Corn has reversed from its earlier morning lows and is now trading higher across the board with the front months leading the way higher despite lower wheat prices. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that planting is ahead of the 5-year average, but historically, planting is at a relatively slow pace.
Highlights from yesterday’s USDA report show that planting is 91% for corn which is up from 83% a week ago, emergence is at 74%, and the first good to excellent rating received this year is pegged at 75%.
In Brazil, StoneX has cut its forecast for the 2024 second corn crop by 3.9% to 93.5 mmt. The second crop corn typically totals about 75% of Brazil’s total corn production, and the cut is due to dry weather.
Soybeans are mixed at midday but have also reversed from earlier lows along with corn. The two front months are trading higher while deferred contracts are slightly lower. Soybean oil is also mixed with slight gains in the front months, and soybean meal is trading lower.
Highlights from yesterday’s USDA report show soybeans plantings at 78% complete which compares to 68% a week ago, and 55% of the crop is emerged which compares to 39% a week ago. The first crop conditions will likely be released this coming Monday.
US soybean crushing for April was seen at 178 million bushels which was down 4.9% from the same time last year. Lower crush margins have been a bearish factor.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with Chicago wheat leading the way lower, and this would be the fifth consecutively lower close if prices remain lower. Crop progress was relatively bearish for spring wheat with good crop conditions and planting nearly complete.
In winter wheat, the USDA said that 49% of the crop has been rated good to excellent, which is up a point from last week and compares to 36% a year ago. 83% is headed which compares to the average of 78%, and 6% is harvested which compares to the average of 3% for this time.
In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday after trading either side of unchanged as it follows the volatility in wheat. The July contract has now broken through support at $4.45 and may challenge the April low of $4.35 3/4.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report which will also include the season’s first crop ratings. Weather has been mixed with heavy rainfall in parts of the country which could cause delays for the crop yet to be planted.
In Argentina, below normal precipitation is forecast over the next three months which will be beneficial for both the corn and soybean harvests. Argentina is now around 70% complete with its corn harvest.
Soybeans are trading lower today with heavy pressure from soybean oil which is down 2.30% in the July contract, and soybean meal is not helping either with small losses. The expectation is that today’s Crop Progress Report will show that soybean planting is advancing at a good clip.
Last week, the USDA pegged soybean planting progress at 68% which was 5 points above the average pace. Expectations for today’s report are between 84 and 85% completion as of this past Sunday. There is also discussion about how many acres will go to prevent plant with rain still in the forecast.
Soybean crush in the month of April has been estimated at 175.5 million bushels as analyst expect that the USDA will peg crush at a 7-month low. If realized, this would be down 13.9% from the 203.7 mb crushed in March and down 6.1% from April 2023.
Wheat is currently lower at midday but has been very volatile in today’s session with Chicago wheat at one point 19 cents higher in July before likely running into some selling pressure. All three classes are now trading lower on the day. Dry conditions in the Black Sea region continue to be a bullish factor.
In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.
Unlike the rest of the world, Australia is faring well with its weather, and as a result may see its wheat crop rise by as much as 5.7% thanks to the rains. Their total production is estimated at 27.4 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mostly lower at midday as it slipped from its earlier morning highs, as selling pressure continues. Open interest has risen by about 50,000 contracts over the past three trading sessions, which could indicate that funds are reentering their short positions.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 31.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 in the week ending May 23 and an increase of 7.4 mb for 24/25. This was in the middle of the range of trade expectations and puts commitments up 31% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 41.1 million bushels were above the 39.0 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
Soybeans are trading higher today but along with corn, prices have slipped from overnight highs. Soybean meal is trading higher, while soybean oil is slightly lower but has been mostly rangebound over the past two weeks. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported an increase in export sales totaling 12.1 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was also within trade expectations but continues the trend of poor export sales. Sales commitments are now down 15% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 million bushels were below the 12.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.
All three wheat classes are now trading lower after reversing from overnight highs with Chicago wheat now leading the way lower. Prices are now over 30 cents off Tuesday’s highs and the selloff is likely due to farmer selling and technicals cooling off after being overbought.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported net cancellations totaling 2.2 million bushels of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.0 mb for 24/25. Total sales were on the low end of trade estimates for old crop but above trade estimates for new crop.
Last week’s export shipments of 13.0 mb were below the 20.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is slightly lower at midday in relatively quiet trade. The deferred months are losing more than the front months, and both July and December corn are near support around their 100-day moving averages. Planting progress has shown that the US is on pace with the 5-year average which is pressuring prices.
According to Reuters, little to no ethanol will qualify for the US sustainable fuel aviation subsidies. Export demand has already been sluggish, but there was optimism over the prospect of increased domestic demand.
Weather was wet last week, and there are more systems forecast to run through the Midwest next week as well. It will be important to watch the planting conditions for the crop yet to be planted, and the first look at crop conditions that will be released next week.
Soybeans have traded either side of unchanged today but are currently trading mixed, despite lower soybean meal and soybean oil. Planting pace is now at 68% for soybeans, which is 5 points above the 5-year average.
Next month on the 12th, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and if exports don’t pick up significantly, yearly exports are expected to be cut by between 20 and 30 million bushels. So far, China has purchased no new crop US soybeans, and new crop sales are the lowest in 18 years.
According to Morgan Stanley, soybean losses in the flood plagued state of Rio Grande do Sul have apparently reached 5 mmt, and they are estimating total production at 145 mmt, well below the USDA’s guess.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. This may partially be a technical move after the wheat complex became overbought, scoring a new highs for the year on Tuesday in all three classes. Wheat conditions in the US are significantly better than last year, but the market is likely focusing on the condition of Russia’s crop.
The EU has agreed to increase the tariffs on Russian grain imports in order to lessen Russia’s revenues as well as to keep cheap Russian grain from lowering prices too much domestically.
In Russia, there are slight chances for scattered showers this week, but the recent dryness and frost has taken a toll on the wheat crop. Consultancy group IKAR along with SovEcon have both cut their production estimates between 78 and 80 mmt which compares to their earlier estimates of 93 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower for the second consecutive day as planting progress continues despite the recent wet conditions. July corn has been hovering around its 21-day moving average for over a week while December corn has done the same.
Yesterday’s Planting Progress report showed corn plantings at 83% completed which was right on par with the average trade guess, was up from 70% from last week, and compares to the 5-year average of 82%. Progress is now above the 5-year average which is likely pressuring futures. 58% of the crop is emerged which compares to 40% last week and the 5-year average of 58%.
Argentina is finally set to begin corn exports to China starting in July after striking an export agreement last year. Brazil is China’s number one supplier of corn, and this could make Argentina the second largest supplier.
Soybeans are trading lower again at midday with more pressure from soybean meal while soybean oil trades higher. Similar to corn, soybean plantings are further along than previously expected despite the rainfall and progress in South American harvest, both of which are pressuring prices.
Crop progress showed soybean plantings at 68% complete which compares to the trade guess of 67%, 52% last week, and the 5-year average of 63%. The crop is 39% emerged which compares to 26% last week and the 5-year average of 36%.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 13.74 million metric tons for the month of May versus 13.83 mmt expected the previous week. Soybean meal exports are expected to be slightly lower than anticipated.
Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago and Minneapolis both higher, and KC wheat lower but near unchanged. KC wheat is weaker despite a downgrade in winter wheat crop ratings.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat plantings at 88% complete which compares to 79% last week and the 5-year average of 81%. 61% of the crop is emerged which compares to 43% last week and the 5-year average of 52%.
Winter wheat is 77% headed which compares to 69% last week and the 5-year average of 69%. The good to excellent ratings were lowered by 1% to 48%, but still compares to last year’s rating of 34% at this time.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower at midday despite gains in the wheat complex and continued rainfall in the Midwest which is delaying planting progress and has caused flooding in parts of the eastern Corn Belt.
This morning, private exporters reported to the US Department of Agriculture export sales of 215,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 165,000 tons is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and the remaining 50,000 is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
The Brazilian corn crop is being revised lower due to recent heat and dryness. Consultancy Ag Rural is estimating Brazilian corn production at 118.4 mmt and some other firms closer to 112 mmt. The USDA’s last estimate is much higher at 122 mmt.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday with significant pressure from soybean meal with July meal currently down 2.50% while soybean oil trades higher. The move lower today comes after last week when soybeans reached their highest prices since January and soybean meal reached its highest prices of the year.
The Crop Progress Report will be released later today, and expectations are for soybean plantings to be 70% complete, which would be slightly above the 5-year average. Weather is forecast to be dry into Friday before more rains are expected.
Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop has been revised lower by Datagro citing a sharp drop in average yields. On Friday, the consultancy lowered its estimate to 147.57 mmt from a recent guess of 147.96. This is well below the USDA’s estimate and cites a 10.8% drop in national yields.
All three classes of wheat are trading higher at midday with KC leading the way up. Support is mainly coming from dry conditions and frost in Russia and the Black Sea region.
The Russian Grain Union president has reportedly said that between 3.7 to 4.9 million acres of wheat may have been damaged by the recent weather event, and IKAR has lowered wheat production estimates by 2 mmt to 81.5 mmt. The USDA’s last estimate was 88 mmt.
As of Tuesday, May 21, funds reportedly bought back 3,658 contracts of Chicago wheat which leaves them with a net short position of 24,593 contracts. Funds have bought back a significant amount of wheat contracts over the past few months.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’24
462.5
-1.5
DEC ’24
486
-0.5
DEC ’25
493.5
1.5
Soybeans
JUL ’24
1246.75
7.5
NOV ’24
1219
3
NOV ’25
1190.75
2
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24
692
-6
SEP ’24
712.25
-5.75
JUL ’25
740
-2
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24
714
3.25
SEP ’24
728.25
3.75
JUL ’25
745
-0.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24
746
2
SEP ’24
756.25
2
SEP ’25
746.25
1.25
S&P 500
JUN ’24
5324.75
39.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’24
77.24
0.37
Gold
AUG ’24
2359.7
0
Nearby corn is in a roughly 450 to 475 trading range. Support comes from potentially lower Ukraine and South American crops, and Mexico continuing to buy US corn. However, upside resistance comes from the fact that the US crop is getting planted with no major weather issues right now.
In central Brazil, dryness continues to be an issue for the safrinha corn crop, however there may be some scattered rains this weekend.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 28% of the Argentine corn crop is harvested and its good to excellent rating fell from 14% to 11%.
The International Grains Council has lowered their estimate of 23/24 global grain carryout by 3 mmt to 588 mmt; this is 14 mmt below 22/23. They also lowered their 24/25 carryout projection to 580 mmt.
Soybean meal is higher at midday, providing support to soybean futures. There may still be some concern about reduced crush in southern Brazil due to the recent flooding, and there is more rain in their forecast over the next couple of weeks.
Nearby soybeans in the middle of the 100- and 200-day moving averages, roughly 1206 to 1282 respectively. From a big picture perspective, soybeans have been grinding higher since the May 14 low, but are nearing technically overbought levels.
If it becomes too late to plant US corn in some areas due to weather delays, there is a chance that soybean acres could increase beyond the USDA estimate of 86.5 million. The next official acreage report will be on June 28.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 78% of the Argentine soybean crop is harvested.
Despite being the wrong time of year for a rally, funds are believed to have flipped from being net short Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures, to being net long. They are also long Matif wheat futures. This would seem to indicate that the specs are looking for more upside in the wheat market.
The forecasts for the Black Sea region and parts of western Europe should provide support to the wheat market. The former is too dry, while the latter is too wet. Here in the US, dryness in HRW wheat areas should also be supportive.
Early US HRW wheat yields are better than last year and may be better than expectations as well, and while SRW crop conditions are much better than their HRW counterpart, the SRW wheat crop may be smaller due to reduced area and too much rain in some regions (which may cause disease concerns).
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’24
465
3.75
DEC ’24
487.25
3.25
DEC ’25
493
2
Soybeans
JUL ’24
1242
-4.25
NOV ’24
1217.25
-1
NOV ’25
1191
-0.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24
693
0
SEP ’24
712.75
0
JUL ’25
743.25
-0.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24
703.75
4.25
SEP ’24
717.5
3.75
JUL ’25
741.5
0.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24
737.75
1.25
SEP ’24
746
-0.25
SEP ’25
747
-0.75
S&P 500
JUN ’24
5331.75
3.75
Crude Oil
JUL ’24
77.28
-0.29
Gold
AUG ’24
2368.7
-47
The USDA reported an increase of 35.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 12.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 57.0 mb surpassed the 40.1 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 2.150 bb.
According to private Brazilian form AgroConsult, the safrinha corn crop is estimated at 96.7 mmt, which would be down 10.5% from last year. This is said to be due to lower acreage and a yield drop of 7%.
Ethanol production increased to 300 million gallons last week, which is a six-week high. However, this is still below the pace needed to reach the USDA’s usage forecast of 5.45 bb.
The current weather forecast for Brazil shows some rains coming to the safrinha corn crop in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. These are some of the areas that have been drier, so this may delay harvest of that crop.
The USDA reported an increase of 10.3 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 9.5 mb fell below the 12.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 1.700 bb.
July soybeans took out the recent (May 7) high earlier today before fading back. This may indicate that the 1260 level is relatively strong resistance.
Traders are becoming more concerned with the slow pace of new crop export commitments for soybeans (and corn too). And the fact that China has yet to purchase, and new crop US soybeans is worrisome. The unconfirmed rumors that China has purchased US soybeans from the PNW continue to swirl, but these are said to be for summer delivery.
Both crude oil and palm oil are higher this morning, but despite this, soybean oil is under pressure and not finding much support.
The USDA reported an increase of 0.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 8.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.2 mb fell below the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 720 mb.
The second day of the Illinois wheat crop tour found an average yield of about 105 bpa, which is above last year’s 97 bpa. The USDA’s estimate of Illinois yield is currently 83 bpa, which would be down from last year’s record of 87 bpa.
Growing drought across southern Russia, eastern Ukraine, and western Kazakhstan is becoming more of a concern for wheat production in those regions. There is talk that Russian wheat yields may be down 17-20%.
Tunisia is reported to have purchased 100,000 mt of soft milling wheat in their tender, and Jordan will again be tendering for 120,000 mt of soft wheat. Their last tender fell through, as they cited prices being too high.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Crude oil is lower this morning, which may limit upside for grain futures, especially corn and soybeans due to their biofuel relationship.
Central Brazil, where conditions have on the drier side, is expected to receive some rain over the weekend. This should benefit this region, but rains and flooding continue to impact southern Brazil as well.
Storms impacted much of the central US over the past 24 hours, bringing heavy rains and in some cases, flash flooding and tornadoes. According to the seven-day forecast, there will potentially be more rains to come.
There continues to be talk that China has purchased US soybeans for July / August shipment, with reports ranging from two cargoes to possibly between six and eight cargoes. However, there were no flash sales announced by the USDA this morning, meaning that if the rumors are true, the sales have been under the daily reportable level of 100,000 mt.
Palm oil futures are closed for holiday, so there is no influence from that market today. But in general, palm oil prices are well below a year ago due to talk of increased production and lower export demand.
Brazil soybean premiums are on the rise, making US exports much more competitive. Back in January, Brazil soybean FOB values saw a roughly $2 discount to the US; that gap has now narrowed to just a few cents.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher this morning, which provided early support to the wheat market, but those earlier gains are fading. US futures have seen a two-sided trade today so far.
Rain did fall in some drier HRW areas including Colorado and western Kansas. But this was a double edged sword, as the storms also came with heavy winds and hail in some areas.
The Black Sea region’s forecast looks mostly dry for the next two weeks; the latter part of the forecast also turns hotter. This has some crop analysts predicting Russia’s wheat production will decline below 80 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that US corn is 70% planted, just below the average of 71%, and last year’s 76%. In addition, 40% of the crop is emerged.
The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Spain for the 23/24 marketing year in the amount of 110,000 mt. Additionally, there was a sale of 113,050 mt of corn to Mexico, with half for 23/24 and half for 24/25.
Rains this week are expected to be heaviest in the central Midwest – lighter amounts may fall in the western corn belt.
Due to weather issues this spring, there is talk that up to a million acres of US corn may be switched to soybeans or prevent plant.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that US soybeans are 52% planted, ahead of the average 49% pace, but below last year’s 61%. In addition, 26% of the crop is emerged.
There are rumors that China may have purchased 2 cargoes of soybeans from the US Pacific Northwest yesterday, for July and August delivery.
Soybeans may be under pressure this morning due to a marketing year low on yesterday’s export inspections at 6.8 mb. Global vegetable oil prices are also lower this morning, pressuring soybean oil.
More heavy rains and flooding are expected over the next week or so in Rio Grande do Sul, some of which may make its way north to Santa Catarina.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report said that winter wheat was rated 49% good to excellent, a 1% drop from the previous week; 69% of the crop is headed. In addition, 79% of the US spring wheat crop is planted, well above the 65% average, and 57% last year; 43% of that crop is emerged.
July Chicago wheat settled yesterday at the highest level since early August of 2023. With the recent rise in price, some technical indicators show wheat to have become overbought.
IKAR has reportedly lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production to 83.5 mmt from 86 mmt previously. For reference, the USDA’s estimate is 88 mmt. IKAR also lowered their Russian wheat export projection by 2 mmt to 45 mmt, whereas the USDA is estimating 52 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
