Corn is trading lower at midday, and the December contract has posted a new contract low as trade anticipates a bearish reaction to Monday’s WASDE report. Estimates are calling for an increase in yields, but whether or not changes in acreage are expected is up for debate.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show a decrease in South American corn production, but the USDA has held estimates above the country’s own exchanges’ estimates. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has maintained their estimate for Argentinian production at 46.5 mmt, and harvest is estimated at 96.3% complete.
Yesterday, the export sales report said that 19.1 mb of old crop and 9.8 mb of new crop corn were sold for export last week. Mexico was named the largest buyer of old crop corn. Last week’s export shipments of 51.3 mb were 15.3 mb more than needed to meet the USDA’s export estimates.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday after a slew of export sales were reported this morning. Trade is still expecting Monday’s WASDE report to hold higher yield estimates which could be bearish. Soybean meal is trading lower whole soybean oil is following crude oil higher.
This morning, the USDA reported multiple export sales. They reported that 132,000 mt of soybeans were sold to China for 24/25, 100,000 mt of soybean meal were sold to Colombia, and 212,000 mt of soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations.
In Argentina, workers at a soybean crush plant have extended their strike to a third day as a result of insufficient wages. Shipments have been delayed for the biggest soybean meal and oil exporter just as harvest is wrapping up.
Wheat is trading higher across the board at midday and has potentially put in a temporary bottom. Support has come from global weather issues and many countries making large tenders to buy wheat and shore up supplies.
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC reportedly purchased between 600,000 to 700,000 mt of milling wheat in an international tender, and Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries bought a total of 83,445 mt of food quality wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US in a regular tender.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 10.1 million bushels in wheat sales for 24/25 and 4.1 mb for 25/26. This was down 4% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales commitments are up 34% from a year ago.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday, with December futures breaking just below the 4-dollar mark. Today’s export sales were decent, but demand has been sluggish overall and does not lend well to the anticipation of a large crop incoming.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 19.1 million bushels of corn export sales for 23/24 and 9.8 mb for 24/25. This was up significantly from the previous week and up 32% from the previous 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 51.3 mb were well above the 36.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate and put export shipments up 33% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday, with the September contract falling below 10 dollars as the market anticipates a bearish WASDE report on Monday. US yields are expected to increase slightly, while South American production is projected to decline. Both soybean meal and oil are also trading lower today.
Today’s export sales report was ok with the USDA reporting an increase of 12.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 36.2 mb for 24/25. This was up 2% from last week and up 66% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 12.9 mb of soybeans were below the 15.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Germany.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. Before yesterday’s lower close, wheat had been on a winning streak with 5 consecutively higher closes. There is some anticipation of smaller new crop supplies with adverse weather in Europe and the Black Sea region.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 10.1 million bushels in wheat sales for 24/25 and 4.1 mb for 25/26. This was down 4% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales commitments are up 34% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 18.2 mb were above the 16.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 825 mb for 24/25. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Italy, and Panama.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday, but December futures have held above the 4-dollar level this week after dipping below it last week. Weather conditions are favorable, and the trade likely expects a bearish WASDE report on Monday, with an anticipated increase in yields.
Later today, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum report, and it is expected that ethanol production will be slightly lower this week after last week’s record production of 1.109 million bpd. With prices so low, domestic demand has been firm.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday the 12th are expecting the national corn yield to rise to 182.2 bpa which would compare to last month’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. Production is estimated at 151.124 mt, which would be slightly higher than last month’s 151 mmt.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday alongside corn but have recovered slightly from earlier morning lows. The trade expects higher soybean yields similar to corn, and weather remains bearish in the near term. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is following crude oil higher.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen an uptick in export demand. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday have the average soybean yield improving to 52.5 bpa which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to be higher as well from last month.
Wheat has turned around from earlier this morning and now all three classes are trading lower. The dollar has been recovering since Monday’s stock market set back which could be putting some pressure on the commodity.
The average trade guess for 24/25 US wheat ending stocks is 859 mb, which would be up slightly from last month’s USDA 856 mb projection. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt. All wheat production in the US is expected to increase from last month’s estimate.
In the US, rain is forecast to fall throughout the northern Plains, which should bring relief to the spring wheat crop. The EU and German wheat crops are under stress from too much rain, with the French wheat crop is expected to see yields fall 20% below the 5-year average.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mixed at midday after yesterday’s stock market crash may have brought buyers into the oversold grain markets, which ended the day higher. At this point, stocks are rebounding, which likely has shifted focus back to crop ratings and weather.
Corn prices are not significantly responding to yesterday’s Crop Progress report, in which the good to excellent rating slipped by one point to 67%. 88% of the crop is silking, compared to 77% last week and 46% of the crop is in the dough stage, compared to last week’s 30%. 7% of the crop is dented, versus the 5-year average of 5%.
Last week, StoneX raised their corn yield estimate, and now Ag Resource has increased their estimate for corn yields to 180.5 bpa, which would be a record. They are also estimating production at 14.883 billion bushels which would be below the last USDA estimate. This could likely be attributed to the wet conditions earlier this season.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday after yesterday’s recovery and Crop Progress report, which showed conditions improving despite weather which has been slightly drier this past week in some areas. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed soybean ratings improving by 1 point to 68% good to excellent despite the recent dryness. 59% of the crop is setting pods, compared to 44% last week, and 86% of the crop is blooming, versus 77% last week.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen export demand pick up. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
All three wheat classes are now trading higher after reversing from earlier morning lows, with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. Since last Friday when the stock market began to drop, the US Dollar fell sharply as well, which makes US wheat more competitive globally and may be giving prices some support.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings unchanged at 74% and the crop 6% harvested, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 9%. 97% of the spring wheat crop is headed. In winter wheat, 88% of the crop is harvested, compared to 82% last week and the 5-year average of 86%.
In the Black Sea region, heat, dryness, and in some areas, frost, is damaging the crop and has lead to lower production. The EU is expecting lower production as well, and between the two, anywhere from 20 to 24 mmt of wheat could be lost.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday and has come back significantly from the lows earlier this morning which saw December futures below 4 dollars. The stock market is trading significantly lower, and it is possible that some money from equities is flowing into grains.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds bought back 23,453 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 295,096 contracts. This is the third week in a row that they have bought contracts back, even though prices have moved lower.
US corn is now the cheapest on the global market and both export demand and domestic demand are running ahead of expectations. Unfortunately, this improved demand has not translated into higher prices.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday after reversing from the earlier morning lows, despite lower prices in both soybean meal and oil. Prices were down much more sharply this morning after the Japanese Nikkei fell by over 12% yesterday which was the biggest single day drop on record.
Weather forecasts are mixed with Illinois and Iowa having turned slightly drier over the next 7 days, but temperatures are expected to be cooler which should offset the lack of rain. The northwestern Plains continue to receive too much rain.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen export demand pick up. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds were sellers of 14,932 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 178,591 contracts.
Wheat began the day sharply lower across the board but has recovered and prices are now mixed. The US Dollar is sharply lower today which makes wheat more attractive for export.
In the Black Sea region, heat, dryness, and in some areas, frost, is damaging the crop and could lead to lower production. The EU is expecting lower production as well, and between the two, anywhere from 20 to 24 mmt of wheat could be lost.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 2,432 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 77,616 contracts. In KC wheat, they bought back 674 contracts which brings their net short position to 40,192 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Equity markets are sharply lower this morning, with the Dow down over 700 points at the time of writing. But grains are rebuffing this weakness with positive trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat.
The outlook for the next seven days has turned a bit drier for Illinois and Iowa, although it has rain in the forecast for some of the already wet areas of Minnesota.
The recent increase in Middle East tensions led to a rise in crude oil prices on Wednesday. However, all of those gains have been given up in subsequent trading. This weakness may limit the upside potential for grain futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
The extended weather outlook is a bit drier than it was earlier this week, and may be offering some support to soybeans this morning. However, soybean conditions remain historically high so August weather may need to be more extreme to cause a significant rally in beans.
Palm oil futures surged on Friday, and global rapeseed supplies are declining, which should support soybean oil prices. However, US soybean oil futures are down this morning, likely due to the lower crude oil market.
The US Dollar Index is seeing a huge drop this morning. At the time of writing it is down about 1.20 to 103.20. This is the lowest level since late March, and may be offering some support to wheat (and the grain complex) today.
Argentina is experiencing dry weather that may adversely affect their wheat crop. Reportedly in July, they experienced 30% less rainfall than normal. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentine wheat was rated just 31% good to excellent last week, down from 39% the week prior.
Russian wheat prices have been firming up a bit, potentially lending support to prices. However, their FOB export values are still the world’s cheapest at $223 per metric ton.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 6.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 28.0 mb of 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.8 mb fell below the 41.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.225 bb.
At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates untouched but did signal that there may be a rate cut in September. Nevertheless, equity markets are trading lower this morning which may be spilling some weakness over into the grain complex.
The US Dollar Index is rebounding at midday, currently up about 0.20 at 104.30, and could be adding pressure to the grain complex.
From a technical perspective, corn futures are back into oversold territory by some metrics. This could mean that a bottom is near. However, futures can become and remain oversold during a strong downtrend.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 23.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 20.8 mb exceeded the 16.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
The forecast continues to show good rain potential over the next week or so for the eastern Corn Belt. This should keep yield prospects high but will also put weight on the shoulders of the market.
After a strong day yesterday and a positive start to this session, crude oil futures have turned negative and has taken soybean oil along for the ride, which is weighing on soybean futures.
The USDA reported an increase of 10.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 16.7 mb slightly exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
The weather forecast for the US northern Plains is mostly dry for the next week. This is not beneficial to the spring wheat crop, but the market does not seem to be responding much, as Minneapolis futures are mixed this morning.
Though it has been reported that their prices have firmed up recently, Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export front.
After a strong close yesterday, Matif wheat futures are down this morning, despite the worst-looking French crop in several years. This weakness is spilling into the US market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
December corn tested the 400 area this morning before breaking below that level at midday, potentially adding some technical weakness to futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 104,572 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The 6-10 day outlook appears cooler and wetter, which should maintain prospects for record yields in the eastern Corn Belt, offering resistance to the grain markets. The radar also showed storms this morning in parts of Iowa and Illinois.
Today’s ethanol production data showed an increase to 1,109 thousand barrels per day from 1,095 last week, up 4% from a year ago and well above the pace necessary to meet the USDA’s corn usage forecast.
The killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders has raised tensions in the Middle East, causing crude oil prices to surge. This rise is supporting soybean oil prices, and in turn, providing some underlying support to soybeans.
US soybeans are said to be competitive on the global market, but so far China has been largely absent in terms of US new crop purchases. However, there were recent sales to unknown destinations, which could be China, and there is anticipation that China will step up their purchases in the fall.
Tomorrow’s census crush data is anticipated to show June crush at 184.8 mb versus 174.6 mb last year. Additionally, soybean oil stocks are expected to fall about 6% from last year to 20.76 billion pounds.
French wheat production is reportedly down by 15% to 28%. This morning, Paris milling wheat futures are up slightly, but not enough to support US wheat.
Canada continues to experience dry weather in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which may affect spring wheat. This dryness could also impact North Dakota and Montana.
The US Dollar Index is sharply lower this morning, possibly due to anticipation that the Fed will signal an interest rate decrease in September at today’s FOMC meeting. In theory, this should support grains, but wheat does not appear to be responding currently.
India’s domestic wheat prices are said to be increasing, raising optimism that they may soon eliminate their wheat import tariff.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Good rains across eastern Iowa and most of Illinois have put some pressure on the grain markets, keeping yield prospects high. Over the next week or so, rain will favor the central and eastern CornBelt.
On yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, corn conditions improved 1% to 68% good to excellent. Additionally, 77% of the crop is silking and 33% is in the dough stage.
Corn inspections were good on yesterday’s report at 41 mb. Total exports this year are up 34% – this is despite Chinese imports down about 38%.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report indicated that soybean conditions fell 1% to 67% good to excellent, which remains the highest rating since 2020. Additionally, 77% of the crop is blooming and 44% is setting pods.
Both soybean oil and meal are lower this morning, alongside the crude oil market. This is putting some pressure on soybean futures, which are currently leading the grain complex lower.
There were rumors yesterday that China may be interested in purchasing US soybeans for Oct / Nov delivery. However, there have not been any new confirmed sales at this time.
According to the Crop Progress report, winter wheat harvest pace is slowing a bit. It advanced 6% this past week to 82% complete, however that pace remains above both last year’s and the 5-year average.
Spring wheat crop conditions declined 3% to 74% good to excellent. This was perhaps a little more than the trade was expecting, but this is still the highest rated crop since 2018.
Adding pressure to the US wheat market, September Paris milling wheat futures have closed lower five sessions in a row, and this morning it has traded both sides of unchanged; today could potentially mark the sixth lower close.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The market anticipates a slight decline in the corn crop rating in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Despite this, overall US crop conditions remain favorable, with expectations for record yields this fall. This outlook continues to limit any potential upside for grain prices.
The weather projections are somewhat in opposition, with the European model still calling for hotter and drier conditions, but the American model is more cool and wet.
The FOMC meeting is this week, but the Fed is not expected to make any changes to interest rates this time. However, it is anticipated there will be rate cuts in September.
Shifting weather forecasts have soybeans under pressure this morning. While it still looks mostly warm and dry for southwestern areas, rains are moving through the central Midwest and the extended outlook calls for more showers.
November soybeans gapped lower by a half-cent on the opening last night and have put in new lows so far this session. Lower meal and oil are not helping the situation.
There have been recent sales of US new crop soybeans to unknown destinations. This is thought to be China buying, as US beans are more competitive at these lower levels.
After a lower start this morning, wheat is trying to claw its way back. At the time of writing, both Chicago and Kansas City futures are holding just above unchanged, despite Matif wheat being in the red.
The fact that last week’s spring wheat tour found record yields will likely continue to add pressure to the market, especially for Minneapolis futures.
On a positive note, with the fall in prices, US Gulf SRW wheat FOB offers are said to be the cheapest in the world, which may stir up some additional export business.
The French wheat harvest is 41% complete, and the crop conditions are at an eight-year low of just 50% good to excellent.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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