On Friday, December corn closed above the 100-day moving average for the second session in a row; a higher close today would mark the third. The next upside resistance may be around the 200-day moving average – about the 495 level.
Crude oil is trading higher this morning, which is also offering support to grains. This may be due to Saudi Arabia raising their oil prices, as well as talk of an Israeli attack on Rafah.
According to the CFTC, managed funds are still short about 218,000 corn contracts. With more storm systems expected in the US this week, there may be more concern about planting delays, which could trigger more short covering.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their Argentina corn crop estimate by 3 mmt to 46.5 mmt. This is nearly 10 mmt below the first estimates early in the season.
Heavy rains and flooding in southern Brazil are becoming more of a concern. An estimated 2-4 mmt of soybeans may be lost, with 25% of the crop said to still be in the fields of Rio Grande do Sul.
Soybeans are sharply higher at midday, after a weaker start to the session. Soybean oil, soybean meal, and palm oil are all higher as well, offering their support.
On Friday there was a flash sale of US soybeans to unknown destinations in the amount of 122,000 mt. Given the issues faced in southern Brazil, as well as harvest delays in Argentina, it may keep US exports competitive for a bit longer than usual.
Today, July soybeans rallied through the 200-day moving average which is around 1221. If they close above this average today, it would be the first time the July contract has done so since December.
Good rain coverage over the weekend in southwest Kansas may be putting pressure on KC wheat futures. Rain also fell over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. There is the potential for some severe storms this week as well.
Paris milling wheat futures are up sharply at midday with gains of about 4-5 Euros, providing support to the US market. This may be due to the French wheat crop being rated 63% good to excellent, versus a rating above 90% at this time last year.
There are concerns about the Russian wheat crop, with IKAR last week lowering their estimate by 2 mmt to 91 mmt. With dryness in the Black Sea region expected to persist into mid-May, there is the potential for further reductions.
According to the CFTC data, managed funds have bought 44,000 contracts of combined Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures. This puts the joint net short position now at 78,000 contracts (as of last Tuesday).
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher today for the third day in a row, has broken out of its sideways pattern, and is now trading above the 100-day moving average for the first time since October of last year. Excessive rains leading to planting delays have been supportive.
The recent gains in corn are likely a combination of potential planting delays in the US, hot and dry weather for Brazil’s second crop corn, and the very large short position that the funds hold which they have likely been exiting.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Exchange cut its corn production estimate to 46.5 mmt from 49.5 million and down 10 million from the early season estimate, due to insect, disease, and weather damage.
Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed slightly off their earlier highs. July soybeans are on track for their third consecutive higher close, and for nearly a 30-cent gain on the week. Soybean meal is trading higher again while soybean oil is lower.
In Brazil, the soybean growing areas around Rio Grande do Sul are experiencing flooding, which is delaying harvest, and reportedly 25% of the crop in that region is still in the field potentially causing significant losses in production.
Private exporters reported to the US Department of Agriculture export sales of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
All three wheat classes are trading sharply higher this morning led by Chicago wheat. The July contract has not yet taken out the high from April 26, but it is above the 200-day moving average.
Consultancy firm IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 24/25 Russian wheat crop by 2 mmt to 91 mmt. Its export outlook has been lowered to 50.5 mmt from 52 mmt.
In India, wheat stocks are reportedly much lower than a year ago, and hot and dry forecasts over the next month could threaten this year’s wheat production. At the moment, global weather is an issue that is affecting wheat in many different areas.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 29.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 54.4 mb far surpassed the 39.0 mb needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb for 23/24.
Yesterday the EPA and USDA did announce an updated GREET model, which allows corn-based ethanol to qualify for tax credits in the making of sustainable aviation fuel. However, producers must show that the corn was produced in an eco-friendly manner.
According to the USDA, corn use in the month of March for the production of ethanol reached 469 mb. This was above expectations and also the highest for any month in over two years.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday afternoon. While they are at a 23-year high, Chairman Powell indicated rate hikes are not anticipated and cuts could still come later this year.
Soybeans are trading sharply higher today led by large gains in soybean meal which is up nearly 3% on the day. July soybeans are right at resistance at their 50-day moving average, and a close above that level could potentially see prices rallying further.
The USDA reported an increase of 15.2 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 9.9 mb fell below the 12.8 mb needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.7 bb for 23/24.
Southern Brazil is experiencing heavy rains, which are causing delays to soybean harvest as areas have become waterlogged. An estimated 4-6 mmt are sitting in fields in Rio Grande do Sul.
March census crush reported by US NASS yesterday afternoon came in at a record high for the month of March at 203.73 mb. While this was a new record, still showing strong domestic demand, the number was below the range of estimates. Bean oil stocks for the month of March were reported at 2.369 billion pounds, though lower than year-ago levels, they were higher than trade expectations and are likely weighing on bean oil prices.
The USDA reported a decrease of 0.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 15.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 18.7 mb exceeded the 16.4 mb needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb for 23/24.
Rain totals so far this week in southern Russia have been disappointing, and a drier trend may be coming back. This may provide some support to wheat futures. The world has been heavily reliant on Russian wheat supplies, so the prospect of smaller production may be causing short covering.
In India, wheat stocks are reportedly much lower than a year ago, and hot and dry forecasts over the next month could threaten this year’s wheat production. At the moment, global weather is an issue that is affecting wheat in many different areas.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today with the July contract now below its level of support that has been in place over the past week. This would be the fourth consecutively lower day of trade, and December corn is now below its 20-day moving average. There have been only 3 deliveries against the May contract since First Notice Day on Monday.
Planting delays in the US are still expected as the central and southern Plains are forecast to receive rains today with more storms expected in the country throughout the rest of the week. Delays due to excess rains could last until May 18.
In Brazil, the primary growing state of Mato Grosso is hot and dry which could cause a reduction in total production. The Argentine corn crop is also in jeopardy of being reduced by 1 mmt to 49 mmt due to the disease being spread by leaf hopper bugs.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher today with some support from soybean oil after two sharply lower trading sessions. Soybean meal is trading lower as Argentina’s worker strike has ended and their ongoing soybean harvest, which is expected to be more than twice as large as last year’s, will flood the market with bean meal.
Later today, the Census Crush numbers will be released for March, and they are expected to show total crush at 205 million bushels which would compare to 193.9 mb the previous month. Soybean oil stocks are expected to increase to 2.350 billion pounds from 2.146 billion in February.
The USDA will release its Supply and Demand report next Friday, and a wide discrepancy of 8 mmt remains in place between CONAB’s estimate for Brazilian soybean production and the USDA’s estimate with CONAB guessing lower. It is possible that the USDA will lower this number slightly next week.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the complex lower followed by losses in Chicago wheat. July KC wheat has fallen 34 cents from its Monday high as producers and speculative sellers were quick to take advantage of the rally that was likely caused by worry over the size of Russia’s wheat crop.
Russian and Ukrainian FOB values are the cheapest available, but the recent dry weather has caused concern for Russia’s 24/25 crop size. Russia still has a large amount of old crop supplies which should keep their values cheap.
Australian wheat production is expected to come in around 26 mmt for 24/25 which is a slightly higher projection than last month’s at 25.8 mmt. This number would also be 3% lower than the 10-year moving average, and exports are expected to decline as well.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading a little lower today but is relatively quiet compared to the losses in both soybeans and wheat. There were no deliveries against the May corn contract, which has been supportive today.
The Brazilian corn crop for 23/24 has been revised higher by consultancy Datagro to 115.85 mmt which compares to their last estimate of 114.9 mmt. The revision higher is due to increased production in the central growing regions thanks to improved weather.
Yesterday evening, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed corn plantings at 27% complete which was right on the nose with trade estimates, compared to 12% last week, and the 5-year average of 22%. 7% of the corn crop is emerged which compares to 3% last week and 5% a year ago.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday with the bulk of pressure coming from sharply lower soybean oil which has reached its lowest value since March of 2021. July soybeans failed at their 50-day moving average yesterday and have drifted lower since.
There were 533 deliveries against the May soybeans this morning, 222 against soybean meal, and notably, 2,101 deliveries against May soybean oil. The large number of deliveries are weighing on futures, along with lower palm oil.
The USDA’s crop progress report showed that 18% of the soybean crop has been planted, which was slightly above the average trade guess of 17%. This compares to 8% last week and the 5-year average of 10% for this time of year.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with the bulk of losses in KC wheat while Chicago and then Minneapolis follow behind. Winter wheat crop conditions fell by one point from last week, but the pressure over the past two days is likely due to farmer selling following last week’s sharp rally.
This morning, there were 1,151 contracts of wheat delivered against the May Chicago contract with the nearest short date on April 29. While this was a large number of deliveries, there were none reported for KC or Minneapolis wheat.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 49% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, which is 1 point down from last week but is still above last year’s rating of 28%. 34% of spring wheat is planted which compares to 15% last week, and 5% of spring wheat is emerged which compares to 2% last week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday with pressure from the wheat market which is retreating from last week’s gains. July corn is trading back at its 50-day moving average which could now act as support following last week’s break higher.
Over the weekend, heavy rains fell throughout the Corn Belt with some areas receiving up to 4 inches. The 2-week forecast is also showing further rains which may impact planting progress and cause delays but will be beneficial in some areas for soil moisture.
Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report, and estimates are that 30 to 32% of planting will have been completed by Sunday. The western regions may be further ahead as they have received less rain in general.
Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed off from their highs earlier this morning. Soybean meal remains trading higher and is supporting bean futures, but soybean oil futures have slipping significantly and are now following palm oil lower.
Friday’s CFTC report showed the funds buying back parts of their short position in soybeans which has left them net short 149,000 contracts. In soybean meal, funds have exited their net short position completely and now hold a net long position of 20,000 contracts.
Today’s crop progress report is expected to show that between 19 and 21% of the soybean crop is planted as of Sunday, and soybeans will face a similar issue to corn in that the next two weeks is forecast to be rainy.
Wheat is mixed with Chicago trading sharply lower, KC near unchanged to slightly lower, and Minneapolis higher. Last week saw July Chicago wheat gain over 55 cents which likely attracted selling pressure from producers and the funds.
In Russia, there are concerns of drought conditions next month which could impact total production and is likely behind the large amount of short covering last week. While there may be concerns over new crop, Russia still holds a large supply of old crop wheat.
Last Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 20,219 contracts of Chicago wheat which reduced their net short position to 76,184 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The extended forecast in Brazil remains hot and dry, potentially impacting their safrinha crop yield potential, with harvest still approximately a month away.
The most recent US drought monitor map indicates improving conditions, with the drought area shrinking. Furthermore, with good rains forecasted over the next few days, conditions are expected to continue improving over the next week.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn crop condition has declined to only 17% rated as good to excellent, marking a 3% decrease from the previous week.
The South African corn crop is projected to decline to 13.4 million metric tons compared to 17.1 million metric tons last year. This further adds to the bullish narrative, as they will likely need to increase corn imports.
After opening slightly higher this morning, palm oil futures have shifted to negative territory. Meanwhile, soybean oil futures are currently holding steady just above unchanged levels. With world vegetable oil markets on a downward trend, this may continue to exert pressure on bean oil.
Brazilian soybean basis levels have shown signs of strengthening, accompanied by a rebound in their currency. This development could potentially enhance the competitiveness of US exports, although concerns about global demand persist, particularly regarding China.
Argentina’s soybean harvest is reported to be 26% complete, which is roughly half of the average pace. Progress has been hindered by rains, slowing down their harvesting activities this year.
At the time of writing, July Chicago wheat is testing its 200-day moving average (about 628). It has not closed above this level since July 2023, so a rally above this resistance level may signal more upside potential.
Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia continue to be too dry and warm and are expected to remain that way for the next 10 days. This may have helped wheat to rally over the past several sessions.
Paris milling wheat futures are on an upward trend, providing support to the US market. In a significant development, the September contract closed above its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since July 2023. Additionally, French wheat conditions have reportedly declined to their lowest level in four years, with only 63% rated as good to excellent.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported corn export sales of 51.2 mb for 23/24 and 10.3 mb for 24/25. Last week’s shipments at 67.3 mb were well above the 40.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb.
Yesterday’s ethanol production data was disappointing, coming in below expectations for the second week in a row. It was down 3% from the previous week and also well below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s corn usage forecast of 5.4 bb.
The Biden administration is reportedly set to release a climate model regarding subsidies for sustainable aviation fuel on Tuesday. This will determine how and if ethanol producers will qualify for tax credits in the production of these fuels. With gasoline usage expected to decline, this is viewed as a way for ethanol production to remain profitable.
The USDA reported soybean export sales of just 7.7 mb for 23/24 and 4.4 mb for 24/25. Last week’s shipments at 15.3 mb surpassed the 12.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.7 bb.
GDP data today showed that the US economy grew slower than expectations. The market was looking for a 2.2% increase, but it came in at 1.6% today, which is the lightest growth since 2022. This may renew US economic concerns, which may in turn affect the commodity complex.
Malaysian palm oil has been sharply declining, which is pressuring both soybean oil and soybean futures. Soybean oil is also said to have lower margins, and as Brazil nears completion of their harvest, they are expected to be dominant on the global export market.
The USDA reported wheat export sales of only 3.0 mb for 23/24 and 13.7 mb for 24/25. Last week’s shipments at 21.1 mb surpassed the 17.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb.
India’s wheat supplies have reportedly hit 16-year lows. After a couple years of reduced yields, the government sold record volumes of wheat from their reserves to tame domestic food inflation. Now India needs to replenish supplies, but their purchases are down 25% vs a year ago; they may need to step up to import as much as 3-5 mmt wheat from other countries.
Rain is expected to cover much of the Midwest this week and into the weekend. However, the American and European weather models are somewhat in disagreement. The American model keeps dryness in Texas and Oklahoma, but the European model shows more rain will benefit HRW wheat areas.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With the safrinha corn harvest still about a month away, the forecast of rainfall in Brazil has turned drier and temperatures are above normal. An estimated 67% of that crop is pollinating, so moisture is needed.
December corn futures have strong resistance around the 100-day moving average, which is at the 480 level. Additionally, some technical indicators like daily stochastics are approaching overbought conditions after the recent rally. Both things could limit upside movement for prices.
Later this week, storms are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain to the majority of the US corn belt. While this may postpone plantings, the benefit to soil and crop conditions will likely outweigh any delay concerns.
Brazilian soybean values are becoming more expensive. Their currency, the Real, is trending higher and basis levels are firming, which may lend some support to the US market.
Despite Argentina’s soybean harvest advancing and the expectation of fresh soybean meal supplies, US soybean meal futures are trading higher for the fourth session in a row.
Lower crude oil and palm oil prices have been weighing on soybean oil futures. However, longer term support may come from the anticipated increase in biodiesel demand.
Both May contracts of Chicago and Kansas City wheat have reached the highest levels since early February. And while the KC contract is currently above its 100-day moving average, the Chicago contract is hitting resistance at that level (around 5.88).
Heat and dryness in southwest Russia are becoming more of a concern for their wheat crop. If this pattern continues through May, it could reduce their production, which could be supportive to US futures.
According to APK Inform, Ukraine has exported 40 mmt of grain as of April 24. This is on par with last year’s 40.7 mt and is impressive considering their logistics issues and destruction of infrastructure.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, corn planting is now 12% complete, up from 6% last week. This is in line with last year, and slightly above the average pace of 10%.
Corn futures yesterday closed above the 50-day moving average for the first time in three weeks and are holding above that level so far today.
Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were a marketing year high at 64 mb and came in above expectations.
Scattered showers are expected over much of the corn belt over the next few days. Heavier rains are anticipated later in the week and into next week, but the longer range outlook is a little drier into the first week of May.
The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that soybean planting is now 8% complete, up from 3% last week, and in line with last year and double the average pace of 4%.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is around 90% complete, but there remains a big discrepancy between the USDA production numbers for South America, compared with most private estimates (which are lower).
Weekly soybean export inspections at 16 mb were ok, but inspections are running 18.2% below a year ago while the USDA is forecasting a 14.6% drop, which may indicate that their soybean export estimate might be reduced on the next WASDE report.
There are rumors that China purchased two or three cargoes of soybean from Brazil yesterday. Their demand has been on the slower side, and it is estimated that they have most of their needs covered through June.
According to the USDA, winter wheat is rated 50% good to excellent, down 5% from last week. Moreover, 17% of the crop has entered the heading stage, compared to the average of 13%. Additionally, the USDA reported that 15% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, showing an increase from 7% last week and above the 10% average.
US wheat is still uncompetitive compared to many world origins. Yesterday’s rally does not help the situation, as the export market is still dominated by cheap Russian wheat. Russian wheat exports are anticipated to be record large this year at 52 mmt.
Despite recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure, Ukraine is still expected to export as much as 7 mmt of grain in the month of April.
So far today, the US Dollar Index has dropped to the lowest level since April 12. Technically it appears to have more room to fall, which could be supportive to wheat prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
