The USDA reported an increase of 17.2 mb of corn export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 19.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 43.5 mb exceeded the 42.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 2.225 bb.
Ethanol production at 1.106 million barrels per day was close to a record, but stocks still declined slightly, implying strong ethanol demand.
Weather for most of the Midwest remains non-threatening and favorable for crop development. Unless this shifts rather quickly, it will be difficult to sustain any rallies.
US corn is said to be at an 18 – 20 cent discount to Brazil offers on a FOB basis, which in theory should lead to more US exports. It was reported that Taiwan purchased 65,000 mt of US corn yesterday.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.2 mb of soybean export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.4 mb fell below the 14.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 1.700 bb.
This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of 510,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. In addition, 150,000 mt of soybean meal were also sold to unknown for 24/25.
There has been talk that the national soybean yield could be a record 53 bpa due to generally advantageous weather and growing conditions. This may keep a lid on any rallies, despite the current technically oversold conditions.
The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year. Shipments last week at 23.2 mb exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 825 mb.
Wheat futures are mixed amongst the three categories at midday; Chicago is down but Minneapolis and Kansas City are up. Matif wheat is not lending any support, with those contracts in negative territory at the time of writing, and a chart gap remaining above the market.
Though it is moving higher at midday, the US Dollar Index has been in a big picture downtrend. With talk that the Fed may issue two rate cuts this year, it could keep pressure on the Dollar which would be bullish for wheat and commodities in general.
Algeria is said to have purchased 750,000 to 800,000 mt of milling wheat on Wednesday. However, it is reportedly being fulfilled entirely by the Black Sea.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are trading slightly higher at the time of writing – the bounce yesterday and follow through today may be technical in nature. Futures are oversold and may be due for a correction to the upside, however, there has not been any major bullish shift in fundamentals.
Due to the recent rains across much of the Midwest, soil moisture levels should be sufficient for the next week or so, with drier weather expected. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be moderate over the next couple of weeks.
US corn basis is said to be firming, along with those in Brazil and Ukraine, and US corn export values are said to be competitive on a FOB basis. Due to dry and hot conditions in eastern Europe, and Ukraine in particular, Ukraine’s corn yields may decline by 30%-35%, according to the Ukraine Agrarian Council.
According to CONAB, Brazilian safrinha corn harvest is 75% complete, and their estimate of Brazil’s total corn production remains 5-6 mmt below the USDA’s projection.
This morning, August soybeans filled the chart gap left between Friday’s low at 1102 ½ and Monday’s high of 1101. However, at midday soybeans are off their session highs with deferred contracts having traded both sides of unchanged, indicating that this may be a dead cat bounce.
ANEC, a Brazilian export group, is anticipating Brazil’s July soybean exports will reach 10.7 mmt. Additionally, ABIOVE, a Brazilian oilseed processors group, increased their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop to 153.2 mmt, which is above CONAB’s guess and closer to what the USDA is projecting.
Despite higher crude oil and palm oil values, soybean oil has reversed off early session highs and is trading mostly lower at the time of writing. Along with lower meal prices, this is weighing on soybean futures. US soybean meal is also believed to be overpriced compared to South America by $40-$50 per mt on a FOB basis.
Wheat futures are leading the grain complex higher at midday with double digit gains, reversing from yesterday’s lower close. This may also be a correction from technically oversold conditions.
Egypt is said to have purchased 770,000 mt of wheat in their tender. Russia fulfilled the majority of the deal at 720,000 mt, with Bulgaria supplying the remainder. Both French and Romanian offers were said to be priced much higher, causing them to lose out on the business.
Rostov, a wheat growing area of Russia, is said to have produced 11% of Russia’s total wheat crop last year. According to the Russian ag minister, that area has been affected by drought, floods, and frost, all of which could lead to harvest being down 38% in that region.
The US Dollar index so far today reached the lowest level since late March before recovering a bit. It remains sharply lower at midday and is lending support to wheat futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Despite storms last night with some reports of tornadoes, damage to crops does not appear to be widespread. The weather forecast also appears to be relatively benign for the majority of the Midwest.
Corn conditions held steady at 68% good to excellent, which is the highest rating since 2020 for this time of year. Additionally, 41% of the crop is silking and 8% of the crop is in the dough stage.
The stock market is surging this morning – at the time of writing the DOW is up nearly 600 points. This may be offering some spillover support to commodity markets. Outside influences, including dovish statements by Fed Chairman Powell regarding interest rate cuts, may be playing a part.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush data came out at 175.6 mb for June. While this was a new record, it was also a bit below expectations. Additionally, soybean oil stocks fell to 1.622 billion pounds which was also on the lower end of expectations.
Soybean conditions held steady at 68% good to excellent, which like corn, is the highest rating for this timeframe since 2020. Additionally, 51% of the crop is blooming and 18% of the crop is setting pods.
At midday, soybeans are attempting to recover from yesterday’s sharply lower close. Pressure yesterday may have been in part tied to concerns that there could be another trade war with China this fall (in the event Trump wins the election) that would result in China reducing US grain imports.
Despite what appears to be a turnaround Tuesday for corn and soybeans, wheat is still trading lower at the time of writing. Pressure is coming from today’s jump in the US Dollar Index back above its 200 day moving average, as well as more weakness in Matif wheat futures, which have yet to fill yesterday’s chart gap.
According to the USDA, 71% of the winter wheat crop is harvested, still well above last year’s 53% and the 62% average. Spring wheat ratings improved 2% to 77% good to excellent; this is the highest rating since 2019, and 76% of that crop is headed.
The Black Sea area has chances for some rain this week, but mostly dry and hot conditions are stressing crops. This weather has been particularly impactful in Ukraine and western Kazakhstan.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Over the next week or so, much of the eastern corn belt will receive good rain, which is likely to keep a lid on any rallies. Conversely, there is heat and dryness projected for the northwestern Midwest; this could affect corn with shallow roots in areas that were too wet.
According to CFTC data, funds are now short 354,000 contracts of corn, which is their largest net short position since 2019.
Some analysts suggest that there could be as much as 500K-900K acres of prevent plant in corn. In August NASS will give traders an update with seeded and harvested acres with FSA farm data. This could be bullish long term.
Despite the lower trend, so far December corn futures have held support at four dollars. This is an important level from a psychological perspective, and may continue to hold, as corn is technically oversold.
The Commitments of Traders report on Friday indicated that managed funds hold a record short soybean position. On one hand, this could lead to a short covering rally in the event of friendly news. On the other hand, the trend remains lower for now, and they may continue to add to shorts with momentum in their favor.
CONAB’s estimate of Brazilian soybean production is still 5.7 mmt below the USDA’s 153.0 mmt forecast, which was unchanged from last month on Friday’s report. If the USDA revises this number lower on future reports, it could provide some support to the market.
China purchased 4.9 mb of US new crop soybeans last week; this was their first new crop purchase so far. With the drop in US soybean prices, China may come back for more, but so far their absence has been a bearish factor to the market.
Some analysts suggest that soybean prevent plant, as will be reported by NASS in August, could total 400K-800K acres. As in corn, this could paint a more long term bullish picture.
The USDA report last Friday estimated better than expected production for both winter and spring wheat. This is weighing on all three futures classes at midday.
Paris milling wheat futures are down sharply at midday, after having gapped lower on their open. At the time of writing, the front month September contract is down six Euros, and is trading at the lowest level since late April and does not bode well for support to US wheat futures.
Russian wheat export values are said to have fallen again, to $218 per mt FOB, and is also adding pressure to the marketplace. When, and if, Russian export values begin to rise it may help us prices. But for now, this remains a bearish factor.
On a somewhat bullish note, the USDA did increase US wheat demand on Friday’s report. Feed usage was increased, and exports were raised by 25 mb to 825 mb. So far US wheat exports are off to a good start for the season, and this could eventually result in a cut to ending stocks.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday ahead of the WASDE report which will be released at 11am central. At this point, futures have given up all of yesterday’s gains as trade anticipates a bearish report.
Estimates for today’s USDA report are for a small increase in old crop ending stocks and a new crop carryout which could be near 2.3 billion bushels. The data from the June 1 stocks report will be included in this report in which 150 mb more of stocks were found.
Yesterday, CONAB revised its estimates for the Brazilian corn crop and increased it to 115.86 mmt which compared to last week’s guess of 114.14 mmt. The USDA will likely keep their estimate above CONAB’s today as it has done all season.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday along with the rest of the grain complex as trade expects a mostly bearish USDA report. Futures have slid from earlier this morning when prices were slightly higher, and now both soybean meal and oil are both lower as well.
Expectations for today’s report are for new crop soybean ending stocks to fall slightly by 6 mb to 449 mb, but the range of estimates is wide and could leave trade surprised. The USDA has maintained its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop well above CONAB’s, so it is unlikely they will drop production estimates much today.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the low end of trade estimates with 7.6 mb of old crop sold, 7 mb of new crop, and shipments soft at 9.8 mb. China made its first purchase of new crop soybeans this week, but they will need to purchase more to move the market in a significant way.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down, having given up most of yesterday’s gains, while Chicago and Minneapolis contracts are mostly all below yesterday’s range. Prices have been moving in wide ranges each day but have been rangebound overall over the past month.
Expectations for today’s report are for total wheat production to rise by 37 mb and for ending stocks to rise by 29 mb to 788 mb on June 30, 2025. While the report is expected to be bearish, much of it could be priced in at this point.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was below the range of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 10.8 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday as prices rebound from the lower start to the week across the grain complex. Export sales were soft today, but futures have been oversold and funds are likely taking profits on a portion of their short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 21.2 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 4.6 mb for 24/25. This was up 51% from last week but down 13% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 34.6 mb were above the 33.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
This morning, CONAB updated its estimates for Brazilian corn production and increased the number to 115.86 mmt which compares to 114.14 mmt last month. This is still well below last year’s production of 131.89 mmt, and this year’s estimate is still below the USDA’s estimate.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday but have backed off slightly from the earlier morning highs. Exports were on the softer side again this week. Soybean meal is mixed with the front months slightly higher and deferred contracts lower. Soybean oil is leading soybeans higher today.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase in soybean export sales of 7.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 14.3 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Japan.
This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazil’s soybean production but made few changes. Production was called at 147.34 mmt compared to 147.35 mmt last month. This compares to 154.61 mmt last year.
All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday with KC leading the way up. There is likely some short covering ahead of tomorrow’s report, but CPI data that was released today showed inflation easing which is likely supporting the grain complex as a whole today.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was below the range of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 10.8 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.
Ukrainian grain exports are expected to rise by over 1 mmt this marketing year with 1.13 mmt of grain already exported in the season that started July 1. This is a 62% increase over the 698k tons exported at this same time last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is mixed at midday with the front month trading slightly higher while the deferred contracts trade lower. Hurricane Beryl brought significant rains across the dry eastern Corn Belt yesterday with amounts up to two inches, and showers are still falling further east today.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report for ethanol see production lower than last week at 1.049m barrels per day and average stocks estimates at 23.604m bbl which would compare to 23.594 million a week ago. Ethanol margins have been improving, and an average plant in the Midwest is estimated to have margins of 35 to 40 cents a gallon.
Funds have been aggressively selling across the ag complex and are estimated to be net short 350,000 contracts of corn which would be a new record net short position taking out February’s 340,000 net short.
Soybeans are trading lower today as futures continue to slide due to favorable weather conditions. Today, futures are bear spread in a reversal from the previous trend in which the August contract has performed better than the new crop contracts with strong demand for cash soybeans.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during MY 24/25. This was the first sale of new crop soybeans to China so far this year.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. After rallying a month ago due to Russian production concerns, prices have slid due to harvest pressure, higher than expected Russian production estimates, and poor export demand.
In Europe, weather is causing production problems for the wheat crop, with Ukraine and Russia expected to produce less than last year as well. Although, Russia is still expected to dominate the global export market as they continue to offer the cheapest wheat.
As of July 2, funds were sellers of 3,487 contracts of Chicago wheat bringing their net short position to 73,974 contracts, and were sellers of 6,031 contracts of KC wheat bringing that short position to 43,103 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday after yesterday’s sharp selloff and is likely getting most of its support from the wheat market, which is higher as well. Today’s price action is likely some correction after yesterday’s move lower as fundamentals have been mostly bearish.
While weather has been mostly favorable, Minnesota and Wisconsin are dealing with surplus topsoil moisture with continued rain in the forecast. For the eastern Corn Belt, tropical storm Beryl is bringing much needed rain that should linger this week.
Yesterday’s report showed the good to excellent rating in corn increasing by 1 point to 68% which compares to 55% at this time a year ago. 24% of the crop is silking, which compares to 11% last week and 18% last year, with 3% in the dough stage, which is above the 2% last year at this time.
Soybeans are lower at midday as they continue to slide with the September and November contracts making new contract lows. Export demand has been lacking, while domestic demand has been firm which has lent support to the August contract as processors look to buy cash soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating rising by one point to 68%, while the poor to very poor rating fell to 8%. Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio improved the most while Mississippi, North Carolina, and North Dakota declined.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today despite an improvement in crop ratings and the ongoing winter wheat harvest. Prices seem to be trying to find stability after the sharp selloff over the past month. Concerns that world supplies may be lower for 24/25 could add support.
In Europe, weather is causing production problems for the wheat crop, and Ukraine and Russia are expected to produce less than last year as well. Russia is still expected to dominate the global export market as they continue to offer the cheapest wheat.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat at 63% harvested, which compares to 54% a week ago and the average of 52%. Spring wheat saw an improvement in good to excellent ratings up to 75%, which compares to 72% last week and just 47% last year. 59% of the crop is headed which compares to 38% a week ago and the average of 60%.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday after last week’s light volume holiday trade saw prices end slightly higher for the week. Over the weekend, forecasts began to show remnants of hurricane Beryl headed to the eastern Corn Belt where they will improve chances of rain.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 135,636 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 50,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 84,836 metric tons is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that the good to excellent ratings for the corn crop will improve slightly thanks to the recent favorable weather.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower today due to the improved weather forecast that is also pressuring corn. Last week, prices moved higher on low volume due to the holiday, but those gains are being given back. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
The bullish story in the soy complex has been the improving crush margins that have fueled domestic demand for processors and have also triggered the bull spreading between the August front month and the November contracts as cash soybeans are in demand.
The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.
All three classes of wheat are trading lower today with KC wheat down the hardest followed by Chicago. There has been a combination of harvest pressure, improved estimated yields, and a better Russian crop than thought a month ago.
Ukraine has reportedly harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 and was harvested over 482,200 hectares of land according to the Agriculture Ministry. The country had only harvested 172,000 mt of wheat last year at this time.
Adding to the pressure, Russian wheat export FOB values are said to have fallen to $221 to $225 per mt. Also, with SovEcon recently increasing their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 80.7 to 84.1 mmt on better-than-expected yields, this could keep a lid on rising wheat futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.1 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 12.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 35.2 mb fell below the 37.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.150 bb.
Parts of the eastern Corn Belt received rain yesterday with more anticipated to fall into the beginning of next week. Temperatures are also expected to be about average over the next week or so. This may offer some resistance to the corn market.
Parts of the northern and western Midwest also received rain yesterday and many of these areas are already too wet. Reportedly, five of these states have flood advisories, including southern Illinois.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn crop is 63% harvested, which is near the average pace. Although, according to the International Grains Council, US corn FOB values are still a little bit cheaper versus both Argentina and Brazil.
The USDA reported an increase of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.2 mb fell below the 13.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
Both soybean oil and meal are trading higher at midday, offering a boost to soybean futures. August oil in particular has made another near term high and is trading at the highest level in about three months. According to the US Energy Department, 1.070 million pounds of soybean oil were used to produce biofuel in the month of April.
There continue to be rumors of a trade war between Indonesia and China. Reportedly, Indonesia will impose a 200% tariff that could lead to China looking at other sources for their vegetable oil imports. Along with declines to the rapeseed and sunflower seed crops in the EU and Black Sea, this could mean that China will import more US soybean oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 29.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.3 mb fell below the 15.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 800 mb.
US wheat is rebounding at midday, with double-digit gains so far across all three US futures classes. Support is coming from Paris milling wheat futures which are also trading higher, and the US Dollar Index which is down this morning. Additionally, the US Dollar Index has broken through support this morning at the 40 and 50-day moving averages, which may indicate more downside (this would be bullish for wheat).
On a bearish note, Russian wheat export FOB values are said to have fallen to $221 to $225 per mt. And with Sov Econ recently increasing their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 80.7 to 84.1 mmt on better than expected yields, this could keep a lid on rising wheat futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
