December corn broke to another new contract low, trading down to 385 ½ so far this session before climbing back slightly. A close below 390 today would look technically weak, despite already being technically oversold.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts both show cooler temperatures for the corn belt. Some storms may also roll into the northern Midwest this week, primarily in Wisconsin and South Dakota.
Last week’s Pro Farmer crop tour found an average corn yield potential of 181.1 bpa. This is about 2 bpa below the current USDA estimate but would still be a record yield.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn harvest is 98.7% complete; about 46 mmt of corn has been collected. The exchange is still estimating total harvest at 46.5 mmt.
Crude oil is up sharply this morning as more war premium is being factored in. Israel is said to have launched a preemptive strike against Hezbollah. This, along with higher palm oil, may be lending some support to soybean oil and soybeans.
Indonesia’s president-elect has proposed raising the biodiesel blend to 50% next year. Currently, the expectation is for an increase from 35% to 40% in January. If the blend is raised further, Indonesia’s palm oil usage could jump from 11 million metric tons to 18 million metric tons, which would be supportive of global vegetable oil markets.
Last week’s Pro Farmer crop tour found a record soybean yield potential of 54.9 bpa. This compares to the USDA estimate of 53.2 bpa.
Total US new crop soybean sales are still running behind the usual pace. However, demand may be picking up at these lower price levels. Last week there were announced sales to Mexico, China, and unknown destinations.
On Friday the US Dollar Index hit the lowest level in about 13 months. In theory this should be supportive to wheat prices, but wheat (and the grain complex as a whole) is under pressure this morning.
The Federal Reserve may issue a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, supported by dovish comments made during the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. This potential cut could further pressure the U.S. Dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive globally.
Paris milling wheat futures have reached a new contract low so far this session on the September contract at 189.50 (Euros per mt). Currently they are trading just a little bit above that level, but this continues to weigh on US values.
Managed funds bought back around 20,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, likely as a profit-taking move. Despite this, they remain net short about 53,000 Chicago contracts, along with short positions of approximately 35,000 contracts in Kansas City and 25,000 contracts in Minneapolis.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading near unchanged at midday in quiet trade which has been rangebound throughout the week. At this point, December corn is set to gain 3 cents on the week and is 5 ½ cents off its contract low. Since Monday, funds are estimated to have bought back 1,000 contracts of corn.
So far on the Pro Farmer crop tour, yield projections have come in slightly below the USDA’s estimates. In South Dakota, they estimated yields of 156.5 bpa, 183.3 in Ohio, 173.3 in Nebraska, 187.5 in Indiana, and 204.1 in Illinois. Yesterday afternoon, yields for Iowa were revealed at 192.79, and yields for Minnesota came in at 164.90 bpa.
Yesterday the USDA reported private export sales totaling 110,490 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year and a sale of 132,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
Soybeans are trading higher today in a reversal from yesterday’s selloff and have regained half of those losses in the November contract. For the week, November is set to gain 15 ½ cents, and funds are estimated to have bought back 4,000 contracts of soybeans since Monday. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
The crop tour has found solid soybean yield potential so far with pod counts in Iowa at 1,312.3 pods in a 3 by 3-foot square which compares to the 3-year average of 1,194.2. In Minnesota, counts of 1,036.6 were found which compares to the 3-year average of 1,037.7.
This morning the USDA reported another round of private soybean export sales totaling 120,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with Kansas City and Minneapolis leading the way down, with all three making new contract lows yesterday in the December contracts. US wheat futures have followed Paris milling wheat, which also made contract lows yesterday but rebounded slightly today.
Yesterday’s weekly Export Sales report showed an increase of 18.1 million bushels in wheat export sales for 24/25 with the top buyer being the Philippines with 116,000 metric tons. Following that was Mexico at 110,500 mt and Vietnam with 85.000 mt.
Overnight, Tunisia bought 75,000 metric tons of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia, while Japan bought 82,000 mt of wheat from the US and Canada.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday as the grain complex sees pressure from increased chances of rain in the nearby forecast and large potential yields being found in the Pro Farmer crop tour. This move lower has come despite two flash sales announced this morning and a solid export sales report.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 110,490 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year and a sale of 132,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s Export Sales report saw an increase of 4.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 50.8 mb for 24/25. This was slightly above the average trade guess. Last week’s export shipments of 45.5 mb were above the 37.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 2.250 bb. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
Soybeans are trading lower today and have given back gains from the last two days. November futures are now up only 7 cents on the week, and today’s pressure is likely due to solid pod counts being found in the crop tour as well as improved rain chances in the forecast. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 105,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Vietnam for the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s export sales report saw a decrease of 1.6 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 but an increase of 61.6 mb for 24/25 which was toward the higher end of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 15.5 mb were below the 17.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 bb. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today. Prices have been pressured by lower Paris milling wheat prices and from higher estimates for the Russian wheat crop.
Today’s Export Sales report showed an increase of 18.1 million bushels of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was slightly above the average trade estimate and was well above last week’s sales.
Last week’s export shipments of 17.3 million bushels were above the 16.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates of 825 mb for 24/25. Primary destinations were to Indonesia, Mexico, and Japan.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning but remains mostly rangebound with December finding support around 390 and resistance at the 4-dollar mark. The dry 12-day forecast is likely adding some support, but overall news is sparse.
The US is now the world’s cheapest offer for corn after basis levels in Brazil and Ukraine both rose significantly. US exports have improved as a result, and Monday’s Export Inspections report had corn inspections at 45.9 mb for last week.
Ahead of the EIA report, estimates for the weekly ethanol production survey suggest a decline in production to 1.066 million barrels per day, down from last week. The average stocks estimate is also slightly lower, at 23.339 million barrels compared to 23.354 million barrels a week ago.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher today, with the November contract now 22 cents above last week’s contract low. Support has come from a fresh wave of export sales reported this morning, along with strength in crude oil and both soy products.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 121,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This follows sales of 371,392 mt from yesterday.
In India, exports of seed oilmeals in July are expected to rise by 451,794 tons from 335,196 tons in June according to the Solvent Extractors Association of India. This could pressure soybean meal prices in the US.
The US spring wheat harvest is keeping hedge pressure on the wheat market in general. Strong yields have been noted, but recent wetness in that region of the country is bringing talk about quality issues that are possible.
Despite global news trending friendly for wheat prices, US wheat is still priced at a level that limits potential export demand. The wheat market may remain susceptible to selling pressure to try and uncover additional demand.
The US Dollar stays under pressure with the prospects of easing monetary policy. The dollar Index is trading at its lowest point since Dec 2023. The weaker dollar should help support demand for US wheat on the export market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday after strong trade yesterday that saw December corn up 7 ¾ cents. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report indicated unchanged good to excellent ratings when trade was looking for a decline of 1 to 2%.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating unchanged from a week ago at 67%. 97% of the crop is silking, 30% is dented, 74% is in the dough stage, and 5% of the crop is now mature.
The US is now the world’s cheapest offer for corn after basis levels in Brazil and Ukraine both rose significantly. US exports have improved as a result, and yesterday’s inspections had corn at 45.9 mb for last week.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower at midday but have traded on either side of unchanged throughout the session. Similar to corn, trade was looking for a decline in crop ratings in yesterday’s report, but conditions were unchanged. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 239,492 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the good to excellent rating for soybeans unchanged at 68% which is up 9% from a year ago at this time. 81% of the crop is setting pods and 95% is blooming.
All three classes of wheat are trading higher at midday with Chicago and KC wheat leading the way higher. The move higher comes despite an improvement in crop ratings for spring wheat. The US Dollar is lower again today and has reached its lowest level since January 2024 which should be supportive to wheat exports.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the spring wheat crop is rated 73% good to excellent, up 1% from last week. Additionally, 31% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested, up from 18% last week. The winter wheat harvest is 96% complete, which is an increase of only 3% from the previous week.
In Russia, FOB wheat values are estimated at $218 per metric ton according to IKAR. Russia’s Ag minister has estimated the country’s wheat crop at 86 mmt which would compare to the USDA’s estimate of 83 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday as trade responds to the 10 to 12-day weather forecast that shows drier conditions with slightly warmer temperatures. Last week’s WASDE report showed that yields are expected to be large, but the near-term forecast could stress the crop.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is now 91.28% complete which compares to 77.88% completion at this time last year. Despite the fact that harvest is nearly completed, the USDA has a significantly higher estimate for Brazilian than CONAB.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds resuming their selling of grains. They sold 6,462 contracts of corn as of August 13 which left them net short 249,007 contracts. Since the 13th, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 8,000 contracts.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday as the 10-day hot and dry forecast supports both soybeans and corn. On Friday, November soybeans made a new contract low but are recovering today. Soybean meal is leading the way higher and soybean oil has turned positive thanks to gains in palm oil.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 332,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of soybeans as of August 13. They sold 5,431 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 174,447 contracts. This is near their record short position and funds are estimated to have sold an additional 2,500 contracts since the 13th.
Wheat is mixed at midday with the Minneapolis contracts slightly lower, while Chicago and KC wheat are trading mostly higher. Across the board, wheat has rebounded from its earlier morning lows as it follows corn and soybeans higher. The US Dollar is trading at its lowest levels of the year, which is supportive for exports.
Russian wheat export values are said to be near season lows at $218 per mt FOB. This has been keeping pressure on global wheat markets as Russia remains the dominant exporter.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of 1,956 contracts of Chicago wheat, which left them net short 73,288 contracts as of August 13. Since then, funds were estimated to have sold an additional 250 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Recent rains across the Midwest should keep yield prospects high for most of the Corn Belt. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are drier, but it is probably too late to have a negative effect on the crop.
December corn so far today dipped just below the August 12 low of 390 ¼. If this area can hold as near term support the chart may form a double bottom, but a break below this level would look technically weak.
US corn is said to be the world’s cheapest, which may lead to increased export business. Reportedly, US corn is about 40-60 cents per bushel cheaper than Brazil.
Crude oil is down sharply this morning, with September soybean oil hitting a new contract low. Soybean meal is also lower, contributing to the pressure on soybean futures.
US soybeans are globally competitive, but new crop sales still lag behind last year. Current total sales and shipments of old crop soybeans stand at 1.688 billion bushels, compared to 1.949 billion bushels last year. While new crop sales are behind the usual pace, China may step in to buy at these lower levels.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush of 182.9 mb was a new record for the month of July. Soybean oil stocks also declined to 1.497 billion pounds, below the trade guess of 1.608 billion and marked a seven-month low.
At the time of writing, Chicago wheat is near unchanged to a penny lower. The relative support for wheat (compared to corn and soybeans) may be coming from a lower US Dollar Index, as well as higher Matif wheat futures that are trading higher for the day, and are trying to recover from recent losses.
Russian wheat export values are said to be near season lows at $218 per mt FOB. This has been keeping pressure on global wheat markets as Russia remains the dominant exporter.
The International Grains Council is said to have lowered their estimate of global wheat production by 2 mmt to 799 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
In this week’s export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 4.7 mb of corn export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 31.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.7 mb exceeded the 38.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.250 bb.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service lowered their estimate of Ukrainian corn exports to just under 22 mb. Drought conditions may be taking a toll on crops in both Ukraine and southern Russia. Interestingly, this estimate is about 10% below the official USDA figure from Monday’s WASDE report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their estimate of Argentine corn production by roughly 1.5 mmt to 49 mmt. This is more in line with the USDA at 50 mmt but is above the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 46.5 mmt.
Today’s weekly export sales report showed an increase of 8.1 mb in soybean export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 49.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 15.8 mb fell below the 16.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
NOPA crush data will be released later this morning for the month of July, which is expected to be a record. The average trade guess comes in at 182 mb, which would be above the 176 mb crushed in June, and the 173.3 mb from July of last year.
Good rains are moving across the central US today, which will likely be reflected in reductions to drought readings. However, once this system moves through, the extended outlook shows little moisture for the remainder of August.
In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and a decrease of 2.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb exceeded the 16.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures have yet to stop the bleeding, with September currently trading lower for the fourth consecutive session. The US Dollar Index is also higher this morning. All three classes of US wheat appear to be somewhat ignoring these bearish factors, as they have traded both sides of unchanged this morning.
September Chicago wheat approached the 40-day moving average (551) overnight before backing off. It has not traded above this average since early June. This may act as near-term resistance, but a rally above this level would look technically strong.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
This morning’s CPI data revealed a 2.9% annual increase in consumer prices for July, marking the first time inflation has dipped below 3% since 2021. This slowdown in inflation strengthens the case for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed in September.
On a bullish note, US corn export FOB values are currently the world’s cheapest, beating out both Brazil and Ukraine for the next few months, which may lead to additional export business.
Rain is expected over the Corn Belt over the next few days, and parts of Indiana and Illinois could see 2-3 inches.
Ukraine’s corn crop is projected to reach around 24-25 mmt, down from 32.5 mmt last year. With dry weather expected to persist for the next 10 days, the crop may face further damage.
Soybeans have rebounded this morning after putting in a new contract low overnight at 955 ¼ in the November contract. However, this may be a “dead cat bounce,” as there’s little fundamental change since the release of the WASDE report.
News outlets are reporting that California has proposed limiting the use of soybean and canola oil in biodiesel production, in favor of used cooking oil and other feedstocks. The proposal would not be enacted until 2028, so it does not appear to be affecting the market much today but could be a long term bearish factor.
US soybean FOB export values are said to be at a 60-70 cent discount to Brazil, which should allow for more export business and keep the US as the world’s top soybean supplier for the next few months. Additionally, Chinese demand for US soybeans is expected to increase.
US wheat is attempting to rally today, despite another day in the red for Paris milling wheat futures. September Matif wheat put in another near term low today after leaving another small (0.50 Euro) gap on the chart at the opening of the session.
Russian wheat cash values are said to have been weaker, which may pressure global wheat markets despite wet conditions in their spring wheat growing regions that may affect quality, as rains are expected to continue over the next 10 days in those areas.
Despite lowering US spring wheat production on the WASDE report, the USDA has spring wheat for major producers North Dakota and Minnesota rated 81% and 89% good to excellent, respectively.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn rebounded yesterday after the WASDE report but has since given those gains. This is likely due to the still rather large carryout number, as well as pressure from lower soybean and wheat futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 137,160 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed corn condition remained steady at 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 94% of the crop is silking, 60% of the crop is in the dough stage, and 18% of the crop is dented.
News reports suggest that up to six million acres of Chinese crops were affected by flooding, however, it is currently unknown what the extent of the damage is.
Following a bearish USDA report yesterday, soybeans are sharply lower at midday, with the November contract breaking below the previous low of 964 ¼. Higher yield and acreage estimates have led to the largest carryout in six years, now projected at 560 million bushels.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
In yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, soybean conditions remained steady at 68% good to excellent. Additionally, 91% of the crop is blooming, and 72% of the crop is setting pods.
Palm and crude oil are lower this morning, which is pressuring soybean oil. Soybean meal is also down, with reports of high Chinese supply further weighing on the market. The declines in product values are offering little support to soybean futures.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that 93% of the USDA winter wheat crop has been harvested. However, spring wheat conditions declined by 2% from the previous week, with 72% now rated as good to excellent. Additionally, 18% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested.
Yesterday’s WASDE report unexpectedly lowered wheat ending stocks by 28 mb, along with a reduction in spring wheat production. This could provide some support to Minneapolis futures compared to Chicago and Kansas City.
After leaving a gap lower on charts yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again today, adding to pressure in the US market.
Said to be between $220 to $225 per mt FOB through December, Russian wheat export values continue to remain cheap on the global market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
