This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show corn planting at about 70% complete, which is slightly behind the five year average of 75%.
The seven day forecast is wet for much of the US corn belt. This may further hamper planting efforts and begins to raise concern about the portion of the crop that could end up pollinating during a less than optimal timeframe. An estimated 10-12 million corn acres could be planted beyond May 25.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop unchanged at 46.5 mmt, still about 6.5 mmt below the last USDA projection.
The soybean losses in southern Brazil are providing support to US futures as well as world vegetable oil prices. Additionally, there is concern about the flooding impact on logistics and shipping out of the Rio Grande port.
US soybean planting progress is expected to reach about 45-47% complete on this afternoon’s crop progress report.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop production unchanged at 50.5 mmt.
Brazilian soybean premiums are increasing, narrowing the gap to make the US more competitive. So far China has not purchased any US new crop soybeans.
Wheat is trading sharply higher at midday, potentially due to the extended forecast for Russia and Ukraine, which looks to remain mostly dry. The US southern plains may be drier than normal too.
According to APK-Inform, recent frosts in Ukraine have also been an issue, and may have reduced wheat yields by as much as 20-30%.
An estimate by StoneX suggests that western Australia’s wheat crop may reach around 4.5 mmt this year, significantly lower than the usual 10 mmt output from the region. Despite this, Australia’s total wheat production is expected to increase by 11%, reaching 29.3 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today and has slipped from its earlier morning highs which saw futures up as much as 4 cents. If this price action continues, corn would close lower for the fourth consecutive day and would post a weekly loss of over 10 cents, but futures, so far, have found support at the 100-day moving average.
Nutrien has stated that they expect US corn acreage to be lower than the USDA’s estimate of 90 million acres and are expecting a number closer to 87 million acres as they see a shift from corn to soybeans and cotton.
In France, corn plantings are estimated at 72% complete which is up from 54% the previous week but still down from the 5-year average of 91% for this time of year.
Soybeans are trading higher near midday but like corn, have slipped from their earlier morning highs. Soybean meal has reversed lower while soybean oil remains higher. While some rains are still falling in the eastern Corn Belt, planting progress seems to have improved.
In Brazil, the flooded state of Rio Grande do Sul has reportedly harvested 85% of its planted soybean area which is up from 78% last week. Progress remains slow as some areas are still flooded, and there are reports that some food silos have been heavily damaged as well due to the water.
There are concerns in the bean complex over the recent tariffs imposed by the US on China that may cause the country to import fewer soybeans than they were. So far, China has purchased no new crop soybeans from the US.
All three wheat classes have reversed lower from this morning as the grain complex in general weakens. Prices have steadily slipped since the year’s highs were posted on Wednesday, and now futures are situated for a slight loss on the week.
Russia has said that the country has lost 830,000 hectares or over 20 million acres of sowing due to the frosts. This represents about 1% of the total growing area. These weather issues in Russia have likely been responsible for the recent rally.
Ukrainian exports of grain have increased by 0.5% year over year for this season at 44.2 mmt and 16.6 mmt of that amount being wheat. This is a 10% increase year over year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today following poor export sales, and the July contract is trading back down at the 100-day moving average and has fallen over 18 cents since Tuesday’s high. There are rains expected over the next 10 days, but planting progress has improved in some areas.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 29.2 mb of corn sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 5.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 17% from last week and 14% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 37.5 mb were below the 40.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 2.150 billion bushels in 23/24. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
Soybeans are lower today and have received pressure from both a poor export sales report today as well as a disappointing NOPA crush report yesterday, which saw crush significantly below average trade estimates. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher today.
Today’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.
Wheat is mixed today with Chicago trading lower but KC and Minneapolis wheat slightly higher. Wheat is performing better than both corn and soybeans today as trade worries about Russian production and the recent frosts.
Today’s export sales report was a bit more friendly for wheat, showing an increase of 2.9 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 11.2 mb for 24/25. This was up 91% from the previous week and up significantly from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 16.5 mb were just above the 16.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 720 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and South Korea.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has backed off from its earlier morning highs and is now trading slightly lower despite a wet 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt that could cause further planting delays.
Today’s CPI report said that the consumer price index rose by 0.3% last month after increasing by 0.4% in both February and March. While inflation increased, it rose by less than expected. The stock market reacted favorably, and the dollar index fell.
This morning, forecasts are pointing to three larger rain systems that are expected to move through the Corn Belt over the next 10 days. Corn plantings are already 11% behind a year ago at this time.
Soybeans are trading higher today but along with corn and wheat have slipped from this morning’s highs. Planting delays remain a concern, and both soybean meal and oil are currently higher and supporting soybean futures.
Yesterday, news of new tariffs on Chinese goods such as computer chips, minerals, and EV’s was released. This caused concerns over retaliation from China in the way of fewer imports of US soybeans, and there was disappointment that used cooking oil was not included in the tariffs.
This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 metric tons are for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 60,000 are for the 24/25 marketing year.
Wheat is mixed at midday with the Chicago and KC contracts mostly higher but Minneapolis slightly lower. Futures are down about 15 – 20 cents from their earlier morning highs. July Chicago wheat remains well above its 200-day moving average and made a new high for the year today.
SovEcon has lowered its estimate for the 2024 Russian wheat crop to 85.7 mmt citing losses from unseasonable frost and also reporting that about 1 million of all crops may need to be replanted. This new estimate compares to the previous one of 89.6 mmt.
Yesterday was the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRW Wheat Tour, and they estimated an average of 49.9 bpa, which would be the highest yield in over 10 years.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday with the majority of losses in the front months and new crop only down around a cent. Both July and December futures remain over their 100-day moving averages and are in an upwards trend.
Yesterday, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed that 49% of the corn crop has been planted which was exactly within the average trade guesses. This compares to 36% last week, 60% a year ago, and the 5-year average of 54%, so it is clear that rains have caused significant delays.
This morning, the USDA reported that 405,000 metric tons of corn were sold to Mexico.
Brazil’s CONAB has revised its estimate for the 23/24 corn crop higher to 111.6 mmt which remains sharply lower than the USDA’s guess on Friday of 122.0 mmt, thought the gap has narrowed slightly.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are being pulled down by sharply lower soybean oil. July futures are sitting right at the 100-day moving average and November futures are above the 100-day. Soybean meal is higher by 1.50% and is helping to offset some of the losses in bean oil.
Soybean oil had previously been rallying due to rumors that the administration would impose tariffs on used Chinese cooking oil, but this morning the tariffs that were announced did not include it but rather focused on computer chips, critical minerals, and EV’s.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 35% of the soybean crop has been planted which was lower than the average trade guess of 39%. This compares to 25% last week, 45% a year ago, and the 5-year average of 34%. 16% of the crop is reportedly emerged which compares to 9% last week.
All three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday, likely on profit taking after the recent strong rally.
The USDA kept winter wheat condition unchanged at 50% good to excellent in yesterday’s crop progress report. Additionally, they said that 61% of the spring wheat crop is planted, which compares to 35% last year and 48% average.
There are still weather concerns globally that may affect wheat, including the freezing temperatures in Russia that may damage their crops. Dryness also persists in the Black Sea region, adding to concerns. Additionally, western Europe is seeing too much wet weather that is degrading their wheat conditions.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher near midday with support from Friday’s USDA report and planting delays. July futures are trading at the highest levels since the beginning of January and are 11 cents away from the 200-day moving average which is at 484.
In Argentina, the leaf hopper bugs, spreading disease throughout the corn crop, have reportedly done over 2 billion dollars’ worth of damage. New production estimates have lowered guesses to 47.5 mmt, which would be down a fifth from the original production estimate of 59 mmt.
Friday’s USDA report showed old crop ending stocks falling by 100 mb due to increases in export and ethanol demand. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 2.102 billion bushels using a baseline yield of 181.0 bpa, and both Argentine and Brazilian production were lowered slightly.
Soybeans are trading higher today with the majority of gains in the new crop months. November futures have a gap on their chart at 1244 ½ which is around 33 cents away at this point. Soybean meal is unchanged, and soybean oil is higher, offering support to soybeans.
Friday’s WASDE report was basically neutral for soybeans, but they got a boost from sharply higher soybean oil and friendly numbers for corn and wheat. Once again, the USDA was very conservative with adjusting Brazilian production and only lowered it by 1 mmt. CONAB maintains a much lower estimate that will be updated today.
The flooding in Brazil has severely damaged the soybeans in the southern regions that were unable to be harvested, and StoneX has reduced their estimate for Brazilian production by 3 mmt to 147.8 mmt which is well below the USDA’s estimate of 154 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading sharply higher again today and have reached their highest prices since August of last year as frosts in Russia potentially damage the wheat crop and traders react to Friday’s friendly USDA report.
Friday’s WASDE report showed that old crop ending stocks fell slightly due to an increase in exports, that new crop stocks would be smaller than expected due to lower acreage, and lower world ending stocks due to higher demand and trade which offset the higher production estimate.
In India, wheat stocks in government warehouses are reportedly at a 16-year low after making record domestic sales in order to lower local prices. This creates the possibility that India may need to import wheat at some point which it rarely needs to do.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday ahead of today’s WASDE report. July corn is trading back above its 100-day moving average after three consecutively lower closes. The 6 to 10-day forecast features more rain in the central and eastern Corn Belt which could further delay planting.
Expectations for today’s USDA report are that old crop stocks will fall slightly to 2.098 billion bushels, that new crop production will be pegged at 14.9 bb which would be down from last year, and that South American production will be revised lower.
Chinese imports of corn are expected to fall by one-third in the coming year as the country increases planted acreage in an attempt to decrease its reliance on other countries for agricultural products.
Soybeans are mixed at midday with the front months trading slightly higher but new crop months unchanged to lower. Soybean meal is slightly lower, while soybean oil is recovering from recent losses and is higher. As in corn, soybean plantings have been delayed due to recent rains.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report are calling for old crop ending stocks to be mostly unchanged at 341 mb, while new crop production estimates are around 4.43 billion bushels which would be up from last year. As in corn, South American production is expected to be lowered.
In Brazil, there remain large issues regarding the soybeans which have not been harvested and remain in the fields due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The extent of the damage is yet unknown, but that state is a key producer and exporter of soybeans and could impact exports to Argentina.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today led by Chicago wheat. July Chicago futures are well above the 200-day moving average and have rallied by one dollar since last month’s low on the 18th. Reports of frost hitting Russia’s wheat crop have been supportive.
Estimates for today’s report are expected to show that old crop ending stocks will be lowered by around 11 mb to 689 mb, and that all new crop wheat production will be around 1.895 bb which would be higher than last year.
In Australia, conditions have been dry which is raising concerns over wheat production. There are concerns over soil moisture levels, and one analyst group cut the forecast planted area to 4.7 million hectares.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 35.0 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 48.5 mb exceeded the 37.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout is pegged at 2.098 bb, compared to 2.122 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 corn are expected to come in at 315.3 mmt, down from 318.3 in April.
US 24/25 corn production is anticipated at 14.897 bb vs 15.342 in 22/23. In addition, the trade is looking for 23/24 Argentina corn production to drop from 55.0 to 52.0 mmt, with Brazil production falling from 124 to 122.5 mmt.
The US weather forecast still appears to show that planting progress will be slow for the next 10 days or so. This should provide some support to corn futures, along with the fact that the December contract is holding support above the 100-day moving average so far today.
Ethanol production dropped 2% from the previous week and was also under 1 million barrels per day for the fourth consecutive week. But with the lower production, stocks have fallen to the lowest level since late last year.
The USDA reported an increase of 15.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.2 mb fell below the 12.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout is pegged at 341 mb, slightly above 340 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 soybeans are expected to come in at 112.4 mmt, down from 114.2 in April.
US 24/25 soybean production is anticipated at 4.430 bb vs 4.165 in 22/23. In addition, the trade is looking for 23/24 Argentina soybean production to drop from 50.0 to 49.5 mmt, with Brazil production falling from 155.0 to 152.6 mmt.
Rains are expected to return to Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend continuing to cause worries about more flooding and potential crop loss.
The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their forecast of Argentina’s soybean production unchanged at 50 mmt, which is in line with the USDA.
The USDA reported an increase of only 1.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 12.4 mb fell below the 13.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is pegged at 689 mb, compared to 698 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 wheat are expected to come in at 258.1 mmt, down from 258.3 in April.
US 24/25 all wheat production is anticipated at 1.889 bb vs 1.812 in 22/23. Of that total, winter wheat in particular is expected at 1.305 bb vs 1.248.
Egypt purchased a total of 420,000 mt of wheat on their tender yesterday. Of that total 60,000 mt came from Romania. The remaining 360,000 mt were sourced from Russia, reportedly at $255 per mt FOB.
Wheat is showing some strength at midday, likely due to talks that the frost damage in parts of Russia may have caused more damage to the winter wheat crop than initially anticipated.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are consolidating after the recent rally to a lower trade at midday. Funds still hold a hefty net short position, but they might be waiting for more friendly news before covering additional positions.
The forecast over the next week or so in the US has rains favoring the eastern Corn Belt. The extended outlook remains somewhat wet, which may further delay planting progress domestically.
While the trade is expecting the USDA to reduce their estimate of Brazil’s corn crop on Friday, there is still quite a big discrepancy between their last estimate at 124 mmt, which is still well above CONAB at 111 mmt.
Soybeans and soybean meal are trading lower this morning, despite continued concerns about the crop in Rio Grande do Sul and the impacts of flooding there. Logistics issues are also a concern, including getting the soybeans to the Rio Grande export terminal.
The USDA has been slow to lower their South American soybean production estimates. But with the weather issues in southern Brazil, they may finally make reductions on Friday’s report; the trade is looking for a 2.5 mmt drop in production.
Although soybean planting in the US was ahead of the average pace as of Monday’s data, the recent storms across the nation’s midsection are likely to cause delays. This may result in planting pace falling behind on next Monday’s Crop Progress report.
There are chances for more rain in the US HRW wheat areas, which are still needed in many areas to alleviate dryness, especially in the southwestern Plains.
Record cold temperatures are forecasted for parts of Russia and Ukraine later this week. However, damage to the wheat crop is not expected to be a major issue, as the market appears unconcerned at this point.
Areas of France are still seeing too much rain and wet weather, which may lead to further cuts to their wheat crop ratings. Currently, the crop condition is rated about 30% below where it was a year ago.
The heavy rains in southern Brazil are not only affecting soybeans – winter wheat planting is also being delayed.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to the USDA, corn planting progress has reached 36%, up from 27% last week but lagging behind last year’s 42% and the average of 39%.
December corn has traded higher for four consecutive sessions. A higher close today would mark the fifth, but upside resistance is nearing the 200-day moving average around the 495 area.
A hot and dry pattern in Mato Grosso, Brazil may be impacting their safrinha corn crop production, with a leafhopper plague said to be affecting the Argentine corn crop as well. Both of these factors should provide support to US futures.
According to the USDA, soybean planting progress has reached 25%, up from 18% last week. While this lags behind last year’s 30%, it remains above the average pace of 21%.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday, but not showing as much follow through strength as yesterday. This may be attributed to profit taking and farmer selling after futures have reached the highest levels since January.
The flooding in Rio Grande Do Sul is not only impacting soybean harvest but also affecting crush in South America. Typically, Argentina would import soybeans from southern Brazil for crushing. However, this year, the reduced or potentially unavailable supply may disrupt this usual practice.
The USDA reported that the winter wheat crop improved slightly to 50% rated good to excellent, up 1% from last week. Additionally, spring wheat planting progress surged to 47%, compared to 34% last week. This figure surpasses last year’s 21% and the average of 31%.
Kansas City wheat futures are lower at midday, likely due to recent rains that went through some of the drier areas of the southwestern US Plains. Minneapolis futures are also lower, with the planting progress data being well ahead of average.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values are firming, with an increase of $4 to $216 per mt FOB last week. Although Black Sea wheat is still the world’s cheapest, if this pattern continues it could make US exports more competitive.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
