
Russia rejected both UN and Turkey offers to reopen the Ukraine export corridor. This means that Ukraine will need to continue to transport grain via Europe. However, many EU countries do not want to import their grain due to concern about their own domestic prices.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower Monday, offering no support for the US market.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export FOB values fell to $240 per mt. Russian wheat harvest is now 71% complete, and Sov Econ increased their estimate of Russian exports to 48.6 mmt versus 48.1 previously.
The CFTC indicated that as of September 5, funds are still net short about 80,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading unchanged to lower near midday as traders wait for next week’s WASDE numbers to be released.
Net corn sales for 23/24 were 949,700 mt and were primarily to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Columbia, while exports of 515,000 mt brought total exports to 39,469,100 mt which is down 34% from last year.
Planting estimates for corn are very large at 94.1 million acres, so even with lower yields, ending stocks should come in near 2 billion bushels.
Brazil’s export group, ANEC, has reported that exports for September are projected to hit 9.67 mmt which is up significantly from the previous year which was 6.85 mmt.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher after opening on a lower note. Soybean meal is higher, while front month soybean oil is lower and deferred contracts are higher.
For the week ending August 31, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb in 22/23 and an increase of 65.5 mb for 23/24.
Last week’s export shipments of 44.9 mb produced total shipments of 1.992 billion bushels for 22/23.
Argentina’s soy crop for 23/24 is seen jumping 138% from the previous drought year with planted acres set to expand by 5.6%.
Wheat is mixed with Chicago and Minneapolis slightly lower and KC slightly higher with very little fresh news to drive the market.
There is pressure coming from rain in the forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas which should help with winter wheat planting conditions.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments were 11.6 mb and below the 14.0 mb needed.
Ukraine is now attempting to export grains through Croatian ports after Russia’s attacks on the Danube and Black Sea ports damaged infrastructure.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has been on both sides of unchanged near midday as markets trade quietly ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. Hot and dry conditions are causing harvest to begin a bit early.
StoneX revised their national corn yield estimate to 175 bpa, which is 2 bpa below their previous estimate but in line with the USDA’s last estimate.
Average estimates for next week’s WASDE report from RJO Brien show corn yields at 173.4 bpa with an ending stocks number of 2,134 mb.
Brazil’s export group, ANEC, has reported that exports for September are projected to hit 9.67 mmt which is up significantly from the previous year which was 6.85 mmt.
Soybeans are trading lower along with both soy products, but soybean oil is down sharply despite the recent rally in crude oil. Falling palm oil prices have weighed on soybean oil.
The hot and dry conditions have really taken a toll on soybeans, giving the feeling that the crop is shrinking. Expectations are that the next crop progress report will show a further drop of crop ratings by 2-3%.
RJO Brien released estimates for Tuesday’s WASDE report with the average trade guess for soybean yields at 50.1 bpa and 23/24 ending stocks at a very tight 213 mb.
Customs data has shown that China’s soy imports for August have risen to 9.36 mmt which is up 31% from a year ago, and total imports for the first 8 months are at 71.6 mmt.
As of midday all three wheat classes are lower after a failed rally attempt earlier in the session. Weather concerns in some major exporting countries have been supportive of prices.
While Ukraine has been attempting to export wheat via their own corridor, Russia has continued their drone attacks on both the Black Sea and Danube River ports limiting Ukraine’s export capabilities.
In Australia’s wheat areas, dryness is expanding after the Bureau of Meteorology revealed that August rain amounts were down nearly 50% from the 30-year average which is detrimental to the crop.
In Brazil, wheat areas are receiving too much rain with flooding rains in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul threatening yields.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher near midday after yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a sharper than expected drop in ratings.
The good to excellent rating fell by 3% to 53% which is the lowest reading since the 2012 drought year. Illinois ratings fell by 10% and Iowa fell by 5%.
Ag Rural has reported that Brazil’s second crop corn is now nearing 88% harvested, while their first corn crop is nearing 13% planted.
Weather forecasts for the next 6 to 10 days are trending cooler for the entire Corn Belt with above average precipitation expected for the western Corn Belt.
November soybeans gapped higher yesterday evening but have moved slightly lower. Soybeans are still trading higher along with soybean meal, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday’s crop ratings showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans falling sharply by 5% to 53%. The poor to very poor rating also increased by 3% to 17%. These are the worst ratings since 2012.
Soybean export demand has remained active with another sale yesterday announced of 9.2 mb to unknown destinations. This brings new crop total sales to 526 mb.
Oil World sees Palm oil prices rising by more than 10% in the coming months amid poor production growth. The decline of palm oil production should raise dependence on soybean, sunseed, and rapeseed.
Wheat is trading higher today as global wheat production in countries apart from Russia is seen falling, and as Russia attacked more port cities in Ukraine.
Overnight, Russia sent drones to both the Odesa and Danube River ports delivering three-hour drone strikes which damaged several agricultural and port facilities.
The Australian wheat crop has suffered heat and drought and is now being estimated at just 25.4 mmt which would be down 36% from last year.
SovEcon has raised their estimates for Russian 23/24 wheat exports to 48.6 mmt citing increases in the production estimate.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher and has rebounded from today’s earlier lows as the hot and dry weather over the weekend likely did further damage to the crop.
Later this afternoon, the Crop Progress report will be released, and most analysts expect the good to excellent rating to fall by 2-3 percentage points.
Basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were higher on Friday as the low Mississippi River water levels slow the flow of grain.
The Brazilian second crop corn harvest is nearing completion and record production is expected but planted acres of corn for 23/24 are expected to shrink.
While corn prices have recovered, soybeans have not and are trading lower along with both soybean meal and oil despite poor weather and another flash sale this morning.
Private exporters reported sales of 251,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Crude oil is trading sharply higher today after Saudi Arabia said that it would extend the voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of the year. This should be supportive to soybean oil.
The Energy Department reported that a record 1.27 billion pounds of bean oil were consumed for biofuels which is up 49% from a year ago.
All three wheat products are trading higher today following a weekend attack on a Ukrainian port by Russia, and Putin announcing that he would not renew the grain deal after meeting with Turkey.
Russia booked a sale of wheat to Egypt in a private tender selling 480,000 mt over the weekend. Russia was passed over by Egypt for their previous two sales.
Russian exporters are reportedly offering wheat at $245-$250/mt FOB versus the recommended government floor level of $270/MT.
The Argentinian wheat crop has been struggling with dry conditions, but recent rainfall may have been enough to relieve the crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, September 4, in observance of Labor Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
DEC ’23
483.25
5
MAR ’24
498.75
4.75
DEC ’24
510
2.5
Soybeans
NOV ’23
1367
-1.75
JAN ’24
1380.75
-1.25
NOV ’24
1296.25
3.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23
607.5
5.5
MAR ’24
633.25
4.5
JUL ’24
657.25
2.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23
739.5
12.25
MAR ’24
744
10.25
JUL ’24
732.5
8.75
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23
771
4.25
MAR ’24
789.25
4.75
SEP ’24
794
-8.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23
4571.25
5.5
Crude Oil
NOV ’23
84.16
1.2
Gold
DEC ’23
1964
-1.9
Corn is trading higher at midday to start the month as heat and dryness remain in the forecast over the next 7 days and may threaten yields.
There were zero deliveries tendered against the September futures contracts.
September’s WASDE report may show reduced yield numbers but may also show increases in acreage, which could offset some of the production from yield loss.
US corn demand has picked up with export sales reported at 39 mb yesterday from 23/24 as the US has become competitive with Brazil.
Soybeans are relatively unchanged and have slipped from their earlier morning highs. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher thanks to higher crude oil.
There were zero deliveries against September soybean futures and both soy products.
There are slight chances for better rainfall in the middle of the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, but the benefits may be limited with harvest nearing.
Barge rates are soaring to over 42% this year as water levels in the Mississippi River fall again with little rain forecast to help. Barge rates are currently 85% over the 3-year average.
All three wheat contracts are trading higher with KC leading the way to start the month. Contract lows were made yesterday as reports that the spring wheat harvest may reveal better yields than expected.
On Monday, Putin and Edrogan from Turkey are expected to meet to discuss renewing the Black Sea grain deal.
Ukraine has been using its own humanitarian corridor to export grains with two more vessels leaving the region earlier today.
Australia has been dealing with hot and dry weather which has seriously impacted yields lowering their wheat outlook. China is a key buyer for Australian wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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