Corn is trading lower ahead of the WASDE report despite another week of solid export sales, a flash sale reported this morning, and an expected reduction in Brazilian production.
The USDA reported an increase of 48.0 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, which was up 17% from the previous week, but down 6% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments last week of 40.8 mb were below the 44.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary Destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and Japan.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 200,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia for the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybeans are trading higher near midday following a bullish CONAB report, which saw Brazilian soybean production below the 150 mmt mark. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
The USDA reported another poor week of soybean export sales today, with sales below the lowest range of estimates at 12.5 mb for 23/24. This was down 25% from the prior 4-week average.
Export shipments of 60.8 mb last week were well above the 22.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Mexico.
CONAB is estimating Brazilian soybean production lower at 149.40 mmt, which is well below the USDA’s last guess of 157 mmt. This would be down 3.4% from last year.
All three wheat classes are trading significantly lower this morning and are pulling corn lower as well. Wheat has remained in a tight trading range on little fresh news.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was within expectations, up 17% from the previous week, but down 6% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of wheat were 11.6 mb and were below the 17.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Indonesia, Canada, and Nigeria.
Today’s WASDE report should hold few surprises for wheat as US and world ending stocks are not expected to change, but US exports could increase slightly.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today, but has come off its earlier morning lows significantly. March corn made a new low this morning at 432 ¾.
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report and is expected to lower Brazilian corn production by 3 mmt to 124.3 mmt, and Argentinian production is expected to be unchanged.
Brazil is now over 20% planted with their safrinha corn crop, which is about double their pace from last year. Rainy conditions have been favorable.
Argentina’s weather has been hot and dry recently, which may put a dent in their overall corn production, but rains are forecast to begin in the country later this week.
Soybeans are trading lower today along with corn, but have also come significantly off their earlier morning lows, which saw the March contract take out Monday’s low.
Soybean meal is trading lower again today, while soybean oil is higher. Crush margins have narrowed, but remain profitable and have generated good domestic demand.
For tomorrow’s WASDE report, analysts are expecting Brazilian production to be lowered from the previous guess of 157 mmt to 153 mmt. Most analysts expect the true number to be between 145 and 150 mmt.
For 23/24, Brazil’s soybean sales are estimated at 31.9% of its total production. That would be up from 29.1% the previous year.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today despite lower corn and soybeans, but wheat remains in a narrow trend, unable to rally higher with Russian values so inexpensive.
The export duty for Russian wheat has been increased to 4.8% to 3,804.6 rubles per tonne.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent, which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release the December 31 stocks and all-wheat, which is estimated to be 20.7 mmt, which would compare to 22.3 mmt last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday with the front months softer relative to the deferred. Yesterday, prices closed unchanged as corn trades in a sideways pattern near its lows.
Argentina’s weather has been hot and dry recently, which may put a dent in their overall corn production, but rains are forecast to begin in the country later this week.
Thursday’s WASDE report is expected to see Brazilian corn production lowered from the USDA’s last estimate of 127 mmt to an average trade guess of 124.3 mmt. Some private estimates are as low as 115 mmt.
While yesterday’s export inspections report was poor, export demand has been supported by purchases from Mexico, and corn exports are on a decent pace for the year.
Soybeans are trading higher today after a higher day of trade yesterday, thanks to strong export inspections. Soybean meal has recovered from earlier this morning and is now near unchanged, while soybean oil is higher.
The dryness in Argentina may hurt their soybean crop along with corn, but in Brazil, weather has been much more favorable with scattered showers throughout most of the country.
Analysts expect the USDA to lower Brazilian soybean production on Thursday from 157 mmt to an average guess of around 153 mmt. Argentinian production is up in the air with the recent dry spell.
For 23/24, Brazil’s soybean sales are estimated at 31.9% of its total production. That would be up from 29.1% the previous year.
All three wheat classes are now trading higher today after lower prices this morning. The US dollar is also lower this morning, and the move lower would typically be supportive to wheat.
Russia’s consultancy, IKAR, has reported that Russian FOB values have fallen to as low as $228 per metric ton from as high as $235/mt a week ago on higher production estimates.
Ukraine is said to have targeted an oil refinery deep within Russian territory, increasing tension in the Black Sea. Despite the tensions, large volumes of wheat continue to be exported out of that part of the world.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent, which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Over the weekend there were attacks by the US on Houthi positions in Yemen. Markets appear largely unfazed by this news, but it could potentially lead to more aggression against vessels in the Red Sea as well as US positions in the Middle East.
This week’s USDA report is expected to have relatively few changes, but US grain exports could be reduced due to strong global competition.
Argentina was hot and dry over the weekend, but both the American and European weather models are in agreement that Argentina will have good chances for rain later in the week.
Private exporters reported sales of 155,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year.
Funds are said to be short about 280,000 corn contracts as of last Tuesday. This is their largest short position in corn since 2020.
Despite trying to stimulate it, China’s economy continues to lag. This is also cause for concern that they will have lower food demand and import less feed and protein.
CFTC data showed that the fund’s short positions in the soy complex continued to grow, adding to pressure on futures. If they begin to exit these positions, it could lead to a short covering rally, but so far they have little incentive to do so.
Brazil’s soybean production is estimated to be 157 mmt by the USDA and 155 mmt by CONAB. However, private estimates continue to be lower than both, ranging from 135 mmt to 150 mmt. This could mean that the USDA will lower their estimate on this week’s WASDE report.
The next 10 days or so are forecasted to by wet for key growing regions of Brazil. This may slow soybean harvest there. However, harvest pace is still above the five year average due to earlier dryness that led to quicker maturity. According to Ag Rural, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 16% complete.
The US Dollar Index continues to rise after last week’s jobs report, putting more pressure on the wheat market.
Ukraine is said to have targeted an oil refinery deep within Russian territory, increasing tension in the Black Sea. Despite the tensions, large volumes of wheat continue to be exported out of that part of the world.
Russian wheat export values are reported to have declined again, to $229-$231 per mt FOB. Until the US export market picks up, it will be hard for wheat to rally in any significant manner, and with the cheap values out of Russia, that will be a difficult task.
Rains hitting the US west coast are leading to flooding in California, with what is being called a potentially historic storm. That system is expected to move east this week, bringing more moisture to the winter wheat regions. The crop is already in much better shape compared to last year, but this may further improve conditions.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
This morning’s data from the Labor Department showed that the unemployment rate was steady at 3.7% versus an expected increase to 3.8%. Additionally, 353,000 jobs were added last month. This may indicate that the US economy is doing better than some expected and may also affect the Fed’s next decision on interest rate cuts.
Corn export sales data yesterday showed that they continue to be ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 2.1 bb for 23/24.
The US ag attaché for Argentina increased their corn production estimate to 57 mmt, which is 2 mmt over the USDA’s projection. This is a result of higher planted acreage, and anticipation of good weather in the coming months.
According to the US drought monitor, about 28% of the corn area is experiencing drought. This is down from 33% last week, but down significantly from 45% a year ago.
Yesterday’s Fats & Oils report showed soybean oil stocks a bit higher than the expectation. In addition, December soybean crush at 204 mb was up from 200 mb in November, and also 17 mb higher than a year ago.
With the recent heat and dryness, Argentina’s soybean condition is declining. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the crop is rated 36% good to excellent vs 44% previously.
Rain is expected to start late next week in Argentina that may bring some relief and recharge soil moisture. However, this is a departure from earlier forecasts that suggested rain would start early next week. If the precipitation does materialize, general coverage of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is expected.
After making a new contract low yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures reversed to post a positive close. They are trading higher again today, which may be offering a boost to the US market. This could be related to news that French farmers have called off their blockades of roadways in major cities. They were reportedly protesting strict government regulations, fewer subsidies, and higher input costs.
Rumors that China may have interest in both French and US wheat are also supportive and may be keeping wheat futures afloat this morning in the face of lower corn and soybeans. However, there has not yet been any confirmation of purchases.
Today a storm is expected to bring moisture to the wheat areas of the US southern plains, benefiting crops there, but may potentially offer weakness to the market. According to the US drought monitor map, just 17% of the winter wheat area is experiencing drought versus 58% a year ago at this time.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday in a narrow range following two consecutively higher closes to end the month of January. Export sales were good, but the prospect of a large South American crop continues to pressure prices.
For the week ending January 25, the USDA reported an increase of 47.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. This was on the higher end of expectations and was up 31% year over year.
Export shipments of corn were 35.9 mb but were still below the 45.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
The January Cattle Inventory report which was released yesterday showed the US cattle herd falling to its lowest numbers since 1951 which could impact feed demand in a big way.
Soybeans are trading lower today after two consecutively higher trading days that combined for a gain of 27 cents. Prices are backing off today with pressure from poor export sales, lower soybean meal, but higher bean oil.
For the week ending January 25, the USDA reported an increase of 6.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. This was a marketing year low, below the lowest trade guess, and down 19% from the previous year.
Export shipments of soybeans last week were 34.9 mb and were above the 23.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
Argentinian weather is still forecast to be hot and dry in the short-term forecast, but overall, weather conditions have been good and production estimates have been increased to 52 mmt.
Wheat is mostly higher at midday with the front months leading the deferreds across the board. While soybeans remain lower, the firm tone in wheat futures may be supporting corn a bit.
For the week ending January 25, the USDA reported an increase of 11.8 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower side of the trading range but up 4% from the previous year.
Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 17.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.
India is in jeopardy of warmer weather damaging its wheat crop with forecasts for the month of February warmer than normal while rains may be above normal.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Crude oil is trading lower this morning, which may be adding some pressure on the grain complex. Tension in the middle east may be supportive to oil prices, but resistance is coming from lower potential demand, especially from China.
At these lower price levels, farmers continue to be slow sellers of corn domestically, and may be providing some support to prices. However, increased global competition may hinder any significant rallies.
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund said that they believe the world economy will improve in the second quarter. If true, this may provide some long term support in the marketplace, though there is still concern about Chinese economic issues with poor manufacturing data four months in a row.
The European weather model shows that Argentina will receive some relief from the current hot and dry conditions in just over a week.
There is talk that China may have purchased five to six cargoes of Brazilian soybeans recently.
Private estimates of Brazil’s soybean crop are still well below the USDA’s 157 mmt figure. If the USDA revises production lower on the Feb 8 WASDE report, it would offer some support to soybean futures.
On tomorrow’s crush report, there is expected to be a record December US soybean crush at 206 mb. If true, that would be up from 200 mb in November, and compares to 187 mb last year.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is said to be 11% complete, and their premiums have been dropping lately, which has been pressuring US futures.
With recent news that China will allow wheat imports from Argentina for the first time, there is some talk that Brazil might come to the US for their wheat needs that they normally get from Argentina.
March Paris milling wheat futures made a new contract low today, which is offering no support to the US market.
Russia continues to be the dominant force on the export front, and reportedly their crops are rated 96% good to satisfactory.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The grain complex is trading higher at midday, potentially seeing a technical bounce off of yesterday’s lows, leading to some short covering by the funds.
Argentina will be hot and dry for much of this week. This may stress crops especially in the southern area of the country. However, rain is expected next week which should help to keep crop conditions favorable.
Brazil’s weather forecast looks mostly favorable. Heavy showers will fall across most of the northern growing region this week before shifting to the south. This may cause some soybean harvest delays, but the moisture should be beneficial in any case.
There have been rumors that US importers may have purchased three cargoes of Brazilian soybeans. Brazil premiums have been dropping and are said to be $60-$70 per ton below that of the US, adding incentive for imports.
Soybean oil has been trending lower and may be limiting the upside in soybean futures. Renewable diesel data will be released tomorrow, but lower biodiesel RINS might indicate that there is currently more supply than demand.
Chinese soybean oil futures were down 3.8% (a seven-month low), and Malaysian palm oil was down 2.7% on Tuesday as well. This is also adding pressure to the world vegetable oils markets.
Select US states reported winter wheat conditions yesterday afternoon. Kansas, the largest wheat producing state, rated the crop at 54% good to excellent. This compares to just 21% GTE at this time last year.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat FOB values declined by another three dollars, to only $235 per mt. Russian exports continue to outpace other origins, which should keep pressure on the US wheat market.
Recent private estimates suggest a higher Australian wheat crop compared to the USDA estimate due to more rains and improved yields. This could lead to a revision higher on the next WASDE report on February 8.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Chinese real estate conglomerate Evergrande was ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court. They reportedly owe $300 billion. China is said to also be facing their worst property market in nine years. With their economy already struggling, this news may further pressure financial and commodity markets.
An outbreak of bird flu in California is leading to an egg shortage there. More importantly, this could also lower feed consumption and demand.
According to the CFTC, the combined short position by managed money in the grain complex is the third largest ever. Funds, as of January 16 hold a net short in corn of more than 265,000 contracts – the most since June 2020.
On Wednesday afternoon, traders will receive the results of the FOMC meeting. Expectations are for the Fed to keep rates steady.
According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 9% complete, compared to 4.4% at this time last year.
Argentina should have another week or so of warm and dry weather. But rain is in the forecast for the following week, which may be pressuring the soybean market.
Although many private estimates of Brazil’s soybean crop are below the USDA’s projection, Brazilian export premiums are falling. This may indicate that their soybean crop is bigger than these estimates would suggest.
With both Chinese palm oil and soybean oil down on Monday, US soybean oil is also under pressure this morning.
The wheat market may be facing some weakness due to comments by the Egyptian minister that they may only import 7 mmt of wheat this year. This is interesting, given the fact that historically they import about 12 mmt, and the drought in north Africa is said to be expanding.
Russian wheat FOB offers have decreased by five dollars compared to last week, now said to be $240 per mt. This is also weighing on US futures.
May Paris milling wheat futures have a small gap lower to start the week. The weakness in that market is also pressuring US futures but is interesting given the belief that EU and UK wheat production could be 6-8 mmt below last year.
Headlines that three US servicemen were killed in drone attacks in Jordan may further escalate tensions in the Middle East, and lend support to the wheat market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today as South American weather has turned slightly more favorable to end the month, and while export demand has picked up, it is still more sluggish than traders had hoped.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised their estimate for Argentina’s corn crop to 56.5 mmt from their last estimate of 55.0 mmt, but good to excellent ratings in the country have slipped by 5 points to 41%.
Sales of ethanol within Brazil have significantly risen this month as they are reportedly running out of storage due to a bumper crop. Total ethanol sales have risen by 44% year over year.
Ethanol production in the US was down sharply last week at only 236,000 barrels per day, but it appeared to be an isolated event that was due to the extreme cold and weather.
Soybeans are trading lower again today after yesterday’s sharp selloff due to pressure from lower soybean meal and an improved South American forecast.
The value of soybean meal and oil have fallen at a slightly more rapid pace than soybeans recently causing crush margins to narrow. This may cause processors to crush fewer bushels.
This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000 tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. This comes after disappointing export sales yesterday.
As harvest advances in Brazil, cash prices in the country point to a crop that may not be as damaged as previously believed. March cash soybeans in Brazil are nearly $2 per bushel cheaper than US prices.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with Chicago wheat posting the largest losses, and the March contract has now fallen well below the 100-day moving average.
There are new reports that China is in talks with Iran to rein in the attacks on ships in the Red Sea or face damaging business relationships with Beijing.
Yesterday’s export sales were nothing to get excited about, but 3 mb of wheat were shipped to China, and 28 mb of wheat have been shipped so far with 60 mb more to go.
Some of the support in wheat has come from ships adding costs from having to travel around Africa to avoid the Red Sea which started talks that the US may be a more viable option for purchases.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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