Census data yesterday indicated that the US exported 27% more ethanol in January when compared with a year earlier. Additionally, total 2023 exports were up 7% from 2022 and ethanol production is said to be running 5% above the level from a year ago.
The US corn export commitment is up 27% versus last year. The USDA is expecting an increase of 26% so it is doubtful that there will be any adjustments made in today’s report.
Argentina has more rain in the forecast, and their crops are already in pretty good shape. This should benefit later planted crops but may cause some delays for the corn harvest that has just begun.
There are rumors that China purchased US corn from the PNW, however, there has been no official confirmation yet.
The US soybean export commitment is down 19% from last year. However, the USDA is forecasting a 12% decline, leading some to believe that they may lower the export number on today’s report.
CONAB is estimating Brazil’s soybean crop at 149.4 mmt, but some private estimates are at 145 mmt or below. The USDA is currently well above these estimates.
May soybean oil futures broke above the 21-day moving average yesterday, and above the 40-day moving average during the current session. However, they have since reversed and are currently trading below both averages.
Palm oil is higher for the third week in a row due to tightening supply and expectations for solid demand.
Another cancellation of US SRW wheat sales to China for the 23/24 season was announced this morning, this time for 110,000 mt. This may be already somewhat baked into the market, however, as wheat is up slightly this morning while corn and soybeans are lower.
The US Dollar Index has been falling over the past few sessions and is now around 102.50. This may ease some of the pressure on wheat futures seen recently.
Egypt reportedly cancelled their wheat tender because prices were too high out of Russia and Ukraine. Given the continued drop in Black Sea values recently, as well as lower US prices, this is somewhat surprising. Perhaps this indicates that they are holding out for more of a decline.
Funds are still net short a hefty 85,000 Chicago wheat contracts. This keeps the market primed for a short covering rally, but it may first take some friendly news to act as the catalyst.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The average pre-report estimate of US 23/24 corn carryout comes in at 2.141 bb, down slightly from 2.172 bb in February. The world ending stocks number is pegged at 320.7 mmt vs 322.1 mmt last month.
Not much change is expected tomorrow regarding Argentina’s corn production, with the average pre-report estimate keeping it steady at 55.0 mmt. However, Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered from 124.0 mmt to 122.4 mmt.
The USDA reported an increase of 43.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. The USDA is estimating 2.1 bb of exports in 23/24 and last week’s shipments at 45.6 mb were just above the 45.5 mb needed per week to reach that goal.
May corn futures broke above the 21-day moving average this morning, an area that has held that contract in check since mid to late December. Not much fresh news is driving this rally, which may indicate that it is a technical correction or possibly anticipation of friendly data on tomorrow’s WASDE report.
The average pre-report estimate of US 23/24 soybean carryout comes in at 319 mb, up from 315 mb in February. The world ending stocks number is pegged at 114.5 mmt vs 116.0 mmt last month.
Argentina’s soybean production may be raised just slightly tomorrow, with the average pre-report estimate at 50.2 mmt, compared with 50.0 mmt in February. Brazil, however, is expected to show a decline in production to 152.5 mmt compared with 156.0 mmt last month.
The USDA reported an increase of 22.5 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25. The USDA is estimating 1.72 bb of exports in 23/24 and last week’s shipments at 52.1 mb were well above the 17.4 mb needed per week to reach that goal.
Unlike corn, May soybeans were not quite able to break above the 21-day moving average yet today (despite testing that level). The May contract has not traded above that moving average since the end of November 2023.
Russian wheat export values are said to have made new lows yesterday around $198/mt. For reference, US SRW offers are around $239, which keeps the US uncompetitive on the export market.
Algeria is said to have purchased between 600,000 and 900,00 mt of wheat on a tender $38/mt cheaper than the previous tender.
Increased export competition from the Black Sea and Argentina has led to sharply lower Australian wheat futures, which in turn is offering weakness to the US market.
Some precipitation is in the forecast for the US Plains on Wednesday and Thursday which should give winter wheat conditions a boost.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
One reason that the market has been struggling to rally, is competition from less expensive Ukrainian corn that is said to be offered at $168/mt, compared to the US at $189.
Talk that China will spend money in an effort to increase storage and attempt to increase corn production is offering weakness to the market; they are making efforts to become more self-sufficient and increase their food security.
This week’s weather forecast for South America looks mostly favorable for the corn crop in both Brazil and Argentina.
Traders are awaiting Friday’s WASDE report. Not much change is expected in regards to the US corn numbers. However, the focus will likely be on Brazil and just how much the USDA may adjust their production forecast.
Brazil soybeans are being offered at $413/mt, versus the US at $447. Additionally, Argentinian meal is also below US offers at around $372 per ton, compared with $397 here.
There is some talk that Brazil will start to dry out in about two weeks. If this turns out to be true, it could offer stress to the later planted crops.
Indonesia announced an increase to their domestic biofuel mandate. Ultimately this may lower their exports and affect both the palm and soybean oil markets. Palm oil is trading up 2.4% at a six-month high.
India’s February veg oil imports are down 18% for the month, and the lowest in two years.
Russian wheat export values are said to have made new lows yesterday around $198/mt. For reference, US SRW offers are around $239, which keeps the US uncompetitive on the export market.
Algeria is said to have purchased between 600,000 and 900,00 mt of wheat on a tender $38/mt cheaper than the previous tender.
Increased export competition from the Black Sea and Argentina has led to sharply lower Australian wheat futures, which in turn is offering weakness to the US market.
Some precipitation is in the forecast for the US Plains on Wednesday and Thursday which should give winter wheat conditions a boost.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday and although prices are comfortably off their contract lows that were set last Monday, futures are still encountering resistance and have fallen into a sideways trading pattern.
While US corn shipments are up 34% from a year ago, there is big competition from South America where Argentina is raising a crop that is rated 87% good to excellent while Brazil is planting with good weather conditions so far.
Friday’s WASDE report will likely have traders focusing on potential changes to South American production, but the average analyst estimates are showing that both US corn stocks and world ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
Soybeans have reversed from earlier morning lows and are now trading closer to unchanged thanks to higher soybean oil while soybean meal is lower to unchanged. Crude oil has trended higher over the past month but has not lent much support to soybean oil.
The interesting thing to watch for in Friday’s WASDE report will be if the USDA lowers its estimate for Brazilian soybean production. It has maintained the highest estimate out of the analysts at 156 mmt with most other guesses closer to 149 mmt. Regardless, South America is on pace to produce a larger soybean crop than it did last year.
In China, soybeans on the Dalian Exchange rose by 0.6% and are trading at the equivalent of $13.68. China has bought US soybeans but will likely lean more heavily on Brazil’s cheaper beans as harvest progresses.
All three wheat classes are still trading lower at midday with Chicago wheat leading the way down. There has been little friendly news to attract buyers, and May Chicago wheat made a new contract low this morning.
Winter wheat conditions have been downgraded but are still largely above average for this time of year. The good to excellent rating in Kansas fell to 53% from 57%, in Oklahoma it fell to 65% from 70%, and in Texas it fell to 43% from 46%.
In Morocco, severe drought is expected, which will likely bring a much smaller wheat crop than anticipated and will need to increase imports to make up for the country’s deficit. Production is estimated below 4 mmt, while the number budgeted by the government is 7.5 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher near midday and appears to have made a temporary bottom last week with the May contract falling to 408 ¾ before rallying back on apparent short covering.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Taiwan during the 23/24 marketing year. This was the first flash sale reported in a while and comes as Brazil and Argentina are planting their corn crops.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of February 27, funds bought back 45,474 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 295,258 contracts.
Soybeans are trading sharply higher again today after 10 cents of gains on Friday. Soybeans appear to have put in a temporary bottom along with corn with some possible short covering by managed funds.
This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations. 30,000 mt of that total is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year while the other 96,000 mt is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated at 46.05% completed which compares to 43.34% at this time last year. This Friday, the USDA will release its WASDE report and trade will look for changes in estimated production.
All three classes of wheat are trading higher near midday in a significant reversal from earlier this morning where prices were lower. Both Paris milling wheat and Chicago May wheat futures made new contract lows this morning before turning around.
With the 23/24 marketing season ending in June, US wheat export shipments are down 11% from last year. The USDA is forecasting 725 mb of wheat exports in 23/24 which is the lowest estimate in over 50 years.
In the US, winter wheat conditions are better than last year at this time, but certain parts of the country have dealt with strong winds and wildfires which are causing concerns for soil moisture levels.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
There are rumors that China is looking to buy corn from the US Pacific Northwest. No flash sales were announced this morning, but even if there had been, this may have already been priced into the market.
US ethanol production is said to be up 4.5% in 23/24, which is above the USDA’s projection.
Central Brazil has had a break from rain over the course of this week which should help their corn planting pace. However, rains are expected to return this weekend and into next week.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn crop is rated 87% fair to excellent.
Export shipments of US soybeans in 23/24 are down 21% from last year, which is below the USDA’s projected pace. This may continue to weigh on the market, especially as the US is uncompetitive with South America.
March soybean FOB values in Paranagua, Brazil are said to be about $1.05 per bu less than prices out of New Orleans.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s soybean crop, 82% fair to excellent, a 1% decrease from last week’s 83% fair to excellent rating.
According to the US Energy Department, 1.14 billion pounds of soybean oil were used to make biofuel in the month of December, an increase from November’s usage of 1.062 billion pounds.
Matif wheat is trading sharply lower this morning and near the lowest level in over three years. This may be in part what is weighing on the US market.
With the 23/24 marketing season ending in June, US wheat export shipments are down 11% from last year. The USDA is forecasting 725 mb of wheat exports in 23/24 which is the lowest estimate in over 50 years.
Some meteorologists are predicting a drier-than-normal summer, especially in the western Corn Belt. The recent wildfires in the western plains states act as a reminder of the dryness in that region; so far there is no major concern about damage to the wheat crop, though it will take time to assess.
With Russia remaining dominant on the export front and no major weather issues globally, it may be difficult for wheat to find a fundamental reason to rally.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has traded both sides of unchanged this morning. Overnight strength in the March contract was a result of zero deliveries issued today on First Notice Day. Corn was lower at the 8:30 opening, likely due to pressure from sharply lower soybeans. But as of this writing, corn is now positive as beans have started to gain some strength.
The USDA reported an increase of 42.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 6.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 47.9 mb were above the 45.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.1 bb.
Recent rains in the US have been in the delta and eastern Corn Belt. However, some precipitation is possible in the western Corn Belt next week. In South America, rains are mostly in northern Argentina and southern Brazil.
After a sharply lower opening at 8:30, soybeans are in positive territory at midday. Both soybean oil and meal have also turned positive, which is helping bean futures. It is also possible that the market is taking notice of the lower private production estimates in Brazil compared to the USDA.
There were 702 soybean deliveries issued on First Notice Day, which was higher than expected. This may have contributed to early weakness in the futures.
The USDA reported an increase of just 5.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 40.5 mb were above the 18.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.434 bb.
There were 484 Chicago wheat deliveries issued today, which was more than anticipated, and this may have lent some early weakness to wheat. But like corn, wheat is also on the rise at midday as soybeans have come well off their daily lows.
The USDA reported an increase of 12.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.8 mb were above the 17.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 725 mb.
Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for February were said to be a record 6.5 mmt. Along with dropping Russian FOB values, this will likely keep pressure on US futures.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Unconfirmed rumors that China bought corn from the US Pacific Northwest may have contributed to the strength yesterday. But grains are mixed to lower this morning; the lack of follow through does not bode well for higher prices.
Northern Argentina looks to be in good shape in terms of precipitation, though southern areas of the country look a bit drier.
A decline of about 73,000 contracts of open interest over the past couple of sessions indicates that large spec traders are likely covering shorts. It may also be tied to March option expiration last Friday and first notice date for March grain futures tomorrow.
Soybean harvest in Brazil is expected to reach about 50% complete this week. Dry weather is helping progress, but rains are expected to return this weekend.
Based on analogous years when the El Nino weather pattern shifted to La Nina quickly, there may be more heat this coming summer in the Midwest, and in particular, areas of the western Corn Belt.
There remains a wide variation in guesses between the lower private estimates of Brazil’s soybean crop and the last USDA numbers.
Fourth quarter GDP data this morning showed that the US economy grew at 3.2%, down slightly from the estimate of 3.3%. Inflation may also be easing, with the CPI up 1.8% in the fourth quarter versus 2.6% in the third. This may signal a strengthening in the US Dollar Index in the near term, which may be in part what is pressuring wheat.
Single-digit temperatures this morning in the US Southern Plains reached as far south as Kansas. While there is some worry of frost damage, there is not much concern about significant crop stress or loss at this time.
Jordan is tendering for wheat, but it is anticipated to be sourced from the Black Sea region, which is at a steep discount to both US and French wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn, along with the rest of the grain complex, is rebounding this morning after yesterday’s bullish reversals off the lows. This bounce may be mostly technical in nature, as the market corrects from oversold conditions and funds cover short positions.
Talk that China purchased a significant amount of Ukrainian feed corn may be what stimulated yesterday’s rally. Though it was not a purchase from the US, it indicates that they are stepping up to buy, and the US could capture some of that business.
Yesterday’s corn export inspections data of 48.9 mb was certainly helpful in the rally. Inspections are 36% above last year at 768 mb.
South American weather looks mostly favorable. Some dryness in the west-central part of Brazil should aid in their soybean harvest but could become a concern if it persists into March. Brazilian soybeans are estimated to be about 40% harvested.
Private exporters reported sales of 123,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
There is talk that China purchased between five and seven cargoes of soybeans from Brazil. It is also believed that they may be looking to make more purchases, offering hope that some of the business may be captured by the US. That may be a bit of a long shot though, as US soybeans remain uncompetitive with South America.
Much of the continental United States has seen above-normal to record warm temperatures this month. However, there is expected to be a big drop in temperature over the next 24 hours or so, which could bring frost damage concerns for the wheat crop.
Russian wheat prices are said to be the lowest since 2020, and Ukrainian wheat is said to be even cheaper than Russian wheat. This may limit the upside potential for US wheat futures.
Yesterday afternoon, select states reported winter wheat conditions. Top producer, Kansas, rated the crop at 57% good to excellent (with 13% poor to very poor). In general, most states saw improvements, but there were slight declines in Colorado and Nebraska.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
March corn futures broke four-dollar support and are trading below that level this morning. Front month corn futures have not traded below four dollars since late 2020.
According to the CFTC, funds are now net short a record 340,732 contracts of corn as of February, 20.
Some scattered showers fell over South America this weekend – later this week, heavier amounts are expected Argentina and southern Brazil. According to Ag Rural, 80% of the safrinha corn crop is now planted in Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report indicated higher placements and on feed numbers which may indicate stronger domestic feed demand.
According to Ag Rural, Brazilian soybean harvest is now about 40% complete. Additionally, they lowered their Brazilian bean production estimate from 150.1 to 147.7 mmt.
There is concern that China may import fewer soybeans than what the USDA is forecasting. With the US uncompetitive with Brazil, this may mean that the lack of Chinese demand will be a larger factor for the US.
Globally, there are not major weather problems, and in the US, there is not a lot of concern as we go into March. The Midwest is perhaps a bit too dry in parts, which could increase the chance for a drier summer. However, the market likely won’t trade this until the April / May timeframe.
Matif wheat futures are trading lower for the second consecutive day, offering weakness to the US market.
Russian wheat export values are said to have fallen again to around $210 to $213 per mt FOB. This apparent freefall will make it quite difficult for wheat to rally.
South Korea did buy 172,300 mt of wheat, which was sourced from the US, Canada, and Australia. The fall in US wheat prices may encourage more world importers to step up and make purchases.
Although not a record like corn, funds are still said to be net short a hefty 110,000 contracts of combined Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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