Corn is trading lower this morning after the negative tone on yesterday’s USDA report. However, the December contract so far is holding support today at 460, so the sideways trend may have simply been shifted lower until the market knows more about South American production.
Brazil weather looks to remain warm and dry in the central and northern areas until about November 21, after which both the American and European weather models have rain in the forecast. Those areas do need rain, but this could result in premium being taken out of the market.
Chairman Powell spoke yesterday with a more hawkish tone, indicating that the Fed may actually be more aggressive in fighting inflation. This is in contrast to the more dovish comments after the FOMC meeting. This has put some uncertainty into the financial markets, which may spill over into grains.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 25% of Argentina’s corn crop is now planted. Conditions there have improved significantly over the past few weeks. They are expected to receive more rain this weekend.
The USDA left Chinese demand at 100 mmt, but with the recent announced sales that number may need to be adjusted down the road. The big question is, if there is a shift in Brazil’s weather pattern, will China stop buying US soybeans?
Yesterday’s announced sale of 67.2 mb of soybeans sold to China was the seventh largest daily total on record.
March soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange remain expensive, around the equivalent of $16.36 per bushel. This was down about 1.4% Friday, but still remains near this year’s high price.
Despite weather issues, the USDA left their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop unchanged at 163.0 mmt. For reference, CONAB is using a crop of 162.4 mmt.
This coming Wednesday, President Biden is set to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping for a summit in the San Francisco area. This will be their first in-person meeting in a year, and they aim to reduce their rivalry and tensions between the two nations.
On yesterday’s report, the USDA did lower the Indian and Argentine wheat crops but raised the Russian crop as well as Ukraine exports.
In the face of reports early this week that a Russian missile hit a merchant ship in the Black Sea, there are said to still be about 30 vessels in Ukrainian ports waiting to load cargo.
Despite the USDA’s slight increase in their ending stocks projection to 684 mb for 23/24, it is still the second lowest number in 10 years. Additionally, excluding China, the world ending stocks at 4.58 bb is the lowest estimate in 15 years. These factors should provide some support for wheat, which could result in a short covering rally for the funds (who still hold a large net short position).
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the 23/24 wheat crop production is still at 15.4 mmt, but harvest has advanced to 14.4% complete, vs 9.3% last week.
On a bearish note, a vessel carrying 35,000 mt of French wheat is reported to be headed for New York. This comes after the USDA increased their estimate of US wheat imports to 145 mb (the highest level in 6 years).
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 40.0 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 32.5 mb were below the 41.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.025 bb for 23/24.
Brazil looks mostly dry for the next 10 days, with temperatures in some areas expected to exceed 100 degrees.
Falling energy prices over the past several sessions are raising concern about ethanol and biofuel margins.
December corn remains in a narrow trading range. The 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages all converge around 4.83. This may be an important resistance level, but if broken, it could allow corn to rally.
The USDA reported an increase of 39.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 82.2 mb were above the 31.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.755 bb for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 1,044,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China and 662,500 mt for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Despite the current dry pattern Brazil has some rain in the second week of the forecast, days 11-15. It remains to be seen if that rain materializes, but the change to the pattern is offering some weakness to the soybean market, with likely profit taking as well.
CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production by 400,000 mt to 162.4 mmt, similar to the current USDA estimate. However, private group Ag Resource, decreased their estimate to 156.5 mmt.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 4.9 mb were below the 14.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb for 23/24.
Yesterday there was talk that a Russian missile struck a vessel in the Black Sea. The reaction in the wheat market has since cooled, with all three US wheats trading lower this morning.
December Chicago wheat hit the highest level in two weeks, yesterday. It is currently trading about 40 cents above the September contract low of 5.40 but needs some friendly news to break out of the sideways to lower pattern.
Vladimir Putin stated that Russia will have 60 mmt of wheat to export in the coming year. This is about 10 mmt higher than most estimates. If Russia’s estimate of a 93 mmt crop is to be believed, however, this could also be true.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
This morning grain markets are recovering after yesterday’s risk off session that was caused by negative Chinese economic data, lower energy prices, and concern about US debt.
Private exporters reported sales of 270,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The average pre-report estimate for US corn yield comes in at 173.2 bpa vs 173.0 bpa in October. The average production number is pegged at 15.076 bb, up slightly from 15.064 bb last month.
The pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout is 2.129 bb, up slightly from 2.111 bb in October. And the world 23/24 ending stocks projection is 312.0 mmt vs 312.4 mmt last month.
The weather forecast for Brazil is now turning drier and hotter. They have already been struggling and this is causing planting to slow for both corn and soybeans.
The USDA announced that private exporters reported sales of 433,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China and 132,000 mt for delivery to unknown, both during the 23/24 marketing year. The USDA also reported an additional set of sales to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year totaling 344,500 mt as “received in the reporting period.”
The average pre-report estimate for US soybean yield comes in at 49.5 bpa vs 49.6 bpa in October. The average production number is pegged at 4.098 bb, down slightly from 4.104 bb last month.
The pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout is 221 mb, up from 220 mb in October. And the world 23/24 ending stocks projection is 115.6 mmt, unchanged from last month.
Yesterday Paraguay saw temperatures between 100-115 degrees, and now that hot air is expected to move into central Brazil, adding to problems there.
Soybean meal made a new contract high yesterday, and another this morning. As of this writing December meal’s high for today is 464.20. This continues to offer support for soybean futures.
The pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is 670 mb, unchanged from October. And the world 23/24 ending stocks projection is 257.9 mmt, down slightly from 258.1 mmt last month.
There is more concern about US wheat demand, with recent tenders to Jordan and Algeria likely fulfilled at lower prices by Russia.
Tomorrow’s report is not expected to have much change in the wheat numbers, but the USDA could lower the Argentina crop by 1-2 mmt. They could potentially also raise the Russian crop and Russian exports.
According to Ukraine’s ministry of agriculture, their grain exports from July 1 to November 6 have totaled 9.8 mmt, but that is down from 14.3 mmt for the same timeframe last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Southern Brazil has recently seen relief from heavy rains, but the next wave is forecast to hit at the end of the week and into the weekend, potentially causing more flooding and crop damage. Dry northern areas did get some beneficial precipitation this past weekend, but it looks like they will return to a dry and warm pattern.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA said that 81% of the corn crop is harvested, above the average of 77% but below 85% at this time last year.
Crude oil is currently trading lower, and below $80 per barrel. There seems to be less concern about the conflict in the Middle East affecting the flow of oil, and this is the first time it has been below the $80 level since late August. This may be in part what is weighing on corn this morning.
About two thirds of Brazil’s first corn crop is planted, but with the weather issues they are facing, there is concern that a significant amount will need to be replanted.
Private exporters reported sales of 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
This morning, December soybean meal made a new contract high, offering support to soybean futures.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA said 91% of the soybean crop is harvested, above the average of 86% but below 93% at this time last year.
Customs data showed Chinese soybean imports in October at 5.2 mmt. That represents a 28% decrease from September but is up 25% from October last year. Year to date, imports have reached 82.5 mmt, which is up 14.5% year on year.
Yesterday’s wheat inspections at 2.6 mb were an all-time low for this time of year for records going back to 1983.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA said 90% of the winter wheat crop is planted, above the average of 89% but down slightly from last year at 91%.
With 75% of the winter wheat crop emerged, the USDA rated the crop at 50% good to excellent, up 3% from last week, and well above the 30% rating at this time last year.
Russia continues to offer cheap wheat for export and that is limiting upside potential for the US market. With Russia estimating their crop higher than the USDA number, it is possible that there could be a revision on Thursday’s report that would further dampen upward price movement.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales of 289,575 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
Crude oil is higher this morning, possibly due to talk that both Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed supply cuts. This may in turn offer support to the grain markets.
In Brazil, poor emergence of the safrinha corn crop may result in the need for replanting. This may affect total production because the replant will take place during a less optimal timeframe.
December corn may have formed a double bottom chart pattern on Friday. Additionally, stochastics are showing a buy crossover signal in the oversold region. Both of these technical indicators point to a potential upside in corn futures.
Cold weather and snowstorms in northeastern China are causing corn harvest delays. This could also affect drying, storage, and transport logistics of grain.
Private exporters reported sales of 126,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Northern and central Brazil look to remain mostly dry over the next 10 days, while southern Brazil is still getting too much rain. Due to the weather issues, it is being said that they may need to replant as much as 20%-30% of their soybean crop. According to Ag Rural, their planting is currently 51% complete (down from the average 57%).
Currently, US soybeans (vs Brazil) are competitive to China December forward, until the March timeframe when Brazil’s harvest begins.
Although conditions have improved in Argentina with recent rains, their supply of old crop soybeans is still limited, which should keep US meal demand strong.
Brazil’s supply of feed wheat is large at 2.5 mmt and is competitive on exports, said to be around $212 per mt FOB for December shipment.
With wheat trading both sides of neutral this morning, the market seems to have brushed off news of a new Russian attack on Odessa that caused damage to the port and wounded eight people.
The current USDA estimate of the Russian wheat crop stands at 85 mmt. However, Russia’s estimate last week comes in at 93 mmt. It is possible that the USDA will make a revision on this week’s WASDE report.
The US Dollar Index gapped lower last week and is now well below the recent high (which was over 107). If the downtrend continues it should offer support to the wheat market, as exports become more competitive.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday after coming within a tick of the September low at 4.68 in December. Support is coming from a decline in the dollar and higher soybeans and wheat.
Yesterday, the USDA reported corn export sales at 29.5 mb which was on the low side, and Mexico was a top buyer picking up more than half of the total sales.
Outside markets are also supporting the grain complex today with the Dow higher after the Jobs report was released that showed 150,000 jobs added in October which was less than expected. This may keep the Fed from raising interest rates in December.
After reports of better-than-expected yields in some areas, StoneX has increased their estimate for the national corn yield to 175.7 bpa. This is higher than the USDA’s guess, but this could point to the USDA decreasing their estimate in next week’s WASDE report.
Soybeans are firmly higher again today following yesterday’s gain of 13 cents in the January contract. Jan beans broke out above their 100-day moving average and reached their highest level since September 18.
January soybean meal is up 1.37% on strong export demand, and soybean oil is higher as well despite lower crude today. The lower US dollar and higher equity market is likely supporting the entire soy complex.
Private exporters reported sales of 131,150 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
In Brazil, many soybean growing areas are still too dry, and there have been some reports of large fields of recently planted soybeans being ripped up in order to plant cotton instead. This would also limit those areas from plantings of corn.
Wheat is higher today as Chicago rebounds from oversold technicals, and KC and Minneapolis wheat rebound from contract lows. The lower US dollar is supportive for wheat.
FAO-AMIS has cut its estimate of the world wheat stockpiles for 23/24 to 315.1 mmt which is down from last month’s 319.3 mmt.
Despite Australia’s smaller-than-anticipated wheat crop due to drought, China has been an active buyer as it leaves US wheat as a last resort.
Ukrainian food exports have risen by 15% in October to 4.8 mmt due to the creation of their own humanitarian corridor which primarily shipped grains to Europe and Africa.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher today but is struggling to gain much momentum as harvest accelerates with a clear 7-day forecast.
Today’s export sales report showed increases of 29.5 mb for 23/24, which was within trade expectations. Shipments of 19.9 mb were well below the 41.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimated 2.025 bb.
StoneX has raised their estimates of the US corn yield amid reports of better-than-expected yields, with their estimate now sitting at 175.7 bpa from 175.5 bpa previously.
Yesterday, the US Department of Energy said that ethanol stocks fell by 1.8% to 21.012m bbl, and analyst expectations were 21.402. Production was slightly higher than the survey averages.
Soybeans are trading higher near midday, but have slipped a bit from their highs earlier in the day which saw prices at the top of the trading range. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
Soybean export sales were good for 23/24 at 37.1 mb, which was within trade expectations. Export shipments were very large last week at 73.2 mb, which was well above the 32.6 mb needed each week.
Chinese imports have been very strong with imports over the past three months estimated at 26 mmt and total imports at 105 mmt, which would be a record according to trade groups in China.
StoneX has lowered their estimate for the national soybean yield to 50.3 bpa from 50.4 bpa a month ago with production falling by 13 mb. These estimates are still higher than the USDA’s most recent guess.
All three wheat products are trading higher today, but KC and Minneapolis wheat are still near their contract lows as poor export sales suppress prices.
US export sales for the week ending October 26 were 10.1 mb for 23/24, which was below the low end of the average trade range. Shipments were very poor at 3.7 mb, which is well below the average 14.2 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s estimate of 700 mb.
Despite Australia’s smaller than anticipated wheat crop due to drought, China has been an active buyer as it leaves US wheat as a last resort.
Russia continues to dominate global exports offering wheat as cheap as $230 per metric ton. US hard red winter wheat export sales are over 35% lower than a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday and has dropped below the bottom range of the recent trading range. March corn is currently just 5 cents above its contract low.
US ethanol output last week rose to an 11-week high, reaching normal to above normal levels for the date. Ethanol stocks at 21M barrels last week is the lowest for any week since December 2021.
In South America, rain chances are improved for northern Brazil and Argentina, but Mato Grosso, a key soybean growing area in central Brazil, has remained very dry.
US corn offers out of the Gulf are now at parity with Brazil, but demand has been sluggish anyway with little activity from China and the bulk of exports to Mexico.
Soybeans are trading higher today with support from soybean oil, but soybean prices remain rangebound and will likely need more bullish news to break out of the range.
Crude oil is trading higher as the fighting between Israel and Hamas escalates. Israel is in the middle of a ground invasion in Gaza, and US bases in Syria and Iraq have reportedly been the target of drone attacks.
NOPA crush numbers will be released later today with the average trade estimate at 175 mb. This would be above the 169 mb crushed in August and also above the 167.6 mb a year ago.
ANEC has reported that Brazilian soy shipments in October are likely to be near 6 mmt which compares to 3.6 mmt just a year ago as they primarily ship to China.
Wheat is mostly higher with the front months gaining on the deferreds in all three classes. Minneapolis wheat has sold off significantly and is only a few cents off its contract lows.
Russia continues to dominate global exports offering wheat at a cheap $230 per metric ton. US hard red winter wheat export sales are over 35% lower than a year ago.
There have been early reports that China has purchased 2 mmt of wheat from Australia and 2.5 mmt of French wheat after 20% of China’s wheat crop was reportedly damaged by flooding.
Argentina recently got some relief with showers in key areas, but the US attaché there is projecting that Argentinian wheat production could slip to 14.5 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher near midday, with prices closer to the upper end of the day’s range. December corn has traded lower for 6 of the past 7 trading days after failing at the 100-day moving average at 5.09.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report said that 71% of the corn harvest is complete, which is 5 points higher than the 5-year average. Illinois is 81% complete and Iowa is 77% complete.
In South America, weather in Argentina and central and northern Brazil has been too dry for seeding, but rain chances are now improving. Southern Brazil has been too wet however and heavy rains continue to be forecast.
There has been some support from the ethanol market with ethanol margins now at the best levels since 2021 and production climbing. The USDA Co-Products report said that corn processing values were at $8.56 per bushel in the eastern belt.
Soybeans have been rangebound for over a week and are trading higher today, near the upper end of their trading range. More favorable South American weather forecasts have been negative while demand has been supportive.
Yesterday, soybean meal gave back all of the gains from the previous day due to overbought technicals and profit taking, but export demand remains firm for meal which should continue to support soybeans.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean harvest at 85% complete which is above the 5-year average of 78%. Illinois is 89% complete and Iowa is 93% complete.
November soybeans expire on November 14, but there have already been 438 deliveries against the November contract, higher than expected.
All three wheat products are lower today, but KC wheat has taken the brunt of the selloff over the past few months. The lack of export demand has been a big bearish factor.
Russia continues to dominate global exports offering wheat at a cheap $230 per metric ton. US hard red winter wheat export sales are over 35% lower than a year ago.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 84% of the crop has been planted with 64% emerged, on track with its average pace. The USDA also said that 47% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 28% last year.
China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year due to damage to their crop, and they have been purchasing large amounts of Australian and French wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower to begin the week with little fresh news to go on. Over the weekend, Israel launched a ground operation into Gaza, but it hasn’t had much impact on the markets.
US export demand has been decent with sales and shipments up 24% from last year with Mexico picking up the bulk of business. In addition, domestic demand has been good with profitable ethanol margins and increased production.
The El Nino pattern in Brazil that is causing the dry weather pattern is delaying the seedings of soybeans which in turn could delay the planting of second crop corn.
Friday’s CFTC report saw non-commercials offsetting some of their short position by buying back 8,440 contracts which reduced their net short position to 100,430 contracts as of October 24.
Soybeans began trading higher in the overnight session but slipped into the open and are now slightly lower, led by weaker soybean meal. Despite escalations in the Middle East, crude oil has moved lower and has added pressure to the soy complex.
A significant portion of the support in soybeans lately has been from the explosive bean meal market which made new contract highs as exports are now expected to reach a record large 13.9 mmt by the year end, proof that the US did get business from Argentina’s short soy crop last season.
Soybean oil is under pressure from lower world veg oils and lower crude oil. Many analysts expect that further escalation of the war could cause crude oil to rally near 100 dollars a barrel.
Friday’s CFTC report saw non-commercials switching from a net short position to a net long one after buying 10,207 contracts which now leaves them net long 7,753 contracts.
Wheat began the day lower with KC making new contract lows, but the complex has since shifted with KC and Minneapolis higher, while Chicago remains lower.
Russia’s Ag Ministry is now forecasting their wheat crop at 93.0 mmt which is far above the USDA’s previous guess of 85.0 mmt. Russia also continues to dominate export sales.
In Ukraine, ships have begun moving through their Black Sea shipping corridor again after there was a brief pause in traffic due to potential explosives. Most of the products are headed to Europe and Africa.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials exiting a portion of their short position and buying back 12,153 contracts which reduced their net short position to 92,254 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
