CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s corn production from 111.6 mmt to 114.1 mmt. However, this remains about 8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate on yesterday’s WASDE report.
The USDA reported an increase of 41.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 49.2 mb exceeded the 40.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 23/24 export goal of 2.150 bb.
December corn broke back above the 100-day moving average (472-1/4) today. It has closed below this moving average for the last two weeks, so this may be a sign of a bullish recovery. The next upside resistance is not far away however, with the 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages converged near the 475 to 476 area.
Talk of worsening drought in Mexico could lead to them taking more corn from the US, despite the current dispute on GMO imports.
CONAB slightly lowered their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production, from 147.78 mmt to 147.35 mmt. This is still about 6 mmt lower than the USDA’s estimate on yesterday’s WASDE report.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.9 mb fell below the 13.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the 23/24 export goal of 1.700 bb.
Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybean oil is trading lower this morning, despite reports that India’s palm oil imports increased by 11.6% in May, when compared with the month prior. This doesn’t appear to be affecting soybean futures much, however, as they are currently leading the grain complex higher.
On yesterday’s monthly supply and demand report, the USA lowered world wheat production by 7.4 mmt, with 5 mmt of that being a reduction in Russia. There were also cuts to Ukrainian and EU production. This may provide longer-term support to the wheat market.
The USDA reported an increase of 8.2 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 9.6 mb fell below the 15.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 24/25 export goal of 800 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures are slightly higher at midday. With a chart gap above the market that may be filled over time, and support holding at the 50-day moving average so far, there may be room for prices to recover and give a boost to the US market. However, this may require more friendly news first.
In their estimate, Strategie Grains reduced the European Union soft wheat crop to 121.8 mmt, which was a reduction of 1.7 mmt from a month ago. This may also provide some bullish support to US wheat prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
This morning’s CPI data was better than expected, coming out unchanged from last month and versus expectations for a 0.1% increase. This has led to a decline in the US Dollar Index and rallying equity markets, which could provide some spillover support into commodities.
The American and European weather models are somewhat divergent, with the European showing below normal precipitation and hotter temperatures for the eastern corn belt, while the American model shows more chances for rain in this region.
Dry conditions in Brazil have been allowing the southern region to recover from last month’s historic flooding. Additionally, the warmer temperatures are allowing the safrinha crop to mature but are not favorable for the later planted corn that is still underdeveloped.
The US is becoming more competitive with soybean exports, as the basis in Brazil continues to climb.
Both palm oil and crude oil are higher this morning, offering support. However, soybean oil and soybean futures aren’t responding, with both trading slightly lower at midday.
The USDA reported private export sales of 106,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
China may have turned to the US to buy soybeans after the recent tax change in Brazil. Since the change was announced last Tuesday, Chinese importers have purchased 208,000 mt of US soybeans.
Due to frosts in May, some are estimating that Russia may have lost 15-30% of their wheat crop. Now a warmer and drier forecast could have a further impact.
After a strong rally yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning, so far failing to fill the chart gap from last week and offering weakness to the US market.
Harvest pressure may be the limiting factor in the wheat market, as Monday’s crop progress report showed winter wheat harvest at 12% complete, double the average pace.
Egypt tendered for wheat on Tuesday, with that being filled by Ukraine and the EU. Russian export values have been on the rise recently, which may have caused them to lose out on the business.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to the USDA, corn is 95% planted and 85% emerged. Additionally, 74% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 1% from last week, but up from 61% a year ago.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout comes in at 1.984 bb versus 2.022 bb in May. For 24/25, the estimate is 2.048 bb versus 2.102 bb in May. Additionally, Argentina’s corn production is expected to be reduced to 51.2 mmt from 53.0 mmt last month, while Brazil’s corn production is also expected to be reduced to 121.0 mmt from 122.0 mmt last month.
Temperatures over the next two weeks are expected to be above normal for much of the US corn belt. In addition, rains are expected to be less than normal, except for northwestern areas.
According to the USDA, soybeans are 87% planted and 70% emerged. Additionally, 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent, compared with 59% a year ago.
Private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year in a flash sale this morning.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout comes in at 348 mb versus 340 mb in May. For 24/25 the estimate is 455 mb versus 445 mb in May. Argentina’s soybean production is also expected to be slightly reduced to 49.8 mmt from 50.0 mmt last month, while Brazil’s soybean production is expected to see a bigger reduction to 151.8 mmt from 154.0 mmt last month.
According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop is rated 47% good to excellent, down 2% from last week, but above 38% last year. Additionally, 12% of the crop is harvested, which is double the average pace of 6%.
The USDA reported that the spring wheat crop is 98% planted, 2% above the average pace. Additionally, 87% of the crop is emerged, and 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent. This is a 2% decline from last week but remains above the 60% rating a year ago.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout comes in at 690 mb versus 688 mb in May. For 24/25 the estimate is 782 mb versus 766 in May.
Chicago wheat is trading higher at midday after finding support. The July contract tested the 100 day moving average around 604 before rallying. Furthermore, wheat has become technically oversold after the recent slide, and may be due for a correction to the upside.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to the CFTC, managed funds added about 80,000 short contracts, bringing their net short in corn to 212,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
The European weather model shows less than normal rainfall for the US corn belt over the next 10 days, excluding the northwestern areas.
US corn futures may be finding some support from the rise in South American FOB values, with Brazil’s corn basis said to have increased 6-12 cents on Friday.
Expectations for this afternoon’s crop progress report are for corn ratings to be historically high at around 75% good to excellent.
According to the CFTC, managed funds added about 45,000 short contracts, bringing their net short in soybeans to 60,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
NOPA reportedly increased their estimate of April crush by 3 mb to 169.6 mb. This is said to have been done because of a reporting error with the initial data.
Soybean oil is lower this morning, potentially from pressure in the palm oil market, which is down 1.5% on Monday. However, meal is higher, and this is being reflected in the mixed trade for soybean futures.
Expectations for this afternoon’s crop progress report are for soybean ratings, like corn, to be historically high at 73% to 75% good to excellent.
As of last Tuesday, managed funds added only 8,000 short contracts to their position in the wheat complex. Therefore, recent market weakness was not necessarily caused by speculative selling.
According to APK Inform, they estimate that Ukraine’s total grain harvest will fall to 52.7 mmt, a reduction of 12%, driven by worsening drought in the eastern area.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again this morning; if they have a lower close, it would be for the sixth consecutive session. This is offering weakness to the US market.
World wheat values declined after news last week that Turkey had decided to cut off wheat imports through October 15. This may result in 2.5 mmt of wheat not being exported from Russia (to Turkey) which would normally occur in the June – October timeframe.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today after breaking the 7-day string of losses yesterday. July futures have faced resistance at the 100-day moving average at 452, and the December contract also moved lower after touching its 100-day.
Yesterday’s strength came from short covering by the funds who were estimated to buy back approximately 10,000 contracts after being heavy sellers the 7 previous days. It also came from good export sales numbers which were on the high end of expectations. Lower wheat today is likely dragging corn lower.
Yesterday’s Export Sales report showed an increase of 46.5 mb of corn sales in 23/24 and an increase of 4.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher range of estimates, and last week’s export shipments of 58.6 mb were well above the 38.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate.
Soybeans are trading lower today and are giving back most of yesterday’s gains as selling pressure resumes by the funds. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well, and the weakness comes despite a flash sale reported this morning.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This is only the second soybean flash sale reported to China so far this year.
Part of yesterday’s strength in soybeans was related to potential changes in Brazil’s tax code that could make Brazilian exports more expensive and could boost US exports, but the tax code still needs to be approved by Congress in the next four months.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat continuing to lead the way lower. July Chicago wheat is now trading 95 cents below last week’s high as funds take advantage of the higher prices and farmer selling occurs.
World wheat stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.6% in 24.25 totaling 306.8 mmt. There is potential for production to fall in the EU, Turkey, the UK, and Ukraine. On the other hand, the US, India, and Australia are expected to have above normal production.
In Russia, the weather remains hot and dry which is taking a toll on the wheat crop there, and yesterday, SovEcon reduced their production estimate to 80.7 mmt while acknowledging that production could fall to under 80.0 mmt if conditions remain dry.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is finally trading higher today after posting seven consecutively lower closes with the funds likely adding over 50,000 short contracts during that timeframe. Today’s move could be due to some short covering by the funds, but there are also some prevent plant concerns in corn.
Weather premium could be getting factored in as well, but it may be a bit early. The forecast for this month is mostly dry, but many fields need the dryness after such a wet spring. In addition, the second week of June is expected to be hot and wet, which could be beneficial to crops.
As of May 30, the USDA reported an increase of 46.5 mb of corn export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 4.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher range of estimates, and last week’s export shipments of 58.6 mb were well above the 38.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Saudi Arabia.
Soybeans are trading sharply higher today along with corn, and the July futures are pressing right up against the 100-day moving average which could be resistance at 1200. Support is mainly coming from soybean oil which is higher thanks to gains in palm oil. Soybean meal is slightly higher as well.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 7.0 mb of soybean sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower range of trade expectations and puts soybean sales down 15% from the previous year.
Last week’s soybean export shipments of 14.3 mb were above the 12.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels in 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Turkey.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today and are led by KC wheat despite poor export sales. The spread between December Chicago wheat and December corn has been at its highest level since the war began in Ukraine but has begun to narrow in the last week as wheat prices retreat.
Today’s export sales report was disappointing for wheat with the USDA reporting net cancellations of 8.4 million bushels in 23/24 and an increase of 22.7 mb for 24/25.
Last week’s export shipments of 16.5 mb were below the 28.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading near unchanged today after six consecutively lower closes and appears to have found some support at the 440 level in July and 460 level in December. Funds have been getting back into recently exited short positions and are estimated to have sold 41,500 contracts over the past five days.
Later today, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum report, and a reduction in ethanol production is expected following last week’s increase of over 5%.
In South America, weather is expected to intensify throughout the rest of the second crop corn development with warm temperatures forecast for Argentina, and hot and dry conditions for Brazil which could intensify the drought in the western Central region.
Soybeans are trading mixed to higher after a series of lower closes. Support today is coming from soybean meal while soybean oil trades unchanged to lower. Funds have likely been selling soybeans along with corn and are estimated to have sold 27,250 contracts over the past five days.
There have been some rumors that corn acres that have been too wet may switch to soybeans, but with prices of both corn and soybeans below many producers’ break evens, there is a chance that some will take Prevent Plant.
In Brazil, the soybean harvest is virtually wrapped up, but on Tuesday, reports came out that estimated around 2.5 million metric tons of soybeans may have been lost due to the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The USDA’s last estimate of 154 mmt is likely too high.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with July Chicago wheat now down nearly a dollar from last week’s high as funds pile back into their short positions. Over the past five days, funds are estimated to have sold 30,000 contracts of wheat.
In Australia, consultancy ABARES has forecast the 24/25 winter wheat crop production at 51.3 mmt which would be a 10% increase year over year if realized. This would be due to an increase in acres and yields and would be their 6th largest winter wheat crop.
In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has reversed from its earlier morning lows and is now trading higher across the board with the front months leading the way higher despite lower wheat prices. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that planting is ahead of the 5-year average, but historically, planting is at a relatively slow pace.
Highlights from yesterday’s USDA report show that planting is 91% for corn which is up from 83% a week ago, emergence is at 74%, and the first good to excellent rating received this year is pegged at 75%.
In Brazil, StoneX has cut its forecast for the 2024 second corn crop by 3.9% to 93.5 mmt. The second crop corn typically totals about 75% of Brazil’s total corn production, and the cut is due to dry weather.
Soybeans are mixed at midday but have also reversed from earlier lows along with corn. The two front months are trading higher while deferred contracts are slightly lower. Soybean oil is also mixed with slight gains in the front months, and soybean meal is trading lower.
Highlights from yesterday’s USDA report show soybeans plantings at 78% complete which compares to 68% a week ago, and 55% of the crop is emerged which compares to 39% a week ago. The first crop conditions will likely be released this coming Monday.
US soybean crushing for April was seen at 178 million bushels which was down 4.9% from the same time last year. Lower crush margins have been a bearish factor.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with Chicago wheat leading the way lower, and this would be the fifth consecutively lower close if prices remain lower. Crop progress was relatively bearish for spring wheat with good crop conditions and planting nearly complete.
In winter wheat, the USDA said that 49% of the crop has been rated good to excellent, which is up a point from last week and compares to 36% a year ago. 83% is headed which compares to the average of 78%, and 6% is harvested which compares to the average of 3% for this time.
In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday after trading either side of unchanged as it follows the volatility in wheat. The July contract has now broken through support at $4.45 and may challenge the April low of $4.35 3/4.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report which will also include the season’s first crop ratings. Weather has been mixed with heavy rainfall in parts of the country which could cause delays for the crop yet to be planted.
In Argentina, below normal precipitation is forecast over the next three months which will be beneficial for both the corn and soybean harvests. Argentina is now around 70% complete with its corn harvest.
Soybeans are trading lower today with heavy pressure from soybean oil which is down 2.30% in the July contract, and soybean meal is not helping either with small losses. The expectation is that today’s Crop Progress Report will show that soybean planting is advancing at a good clip.
Last week, the USDA pegged soybean planting progress at 68% which was 5 points above the average pace. Expectations for today’s report are between 84 and 85% completion as of this past Sunday. There is also discussion about how many acres will go to prevent plant with rain still in the forecast.
Soybean crush in the month of April has been estimated at 175.5 million bushels as analyst expect that the USDA will peg crush at a 7-month low. If realized, this would be down 13.9% from the 203.7 mb crushed in March and down 6.1% from April 2023.
Wheat is currently lower at midday but has been very volatile in today’s session with Chicago wheat at one point 19 cents higher in July before likely running into some selling pressure. All three classes are now trading lower on the day. Dry conditions in the Black Sea region continue to be a bullish factor.
In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.
Unlike the rest of the world, Australia is faring well with its weather, and as a result may see its wheat crop rise by as much as 5.7% thanks to the rains. Their total production is estimated at 27.4 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mostly lower at midday as it slipped from its earlier morning highs, as selling pressure continues. Open interest has risen by about 50,000 contracts over the past three trading sessions, which could indicate that funds are reentering their short positions.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 31.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 in the week ending May 23 and an increase of 7.4 mb for 24/25. This was in the middle of the range of trade expectations and puts commitments up 31% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 41.1 million bushels were above the 39.0 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
Soybeans are trading higher today but along with corn, prices have slipped from overnight highs. Soybean meal is trading higher, while soybean oil is slightly lower but has been mostly rangebound over the past two weeks. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported an increase in export sales totaling 12.1 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was also within trade expectations but continues the trend of poor export sales. Sales commitments are now down 15% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 million bushels were below the 12.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
All three wheat classes are now trading lower after reversing from overnight highs with Chicago wheat now leading the way lower. Prices are now over 30 cents off Tuesday’s highs and the selloff is likely due to farmer selling and technicals cooling off after being overbought.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported net cancellations totaling 2.2 million bushels of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.0 mb for 24/25. Total sales were on the low end of trade estimates for old crop but above trade estimates for new crop.
Last week’s export shipments of 13.0 mb were below the 20.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
