Corn is trading lower to start the week following Friday’s WASDE report which revealed essentially no changes to corn production or outlook.
The USDA increased corn exports slightly in the report by 25 mb as demand has picked up, but the large ending stocks number of 2.13 billion bushels continues to pressure futures.
Over the weekend, it was reported that China would produce a record 288.8 mmt of corn this year which is up 4% from the previous year, but they will still need imports to meet their needs.
Weather in Brazil has improved with a generally more favorable forecast through January, but the crop is about 2 to 3 weeks behind due to the earlier hot and dry weather. The USDA still expects Brazilian production at 129 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher today with support from both soybean meal and oil, along with a flash sale reported this morning to China.
This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
On Friday, prices slipped following a neutral WASDE report, but the fact that ending stocks remain so tight at 245 mb has supported the market. A reduction in Brazilian production to 161 mmt was slightly supportive.
South American soybeans are expected to benefit from improved rain chances, along with corn, into next year with heavier rains forecast in the central and northern regions.
Wheat is trading lower today after an impressive rally recently that was caused by a large net short position held by the funds and purchases of US wheat by China.
Short covering was a big reason for the rally in wheat recently, and if Chinese purchases don’t continue, funds may continue adding to their short positions again.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 23,764 contracts of wheat which brought their net short position to 96,222 contracts.
Ukraine is expecting to harvest a record 59.7 mmt of grain with wheat making up 22.2 mmt. The ongoing struggle will be safely exporting their grain.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported private exporter sales of 165,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
March corn continues to be in a relatively sideways trading range. The key to price direction will likely be just how much corn China purchases from the US going forward.
Today’s unemployment report showed that the US economy added 199,000 jobs (above expectations) and unemployment fell to 3.7%. This could affect Fed policy going forward, as they may maintain the policy on interest rates of higher for longer.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, corn planting in Argentina is 40.3% complete.
The USDA reported private exporter sales of 136,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Brazil’s weather forecast continues to show more rain in the second week of the forecast, but is dry for the first week. This has been a continued pattern; as time advances, the rains are less than initially forecasted.
Higher palm oil and crude oil this morning are supporting soybean oil, and thus, soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil was up over 1% Friday, and on the Chinese Dalian exchange, both soybean and palm oil were higher as well.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, soybean planting in Argentina is 52% done. They also said that the crop condition is 36% good to excellent.
The USDA reported private exporters’ sales of 110,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
The US southern Plains are expected to receive good rains mid next week, with the forecast calling for anywhere between 0.75 and 2.00 inches. This could limit upside potential in the wheat market a bit.
After eight higher closes in a row, March Chicago wheat is trading lower this morning. This could be some profit taking after the recent run higher. However, with another sale to China, mentioned above, it could spark some more buying interest and fund short covering.
Egypt’s wheat tender was fulfilled by Russia for 420,000 mt, and they paid $260 per mt FOB. France would have been second in line at $268 per mt FOB offer.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is said to now be 48.2% complete.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 50.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25.
The 50 day moving average for March corn is at about 4.94 and remains a resistance level, with March futures remaining below the moving average since October 24th.
CONAB lowered their Brazilian corn production estimate by about 1 mmt to 118.5 mmt. This is well below the last USDA estimate of 129 mmt.
Yesterday’s ethanol data showed production at 1.076 million barrels per day, which was up 65,000 from last week. This is the highest in 5 months and now above pace to meet the USDA’s goal for ethanol grind.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is 2.157 bb, versus 2.156 bb in November.
The USDA reported an increase of 55.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24.
The USDA also reported private export sales of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Customs data from China showed 7.9 mmt of soybean imports in November. This is up 8% from last year, and year to date imports are up 13% from last year at about 90 mmt so far.
CONAB lowered their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 2 mmt to 160 mmt. For reference, the last USDA estimate was 163 mmt.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is 242 mb, versus 245 mb in November.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a reduction of 0.3 mb for 24/25.
With the recent US wheat sales to China, the USDA export goal of 700 mb may be too low. This will likely not be reflected in tomorrow’s WASDE report, but that number could be raised by 15-25 mb down the road.
Egypt is tendering for more wheat – at this time Russia remains the cheapest offer, around $260 per ton FOB.
March Chicago wheat did eke out a positive close yesterday and was also above the 100 day moving average. At midday today, it is trading lower, but has come well off session lows. If it can manage another close in the green, that would be the eighth higher session in a row.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is 684 mb, unchanged from November.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday, after closing higher for five days in a row. Perhaps today is a correction. However, there could also be concern that Friday’s WASDE report will bring little change to the corn carryout, keeping it over 2.1 bb.
There are rumors that China may have switched up to 10 cargoes of Brazilian corn to the US.
Continued rain in the southern region of Brazil may limit production on their first corn crop in that area and could lead to a reduction from the 129 mmt crop on this week’s report.
Despite some of the logistic issues on rivers and at the Panama Canal, Brazil has still managed to export a record amount of corn in November.
Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
There are rumors that China purchased an additional 3-4 cargoes of US soybeans for the January / February timeframe.
Central Brazil looks like it will receive more consistent rain starting on Friday, and the rain could benefit their soybean crop in some of the drier areas.
This Friday’s WASDE report could see a revision higher for the Argentina soybean crop from the last estimate of 48.0 mmt due to conditions turning more favorable.
This morning, the USDA reported private exporter’s sales totaling 372,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
March Chicago wheat is currently trading above the 100 day moving average. A close above would be the first time since the end of July.
Egypt is reported to have purchased wheat from Russia and Ukraine overnight.
Drought in the southwestern US Plains is a concern as winter wheat heads into dormancy, but conditions are better than they were at the same time last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
US corn exports to date are up 33% from last year, vs the USDA’s estimate of a 22% increase. So far, there have not been significant Chinese purchases. However, with the funds holding a large short position, if China begins to buy US corn or more weather issues develop in South America, it could trigger a year end rally.
Exports of corn from Brazil have been reduced due to slow farmer selling, as well as logistic issues on Amazon River ports. Low water levels on the Panama Canal are also causing problems.
Managed funds are said to be holding a net short position in corn of 212,000 contracts as of November 28. This would be the largest short position since June of 2020.
France has increased the risk level of bird flu from moderate to high. New cases of the disease were detected there, and it has reportedly been spreading through several European nations recently. Depending on the severity of the spread, and how many birds are culled, this could eventually affect demand for feed grain.
The cumulative rainfall for the drier areas of Brazil may be disappointing over the next few days, but longer range forecasts continue to show improving conditions by mid-month. With South American weather still one of the dominant fundamental factors right now, this could continue to weigh on futures prices.
Open interest in soybeans declined by about 14,000 contracts yesterday. This may suggest that the funds are lightening up on their long positions.
Brazil soybean planting has reached 85% complete as of the end of November, but that is down from 91% at the same time last year.
On a bullish note, the agricultural agency in Mato Grosso (Brazil) reduced the size of their state’s soybean crop by 3.78% to 42.13 mmt versus last year, that represents a 7% decline.
Private exporters reported sales of 198,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This is in addition to yesterday’s announced 440,000 mt (their largest purchase in three years). These sales may be triggering further fund short covering.
Stats Canada’s wheat estimate was bearish, with production coming in at 31.954 mmt, which was higher than both last month and the trade expectation.
ABARE increased their estimate of Australian wheat production to 25.5 mmt, which is 1 mmt higher than the USDA number.
India’s wheat import duty is currently 40%. However, they are considering reducing that to 15%-20% to import up to 1 mmt of Russian wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower today due to better-than-expected rains in Brazil over the weekend. Argentina received beneficial rains as well, and it appears that the worst of the El Nino pattern is over.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 267,044 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
So far, there have been 652 corn contracts delivered against the December futures which expire on December 14, and this has put some pressure on the corn market.
With U.S. corn the cheapest feed grain in the world and finally competitive with Brazil, export demand has improved, and export sales are now 33% above a year ago.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher today after breaking lower in the overnight below the low end of the recent trading range as a result of wet South American weather.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 183,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 23/24 marketing year.
Both soybean meal and oil are higher today after the Crush report was released and showed the crush for October at 201.1 mb, which was a record large monthly crush.
Ag Resource has reported that 82% of the soybeans in Brazil have been planted, which is 10 points below the 5-year average. Weather has improved significantly, which should help out the soybeans already planted.
Wheat is leading the grain complex higher today after a surprise sale to China was announced and funds continue to cover their large net short position.
Private exporters reported a flash sale of 440,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Ukrainian exports of grain are down 33% for the year so far, with only 5.8 mmt of wheat exported. In addition, recent comments from Russia has trade wondering if the country may be running low on supplies.
Wheat production in southwestern Argentina is expected to be lower by 27% from last season at around 2.8 mmt due to a lack of rain.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mixed today following yesterday’s strong gains. Good export sales were supportive yesterday while the looming prospect of big ending stocks has added resistance.
Weather in Argentina has improved significantly from last year, and normal to higher production is expected. Brazilian weather is also forecast to improve but the first corn crop is still reportedly 2 to 3 weeks behind.
Argentinian corn is now 32% planted and their corn crop is estimated at 55 mmt which would be more than double last year’s production.
Both US domestic and export demand has been a bullish point, and corn used in ethanol production is now seen up 0.9% year over year to 452.7.
Soybeans are trading lower today largely due to pressure from soybean meal as traders anticipate a decline in export demand. Soybean oil is trading lower as well.
Private exporters reported flash sales this morning of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year, and 198,000 mt to unknown destinations.
The US soybean crush is estimated to jump to a record 201.1 million bushels, while soybean oil stocks are expected to decline for a sixth straight month, according to a survey of analysts ahead of the USDA’s monthly report.
Some analysts are revising their production estimates for Brazilian soybeans lower with consultancy Patria Agroegocios lowering their estimate to 150.67 mmt from 154.10 mmt. This would be a 2.2% drop from last year.
The wheat complex is trading mixed to start the month and appear to have made a bottom this past Monday following good export sales this past week.
There have been a significant number of deliveries against KC and Chicago wheat over the past 2 days with 1,725 contracts against Chicago and 255 against KC.
Yesterday’s export sales report which showed 22.9 mb of sales for wheat last week was encouraging, and China was listed as a buyer.
There are rumors that French ports are loading wheat for China and that France has sold a total of 2.5 mmt of wheat to China for the December through March timeframe.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher today following good export sales and is also likely gaining support from short covering as the month comes to a close.
For the week ending November 23, the USDA reported an increase of 75.9 million bushels of corn export sales for 23/24. This was on the higher end of analyst expectations and 33% higher than a year ago.
Last week’s corn export shipments of 19.7 mb were below the 43.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and Panama.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly report, ethanol stocks fell by 1.3% to 21.379m bbl and analysts were expecting 21.575. Plant production was slightly lower than the average guess.
Soybeans are trading lower today under pressure from both soybean meal and oil along with better rain chances in South America.
For the week ending November 23, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 69.6 million bushels of soybean export sales, which were above the upper range of expectations but still down 17% from the previous year.
Last week’s export shipments of 54.3 mb were above the 28.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Vietnam.
Soybeans have been supported lately due to very tight ending stocks and a growing market for renewable diesel as well as good domestic crush demand.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with March gaining about 38 cents from the contract low that was put in early this week as funds short cover into the end of the month.
For the week ending November 23, the USDA reported an increase of 22.9 million bushels of wheat export sales for 2023-24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 2024-25. Exports were slightly better than expectations but down 6% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 12.5 mb were below the 15.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to the Philippines, Mexico, and Taiwan.
Yesterday, the CME announced 100 deliveries of December KC wheat and 1,347 deliveries of December Chicago wheat. No deliveries were reported for corn.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mostly higher today after prices took out yesterday’s low to make a new contract low. Large US production combined with the expectation of large South American production has pressured prices.
Argentinian weather has been more favorable with widespread showers passing through this week, but Brazil has remained drier than usual causing delays to soy planting which would delay second crop corn.
Demand has been good for US corn with export sales running 25% above a year ago thanks to Mexico being a primary buyer, and domestic demand has been good as well.
Brazil is reportedly running 8 to 10 days behind its usual pace of soybean planting at 74% complete, which is slated to delay both the soy harvest and the planting of second crop corn.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower today but remain near the center of their recent trading range. Improved South American weather has kept prices from rallying further.
According to MB Agro, Brazil has already gone through the worst parts of the El Nino weather pattern, but the initial planting delays could still impact total production.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today, but overall, crush margins have been improving which has helped support domestic demand.
Yesterday, a flash sale of 4.5 mb of soybeans was announced to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year, and now rumors have been circulating about another 4 to 8 cargoes that may have been purchased by China.
Wheat is also mostly higher today with Chicago and KC firmly higher but Minn lagging behind. Reports of crop destruction in Australia may be supporting prices.
Heavy rains fell through southeastern Australia which severely damaged the wheat crop and potentially reduced production by over 100,000 tons and turned up to 1 mmt of milling wheat into lower quality feed grain.
The Russian wheat harvest is now forecast to fall in 2024 to 89.8 mmt from previous estimates of 91.5 mmt due to lower yields.
Morocco is reportedly looking to import 2.5 mmt of wheat between January and April of 2024. It is likely that their primary source will be Russia, but it is possible that some will be purchased from the U.S.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today with continued pressure from yesterday’s selloff as the market prepares for a record large US corn harvest of 15.2 billion bushels.
South American weather has turned more favorable for Argentina which has been receiving more rain, and for Brazil, showers are forecast over the next seven days while soaked southern Brazil is expected to get a temporary break from the rain.
Brazil is reportedly running 8 to 10 days behind its usual pace of soybean planting at 74% complete, which is slated to delay both the soy harvest and the planting of second crop corn.
Demand for US corn has been strong for domestic use and exports with sales and shipments up 25% from a year ago, but the prospect of a 2 billion plus carryout has weighed on prices.
Soybeans are trading higher today as they work to regain some of the losses over the past three days. Despite the selloff, soybeans have stayed within their recent range.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 123,300 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
Analysts in Brazil have begun cutting their estimates of soybean production this week with Datagro at 156.6 mmt versus 163.7 mmt a week earlier and Agroconsult at 161.9 mmt versus 169.1 mmt a week ago. Because of this, expectations for export potential have been reduced to 96 mmt from 100 mmt in 2024.
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of 18,865 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net long position to 108,176 contracts.
Wheat is mostly higher with all three classes reversing higher from yesterday’s lows as traders cover short positions on oversold conditions.
According to the crop progress report, US winter wheat is now 91% emerged and nearly completely planted. In addition, good to excellent ratings have jumped 2 points to 50% which is the highest in 4 years.
A storm in the Black Sea region has halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people in the area without power.
After more Russian attacks over the weekend, Ukraine is now planning to place convoy vessels in the Black Sea to protect their export corridor.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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