The USDA reported an increase of 35.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 32 mb were behind the 40 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 2.025 bb.
In yesterday’s report, the USDA kept Chinese corn production unchanged at 277 mmt. This is lower than estimates from both the U.S. ag attaché as well as China’s ag minister. Therefore, the USDA’s world corn production number could be too low currently because China’s production could eventually be revised higher.
The war in Israel has resulted in increased tensions globally as Hamas is encouraging Jihad today. This has caused fears of potential new terrorist attacks at home and abroad. The uncertainty in the Middle East may also be contributing to the choppy crude oil market due to uncertainty about production in that part of the world. As of writing, it seems to have a bullish influence with crude up over $3 per barrel; if it continues higher it may provide support for ethanol and biofuels.
Despite some rain in the upper Midwest, most of the U.S. is dry. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have mainly normal temperatures with normal to below normal rainfall.
The USDA reported an increase of 38.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 52.8 mb were above the 34.9 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 1.755 bb.
Private exporters reported sales of 117,300 mt of soybeans and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybeans had a strong close yesterday after some bullish surprises on the USDA report. However, they are trading lower at midday today. The 21-day moving average may be keeping futures in check; they have traded below that average since mid-September. Yesterday, November soybeans did break through but closed below that level (about 12.90) and are below it again this morning.
The USDA did increase biofuel demand yesterday. Some analysts believe that down the road, biofuel demand will exceed food use.
The USDA reported an increase of 24.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 12.6 mb were behind the 13.8 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 700 mb.
Private exporters reported sales of 181,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
The USDA kept their estimate of Russian wheat production unchanged at 85 mb. Some private estimates think this is too low, which could mean that global production will be revised higher on a later report.
The USDA did lower the Australian wheat crop, however, they kept Argentinian and European production unchanged.
Despite no change from the USDA at 16.5 mmt, the Rosario Exchange did recently lower Argentina’s wheat production estimate to 14.8 mmt due to the expanding drought conditions.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales totaling 124,545 mt of corn for delivery to Guatemala during the 23/24 marketing year.
November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is near the lowest level in more than three months. This could be due to reported higher than expected production, and there is a chance the USDA could address this on today’s report.
Due to the Columbus holiday this week, export sales are delayed until tomorrow.
While the U.S. corn market remains relatively quiet and in a sideways trend, Brazil continues to ship corn to China and other global destinations, since their corn prices are lower than the U.S.
Strategie Grains increased their estimate of the EU corn crop to 60.6 mmt (up 1 mmt from the previous estimate).
Private exporters reported sales totaling 295,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
November soybeans closed 19 cents lower yesterday, likely due to pre-report positioning.
On Wednesday, November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit a new two-month low. On Thursday bean prices were steady, around the equivalent of $16.50 per bushel.
In order to push soybean prices higher, South America may need to see widespread weather problems, beyond what is currently happening. CONAB released their updated estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop. They now estimate it at a record large 162 mmt.
There are rumors that China is looking for U.S. SRW wheat prices out of the Gulf. The U.S. wheat market could definitely use some more export demand and the recent decline in prices may have stimulated some international buying interest.
CPI data this morning came in at 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The U.S. Dollar Index is also sharply higher on the day. This may be in part what is weighing on wheat futures this morning.
As the war in Israel ramps up, and there is still uncertainty in the Black Sea, the wheat market may be choppy for the near future as traders react to the relevant headlines.
It is being reported that in South America, Argentine wheat yields are declining, and quality of Brazilian wheat is also declining due to too much rain in southern regions.
Despite the Russian government’s $270 per mt price floor on wheat exports, there is talk that private Russian offers are as low as $235 per mt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The average pre-report U.S. corn production estimate comes in at 15.100 bb, versus 15.134 bb in September. Additionally, yield is expected at 173.5 bpa versus 173.8 bpa last month.
The U.S. 23/24 corn ending stocks pre-report estimate is projected at 2.145 bb vs 2.221 bb in September, and globally the estimate comes in at 313 mmt vs 314 mmt previously.
CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazilian corn production in 23/24 to 119.4 mmt due to a decrease in acreage. This is still the second largest on record but down 12 mmt from last year.
Heavy rains expected in the Plains on Friday are moving west to east and will cause some harvest delays this weekend.
The average pre-report U.S. soybean production estimate comes in at 4.132 bb, versus 4.146 bb in September. Additionally, yield is expected at 49.9 bpa versus 50.1 bpa last month.
The U.S. 23/24 soybean ending stocks pre-report estimate is projected at 236 mb versus 220 mb in September, and globally the estimate comes in at 119.6 mmt versus 119.3 mmt previously.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit a two-month low after being down another 2.6% on Tuesday.
Private exporters reported sales of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 162 mmt, which is a new record and 5% above last year.
The U.S. 23/24 wheat ending stocks pre-report estimate is projected at 646 mb versus 615 mb in September, and globally the estimate comes in at 258.8 mmt versus 258.6 mmt previously.
Despite the potential production issues in Australia, their wheat futures are actually trading lower as their yields are coming in better than expected.
Lower global prices, especially out of Russia, are keeping the wheat market under pressure. There is talk that Russia sold 480,000 mt of wheat to Egypt this week at $265 per mt FOB. Additionally, EU wheat is said to be offered around $250 per mt in response.
Winter wheat planting is reported to be 57% complete and 29% of the crop has emerged.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange remains near the lowest price in three months, despite being a little higher on Tuesday.
Brazil’s first corn crop is reported to be about 30% planted, while Argentina’s crop is 15% planted.
Despite uncertainty in the Middle East, the U.S. stock market held up well yesterday and is trading higher at midday with the Dow up about 150 points. However, crude oil is currently trading about 50-60 cents lower per barrel after yesterday’s strong increase.
Midwest farmers should have another one or two days for good harvest progress before there is widespread rain coverage. Weather models have recently shifted the rain a little further north, but much of the Midwest could see 1-3 inches of rain.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange traded to the lowest level in two months on Tuesday.
Yesterday it was estimated that spec traders sold about 5,000 contracts of soybean oil, and the sharply higher crude market yesterday was not enough to support veg oil prices.
Brazil’s soybean plantings are said to have reached 10% complete, which is in line with expectations, as well as last year.
Malaysian palm oil stocks rose almost 10% in September but were still slightly below expectations at 2.3 mmt. Production did increase 4% over the previous month, which was in line with expectations.
Despite the tensions in Israel and the Black Sea, all three U.S. wheat classes are sharply lower this morning alongside Paris milling wheat futures. This could be tied to positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA report, in which wheat stocks are expected to be increased.
Southern Brazil is receiving too much rain, which is likely to impact wheat production and quality in that region. Long range forecasts are predicting better chances for meaningful rain in west / central Brazil, as well as Argentina – areas that will welcome any moisture they can get.
Ag Resource is estimating Argentina’s wheat production to fall to 15.2 mmt versus the USDA’s estimate of 16.5 mmt. Meanwhile, Australia’s crop could be down as much as 50% by some estimates, due to the impacts of El Nino.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The big news from this weekend was the Hamas missile attacks on Israel. This news has crude oil up over three dollars per barrel this morning. If energy prices continue to rise, it could provide support for ethanol and the corn market.
December corn closed on Friday with the highest weekly close in over one month. While it remains rangebound for now, this is somewhat unexpected given the fact that the U.S. Midwest is in the thick of harvest.
The U.S. attaché in Beijing increased their estimate of Chinese corn production to 280 mmt (from 277 mmt). In addition, China’s corn import estimate was reduced from 23 mmt to 20 mmt.
Northern and central Brazil are too dry, but southern regions are too wet. According to AgRural, Brazil’s first corn crop is now 28% planted. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that their corn crop is 14% planted.
After showing some strength overnight, soybean futures have since faded into negative territory as of mid-morning. The market may be wary of war in the Middle East with uncertainty as to what that might to do the grain trade.
According to CFTC data, as of October 3rd, funds reduced their net long position in soybeans to only 5,000 contracts.
Due to the Columbus Day holiday today, Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports are delayed until tomorrow. However, soybean harvest is anticipated to be about 50% complete as of Sunday.
This Thursday traders will receive the October Supply and Demand report. Expectations at this time are for a slight decrease to soybean yield and production.
China’s soybean futures price reportedly dropped 4% as they return from their Golden Week holiday. This may weigh on the U.S. market, but now that they are back it could also mean new purchases of U.S. soybeans.
New Russian attacks on the Odesa port in Ukraine, along with uncertainty in the Middle East, are keeping wheat afloat at midday despite lower corn and soybean futures.
Despite the danger they face, there are said to be another 12 vessels waiting to enter Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor.
According to IKAR’s estimate, Russian grain production is increased 1.2 mmt to 141.2 mmt. Exports are estimated at 64.5 mmt vs 64 mmt in the previous projection.
The USDA is estimating Argentina’s wheat crop at 16.5 mmt, however, some analysts have the crop at 15 mmt or lower due to the dryness they are experiencing.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today after a higher open with pressure coming from the jobs report that showed a higher-than-expected jump. This report caused the US Dollar Index to increase and equities to fall.
Yesterday’s export sales report showing 71.5 mb of corn sold was encouraging and caused December corn to reach its highest levels in one month.
Tensions have heightened further between Russia and Ukraine with Russia attacking the port of Odesa and the interior village of Hroza, killing dozens. Ukrainian exports are down 28% from a year ago with shipping a difficult task.
In South America, both Argentina and northern Brazil are too dry for planting, while southern Brazil is dealing with flooding. 14% of the corn crop in Argentina is planted.
Soybeans are trading lower following a higher open, along with both corn and wheat. The higher-than-expected jobs number caused concerns that the Federal Reserve will increase rates again.
Soybean meal is lower today, while soybean oil is higher, but both products have sold off significantly over the past few weeks, causing crush margins to fall.
Soybean export demand has been hampered by cheaper Brazilian offers, but domestically demand has been firm with record renewable biodiesel production.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River increased last week with barge rates declining, and soybean shipments were up 30.6% week over week.
Wheat prices were sent lower this morning after the Labor Department revealed that 336,000 jobs were added in September, above expectations. This caused the US dollar to rise, and wheat is sensitive to moves in the dollar.
Ukraine is still exporting grain through their own shipping corridor, but Russia appears to be getting more aggressive with reports of mines in the region, and a vessel from Turkey reportedly hitting one of those mines.
The dry weather patterns in Argentina and Australia may significantly impact their wheat crops, and Ukraine is talking about planting less wheat this season, so global supply may drop slightly.
Yesterday’s export sales report was average at just 10 mb, but the fact that China purchased 8.1 mb shows that the US may be getting closer to competitiveness globally.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is working higher at midday after a lower open as gains in wheat lend support. Export sales were a bit better than expected, which has also been supportive.
The USDA reported an increase of 71.5 mb of corn export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 24.1 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 24.1 mb were below the 40.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Exports were primarily to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Colombia.
Ethanol production was reportedly unchanged at 1.009 million barrels per day, and stocks were off slightly at 21.9 mmt. Ethanol production is 9% higher than a year ago.
Brazilian corn exports for October are expected to reach 8.9 mmt vs 6.2 mmt a year ago with much of that headed for China. There are also rumors that China is buying Ukrainian corn.
Soybeans remain lower at midday as they are under harvest pressure and also some early reports that yields may be better than anticipated.
Export sales for soybeans were decent with the USDA reporting increases of 29.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 24.7 mb were below the 35.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were China, Spain, and Bangladesh.
In Brazil, conditions in the northern region are too dry for planting and in the South, conditions are far too wet with flooding possible, and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast within the next 10 days.
Brazilian soy exports are expected to reach 6.71 mmt in October compared to 3.59 mmt at this time a year ago. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.13 mmt.
Wheat is trading significantly higher at midday as it rallies off its low set last week. Support is coming from an escalation between Ukraine and Russia.
Russia attacked the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv again today, and they have also moved their Navy vessels after Ukraine attacked Crimea. In addition, UK intelligence has warned that Russia may be planting mines with the intention of targeting civilian vessels.
The drought in Argentina that impacted corn and soybean production is ongoing and is now threatening this year’s wheat crop. Argentina is the third largest exporter of wheat.
Export sales were decent for wheat last week with the USDA reporting increases of 10.0 mb for 23/24. Export shipments of 14.3 mb were above the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were the Philippines, Taiwan, and Mexico.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower near midday as December futures find firm resistance at the $4.90 level. Pressure is also coming from harvest and a dry forecast into the weekend.
Yesterday, the stock market sold off sharply and the dollar reached new highs for 2023, which pressured commodities, and now it is being reported that Ukraine is having an easier time exporting grains.
Private exporters reported sales of 196,607 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. 109,226 metric tons are for delivery in 23/24, and 87,381 mt are for 24/25.
In Brazil, the first corn crop is now 23% planted according to CONAB, with the main growing area, Parana, now 71% seeded and Rio Grande du Sol 55% planted.
Soybeans are slightly lower, but have been trading both sides of unchanged today, with a higher open, but a fade into midday. Yesterday, November soybeans found support at the June 28 low of 12.56-3/4.
Both soybean meal and oil have been trending lower and are lower on the day. There were 605 total deliveries of meal in just three days, but no deliveries for soybean oil.
Yesterday, pressure on soybeans came from poor Census Crush for August at just 169 mb when trade was expecting closer to 172 mb.
Yesterday’s sale of 9.7 mb of soybeans to China during their Golden Week holiday was encouraging, but U.S. new crop bean sales are at just 16.2 mmt compared to 25.5 mmt last year.
Wheat is trading lower as a result of an increase in the U.S. Dollar Index and reports that Ukraine’s major ports have re-opened for exports of grain.
China made a surprise purchase of U.S. wheat yesterday of 8.1 mb, which was encouraging and points to the U.S. becoming more competitive, but Russian offers are still cheaper.
There have been reports that Ukraine is beginning to increase export shipments from its own grain corridor with 12 additional vessels now headed to the Black Sea ports for loading.
Globally, heavy rains are falling on Brazil’s wheat crop, which may cause quality issues, and in Argentina and Australia it is very dry with production expected to be negatively impacted.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday as it remains in a tight trading range. The Crop Progress report showed the crop maturing more quickly following dry weather.
The corn harvest is now 23% complete, which is near the 5-year average, but is slightly ahead. 82% of the crop is mature, and good to excellent ratings were unchanged at 53%.
StoneX released their yield estimates for the 2023 crop at 175.5 bpa with production at 15,202.
A sale of 210,000 metric tons of corn was reported for delivery to Mexico yesterday for the 23/24 marketing year. Exports remain sluggish overall, but Mexico has been a main buyer.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower at midday as harvest pressure has sent prices significantly lower. Since the August high, November soybeans have lost nearly $1.50.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today as soy product prices begin to slip and hold less of an incentive for processors to crush soybeans.
265,000 metric tons of soybeans were reportedly delivered to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
StoneX revealed their estimates for 2023 soybeans with yields at 50.4 bpa, above the last USDA estimate, and production at 4,175.
Wheat is mixed today with Chicago higher, KC relatively unchanged, and Minneapolis lower. All three wheat products made contract lows last week.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA said that 40% of the winter wheat crop was planted, which was in line with expectations and up from 26% a week ago. 15% of the crop is emerged.
US exports remain behind as Russia continues to sell wheat cheaply, and Sov Econ has reported that they exported 5.1 mmt of wheat in September compared to 5.3 mmt in August.
This morning, a surprise sale of 220,000 metric tons of soft winter wheat was reported for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher near midday and has taken back a significant amount of Friday’s losses following the quarterly grain Stocks report. The government avoided a shutdown, which has been supportive to markets.
Corn had a surprisingly negative reaction to Friday’s report, which showed September 1 stocks at 1.361 billion bushels, which was 78 mb below the September WASDE and 91 mb below last year’s stocks.
This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show harvest between 26 and 28 percent complete, with crop conditions called steady to lower.
A sale of 210,000 metric tons of corn was reported for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year. Exports remain sluggish overall, but Mexico has been a main buyer.
Soybeans are now unchanged to slightly higher after opening lower earlier this morning. Friday’s grain Stocks report in combination with the end of the quarter last week sent prices sharply lower. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher.
Malaysian palm oil fell by 1.73% on Monday and finished last week over 6% lower, which has pressured soybean oil. Crude oil has been trending higher but has backed off a bit today.
A sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans was reported for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year. As with corn, soybean sales remain well below the levels of a year ago.
There were 275 deliveries of October soybean meal for Friday and another 59 for Monday, which added to bearish pressure.
Wheat is trading significantly higher, but still has not gained back all the losses from Friday’s selloff. The fallout from the Stocks report caused all three wheats to make new contract lows.
US wheat production increased to a larger than expected 1.812 billion bushels, which is the highest in three years and was way above the trade expectations of 1.73 bb, which caused wheat to sell off.
There are rumors that Russian wheat offers have dropped to $235/mt for private tenders which would be $30-35/mt below Russia’s last offer to Egypt.
Australia remains very dry with their wheat crop in bad shape. There is light rain in the forecast before it is expected to turn dry again, but some analysts are expecting their wheat production to fall by 30-40%.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
