Midday

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market remains weaker at midday. The December contract is still floating around the 50-day moving average at 405 ¾.
• Corn export inspections for the week ending September 5 came in at 836,413 mt. Year-to-date exports are at 468,626 mt, which is 26.3% below last year.
• AgRural announced that 15% of Brazil’s corn crop is planted, down 2% from a year ago.
• Weather over the next 10 days will bring limited rainfall in the Midwest. This could cause river transportation to worsen while seeing barge freight costs continue to rise.

• The soy-complex trends weaker at midday. November soybeans have erased yesterday’s gain of 13 cents, dropping near the $10 price level.
• Soybean exports for the week ending September 5 came in at 354,166 mt. Year-to-date inspections are at 262,457 mt which is 29.8% below last year.
• China’s soybean imports for the month of August were a record high of 12.14 mmt.

• Wheat remains higher at midday on reports of lower Russian wheat yields. December Chicago wheat is now back above the 50-day moving average and looking to make a push back above the September high of 582.
• Wheat export inspections for the week ending September 5 came in at 586,687 mt. Year-to-date inspections are 6,35,683, which is 33.5% above last year.
• The potential for a Fed rate cut next week, which could cause a lower dollar making US exports more competitive, is also helping to support the wheat market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is rebounding off its lows from earlier in the session and trading towards the upper end of its range. Weekly export inspections came in at 836, 413 metric tons, though down from last week, they are 31% above the same time last year.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered a large 65,697 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short 176,211 corn futures contracts, roughly half of their record short position from last July.
• Thursday the USDA will release its September WASDE report. Corn production for this year’s crop is expected to drop slightly to 15,076 billion bushels from the August report’s 15,147 bb. The average trade guess for 24/25 ending stocks is also down slightly at 2.007 bb versus 2.073 in August. The trade expects old crop 23/24 ending stocks to come in at 1.856 bb, compared to 1.867 bb last month.
• Except for a tropical storm which is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain into the Delta and the South, the Midwest is expected to remain mainly dry with another round of hot weather this week which could stress the immature crops.
• South American weather could be lending some support as it is expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks, which if prolonged could delay corn and soybean planting and potentially the much larger safrinha crop which is planted after soybean harvest.

• The soybean market is trading higher and towards the top end of the range at midday as it recovers from Friday’s losses, with support coming from higher meal and oil. Weekly export inspections were softer than last week and last year at this time, at 354,166 metric tons.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered 22,455 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short, 154,096 soybean futures contracts.
• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year. We are at the time of year when sales like this are becoming more routine with US export prices typically cheaper than South American offers.
• Thursday, the USDA will release its September WASDE report. Trade expectations are for this year’s crop production to remain unchanged at 4.589 billion bushels. The average trade guess for 24/25 ending stocks is 565 million bushels versus 560 mb currently, with 23/24 carryout shrinking slightly to 341 mb versus 345 last month. 
• Except for a tropical storm which is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain into the Delta and the South, the Midwest is expected to remain mainly dry with another round of hot weather this week which could stress the immature crops.
• South American weather could be lending some support as it is expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks, which if prolonged could delay planting and cut into yield forecasts.

• The wheat complex is lower across the board at midday as it follows through on Friday’s weakness. Weekly export inspection for all wheat came in at 586,687 metric tons. Though they were below last week, they were 44% above last year’s numbers at this time.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered 13,578 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short, 42,624 Chicago wheat futures contracts, nearly half of their total net short position from the end of July.
• In Thursday’s WASDE report, the USDA will focus on the 24/25 marketing year. With current US export sales running 31% ahead of last year, the average trade estimate for 24/25 US carry out is 823 mb, 5 mb less than last month’s USDA projection.  
• Once the report is out of the way, the trade will begin to focus on planting the 25/26 crop. Conditions in the southwestern Plains and the Black Sea region remain dry. Though some rain is expected in W. Montana, with some reaching S. Illinois from the system in the Gulf, and the northwestern Plains next week. Rain this week in Europe could slow planting there.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 6.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 71.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 41.8 mb far exceeded the 26.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.250 bb.
• This morning’s jobs report showed that unemployment fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in July. However, the economy added 142,000 jobs, which was less than the 161,000 expected. This makes it a bit more uncertain as to how much of an interest rate cut the Fed will make later this month, with some expecting a 25 basis point reduction and others expecting 50 basis points.
• Brazil’s weather forecast suggests above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for most of September. This may prevent early corn planting by farmers there.
• Yesterday’s EIA data indicated ethanol production at 1.061 million barrels per day. That was down 10,000 barrels from the previous week, but still the second largest amount for this week of the year and was still up 5% from last year.

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 60.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 18.0 mb fell below the 21.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
• Weather looks mostly dry into mid-September, which is not ideal for finishing the soybean crop. But after the next 10 days, the EU weather model suggests that rain may return to the central US.
• Soybean planting is set to begin this weekend in Brazil. However, major producing state Mato Grosso has not had much rain since April, with some reports that it is the worst drought in 40 years. This could ultimately delay soybean plating.
• Soybean oil is lower this morning and is pressuring soybean futures. This may be in part due to palm oil being down about 2% for the week. Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is said to be at a six-month high.

• The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and net cancellations of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 23.4 mb exceeded the 15.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
• December Paris milling wheat futures are higher this morning. If they close higher, it would be eight out of the last nine sessions with a positive close. Nevertheless, US wheat is mixed to lower at midday, and not receiving much support from the Matif contracts.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, they have left their estimate of Argentina’s wheat production unchanged at 18.5 mmt. This is despite dry conditions in some key growing regions.
• Daily stochastics show overbought conditions for all three US wheat classes. This could result in downside pressure as the market corrects technically.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading softer at midday following a 4-day rally that has seen prices rise 23 cents off their contract lows in the December contract. A cool front and scattered showers are moving through the Corn Belt, and trade may be expecting an increase in yields in next week’s WASDE report.
• Trade estimates for today’s weekly ethanol production report see production slightly higher than last week at 1.072 million barrels per day. Stockpiles are expected to come in at 23.678m bbl, which would compare to 23.572m a week ago. Margins have been profitable which has driven domestic ethanol demand.
• Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its new estimate for the national corn yield and raised it to 182.9 bpa. Next Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, showing their updated yield estimates.

• Soybeans are trading lower today but have rallied steadily since putting in a contract low on August 16 as a result of dry forecasts during the pod fill timeframe. Soybean meal is down sharply, while soybean oil is higher with support from crude and palm oil.
• Yesterday, StoneX revised its estimate for the US soybean yield and increased it along with corn to 53.0 bpa. The increase comes despite the dry forecast which many speculate could trim yields slightly
• Brazil is only expected to increase its planted soybean acreage by 0.9% this year which is the slowest rate of growth in 18 years, but production estimates remain very high at around 168 mmt which would be up 14% from the previous crop.
• Earlier this morning, the USDA reported that 189,700 mt of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, while 126,000 mt were sold to China for the same timeframe. This confirmed some of yesterday’s trade rumors.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Futures are likely correcting from overbought technicals after wheat rallied for 6 consecutive days. KC wheat saw 7 consecutive days of gains.
• While the US has become competitive with most of the world, Russian and Ukrainian offers remain cheaper. Russian FOB offers are between $216 and $217 per mt which is unchanged from August despite a rise in global wheat prices.
• In Ukraine, it is estimated that the 2025 planted winter wheat area could rise to more than 5 million hectares, compared to 4.7 million hectares in 2024. They are expected to plant less rapeseed in favor of wheat due to drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is currently trading toward the upper end of its tight 4 ¼ cent range at midday as it continues to recover from overnight lows as traders likely continue to cover short positions on an improved technical picture, with additional support coming from soybeans and wheat.
• The USDA released its weekly crop progress report yesterday afternoon, which showed the corn crops good to excellent ratings remained steady at 65%, versus 53% last year. The report also showed that 90% of the crop is in the dough stage, 60% dented, and 19% is mature.
• The USDA reported that 473.5 million bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol in the month of July, 4% more than last year.
• There is market talk that there is a push in India to produce more corn-based ethanol and shift away from sugar cane. The move could make India a net corn importer by nearly 1 million metric tons, versus exporting 2 – 4 mmt. Imports could potentially come from Myanmar and Ukraine, with the US and South America potentially filling export holes left behind by India.

• Soybeans continues to recover from overnight lows on an inside day, with the day’s current trading range within yesterday’s high and low. Support is coming from soybean meal and oil, which are currently trading higher.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean good to excellent conditions dropped 2% to 65% as of Sunday September 1, versus 53% last year. The report also showed that 94% of the crop is blooming and 13% is dropping leaves.
• Census crush data was released by the USDA yesterday afternoon and showed July crush at a record 193.4 mb for the month, and well above trade expectations of 192.1 mb. Total crush for the 23/24 marketing year has reached 2.12 billion bushels, 92.6% of the USDA’s current estimate. Soybean oil stocks came in the lowest for any July on record at 2.01 billion pounds, though above trade expectations of 1.97 bp.
• Estimates from a Bloomberg survey show that Malaysian palm oil reserves rose 7.5% and hit a six-month high in the month of August, due to slowing exports. This news adds to the negativity felt in the market from news of China opening an anti-dumping probe against Canada for supposedly dumping cheap canola into China, which drove Canadian canola prices sharply lower and weighed on soybean oil.

• The wheat complex is currently on track for its sixth consecutive day higher across all three wheat classes, with December Chicago and KC contracts trading above the 50-day moving average for the first time since early June, as funds likely continue to cover short positions.
• Yesterday’s USDA crop progress report showed that the spring wheat harvest has advanced to 70% complete as of Sunday September 1, from 51% the week prior, and compares to 70% harvested on average at this time. Additionally, 2% of the winter wheat crop is planted, in line with the five-year average.
• SovEcon reports that Russia’s export prices have held steady this week, landing between $217 and $220 per metric ton. Although Russian wheat remains the cheapest on the world export market, the country’s export totals for August were 5.2 mmt, down slightly from last August’s 5.3 mmt.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Weekly crop progress ratings will be out this afternoon, delayed due to yesterday’s Labor Day holiday. Expectations are for slight declines in ratings.
• The forecast for much of the corn belt looks dry for the next couple of weeks. This may have some impact on the later planted crop. However, there is still anticipation for a record crop.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn harvest is 99.3% complete, and 46.25 mmt of corn have been harvested. Additionally, they estimate that in 2024, 17.1% fewer corn acres will be planted due to leaf hopper disease and drought conditions.
• As reported by Ag Rural, the central-northern region of Brazil has planted about 8% of their first corn crop.

• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
• Crude oil is sharply lower this morning, potentially due to anticipation of lower domestic and Chinese demand. This is putting some pressure on soybean oil. Also pressuring bean oil, is news that China launched and anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola in response to a Canadian 100% import tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
• Also adding to pressure to vegetable oil markets was a fall in Malaysian palm oil prices by 1.1% on Monday. Additionally, Indian vegetable oil imports declined by 17% in August; India is the world’s number one vegetable oil importer.
• According to the EIA, renewable diesel production capacity increased 7% in June to about 4.9 billion gallons annually – that is up 27% on a yearly basis.

• According to Australia’s agriculture bureau, ABARES, they increased their estimate of Australia’s wheat production by 2.7 mmt to 31.8 mmt. That is up about 6 mmt from last year and compares to the USDA estimate of 30 mmt.
• Paris milling wheat futures appear to have hit some resistance at the 21-day moving average and have traded both sides of unchanged so far today. If September closes lower today, it would end the run of five consecutive higher closes.
• According to IKAR and Sov Econ, Russian wheat FOB export values remain cheap at $216 to $220 per mt. These low prices are despite the fact that the Russian wheat crop may be closer to 81-83 mmt, down 11-13 mmt from estimates earlier this season.
• Argentina’s wheat condition, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, has improved from 39% good to excellent last week to 44% this week. For reference, the crop was rated just 19% good to excellent at this time last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher at midday and has only backed slightly off its earlier morning highs. Support has come from good export sales yesterday, which were a marketing year high at 59 million bushels. Only 12 contracts of September corn were tendered for delivery.
• Ethanol production was supportive as well and has run at a pace higher than the USDA’s expectations. This is proof that domestic demand has been firm, and now export demand is beginning to pick up at a time where a large US crop is about to be harvested.
• In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has estimated that the country would produce 46.5 mmt of corn, which is below the USDA’s latest estimate but well above last year’s 37.0 mmt. Harvest is estimated at 99.3% complete.

• Soybeans are trading mixed at midday and are significantly off their earlier morning highs. November soybeans were up 15 cents at 1007 ¾ but are now lower on the day. Futures are still set to post a gain of around 20 cents on the week if these prices hold.
• Soybean meal is bear spread this morning with losses in the October outweighing those in the deferred months, while soybean oil is lower across the board as it follows the selloff in crude oil. Crush margins remain profitable, which has driven domestic demand.
• In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. Planting for the next season is expected to begin in September.

• Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago and Minneapolis wheat trading higher while KC is unchanged to lower. Paris milling wheat was up overnight which is likely lending support, while quality concerns over spring wheat in North Dakota are also supportive.
• Yesterday, the USDA reported weekly wheat export sales as of August 22, increased 19.6 mb for the 24/25 marketing year and decreased 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments of 21.2 mb that week exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
• The Canadian wheat crop is being estimated at 34.4 mmt for 2024 which would be 4.3% above last year’s production according to Statistics Canada. A Bloomberg survey estimated production at 33.8 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• In its weekly export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 0.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 58.8 mb for 24/25 in the week ending August 22. Shipments last week at 41.3 mb exceeded the 33.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.250 bb.
• China has reportedly asked private feed companies not to import barley or sorghum in an effort to support their domestic market. While corn was not directly mentioned, this could be overall bearish to the grain markets if China decides to curb imports. Interestingly, there was a flash sale announced this morning for 118,000 mt of sorghum for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
• It has been too dry in both Argentina and southern Brazil. Additionally, central Argentina and northern Brazil have seen very little precipitation for the past month or so. This could affect the establishment of the corn crops, for which planting usually begins in September.  

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 5.3 mb in soybean export sales for 23/24 but an increase of 96.1 mb for 24/25 in the week ending August 22. Shipments last week at 19.9 mb exceeded the 19.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
• August has been generally dry across the Midwest, though perhaps not hot enough overall to cause big yield drops in soybeans. Nevertheless, the top could be taken off, which may be providing support to futures at these lower price levels.
• Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning, offering support to soybean futures. Bean oil may be leading the charge, as it is said to now be cheaper than both palm oil and South American soybean oil. Palm oil futures are trading higher today however, recovering after news that India could increase their vegetable oil import tax.

• US wheat futures have traded both sides of unchanged so far this morning. Initial weakness may have stemmed from a lower trade in Paris milling wheat futures. However, at the time of writing that market has turned positive, giving a boost to the US market.
• In the week ending August 22, the USDA reported wheat export sales increased 19.6 mb for the 24/25 marketing year and decreased 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments of 21.2 mb that week exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.  
• Reportedly Russia’s domestic cash wheat prices have moved upward. However, their exports continue to remain cheaper than other origins and relatively unchanged. Their FOB values are said to remain around $216 to $218 per metric ton.
• Argus Media has estimated the French soft wheat harvest will total 25.1 mmt. If accurate, this would be a 27% decline from last year. Additionally, they believe that French wheat exports (outside of the European Union) will fall to 4.1 mmt – this would be a 60% decline.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 100,000 mt of corn for delivery to Columbia during the 24/25 marketing year, and 165,735 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico also during the 24/25 marketing year.
• US corn futures are at a significant discount when compared with corn futures on China’s Dalian exchange. The equivalent of a $4.70 per bushel difference is the largest in nearly a year, which may eventually lead to China importing more US corn.
• Today’s ethanol report from the EIA showed that production fell to 1.071 million barrels per day from 1.098 last week. However, this is still up 6.3% from last year and above the pace necessary to reach the USDA’s estimated corn usage of 5.450 billion bushels. Additionally, stocks were steady at 23.6 million barrels, which compares to 21.6 million a year ago.
• Mississippi River water levels have been on the decline, which has caused barge rates to increase. Reportedly, St. Louis barge freight has a 725% tariff, versus a tariff of 330% earlier this month.

• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 264,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
• Rain fell overnight in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana. This should help to finish the crop and keep yield prospects high in those areas.
• Both soybean oil and meal are trading lower at the time of writing, offering weakness to soybean futures. The bean oil in particular may be reacting to the lower crude market, as concerns over Middle East production have somewhat subsided.
• India is said to be considering an increase on vegetable oil import taxes. This may also be pressuring US soybean oil futures because India is the top global importer of vegetable oils.

• After posting a bullish key reversal on yesterday’s close, Chicago wheat futures are trading higher again today. Daily stochastics also show a buy crossover signal in oversold territory. Both of these technical indicators suggest that a low may have been reached.
• Paris milling wheat futures are trading higher for the second session in a row. However, at the time of writing it appears that the front month September contract could be running into some resistance around the 10-day moving average. September has not traded above this level in about two and a half weeks.
• Offering a boost to wheat this morning is data from Stats Canada. Their 2024 all wheat production figure came in at 34.4 mmt, compared to an average pre-report estimate of 35.1 mmt. Of that total, the majority of production is from spring wheat at 25.4 mmt, which was roughly in line with last year’s production.
• Russian cash wheat values are reported to have fallen by $1 per metric ton and are now around $216 to $218 per mt. Russia has been aggressively selling wheat despite declines to their crop production, which has been keeping pressure on global wheat markets.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• After a weaker start, the grain complex has turned higher by midday. With little fresh news to drive the market, this rally appears to be largely technical in nature.
• According to the USDA, 65% of the corn crop is rated 65% good to excellent, down 2% from last week. In addition, 84% of the crop is in the dough stage, 46% is dented, and 11% is mature.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that Argentina is expected to reduce corn planting by 21% due to the leaf hopper plague that affected last year’s crop. Approximately 4.9 million acres may be shifted to soybean cultivation.
• In general, the downtrend for grains remains intact. December corn in particular did close below 390 yesterday. With a lot of corn still in farmers’ hands, any rallies are likely to be sold, which may limit upside price movement.

• The USDA reported in its weekly crop progress report that 67% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Additionally, 89% of the crop is setting pods, while 6% of the crop is dropping leaves.  
• The forecast for the next seven days has put a little more rain into the eastern corn belt compared to previous forecasts, which should help with pod fill and to keep yield prospects high.
• After a strong move higher over the past few sessions, crude oil is taking a breather today, and is down over a dollar per barrel at the time of writing. This is keeping pressure on soybean oil, which is currently trading near unchanged, despite the gains in the rest of the grain complex.

• The USDA reports that 69% of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent, down from 73% last week. Additionally, 51% of the crop has been harvested, compared to 50% at this time last year and the 53% average.
• The US Dollar index is slightly lower this morning, offering some support to grains. However, it appears to be consolidating at these lower levels, and a potential recovery could pressure wheat.  
• Paris milling wheat futures have stopped the bleeding after four consecutive lower closes, with contracts trading higher this morning, lending some support to the U.S. wheat market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.