|

9-4 Midday: Weakness in Grains Continue at Midday

  • Corn prices are softer at midday, following the rest of the grain complex lower. December futures are trading 1-3/4 lower to $4.30-00.
  • Allendale’s farmer survey showed corn yield is seen at 187.52 bpa with production at 16.631 billion bushels which if realized would be a record high output.
  • Argus Media has increased their corn production estimate for Ukraine by 4.4 mmt from the groups previous estimate to 31.3 mmt.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday, pressured by lower energy prices and lack of optimism of China demand for US soybeans. November beans are trading 5-1/4 lower to $10.26-1/4.
  • According to Rabobank, Brazil’s soy area is expected to expand by just 1.5% during the 2025/26 growing season. This compares the historical average soy expansion of 3.5%.
  • The agricultural brokerage firm, Allendale, released their soybean crop estimates for this year’s crop based on a farmer survey. Soybean yield is seen at 53.58 bpa while production is expected to reach 4.292 billion bushels.

  • All three wheat classes are weaker at midday, pressured by concerns that demand could start backing off as export competition increases. December Chicago what is trading 5-3/4 lower to $5.16-1/4.
  • LSEG has raised their Australian wheat production estimate to 32.3 mmt, up 7.3% from the groups previous estimate.
  • Rain fall is expected across the Southern Plains over the 7-10 days mostly driven by hurricane Lorena. This may cause some delays in harvest for the region.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-3 Midday: Grains Under Pressure at Midday

  • Corn markets are trading lower at midday amid potential demand concerns, as there have been no morning flash sales reported over the past several trading sessions.
  • Crop conditions declined by 2% this week, with 69% now rated good to excellent—still above last year’s 65% at this time and marking the highest rating for this point in the season since 2016.
  • Frost is forecasted to impact parts of Michigan and Wisconsin this week, while additional precipitation is expected across portions of the Southern Plains.
  • Brazil’s first crop corn planting has reached 6.7%, slightly behind last year’s 7.7% at this time. Meanwhile, drought conditions in the EU are expected to reduce corn production by at least 5%.

  • Soybeans remain softer at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing trade concerns. Soybeans and soybean oil trade lower, while soybean meal posts slight gains.
  • USDA confirms the sale of 185,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in the 25/26 year.
  • An appeals court has ruled that President Trump’s tariffs exceeded his presidential authority, sending the case to the Supreme Court for review in October. As a result, countries still negotiating trade deals—including China—are likely to delay progress as they wait to see whether the Court will strike down the tariffs.
  • Soybean conditions fell 4% last week—more than expected—with 65% now rated good to excellent. This puts the crop on par with last year’s rating at the same time.
  • Dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt led to declining soybean crop ratings in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, and Michigan. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota were the only states to report improvements in soybean conditions.

  • Wheat trades mixed at midday, pressured by rising global production forecasts and increasing export supplies.
  • Upside potential in the wheat market remains limited, as Russian exports continue to improve alongside rising production forecasts for both Australia and the EU.
  • U.S. HRS harvest is now at 72% complete, compared to 67% at this time last year and conditions remain unchanged at 49% good to excellent, well below last year’s 69% at this time.
  • Kazakhstan has experienced a very strong season and expects to have 8-9 million tons of excess wheat to export.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-2 Midday: Grains Remain Weaker at Midday

  • Corn continues to trend lower at midday after some private groups estimate higher ending stocks for both 2024/25 and 2025/26. December futures are down 1-1/2 to $4.18-3/4.
  • A private crop tour in McLean County, Illinois reported yield findings of 233.9 BPA, which is up from 227.12 last BPA last year.
  • A higher dollar at midday is adding weakness to not only the corn market but the rest of the grain complex as well.

  • Soybeans continue to lead the grain complex lower on lack of optimism regarding a trade deal getting done with China. November soybeans are 15-00 lower to $10.39-1/2.
  • There are rumors circulating that China may stop buying US products through the rest of 2025 as the trade spat is ongoing.
  • July crush will be released this afternoon. Analysts are expecting a record-breaking month at 207.2 mb compared to 197.1 mb crushed in June. Soybean oil stocks are expected at 1.90 billion pounds, which if realized, would be slightly higher than June’s 1.893 billion pounds.

  • All three wheat classes are drifting lower at midday, pressured by global production boosts. December Chicago wheat is trading 9-00 lower to $5.25-1/4.
  • Egypt’s wheat imports have fallen to 4.5 mmt this year, down 21% from the year prior, according to the finance minister.
  • Australia’s wheat output is expected to reach 33.8 mmt, which if realized, would be the fourth-largest wheat crop on record.
  • SoveEcon has raised their Russian wheat export estimate to 43.7 mmt, up from 43.3 mmt in the groups previous estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-29 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

  • Corn markets are trading higher at midday, supported by strong export demand and continued favorable weather conditions aiding the crop’s development as the season progresses.
  • U.S. corn exports to the EU for the 2024/25 season have reached a 35-year high, driven by ongoing drought stress impacting the EU crop.
  • U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions remains unchanged at 5%, down from 8% at the same time last year.
  • LSEG has raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop to 137.4 million metric tons, up 4% from the previous forecast, citing increased planted acreage. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest is now just over 97% complete.

  • Soybeans are trading lower at midday, pressured by continued weakness in the soybean oil market and light trading volume ahead of the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
  • Additional pressure on the market comes as China continues to source soybeans from countries other than the U.S., with increased purchases from Argentina and Uruguay.
  • Stats Canada soybean production this season is expected to drop 7.3% compared to last year.
  • U.S. soybeans under drought conditions rose by 2% to 11%, just below last year’s 12%. Persistent dryness in the eastern Corn Belt is drawing trader attention, with forecasts expecting the trend to continue into next week.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday but still seeing some support by strong export commitments for the 2025/26 season, which are currently 23% ahead of this time last year.
  • Stats Canada released wheat production estimates at 35.548 million metric tons, just below the pre-report expectation of 35.6 million. Spring wheat production was pegged at 25.992 million tons, up from 25.351 million last year.
  • Winter wheat acreage under drought conditions held steady at 31% last week, though significant rains across the Southern Plains this week are expected to ease those numbers. Meanwhile, HRS wheat under drought declined by 1 point to 13%.
  • Russian export prices have fallen to a one-month low due to harvest pressure, while EU prices are approaching contract lows.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-28 Midday: Grains Creep Lower at Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

  • Corn futures are slightly lower at midday, pressured by cheap South American product now that harvest is finished. December corn is down 1/2 to $4.05-1/2.
  • Weekly export sales for corn totaled 81 mb, which was on par with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now sit at 2.774 billion bushels, up 26% from last year.
  • Despite potential disease threats to this year’s corn crop, LSEG has slightly increased corn production for the US to 415 mmt with yield at 185.4 bpa.

  • Soybeans are weaker at midday, pressured by increased yield estimates. November soybeans are trading 4-1/4 lower to $10.43-1/4.
  • Weekly export sales for soybeans were above expectations at 43 mb. Year-to-date commitments are up 11.6% from last year at 1.869 billion bushels.
  • LSEG has raised their US soybean production forecast to 117 mmt, up slightly from the USDA’s estimate of 116.82 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday, pressured by rising global production. December Chicago wheat is down 3-1/2 to $5.20-3/4.
  • Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 21 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 445 mb, up 23% from a year ago.
  • Argus has raised their wheat production forecast for Russia to 86.1 mmt, up from the group’s previous forecast in June of 84.8 mmt. If realized, this would be the third-largest wheat crop on record.
  • Statistics Canada has upped their all-wheat production estimate for Canada to 35.548 mmt. This is up from the August estimate in 2024 of 35 mmt but down from the final output of 35.9 mmt a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-27 Midday: Midday Grain Prices Slide Lower

  • Corn is trading lower at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and improved rain prospects for the eastern Corn Belt in the second week of the forecast.
  • Dr. Cordonnier forecasts a 15% increase in Argentina’s corn planted acreage this season, while Brazil’s acreage is expected to rise by 1–2%.
  • Ukraine’s farm union has raised its corn production estimate to 29 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million.
  • Ethanol production fell to a 13-week low at 314.6 million gallons, down slightly from 315.2 million the previous week, and in line with year-ago levels. A total of 107 million bushels of corn were used in the production process.

  • Soybeans are trading lower at midday across the entire soy complex, pressured by the extended forecast, which shows continued dryness across the Bean Belt over the next week before precipitation is expected to return.
  • Soybeans pulled back from their highs after the visit with China was characterized as “unofficial,” with no future meetings scheduled with top U.S. trade representatives.
  • Dr. Cordonnier estimates Argentine’s new crop bean planted area to be  down 500,000 ha this coming season while Brazil’s areas are forecast to be up 2%
  • President Trump is following through with pressure on India to stop buying Russian soybean oil and has doubled the tariff on Indian goods to 50%.

  • Wheat prices are mixed at midday with Chicago and HRW edging higher. December Chicago futures are up 4-1/2 to $5.34-1/4 while December HRW is up a penny to $5.21-3/4.
  • Spring wheat ratings declined 1 point from last week to 49% good-to-excellent. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent last year. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 53%, up from 36% last week and up from 48% complete last year.
  • Russia’s IKAR increased the countries wheat production estimate slightly from 85.5 mmt to 86 mmt. The group also raised the country’s export forecast to 43 mmt, up from 42.5 mmt previously estimated.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-26 Midday: Wheat Edges Higher at Midday, Corn and Soybeans Lower

  • Corn futures are lower entering midday. December futures are down 2-1/2 to $4.09-3/4 while the March contract is down 3-1/4 to $4.26-1/2.
  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings held steady from last week at 71% good-to-excellent but is up from 65% good-to-excellent a year ago.
  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s corn harvest is near the finish line at 98% complete with first crop planting at 3.2% so far.

  • Soybean futures have reversed lower at midday after starting out the morning strong. November futures are down 1/4 to $10.47-1/2 while the January contract is down 1/2 to $10.67-1/4.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings improving 1 point from the week prior to 69% good-to-excellent. This compares to last year’s rating for the same week of 67% good-to-excellent.
  • China and the US are scheduled to hold trade discussions this week which has led to some optimism of a deal being made in the near future.

  • Wheat prices are mixed at midday with Chicago and HRW edging higher. December Chicago futures are up 4-1/2 to $5.34-1/4 while December HRW is up a penny to $5.21-3/4.
  • Spring wheat ratings declined 1 point from last week to 49% good-to-excellent. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent last year. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 53%, up from 36% last week and up from 48% complete last year.
  • Russia’s IKAR increased the countries wheat production estimate slightly from 85.5 mmt to 86 mmt. The group also raised the country’s export forecast to 43 mmt, up from 42.5 mmt previously estimated.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-25 Midday: Corn and Wheat Higher to Start the Week

  • Corn futures are firmer Monday morning, extending last week’s strength. December futures are 2 cents higher trading at $4.14.
  • Last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour highlighted strong yield potential but still came in below USDA estimates, pegging the U.S. corn crop at 182.7 bpa versus USDA’s 188.8 bpa. The tour also noted widespread disease pressure, which could further limit yield potential.
  • Cooler-than-normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt should help ease emerging dryness stress. Forecasts also point to improved chances for meaningful rainfall in the western Corn Belt as early September begins.

  • Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the week as prices consolidate near resistance. November futures are 6 cents lower trading at $10.52.
  • Pro Farmer projected the national soybean yield at 53.0 bpa, just under USDA’s 53.6 bpa estimate. Pod counts were above last year in six of seven surveyed states, with Indiana the lone exception.
  • On the bearish side, prospects for a grain-specific trade deal with China remain absent, while Chinese importers continue to favor Brazilian supplies. Purchases from South America are reported at 770 mb so far, 360 mb above last year’s pace, with buying extending into November.

  • Wheat futures are higher across the board to start the week. December Chicago futures are 6 cents higher trading at $5.33-1/2. December Spring wheat futures are 3 cents higher, trading at $5.93.
  • Pressuring wheat are fresh showers across the Southern Plains — particularly Kansas and Oklahoma — ahead of planting, along with weaker EU and Black Sea values as Russia and the EU compete for new export business.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that recent rains improved soil moisture across Argentina’s wheat region, aiding crop development and nutrient uptake. Planted area for 2025/26 is estimated at 6.7 million hectares, up from 6.3 million last season.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-22 Midday: Midday Grain Market Mixed

  • Corn continues to see some weakness at midday, pressured by reports from the ongoing crop tour, which is uncovering record-high yield estimates in key production states like Iowa and Minnesota. The market remains focused on concerns that demand may struggle to absorb the large volumes expected to be harvested this fall, adding further weight to prices.
  • USDA confirms the following sales of U.S corn for export in 2025/2026, 119,769 tons to Costa Rica and 140,452 tons to Spain.
  • The percentage of U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions rose slightly this week, up 1% to a total of 5%, compared to 7% during the same period last year. However, forecasts call for precipitation over the next five days across Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, which could bring relief to some of the driest regions.
  • The International Grains Council raised their global production estimates for corn by 23 million tons to 1.299 billion tons, on a larger than expected U.S. and South American crop.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, with strength seen across soybeans and soybean meal. The market is finding support following news that Pakistan has signed an agreement to purchase 1.1 million tons of U.S. soybeans, shifting a portion of its buying from South America to the United States.
  • The ongoing crop tour across the U.S. has uncovered several disease-related concerns in soybean fields. Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) and white mold were among the most notable issues observed, raising red flags about potential yield impacts. In addition, drought conditions are expanding, with the percentage of U.S. soybean acres under drought rising by 6% over the past week, further adding to market uncertainty.
  • The lack of buying from China continues to be a main concern for the soybean market, as the trade war continues.

  • Wheat futures are mixed at midday with pressure from rising global production estimates and the continued influx of new wheat into the market as harvest progresses. The expanding supply outlook is weighing on prices, with traders closely watching both domestic and international developments.
  • U.S. winter wheat acres under drought conditions rose by 2% this week, now totaling 31%, though still well below the 45% reported at this time last year. In contrast, drought coverage on hard red spring (HRS) wheat declined by 2%. Looking ahead, significant precipitation is forecast across the Southern Plains over the next week, which could bring much-needed relief to dry areas.
  • Ukraine’s Economic Ministry has revised its wheat crop estimate to 21 million metric tons, down slightly from 21.7 million tons last season.
  • The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production estimate by 3 million tons to 811 million tons, reflecting a stronger supply outlook. Meanwhile, Argentina’s crop conditions improved significantly, with 73% rated good to excellent — up 11% from last week — boosting expectations for the South American harvest.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

8-21 Midday: Strong Export Sales Lead Corn and Soybeans Higher at Midday

  • Corn futures are catching a bounce at midday with September futures trading 4-3/4 higher to $3.84-3/4 while the December contract is up 4-3/4 to $4.08-3/4.
  • Weekly corn export sales were once again strong, coming in above expectations at 112 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 2.776 billion bushels, which is up 26% from a year earlier.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn planted area could be up 9.6% to 19.2 million acres this fall.
  • The US is looking into unfair trade practices as Brazil imposes an 18% tariff on ethanol imports from the US, according to the National Corn Growers Association. This comes in the face of a large crop looming in the US.

  • Soybeans are higher at midday, supported by strong export sales. November futures are up 10 to $10.46-00 while January futures are up 9-1/2 to $10.64-3/4.
  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 42 mb, which was towards the upper end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitment sit at 1.876 billion bushels, up 11.5% from last year.
  • The Pro Farmer crop tour has noted some exceptional yields but has also found some disease issues which could have an effect on final yield results.

  • Wheat prices are leaning lower at midday. December Chicago futures are 1-3/4 lower to $5.26-½, December KC is up 1/2 to $5.23-3/4, Minneapolis wheat is up 1/4 to $5.89-1/4.
  • Weekly export sales for wheat were lackluster, coming in at 19 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 424 mb, which is up 23% from last year and remains at a 5-year high.
  • SovEcon bumped Russia’s wheat forecast up from 85.2 mmt to 85.4 mmt for the 2025/26 season. The group cited favorable weather conditions as the reason for the increase in production.
  • LSEG left their wheat production estimate unchanged for the US, Canada, and Argentina. US is still pegged at 52.9 mmt, Canada at 35 mmt, and Argentina at 20.2 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.