Corn is trading lower near midday and is on track for the third consecutively lower close with the March contract currently down 15 cents on the week. Selling pressure by the non-commercials continues to push prices lower as they near a new record short position.
For the week ending February 15, the USDA reported an increase of 32.3 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was at the lower end of expectations and puts year to date commitments up 29% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 40.3 mb were below the 45.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Exports would be significantly lower without the business from Mexico.
Soybeans are trading lower near midday with significantly larger losses in the front months than in November. March soybeans have officially taken out their low from last year and have made a new all-time contract low. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
The USDA has reported an increase of only 2.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, which was way below expectations and a marketing year low. There were net cancellations by China which could become a theme with Brazilian soybean so much cheaper than the US. Year to date commitments are now 20% below that of last year.
Export shipments for last week of 44.0 mb were significantly higher than 19.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.720 bb. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.
All three US wheat futures classes are trading in negative territory this morning, alongside a mixed trade in Matif wheat. The US Dollar Index is consolidating around the 104 level, and spillover pressure from lower corn and soybeans is not helping the situation.
The USDA reported an increase of 8.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.7 mb of 24/25. Shipments last week at 13.7 mb were under the pace needed of 17.7 mb per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 725 mb of exports in 23/24.
Japan is said to have purchased a total of 115,000 mt of wheat – it was sourced from Canada, Australia, and the US. South Korea is also said to be tendering for 136,000 mt of wheat, with hopes that the US gains some of that business.
The ag minister of France said that their wheat is rated at 69% good to excellent, versus 95% GTE at this time last year. Wet weather during planting has already reduced the sowing of their crop, and weather is also blamed as the reason for the decline in condition compared with a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower today after yesterday’s move lower with little fresh news apart from crop scouts and analysts adjusting their expectations for South American corn production lower. The Rosario Board of Trade reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 5% to 49.5 mmt.
While futures have recovered slightly from the overnight trade, they made new contract lows overnight and continue to grind lower. Pressure has come from cheap Ukrainian corn offers that are reportedly as much as 60 cents under US offers.
Estimates ahead of the weekly EIA report for the week ending February 16 see production lower than the previous week at 1.079 million barrels per day and the stockpile estimate increasing to 25.982m bbl which would be the highest level since March of last year.
Soybeans are trading lower today, falling to the lowest level since June as non-commercials continue to add to their short position, bringing it to a new record short of 162,000 contracts. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher along with palm oil.
South American weather remains favorable, but analysts are still mixed about the size of production. The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 33% complete, but estimates range from as low as 145 mmt to as high as the USDA’s estimate of 156 mmt.
Soybean oil could be the bullish component in the soy complex as the outlook for renewable diesel capacity is encouraging and expected to increase by another 1.4 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with KC wheat posting the most gains. There has been little bullish news for wheat, so the move appears technical with futures having been very oversold which likely triggered short covering.
Some support may be coming from the current administrations plans to sanction Russia which could be announced as soon as tomorrow, but there is still pressure from the cheap Ukrainian wheat that is being offered to compete with Russia’s low prices.
Russia’s agricultural minister has reported that Moscow has now shipped 200,000 tonnes of free grain to six African countries fulfilling the countries pledge that was made last year by Putin.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today and has wiped out all of yesterday’s gains to make new contract lows in both the March and May contracts. An improvement in South American weather and cheaper Ukrainian corn offers have put pressure on futures.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now estimated to be over 45% planted which compares to 33% at this time last year, but some analysts believe that 25% to 30% of the crop was planted outside the ideal window which could result in a smaller crop than the USDA is forecasting.
The current administration has approved a request by governors in the Midwest to allow year-round sales of gasoline with 15% ethanol beginning in 2025.
Soybeans are trading lower after yesterday’s higher close and have erased all of those gains and then some as a large South American crop looms along with an expected increase in planted soybean acres in the US.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today with March bean oil trading near its contract lows. Higher crude oil prices have not been supportive as palm oil has dragged soybean oil down with it.
Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated to be over 30% harvested, and estimates for total production are still being lowered. Agroconsult sees production at 152.2 mmt which is a reduction of 1.6 mmt, and another crop scout is estimating production at 145 mmt, far below the USDA’s last estimate of 156 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but yesterday’s gains of over 20 cents have kept prices well off their recent lows. Export sales weren’t strong enough to necessarily warrant that rally, and it was likely a rebound from oversold conditions.
Russian consultancy firm, IKAR, has reported that Russian FOB values for 12.5% protein hard wheat have fallen another $5 per metric ton to $218 this week which further pressures US wheat prices.
Russia’s agricultural minister has reported that Moscow has now shipped 200,000 tonnes of free grain to six African countries fulfilling the countries pledge that was made last year by Putin.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading near the lower end of its trading range and off its earlier morning highs. Funds currently hold their largest net short position in four years, and it is likely very close to the record large short position.
This morning, the USDA reported that 155,000 metric tons of corn were sold to Japan for the 24/25 marketing season. This along with China being back from holiday could be supportive to exports.
Central Brazil and Argentina received a considerable amount of rain over the weekend with more expected this week. A prominent crop scout has pegged Brazil’s production at 125.9 mmt which compares to the USDA’s 124 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed off their highs this morning along with corn. Soybeans also gapped higher on the open after the long weekend with support from China’s announcement to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
This morning, the USDA reported a sale of 228,000 metric tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 23/24 marketing period.
In Brazil, soybean premiums improved last week despite the ongoing harvest. Farmers were unwilling to sell at the low prices causing premiums to improve.
Wheat is trading mostly higher today and so far, is the star of the grain complex with the largest gains after it bounced off its lows at 555 ¼ for the March contract.
In France, the wheat crop conditions have been deteriorating and now only 68% of the crop is rated good to excellent. Those are the worst ratings since 2020 and compare to last year’s rating of 93% at this time.
Australia is currently forecast to be hit by a third tropical cyclone within two months with a system forming off the northern coast and could make landfall near Queensland. This could be detrimental to the wheat crop there.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’24
418
0.25
JUL ’24
440.5
0.75
DEC ’24
457.75
1
Soybeans
MAR ’24
1172
9.75
JUL ’24
1183.5
8.25
NOV ’24
1149.5
8.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24
564.5
-2.5
JUL ’24
565.25
-4.75
JUL ’25
610
-1.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24
568.5
-7.25
JUL ’24
555.75
-7.75
JUL ’25
610.25
0
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24
656.5
-1.5
JUL ’24
659.75
-3
SEP ’24
669
-1.5
S&P 500
MAR ’24
5045.75
-0.75
Crude Oil
APR ’24
77.83
0.24
Gold
APR ’24
2022.5
7.6
Corn has traded on both sides of unchanged so far today as funds likely take some profits ahead of the three-day weekend. Between Wednesday and Thursday, March corn lost 13 cents.
The USDA’s outlook numbers showed planted corn acres falling to 91 million acres with a trendline yield of 181 bpa used to project an ending stocks number of 2.532 bb.
Export sales for corn are currently running 30% above the previous year in large part thanks to Mexico who has been a top buyer. Ukraine has been an aggressive seller of cheap wheat however and is tough competition for US exports.
Soybeans are trading higher today as they recover from a very negative week overall. The Outlook Forum numbers were not particularly friendly, and neither were yesterday’s export sales numbers.
Soybean meal is trading higher today while soybean oil is lower. Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed January crush numbers falling slightly from December to 185.78 mb, likely due to the cold snap mid-month. This was below last month’s record crush but was still a record high crush for January.
For the week, March soybeans are currently on track for a loss of about 10 cents, March soybean meal is on track for a slight loss of $2.00, and March soybean oil is on track for a loss of 1.60 cents.
Wheat is mixed today with Chicago and KC lower, while Minneapolis trades slightly higher. KC wheat is leading the complex lower with the winter wheat crop improving.
Chicago wheat was previously trading within a narrow trade range but has broken out lower over the past few days and is now just 8 cents off its contract low.
The soft wheat crop in France is now in worse condition than the 2023 crop with just 68% rated good to excellent as of February 12. At this time last year, the crop was rated at 93% good to excellent.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’24
421.5
-2.75
JUL ’24
444.75
-2.5
DEC ’24
461
-3.25
Soybeans
MAR ’24
1164.75
-5.75
JUL ’24
1178.75
-7.5
NOV ’24
1144.75
-10.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24
580.75
-4.75
JUL ’24
579.25
-5
JUL ’25
619.5
-4.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24
583.5
-4.25
JUL ’24
570.5
-5.5
JUL ’25
617.75
-4.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24
665
2.5
JUL ’24
668.25
-0.5
SEP ’24
677.5
1.25
S&P 500
MAR ’24
5019
1
Crude Oil
APR ’24
77.63
1.27
Gold
APR ’24
2012.3
8
Corn is trading slightly lower today following this morning’s USDA Outlook Forum numbers and export sales that were both within expectations.
For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 51.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. This was towards the higher end of expectations and exports are currently up 30% on the year.
Corn export shipments of 35.6 mb were below the 45.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
The USDA’s outlook numbers showed planted corn acres falling to 91 million acres with a trendline yield of 181 bpa used to project an ending stocks number of 2.532 bb.
Soybeans are trading lower today in choppy back and forth trade following the USDA’s outlook numbers that projected an increase in planted soybean acres.
For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. Export sales were on the lower end of expectations and sales are now 19% behind a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 53.4 mb were well above the 20.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Spain.
The USDA’s outlook numbers for soybeans show an increase in planted acres to 87.5 million acres from 83.6 ma last year with their trendline yield projecting ending stocks at 435 mb.
Wheat is trading mixed at midday with Chicago and KC lower but Minneapolis wheat trading higher. Today’s outlook numbers were within expectations, but export sales were poor.
For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 12.8 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.8 mb for 24/25. This was towards the lower range of estimates and puts total sales 7% above a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 14.9 mb were below the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.
In France, 23/24 soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5 mmt which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Grain markets are lower at midday, with wheat leading the way down. Part of the weakness stems from anticipation of bearish numbers during this week’s Outlook Forum. Despite these not being official estimates, the trade may react to what the USDA says anyway.
The average trade guess for corn carryout at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum is 2.49 bb. In addition, corn yield is expected to be increased by five to six bushels above last year’s 177.3 bpa. This may be somewhat offset by lower acres.
Central Brazil looks to be dry for the next couple days, but widespread rains are expected to return to both the central and northern areas for the remainder of the month. Southern regions of Brazil, as well as Argentina, look to remain on the drier side.
The average trade guess for soybean carryout at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum is 420 mb. In addition, both acreage and yield are expected to rise, leading to potential production of over 4.4 bb.
Malaysia reported the lowest palm oil production for nine months, which had palm oil up 1.1%. So far, soybean oil is not showing much reaction and is trading in negative territory at the time of this writing.
March soybeans in Paranagua, Brazil are around the equivalent of $11.06 FOB this morning; this compares to $12.34 in New Orleans and these lower prices in South America are a bearish factor for the market.
The average trade guess for wheat carryout at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum is 720 mb.
According to APK-Inform, Ukraine’s grain exports have reached 25.2 mmt as of February 9. With 80 mmt of grain harvested in 2023, they are reportedly on track to export their entire 50 mmt surplus before the end of the season in June. This is despite Russian attacks and infrastructure damage.
The International Grains Council said this morning that weekly wheat prices dropped in Argentina, Canada, Europe, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine – this may explain some of this session’s weakness in wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Ag Rural raised their estimate of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop by 5 mmt to 91.2 mmt due to favorable planting conditions and less of a drop in planted acreage than previously estimated.
South American weather looks mostly favorable, with timely rains expected later this week for southern growing regions of Brazil.
Ethanol production is up 4% compared to a year ago; tomorrow’s data from the EIA is likely to show production over 1 million barrels per day.
This morning the Labor Department said that consumer prices are up 3.1% versus last year which was higher than expected. This is pressuring the equity markets, which may offer some spillover pressure to commodities.
Weekly inspections data showed 29.9 mb of soybeans inspected for shipment to China. This is some friendly news despite the concerns surrounding their economy.
In addition to the USDA ag outlook forum later this week, CONAB on Thursday will also release crush data from last month.
According to Ag Rural, Brazil’s soybean crop is 23% harvested versus 17% at this time last year. That may indicate that yields are lower than normal, which would support the idea that many private estimates are below both the official CONAB and USDA numbers.
Texas reported their winter wheat conditions yesterday. The crop rating declined by 4% to 42% good to excellent. Additionally, 19% of the crop is headed.
Jordan is tendering for 120,000 mt of wheat, while Japan is also tendering for 115,000 mt.
Wheat prices in both France and Australia are near two-year lows, creating a bearish tone from a global perspective.
The US Dollar Index is up sharply this morning as a result of the inflation data. This is putting pressure on all three US wheat classes.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn closed below the 430 level on Friday and has been on both sides of that area today, but in a relatively tight 5-cent trading range. The market may still be trying to figure out whether to trade the USDA or CONAB numbers, in which CONAB lowered Brazilian production more than the USDA last week.
According to the CFTC, the non-commercial net short position in corn is the third largest on record. This could mean the market is primed for a short covering rally, but it may take a spark of friendly news to light that fire.
This week will feature the annual USDA ag outlook forum. Last year at the forum the USDA estimated corn acres at 91 million, compared to 94.6 in reality.
In general, the US is looking at increased competition in corn from South America, as well as increased Ukrainian exports. Right now, Ukraine offers the cheapest corn on the world market.
Both Brazil and Argentina are expected to receive good rains this week. This will likely keep pressure on the soybean market in general, especially as the recent rains in Argentina have helped to stabilize the crop.
At last year’s ag outlook forum, the USDA estimated soybean acreage at 87.5 million. The actual number of acres planted came out at 83.6.
Chinese demand will be key going forward. However, not much is expected this week, due to the fact that their nation is on Golden Week holiday. In addition, Brazil is also currently on holiday, celebrating Carnival.
According to Ag Rural, the Brazilian soybean harvest is ahead of last year’s pace, with 23% of the crop collected, versus 17% at this time last year.
According to Ukraine’s Ag Minister, their winter wheat acres are down from last year and production may also be down. However, spring wheat acres may be higher, potentially offsetting this concern.
At last year’s ag outlook forum, the USDA estimated 49.5 million acres of wheat planted. This was close to the actual result, at 49.6 million acres.
March Chicago wheat is near the middle of the range on some technical momentum indicators, including stochastics and the RSI. The stochastics in particular are getting close to a buy crossover signal, which can indicate a contract may have upside potential. However, Chicago wheat may need to rally above 600 resistance to affirm this signal.
Russian wheat export values continue to be a major limiting factor. While they are said to be up slightly from last week (now at $235 per mt FOB) that is still well below the $250 level at the end of 2023.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today following a bearish USDA report yesterday. March corn is on track for a loss on the week.
Yesterday, private exporters reported a sale of 200,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia for the 23/24 marketing year. For now, US corn is relatively competitive globally.
The Argentinian corn crop was slightly damaged by the recent hot and dry spell, but upcoming rains are expected to reactivate the crop.
Yesterday, the USDA estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 124 mmt and the Argentinian crop at 55 mmt. CONAB released numbers for Brazilian corn far lower than the USDA at 114 mmt.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s bearish USDA report. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower, while crude oil is higher.
Yesterday, soybeans closed higher as traders were mixed as they weighed USDA production estimates for Brazil against the much lower CONAB estimates. Historically, the USDA is typically more accurate.
At this point, March and November soybeans are set to post a loss on the week, and funds were sellers of an estimated 1,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. There has been little motivation for funds to stop selling grains.
In yesterday’s USDA report, export demand was reduced by 35 mb, which points to poor export demand. Domestic demand has been solid, but exports are below last year’s pace.
The wheat complex is trading mostly higher today, with Chicago leading the way. Overall, wheat remains in a very tight trading range.
March Chicago wheat is on track for a slight gain on the week at this point, but yesterday, non-commercials were estimated to have sold 6,000 contracts of wheat adding to their short position.
The Indian government announced that it would reduce the stock limits of wheat for traders and large chain retailers to avoid an artificial scarcity of wheat.
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed domestic wheat demand in the US falling, which was a surprise. This caused ending stocks to increase by 10 mb.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
