Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The eastern corn belt is expected to receive moderate rains and average temperatures over the next week or more. As these have been some of the drier areas, this may limit any upside rallies in corn futures. While the northwestern corn belt currently has flood warnings in many areas, the extended forecast looks drier for that region.
• Managed funds remain heavily short the corn market at an estimated 310,000 contracts – without a shift in fundamental factors (including more severe weather) they won’t have reason to cover their positions. This is likely to keep pressure on the market for now.
• Argentina’s grain exchanges, as well as private estimates, still project their crop between 45-47 mmt. This is well below the USDA’s 53 mmt figure. The same can be said for Brazil, in which CONAB is estimating a 114-115 mmt crop compared to the USDA at 122 mmt.
• Grain markets will be closed tomorrow for the Fourth of July holiday, and will not re-open until 8:30 AM central time on Friday. Without any night trade on Thursday, Friday morning could potentially show more volatility if there is any shift in the weather or big news headlines.

• The USDA reported private export sales of 110,100 mt of soybeans for delivery to the unknown. Of that total, 55,100 mt is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year, while 55,000 mt is for 24/25.
• On a bearish note, US new crop soybean sales total only 1.2 mmt so far. This is well below the pace of the past several years, and so far Chinese demand has been lacking. 
• August soybean oil closed yesterday at the highest level since mid-April, and it is trading higher again at midday today, offering support to soybean futures. Higher veg oil and crude oil prices are supportive as well.
• There are reports that Indonesia will impose a 200% tariff on Chinese goods, which may result in China reducing their purchases of Indonesian palm oil in retaliation. Currently that is just speculation, but if true, may lend support to US soybean oil.
• September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange were up on Wednesday by 1.3%, around the equivalent of $14.91 per bushel. With US soybeans priced significantly lower, this in theory could lead to more Chinese purchases of US beans.

• At midday Chicago wheat is neutral to mixed, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures are trading lower. While there will be some rains in both HRW and SRW wheat areas over the next few days, these should not significantly affect the winter wheat harvest. As a result, harvest pressure may continue to affect the market.
• Drought is said to be expanding in the Black Sea region, with expected temperatures in the 90s and 100s that could affect yields of Russian spring wheat.
• Sov Econ is reported to have raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. For reference the USDA is at 83 mmt, in line with most private estimates that fall around the 80 mmt area.
• Paris milling wheat futures closed lower yesterday and are down again at midday today. The front-month September contract has broken below support at the 200-day moving average, which may keep US wheat under pressure today.
• On a bullish note, the US Dollar Index is sharply lower. At the time of writing, it is down 0.55 at 105.17. This may take some weight off the shoulders of the wheat market, if its trend remains lower.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that corn conditions fell 2% to 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 11% of the crop is silking, which is above the average of 6% and last year’s 7%.
• The USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000 mt of corn sold to Columbia for the 23/24 marketing year.
• Heavy rains again fell in the northwestern Midwest, causing more issues in areas that have already experienced extensive flooding. The eastern corn belt is also anticipating modest rains over the next few days.
• Ukraine’s export year just ended in June. According to their ag minister, their corn exports totaled 29.4 mmt, which is 3.4 mmt above the USDA’s estimate.
• US corn basis has been firm, and one potential reason is because of the amount of corn in farmers hands. As of June 1, on-farm corn stocks totaled 3.03 bb, which is 37% above last year and the highest since 1988.

• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that soybean conditions held steady at 67% good to excellent, with 20% of the crop blooming, which is above the average of 15% but in line with last year. Additionally, 3% is setting pods versus 2% average and 3% last year.
• August soybean oil gained 1.96 cents yesterday, which is the biggest single day gain for the year so far. This was a result of the US Energy Department’s report that said in April, renewable diesel plant capacity increased to more than 4.1 billion gallons per year.
• Census crush data showed that soybean crush for the month of May totaled 192 mb which is up 2.7 mb from a year ago. That was at the lower end of expectations, but still a record for May. Additionally, cumulative crush for the marketing year so far is up 3.5% from last year which is in line with the USDA forecast.
• Offering bullish support today is the fact that the US ag attaché in Brazil lowered their estimate of their soybean crop to 150 mmt. This is down 3 mmt from the USDA’s June estimate.

• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions slipped by 1% to 51% good to excellent, with 54% of the crop harvested — well above the 39% average and last year’s 33% pace. Meanwhile, spring wheat conditions improved by 1% to 72% good to excellent, with 38% of the crop headed, slightly below the average of 37% and last year’s 45%.
• After a strong close yesterday, all three US wheat classes are trading lower at midday. This could be the result of profit taking as well as pressure from lower Matif wheat futures this morning.
• Early season estimates of Russian wheat crop production were around 94 mmt. Since that time, analysts have lowered their projections, with most now ranging from 79-83 mmt. Additionally, Sov Econ lowered their estimate of Russian wheat exports to 46.1 mmt vs the 48 mmt figure the USDA is using.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Friday’s USDA estimate of planted corn acreage came in at 91.5 million, above both the average trade guess and the higher end of estimates. While this is bearish, the number of harvested acres may be what is important down the road, especially given the flood damage in the northwestern Midwest.
• The USDA is estimating Brazilian corn production at 122.0 mmt, still well above both CONAB and the International Grains Council which range from 114.1 to 115.4 mmt on their estimates.
• CFTC data on Friday indicated that managed funds, as of June 25, increased their net short position in corn from 209,334 to 296,251 contracts. This continues to add weight to the shoulders of the corn market. 
• Argentina’s corn harvest is said to be 55% done. And due to the leafhopper plague, they experienced this season, some analysts are looking for a crop that is 4-6 mmt below the USDA estimate of 53 mmt.

• On Monday, September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange were up a little bit, around the equivalent of $14.60 per bushel. With US soybeans currently so cheap, there may be more purchases made by China, despite the fact that they usually source from Brazil at this time of year.
• Soybean harvest in Argentina is just about finished, which may offer some pressure to the soybean meal market. The August contract and beyond continue to be in a big picture downtrend.
• According to Friday’s CFTC data, managed funds as of June 25 increased their net short position in soybeans from 74,0302 to 111,179 contracts. Like corn, this is pressuring the soybean market.
• Palm oil is up for the fourth session in a row, and crude oil is higher today as well. Both of these are giving a boost to soybean oil futures this morning.

• Although it is early in the season, US wheat export sales are up 45% compared to last year. This may provide some bullish support to the wheat market.
• Despite a decline in planted wheat acreage on Friday’s report, harvested acres were up by about 800,000. This is somewhat bearish and may limit upside potential for wheat.
• Winter wheat harvest may see some delays this week due to more rain across the central US and potential severe weather. Additionally, the southwestern US plains could see temperatures over 100 degrees this week.
• Sov Econ reportedly decreased their projection of Russian wheat exports for the 24/25 season by 1.7 mmt to 46.1 mmt. For reference the USDA is using a figure of 48 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is currently trading higher at midday ahead of the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. A higher close today would break the trend of the past 6 consecutively lower closes in corn.
• In today’s USDA Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage report, estimates are that corn planted acres will come in at 90.353 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. US quarterly stocks estimates are at 4.873 billion bushels.
• Today was First Notice Day for July corn and 744 contracts were delivered against July with prices attractive to end users. Both ethanol and export demand have been stout with exports potentially exceeding the USDA’s estimates.

• Soybeans are trading higher at midday after the November contract made a new yearly low yesterday as traders await the stocks and acreage report. Weather is expected to turn colder in the northern Plains which could cause some frost risks. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
• In today’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Report, analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
• Today was First Notice Day for July soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, and there were 1,137 soybean oil deliveries, but 877 of those contracts were taken by ADM. Funds are currently estimated to be holding a net short position in soybeans and its products of over 200,000 contracts.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower in the September contract after prices rallied off yesterdays’ lows and remain above the recent low of 556 ¾ in September Chicago wheat. While prices attempt to recover from oversold conditions, harvest continues to pressure prices.
• Estimates for today’s Planted Acreage report have all wheat at 47.657 million acres with 34.197 of those being winter wheat and 11.34 spring wheat. Quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 0.684 billion bushels.
• First Notice Day resulted in 1,129 deliveries against July Chicago wheat while there were no deliveries against KC wheat. Following the recent selloff in wheat the US is becoming more competitive with EU soft wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower at midday but is relatively quiet ahead of tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Report. The wet forecast and expectation of a large number of corn acres are pressuring prices lower.
• Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Report, and estimates are that corn planted acres will come in at 90.353 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. US quarterly stocks estimates are at 4.873 billion bushels
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 21.3 million bushels of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 24/25. This was within expectations, and last week’s export shipments of 46.3 mb were above the 37.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

• Soybeans are mixed at midday with the front months trading lower but deferred contracts slightly higher in a reversal from the usual bull spreading action. Trade may be anticipating a lower soybean planted acreage number released tomorrow.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began on September 1.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of soybean export sales by 10.4 mb in 23/24 and 3.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 14.4 mb were above the 13.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher in the July contracts with Chicago wheat leading the way followed by Minneapolis wheat. KC wheat is higher but is facing some harvest pressure. Today’s move higher is likely technical as prices have become extremely oversold.
• Estimates for Friday’s Planted Acreage report have all wheat at 47.657 million acres with 34.197 million of those winter wheat and 11.34 million spring wheat. Quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 0.684 billion bushels.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of wheat export sales by 24.5 mb for 24/25 which was actually on the higher end of trade expectations. Export shipments of 11.9 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Brazil.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Before turning back higher, December corn made new lows for the year earlier this morning as rains fell yesterday in the eastern Corn Belt which had been dry. The 14-day forecast also shows more incoming rain.
• On Friday, the USDA will release its Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Report, and estimates are that corn planted acres will come in at 90.353 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. US quarterly stocks estimates are at 4.873 billion bushels
• Corn export demand has been strong but not enough to support prices. Yesterday, Mexico purchased 8.3 million bushels of corn with 7.4 mb of that amount as new crop sales.

• Soybeans are mixed at midday with the two front months trading higher but deferred contracts lower. This has been a trend and indicated that there is demand for cash soybeans but anticipation of a large soybean crop arriving later this year. Soybean meal is trading lower, while soybean oil is higher.
• On Friday, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts are estimating that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
• Today’s weather forecast shows rains falling though eastern Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and further southeast. The two-week forecast features significant rains for the eastern Corn Belt which has been in need of rain.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday, with some likely profit taking occurring by the funds who are net short over 50,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
• Estimates for Friday’s Planted Acreage report have all wheat at 47.657 million acres with 34.197 million of those winter wheat and 11.34 million spring wheat. Quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 0.684 billion bushels.
• World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, and Australia receiving more rain than expected.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading sharply lower at midday and the December contract has now taken out yesterday’s low and is trading at the lowest levels since September of 2021 as forecasts continue to show incoming rains throughout the Corn Belt.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 209,931 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 22,098 metric tons are for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 187,833 metric tons are for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed the corn crops’ good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 69% and compares to 50% at the same time last year. 97% of the corn crop has emerged, and 4% of the corn crop is silking.
• With corn so oversold, much of the bearish news may be priced in at this point. With Friday’s acreage report approaching, the numbers would most likely need to be over the top bearish to illicit a significantly negative reaction. A neutral to slightly friendly report could result in a post report bounce.

• Soybeans are trading sharply lower at midday along with corn after posting an impressive reversal off the lows yesterday. November futures have not taken out yesterday’s low as moisture in the forecast keep prices down. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today as well.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed the soybean good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 67% which was 1 point below the trade estimate and compares to 51% a year ago. 90% of the soybean crop has emerged and 8% is blooming.
• The weakness in soybeans comes despite yesterday’s reported flash sale of 228,000 mt of soybean meal to the Philippines and the decline in crop ratings. Notably, the good to excellent ratings for Illinois fell by 2 points and by 10 points in Indiana. Ratings in Iowa remained steady.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Crop progress was mixed with good to excellent ratings being bullish for spring wheat and bearish for winter wheat. Trade continues to expect a large US wheat crop, and harvest is pressuring prices as well.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat rated 71% good to excellent, which was 4 points below the average trade guess and down 5 points from last week. 18% of the crop is headed. In winter wheat, 52% of the crop is rated good to excellent, which was 3 points above the average trade guess and 3 points above last week. 40% of the winter crop is harvested.
• World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, and Australia receiving more rain than expected.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading sharply lower at midday following heavy rains throughout the Corn Belt and flooding in the northwestern Belt. This would be the third consecutive day of lower prices, and earlier today, December futures took out the February lows and traded at the lowest levels since September of 2021.
• Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report, and most trade estimates are calling for a reduction in the good to excellent ratings by another 2 to 5 percentage points following last week’s hot and dry conditions.
• CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later today, but it is expected that funds will have added to their net short positions which was over 200,000 contracts last week. The trend continues lower as South American harvest progresses and US weather has rain in the forecast.

• Soybeans are mixed at midday with the front months slightly higher but new crop contracts trading lower as prices continue to slide falling to their lowest levels since 2021 in the November contract. While forecasts are expected to be hot, there has been enough rain that has fallen and enough in the forecast to suppress prices.
• Soybean meal is trading slightly higher while soybean oil is lower, and it is expected that today’s CFTC report will show that funds have been adding to their short positions in the complex.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 228,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

•  All three wheat classes are trading lower today as prices continue to slide from the May highs with the July contract in Chicago wheat now $1.71 below the high made on the 28th. Prices are now sitting around the lower end of trade from earlier this year.
• World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, and Australia receiving more rain than expected.
• Since the end of May, Paris milling wheat futures have lost approximately 45 Euros per ton which is equivalent to about $1.20 per bushel. The market is currently mixed but is attempting to find support at some key moving averages. A rebound could offer support to the US market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported an increase of 20.1 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 58.3 mb surpassed the 39.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.150 bb.
• On a positive note, US ethanol production bounced back to 1.059 million barrels per day, which is above the weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s projection of ethanol grind.
• Next week Friday, traders will receive both the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. With June 1 corn stocks expected to be higher than a year ago, this suggests that farmers may sell any rallies, keeping pressure on futures prices.
• Expectations for the Crop Progress report this upcoming Monday are for slight declines to crop ratings. However, the most recent corn rating at 72% good to excellent is historically high for this time of year. Therefore, it may require a big drop in condition to help offset the recent bearish trend.

• The USDA reported an increase of 20.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 12.5 mb fell under the 13.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
• There continues to be a lack of new crop US soybean sales, with China having taken zero so far. Brazil soybeans are also said to be cheaper to China (compared to US), which does not bode well for the US export market at this time. Soybean basis levels in China are reported to have fallen over the past couple of weeks, and the Brazilian Real’s value has fallen to the lowest level in several months, making Brazil’s exports less expensive.
• Palm oil is sharply lower on Friday, which may pressure soybean oil. However, at the time of writing, US bean oil is trading around neutral and off session lows.
• Funds are still long the soybean meal market. Given that fact, there is some concern about downside if we see less demand for US meal as South American exports start to kick in.
• According to NOAA, a hot and dry weather pattern is expected to extend into July for parts of the eastern Midwest, which may provide longer term support to the market.

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• The USDA reported an increase of 21.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and a decrease of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 13.4 mb fell under the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb.
• So far the wheat crops in Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina are all looking better than they did at this time last year. The same can be said for the US hard red spring crop. All of this may offer resistance to global prices.
• Since the end of May, Paris milling wheat futures have lost approximately 45 euros per ton – this is equivalent to about $1.20 per bushel. At the time of writing that market is mixed but is attempting to find support at some key moving averages. A rebound would certainly offer support to the US market.   
• Approximately 60% of China’s winter wheat production area is reported to be experiencing extreme heat and dryness, which may provide some support to the market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Localized flooding is likely to affect areas of Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas, with 3-5 more inches of rain expected over the next few days. Meanwhile, the eastern corn belt is expected to see temperatures in the 90s over the next couple weeks with more limited rainfall.
• The European weather model next week has very little humidity relative to the American model. This suggests that there may not be as much moisture in the air for rainfall as the American model predicts.
• Brazil’s July corn FOB export values are said to be more than a 10-cent premium to US FOB values, which may help the export side of things.

• Unconfirmed rumors on Tuesday that China may have bought US soybeans, as well as a friendly NOPA report helped in the rally that day. But so far, those gains are being given back today, potentially on forecasts for limited rainfall in the eastern Midwest.
• Crude oil is trading higher this morning, with the July contract above $82 per barrel for the first time since the end of April. This is reportedly tied to a Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea. Higher crude prices should be supportive for biofuel usage.
• ABIOVE, a Brazilian oilseed group, increased their estimate of Brazilian soybean production to 152.5 mmt, an increase of 1.4 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a 153 mmt figure. This may be adding some bearish pressure to the US market today.

• Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again this morning, with losses of around 4 euros per mt, putting in new six-week lows. This falling market has been adding weight on the shoulders of the US market.
• Europe and Ukraine are reportedly dropping their wheat prices to try to stimulate demand, and are also said to now be cheaper than Russian wheat.
• US wheat futures are very technically oversold; on a range of 0%-100%, July Chicago daily stochastics are around 6%. This technical indicator suggests that the market is due for a correction to the upside. However, this is just one metric, and it should be noted that a market can remain oversold for a long time period during a strong downtrend.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.