Midday

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher today in thin holiday trade that saw prices on either side of unchanged. The re-opening of the two rail lines into Mexico have been supportive.
• Scattered showers are falling in central Brazil this morning, and heavier rains are forecast towards the end of the week with already drenched southern Brazil included.
• With the railways into Mexico now opened, shipments that have been backed up will begin flowing into the country, but could create a temporary bottleneck.
• Mexico has purchased the bulk of US corn this year, and sales and inspections for this crop year are up 36 and 27% each as a result.

• Soybeans opened lower to start the week, with pressure from both soybean meal and oil, as well as rainfall in Brazil with an improved forecast.
• With both soy products slipping in price recently, crush margins have fallen slightly. Margins are still firm and attractive to processors as they are above $2.50 per bushel.
• While central Brazil looks to recover from drought early in the season, Argentina has benefitted from favorable conditions and now has 69% of their soy crop planted with 37% rated good to excellent and just 3% poor to very poor.
• The USDA’s most recent estimate for Brazilian production was 161 mmt, but many private analysts have their estimates lower between 155 and 158 mmt. Estimates for Argentinian production are at 48 mmt per the USDA’s last report.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the week, with March Chicago wheat appearing to break to the upside of its pennant formation with a possible target at the 200-day moving average at $6.60.
• Support to the wheat complex is likely coming from the recent decline in the US dollar, which could have renewed buying interest from China and other countries.
• The re-opening of the two railways into Mexico should be friendly for wheat, as well as corn as Mexico has been a steady buyer of all three classes of US wheat.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials buying back 4,497 contracts of wheat which reduced their net short position to 65,032 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, December 25, in observance of Christmas

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Two railway crossings in Texas are still being affected by the migrant crisis. This is limiting the flow of US grain into Mexico, and as of writing the issue has not been resolved. According to Union Pacific, there is up to $200 million of freight per day, including grain, that can’t get to its destination.
• While the forecast shows conditions improving, the weather issues in Brazil so far may mean delays to safrinha corn planting down the road. Planting in a less optimal timeframe may lead to production losses.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 59% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted. Additionally, the improved weather conditions are reflected in the crop condition, with 90% rated good to excellent.  
• March corn is in oversold territory according to daily stochastics and is very close to a buy crossover signal between the K & D lines on this technical indicator.

• The January / March soybean spread has narrowed to a carry of less than a nickel after it was more than 20 cents just a few short weeks ago. Recent sales to China and unknown destinations may be offering some support, as is the fact that commercials are short nearby futures.
• The forecast for the drier areas of Brazil looks like it will get wetter, and it is expected to remain that way into January. The next week or so may have less rain than initially forecasted, but temperatures will also not be as hot.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean crop is 69% planted. Additionally, 97% of the crop is said to be in normal to good condition. 
• Soybean meal is near or at oversold levels from a technical perspective. Much of the recent decline has to do with the anticipation of a good Argentina crop. But meal is trading higher this morning, which may be the start of a technical correction, and this is providing some support to soybean futures.

• The US Dollar Index continues to fall, which should offer support to the wheat market. As of this writing, all three US classes are above water, but not by much, and may be seeing some upside resistance due to relatively poor export sales yesterday.
• More rain is expected in the US southern plains beginning Saturday. The front is expected to move into the central Midwest by Sunday. The moisture should benefit both hard and soft red wheat areas, but the forecast turns drier early next week.
• Recent heavy rains and snow in France have led to some of their wheat area not being planted. However, the market does not seem overly concerned, with Paris milling wheat futures having been in a lower trend since the first week of December.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, December 25, in observance of Christmas

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA said corn export sales were 39.9 mb for 23/24, and total commitments are now 37% above last year at 1.109 bb.
• The migrant crisis in Mexico has caused the closure of two major railway bridges. This has limited the supply of corn shipped from the US to Mexico, and it is estimated that they have about 2-3 weeks of supply left. It is also said that a total of about 1 mb of grain are being held back per day. If the issue is not quickly resolved, Mexico may turn elsewhere to secure their needs.
• Yesterday’s ethanol data was above expectations and the pace needed to reach the USDA’s corn usage forecast. However, ethanol inventories have also reached a four month high.
• China’s internal corn prices have recently hit seven month lows. However, there is a good chance that over the coming months they may purchase US corn, as it is currently cheaper than South American offers.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning, despite good export sales of 73.1 mb for 23/24 and 5.2 mb for 24/25. However, total commitments of 1.299 bb are 16% below last year.
• Overnight rains in parts of north-central Brazil resulted in some areas receiving 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. This is pressuring futures this morning, although, rains have been disappointing in Mato Grosso, which is Brazil’s biggest grain producing state.
• Most private estimates of the Brazilian soybean crop are around the mid 150’s, whereas the USDA and CONAB projections are just over 160 mmt.
• Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning, offering resistance to soybean futures. Going forward, the expected rise in biofuel production may be positive on the oil side, but this may also mean an abundance of soybean meal, which may weigh on the market.

• Wheat export sales of 11.9 mb for 23/24 were on the softer side, and total commitments of 546 mb are down 3% from last year.
• The US Dollar Index is under pressure this morning and may be lending some support to the wheat market. Additionally, the index is forming a bearish pennant chart pattern, which may point to more of a decline (which would be supportive for wheat).
• Russia’s wheat export values remain near $260 to $265 per mt FOB. This keeps them the leader on the export market, fulfilling recent tenders by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
• Rumors that China will purchase more US wheat continue to circulate, but so far, there has been no confirmation. If they do step up, it would offer a boost to the market, but it may be unlikely; global importers currently have cheaper options than from the US.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• March corn held the 470 support level overnight and is doing so, so far this morning. From a technical point of view, corn futures may be considered oversold and due for a bounce to the upside.
• In November, Brazil overtook the US as the top corn supplier to China. For that month, Brazil’s exports to China totaled 3.22 mmt of corn; China imported a total of 3.59 mmt that month. China’s total corn imports this year are at 22.18 mmt, with 40% of that having come from Brazil and 29% from the US.
• Crude oil is higher again this morning due to continued Houthi drone attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes. The rally in oil may offer some underlying support to the grain markets.
• In addition to the issues in the Red Sea, water levels on the Panama Canal are still low, and both of these issues are leading to increased global freight costs. In turn, this may offer some resistance to corn futures.

• Soybean futures are relatively close to unchanged this morning, and traders may be awaiting more news as far as the Brazilian weather forecast goes. The next ten days or so show a wetter pattern, but the key will be how much of that materializes.
• The spread between January and March soybeans continues to narrow, likely due to the recent sales to China and unknown destinations, along with the fact that commercials are short in the nearby market.
• Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans are up 108% in November at 5.29 mmt, compared to November of last year. China’s total November soybean imports this year were 7.92 mmt.
• According to a farmer survey, soybean production in Mato Grosso (Brazil’s top grain producing state) is expected to be down 20% in 2024 due to heat waves and spotty rains.

• The forecast for the US southern plains has rain in the nearby, but the second week looks drier and colder.
• Egypt purchased 480,000 mt of Russian wheat in their tender. Shipments are for 180,000 mt during the first half of February, with the remainder during the second half of the month.
• As of December 17^th, EU soft wheat exports have fallen 16% year on year, since the season began on July 1. The total of 14 mmt compares with 16.6 mmt for the same timeframe last year.
• Consultancy group APK-Inform increased their estimate of the 2023 Ukraine grain harvest to 56.3 mmt, versus 54.7 mmt previously. This reflects an increase in corn production, while keeping the wheat output estimate unchanged at 21.5 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Some meteorologists suggest that El Nino has peaked recently, however it is not over yet. It may continue to extend into February or March but the weather pattern for Brazil may improve during that timeframe.
• Due to weather issues, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop may be somewhat delayed. This may keep the US export window open a bit longer, into the late spring and early summer.
• Export inspections yesterday showed that corn inspections are running 27% above last year. This is running above the USDA’s estimated pace. 
• Corn is under pressure this morning but so far, the March contract is holding $4.70 support. However, a break below that level could trigger technical selling and may lead to a lower trading range.

• Farmers in Mato Grosso (Brazil) were granted an additional 20 days to plant soybeans by the ag minister. While not the 40 days originally requested, this extension will allow them to plant up to January 13.
• The Argentinian government proposed a plan to increase taxes on soybean meal and oil by 2%, raising it to 33%. This would put the products on par with the tax rate for soybeans.
• The European weather model suggests good rains through some of the drier areas of Brazil over the next ten days or so. This includes the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Tocantins, and Bahia.
• February palm oil futures are up for the fifth day in a row due to lower inventory as well as reduced production. Nevertheless, soybean oil futures are looking a bit soft this morning.
• Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.

• Egypt is again tendering for wheat. Currently the cheapest offer is from Russia at $260 per ton FOB.
• Following the recent Chinese purchases of US wheat and the resulting rebound in US SRW futures, US wheat has become uncompetitive on the global export market. There are rumors that China may be looking to purchase more US wheat, but so far there has been no confirmation.
• Despite the closure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative this summer, Ukraine has managed to ship 10 mmt of ag goods. However, that is down 19% from last year. According to Russia, there is no interest on their end to resume the deal.
• Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower for the fourth time in the past five sessions. This is not offering any support to the US market. In any case, US wheat futures have turned positive at midday, despite a lower start to the session.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading a little lower this morning with a wetter forecast for the drier areas of Brazil. But corn futures remain in a sideways pattern for now, stuck between support and resistance.
• Delays in Brazilian corn planting due to weather issues could open up a window for increased US exports, which may provide some support to the market as time goes on.
• US corn export sales are 36% ahead of last year, and US corn is competitively priced on the global market.
• China’s internal corn price hit the lowest level in seven months, with the May contract down 1.71% on Monday.

• Last week, there was an announced sale of soybeans each day, totaling over 52 mb, with some to China and some to unknown destinations. Even so, soybeans are a little softer this morning, due to increased rain in the forecast for the central and northern parts of Brazil.
• Dry conditions for some of Brazil’s early planted soybeans may have already taken a toll, with harvest in Mato Grosso showing some poor yields so far.
• Last week’s NOPA crush report showed a record for the month of November, with crush at 189 mb.
• Despite some of their weather issues, estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop range from 155 mmt to a record 161 mmt by CONAB and the USDA.

• So far, there have been no additional purchases of US wheat from China since the last announcement two weeks ago. There was some anticipation that they may continue to buy, but without that support wheat may be running into some upside resistance.
• So far this year, China has imported 11.5 mmt of wheat, which is up over 29% from last year. As to why, some speculation is that it is political in nature, while others feel that their grain production numbers were actually lower than what was officially reported.  
• Russia is believed to be the origin for the majority of Saudi Arabia’s wheat purchase of 1.35 mmt over the weekend. In other Russia news, they have reportedly stated that they have no interest in re-establishing the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
• Funds have been covering some of their short wheat position, but still hold a hefty short position of around 70,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher at midday and has not moved much over the past few weeks but is on track for a slightly lower close on the week in the March contract.
• Brazilian weather is expected to be hot and dry for another few days before turning much more favorable with showers expected over the central and northern regions, but the early dryness is expected to reduce total production.
• Argentinian weather has been very friendly, especially considering last year’s extreme drought conditions, and 50% of the corn crop is reportedly planted, with only 1% receiving a poor rating.
• Yesterday’s Export Sales report was strong again, and total shipments this year are up 32% from the previous year. Mexico has been responsible for nearly half of the corn purchases.

• Soybeans are trading lower today but are being bull spread with the larger losses in the deferred contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are mostly lower as well with more pressure coming from soybean oil.
• Brazilian weather is back in focus with the next few days remaining hot and dry, but then set to improve significantly with widespread showers that are expected to fall throughout January.
• The NOPA crush report will be released later today, and traders are expecting a near record crush of between 186 to 188 mb for November which would compare to 179 mb a year ago.
• Argentina shut down its office for export licenses on Monday, but it has reopened today, and so far its new policy changes have caused a 54% reduction in the value of the Argentinian peso.

• Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago and Minneapolis trading higher but KC lower as winter wheat areas are forecast to receive beneficial rains.
• Yesterday’s Export Sales report was a marketing year high at 54.8 mb and the largest sales since June 2020, but this was mostly expected after the Chinese flash sales were reported last week.
• Macro support for the wheat complex has come from the Federal Reserve’s decision not to increase interest rates and their comments about rate cuts to come next year. This caused the dollar to decline which makes US wheat more competitive.
• In the US, rains are expected to fall between Nebraska and central Texas today which should benefit the winter wheat crop, but better chances in the southern Plains will come towards the end of the year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher today but has slipped from the earlier morning highs. The lower US Dollar along with strong export sales have been supportive.
• For the week ending December 7, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 55.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. This was up 36% from the previous year.
• Last week’s export shipments of 33.5 mb were below the 45.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 2.100 bb for the 23/24 marketing year. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and China.
• Yesterday’s report from the Energy Department showed last week’s ethanol production at 1.074 million bpd, a strong pace that shows good demand.

• Soybeans are trading higher today along with the rest of the grain complex thanks to good export sales and temporarily hot and dry weather in Brazil. Soybean meal has turned lower for the day, while soybean oil is higher.
• For the week ending December 7, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 39.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was down 23% from the previous week and down 20% from the previous year.
• Last week’s export shipments of 42.6 mb were well above the 27.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates of 1.755 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and unknown destinations.
• In more friendly demand news, private exporters reported a flash sale this morning of 400,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 23/24.

• This morning, all three wheat classes were trading higher, but prices have slipped and are now mixed with just Chicago and Minn wheat higher and KC lower.
• Export sales were the strongest seen in wheat in a long time at 54.8 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 0.7 mb for 24/25. This was a marketing year high and up 3% from the previous year.
• Last week’s export shipments of 10.6 mb were below the 16.4 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 725 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines.
• The Argentinian wheat crop is now expected to increase by 7.4% to 14.5 mmt after recent beneficial rains. This is up from the last guess at 13.5 mmt, and harvest is 57% complete.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower today while remaining rangebound, but prices have struggled to remain above the 20-day moving average as trade anticipates a corn carryout well above 2 billion bushels.
• Argentina’s new president was inaugurated last weekend, and producers in the country have been waiting for new policies to be implemented that would devalue its currency and possibly cut export taxes before they begin selling grain. These policies could trigger selling and may be pressuring prices.
• The short-term forecast for Brazil remains hot and dry in the most drought-stricken areas, but heavier rains are expected to fall beginning on December 19 through at least January.
• The USDA didn’t make any changes to Brazilian production in last week’s WASDE report, but CONAB has their estimates 10 mmt lower, and other analysts are projecting the crop even lower at 118 mmt.

• Soybeans are trading lower today and are likely under pressure from the Argentinian export policy changes that are pressuring corn this morning.
• Both soy products are trading lower with the bigger losses in soybean meal due to the January contract trading below the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. Palm oil futures are lower which is pressuring soybean oil.
• This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales of 125,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This is the fifth consecutive sale since last Thursday.
• Both the USDA and CONAB are estimating Brazil’s soybean crop above 160 mmt, but some private analysts are between 155 and 157 mmt.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower today after failing at the 100-day moving average yesterday. There has been a lack of follow through buying from China which has also added to pressure.
• The Russian government has banned durum wheat exports until May 31st in order to stabilize prices domestically, but this may indicate that they are beginning to run low on supplies.
• Ukrainian wheat production is now forecast to fall to a 12-year low next year to 20.2 mmt as a result of smaller plantings. This would make the smallest production since 2012.
• Estimates for world wheat stockpiles in the 23/24 season are now forecast at 319.3 mmt which is up from last month’s estimate of 315.1 mmt as a result of higher production from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher today but remains in the same rangebound pattern since the beginning of November. The next 7 days are forecast to be dry in Brazil which has given support to the corn market.
• While weather has improved recently in central and northern Brazil, the corn crop was planted in dry conditions so dry periods like this upcoming one worsen the drought conditions. This will be favorable for the flooded southern region.
• US corn demand has been firm with help from the fact that US corn is cheaper than Brazil with FOB prices yesterday at nearly a 40-cent discount to Brazil. US corn exports are 35% higher than a year ago.
• CPI data was released today and showed inflation trending lower in November and rising 3.1% from a year ago. This was in line with expectations.

• Soybeans are trading lower today after a strong rally in yesterday’s session that was driven by higher soy products and a hot and dry spell for Brazilian weather.
• March soybeans are trading right at the 100-day moving average and have worked back closer to the center of their range. Soybean meal is higher today, while soybean oil is lower.
• The USDA is predicting that Brazil’s soybean production will reach 161 mmt this season, but this guess is above CONAB and other analysts which are expecting production in the mid-150 mmt range due to the early heat and drought.
• Argentina’s new president Milei was inaugurated on Sunday and yesterday he temporarily suspended its grains export register. This comes as he plans to significantly reduce export tariffs, which will likely cause a large influx of farmer selling if it is enacted.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher, with Chicago wheat trading even with the 100-day moving average again despite a lack of fresh Chinese purchases.
• The Russian government has banned durum wheat exports until May 31st in order to stabilize prices domestically, but this may indicate that they are beginning to run low on supplies.
• China purchased over 41 mb of US wheat last week which caused short covering by the funds, but both French and Australian wheat are cheaper on an FOB basis which could limit further US sales.
• Although world ending supplies of wheat are at their tightest levels in 15 years, the USDA’s current estimate of ending stocks is at 4.57 billion bushels. Traders may only get concerned with that number if it falls below 4 bb.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.