Corn is trading lower at midday after a reversal off yesterday’s highs. This has May corn on track for only a slight gain on the week. Prices did not respond to a reported flash sale of corn to Mexico and are now below the 40-day moving average.
This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 263,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico. 173,000 metric tons of that amount were for 23/24 and the other 90,000 mt were for 24/25.
Estimates for Argentinian corn production were lowered by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday by 2.5 mmt to 54.0 mmt due to the February heat wave and damage from the spiroplasma bacteria, carried by the maize leafhopper insect. Harvest is estimated at 3.7% complete.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower to end the week and are back below the 50-day moving average in the May contract. Soybeans are now set for a small loss on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are lower with pressure from lower palm oil futures.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be 70% complete by this weekend and some work could be delayed due to rain. In Argentina, soybean crop ratings came in with 31% rated good to excellent and 16% rated poor to very poor.
Drought is threatening the water levels on the Mississippi River for a third year. Barge shipments have fallen to 464k tons in the week ending March 16 from 593k tons the previous week. Soybean shipments were down 25% from last week.
All three wheat classes are trading higher after finding support near this morning’s lows. All three classes are on track to show gains for the week. Yesterday’s net export sales cancellations were expected but not encouraging.
SovEcon has raised its estimate for the 2024 Russian wheat crop by 400k tons to 94 mmt due to a lack of winter damage and a sufficient amount of moisture reserves.
Yesterday, Egypt’s GASC purchased 110,000 metric tons of wheat and bought one cargo each of Bulgarian and Romanian wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is slightly lower at midday after trading higher earlier with support from solid export sales that were within expectations. Earlier this morning, the May contract rallied above its 50-day moving average before backing off.
For the week ending March 14, the USDA reported an increase of 46.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24. This was within the range of trade expectations and puts year to date commitments up 19% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 60.2 mb were well above the 45.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
Next Thursday, the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report will be released, and traders will be looking at estimated corn acres. Corn acres are estimated at 92.25 million acres and stocks are estimated at 8.390 billion.
Soybeans are trading lower today with bear spreading noted as the front months trade weaker relative to the deferred contracts. Prices have backed significantly off their earlier morning highs which saw May as much as 18 cents higher.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 18.2 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was within the range of trade expectations. Soybean sales commitments are down 19% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 28.4 mb were above the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.
Argentina has been receiving too much rain in some of its soybean growing areas which could damage the crop and lend support to soybean meal prices.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC mostly lower but Minneapolis slightly higher. There has been little friendly news, but dryness in the US Plains and Black Sea region have been supportive.
Today’s export sales report showed a decrease of 4.0 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 10.5 mb for 24/25. This was in line with trade expectations and puts total commitments up 3% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 14.5 mb were below the 17.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, South Korea, and China.
Overnight, Egypt’s GASC purchased 110,000 metric tons of wheat and bought one cargo each of Bulgarian and Romanian wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning but has remained rangebound over the past week hovering right at the 40-day moving average. Pressure today is likely coming from weakness in wheat futures along with a good weather forecast for South America.
Argentina is expected to receive rains over the next few days before the forecast turns slightly drier next week, Yesterday, Dr. Cordonnier increased his estimate for Argentine production by 1 mmt. Brazil continues to see scattered showers over the next 10 days.
For the January-February time frame, Chinese customs reports have shown that China has imported a total of 6.2 mmt of corn, of which 4.1 mmt came from Brazil. That is 178% above the previous year and lowers US exports to China by 67%.
Soybeans are trading higher today with support from both soybean meal and oil along with a reported flash sale to unknown destinations. Similar to corn, soybeans have been mostly rangebound over the past week and have met resistance between the 50-day moving average and 1200.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. So far, new crop sales are behind last year’s pace as Brazil harvests their soy crop.
Chinese import data showed total soybean imports from Brazil totaling 6.96 mmt during the first two months of this year which is up 211% from a year ago. Chinese imports from the US fell to 4.96 mmt which is down 48.9% from last year.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with support from Paris milling wheat which has been higher for seven out of the past nine days. Winter wheat crop ratings were updated which could be adding support to KC wheat.
For the week ending March 17, the USDA saw wheat conditions in Kansas increase to 55% good to excellent from 53%. In Oklahoma, ratings fell to 61% from 65%, and in Texas, they were increased to 46% from 44%.
Taiwan is said to have purchased 97,950 mt of US wheat in their tender, and Algeria is reportedly tendering for 50,000 mt of soft wheat. South Korea also purchased 125,000 mt of feed wheat, which was likely sourced from the US.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday but has been tightly rangebound throughout the past week with a lack of fresh news. Yesterday’s export inspections were supportive, but the trade will look to next week’s acreage report for potential adjustments.
In the US, rains are forecast through the eastern Plains and Midwest in areas where soil moisture levels are low. In South America, weather has remained favorable with just central Brazil slightly too dry.
In next Thursday’s stocks and seedings report, the USDA is expected to report the largest corn stocks since 2019. Corn acres are expected to be lower than last year, and between 91 to 93 million acres as producers lean towards planting more soybean acres.
Soybeans have rebounded off this morning’s lows and are near the upper end of their range, with the deferred contracts gaining on the nearby. May soybeans have been unable to close above their 50-day moving average but remain 55 cents off their February low.
Soybean oil is lower again today and is being pressured by palm oil despite its sharp rally over the past few weeks. Soybean meal is being pressured by cheaper Argentinian offers, and with both soy products lower, crush margins have fallen.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is now over 63% complete and key growing state Mato Grosso is 96% complete. CONAB is estimating Brazilian soybean production much lower than the USDA at 146 mmt compared to 156 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with support from Paris milling wheat which has been higher for seven out of the past nine days. Winter wheat crop ratings were updated which could be adding support to KC wheat.
For the week ending March 17, the USDA saw wheat conditions in Kansas increase to 55% good to excellent from 53%. In Oklahoma, ratings fell to 61% from 65%, and in Texas, they were increased to 46% from 44%.
Taiwan is said to have purchased 97,950 mt of US wheat in their tender, and Algeria is reportedly tendering for 50,000 mt of soft wheat. South Korea also purchased 125,000 mt of feed wheat, which was likely sourced from the US.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday with pressure from improved weather in Brazil which should benefit their second crop corn. Argentina is forecast to receive rain as well, but the best chances this week are for central Brazil which has been dry.
Corn futures were higher earlier this morning after good Chinese import data was reported, but prices have slipped since then. February corn imports were 6.2 mmt, which was up 16.2% compared to a year ago. It is estimated that most of those purchases were from Ukraine and South America.
Corn export inspections were in the upper range of analyst expectations at 1.22 mmt compared to last week’s 1.12 mmt. Total inspections are now up 31% from the previous year.
Soybeans are trading lower near midday with pressure from the advancing soybean harvest. Safras & Mercado is projecting total Brazilian production at 148.6 mmt, which is well below the USDA’s last guess. Last week’s rally in soybeans sparked farmer selling in Brazil, which could be weighing on premiums today.
Brazilian soybean harvest has reached 63% complete according to Ag Rural. That is an 8% increase from last week and compares with 62% completed at this time last year. Farmers in Brazil continue to sell soybeans, pressuring premiums there and potentially limiting upside for the US market.
NOPA crush on Friday was a strong record of 186.2 mb, well above the trade expectation of 178 mb. Additionally, soybean oil stocks at 1.69 billion pounds were above the expectation of 1.59 billion pounds.
Media outlets are reporting that 16 drones were launched by Russia against the Odessa region in Ukraine. Some damage was reported to ag infrastructure. Apparently, this is in retaliation against Ukraine’s own round of strikes against Russian oil refineries last week.
Cheap Russian wheat offers continue to keep the upside limited for US futures. However, Paris milling wheat futures are higher this morning, which is giving a boost to the US market. France is getting too much rain, which is affecting their crop condition.
Taiwan is said to have purchased 97,950 mt of US wheat in their tender, and Algeria is reportedly tendering for 50,000 mt of soft wheat. South Korea also purchased 125,000 mt of feed wheat, which was likely sourced from the US.
With the recent decline in price, May Chicago futures are oversold on daily stochastics. This may indicate that a technical bottom is forming.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported sales of 125,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
The US corn export commitments are running 27% ahead of last year, slightly above the USDA’s estimate of 26%. Mexico has been buying a record amount of corn, up 32% from last year, whereas Chinese purchases are down 60%.
Reportedly, farmers in Brazil are not selling much corn, as drier weather is beginning to stress the crop. In addition, corn futures in Brazil are making new highs relative to the US.
Ukraine is said to be the cheapest world origin for corn. US corn is around $194 per mt, while Ukraine is nearly twenty dollars cheaper at $175 per mt.
Brazilian farmers are said to be selling soybeans at a steep discount to US offers. US beans are around $464 per mt, while Brazil is closer to $415 per mt. Soybean meal is also cheaper in both Brazil and Argentina versus the US.
The US soybean meal export commitment is up 19% versus the USDA’s estimate of an 8% increase. However, meal sales may begin to fall as we get closer to the completion of Argentina’s harvest.
Palm oil futures again made a new contract high, which is offering support to soybean oil and soybeans.
Today, traders will receive the February NOPA crush report, which is expected to be a February record around 178 mb.
Yesterday’s PPI data showed inflation was more significant than anticipated. This had the US Dollar up sharply and likely indicates that the Fed may postpone any rate cuts as well, which is adding pressure to wheat.
Talk of China cancelling open sales of US and French wheat, along with rolling up to 1 mmt of Australian sales forward, all have US wheat on the defensive.
Russian wheat FOB values have increased a bit, from $198 to $203 per mt. However, this is still well below US soft wheat at $229 per mt.
The French wheat crop is now said to be rated at 66% good to excellent, which is the lowest rating in four years.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday across the board. With soybeans rallying, corn is being pulled lower by lower wheat prices today. In addition, rain is falling across the Corn Belt which could be adding pressure as well.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 50.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, which were in line with trade expectations. Corn sales commitments now total 1.595 billion bushels and are up 27% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 49.5 mb were above the 46.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 100,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybeans are trading higher today as they through the 50-day moving average in the May contract. Support is coming from higher soybean meal and oil. Prices are higher today despite large net cancellations by China in today’s export sales report.
For the week ending March 7, the USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations and puts soybean sales down 20% from the previous year.
Last week’s export shipments of 34.8 mb were well above the 16.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s trade expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Germany, and Mexico.
Palm oil is trading at its highest level in over a year, and this has been very supportive for soybean oil and all other edible oils.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today following poor export sales, net cancellations of wheat by China, and talk of more cancellations of French wheat by China as well.
In today’s export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of just 3.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 which was a marketing year low, and an increase of 3.0 mb for 24/25. Wheat exports are up 4% year over year.
Last week’s export shipments of 16.7 mb were just below the 17.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, China, and Mexico.
IKAR is now estimating Russian wheat exports for 24/25 near a record high 50 mmt with the harvest expected at 93 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With yesterday’s CONAB production numbers of Brazilian corn (and soybeans) well below the USDA figures, there is uncertainty on who to believe. This may lead to some choppy trade in the futures market for the time being.
Production of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil could be affected by the drier and warmer extended forecast in Mato Grosso, their top producing state.
US corn futures have run into resistance around the 40 & 50-day moving averages. This may limit upside potential as some technical indicators, including stochastics, point to overbought conditions and potential sell signals.
Crude oil supplies are shrinking, according to the American Petroleum Institute, which has crude futures higher. This may affect both corn futures and the ethanol market.
Yesterday there was said to be a significant amount of farmer selling of soybeans in Brazil, leading to lower FOB values. This may be in part what has US beans on the defensive this morning.
Heavy rainfall in Argentina is said to be causing localized flooding. Additionally, more rain is expected, and it is causing concern about soybean harvest, as well as crop damage or loss.
Soybean meal continues to trade near the lows and may show long term weakness in anticipation of a higher Argentine supply and crush.
Malaysian palm oil has now hit the highest price a year, due to production problems and good demand. This is also despite India’s February palm oil imports dropping 36% and being the lowest in nine months.
Since last week, China is confirmed to have cancelled 18.5 mb of US SRW wheat purchases. But rumors that there may be more cancellations could be in part what is weighing on wheat this morning. Some are anticipating another 10-15 mb reduction.
Wheat stocks in India are said to have hit a seven-year low. They are a major wheat producer and usually have a surplus to export. However, due to increased domestic demand and weather issues, they may now be net importers.
March Russian wheat exports are projected to be between 4.5 and 4.8 mmt. Additionally, the yearly total is expected at 51 versus 47.5 mmt last year, according to the USDA. Cheap Russian exports continue to limit upside for US futures.
Kansas City wheat futures are running up against resistance around the six-dollar level. Aside from the 40 & 50 day moving averages being near this area, six dollars is also important psychologically.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
CONAB has estimated Brazilian corn production at 112.8 mmt, which is down about 1 mmt from last month, and significantly below the USDA at 124 mmt.
Conditions in Argentina look mostly favorable – heavy rains are expected this week in the eastern and central parts of the country that could create localized flooding, however. Argentina is in the beginning stages of harvesting what appears to be a record corn crop.
Early corn planting in the southern US is running behind last year’s pace but is more in line with historical averages. Texas is 22% planted versus 27% at this time a year ago, while Louisiana is 17% complete compared with 62% last year.
CPI data released this morning indicated that inflation rose again in February. Expectations were for a year over year increase of 3.1%, but it was slightly higher at 3.2%. Additionally, for the month of February itself, CPI was up 0.4% versus expectations of 0.3%. All of this indicates that the Federal Reserve may continue to wait to lower interest rates.
CONAB has estimated Brazilian soybean production at 146.9 mm, which is down roughly 2.5 mmt from last month, and is well below the USDA at 155 mmt.
Brazilian soybean harvest was about 55% complete as of last week, and good progress should be made with dry conditions this week across the western and central areas. Expectations are for well over 60% completion this week.
Palm oil futures have reached the highest levels since April of last year due to increased demand as well as production issues. This has soybean oil working its way higher, which is giving a boost to soybean futures.
Farmers in Brazil are said to have sold about 37% of their expected soybean production, according to Safras & Mercado. However, this is down from the average of around 50% for this time frame. With their basis also improving, this potentially indicates that the crop is lower than what the USDA is saying, and perhaps closer to the CONAB number.
Chicago wheat futures posted a bullish key reversal on charts at yesterday’s close. Futures are following through this morning by trading higher. This may indicate that a bottom is in place, at least for the meantime, especially as the positive trade seems to disregard the recent Chinese cancellations.
Winter wheat condition in Kansas and Oklahoma was unchanged on the latest update, however in Texas the crop declined 2% to 44% good to excellent.
Ukraine officials have said that their 2024 harvest of grain and oilseeds could be down 8% compared with last year, at 76 mmt. This is attributed to lower acreage, higher costs, and labor shortages. Wheat in particular could be down 14.5% at 20 mmt.
Russia continues to act as an anchor on the wheat market in general, which may limit upside potential. According to Sov Econ, Russia’s April FOB export values have fallen to $198 per mt. This keeps US exports uncompetitive, as they are well above this level.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
China’s producer price index was lower for the seventeenth straight month. This may be offering some weakness to commodity markets this morning.
Brazil is not expected to receive much rain over the next 10 days. The weather maps do have some rain in the extended forecast, but at this time there is not much confidence in that. Argentina on the other hand has moisture in the forecast over the next 10 days or so.
Significant US inflation data will be released this week including CPI, the federal budget deficit, PPI, jobless claims, among other reports. The equity markets may be anticipating unfriendly news since they are lower this morning, and some of this weakness might spill over into commodities.
On Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA raised Chinese soybean imports, which is the first time they have deviated from China’s numbers and the pace of imports to date. This is interesting given the fact that on the report, Brazilian supply wasn’t really adjusted in any way that would reflect this change.
Malaysian palm oil stocks are said to have hit a seven-month low at 1.91 mmt. Additionally, palm oil production is at a ten-month low. This is aiding soybean oil which is trading higher this morning. Also having a potential impact on soybean oil will be the release of the NOPA crush report this coming Friday.
Brazilian soybean basis has been improving since late January at a time when harvest is over 50% complete. This may indicate that producers are holding out for higher prices, or that the crop is smaller than what the USDA is saying, or a combination of both.
This morning, private exporters reported another cancellation of US SRW wheat for delivery to China in the amount of 264,000 mt for the 23/24 season.
Last week the USDA did lower US wheat exports from 725 to 710 mb for 23/24. This may be in part due to recent Chinese cancellations, along with the continued pressure from cheap Russian exports.
Between Chicago and Kansas City futures, the managed funds are said to be short about 105,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
