Financial markets are higher this morning, likely due to reduced tension between Israel and Iran. Some of this higher trade may be spilling over into commodity markets.
According to the CFTC, managed fund’s net short position in the grain complex reached 612,000 contracts as of last Tuesday – this is an increase of about 74,000 contracts from the previous week.
Much of the Midwest is set to receive rainfall later this week. This may slow planting progress a bit but should benefit conditions.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 17% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested. This is behind the average pace due to too much wet weather and may continue to be hindered by more rain this week.
After a lower start to the day, soybean futures are higher at the time of writing.
As with corn, the Argentine soybean harvest is running behind. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, harvest progress has reached 14% complete, well below the average of 36%. This is also attributed to wet weather.
With cooler and wetter weather in the northern Midwest, soybean planting may be limited. In southern states, progress may have advanced a bit more, which should be reflected on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report.
Wheat is up sharply this morning, despite a rising US Dollar. This may be tied to heat and dryness in the Black Sea region, specifically, southwest Russia and eastern Ukraine. Western Ukraine is seeing colder temperatures, along with northern Europe.
Light frost was reported on Sunday in the southwestern US Plains. This may be offering some support to prices as well. Some parts of Europe also had frost concerns.
Soil conditions in the Canadian prairies are too dry. There was some recent snow that should help, but more moisture is needed.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher near midday but is slightly off its highs from overnight which were caused by Israel’s attacks on Iran. July futures are at the lower end of their recent range and are about 22 cents above their low that was posted at the end of February.
There are rumors circulating this morning that the Environmental Protection Agency may be about to approve the sales of E15 over the summer which could boost ethanol demand and support corn prices.
In Argentina, the corn crop is reportedly shrinking due to an invasion of “leaf hopper” insects that carry a disease that damages corn. It is estimated that $1.3 billion has been lost from the value of the 23/24 crop due to this disease.
Soybeans are trading higher today and are just a few cents off their overnight highs. Israel’s attack on Iran caused crude oil futures to spike sharply higher but they have faded this morning and are now near unchanged. July futures are about 18 cents off of the February low, which could be an area of support.
Soybean meal is trading higher today but has been virtually rangebound over the past month, while soybean oil is near unchanged and has sold off considerably along with the correction lower in palm oil prices. Despite the selloff, crush margins are still profitable enough to incentivize processors, which was reflected in Monday’s record NOPA report.
In the past three weeks, the Brazilian Real has fallen by 4.6% which cheapens soybean purchases from Brazil. As a result, May soybean futures in the US have fallen about 54 cents in the same time frame which is a decline of about 4.5%.
Wheat is trading higher overall today with Chicago leading the way up, Minneapolis trailing behind, and KC wheat is mixed to slightly higher. Prices are well off the overnight highs caused by the escalations in the Middle East.
In the US, rains are forecast to fall in both Oklahoma and Texas tomorrow, but the 6 to 14-day forecast calls for much wider spread moisture across the country. The extended forecast should be favorable for spring wheat planting along with the winter wheat growing season.
Yesterday’s export sales reports were poor again with net cancellations of 3.4 mb reported for the 23/24 year, but new crop sales of 8.2 mb were better than expected.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday and is near the bottom of its recent trading range with pressure coming from rains falling across the Corn Belt and centered in Iowa this morning. More frequent rains and warmer temperatures are forecast for the rest of this month across the Midwest.
Today’s export sales report was on the soft side for corn with an increase of 19.7 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.6 mb for 24/25. Corn sales commitments now total 1.759 bb and are up 17% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 60.9 mb were a bright spot and were well above the 41.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and Japan.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday but have rebounded slightly from their earlier morning lows. Pressure is coming from the advancing planting pace in the US along with lower prices in both soybean meal and oil. Soybean oil has been pulled sharply lower by a correction in palm oil over the past 2 weeks.
Today’s export sales report for soybeans showed an increase of 17.8 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 9.7 mb for 24/25. Sales commitments now total 1.517 bb and are down 18% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 17.7 mb were above the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Indonesia, and Germany.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with KC and Minneapolis wheat leading the way higher. The US Plains are mostly dry right now but have some chances for rain in the longer term forecast along with above average temperatures.
For the week ending April 11, the USDA reported net cancellations of wheat of 3.4 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 8.2 mb for 24/25. This was on the very low end of trade expectations and puts total sales down 2% from last year.
Last week’s export shipments of 17.9 mb were just above the 17.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations of 710 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, China, and Mexico.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mostly lower at midday in a very quiet trade that has remained rangebound over the past six weeks. Rain has also begun to fall today across the northern Midwest and the northern Plains in some of the driest areas that need it the most.
In South America, Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop corn growing season is well under way but is facing a dry forecast. It may be three days before Argentina receives rain, but Brazil has a longer timeline for dry weather. Argentina is expected to produce 55 mmt of corn and Brazil is expected to produce 124 mmt.
US ethanol production is expected to be lower at 1.035m b/d for last week which would compare to 1.056 the previous week. The stockpile average estimate is seen at 26.146m bbl which would compare to 26.208m the week prior.
Soybeans are trading higher today but have been on a steady decline since the recent high on March 21. Prices in the July contract have fallen 76 cents from that high and are now just 25 cents off of the February low. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher today as well.
Monday’s NOPA crush report was friendly on the crush side with 196.406 million bushels crushed for the month of March which indicates good domestic demand, but the soybean oil stocks that came in higher than expected were bearish.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 13.74 mmt for the month of April which compares with 12.73 mmt the previous month. For 23/24, Brazilian soybean sales are expected to reach 41.6% of expected production.
Wheat is mostly lower at midday with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat is mixed. Wheat is following the trend in corn and has been trading sideways over the past month. Today’s rains have avoided winter wheat areas, but the 8 to 14-day forecast has chances for rain.
According to Monday’s crop progress report, 11% of the winter wheat crop is headed, which is above the 5-year average of 7% for this time of year. 55% is rated good to excellent, which is much better than last year’s 27%.
In Russia, the weather is forecast to warm over its wheat growing season and production estimates have increased. LSEG Commodities has forecast the 24/25 wheat production to total 89.8 mmt which would be up 1.6% from their last update.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today and is at the lower end of its very tight range. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn at 6% planted which is above the 5-year average, and yesterday’s inspections report showed a sizeable amount of corn inspected.
With 6% of the corn crop planted, it is the southern states getting most of the work done as the north is delayed by rains. Missouri is reportedly 26% planted, and main growing states may have to wait another week for conditions to dry up.
Yesterday’s export inspections report showed that 52.4 mb of corn were inspected for export, and this has helped to keep corn shipments up 34% from last year.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday and are now just 23 cents above the contract low that was posted at the end of February. Pressure is coming from the ongoing harvest in Brazil, the wrapping up of the growing season in Argentina, and the beginning of planting in the US.
Soybean meal was trading higher earlier this morning but has turned slightly lower, and soybean oil has been following palm oil lower. Palm oil is correcting from its earlier rally and is now 6% below its recent highs in the May contract.
According to AgRural, the Brazilian soybean harvest is now 84% complete which is 2 points below last year’s pace. There have been some delays due to rains, and the bulk of work is ongoing in the southernmost region of Rio Grande do Sul. The USDA estimates Brazilian production at 156 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with the majority of losses in Chicago wheat. Winter wheat areas have been under pressure from recent rains, but last week, crop ratings fell by 1% good to excellent.
According to yesterday’s crop progress report, 11% of the winter wheat crop is headed which is above the 5-year average of 7% for this time of year. 55% is rated good to excellent, which is much better than last year’s 27%.
The USDA ag attaché in Ukraine is expecting the countries overall grain production to decrease in 24/25 along with lower exports citing unprofitable margins as a result of Russia’s invasion.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today but remains rangebound and has hovered around the 40-day moving average for the past month. Over the weekend, Iran sent missiles and drones to attack Israel, but it was reported that 99% of the attacks were intercepted. Despite the escalation in conflict, crude oil and other commodities are lower.
This morning, the USDA reported a sale of 165,000 tons of corn to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year. Mexico has been a primary buyer of US corn, and overall exports have been at a decent pace compared to last year.
In Michigan, three more dairy herds have tested positive for the avian flu. This brings the total in Michigan to 27 farms. While the avian flu reportedly runs its course in cattle within 7 to 10 days, this still could pose a threat to feed demand.
Soybeans are trading lower today with pressure from soybean meal and lower crude oil while soybean oil trades higher along with palm oil. For now, there are no weather threats in the US that would cause prices to move higher, and South American harvest is at a good pace.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are to show that 3 to 4% of the crop has been seeded. The five-day weather forecast features a good amount of rain for the Midwest while the western Plains are relatively dry.
NOPA crush for the month of March is seen at a record high 197.787 million bushels. Despite crush margins slightly narrowing recently, they are profitable enough to incentivize processors.
All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with the Chicago contract leading the way lower. Pressure is coming from lower Paris milling wheat along with a sharp uptick recently in the US Dollar which has made US exports even less competitive.
Russian wheat FOB values have risen recently which has caused global prices to move higher as a whole, but Russian wheat exports are still record large and called at 4.4 mmt for April which follows 4.8 mmt in March.
Kazakhstan has extended its ban on wheat imports for another 6 months from any country. According to officials there, the illegal imports of wheat to Kazakhstan have caused domestic wheat prices to fall by over 50%. As much as 2 mmt of wheat used to be imported illegally into the country each year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
After a soft start to the session, the grain complex is higher at midday. The WASDE report was somewhat bearish but with it over and done with, funds may be covering some of their hefty 250,000 short corn contracts.
December corn dipped below both the 40 and 50-day moving averages after yesterday’s data release. While it has managed to climb back above these levels today, the contract appears to be trading within a relatively narrow range. Any potential upward breakout might need the addition of weather premium.
Yesterday the USDA left the Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 124 mmt and well above CONAB’s estimate of 110.9 mmt.
US corn export demand is strong, with Mexico importing record amounts. This could be tied to drought in Mexico, with the USDA having lowered their corn crop yesterday.
This morning, the USDA reported a large private exporter sale totaling 124,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year, which is offering a boost to futures.
Brazilian soybean basis levels reportedly continue to firm up. This is despite the USDA keeping the crop unchanged at 155 mmt yesterday and with 80% of the crop harvested; CONAB’s estimate is 8.5 mmt below the USDA’s.
Aside from the Brazilian production number, CONAB also has soybean exports at 92.2 mmt on their latest estimate. This is well below the USDA’s projection of 103 mmt.
Soybean meal is up sharply at midday, lending a helping hand to soybean futures. This could be tied to a 1.5 mmt reduction in the Argentina crop, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate. About 11% of that crop is said to be harvested; Argentina is a major meal exporter.
Paris milling wheat futures are higher this morning by about 3.25 Euros at the time of writing and is providing some support to the US market.
French wheat crop conditions are said to have declined to 64% good to excellent. This is roughly 30% below last year’s levels, and has been tied to weather issues, specifically too much rain in western Europe.
The Black Sea region continues to see conflict. Russia reportedly attacked one of Ukraine’s major power plants near Kyiv which is said to be the main power source for the city. It should be noted that this is a coal powered plant, and not the nuclear plant that was recently in headlines.
The US Dollar Index is also up sharply today, breaching the 106 level. At the time of writing, it is at its highest level since November 2, 2023.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 12.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 61.3 mb surpassed the 42.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the export estimate of 2.100 bb.
Ethanol production was a record for this week of the year at 1.056 million bpd. In addition, this was the third week in a row with record production.
CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop to 110.9 mmt from 112.7 previously. They also lowered Brazil’s corn export forecast by 1 mmt to 31 mmt. For comparison, the March USDA estimate is 52 mmt.
The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s corn production by 6.5 mmt to 50.5 mmt. The cause of the decline is said to be disease pressure left by a prevalence of small grasshoppers.
South American weather remains mostly favorable, and some of the drier southwest and southcentral areas should receive moisture this weekend and into next week. This should give a boost to the safrinha corn crop.
The USDA reported an increase of 11.2 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 18.5 mb surpassed the 14.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the export estimate of 1.720 bb.
Although they lowered their corn estimate, the Rosario Grain Exchange left their projection of Argentina’s soybean crop unchanged at 50 mmt and is in line with the March USDA estimate.
CONAB left their estimate of Brazilian soybean production virtually unchanged. Today’s number came in at 146.5 mmt versus 146.85 last month. The bigger news may be that they decreased their soybean export forecast from 101.9 mmt to 92.25 mmt.
India’s palm oil imports are said to have dropped to the lowest level in 10 months. As they are the number one vegetable oil importer globally, this has had palm oil on the decline, which may also be weighing on soybean oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 3.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 10.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 23.0 mb surpassed the 17.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the export estimate of 710 mb.
Some of the areas of the western Corn Belt and southern Plains have missed out on recent rains. This may lead to a deterioration of the winter wheat crop quality that may be reflected on next week’s Crop Progress report.
It is now being reported that Russian wheat FOB values are nearly $15 higher than just a few weeks ago. This, combined with news that some Russian wheat is being held up in port due to quality concerns, should be supportive to futures prices.
The US Dollar Index continues to rise after yesterday’s CPI data indicated that inflation continues to be an issue. This may leave the funds relatively unconcerned, as they are estimated to still hold a combined net short wheat position of over 130,000 contracts this morning.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The average pre-report estimate for US corn carryout in tomorrow’s USDA report is 2.105 bb versus 2.172 bb in March, which compares to 1.360 bb last year. In addition, global ending stocks are expected to come in at 317.0 mmt versus 319.6 mmt in March and 301.6 mmt last year.
For tomorrow’s report, the trade is looking for Argentine corn production to come in at 55.3 mmt, down from 56.0 mmt in March, but well above the 36.0 mmt last year. As for Brazil, corn production is anticipated at 122.1 mmt, down from 124.0 mmt in March and 137.0 mmt last year.
Outside markets, including gold and crude oil, have been rallying recently. This may indicate that money flow is moving towards commodity markets, which may help support grain prices. Additionally, the higher energies may increase margins for renewable fuels, also lending support to corn and soybeans.
There is talk that China may be restricting corn imports, while this is increasing their domestic prices, it may also decrease world demand. China and Russia have also reportedly pledged to deepen their alliance against the US. Their 2023 trade was up 26% to a record $245 billion.
The soybean complex may be under pressure this morning due to talk that Brazilian vessels are coming into China. Reportedly China bought 30 Brazilian cargoes of soybeans last week. In April, it is estimated that they will receive 6.36 mmt from Brazil, and just 2.83 mmt from the US.
Earlier this morning, the USDA reported a large private export sale totaling 254,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The average trade estimate for US soybean carryout in tomorrow’s USDA report is 319 mb versus 315 mb in March, which compares to 264 mb last year. In addition, global ending stocks are expected to come in at 112.6 mmt versus 114.3 mmt in March and 102.2 mmt last year.
For tomorrow’s report, the trade is looking for Argentine soybean production to come in at 50.2 mmt, up slightly from 50.0 mmt in March, and more than double the 25.0 mmt last year. As for Brazil, soybean production is anticipated at 151.7 mmt, down from 155.0 mmt in March and 162.0 mmt last year.
All three US wheat classes are showing some strength this morning, likely due to talk that Russia FOB values have now increased as much as $14 per mt over the past three weeks. This still leaves Russia at a $20 discount to offers from France and Germany, but the rising export values are narrowing the gap.
There is talk that in the future, Russia may incorporate the crop production from occupied Ukrainian territory into their own numbers. This could increase their wheat crop from around 90-92 mmt to 100 mmt. However, even if this is true, the USDA may not recognize the adjustments.
The average pre-report estimate for US wheat carryout is 685 mb versus 673 mb in March and compares to 570 mb last year. Additionally, global ending stocks are expected to come in at 258.6 mmt versus 258.8 mmt in March and 271.1 mmt last year.
According to CPI data this morning, the rate of inflation increased to 3.5% in March versus a year ago. In addition, for the month of March, the consumer price index rose 0.4% from February, which was higher than anticipated. This implies that the Federal Reserve has more work to do in terms of fighting inflation. This also has the US Dollar Index sharply higher this morning, which may cap the upside for wheat futures.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to the USDA, 3% of the nation’s corn crop is now planted. This is in line with last year and just above the average of 2%.
Corn inspections yesterday at 55.9 mb surpassed the 49.1 mb pace necessary to reach the USDA’s estimate. Inspections are running 35.2% above last year, whereas the USDA is looking for a 26% increase.
South American weather is mostly favorable and some of the drier areas including Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are expected to see a wetter pattern by mid-month. Additionally, good rains in the northern areas should benefit the safrinha crop.
USDA reported another private export sale for 124,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybean meal is under pressure this morning, perhaps in anticipation of competition from Argentina, the number one meal exporter, which is expected to have a crop double the size of last year.
Private estimates and CONAB have the Brazilian soybean production estimates 7-10 mmt under the USDA’s current estimate. With a WASDE report this Thursday, it is possible that the USDA will lower their number.
The USDA reported that the condition of winter wheat remained unchanged from last week at 56% good to excellent, surpassing expectations. These current conditions mark the best performance since 2020 at this stage of the growing season.
The USDA also said that spring wheat planting is 3% complete, which is in line with the average, but ahead of last year’s 1% at this time.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat FOB values have risen to $210 per mt, however this remains the world’s cheapest offer and this continues to limit the upside for US futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
