Corn is trading slightly lower near midday but has moved off its lows from earlier this morning. CONAB released numbers for Brazilian corn production that were higher than expected.
CONAB has only lowered their estimate for the Brazilian 23/24 corn crop to 117.6 mmt which is down from 118.53 mmt the previous month. Many analysts are expecting a lower number due to the early hot and dry conditions. The USDA’s previous guess was a lofty 129 mmt.
The window for US corn exports has just opened, and prices are competitive with Argentina and Brazil with US Gulf corn reportedly 20 cents per bushel cheaper than Argentinian corn.
Domestic corn demand has been firm as ethanol production has exceeded the USDA’s previous forecast for ethanol use. Friday’s report could feature supportive adjustments in demand.
Soybeans are trading lower today but have stayed rangebound over the past three days with support at 1235 in the March contract. Both soybean meal and oil are lower despite higher crude oil.
Today’s pressure is likely due to the numbers that CONAB released which were higher than expected at 155.27 mmt. Their previous guess was 160.18 mmt, but many private analysts have guesses closer to 152 mmt.
Adding to pressure in the soy complex is the closing window for export sales which was highlighted by poor inspections yesterday and the absence of a reported flash sale since December 19.
In Brazil, the largest farm cooperative received a large volume of soybeans which indicates that many of the earlier planted soybeans in drought areas were harvested early and likely with poor yields.
Wheat has turned slightly lower at midday but has been trying to turn positive as the Chicago contract in March continues to consolidate at the 100-day moving average.
Russia is still receiving the majority of wheat export business, but Japan is reportedly tendering for US and Canadian wheat, and wheat prices in India are rising making the US more competitive.
Traders are expecting Friday’s WASDE report to show a decline in the wheat seeding number for winter wheat, and some private analysts are projecting a decline of between 1.5 and 2 million acres.
The storms moving through the central and southern Plains have been beneficial for winter wheat areas and could see crop conditions improve further, but below freezing temperatures next week may be harmful.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher today, after yesterday’s lower close and falling prices since the beginning of the year, which has seen March corn lose nearly 14 cents. Higher wheat prices are likely supporting corn.
The US may see improved export sales in the coming weeks, following reports that US corn is now at over a 20 cent per bushel basis discount to Argentinian corn prices for February delivery. Although, there have been no flash sales reported since December 19.
Brazilian weather is forecast to be wet over the next 7-days, and Mato Grosso and other northern regions have seen significant improvements from the recent rains. Mato Grosso so Sul and Sao Paulo remain too dry.
Domestic corn demand has been firm as ethanol production has exceeded the USDA’s previous forecast for ethanol use. Friday’s report could feature supportive adjustments in demand.
Soybeans have had a relatively wide trading range so far today and are now trading lower in the front months, while the November contract trades higher. Soybean meal is lower and soybean oil is higher.
Part of the reason for the pressure in front month soybeans is the large number of deliveries against the January contract. So far, there have been deliveries on 1,632 contracts or 8.16 mb.
Friday’s WASDE report will likely leave US production relatively unchanged. In December, they pegged the national yield at 49.9 bpa, with total production at 4.13 billion bushels.
Trade learned yesterday that the funds exited their entire net long position in soybeans and now hold a net short position, but they also exited a large chunk of their long soybean meal position and continue to sell.
Wheat is trading higher today in all three classes and is also lending some support to the downtrodden corn market. Prices remain well off their lows and are consolidating near the 100-day moving average.
China has not made a purchase of US wheat since early December, but rumors have been circling for the past few days that China is looking to buy cargoes, which could account for the higher movement today.
The storms moving through the central and southern Plains have been beneficial for winter wheat areas and could see crop conditions improve further, but below freezing temperatures next week may be harmful.
Friday’s WASDE report will give traders an update on winter wheat seedings, and some analysts are expecting acres to decline more than expected. The average trade guess is at 35.8 million acres, which compares to the USDA’s last guess of 36.7 ma.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower again this morning but has moved 3 cents off its lows from earlier in the morning as it makes new contract lows. Improving Brazilian weather has added pressure.
More bearish pressure comes from an increase in global shipping rates, mainly due to issues in the Red Sea with the ongoing war. That trade route traffics 12% of world trade.
Friday’s WASDE report could offer some support if the USDA lowers Brazilian production by more than trade is expecting. The last guess was 129 mmt, but many private analysts are expecting closer to 120 mmt due to drought early in the season.
For the week ending January 2, non-commercials were sellers of 19,700 contracts of corn, increasing their net short position to a very large 197,326 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower today but have also moved off their earlier lows by about 8 cents. Both soybean meal and oil are lower with bean oil posting the largest losses.
Saudi Arabia has announced that they would reduce the price of their crude oil for all buyers rather than just Asian countries. This has caused crude oil futures to fall and has put pressure on soybean oil.
Despite an expected decline in Brazil’s soybean production, total soy exports for January are expected to reach at least 1.3 mmt which is a significant increase from the previous year which saw 940,000 exported.
With the WASDE report being released this Friday and the funds now holding a net short position, it is possible that they will cover some of those shorts ahead of Friday in case the USDA announces lower than expected Brazilian soy production.
Wheat is leading the grain complex lower today, but it has also recovered slightly from earlier lows. The rising value of the dollar combined with high shipping rates has negatively impacted all grains today.
In the US, a large winter storm is expected to bring large amounts of moisture to winter wheat areas in the central and southern Plans as well as the Midwest. Winter wheat ratings have improved recently.
Last week’s export sales were extremely disappointing across the board, but especially for wheat. There have been no sales reported to China in weeks, but there are rumors starting to circulate that China is seeking SRW offers.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers by only 718 contracts which increased their total net short position to 60,277 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 14.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24.
Ethanol production data yesterday came in 205,000 barrels per day higher than last year, but still down from last week. In any case, this may be helping nearby corn to find support around the 460 level.
Expectations for next Friday’s USDA report are for a reduction in Brazilian corn production due to early drought and hot weather that has affected growing conditions and planting intentions. Private estimates are about 8-10 mmt below the current USDA estimate of a 129 mmt crop.
About 45% of the US Corn Belt is still said to be experiencing drought conditions in some form. But a storm in the southwest that is expected to move eastward may help to recharge soil moisture in parts of the Midwest.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 7.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24.
The extended forecast for Mato Grosso, Brazil has good rain coverage over the next week or so. The extended forecast has less moisture, but with much improved conditions as of late, this will likely continue to weigh on the soybean market.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning, adding to pressure on soybean futures. Meal in particular continues to be in a freefall, and technically the March contract looks like it may soon test the October low of $365.30.
As in corn, the USDA is likely to reduce their estimate of Brazilian soybean production, with some private estimates a full 10 mmt below the current USDA projection at 161 mmt. While this would be supportive to prices, it should be noted that this decline may be well offset by the production of other South American countries.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 4.8 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 24/25.
All three US wheat classes are in positive territory this morning, possibly on renewed rumors that China is looking to purchase more US wheat.
The wheat market’s reversal yesterday is a bullish signal which may also be in part why futures are higher this morning – they are following through on this momentum.
Russian wheat export values are said to be near $245 per mt FOB, which is an increase from the lows reached in November. However, this is still cheap wheat, and is sure to keep pressure on US exports.
In addition to next week’s WASDE report, the winter wheat seedings report will also be released. Current expectations are for a decline in winter wheat acreage by 1.5 to 3.0 million acres, which would be supportive to futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are trying to rebound after a lower start to the session, with prices having turned positive as of writing. Technically, corn is at or near oversold levels and may be due for a correction to the upside.
Increased freight costs globally may be having an impact on export demand; it has been nearly a month since there were any corn flash sales announced by the USDA. Despite US corn prices being below South America for the spring months, exports of commodities and other goods are being affected by low water levels on the Panama Canal, and the issues in the Red Sea with shipping companies saying they will avoid using the Suez Canal.
Corn futures in Brazil are well above that of the US, with the March contract around the equivalent of $6.58 per bushel yesterday.
Funds remain net short a hefty amount of corn contracts, which could prime the market for a short covering rally. However, reversing the strong downtrend would require significant friendly news.
Total South American soybean production between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay was estimated to be 219 mmt in the December USDA report, far above the 195 mmt record. The 219 mmt number may be reduced on next week’s report with declines in Brazil, however, it is unlikely to fall enough to allow much of a rally in the bean market.
The forecast remains wet for the next 10 days in north / central Brazil, keeping negative pressure on US soybean futures. And while some damage to the soybean crop may have been done by early heat and dryness, the recent rains have stabilized the crop.
Argentina’s soybean meal offers for the April – May timeframe are said to be $40 per ton cheaper than the US. This continues to pressure the meal market, and in turn, soybean futures. With that said, US soybean meal futures may be finding some technical support at these lower levels and oversold conditions.
US soybean export sales are down 15% from last year, and like corn, there have been no recent flash sales announced by the USDA. For soybeans, it has been over two weeks. This may also be reflective of some of the global freight issues.
After four consecutive sessions of the US Dollar Index rallying, it has finally backed off and is lower this morning. This is easing pressure on the wheat market, in which Chicago futures are trying to turn positive after being in negative territory this morning.
Here in the US, a storm system is expected to bring rain and snow to parts of the Plains states, primarily in the central and southern areas.
On a bullish note, wheat supplies in India are said to be the lowest since 2017. Even if they do not import directly from the US, this could still be a supportive factor for the wheat market as a whole.
The bitter cold that is moving into parts of Russia and Ukraine may bring the threat of winterkill in wheat areas that have no snow cover. Some areas do have snow, however, traders may not see this as a major threat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
March corn made a new contract low to start the year but is holding around neutral at the time of this writing. Technically, corn futures are now at or near oversold levels, which may indicate that a bottom may be nearing.
The long range forecast for northern Brazil indicates good rains into mid-January. Expectations are for between 4 to 9 inches of rain in some areas that have been drier, including the top grain producing state Mato Grosso.
Argentina’s corn crop is rated 38% good to excellent, versus just 15% at this time last year. Some estimates have Argentina doubling corn production versus a year ago as a result of much improved conditions.
March soybeans gapped lower yesterday and closed at the lowest level since the end of June. The trend for now appears to be downward, but if there is a silver lining it is the fact that gaps like to be filled over time.
Despite some lower private estimates of the Brazilian soybean crop, South America as a whole is estimated to produce between 15-25 mmt more soybeans than last year, keeping pressure on the US market.
March soybean meal has lost nearly $70 per ton since the high on November 13, at $445.10. This plunge is largely associated with the improved conditions in Argentina’s soybean crop versus last year. Thus, the lower meal market is keeping a lid on soybean futures.
Yesterday’s census crush data was record large for November at 200 mb, and soybean oil stocks fell to 1.591 billion pounds versus expectations of 1.630.
March Chicago wheat broke below the 40 & 50-day moving averages (around 6.05) as well as the six-dollar support level during this session. At the time of this writing, it is back above six, but still below the moving averages. Psychologically, six dollars may be an important support/resistance level.
Russia is said to have again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port on Tuesday, but it is having little impact on the wheat market. In that part of the world, an arctic storm is expected to hit both countries next week.
Russia remains dominant in the export market, with their wheat FOB values are said to be the world’s cheapest at $245 per mt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Central Brazil received good rains over the weekend. Mato Grosso, their top grain producing state, had good coverage with heavy totals. Additionally, more rain is expected this week for the central region.
Though conditions are improving, private estimates of Brazil’s corn crop range from 8-12 mmt below the USDA estimate of 129 mmt.
The CFTC indicated that managed funds, as of last Tuesday, held a net short of 172,000 corn contracts.
This afternoon the grain crushings report will be released at 2:00 PM CST. This will include corn grind (as well as soybean crush) data.
Soybeans are down sharply this morning (with the March contract having gapped lower) likely following China’s weaker Dalian futures, and also on improved South American weather.
October biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity rose nearly 3% in October to a record 5.9 billion gallons. However, production actually fell about 8% in October to a three-month low of 388 million gallons.
Prior to the grain opening at 8:30 this morning, crude oil was up about two dollars per barrel. However, as of writing it has dropped and has been trading both sides of neutral. This decline may be affecting soybeans and the grain markets as a whole.
Despite improved conditions in Brazil, final soybean production could be affected by the early heat and dryness in the north as well as flooding in the south. This has private estimates ranging 6-11 mmt below the USDA’s 161 mmt production estimate.
The US Dollar Index is up sharply. As of this writing, it has gained 0.78 on the day to 102.11. Along with lower corn and soybeans, this is putting pressure on the wheat market.
Paris milling wheat futures remain in a sideways to lower pattern, offering no support to the US market. As of this writing, those contracts are down about one euro per mt, holding just slightly above last week’s lows.
Next week Friday, January 12, traders will receive the next WASDE report. Additionally, the winter wheat seedings report will be released with the first estimate of US 2024 wheat acreage.
According to the CFTC, managed funds hold a net short position in Chicago wheat of about 60,000 contracts, and about 31,000 contracts in KC wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 1, in observance of New Year’s Day.
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’24
473.25
-1
JUL ’24
495.5
-0.5
DEC ’24
505
0.25
Soybeans
JAN ’24
1295
-10.25
MAR ’24
1300
-12
NOV ’24
1247.75
-11
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24
625.25
-6.25
MAY ’24
636.5
-5.75
JUL ’24
642.5
-5.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24
642
-1.75
MAY ’24
643.25
-1.75
JUL ’24
645
-1.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24
722.75
-2.75
JUL ’24
740.75
-2.5
SEP ’24
750
-0.75
S&P 500
MAR ’24
4808
-24.25
Crude Oil
FEB ’24
72.21
0.44
Gold
FEB ’24
2075.9
-7.6
Corn is trading near unchanged across the board on very light holiday trade that has continued through the week. At this point, March corn is set to post a slight gain for the week.
Export sales for corn were solid at 48.9 mb for 23/24 and 0.4 mb for 24/25. This was up 23% from the previous week, but down 12% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments for last week were 50.4 mb and were above the 45.7 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Columbia, and Japan.
Second crop corn usually begins planting in Brazil between January and February and while there are still some concerns regarding soil moisture, the forecast has improved.
Soybeans are trading lower today, dragged down by lower prices in both soybean meal and oil. Improved weather in Brazil has been a bearish factor this week.
Export sales for soybeans were on the soft side at 36.2 mb for 23/24, which was down 51% from the previous week and 38% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments of 44.7 mb were well above the 26.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Mexico.
Many analysts are expecting Brazilian production to be closer to 155 mmt, compared to the USDA’s last guess of 161 mmt, but Argentina’s production is estimated higher with only 3% of the crop rated poorly.
Wheat began the day higher, but has faded with Chicago and Minneapolis lower and KC posting only slight gains. March Chicago wheat is on track for around a 10-cent gain on the week.
Export sales for wheat were poor as expected, with the USDA reporting an increase of just 10.2 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and 1.5 mb for 24/25. This was down 14% from the previous week and 60% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments came in at 12.6 mb last week, which was below the 16.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Japan, Thailand, and South Korea.
Demand fell to extremely low levels for US wheat exports this year, and as a result, cash prices of KC wheat are on track for a 27% loss for the year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 1, in observance of New Year’s Day.
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’24
476.25
-0.25
JUL ’24
497.75
-0.25
DEC ’24
506.25
-0.25
Soybeans
JAN ’24
1316
-0.75
MAR ’24
1321.25
0.75
NOV ’24
1265
-0.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24
631
8
MAY ’24
641.25
7.5
JUL ’24
646.75
7.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24
644.5
9.5
MAY ’24
646.25
8.75
JUL ’24
648.25
8.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24
725.25
3.5
JUL ’24
745.75
5.75
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MAR ’24
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Corn is trading near unchanged to slightly lower today, as it maintains its narrow range. The shortened holiday week has caused light volume, and managed funds are likely taking profits ahead of the new year.
Weather forecasts for Brazil show improved chances for heavy rain in central Brazil and notably the key growing area of Mato Grosso. Argentinian weather is also expected to be good.
The USDA’s last estimate for Brazilian corn production was 129 mmt, but Brazil’s estimates are lower at 118 mmt. Estimates for Argentina were at 55 mmt, but their final production could be higher.
The export window for US corn should extend over the next few months while South America waits to harvest, and export demand in the US is already 36% higher than a year ago.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower today, but have been on either side of unchanged as the light holiday volume causes volatility.
Soybean meal is lower today, while soybean oil is slightly higher, but overall, both soy products have fallen over the past few weeks, which has hurt crush margins.
The USDA will release its updated WASDE report on January 12, and expectations are that Brazilian production will be lowered from 161 mmt and that US exports will be reduced to 50 mb due to low demand.
Argentina’s soy crop is estimated at 48 mmt, or potentially higher thanks to very good weather conditions early in the season and good soil moisture.
All three wheat classes are mostly higher near midday, thanks to a technical break to the upside. Funds are heavily short and are likely buying back contracts into the end of the year.
Yesterday, a bulk carrier in the Black Sea hit a mine, which damaged the carrier and injured two people. This further adds to the shipping issues seen in that region.
SovEcon has cut their Russian wheat export estimates to 48.6 mmt, which compares to a previous estimate of 48.8 mmt, as increasing freight rates cause weaker shipment numbers.
The US dollar is lower again today and has fallen sharply over the past few months, which has been supportive to wheat in the global export market. China has not made a large purchase in weeks, but the lower dollar makes the US more competitive.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
After three higher closes in a row, March corn is trading lower this morning. This may be due to profit taking, a lack of significant news, as well as more favorable weather conditions in South America.
Despite some of the recent attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, some shipping companies have resumed travel there in the face of the associated risks.
The USDA is estimating Brazilian corn production at 129 mmt, but some private estimates are well below that number, with one as low as 117 mmt. The safrinha crop has yet to be planted, so it may be too early to make a judgement call just yet.
Ethanol demand remains strong, and production has been higher than the USDA’s estimated corn usage number for ethanol.
March soybean oil closed yesterday at the lowest level since June and is in negative territory again this morning. Meal is also trading lower and this is weighing on soybean futures.
Favorable crop conditions in Argentina, and an improving outlook for Brazil are both negative to prices and may be pressuring the market this morning. Over the next couple weeks, central Brazil’s forecast calls for more consistent rains.
One private estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop is at 153 mmt. This is well below both the USDA and CONAB, both of whom are projecting a 160 mmt plus crop.
The expectation for higher biofuel demand may provide support to soybean oil as time goes on. However, the increased crush may also lead to an overabundance of US meal, especially if Argentina has a good soybean crop as anticipated.
Yesterday, March Chicago wheat closed well above the 100 day moving average after a strong rally. However, most of those gains are being given up this morning with all three US wheat classes trading lower.
The US Dollar Index continues to fall and is approaching the 101 level at midday today. This should be supportive to wheat, but as long as Russian wheat remains cheap, US exports remain uncompetitive.
Currently, the spread between March Chicago and KC wheat is less than a dime in favor of the KC. With improved moisture and conditions in the US southern Plains, this spread may continue to weaken.
According to Russia, their wheat harvest is nearly complete. So far, 93 mmt of wheat have been harvested versus a crop last year that totaled 104.2 mmt. Despite the lower crop this year, they are still the cheapest global source, with FOB values ranging between $240 to $243 per mt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
