Private exporters reported sales of 223,540 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
China’s Dalian Exchange is closed today through next week for their Golden Week holiday, so not much business is expected from them.
The U.S. corn export commitment is down 3% from last year, compared to the USDA’s estimated increase of 23%. U.S. corn is uncompetitive in part due to low river levels and increasing barge rates.
Rumors indicate that Ukraine sold 1 mmt of corn to China.
Corn futures have been relatively stagnant but have closed higher for 6 of the past 8 sessions, perhaps due to variable early yield results.
Argentina is still too dry, and it is affecting their corn planting. They are 7% done which is about half of normal for this time of year.
There are rumors that China may have switched some U.S. soybean export sales to South America.
The seven-day weather forecast for the western corn belt has showers that will slow harvest progress across Nebraska, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and western Iowa. However, the eastern corn belt looks to have good conditions for the next seven days.
November soybeans remain below the 100-day moving average of around 13.07, which has been an area of significant resistance since the first close below it last week.
U.S. soybean export commitments are down 34% from last year, and at a four-year low.
The possibility of a government shutdown is on the minds of many traders, as it would result in the delayed release of economic data that could affect financial and commodity markets.
Argentina’s wheat crop is rated a dismal 22% good to excellent. However, that is up from last year’s 14% good to excellent at this time. They are still struggling with heat and dryness.
Due to hot and dry conditions, Australia is lowering their wheat crop estimate to 23-25 mmt. There is also talk of a lower EU crop.
All three U.S. wheat futures classes are still in a bearish trend but technically are at or near oversold levels. Both K.C. and MPLS futures made new lows yesterday.
After being beat out in the Egypt tender by Romania and Bulgaria, Russia is said to be offering wheat for export around $245-$250 per ton.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 33.1 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and 0.6 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 28.7 mb were below the 40.0 mb per week pace needed to meet the export goal of 2.050 bb for 23/24.
The average pre-report estimate for corn stocks as of September 1 comes in at 1.433 bb, versus 1.377 bb at the same time last year.
Ethanol margins remain strong, and production was higher this past week at 1.004 million barrels per day. Crude oil is also still in an uptrend, and though it has been on both sides of neutral this session, it tested $95 per barrel on the November contract.
Corn continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. Harvest pressure is adding resistance, but relatively low prices are keeping support under the market. It may take some fresh news to see a breakout either way, which could come in the form of tomorrow’s report data.
Rumors are circulating that Ukraine is selling and shipping corn to China. Meanwhile, China’s corn harvest is starting, and their crop is projected to be up 3% from last year at 285 mmt.
The USDA reported an increase of 24.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 20.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb per week pace needed to meet the export goal of 1.790 bb for 23/24.
The average pre-report estimate for soybean stocks as of September 1 comes in at 244 mb, versus 274 mb at the same time last year.
The low for November soybeans on August 8 was 12.82-1/4. So far, that support level has not been violated, but November beans are back below the 100-day moving average and a close below the 1282 level could open up the downside from a technical perspective.
Next week begins China’s Golden Week holiday, so not much business is expected from them during that time.
The USDA reported an increase of 20.0 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 21.5 mb were above the 14.1 mb per week pace needed to meet the 23/24 export goal of 700 mb.
The average pre-report estimate for wheat stocks as of September 1 comes in at 1.774 bb, versus 1.778 bb at the same time last year.
The average pre-report estimate for U.S. all wheat production is pegged at 1.731 bb, compared to 1.734 bb in August and 1.650 bb in 2022.
Egypt’s tender resulted in purchases of 120,000 mt of wheat from Romania, and 60,000 mt from Bulgaria. Somewhat surprisingly, those offers were cheaper than Russia FOB offers by $10-$15 per mt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Energy prices are rallying this morning, providing a boost to corn and soybeans too. As of this writing, November crude oil is up over two dollars per barrel.
The fact that both South America and Ukraine are shipping out corn may create some overhead resistance in the market, despite the fact that US prices are competitive.
The western Corn Belt should see harvest advance over the next week with little to no rain. In the Great Lakes area, it is a different story, with rains slowing progress over the next couple of days.
The significant net short position held by funds may be reduced before Friday’s quarterly Stocks report. This will be the next big day for numbers until the October WASDE report.
November soybeans broke through and are holding above resistance at the 100-day moving average (about 13.07). A close above this level would look positive technically, but the head and shoulders chart pattern is still ominous and potentially points to more downside.
Brazil plantings are a bit slower than normal due to dry conditions, and this may be offering some support to soybeans. However, the second week of the forecast shows some shower activity for central Brazil.
Chinese Dalian soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, and veg oils all traded higher, giving a boost to US futures.
Aside from the upcoming reports on Friday, it is also month and quarter end. This may be putting some volatility back into the market, as traders and funds square up positions.
The US Dollar Index continues higher for the fifth day in a row, reaching levels not seen since late November of 2022.
Tunisia purchases wheat for around $234 per ton, well below Russia’s floor of $270. Additionally, Egypt is talking with Russia regarding the purchase of 1 mmt of wheat on a private tender.
There is talk that France sold between two and four cargoes of wheat to China.
Argentina’s drought conditions are expected to get worse over the next several weeks, which offers a bullish backdrop for the wheat market. US futures continue to struggle, however, with exports still not doing well.
In addition to quarterly Stocks on Friday, traders will also receive the Small Grains Summary report which will include final wheat production estimates.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn crop ratings improved 2% to 53% good to excellent. Expectations were for steady conditions to maybe a slight decline. Additionally, harvest has reached 15% complete, which is above both last year and the average.
Scattered showers in the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt over the next few days will cause some harvest delays. But most of the Corn Belt should see harvest progress with good weather over the next week or so.
In South America, there is divergence between the two main weather models. The European model has better chances for rain in central Brazil, but the American model is still dry.
The US sold 65.2 mb of corn to Mexico, with 41.3 mb of that total for the 23/24 season.
Soybean crop ratings fell 2% to 50% good to excellent, which was in line with expectations. Additionally, harvest has advanced to 12% complete, also in line with expectations.
Overnight November soybeans rallied back above the 100-day moving average but have since faded and are trading lower this morning.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower at midday, offering no support to soybean futures.
According to Ag Rural, as of September 21, Brazil’s soybean planting is 1.9% complete versus 1.5% at the same time last year.
According to the USDA, spring wheat harvest is now 96% complete, and winter wheat planting is 26% done, which is slightly below the average of 29%.
Russia continues to export wheat at historically low prices, which has been keeping pressure on the wheat market. This is despite the threat of lower production in Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Europe.
It was announced that a third vessel has left Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, attempting to travel via the humanitarian corridor. However, threats from Russia remain a concern with new Russian attacks on grain facilities in Izmail (an export area on the Danube River).
Aside from issues caused by war, Ukraine has had little rain for the past 30-40 days and this drought may take a toll on their winter wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Harvest continues to keep pressure on the grain markets. Rains over the weekend that ran across the western Midwest caused some delays, but the East was mostly dry allowing harvest to advance.
Globally, central and northern Brazil remain dry, along with western Argentina. In addition, Australia, southern Russia, and Ukraine are also dry.
On Friday, the USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks and small grain summary reports. With corn having been in a sideways trading range, this could be the next big “data” day with the potential to move the market.
According to the CFTC, Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that funds added to short positions in corn and wheat. They are now net short about 145,000 corn contracts.
Last week, November soybeans broke support and are still trading below the 100-day moving average. However, they are very oversold by some technical metrics, including stochastics. This could indicate a bottom is near, however, a commodity can become and remain oversold for a long time in a strong downtrend.
China last week purchased some soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, in addition to 1-2 cargos from the US PNW for October.
Chinese Dalian soybean futures were lower, but soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil were higher on hopes of increased Asian demand.
According to the CFTC, managed funds reduced their long position in soybeans to 46,000 contracts (a 28,000-contract reduction).
Despite new rumblings in the Black Sea, wheat traders are not enthused enough to stimulate much buying interest. On Friday Ukraine attacked Sevastopol, a port in Crimea, and Russia again attacked Odessa overnight.
According to the CFTC, managed funds are now net short about 125,000 contracts of wheat (all three classes), with about 97,000 of that being Chicago wheat.
Australia’s drought is expected to worsen, and their wheat exports could drop to 17 mmt. For reference, last year’s exports were a record 32.5 mmt.
December KC wheat is testing the 7.00 support area today. Despite some global weather concerns, Russia continues to pressure the wheat market, with some analysts predicting their September exports will be record large.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn began the day higher but has slipped and is now trading relatively unchanged. Grains are having trouble moving higher as harvest begins.
This week’s Federal Reserve announcement that rates would remain high has caused the dollar to rally which makes US exports less competitive with the rest of the world.
Last week’s ethanol production fell by a much-larger-than-expected 6% to 980,000 barrels per day, and ethanol stocks also had a gain of 2.4%.
CONAB estimated Brazilian corn production lower after reducing acres and it is now seen at 119.8 mmt which is down from the USDA’s estimate of 129.0 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher but have slipped a bit from the earlier morning highs. The November contract is attempting to break back above the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
In Brazil, weather in central and northern Brazil are too hot and dry, but next week rains are expected to materialize which would help the recently planted soy crop. Estimates for next year’s production are at 163 mmt.
Argentina’s soybean planting is set to cover 39.54 million acres, the same as last year, but another severe drought is not expected, so a much larger crop than last year is expected.
Basis is expected to erode further into harvest as low water levels on the Mississippi River once again affect barge traffic. Heavy rains are expected from the northwestern Plains through Texas and Arkansas over the week which could help improve water levels.
Wheat is trading higher today but is still near contract lows as pressure comes from a new high in the US dollar index which makes wheat exports less competitive.
Russia has decided to stick to the $270/mt price floor proposed by the government which has given Romania, Bulgaria, and France to begin selling wheat below Russian offers.
A second grain ship carrying 18,000 tons of wheat has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port for Egypt, and three more cargo ships are heading to the port to pick up grain bound for China.
In Australia, the drought caused by El Nino conditions is expanding, and the wheat crop is set to fall significantly by 36% from a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Though corn is trading lower today on sluggish export sales and harvest pressure, it remains in a tight trading range.
For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 22.3 mb in corn export sales for 23/24. These sales were primarily to Japan, Mexico, and China.
Last week’s export shipments of 23.7 mb were below the 39.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to Mexico, Japan, and China.
Private exporters reported sales of 137,160 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 121,920 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 15,240 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning after export sales came in far below expectations. The November contract is now trading below the 100-day moving average and both soy products are lower.
For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 16 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24. This came in below the low end of the estimate range. Last week’s export shipments of 20.0 were below the 34.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to China, Japan, and Mexico.
Last week’s sales of U.S. soymeal were the largest since May and above average for the date. The Philippines accounted for about 2/3 of the meal sales.
While Brazil decreased their corn planted acres, they increased acres for soybeans and are now expecting a massive 162.4 mmt crop which is pressuring prices.
Wheat is trading lower today with K.C. posting the most losses after another week of lackluster export sales. Yesterday’s Fed announcement that rates would remain high caused the dollar to rally, which is bearish for wheat demand.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainians have been so successful that Russian ships are no longer safe in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, which is why Ukraine has been able to start sending ships through that passage.
The Australian wheat crop is dealing with significant drought due to the El Nino weather pattern and now estimates are calling for total production to fall to just 22 mmt.
Sov Econ cut their estimates for Russian wheat production for 2023 to 91.6 mmt from 92.1 mmt citing a decrease in Siberia’s expected crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher today for the second consecutive day. Prices remain very rangebound as harvest begins.
Forecasts are calling for clear weather in the central and eastern Corn Belt which should help harvest advance, but rains expected in the western Belt could slow things down a bit.
US export sales have been very sluggish for corn as Brazil ramps up their exports with more competitive prices and Ukraine begins to ship grains out again.
Brazil’s CONAB revised their estimate of the 23/24 corn crop sharply lower to 119.8 mmt after planted corn acres were reduced by 4.8% in favor of more soybean acres.
Soybeans are trading lower again today following three consecutively lower closes due to harvest pressure. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday, Brazil’s CONAB estimated that the soybean crop for 23/24 would increase to a new record large production of 162.8 mmt as planted acres expand by 2.8%.
One bullish factor for soybeans is the profitable crush margins that range from $2.50 in the West to as high as $3.15 in the eastern belt with soybean futures falling more than its products.
This morning, the USDA confirmed a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
All three wheat products are trading higher today with Chicago in the lead as prices search for a bottom. Seasonal charts tend to move higher around this time of year.
Australia has been experiencing ongoing drought due the El Nino pattern, and as the drought continues, Australian wheat production and exports could fall sharply this year.
Russian grain exports are now seen at 60 mmt for the current season and the total grain harvest is expected to reach 130 mmt with 123 mmt harvested so far.
Egypt has swapped out sales of nearly half a million tons of Russian wheat in favor of French and Bulgarian wheat after objecting to Moscow’s pricing.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher but made new lows earlier this morning before rebounding, as early harvest put pressure on the corn market.
Yesterday’s corn inspections totaled 25.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 14. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 50 mb, up 10% from the previous year.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 51% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is down from 52% last week, and the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
Corn prices on the Dalian exchange are trading at the equivalent of $9.20 a bushel, but China’s Ag minister is estimating their corn crop at a large 285 mmt, which is 2.7% higher than a year ago and could suppress prices.
Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive day, despite numerous reports from producers that they expect yields to be lower than expected. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday, the USDA said that good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop were unchanged at 52% while trade was expecting a 1 to 2-point decline.
Weekly export inspections for soybeans totaled 14.4 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 14. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 28 mb, which is down 16% from the previous year.
Chinese customs data showed that January through August soy imports are at 2.63 bb so far, which is up 17% from a year ago as they aggressively buy from Brazil and make some purchases from the U.S.
All three wheat contracts are trading lower at midday as selling pressure continues amid spring wheat harvest and weakening world wheat prices.
93% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 87% last week. 15% of winter wheat has been planted, which compares to 7% last week.
Consultant firm IKAR has reported that Russian FOB wheat offers have fallen again to $235/mt, and Sov Econ is also reporting Russian wheat at $245/mt.
China has imported a total of 9.6 mmt of wheat between January and August which is up 53% from a year ago, but the majority of that was likely purchased from Russia.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn began the day relatively unchanged, but has moved lower making new lows for the year due to harvest pressure despite hot and dry conditions, which may affect crop ratings.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is nearing completion, but has been delayed due to heavy rains and flooding. While this delays harvest, it will likely set up good conditions for planting.
China’s corn harvest has dodged the worst of the typhoon flooding that hit the country and is now expecting a 2.7% increase in total corn output.
Two ships arrived at Black Sea ports in Ukraine over the weekend to load grains and other food products after the European Commission said that it would not extend the current ban on imports of Ukrainian grains.
Soybeans are trading lower with the November contract slipping below the 200-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Palm oil futures gapped lower on the open, following three consecutive days of gains, and Chinese veg oils were sharply lower as well. This comes after China has said they would double the imports of Malaysian palm oil to 500,000 tonnes a year.
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.
Brazilian farmers have planted 0.4% of the 23/24 soybean area compared to 0.16% planted at this time last year.
All three wheat products are lower with the biggest losses in K.C. wheat, with some pressure seemingly coming from the two vessels taking on Ukrainian wheat for export, as well as lower French milling wheat.
As Ukraine loads up vessels to export grain along the coast of Romania, Russia keeps up attacks on the port of Odesa. Over the weekend, attacks continued with drones and missiles inflicting damage.
Hungary has imposed a ban on 2024 Ukrainian farm products, which includes grains, vegetables, meat products, and honey. Slovakia has also banned Ukrainian grain imports until the end of 2023.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 5,458 contracts, leaving them short 84,139 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
