Rains moving across the central US are helping the Mississippi River levels and barge traffic is reportedly increasing. The rains may slow harvest, but the moisture should be beneficial for the soil and next year’s crops.
Corn, while back in the recent trading range, may be finding support at these lower levels. Since the near term downtrend began a week ago, Dec futures have not traded below 4.75. Also, as harvest nears completion over the next few weeks, pressure may begin to ease.
The US reportedly attacked some Syrian targets as retaliation for drone strikes against US positions. This is further escalating tensions and is keeping the crude oil market volatile, which may in turn affect the grain markets.
The US corn export commitment is up 24% from last year, however, that is slightly below the USDA’s forecast of a 27% increase.
Scattered showers in Argentina should help with planting and germination. Some rain is also in the forecast for dry central Brazil, but the southern area continues to get too much – this is causing flooding and crop damage. As much as 3-10 inches of rain are in the forecast for both Brazil and Paraguay.
The US soybean export commitment is still down 29% compared to last year. With the USDA forecasting a 12% decline, a lot of ground will need to be made up.
There continues to be uncertainty in regard to China’s demand for US soybeans. However, the recent signing of the framework deal (though mostly ceremonial) is a step in the right direction for more exports. There are also rumors circulating that China may have cancelled purchases of South American soybeans in favor of US beans out of the PNW.
December soybean meal made a new contract high today, offering support for soybean futures.
Yesterday’s reports that Ukraine closed the humanitarian corridor through the Black Sea were later denied, and the route is still open. This may be what is weighing on wheat this morning.
India has plans to sell more wheat in the open market in order to help tame rising prices. Their government is set to sell 300,000 mt out of the reserves, which is up from 200,000 mt previously.
The first US winter wheat crop ratings will be released on Monday, and the trade is expecting conditions around 50% good to excellent. If true, that would be the highest rating for this timeframe since 2019.
The US wheat export commitment is down 6% from last year. For reference, the USDA is estimating a 4% decline.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Rains moving across the central US are helping the Mississippi River levels and barge traffic is reportedly increasing. The rains may slow harvest, but the moisture should be beneficial for the soil and next year’s crops.
Corn, while back in the recent trading range, may be finding support at these lower levels. Since the near term downtrend began a week ago, Dec futures have not traded below 4.75. Also, as harvest nears completion over the next few weeks, pressure may begin to ease.
The US reportedly attacked some Syrian targets as retaliation for drone strikes against US positions. This is further escalating tensions and is keeping the crude oil market volatile, which may in turn affect the grain markets.
The US corn export commitment is up 24% from last year, however, that is slightly below the USDA’s forecast of a 27% increase.
Scattered showers in Argentina should help with planting and germination. Some rain is also in the forecast for dry central Brazil, but the southern area continues to get too much – this is causing flooding and crop damage. As much as 3-10 inches of rain are in the forecast for both Brazil and Paraguay.
The US soybean export commitment is still down 29% compared to last year. With the USDA forecasting a 12% decline, a lot of ground will need to be made up.
There continues to be uncertainty in regard to China’s demand for US soybeans. However, the recent signing of the framework deal (though mostly ceremonial) is a step in the right direction for more exports. There are also rumors circulating that China may have cancelled purchases of South American soybeans in favor of US beans out of the PNW.
December soybean meal made a new contract high today, offering support for soybean futures.
Yesterday’s reports that Ukraine closed the humanitarian corridor through the Black Sea were later denied, and the route is still open. This may be what is weighing on wheat this morning.
India has plans to sell more wheat in the open market in order to help tame rising prices. Their government is set to sell 300,000 mt out of the reserves, which is up from 200,000 mt previously.
The first US winter wheat crop ratings will be released on Monday, and the trade is expecting conditions around 50% good to excellent. If true, that would be the highest rating for this timeframe since 2019.
The US wheat export commitment is down 6% from last year. For reference, the USDA is estimating a 4% decline.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 53.2 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 24/25.
Ethanol margins remain strong, and production was up to 1.040 million barrels per day, higher than the previous week and last year. Also, stocks are 4% below last year.
China’s hog herd is said to be down 0.5% year on year, and 2.8% down on the sow herd. This could reduce their feed demand and potentially affect import demand.
December corn on China’s Dalian Exchange lost about eight cents overnight, but still remains expensive, around the equivalent of $8.68 per bushel.
In today’s weekly export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 50.6 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 110,000 mt of soybean for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Brazil’s weather forecast is dry until the second week, however, rains may continue to get pushed back. Rainfall may remain limited as long as the Amazon basin is dry.
China’s signing of a framework contract to buy US soybeans has so far had little impact on the market. This type of agreement is generally seen as political in nature, but does allow them to purchase 3-5 mmt of soybeans down the road.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.4 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 24/25.
Ukraine announced overnight that they would be suspending their humanitarian corridor temporarily. This is apparently due to Russian threats. Since its inception, the corridor has allowed for about 40 grain cargoes to be transported via the Black Sea. However, Ukraine’s grain shipments are still down roughly 30% from last year.
December KC wheat made a new contract low yesterday at 6.44. A combination of poor export demand and speculative selling has caused recent weakness. However, wheat may be finding support at these lower levels, with all three US futures classes trading higher this morning.
Managed funds still hold a net short of over 100,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, but so far traders have not seen the catalyst needed to trigger a short covering rally.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With corn trading lower this morning, a close in negative territory this afternoon would be the fourth in a row. There has been little fresh news over the past few days to push the market higher, and crude oil slipping does not help the situation.
Brazil is said to have shipped about 6.5 mmt of corn in October, adding to pressure on US exports and thus the futures market.
The heavy rains this week in the central Midwest is causing harvest delays, and cold temperatures with snow in the northern Plains states are sure to do the same.
The 40 and 50 day moving averages on December corn are both around 4.85. With Dec corn breaking that support and currently trading below it, the 4.75 area may be the next support target.
December soybean meal made a new contract high overnight before fading back into negative territory this morning. Meal has been trending higher due to shortages in Argentina and concerns about weather in South America overall.
China reportedly signed contracts with US exporters for an unspecified amount of soybeans. Additionally, there was a flash sale today with private exporters reporting sales of 126,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
ADM’s CEO made a statement, thinking that by November, that Argentina will run out of soybeans to crush.
According to Anec, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 6.142 mmt in October 2023, compared with just 3.589 mmt in October 2022.
Russia continues to offer wheat for export more cheaply than any other origin. However, with few buyers right now, the lack of demand is weighing on the wheat market.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports have reached 8.56 mmt, but that is down significantly from 12.4 mmt at the same time last year.
Some of the drier areas in Argentina received a good shot of rain. Given the drought conditions, this could definitely help their wheat crop, and some analysts are beginning to increase production estimates.
Although there continues to be talks of Chinese interest in US soft wheat, so far, there has been no confirmation and no new announced sales.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
US corn harvest is now 59% complete, which is in line with last year, and ahead of the average of 54%.
Private exporters reported sales of 117,200 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The central Midwest is expected to receive healthy rains over the next 5-7 days. This should cause some harvest delays, but some of the states that are lagging farthest behind, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, are likely to miss the heavy rainfall.
So far, Argentina has planted about 18% of their corn crop. Their soybean planting typically begins in November, so the focus may begin to shift to that crop, causing the corn planting pace to slow until late November or early December.
Brazil’s corn planting progress has reached 63%, which is above the average of 58%.
US soybean harvest is now 76% complete, which is above the average, but below the last year’s pace of 78%.
Speculative traders are estimated to be short about 8,000 contracts in the soy complex, which would be their largest short position since March of 2020.
China may be looking to implement a fiscal stimulus plan to help their economic recovery. Only time will tell if it has any impact, however, it could mean more commodity demand down the road if their economic situation improves.
There are some scattered rains in Brazil’s forecast, however, no broad coverage over the next 10 days. The western and central areas of the country are in need of more moisture to avoid crop loss, but the southern regions have the opposite issue and continue to receive too much rain.
Brazil’s soybean planting progress has reached 29% complete, in line with the average, but behind the pace from the past couple of years.
US winter wheat is now 77% planted, which is in line with both last year and the average. Also, emergence has reached 53%, and crop conditions are expected to start being released next week. Conditions are expected to be better than last year due to the improved soil moisture in the southern Plains.
Ukraine’s ag ministry estimates that they have transported around 700,000 mt of ag goods through their humanitarian corridor to date. However, they believe that in theory it is possible to ship 2.0-2.5 mmt per month via that route. Grain also continues to export via the Danube river.
Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning. If they have a negative close, it would make three out of the last four sessions. This, along with a higher US Dollar Index this morning, have US wheat futures under pressure.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Crude oil slipped lower this morning, which may be putting some pressure on grains. This may be tied to the fact that Israeli forces did not launch a ground invasion into Gaza over the weekend because they are trying to get hostages out first. The high tensions are likely to keep the crude market volatile.
Harvest progress will be slowed this week as a large system moves across the Corn Belt, bringing heavy rain over the next several days.
After testing the 100 day moving average last week (around 5.09), December corn has since backed off and is trading below 5.00 again.
On this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, US corn harvest is expected to be past the halfway point, and perhaps as much as 60% complete.
Both soybean meal and oil were under pressure this morning, weighing on soybeans. Meal has since rallied, making a new daily high for the move, lending support to soybeans, but not enough to rally them above unchanged. Good rains in some of the dry areas of South America may be the culprit. Amazon River water levels remain historically low, however, so more rain will be needed to reverse the dry trend.
Feed demand from China should remain strong, with reports that there are 6.3% more hogs on large Chinese farms vs last year.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements at 106% vs the trade expectation of 98%, which could ultimately affect feed demand.
This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show US soybean harvest about 75% complete.
Both Argentina and Australia are said to have received beneficial rains in their wheat growing regions. Each of these nations has been struggling with drought, and while the moisture is welcomed, more will be needed.
There is some concern, globally, about lower protein wheat. This may explain why Minneapolis wheat futures are rallying and gaining versus both Chicago and Kansas City contracts.
There has been little fresh news out of the Black Sea area, but there are reports that as many as 20 vessels have traveled through Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor so far.
Some private analysts now see Australia’s total wheat crop between 26 and 28 mmt – for reference the USDA is estimating 24.5 mmt of production.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday with support coming from the wheat complex as global weather issues drive prices higher. December corn closed above 5 dollars yesterday for the first time in over two months.
There have been rumors of China looking to buy US corn out of the PNW despite Ukrainian offers that are cheaper, but shipping issues could be the reason that China is looking to the US.
Israel sent more rockets into Gaza last night as war and tension in the Middle East continues to ramp up with crude oil having a higher yet relatively mild reaction to the fighting.
The EIA reported that ethanol production and blending demand are both higher for the week with ethanol production at the highest levels in over a month, indicating strong demand.
Soybeans are slightly lower but have come back from their early morning lows which saw November futures down as much as 9 cents. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher along with crude.
Exports are still behind last year but are picking up, with last week’s sales a marketing year high at 50 mb. China has been a buyer with another sale of 4.85 mb announced yesterday.
Soybean meal has trended higher after the drought last season that severely cut Argentina’s soybean meal production and caused US exports of meal to increase significantly.
Some analysts are estimating that Brazil will produce another massive soybean crop this year with guesses between 162-164 mmt, but so far the weather has been too dry, causing planting to be delayed, and the overall weather pattern doesn’t look great at this point.
Wheat is leading the grain complex today, offering support to corn as major wheat producing countries deal with adverse weather that could impact global supplies.
Rumors continue to circulate that China is purchasing more soft red wheat from the US which could be true considering that Ukraine is having difficulty exporting, and that China has been a more active buyer of both US corn and soybeans.
The Brazilian 23/24 wheat crop is seen at just 10.5 mmt, down 5.9% from the previous estimate due to dryness. Argentina’s wheat crop is now rated 47% poor to very poor due to drought, up 5 points from last week.
The Australian wheat crop is expected to fall by 40% to 45% this year due to drought, and India’s production is expected to fall as well, which may cause them to become a net importer.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is a bit stronger near midday with December trading slightly higher to the deferred months, as the overall pattern remains mostly rangebound, and December corn being unable to move above 5 dollars.
Other than some light showers from Illinois through to Indiana, the Corn Belt is mostly dry and should allow for good harvest progress this week.
For today’s export sales, the USDA reported an increase of 34.7 mb of corn for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25, both in line with expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 20.3 mb were below the 40.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.
China has been purchasing the bulk of its corn from Brazil, but Chinese imports have fallen significantly with corn imports down 10% from a year ago in the January through September period, a decline of 653 mb.
Soybeans began the day higher but have slipped despite a good export sales report. November found resistance at the 100-day moving average near $13.17. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower due to losses in palm and crude oil.
This morning, the USDA reported an increase of 50.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, which was in line with expectations. Top purchasers were China, Spain, and Mexico.
Last week’s export shipments of 73.1 mb were well above the 34.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations, and top destinations were also to China, Mexico, and Spain.
Brazilian grain exporters are being forced to re-route some cargoes of grain as the drought lowers water levels on Amazonian rivers causing barges to get stuck.
Wheat is mixed near midday with Chicago trading higher, but KC and Minneapolis are lower. Trade is looking for China to purchase more US wheat, but so far none has come across the wire.
The Australian wheat crop is expected to fall by 40% to 45% this year due to drought, and India’s production is expected to fall as well, which may cause them to become a net importer.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 23.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 1.1 mb for 24/25, both on the high side of expectations.
Last week’s export shipments of 14.1 mb were just above the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and top destinations were to Japan, Nigeria, and South Korea.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Grain markets opened higher this morning as more war premium was factored in following an attack on a hospital in Gaza that increased tension in the Middle East. President Biden is in Israel to offer support, but due to the attack, some of his meetings were cancelled.
The US weather forecast two weeks out, is calling for rain in the Midwest. Though it will not be enough to help with the navigation issues on the Mississippi River, rain will still likely cause some harvest delays.
As of this writing, crude oil futures are up over a dollar per barrel due to the uncertainty in the Middle East, which is supporting corn and soybean futures. Iran has reportedly proposed an embargo of oil shipments to Israel.
ANEC is estimating that Brazil’s October corn shipments will total 8.5 mmt, as compared to 6.2 mmt last year.
Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Chinese GDP data for the third quarter came in at 4.9%, 0.5% higher than expected. This is bolstering Asian markets and may be in part why US grain futures opened higher this morning.
Despite the record September crush shown in this week’s NOPA report, stocks of soybean oil were much lower than anticipated, indicating strong biofuel demand.
As Argentina is struggling with drought, US soybean meal exports have risen to a 20-year high at 10.7 mmt. However, soybean export sales are still down 32% from a year ago, leaving some room for improvement.
Despite the drought in western Australia, wheat yields so far are coming in slightly better than what the USDA is forecasting. In any case, most analysts are looking for a drop in their production by 40% or more.
India’s domestic wheat prices have reached an eight-month high. With their food inflation on the rise, some analysts think India will be forced to eliminate import taxes in order to tame prices.
This morning, Paris milling wheat futures are higher for the fourth out of the past five sessions. But with French and US wheat priced the same in the export market for Nov – Jan, there is talk that China may be looking to buy more US wheat. This year so far, China’s wheat imports are up 54% from last year, at 10.2 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday as it remains in its slight uptrend on the daily chart but with resistance at the 5-dollar level in December. Some support is coming from hot and dry conditions in South America.
Crop progress showed the corn harvest at 45% complete, which was in line with expectations but a bit slow for the week as rains delayed field work. 95% of the corn crop is mature.
There is little in the way of fresh news since Thursday’s WASDE report, and although conflict between Israel and Hamas is escalating, it has not seemed to have had much effect on the markets.
Export inspections were mediocre yesterday at 17 mb as most of the corn export business seems contained to North America with Mexico picking up another 7.9 mb yesterday.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday with support from soybean meal and the hot and dry conditions in South America. Prices have continued to move higher following the WASDE report last week.
The Crop Progress report showed harvest at 62% completed, which is 10% above the 5-year average with Iowa and Illinois leading the pace at 74% and 61% respectively. Good to excellent ratings improved by 1 point.
The NOPA crush report showed 165.456 mb of soybeans crushed in September, higher than expectations and a new record for the month.
Crush margins have begun to improve which should give a boost to demand, and in yesterday’s NOPA report, it was revealed that soybean oil stocks are at the lowest levels since 2014 at 1.108 billion pounds.
Wheat is mixed at midday but has come back from early morning lows with only the Chicago contract trading lower. Trade is looking for another purchase of soft red wheat by China from the US.
Crop progress showed that winter wheat seeding is now 68% complete in the US, which is in line with the 5-year average with Kansas now 70% planted. 39% of the crop is emerged, 4 points below average.
Wheat prices in India rose to a an 8-month high today as they deal with a limited supply on weather problems and higher demand than anticipated.
Wheat harvest in Brazil is beginning, but rains in major wheat growing areas are concerning growers and could see output cut by 3.3% despite the total growing area being 12.1% larger than last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday following a higher open in the overnight on harvest pressure and potentially some risk-off mentality with the direction of the war between Israel and Hamas relatively unknown.
Last week in the US, harvest was delayed a bit due to rains covering most of the Midwest, but the 7-day forecast is looking very dry, and good progress will likely be made in the coming week.
Focus is beginning to shift to South American weather with Argentina still very dry from last season along with northern Brazil, while southern Brazil is too wet. Plantings are around 35% complete in the main growing area of Mato Grosso.
Crop progress will be released later today, and the expectations are that the corn harvest will be between 45 and 47% complete.
Soybeans have been slipping since their higher open overnight and slight gains earlier this morning and are currently trading near unchanged. Soybean meal is lower, but soybean oil is steadily higher with support from higher palm oil prices.
Palm oil is higher for the third consecutive day with exports for Malaysian palm oil significantly higher. Soybean oil in the US is benefitting from strong domestic demand in the way of renewable diesel.
The September NOPA crush report will be released today, and estimates are calling for 161.7 mb of soybeans crushed which compares to 161.5 mb in August. If these estimates are correct, it would be a record large crush for September.
As with corn, some attention is shifting to South American weather and planting. Slight showers are forecast for the dry areas of Argentina and Brazil later in the week, but so far planting has not gotten off to a good start with conditions either too dry or too wet. A main river in the Amazon is dealing with backed up barge traffic due to low water levels from the drought.
Wheat has slipped from its gains this morning with Chicago and KC now trading lower, while Minneapolis remains slightly higher. The trend in wheat has moved higher following unexpected sales of wheat to China.
Last week, a flash sale of 181,000 mt of soft red wheat was sold to China, and now there are rumors that China is seeking more US, French, and Australian wheat. This sales activity is interesting given their relationship with Russia and Russia’s large wheat supplies.
The Russian wheat crop has yet again been estimated higher by IKAR to 141.6 mmt, but in Argentina, production is being estimated lower at 16.2 mmt. Australia’s production in being called 35% lower than last year due to drought.
Heavy rains are forecast to hit China’s largest grain producing areas over the next 10 days, which will mainly affect wheat and corn crops. This adverse weather could be behind China’s purchases from the US and France.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
