Over the next week or so, much of the eastern corn belt will receive good rain, which is likely to keep a lid on any rallies. Conversely, there is heat and dryness projected for the northwestern Midwest; this could affect corn with shallow roots in areas that were too wet.
According to CFTC data, funds are now short 354,000 contracts of corn, which is their largest net short position since 2019.
Some analysts suggest that there could be as much as 500K-900K acres of prevent plant in corn. In August NASS will give traders an update with seeded and harvested acres with FSA farm data. This could be bullish long term.
Despite the lower trend, so far December corn futures have held support at four dollars. This is an important level from a psychological perspective, and may continue to hold, as corn is technically oversold.
The Commitments of Traders report on Friday indicated that managed funds hold a record short soybean position. On one hand, this could lead to a short covering rally in the event of friendly news. On the other hand, the trend remains lower for now, and they may continue to add to shorts with momentum in their favor.
CONAB’s estimate of Brazilian soybean production is still 5.7 mmt below the USDA’s 153.0 mmt forecast, which was unchanged from last month on Friday’s report. If the USDA revises this number lower on future reports, it could provide some support to the market.
China purchased 4.9 mb of US new crop soybeans last week; this was their first new crop purchase so far. With the drop in US soybean prices, China may come back for more, but so far their absence has been a bearish factor to the market.
Some analysts suggest that soybean prevent plant, as will be reported by NASS in August, could total 400K-800K acres. As in corn, this could paint a more long term bullish picture.
The USDA report last Friday estimated better than expected production for both winter and spring wheat. This is weighing on all three futures classes at midday.
Paris milling wheat futures are down sharply at midday, after having gapped lower on their open. At the time of writing, the front month September contract is down six Euros, and is trading at the lowest level since late April and does not bode well for support to US wheat futures.
Russian wheat export values are said to have fallen again, to $218 per mt FOB, and is also adding pressure to the marketplace. When, and if, Russian export values begin to rise it may help us prices. But for now, this remains a bearish factor.
On a somewhat bullish note, the USDA did increase US wheat demand on Friday’s report. Feed usage was increased, and exports were raised by 25 mb to 825 mb. So far US wheat exports are off to a good start for the season, and this could eventually result in a cut to ending stocks.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday ahead of the WASDE report which will be released at 11am central. At this point, futures have given up all of yesterday’s gains as trade anticipates a bearish report.
Estimates for today’s USDA report are for a small increase in old crop ending stocks and a new crop carryout which could be near 2.3 billion bushels. The data from the June 1 stocks report will be included in this report in which 150 mb more of stocks were found.
Yesterday, CONAB revised its estimates for the Brazilian corn crop and increased it to 115.86 mmt which compared to last week’s guess of 114.14 mmt. The USDA will likely keep their estimate above CONAB’s today as it has done all season.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday along with the rest of the grain complex as trade expects a mostly bearish USDA report. Futures have slid from earlier this morning when prices were slightly higher, and now both soybean meal and oil are both lower as well.
Expectations for today’s report are for new crop soybean ending stocks to fall slightly by 6 mb to 449 mb, but the range of estimates is wide and could leave trade surprised. The USDA has maintained its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop well above CONAB’s, so it is unlikely they will drop production estimates much today.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the low end of trade estimates with 7.6 mb of old crop sold, 7 mb of new crop, and shipments soft at 9.8 mb. China made its first purchase of new crop soybeans this week, but they will need to purchase more to move the market in a significant way.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down, having given up most of yesterday’s gains, while Chicago and Minneapolis contracts are mostly all below yesterday’s range. Prices have been moving in wide ranges each day but have been rangebound overall over the past month.
Expectations for today’s report are for total wheat production to rise by 37 mb and for ending stocks to rise by 29 mb to 788 mb on June 30, 2025. While the report is expected to be bearish, much of it could be priced in at this point.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was below the range of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 10.8 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday as prices rebound from the lower start to the week across the grain complex. Export sales were soft today, but futures have been oversold and funds are likely taking profits on a portion of their short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 21.2 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 4.6 mb for 24/25. This was up 51% from last week but down 13% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 34.6 mb were above the 33.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
This morning, CONAB updated its estimates for Brazilian corn production and increased the number to 115.86 mmt which compares to 114.14 mmt last month. This is still well below last year’s production of 131.89 mmt, and this year’s estimate is still below the USDA’s estimate.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday but have backed off slightly from the earlier morning highs. Exports were on the softer side again this week. Soybean meal is mixed with the front months slightly higher and deferred contracts lower. Soybean oil is leading soybeans higher today.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase in soybean export sales of 7.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 14.3 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Japan.
This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazil’s soybean production but made few changes. Production was called at 147.34 mmt compared to 147.35 mmt last month. This compares to 154.61 mmt last year.
All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday with KC leading the way up. There is likely some short covering ahead of tomorrow’s report, but CPI data that was released today showed inflation easing which is likely supporting the grain complex as a whole today.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was below the range of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 10.8 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.
Ukrainian grain exports are expected to rise by over 1 mmt this marketing year with 1.13 mmt of grain already exported in the season that started July 1. This is a 62% increase over the 698k tons exported at this same time last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is mixed at midday with the front month trading slightly higher while the deferred contracts trade lower. Hurricane Beryl brought significant rains across the dry eastern Corn Belt yesterday with amounts up to two inches, and showers are still falling further east today.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report for ethanol see production lower than last week at 1.049m barrels per day and average stocks estimates at 23.604m bbl which would compare to 23.594 million a week ago. Ethanol margins have been improving, and an average plant in the Midwest is estimated to have margins of 35 to 40 cents a gallon.
Funds have been aggressively selling across the ag complex and are estimated to be net short 350,000 contracts of corn which would be a new record net short position taking out February’s 340,000 net short.
Soybeans are trading lower today as futures continue to slide due to favorable weather conditions. Today, futures are bear spread in a reversal from the previous trend in which the August contract has performed better than the new crop contracts with strong demand for cash soybeans.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during MY 24/25. This was the first sale of new crop soybeans to China so far this year.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. After rallying a month ago due to Russian production concerns, prices have slid due to harvest pressure, higher than expected Russian production estimates, and poor export demand.
In Europe, weather is causing production problems for the wheat crop, with Ukraine and Russia expected to produce less than last year as well. Although, Russia is still expected to dominate the global export market as they continue to offer the cheapest wheat.
As of July 2, funds were sellers of 3,487 contracts of Chicago wheat bringing their net short position to 73,974 contracts, and were sellers of 6,031 contracts of KC wheat bringing that short position to 43,103 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday after yesterday’s sharp selloff and is likely getting most of its support from the wheat market, which is higher as well. Today’s price action is likely some correction after yesterday’s move lower as fundamentals have been mostly bearish.
While weather has been mostly favorable, Minnesota and Wisconsin are dealing with surplus topsoil moisture with continued rain in the forecast. For the eastern Corn Belt, tropical storm Beryl is bringing much needed rain that should linger this week.
Yesterday’s report showed the good to excellent rating in corn increasing by 1 point to 68% which compares to 55% at this time a year ago. 24% of the crop is silking, which compares to 11% last week and 18% last year, with 3% in the dough stage, which is above the 2% last year at this time.
Soybeans are lower at midday as they continue to slide with the September and November contracts making new contract lows. Export demand has been lacking, while domestic demand has been firm which has lent support to the August contract as processors look to buy cash soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating rising by one point to 68%, while the poor to very poor rating fell to 8%. Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio improved the most while Mississippi, North Carolina, and North Dakota declined.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today despite an improvement in crop ratings and the ongoing winter wheat harvest. Prices seem to be trying to find stability after the sharp selloff over the past month. Concerns that world supplies may be lower for 24/25 could add support.
In Europe, weather is causing production problems for the wheat crop, and Ukraine and Russia are expected to produce less than last year as well. Russia is still expected to dominate the global export market as they continue to offer the cheapest wheat.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat at 63% harvested, which compares to 54% a week ago and the average of 52%. Spring wheat saw an improvement in good to excellent ratings up to 75%, which compares to 72% last week and just 47% last year. 59% of the crop is headed which compares to 38% a week ago and the average of 60%.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday after last week’s light volume holiday trade saw prices end slightly higher for the week. Over the weekend, forecasts began to show remnants of hurricane Beryl headed to the eastern Corn Belt where they will improve chances of rain.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 135,636 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 50,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 84,836 metric tons is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that the good to excellent ratings for the corn crop will improve slightly thanks to the recent favorable weather.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower today due to the improved weather forecast that is also pressuring corn. Last week, prices moved higher on low volume due to the holiday, but those gains are being given back. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
The bullish story in the soy complex has been the improving crush margins that have fueled domestic demand for processors and have also triggered the bull spreading between the August front month and the November contracts as cash soybeans are in demand.
The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.
All three classes of wheat are trading lower today with KC wheat down the hardest followed by Chicago. There has been a combination of harvest pressure, improved estimated yields, and a better Russian crop than thought a month ago.
Ukraine has reportedly harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 and was harvested over 482,200 hectares of land according to the Agriculture Ministry. The country had only harvested 172,000 mt of wheat last year at this time.
Adding to the pressure, Russian wheat export FOB values are said to have fallen to $221 to $225 per mt. Also, with SovEcon recently increasing their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 80.7 to 84.1 mmt on better-than-expected yields, this could keep a lid on rising wheat futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.1 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 12.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 35.2 mb fell below the 37.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.150 bb.
Parts of the eastern Corn Belt received rain yesterday with more anticipated to fall into the beginning of next week. Temperatures are also expected to be about average over the next week or so. This may offer some resistance to the corn market.
Parts of the northern and western Midwest also received rain yesterday and many of these areas are already too wet. Reportedly, five of these states have flood advisories, including southern Illinois.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn crop is 63% harvested, which is near the average pace. Although, according to the International Grains Council, US corn FOB values are still a little bit cheaper versus both Argentina and Brazil.
The USDA reported an increase of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.2 mb fell below the 13.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
Both soybean oil and meal are trading higher at midday, offering a boost to soybean futures. August oil in particular has made another near term high and is trading at the highest level in about three months. According to the US Energy Department, 1.070 million pounds of soybean oil were used to produce biofuel in the month of April.
There continue to be rumors of a trade war between Indonesia and China. Reportedly, Indonesia will impose a 200% tariff that could lead to China looking at other sources for their vegetable oil imports. Along with declines to the rapeseed and sunflower seed crops in the EU and Black Sea, this could mean that China will import more US soybean oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 29.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.3 mb fell below the 15.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 800 mb.
US wheat is rebounding at midday, with double-digit gains so far across all three US futures classes. Support is coming from Paris milling wheat futures which are also trading higher, and the US Dollar Index which is down this morning. Additionally, the US Dollar Index has broken through support this morning at the 40 and 50-day moving averages, which may indicate more downside (this would be bullish for wheat).
On a bearish note, Russian wheat export FOB values are said to have fallen to $221 to $225 per mt. And with Sov Econ recently increasing their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 80.7 to 84.1 mmt on better than expected yields, this could keep a lid on rising wheat futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
SEP ’24
405.5
-2.5
DEC ’24
419.25
-2
DEC ’25
454
-2.5
Soybeans
AUG ’24
1157.75
7.5
NOV ’24
1121.75
8.75
NOV ’25
1122.25
11
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24
581
0
DEC ’24
604
-0.75
JUL ’25
635
0.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24
589.5
-2.75
DEC ’24
606.25
-2.5
JUL ’25
628
-2
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24
624.25
-6.75
DEC ’24
643.25
-6
SEP ’25
678.75
-0.25
S&P 500
SEP ’24
5582
13.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’24
81.97
0.06
Gold
OCT ’24
2394.4
38
The eastern corn belt is expected to receive moderate rains and average temperatures over the next week or more. As these have been some of the drier areas, this may limit any upside rallies in corn futures. While the northwestern corn belt currently has flood warnings in many areas, the extended forecast looks drier for that region.
Managed funds remain heavily short the corn market at an estimated 310,000 contracts – without a shift in fundamental factors (including more severe weather) they won’t have reason to cover their positions. This is likely to keep pressure on the market for now.
Argentina’s grain exchanges, as well as private estimates, still project their crop between 45-47 mmt. This is well below the USDA’s 53 mmt figure. The same can be said for Brazil, in which CONAB is estimating a 114-115 mmt crop compared to the USDA at 122 mmt.
Grain markets will be closed tomorrow for the Fourth of July holiday, and will not re-open until 8:30 AM central time on Friday. Without any night trade on Thursday, Friday morning could potentially show more volatility if there is any shift in the weather or big news headlines.
The USDA reported private export sales of 110,100 mt of soybeans for delivery to the unknown. Of that total, 55,100 mt is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year, while 55,000 mt is for 24/25.
On a bearish note, US new crop soybean sales total only 1.2 mmt so far. This is well below the pace of the past several years, and so far Chinese demand has been lacking.
August soybean oil closed yesterday at the highest level since mid-April, and it is trading higher again at midday today, offering support to soybean futures. Higher veg oil and crude oil prices are supportive as well.
There are reports that Indonesia will impose a 200% tariff on Chinese goods, which may result in China reducing their purchases of Indonesian palm oil in retaliation. Currently that is just speculation, but if true, may lend support to US soybean oil.
September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange were up on Wednesday by 1.3%, around the equivalent of $14.91 per bushel. With US soybeans priced significantly lower, this in theory could lead to more Chinese purchases of US beans.
At midday Chicago wheat is neutral to mixed, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures are trading lower. While there will be some rains in both HRW and SRW wheat areas over the next few days, these should not significantly affect the winter wheat harvest. As a result, harvest pressure may continue to affect the market.
Drought is said to be expanding in the Black Sea region, with expected temperatures in the 90s and 100s that could affect yields of Russian spring wheat.
Sov Econ is reported to have raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. For reference the USDA is at 83 mmt, in line with most private estimates that fall around the 80 mmt area.
Paris milling wheat futures closed lower yesterday and are down again at midday today. The front-month September contract has broken below support at the 200-day moving average, which may keep US wheat under pressure today.
On a bullish note, the US Dollar Index is sharply lower. At the time of writing, it is down 0.55 at 105.17. This may take some weight off the shoulders of the wheat market, if its trend remains lower.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
SEP ’24
409.75
2.75
DEC ’24
422.75
2.25
DEC ’25
458.5
-0.25
Soybeans
AUG ’24
1153
7
NOV ’24
1118.25
7.25
NOV ’25
1118.25
4.25
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24
580.5
-9.75
DEC ’24
603.75
-8.75
JUL ’25
634.5
-7.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24
588.5
-11
DEC ’24
605.25
-10
JUL ’25
626.5
-8.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24
628
-4.25
DEC ’24
646.5
-4.25
SEP ’25
673
-0.5
S&P 500
SEP ’24
5533.75
0
Crude Oil
SEP ’24
82.46
0.14
Gold
OCT ’24
2360.5
-1.4
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that corn conditions fell 2% to 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 11% of the crop is silking, which is above the average of 6% and last year’s 7%.
The USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000 mt of corn sold to Columbia for the 23/24 marketing year.
Heavy rains again fell in the northwestern Midwest, causing more issues in areas that have already experienced extensive flooding. The eastern corn belt is also anticipating modest rains over the next few days.
Ukraine’s export year just ended in June. According to their ag minister, their corn exports totaled 29.4 mmt, which is 3.4 mmt above the USDA’s estimate.
US corn basis has been firm, and one potential reason is because of the amount of corn in farmers hands. As of June 1, on-farm corn stocks totaled 3.03 bb, which is 37% above last year and the highest since 1988.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that soybean conditions held steady at 67% good to excellent, with 20% of the crop blooming, which is above the average of 15% but in line with last year. Additionally, 3% is setting pods versus 2% average and 3% last year.
August soybean oil gained 1.96 cents yesterday, which is the biggest single day gain for the year so far. This was a result of the US Energy Department’s report that said in April, renewable diesel plant capacity increased to more than 4.1 billion gallons per year.
Census crush data showed that soybean crush for the month of May totaled 192 mb which is up 2.7 mb from a year ago. That was at the lower end of expectations, but still a record for May. Additionally, cumulative crush for the marketing year so far is up 3.5% from last year which is in line with the USDA forecast.
Offering bullish support today is the fact that the US ag attaché in Brazil lowered their estimate of their soybean crop to 150 mmt. This is down 3 mmt from the USDA’s June estimate.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions slipped by 1% to 51% good to excellent, with 54% of the crop harvested — well above the 39% average and last year’s 33% pace. Meanwhile, spring wheat conditions improved by 1% to 72% good to excellent, with 38% of the crop headed, slightly below the average of 37% and last year’s 45%.
After a strong close yesterday, all three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday. This could be the result of profit taking as well as pressure from lower Matif wheat futures this morning.
Early season estimates of Russian wheat crop production were around 94 mmt. Since that time, analysts have lowered their projections, with most now ranging from 79-83 mmt. Additionally, Sov Econ lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports to 46.1 mmt vs the 48 mmt figure the USDA is using.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
SEP ’24
406
-1.5
DEC ’24
419.75
-1
DEC ’25
458.25
2.75
Soybeans
AUG ’24
1140.5
7
NOV ’24
1105
1
NOV ’25
1107.75
6.25
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24
587.75
14.25
DEC ’24
610.75
13.75
JUL ’25
639.5
11.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24
596
9.75
DEC ’24
612
8.75
JUL ’25
631.5
9
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24
629.5
16.5
DEC ’24
647.5
15
SEP ’25
661.75
0
S&P 500
SEP ’24
5518
-3.5
Crude Oil
SEP ’24
81.7
1.06
Gold
OCT ’24
2361.4
-1.1
Friday’s USDA estimate of planted corn acreage came in at 91.5 million, above both the average trade guess and the higher end of estimates. While this is bearish, the number of harvested acres may be what is important down the road, especially given the flood damage in the northwestern Midwest.
The USDA is estimating Brazilian corn production at 122.0 mmt, still well above both CONAB and the International Grains Council which range from 114.1 to 115.4 mmt on their estimates.
CFTC data on Friday indicated that managed funds, as of June 25, increased their net short position in corn from 209,334 to 296,251 contracts. This continues to add weight to the shoulders of the corn market.
Argentina’s corn harvest is said to be 55% done. And due to the leafhopper plague, they experienced this season, some analysts are looking for a crop that is 4-6 mmt below the USDA estimate of 53 mmt.
On Monday, September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange were up a little bit, around the equivalent of $14.60 per bushel. With US soybeans currently so cheap, there may be more purchases made by China, despite the fact that they usually source from Brazil at this time of year.
Soybean harvest in Argentina is just about finished, which may offer some pressure to the soybean meal market. The August contract and beyond continue to be in a big picture downtrend.
According to Friday’s CFTC data, managed funds as of June 25 increased their net short position in soybeans from 74,0302 to 111,179 contracts. Like corn, this is pressuring the soybean market.
Palm oil is up for the fourth session in a row, and crude oil is higher today as well. Both of these are giving a boost to soybean oil futures this morning.
Although it is early in the season, US wheat export sales are up 45% compared to last year. This may provide some bullish support to the wheat market.
Despite a decline in planted wheat acreage on Friday’s report, harvested acres were up by about 800,000. This is somewhat bearish and may limit upside potential for wheat.
Winter wheat harvest may see some delays this week due to more rain across the central US and potential severe weather. Additionally, the southwestern US plains could see temperatures over 100 degrees this week.
Sov Econ reportedly decreased their projection of Russian wheat exports for the 24/25 season by 1.7 mmt to 46.1 mmt. For reference the USDA is using a figure of 48 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
