According to the CFTC’s report on Friday, the combined short position in corn, wheat, and the soy complex by the managed funds reached 593,000 contracts – this is an April record.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop by 2 mmt to 52 mmt. They cited damage from Spiroplasma bacteria as the cause of the decline.
Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to warm up after rains over the past weekend. This should help speed up planting of crops.
Although the impact of the avian flu outbreak should be minimal to mammals, there is still concern about a potential drop in feed demand that may affect the grain markets. This would likely be due to consumer safety concerns as the reports reach mainstream media.
AgRural has estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest to be 78% complete, a 4% increase from last week.
The USDA’s current estimate of Brazilian soybean production at 151.7 mmt is well above CONAB, but may be adjusted on this week’s WASDE report.
Soybean meal is trading higher this morning after reports last week indicated that February soybean meal exports were 48% above last year and record large.
Despite reports of increased farmer selling in Brazil, their soybean basis continues to firm, which may indicate a smaller crop, or better demand than anticipated.
All three US wheat classes are trading higher this morning. If Chicago closes in positive territory, it would be the fourth higher session in a row.
Supportive to wheat price is news that over the weekend there were attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. This is the same location that was in the news a few months ago for similar reasons. At this time, it is unclear who is behind the attack, but it raises concerns about what could happen to the surrounding agricultural area in the event of a disaster.
Globally, India is projecting their wheat crop at 112.5 mmt, but a private estimate from a flour miller’s group is anticipating a 105 mmt crop. In the southern hemisphere, Australia is expected to plant 1% to 3% more wheat acres according to some private analysts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Though the corn market has seen both sides of unchanged, it is trading slightly lower at midday, and the May and December contracts are on track for losses on the week. If corn futures close higher today, it would mark three consecutively higher closes, and May futures are now just above their 20-day moving average.
Last week’s corn export shipments reached a marketing year high at 64.6 million bushels, and export sales for the month of February were reported at 211 mb which compares to 170 mb in January. Mexico has been the primary buyer of US corn.
In Brazil, some a of the driest regions for growing second crop corn are forecast to receive heavy showers over the next 10 days, but drier weather is expected after that. The second crop corn pollination will take place between April to early May.
Soybeans are trading higher today with support from soybean oil. Soybeans are on track for a loss on the week along with soybean meal, but soybean oil is on track for a gain with major support from palm oil. Yesterday’s export sales were poor, but a flash sale was reported which was supportive.
Yesterday’s export sales were reported at just 7.1 mb as Brazil dominates the export market with cheaper offers. A flash sale of 5.6 mb of old crop soybeans was reported for delivery to Mexico.
Palm oil has been the driver of higher soybean oil which in turn has supported soybeans, and Malaysian palm oil reserves were seen at an 8-month low on strong exports which shows the strong recent demand for veg oils.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and are helping support both the corn and soybean markets. Chicago wheat is leading the way with KC not far behind. Chicago wheat is on track for a gain on the week and has moved well off its lows.
There have been reports that Russia has suspended some wheat exports following complaints by importers of low-quality wheat. With this backup, there are reportedly 500,000 mt of wheat that are loaded onto ships and waiting for certifications to sail.
Meteorologist John Barnick has said that the US Southern Plains have been too dry, that parts of western Europe have been too wet, and that the Black Sea region has been too warm and dry, not to mention at war.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday with May futures hovering right at the 40-day moving average. Chinese corn imports are expected to fall by 3 mmt this year due to an expected increase in Chinese production by 7 mmt.
For the week ending March 28, the USDA reported an increase of 37.4 million bushels of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for the 24/25 marketing year. Corn sales commitments are now up 18% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 64.6 mb were well above the 45.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Canada.
Soybeans are trading lower today with pressure from soybean oil which is over 1.50% lower for the day. This morning, the USDA reported that 152,404 mt of soybeans were sold to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year which added some support to prices that were lower earlier this morning.
This morning, the USDA reported an increase of just 7.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was below the lower end of trade estimates. Soybeans sales commitments are now down 19% from last year. Brazil’s ongoing harvest and cheaper soybeans have caused US exports to remain sluggish.
Last week’s export shipments were 20.2 mb and were above the 14.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago trading lower but KC and Minneapolis higher. This morning, there were reports that the Russian government had halted exports from one of their largest export firms as there have been complaints regarding quality from importers.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of just 0.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 9.6 mb for 24/25. The sales for 23/24 were below the range of trade guesses while the 24/25 sales were above the estimates. Wheat shipments are now down 6% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 19.0 mb were above the 18.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 710 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Thailand, and the Philippines.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday and is back near its levels from before Thursday’s bullish USDA report. Pressure has come from recent rains across the Midwest which have improved soil moisture levels, and concerns about avian flu in cattle and what that could mean for feed demand.
China is reportedly encouraging its traders to slow their arrivals of foreign corn imports in an effort to bolster domestic prices, which are at three-year lows, as China’s own farmers prepare to plant.
Later today, the EIA will release their weekly petroleum status report which will include ethanol production and stocks from last week. Production is expected to be lower than the previous week at 1.046m b/d with stockpiles at 26.166m bbl, which would be the highest stocks levels since March of last year.
Soybeans are mixed near midday with the front months trading slightly lower but new crop slightly higher. May soybeans have had 5 consecutively lower closes and is on track for a sixth. Soybean meal is lower, but soybean oil is continuing its trend higher with support from palm oil.
Biodiesel margins are reportedly as much as $1.10 higher per gallon than last year with increased demand and more plants opening. This has been a driver of good demand for soybean oil.
With exports sluggish lately, and South America harvesting their soybean crop and taking most of the export business, there has been little in the way of bullish fundamentals, especially with US soybean planting intentions assumed to be higher this year. Soybean oil has been the main factor supporting soybeans.
All three wheat classes are significantly higher at midday with Minneapolis and KC wheat leading the way up and lending some support to corn. The near-term forecast is drier for the Plains, and increased tensions in the Black Sea region are also adding support.
India is expected to import wheat in the 24/25 marketing year despite expectations of a record harvest. This is due to a decline in government stockpiles and low prices globally. This would be the first time that India imported wheat since 2017.
Yesterday, Reuters reported that a Ukrainian drone attacked a Russian oil refinery, but the extent of the damage was not revealed. Despite the conflict in the region, Ukraine managed to export 14 mmt of wheat in the July to June marketing period.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower at midday for the second consecutive day in quiet trade that has May corn just below the 20-day moving average. Recent rains in the Midwest have improved soil moisture ahead of planting which could be pressuring prices.
The US attaché in Brazil has lowered their estimate for the 23/24 Brazilian corn crop to 122 mmt which is slightly below the most recent USDA estimate but still well above CONAB’s last guess of 112 mmt.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA Grain Crushings report was released and showed a record high ethanol grind for the month of February. They also revised the January grind higher, and this points to potentially higher numbers on the April report than previously expected.
Soybeans are trading higher today primarily from the strength in the soybean oil and veg oil markets. Palm oil and the other veg oils have been working higher recently on increased demand. Soybean meal is lower today and will likely be pressured by Argentina’s soy harvest.
Yesterday afternoon, the Fats and Oils report was released and saw a new record for February soybean crush at 196.4 mb. This was slightly lower than the average trade guess but crush the month of February is up 5.4% so far.
With exports sluggish lately, and South America harvesting their soybean crop and taking most of the export business, there has been little in the way of bullish fundamentals, especially with US soybean planting intentions assumed to be higher this year. Soybean oil has been the main factor supporting soybeans.
Wheat is mostly lower at midday. Recent rains in the southwestern Plains have improved crop ratings and improved soil moisture.
The USDA reported new crop ratings for winter wheat increasing the good to excellent rating to 56% which is the best in recent years with only 11% of the crop rated poor to very poor. Hard red winter wheat is rated 54% good to excellent while soft red is 68%. Spring wheat is reportedly 1% planted.
India is expected to import wheat in the 24/25 marketing year despite expectations of a record harvest. This is due to a decline in government stockpiles and low prices globally. This would be the first time that India imported wheat since 2017.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading sharply lower to start the week wiping out a portion of the gains that followed Thursday’s USDA Stocks and Acreage report. Futures are bear spread with the front months posting larger losses than new crop corn.
Thursday’s USDA report said that US ag markets were expected to lose 6 million acres this year due to lower profitability, but with futures lower today, there may be some traders who expect some of those acres to be factored back in later this year. Corn stocks came in lower than expected which likely points to strong export sales recently.
Friday’s CFTC report as of March 26 showed funds coming into the report with a net short position of 251,730 contracts, but it was estimated that they bought back 10,500 of those contracts on Thursday.
Soybeans began the day trading higher with support from soybean oil and the rest of the veg oils but has slipped and is now trading lower on the day. Soybean meal is lower, and soybean oil has lost some of its earlier gains. Thursday’s report was within trade expectations, but the prospect of larger soybean planted acres is bearish.
In January, soybean oil for use in US biofuel production fell to 960 million pounds from 1,141 million pounds in December. Despite this, crush demand is strong and soybean crush is seen at 196.7 mb in February which would be up 11.2% from the previous year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 26 by 13,559 contracts leaving them net short 134,780 contracts, but it is estimated that on Thursday following the USDA report, they sold 1,500 contracts.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning led by KC wheat. Chicago wheat has been in a slight uptrend over the past few weeks while KC wheat is at the lower end of its trading range and not far off the contract lows.
Thursday’s USDA report showed total wheat acres within trade expectations at 47.5 million acres, but that is down from 49.6 ma last year. Fewer winter wheat acres are expected to be planted while slightly more spring wheat acres are expected.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of both Chicago and KC wheat. They sold 11.532 contracts of Chicago wheat, increasing their net short position to 92,102 contracts. In KC wheat, they sold 4,781 contracts, increasing their short position to 42,638 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAY ’24
429.5
2.75
JUL ’24
441.75
2.5
DEC ’24
463.5
1.25
Soybeans
MAY ’24
1183
-9.5
JUL ’24
1196.5
-10
NOV ’24
1171.5
-12
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24
549.25
1.75
JUL ’24
565
2.25
JUL ’25
638.25
2.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24
582.25
4
JUL ’24
576.25
2.25
JUL ’25
623.75
-1.25
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24
652.5
1.5
JUL ’24
659.25
2
SEP ’24
667.5
3
S&P 500
JUN ’24
5313.75
5.5
Crude Oil
MAY ’24
82.64
1.29
Gold
JUN ’24
2235.5
22.8
The USDA reported an increase of 47.5 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 48.6 mb were above the 45.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb. In addition, total corn commitments of 1.689 bb are up 19% from last year.
Ethanol production is running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, at 1.054 million barrels per day. That is higher than last week and also above estimates.
Ocean surface temperatures suggest that the world could see a La Nina weather pattern as early as July, with it strengthening into late summer and fall. This could mean a warmer and drier summer in the US.
Brazilian states Mato Grosso and Goias are expected to receive 2-4 inches of rain over the next 10 days or so. However, Parana is still too dry. Additionally, dryness in Argentina should help the corn harvest pace pick up, which was 5.7% complete as of Wednesday.
The USDA reported an increase of 9.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 4.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments totaled 28.9 mb last week and were above the 15.4 mb pace needed to reach the export goal of 1.72 bb. Total soybean commitments for this year are down 19% from last year at 1.483 bb.
Soybean basis levels at the Paranagua port in Brazil are over 60 cents per bushel higher than a year ago, indicating that perhaps their production is less than estimated, or demand is stronger.
At the time of writing, both soybean meal and oil are lower, offering weakness to soybean futures.
Agroconsult increased their estimate of Brazilian soybean production by 4.3 mmt to 156.5 mmt, which is above the current USDA and CONAB estimates.
The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 7.8 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaled 15.0 mb and were below the 18.2 mb pace needed to reach the export goal of 710 mb. This year’s total wheat commitments are up 4% from last year at 688 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures are modestly higher as of writing, which should offer some support to the US market.
The Saudi Arabian government is tendering for 595,000 mt of wheat. Their last tender in 2023 resulted in a purchase of 1.35 mmt of wheat.
The US Dollar Index made a new near-term high today; as it moves higher, that makes it more expensive for importers to buy US ag goods, which may add upside resistance to futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAY ’24
428.5
-4
JUL ’24
440.75
-4.25
DEC ’24
463.5
-4.5
Soybeans
MAY ’24
1193.75
-5.25
JUL ’24
1207.25
-5.25
NOV ’24
1185.5
-5.5
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24
545
1.5
JUL ’24
560.5
1.25
JUL ’25
634.75
-0.75
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24
577
-0.25
JUL ’24
572
-2
JUL ’25
623
-3.25
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24
649.5
2.25
JUL ’24
657
3.5
SEP ’24
664.25
2.75
S&P 500
JUN ’24
5275
9.75
Crude Oil
MAY ’24
81.5
-0.12
Gold
JUN ’24
2211.4
12.2
The average pre-report estimate for corn acreage in tomorrow’s USDA report is 92.0 million, which compares to 94.6 ma last year. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 8.439 bb, up from 7.396 bb a year ago.
Concerns persist regarding avian flu in the cattle herd, potentially impacting grain markets. Despite reassurances from the USDA regarding human safety, traders may be apprehensive about a potential decrease in feed demand.
Recent rains in the western Corn Belt and Midwest are expected to replenish soil moisture levels, although they may also lead to delays in spring planting.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is now 97% planted, which is above the pace from last year in which they were 91% planted at this time.
The average pre-report estimate for soybean acreage in tomorrow’s USDA report is 86.3 million, which compares to 83.6 ma last year. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 1.832 bb, up from 1.687 bb a year ago.
Despite the decline from last week’s high, May soybean futures are still trading above the 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages.
Soybean oil is under pressure this morning, likely due to lower palm oil futures that are seeing profit taking after the recent rally.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybean harvest is just over 66% complete as of the end of last week. And they should be well over 70% done by the end of this week.
The average pre-report estimate for all wheat acreage tomorrow is 47.7 million, which compares to 49.6 ma last year. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 1.053 bb, up from 941 mb a year ago.
This morning, Matif wheat is near unchanged at the time of writing; if it closes lower that would be the third consecutive session down.
Approximately 400,000 metric tons of wheat are reportedly stranded in Russian ports, attributed to the failure to obtain the necessary phytosanitary certificates from the government by RIF, the second-largest grain exporter in Russia.
During the month of March, Ukraine has exported 4.5 mmt of grain so far. By comparison, in March of last year they shipped 4.6 mmt. It should be noted that this year they are doing so without the aid of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which ended in July of 2023.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The grain complex is under pressure this morning, in part from the mix of rain and snow throughout much of the US.
This Thursday will feature the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report. Pre-report estimates have corn acreage around 92 million, which would be up from the USDA outlook forum, but down from last year.
Brazil is expected to get good rains totaling 3-5 inches in Mato Grosso and the northern regions, whereas southern Brazil is currently too dry and could use additional moisture.
The USDA has said that avian flu has been detected in milk and dairy cattle in the southern US. While they say that the milk is safe, this may ultimately impact consumer sentiment and potentially feed demand.
Soybean oil is lower this morning and weighing on soybeans with pressure potentially coming from profit taking in palm oil futures.
Pre-report estimates have soybean acreage around 86.3 million, which would be 2.7 ma above last year.
While Brazilian soybean basis has risen over 60 cents since January, their soybeans remain at a steep discount to US offers and may limit upside movement in futures.
Chinese soybean and soybean meal values are reportedly down today, along with their crush margins. These decreased crush margins may further exacerbate pressure on domestic soybeans in China.
After making a new near-term high yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures closed lower, and are trading lower again this morning, which is weighing on the US market.
Russian wheat FOB values are said to have increased about $10 per mt over the past couple of weeks. In theory, this should be supportive, but they remain the cheapest origin next to the Black Sea, and this keeps overhead resistance in the market.
Pre-report estimates have all wheat acreage at 47.6 million, which is down 1.9 ma from last year.
Single-digit temperatures are forecasted today and tomorrow, extending as far south as the Texas panhandle, prompting concerns regarding potential freeze damage to the wheat crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Heavy rains are said to have hit the Argentina corn crop, leading to some potential damage concerns. Additionally, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of that crop from 56.5 to 54 mmt.
An estimated 34% of US corn acres are experiencing drought. For major producer Iowa, that area is said to be at 84% in drought, but rain over the next few days may bring some relief.
In Brazil, an estimated 85% of the safrinha corn crop is planted, and some of the major production areas including Mato Grosso and Parana remain mostly warm and dry.
The European Union is said to have imposed a 50% duty on all Russian oilseed imports.
Brazilian soybean harvest is now around 70% complete – this is in line with the average. Mato Grosso in particular, is said to be 100% done.
Brazil soybeans are said to be at a 55-cent discount to US FOB soybeans out of the Gulf. This may limit upside potential for futures.
Palm oil is higher again due to good demand as well as production concerns, offering a boost to soybean oil and soybean futures this morning.
More Russian attacks against Odesa occurred overnight, in which power plants were targeted. Concern that this could disrupt business at the ports is adding some premium to wheat.
One of the major Russian wheat exporters has not received the appropriate export licenses due to the company failing to secure phytosanitary certificates. This has kept vessels in port and may also be adding some premium to the market.
Parts of Kansas and Oklahoma are expected to get cold temperatures this Tuesday and Wednesday which could affect the HRW crop as it comes out of dormancy.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
