Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed corn conditions fell 2% from last week to 72% good to excellent. Additionally, 93% of the crop has emerged, compared to 95% a year ago and the 5-year average of 92%.
• Customs data from China showed that their May corn imports were just over 1 mmt, down 37% from a year ago. However, year to date imports have reached 10 mmt which is down less than half a percent.
• The weather forecast shows chances of rain for Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana next week, but coverage is not expected to be widespread. Heavier rains in the northwestern Corn Belt could bring localized flooding.
• Ag Rural has reported that Brazil’s safrinha corn crop harvest has reached 21% complete, which would be the quickest pace in 11 years.

• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions fell 2% from last week to 70% good to excellent. Additionally, 82% of the crop has emerged, compared to 90% a year ago and the 5-year average of 79%.
• NOPA crush data yesterday was better than expected. The trade was looking for May crush to come in at 178 mb, but it came in at a record 183.6 mb. Additionally, soybean oil stocks fell to 1.724 billion pounds, which was below expectations of 1.775 and suggests good demand – this is likely due to increased biofuel production.
• Despite palm oil futures down 1.15% on Tuesday, soybean oil is rallying, likely due to the lower than expected stocks number. Along with higher meal, this is helping soybean futures to rebound from yesterday’s selloff.

• Despite corn and soybeans attempting to rebound, all three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday. Increases to crop conditions, harvest pressure, and better than expected yields for the HRW crop so far are all bearish factors.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, 27% of the crop is harvested, well above 13% a year ago and the 5-year average of 14%.
• The Crop Progress report also indicated that spring wheat condition improved 4% from last week to 76% good to excellent. In addition, 95% of the crop has emerged, compared with 96% a year ago and 93% on average.
• Russian wheat FOB export values, according to IKAR, have fallen to $234 per mt. This is about $18 from the season high and comes despite recently declining estimates of their wheat production. This development adds pressure to the US export market and futures prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• There is a contrast in weather between the eastern and western corn belt. The eastern areas have temperatures in the mid-90s into this weekend, while areas of Nebraska, Minnesota, and western Iowa should be cooler. Additionally, those western areas are too wet, and have 3-5 more inches of rain forecast over the next week or so.
• According to Friday’s CFTC data, as of June 11, managed funds kept their net short corn position relatively unchanged at 212,279 contracts. This is in contrast to wheat and soybeans which saw their short positions grow.
• This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show a decline of 2%-3% in the good to excellent rating of the corn crop. Despite initial ratings being historically high, there are definitely trouble spots throughout the Midwest; some areas are too hot and dry, while others have had far too much rain.
• China’s Bureau of Statistics is expecting a bumper grain harvest in China, however, this is despite talk that there is drought and too much heat in the northern growing regions that may curb yields.

• Soybean futures are sharply lower at midday, and without a lot of fresh news to drive this, it may be a technical selloff. Soybean products are also trading lower, which is not helping soybean futures. There is no influence from palm oil today, as those markets are closed for holiday.
• NOPA crush data will be released at 11 AM central, with expectations for May crush to come in at 178 mb. This would break the record set last year at 177.9 mb.
• Despite last week’s announced sales of soybeans to China, they were for old crop. So far there have still been zero sales of US new crop soybeans to China, which is adding bearish pressure. With that said, there are rumors that China is looking for US offers for the August – September timeframe.

• Paris milling wheat futures posted another gap lower on charts this morning, with no signs of a turnaround (at the time of writing). This bearish influence is also pressuring the US wheat market.
• US HRW wheat harvest is expected to have reached 25%-27% complete as of Sunday, and will likely be  confirmed in this afternoon’s crop progress report. With that crop’s yields better than expected so far, harvest pressure is weighing on prices.
• On a bullish note, India may still need to import wheat, especially due to the fact that their monsoon rains are said to be 20% less than normal in terms of coverage. India’s domestic wheat prices are also said to have hit a seven month high, around the equivalent of $8.50 per bushel.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 17, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Outside markets may be putting some pressure on the grain complex, with crude oil trading a little lower, and the Dow down over 300 points as of this writing.
• Other than in some of the northwestern areas, the forecast remains hot and dry for the US Corn Belt over the next week or so.
• US corn export sales commitments are up 36% from last year, whereas the USDA is predicting a 29% increase. With Mexico facing drought, the higher than anticipated trend may continue for sales. US corn is also said to be competitive against Brazil.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn harvest is now 40.3% complete. Additionally, their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop is pegged at 46.5 mmt, well below the USDA at 53 mmt.

• According to NOAA, there is a 65% chance of La Nina developing during the July – September timeframe. If it does occur, it is expected to persist into the 24/25 winter. Additionally, this could result in poorer soybean yields down the road.
• November soybeans remain well below some important resistance levels, with that contract currently testing the 10-day moving average around 1157. The next upside resistance is the 100-day moving average, around the 1176 level.
• The past three sessions featured flash sales of old crop US soybeans totaling over 11 mb. China and unknown destinations were the recipients. Today that streak was broken, however, with no announcements from the USDA.

• Paris milling wheat futures closed below support at the 50-day moving average yesterday. So far today they are testing that level, which is now upside resistance.
• Harvest progress continues to be a limiting factor for the wheat market. So far, overall yields have been mixed, but are generally better than expected for the HRW crop in the southwestern US.
• Despite the potential for drought to increase in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s ag minister is estimating their wheat crop at 1.5 mmt above the USDA’s estimate on this week’s WASDE report.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina’s wheat crop at 21 mmt, vs the USDA’s lower projection of 17.5 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s corn production from 111.6 mmt to 114.1 mmt. However, this remains about 8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate on yesterday’s WASDE report.
• The USDA reported an increase of 41.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 49.2 mb exceeded the 40.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 23/24 export goal of 2.150 bb.
• December corn broke back above the 100-day moving average (472-1/4) today. It has closed below this moving average for the last two weeks, so this may be a sign of a bullish recovery. The next upside resistance is not far away however, with the 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages converged near the 475 to 476 area.
• Talk of worsening drought in Mexico could lead to them taking more corn from the US, despite the current dispute on GMO imports.

• CONAB slightly lowered their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production, from 147.78 mmt to 147.35 mmt. This is still about 6 mmt lower than the USDA’s estimate on yesterday’s WASDE report.
• The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.9 mb fell below the 13.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the 23/24 export goal of 1.700 bb.
• Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
• Soybean oil is trading lower this morning, despite reports that India’s palm oil imports increased by 11.6% in May, when compared with the month prior. This doesn’t appear to be affecting soybean futures much, however, as they are currently leading the grain complex higher.

• On yesterday’s monthly supply and demand report, the USA lowered world wheat production by 7.4 mmt, with 5 mmt of that being a reduction in Russia. There were also cuts to Ukrainian and EU production. This may provide longer-term support to the wheat market.
• The USDA reported an increase of 8.2 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 9.6 mb fell below the 15.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 24/25 export goal of 800 mb.
• Paris milling wheat futures are slightly higher at midday. With a chart gap above the market that may be filled over time, and support holding at the 50-day moving average so far, there may be room for prices to recover and give a boost to the US market. However, this may require more friendly news first. 
• In their estimate, Strategie Grains reduced the European Union soft wheat crop to 121.8 mmt, which was a reduction of 1.7 mmt from a month ago. This may also provide some bullish support to US wheat prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• This morning’s CPI data was better than expected, coming out unchanged from last month and versus expectations for a 0.1% increase. This has led to a decline in the US Dollar Index and rallying equity markets, which could provide some spillover support into commodities.
• The American and European weather models are somewhat divergent, with the European showing below normal precipitation and hotter temperatures for the eastern corn belt, while the American model shows more chances for rain in this region.
• Dry conditions in Brazil have been allowing the southern region to recover from last month’s historic flooding. Additionally, the warmer temperatures are allowing the safrinha crop to mature but are not favorable for the later planted corn that is still underdeveloped.

• The US is becoming more competitive with soybean exports, as the basis in Brazil continues to climb.
• Both palm oil and crude oil are higher this morning, offering support. However, soybean oil and soybean futures aren’t responding, with both trading slightly lower at midday.
• The USDA reported private export sales of 106,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
• China may have turned to the US to buy soybeans after the recent tax change in Brazil. Since the change was announced last Tuesday, Chinese importers have purchased 208,000 mt of US soybeans.

• Due to frosts in May, some are estimating that Russia may have lost 15-30% of their wheat crop. Now a warmer and drier forecast could have a further impact.
• After a strong rally yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning, so far failing to fill the chart gap from last week and offering weakness to the US market.
• Harvest pressure may be the limiting factor in the wheat market, as Monday’s crop progress report showed winter wheat harvest at 12% complete, double the average pace.
• Egypt tendered for wheat on Tuesday, with that being filled by Ukraine and the EU. Russian export values have been on the rise recently, which may have caused them to lose out on the business.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• According to the USDA, corn is 95% planted and 85% emerged. Additionally, 74% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 1% from last week, but up from 61% a year ago.
• The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout comes in at 1.984 bb versus 2.022 bb in May. For 24/25, the estimate is 2.048 bb versus 2.102 bb in May. Additionally, Argentina’s corn production is expected to be reduced to 51.2 mmt from 53.0 mmt last month, while Brazil’s corn production is also expected to be reduced to 121.0 mmt from 122.0 mmt last month.
• Temperatures over the next two weeks are expected to be above normal for much of the US corn belt. In addition, rains are expected to be less than normal, except for northwestern areas.

• According to the USDA, soybeans are 87% planted and 70% emerged. Additionally, 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent, compared with 59% a year ago.
• Private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year in a flash sale this morning.
• The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout comes in at 348 mb versus 340 mb in May. For 24/25 the estimate is 455 mb versus 445 mb in May. Argentina’s soybean production is also expected to be slightly reduced to 49.8 mmt from 50.0 mmt last month, while Brazil’s soybean production is expected to see a bigger reduction to 151.8 mmt from 154.0 mmt last month.

• According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop is rated 47% good to excellent, down 2% from last week, but above 38% last year. Additionally, 12% of the crop is harvested, which is double the average pace of 6%.
• The USDA reported that the spring wheat crop is 98% planted, 2% above the average pace. Additionally, 87% of the crop is emerged, and 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent. This is a 2% decline from last week but remains above the 60% rating a year ago.
• The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout comes in at 690 mb versus 688 mb in May. For 24/25 the estimate is 782 mb versus 766 in May.
• Chicago wheat is trading higher at midday after finding support. The July contract tested the 100 day moving average around 604 before rallying. Furthermore, wheat has become technically oversold after the recent slide, and may be due for a correction to the upside.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• According to the CFTC, managed funds added about 80,000 short contracts, bringing their net short in corn to 212,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
• The European weather model shows less than normal rainfall for the US corn belt over the next 10 days, excluding the northwestern areas.
• US corn futures may be finding some support from the rise in South American FOB values, with Brazil’s corn basis said to have increased 6-12 cents on Friday.
• Expectations for this afternoon’s crop progress report are for corn ratings to be historically high at around 75% good to excellent.

• According to the CFTC, managed funds added about 45,000 short contracts, bringing their net short in soybeans to 60,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.
• NOPA reportedly increased their estimate of April crush by 3 mb to 169.6 mb. This is said to have been done because of a reporting error with the initial data.
• Soybean oil is lower this morning, potentially from pressure in the palm oil market, which is down 1.5% on Monday. However, meal is higher, and this is being reflected in the mixed trade for soybean futures.
• Expectations for this afternoon’s crop progress report are for soybean ratings, like corn, to be historically high at 73% to 75% good to excellent.

• As of last Tuesday, managed funds added only 8,000 short contracts to their position in the wheat complex. Therefore, recent market weakness was not necessarily caused by speculative selling.
• According to APK Inform, they estimate that Ukraine’s total grain harvest will fall to 52.7 mmt, a reduction of 12%, driven by worsening drought in the eastern area.
• Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again this morning; if they have a lower close, it would be for the sixth consecutive session. This is offering weakness to the US market.
• World wheat values declined after news last week that Turkey had decided to cut off wheat imports through October 15. This may result in 2.5 mmt of wheat not being exported from Russia (to Turkey) which would normally occur in the June – October timeframe.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower today after breaking the 7-day string of losses yesterday. July futures have faced resistance at the 100-day moving average at 452, and the December contract also moved lower after touching its 100-day.
• Yesterday’s strength came from short covering by the funds who were estimated to buy back approximately 10,000 contracts after being heavy sellers the 7 previous days. It also came from good export sales numbers which were on the high end of expectations. Lower wheat today is likely dragging corn lower.
• Yesterday’s Export Sales report showed an increase of 46.5 mb of corn sales in 23/24 and an increase of 4.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher range of estimates, and last week’s export shipments of 58.6 mb were well above the 38.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate.

• Soybeans are trading lower today and are giving back most of yesterday’s gains as selling pressure resumes by the funds. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well, and the weakness comes despite a flash sale reported this morning.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This is only the second soybean flash sale reported to China so far this year.
• Part of yesterday’s strength in soybeans was related to potential changes in Brazil’s tax code that could make Brazilian exports more expensive and could boost US exports, but the tax code still needs to be approved by Congress in the next four months.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat continuing to lead the way lower. July Chicago wheat is now trading 95 cents below last week’s high as funds take advantage of the higher prices and farmer selling occurs.
• World wheat stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.6% in 24.25 totaling 306.8 mmt. There is potential for production to fall in the EU, Turkey, the UK, and Ukraine. On the other hand, the US, India, and Australia are expected to have above normal production.
• In Russia, the weather remains hot and dry which is taking a toll on the wheat crop there, and yesterday, SovEcon reduced their production estimate to 80.7 mmt while acknowledging that production could fall to under 80.0 mmt if conditions remain dry.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is finally trading higher today after posting seven consecutively lower closes with the funds likely adding over 50,000 short contracts during that timeframe. Today’s move could be due to some short covering by the funds, but there are also some prevent plant concerns in corn.
• Weather premium could be getting factored in as well, but it may be a bit early. The forecast for this month is mostly dry, but many fields need the dryness after such a wet spring. In addition, the second week of June is expected to be hot and wet, which could be beneficial to crops.
• As of May 30, the USDA reported an increase of 46.5 mb of corn export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 4.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher range of estimates, and last week’s export shipments of 58.6 mb were well above the 38.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Saudi Arabia.

• Soybeans are trading sharply higher today along with corn, and the July futures are pressing right up against the 100-day moving average which could be resistance at 1200. Support is mainly coming from soybean oil which is higher thanks to gains in palm oil. Soybean meal is slightly higher as well.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 7.0 mb of soybean sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower range of trade expectations and puts soybean sales down 15% from the previous year.
• Last week’s soybean export shipments of 14.3 mb were above the 12.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels in 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Turkey.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher today and are led by KC wheat despite poor export sales. The spread between December Chicago wheat and December corn has been at its highest level since the war began in Ukraine but has begun to narrow in the last week as wheat prices retreat.
• Today’s export sales report was disappointing for wheat with the USDA reporting net cancellations of 8.4 million bushels in 23/24 and an increase of 22.7 mb for 24/25.
• Last week’s export shipments of 16.5 mb were below the 28.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading near unchanged today after six consecutively lower closes and appears to have found some support at the 440 level in July and 460 level in December. Funds have been getting back into recently exited short positions and are estimated to have sold 41,500 contracts over the past five days.
• Later today, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum report, and a reduction in ethanol production is expected following last week’s increase of over 5%.
• In South America, weather is expected to intensify throughout the rest of the second crop corn development with warm temperatures forecast for Argentina, and hot and dry conditions for Brazil which could intensify the drought in the western Central region.

• Soybeans are trading mixed to higher after a series of lower closes. Support today is coming from soybean meal while soybean oil trades unchanged to lower. Funds have likely been selling soybeans along with corn and are estimated to have sold 27,250 contracts over the past five days.
• There have been some rumors that corn acres that have been too wet may switch to soybeans, but with prices of both corn and soybeans below many producers’ break evens, there is a chance that some will take Prevent Plant.
• In Brazil, the soybean harvest is virtually wrapped up, but on Tuesday, reports came out that estimated around 2.5 million metric tons of soybeans may have been lost due to the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The USDA’s last estimate of 154 mmt is likely too high.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower today with July Chicago wheat now down nearly a dollar from last week’s high as funds pile back into their short positions. Over the past five days, funds are estimated to have sold 30,000 contracts of wheat.
• In Australia, consultancy ABARES has forecast the 24/25 winter wheat crop production at 51.3 mmt which would be a 10% increase year over year if realized. This would be due to an increase in acres and yields and would be their 6th largest winter wheat crop.
• In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.