Corn is trading slightly lower near midday as the quiet trade continues with very little fresh news. Export sales were in line with expectations, and Argentina’s short-term forecast is on the drier side.
Today’s export sales report featured an increase of 37.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher side of the average trade guess at a time when US corn is globally competitive.
Last week’s corn export shipments of 36.7 mb were below the 45.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates, and primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and China.
Yesterday, the EIA reported that ethanol production fell by more than anticipated at 22% to 818,000 barrels per day which compares to 1.054 million bpd the previous week.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower today after sitting near unchanged earlier this morning. Export sales were not terrible, so the slide is likely due to pressure from both soybean meal and oil.
Since the beginning of the week, soybean meal has been edging higher after becoming oversold, but soybean oil has moved lower despite sharply higher palm oil. Crush margins have narrowed significantly which could impact crush numbers.
Export sales for soybeans were on the lower end of expectations with an increase of 20.6 mb for 23/24. This was down 28% from the previous week but up 6% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 41.1 mb were well above the 23.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea.
All three wheat classes are mixed at midday with KC wheat leading the way higher after export inspections came in right in line with expectations. March Chicago wheat has rebounded 39 cents from last Thursday’s low and has broken above the 100-day moving average.
SovEcon has estimated Russia’s wheat production higher at 92.2 mmt, and so far the country has exported a record large 26 mmt in just the first 6 months of the marketing year.
Last week’s export sales report showed an increase of 16.6 mb of wheat export sales, which was within expectations, and an increase of 2.2 mb for 24/25.
Export shipments of 11.9 mb were below the 17.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 725 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher today and is so far on track for a small gain on the week. Support has come from an uptick in exports, as well as some weather concerns in Brazil.
On February 15, the USDA will hold its Ag Outlook meeting, and many analysts are expecting a decline in planted corn acres for 24/25 with one firm projecting 1.6 million acres fewer from last year.
Brazil’s first crop corn production was estimated lower due to fewer planted acres, and now weather is a concern for the second crop corn. Some analysts are forecasting total production at 115 mmt which is below the USDA’s last estimate of 127 mmt.
Overnight, South Korea bought 136,000 mt of corn which is expected to be sourced from the US, South America, or South Africa. US corn has become competitive with other global offers.
Soybeans are trading mixed after trending higher following last Thursday’s low. Futures were significantly oversold, and the short-term drier forecast for Brazil and Argentina may have added support.
Soybean meal is higher for the second day in a row but has been trending lower while soybean oil is lower despite gains in crude oil. Crush margins have narrowed recently but remain profitable.
Private analysts are still predicting that the USDA’s last estimate for Brazilian production is too high at 157 mmt, with most guesses between 149 and 154 mmt. While weather has improved, the 14-day forecast is drier.
China is expanding its efforts to become more self-sustainable by implementing the use of GMO soybeans and corn but will still need to import from the US and South America.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with Chicago wheat leading the way. Weather in the US has been beneficial for winter wheat, so the recent increase in prices could mean that funds are unraveling a portion of their net short position.
Australia’s wheat crop which was previously under drought conditions has been receiving beneficial rains, and now a larger crop is expected with some analysts projecting 30 mmt.
Shipping issues are still a concern in the Red Sea, but China is reportedly taking steps to de-escalate the tensions.
Iraq’s wheat harvest this year is expected to top 6 mmt which would be up from 5.19 mmt the previous year as the government has implemented more support for farmers in the country.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
At the time of this writing, corn is trading higher and the March contract is on track for a fourth consecutively higher close following drier South American weather and US exports that are picking up.
With US corn so inexpensive and the South American corn harvest just beginning, this is the window for the US to get corn sold, and between the last export sales report and last week’s flash sale, demand is picking up.
Brazil’s first crop corn harvest is now 8.4% complete as of January 19 which compares to 1.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 5.8%.
Brazil’s first crop corn is already projected to be smaller than the initial estimates due to a decline in planted acres, and now it’s being estimated that the safrinha corn crop will be smaller than expected as well due to the El Nino pattern and smaller planted area.
Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed off their earlier morning highs, just as both soybean meal and oil. Soybean oil is higher along with crude and Malaysian palm oil.
Brazilian weather is forecast to be wetter over the next week, but early drought in the central and northern regions of the country may have damaged some of crop too heavily for this late rain to produce strong yields.
The USDA’s last estimate for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop was 157 mmt, but more analysts are reducing their estimates which are now closer to the 150 mmt mark. One analyst estimated as low as 135 mmt but that is not likely.
Led lower by soybean meal, the value of soy products has fallen over the past few months along with soybeans. This has caused crush premiums to narrow, but they remain profitable.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today led by KC wheat. Slush and snow are falling across the eastern Midwest with more chances for rain over the next week. Overall, winter wheat conditions are looking better than last year.
Australia’s wheat crop which was previously under drought conditions has been receiving beneficial rains, and now a larger crop is expected with some analysts projecting 30 mmt.
Yesterday’s export sales were soft again at 314k tons but were slightly higher than last week. A good portion of that wheat is bound for China which is encouraging.
The European wheat crop has seen cold and dry weather conditions to start the year, but Russia’s wheat crop is reportedly not damaged thanks to the insulating layer of snow.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading near unchanged at midday, and a higher close would be the third consecutively higher close after March corn found support near the $4.40 level.
There was a lack of fresh news over the weekend, but last week’s export sales report was stronger than anticipated, pointing to the open export window in the US.
Weather in South America is mixed with Argentina facing drier conditions over the next three days while Brazil has better chances for rain over the entire country, apart from Mato Grosso du Sul. The improved forecast has caused July corn prices on the Bovespa Exchange to fall by 14% in January.
Non-commercials currently hold their largest net short position since 2020 of 219,968 contracts which could result in short covering if prices begin to move higher.
Soybeans are trading higher today with the March contract finding support at the 12-dollar mark last Thursday. Lower soybean meal is limiting gains for soybeans, but soybean oil is trading higher.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and is reportedly 6% complete, up 2% from the prior week. Yield reports have been poor so far, but in general, the worst of the crop has been harvested first so that safrinha corn can be planted in time.
Export sales for soybeans last week were stronger than expected, and on Friday, a flash sale of 10.9 mb was announced to China. That was the first reported sale since December 19.
Led lower by soybean meal, the value of soy products has fallen over the past few months along with soybeans. This has caused crush premiums to narrow, but they remain profitable.
Wheat is mixed today with Chicago and Minneapolis higher but KC trading lower. There has been a lack of fresh news which led to prices stagnating.
Global shipping woes continue to be an issue causing increased freight rates. European shipments have been avoiding the Suez Canal due to attacks by Houthi rebels and have diverted for different routes.
In the US, precipitation is expected to fall over the southwestern Plains and most of the SRW wheat areas. Today, ice and snow are expected from Michigan down to eastern Texas.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 10,587 contracts of wheat which increased their net short position to 68,575 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 49.3 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 24/25. Commitments at 1.241 bb for 23/24 are up 36% from last year.
After yesterday’s reversal and a higher close, corn is trading higher this morning, along with soybeans and wheat.
Uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East have crude oil on the rise. The grain complex may be benefiting from this rally.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn crop was rated 46% good to excellent, up from 36% last week, and dramatically higher than the 5% rating a year ago.
Reportedly, China imported 195 mb of corn for the month of December. That is record large, and while some came from the US, the majority originated from Brazil.
The USDA reported an increase of 28.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. Commitments at 1.374 bb for 23/24 are down 18% from last year.
This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 297,000 mt of soybeans to China for the 23/24 marketing year.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean crop was rated 55% good to excellent. This compares with 51% last week and is well above the 4% GTE rating at this time last year.
Although their conditions have improved drastically, the upcoming weather forecast for Argentina is turning a little drier, which may stress their soybean crop in the coming weeks.
The USDA reported an increase of 26 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Commitments at 592 mb for 23/24 are down 4% from last year.
The rebound in wheat may be a result of short covering by funds who still hold a large position. This may have been triggered by wheat futures being very oversold technically.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading higher this morning. If they can close in positive territory, it would be the third session in a row that they have done so. This would also lend some support to the US market.
With the recent decline in price, global importers are stepping up to the plate to purchase wheat. Reportedly, over the past three days, there has been about 59 mb of wheat booked, mostly by North African and Middle Eastern countries. Unfortunately, most of that was sourced out of the Black Sea region.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are oversold on technical indicators such as stochastics and the RSI, but it should be noted that they can remain this way for quite some time during a strong downtrend.
The short position held by spec traders in corn is near 250,000 contracts, a three-year high level. With momentum headed downwards, funds may continue to pile on short positions.
Currently US corn has an advantage over Argentina in the global market. However, that window is closing, as the US lead is only through February.
China has approved six GMO varieties of corn (and two of soybeans). As they take steps to become more self-sufficient, it may lead to a decline in commodity imports in the coming years.
Soybean meal posted a major reversal downward yesterday. This morning it is mixed with further declines in the front months but has small gains in the deferred. If it is consolidating, it may give soybean futures a breather, but another leg down in meal would be sure to add pressure to beans.
So far today, March soybeans have held support at 12.00, trading down to 12.01 before rebounding slightly. This may be an important area psychologically. However, the May low was near 11.45 and could be tested in the coming weeks if there is no friendly news to push the market higher.
For the spring, Brazil soybean offers are well below that of the US. This is sure to keep pressure on the export market. But if some of the private estimates of a lower Brazilian crop are to be believed, it is possible that this gap could narrow down the road.
Brazil has rain in the forecast over the next 7-10 days in the northern and central growing areas. For that same timeframe, Argentina has little moisture in the forecast.
After the recent storms in the US, much of the winter wheat crop has snow cover to protect from cold temperatures. But perhaps more importantly, soil moisture levels are much better than last year. Therefore, the crop has entered dormancy with better conditions.
Egypt’s wheat tender resulted in the purchase 360,000 mt. Five cargoes were sourced from Russia, with an additional cargo from France. Nevertheless, Paris milling wheat futures are trading just above the contract lows.
By this weekend, another round of cold temperatures are expected to affect much of the Midwest and plains states. The front moving down from the arctic will bring sub zero temps to many areas.
The US Dollar Index continues to be in an uptrend, since making a near-term low on December 28. If it continues to rise, it will also continue to add pressure to the export market, and thus futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has turned positive this morning. This may be a combination of a technical bounce off the lows, in addition to being pulled higher by the wheat market.
Currently, US corn exports are running 29% above last year, with the USDA estimating a 26% increase. However, Argentina will soon be offering corn for export, and with some estimates of their crop above the USDA’s 55 mmt, pressure may soon be put on US exports.
Central and northern Brazil, along with Argentina, will see some net drying over the next two weeks or so. While this is unlikely to be an issue for their crops, it may nonetheless be viewed as a supportive factor for prices.
Crude oil is still in negative territory as of this writing, but is trading over a dollar off the session low and this comeback may be supporting the positive move in corn.
Chinese data suggests that their economy continues to slow, which may add pressure to equity and commodity markets.
NOPA crush set a December record at 195 mb and was also higher than the trade estimate of 193 mb. Soybean oil stocks also increased 12% versus the previous month.
The USDA is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 157 mmt. However, most private estimates are below that, with a relatively wide range of guesses, between 135 and 153 mmt.
Soybean meal has reversed from yesterday’s higher close. After making a new high this session, it has given all of yesterday’s gains back and then some. Currently, meal is about six dollars per ton lower and this is keeping pressure on soybean futures.
Wheat futures have turned higher this morning, potentially finding some support on rumors that two vessels in the US Gulf are loading with SRW wheat for delivery to China. The news is unconfirmed so far, but would be considered bullish if true.
An estimated 20% of the US winter wheat crop was exposed to the bitter cold temperatures recently. However, winterkill is not expected to be a major issue at this time.
Algeria is said to have purchased up to 650,000 mt of wheat, with the majority sourced from Europe. This may be supporting Matif futures, which are trading higher this morning after making a new low yesterday. If this reversal results in a higher close, it may provide some support to the US market as well.
Russia is said to still be the world’s cheapest wheat offer, with FOB values ranging from $240 to $245 per mt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to the CFTC, money manager’s net short position in the Ag space has reached 390,000 contracts, which is the largest amount since spring of 2019. Of that amount, net short corn positions total about 230,000 contracts.
The harvest of Brazil’s first corn crop is said to be about 5% complete, and while the improving weather is too late to help that crop, conditions look like they will be much more favorable for the safrinha crop.
Friday’s increase of US corn yield to 177.3 bpa by the USDA added to bearish pressure in the market, and will be a difficult obstacle to overcome to see prices rally in any significant manner.
The USDA also increased Chinese corn production and raised their carryout by 11 mmt last week. This adds to the negativity in the market and may mean fewer sales of corn to China down the road.
Soybeans are trying to recover from Friday’s negative report. This morning, they were up over a dime, but as of this writing, much of that was given back.
Ag Rural reduced their estimate of Brazilian soybean production by 9 mmt to 150.1 mmt. For reference, the USDA is at 157 and CONAB is at 155. Other private estimates range from 145-155 mmt due to lower than expected yields.
Today’s NOPA crush data is expected to show a record 193 mb of soybeans crushed by members. If true, this would exceed the previous record from last October of 190 mb. Oil stocks may also be higher due to the large crush number.
India has extended a lower import duty on edible oils for one more year. However, they did not make any changes to the export bans on sugar, rice, or wheat.
Reportedly, over the past three weeks, 1.3 mmt of ag goods on ocean ships have been rerouted to avoid the Suez Canal. This continues to affect global freight costs as vessels try to avoid conflict with Houthi rebels.
The bitter cold affecting the US Midwest and Plains states has likely not caused much damage to the winter wheat crop, as many areas have snow cover. Also, the moisture from the recent storms will be beneficial for the crops.
India has suggested that they may have a better than expected wheat crop, which may be around 114 mmt. This is above the USDA estimate and if true, might mean they do not have to import wheat this year.
Despite Friday’s roughly 1.5 million acre reduction estimate for US wheat plantings, the increased production estimates for Russia, Australia, and Canada added bearish pressure to the market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 15, 2024, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’24
453.75
-4
JUL ’24
474.75
-4.25
DEC ’24
486.25
-3.5
Soybeans
MAR ’24
1235.75
-0.75
JUL ’24
1254.25
-1.75
NOV ’24
1203.75
-3.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24
601.25
-2.5
JUL ’24
622.25
-2.5
JUL ’25
659.25
0
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24
612
-4
JUL ’24
620.5
-5
JUL ’25
653.75
0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24
698.25
-1.75
JUL ’24
716.25
-2.25
SEP ’24
726.25
-1.25
S&P 500
MAR ’24
4815.75
0.25
Crude Oil
MAR ’24
73.09
1
Gold
APR ’24
2077.4
38.4
US missile attacks against Houthi positions in Yemen may continue to raise tensions in the Red Sea region which will impact trade routes and shipping costs. This is also likely why crude oil is rallying this morning and providing some support to the grain complex as a whole.
Funds are estimated to hold 200,000 short corn contracts, which indicates they are expecting a continued bearish outlook. However, any friendly news could mean that this will lead to a short covering rally.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn crop is rated 95% good to excellent, a 2% decline from last week.
Argentina’s inflation is said to have reached 211%. This may lead to farmers there holding onto their grain, which may in turn help the US grain export market.
Rainfall totals in Mato Grosso, Brazil will decline for the next couple of weeks. They have received enough rain over the past few weeks that this shouldn’t cause much issue. Some of the other areas of Brazil that have been drier, however, may get good rain coverage over the next week or two.
Currently, funds remain short soybeans and soybean oil, but are long meal.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean crop is rated 97% normal to excellent, a 1% decline from last week.
China is said to have purchased 99.4 mmt of soybeans for the year, but most of that has been sourced from Brazil.
Yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures had a reversal off the high that ended with a lower close. That offers no support to the US market, and those contracts are trading lower again this morning.
The major winter storm moving across the Midwest should bring heavy amounts of snow and rain. The areas that receive snow cover should be ok, but there may be damage to wheat in areas without it as temperatures are expected to be well below zero in the next few days.
Funds are still net short both Chicago and KC wheat, which like corn, indicates a bearish outlook. However, friendly news could trigger a rally if funds begin to exit positions.
March Chicago wheat is trading just below the 40 and 50-day moving averages, which are converged around the 606 area. While that contract has traded both sides of those averages recently, it is also near oversold levels; this consolidation might indicate wheat is due for a break to the upside.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 15, 2024, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’24
458.75
-0.75
JUL ’24
479.25
-2
DEC ’24
489.25
-2.75
Soybeans
MAR ’24
1238.25
1.75
JUL ’24
1255.75
0.5
NOV ’24
1207.75
2.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24
605.5
-5.25
JUL ’24
626
-5.75
JUL ’25
661.75
-4.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24
617
-7.5
JUL ’24
625
-8.25
JUL ’25
652.75
-8.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24
702.5
-5.25
JUL ’24
721.5
-4.75
SEP ’24
733.5
-2
S&P 500
MAR ’24
4778.25
-42
Crude Oil
MAR ’24
73.7
2.26
Gold
APR ’24
2049.6
1.8
Corn is trading slightly lower today, but the March contract is currently around 7-cents off Tuesday’s low as funds do some short covering ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
CONAB has lowered their estimate for the Brazilian 23/24 corn crop to 117.6 mmt, which is down from 118.53 mmt the previous month. Argentina on the other hand has increased their estimate for this season’s corn production by 3 mmt to a record 59 mmt.
The first flash sale since December 19 was reported this morning of 175,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 year as the US window for corn exports begins to open.
Corn export sales today were on the low end of expectations at 19.2 mb for 23/24 and last week’s export shipments of 40.8 mb were below the 45.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
Soybeans were significantly higher in the overnight after drier Brazil forecasts came out for next week, but those gains have faded with soybeans unchanged to slightly higher on the day.
Soybean meal has turned lower from its earlier highs, but soybean oil is still trading higher with support from palm oil and crude oil.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised its expectations for their soybean crop by 2 mmt to 52 mmt. Last year, Argentina only produced 34 mmt of soybeans. The USDA’s December estimate for Argentinian soy production was 48 mmt.
Last week’s export sales for soybeans were disappointing at 10.3 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 31.7 mb were above the 24.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary estimates were to China, Mexico, and Japan.
All three wheat classes are now trading lower with the recent snowfall over much of the winter wheat area providing cover for the crop.
Some areas in the Midwest and Plains are forecast to receive below zero temperatures and ice which could damage the crop and give support to prices.
In tomorrow’s WASDE report, traders will be focused on the winter seeding numbers. The Dow Jones survey is looking for a decline of 800,000 acres to 35.8 million acres, but some analysts are expecting a larger drop.
Last week’s export sales for wheat were below expectations at 4.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 21.5 mb were above the 16.8 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to China, the Philippines, and Mexico.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
