The corn market is trading higher across the board though off the day’s highs that challenged the recent high from early September. Rumors of early yields that are lower than expected may be leading to the rally and potential short covering.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its Commitment of Traders report Friday afternoon, showing that managed funds net sold 2,680 corn futures contracts, which brought their net short position to 134,814 contracts, as of Tuesday, September 17. Today, they are currently estimated to be net short about 146,000 corn futures contracts.
Over the weekend a front brought widespread showers and some heavy rain across the Midwest, with another low pressure system developing that could bring more showers later this week before turning dry again. Another front is expected to move through next week that could impact harvest.
Soybeans are leading the grain floor higher at midday with November beans posting just under a 30-cent high to low trading range. Rumors of lower than expected early yields and technical buying may be contributing to the day’s strength. Sharply higher soybean oil and meal are also lending support.
Friday the CFTC released its Commitment of Traders report that showed managed funds bought 8,186 soybean futures contracts, bringing their net short position to 122,415 contracts, as of Tuesday, September 17. They are currently estimated to still be short about 122,000 soybean futures contracts.
Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil’s soybean crop is 0.5% planted as of September 20. This is behind the five-year average of 1.5% complete and compares to 1.6% complete last year. Hot and dry conditions have slowed the planting place, though rain is expected to move in later this week and next.
The wheat complex is higher across all three classes at midday, with Chicago and KC leading the Minneapolis contracts. The rise in tensions in both the Middle East and the Black Sea regions could be a contributing factor along with carryover support from higher corn and soybeans.
Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that managed funds bought 4,364 contracts of Chicago wheat, which brought their net short to 25,033 contracts as of Tuesday, September 17. As of this morning managed funds are estimated to be short about 24,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry stated on its website that this year’s Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 31.9 million metric tons, ahead of last year’s 29.8 mmt. Of this total, 22.3 mmt is wheat compared to 22.2 mmt last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market continues to struggle at midday as sellers maintain control with a lack of fresh bullish news and harvest beginning to ramp up.
There have been no reported large private export sales by the USDA this week, which may put a damper on next week’s weekly Export Sales report. Though China remains absent from the US corn export market as of late, yesterday the USDA reported 33.36 mb of corn sold as of September 12, which was in line with expectations and higher than the previous week.
Mississippi River levels continue to be a concern with barge traffic running with restricted payloads and tow sizes, which is pressuring basis levels. While the Midwest is seeing some rain move through the region, more will be needed to restore river levels.
Soybean prices tumbled, along with meal earlier this morning despite a flash sale to China. They are now trading at the lower end of their range after giving up overnight gains, as the market continues to trend sideways.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year to China. This marks just the second reported flash sale for the week, following a previous 132,000 mt sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Monday.
According to an executive at Agrovet in India, the country’s palm oil production is expected to increase 3 fold in the next 6 years as oil palm plantations increase and become mature for harvest. This is expected to allow India to reduce its reliance on imported palm oil and could affect bean oil prices long term.
Just as the Mississippi River is dealing with low water levels due to dry weather, the Amazon River basin in South America is experiencing similar conditions, limiting grain loads and potentially slowing exports.
A generally quiet news day for the ag markets has the wheat complex trading mixed at midday as the December contracts across all three classes hold support near yesterday’s lows.
The prolonged drought in Argentina is prompting some farmers to abandon some wheat fields in the north and west agricultural regions. Meanwhile, in the eastern areas, it’s been noted that about 80% of the wheat crop is in normal to excellent condition.
In Western Australia, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia reduced its estimate of the region’s wheat production by 7% from last month to 9.3 million metric tons due to dry weather. Australia as a whole is expected to produce 31.8 mmt, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains weaker at midday after yesterday’s Fed rate cut of 50 points. Money seems to be moving to the equity markets from commodities.
Corn export sales came in at 33 million bushels, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date export commitments are at 559 mb, up 21% from a year ago.
Ukraine’s top producer group reported total exportable corn could range from 15-17 mmt versus 30 mmt last year due to poor growing conditions in the region. This could give US exports a boost with a smaller quantity available to export out of the Black Sea.
Soybeans trade lower at midday on fears of a slowing economy in China, which could hurt US export business.
Soybean export sales came in at 64 million bushels, which was above expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at 588 mb, down 6% from a year ago.
Drought conditions in South America have caused low water levels on both the Amazon and Parana rivers limiting grain loads.
Wheat is weaker at midday after rains move into the forecast for the Central Plains states.
Wheat export sales came in at 9 million bushels, below expectations. Year-to-date commitments are at 405 mb, up 28% from a year ago.
Brazil’s wheat harvest is behind last year’s pace at only 17.8% complete versus 22.8% on average.
France lowers wheat exports by 3.5 mmt to 4 mmt due to disruptive weather patterns affecting production.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is currently trading in a tight 3 ½ cent range, alongside a supportive soybean market and a mixed wheat complex.
The markets are anxiously awaiting the Fed’s anticipated cut in short-term interest rates later today. While a rate cut is widely expected, there is debate whether it will be a 0.25% cut or 0.50%. Lower US interest rates can weigh on the US dollar, which can be friendly to US export prices.
The EIA released its ethanol production report showing that, for the week ending September 13, ethanol production dropped more than expected to 1.049 million barrels per day, with stocks at 23.785 million barrels, compared to the expected 23.74 million.
In its latest report, Brazilian trade group ANEC expects Brazil’s corn exports to reach 6.63 million metric tons in September, up from 6.47 mmt the previous week.
November soybeans traded above the 50-day moving average for the first time since late May, with support coming from firmer soybean oil, which is currently up on rising world veg oil prices. Soybean meal is trading mixed.
India’s edible oil demand is expected to remain strong, according to a Reuters report, despite a 20% hike in import tariffs on crude and refined edible oils. Cooking oils remain affordable, and consumption is anticipated to grow 2% – 3% due to rising prosperity and a growing population. India imports about 70% of its cooking oil needs.
In its latest report, Brazilian trade group ANEC expects Brazil’s soybean exports to reach 5.83 million metric tons in September, up from 5.51 mmt the previous week.
The wheat complex is trading mostly mixed across all three classes as it continues to consolidate from Monday’s slide, with little fresh news to move prices significantly.
On the weather front, dry conditions continue to affect the Black Sea region and are expected to continue into late September. While there was a report of another frost in southeast Australia, though the threat was apparently minimal. Showers are moving through the US plains this week and weekend, which should help winter wheat establishment.
While Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export market with offers near $216 per metric ton. The anticipated cycle of monetary easing by the Fed may help US wheat export prices be more competitive.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn trades slightly lower at midday on improved corn ratings.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings improving 1% to 65% good-to-excellent. Harvest continues to progress as well, jumping 4% from a week ago to 9% complete.
Harvest progression and Mississippi River transportation problems could fuel further weakness in prices in the short-term.
French corn production forecast was raised from 14.01 mmt last month to 14.38 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday on doubts of record yields after 11 of 18 states reported worse good-to-excellent ratings.
In Mondays Crop Progress report, soybean ratings were seen falling 1% to 64% good-to-excellent with 6% of the crop harvested.
NOPA crush for the month of August came in well below expectations at 158 mb, down 13.5% from July and 2% from last year.
Soybean oil is higher at midday after bean oil stocks came in well below expectations at 1.138 billion pounds in yesterday’s NOPA crush report.
Chicago and Kansas City wheat pull back at midday on technical resistance and reports of tensions between Russia and Ukraine easing. Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher.
HRS harvest is 92% complete, up 1% from a year ago. Winter wheat planting also improved 1% from a year ago to 14% complete.
The French Ag Ministry lowered their SRW harvest projection from 26.3 mmt last month to 25.8 mmt.
Dry weather in Ukraine continues to present challenges for planting. Ukraine sowing is just 6.9% versus 11.8% a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With little fresh news, the corn market is trading back and forth across unchanged, currently at the lower end of its 4 ½ cent range in the December contract.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in corn futures by 44,077 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 132,134 contracts.
Harvest in the southern Midwest is starting to pick up with the dry weather, and early yields are promising in southern Illinois and Indiana. The recent rain from Hurricane Francine may offer some relief to the low Mississippi River levels, but more moisture will be needed to restore them to normal.
The soybean market is seeing choppy back and forth trade at midday after rejecting the day’s initial rally on another flash sale to unknown destinations. Soybean meal and oil are also experiencing choppy trade with meal trading in sympathy with soybeans while oil shakes off initial lows.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in soybean futures by 23,495 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 130,601 contracts.
Later today, the NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) will release its monthly crush report. Traders expect August crush at 171.35 million bushels, a 6.3% drop from July, mostly due to idled plants for seasonal maintenance ahead of harvest, but up 6.1% from August 2023. Soybean oil stocks are expected to come in at 1.356 billion pounds, a 9.5% drop from July if realized, but up 8.5% from last year.
Soybean area is expected to increase in Argentina according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to 19m hectares (47 million acres), a 9.8% increase from last year, due to a fear of the leafhoppers that attacked last year’s corn crop.
The wheat complex is trading mostly lower at midday, as it appears to be rejecting trade near 600 in both the December Chicago and KC contracts, with insufficient bullish news to sustain higher price levels. Minneapolis contracts are following suit, though to a lesser degree.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat futures by 13,227 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 29,397 contracts.
Russian wheat exports surged in August, reaching 5.15 mmt, a 62% increase from July, according to LSEG agricultural research. This jump was driven by lower supplies from the EU, which were estimated to have decreased by 10 mmt to 124 mmt.
Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export market with low export prices. They are currently reportedly hovering between $216-$218 per metric ton.
Growing dryness in the US southern Plains, parts of Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea region have added support to the wheat market, along with the threat of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia, which could disrupt wheat shipments.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is currently firm and holding to the upper end of its range as it recovers from yesterday’s initial bearish reaction to the USDA’s WASDE report with support coming from higher wheat.
While the USDA raised its yield estimate for this year’s corn crop to a record 186.3 bpa, they lowered 24/25 ending stocks for the third time in a row to 2.057 billion bushels, slightly higher than expected, due to higher 23/24 exports and ethanol demand.
This week’s Drought Monitor showed an increase in drought conditions for the nation’s corn producing areas. Corn producing areas in drought increased 5% to 18%. While this may not have a large impact on this year’s crop, it bears watching in the coming months.
The drought in Brazil has resulted in the driest soil conditions in 30 years in two of the country’s largest producing states. While this is primarily an issue for soybeans right now, any extended delay in soybean planting could affect production of the safrinha corn crop.
Soybeans are trading toward the lower end of their trading range after hitting overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average in the November contract. Weakness from both meal and oil is adding pressure as both products also rejected upward advances and are trading lower at midday.
Yesterday the USDA released supply and demand numbers that were somewhat friendly to the soybean market. The USDA lowered 24/25 ending stocks to 550 million bushels, a 10 mb reduction from August versus an 8 mb that was expected. The drop was largely due to higher crush demand in the 23/24 marketing year that carried over to 24/25. Yield projections were left unchanged at 53.2 bpa.
This week’s Drought Monitor revealed a 7% increase in drought conditions across the nation’s soybean producing regions, bringing the total area affected to 26%. While the impact on this year’s crop may be limited, it’s a development worth monitoring closely in the coming months.
The drought in Brazil has resulted in the driest soil conditions in 30 years in two of the country’s largest producing states, according to EarthDaily Agro. Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue for the next ten days before they begin to improve. Any extended stretch of the current conditions could begin to affect soybean yield and planting of the safrinha corn crop.
Argentina is set for its largest soybean acreage expansion in 15 years, as farmers are expected to increase planted acres by 7.5% from last year. Total planted area is anticipated to reach 17.7 million hectares (43.7 m. acres) according to the Rosario Board of Trade.
The wheat complex is trading higher across all three classes with the Chicago contracts leading the way higher. Buyers are likely leaning on the continued dry conditions in the US Plains and a potential rise in Black Sea aggression.
Reports of a missile attack on a vessel carrying Ukrainian grain in international waters has sparked a call for greater Western involvement in the Russia/Ukraine war. This could be leading to some short covering and an addition of war premium in the wheat complex.
Ukraine’s National Hydrometeorology Center stated that the soil moisture in 70% of the area expected to be planted with winter wheat is nearly depleted, with some areas having almost no moisture at depth up to one meter. This and the continued dryness in the US Plains could affect planting of winter wheat and draw down potential production.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was largely neutral for wheat, as expected. The 24/25 production estimate remained unchanged at 1.982 billion bushels, with the next update scheduled for the September 30 Small Grains Summary report. The US 24/25 wheat carryout was also left steady at 828 million bushels, though the market had anticipated an 8 mb reduction. Globally, 23/24 wheat ending stocks rose from 262.4 to 265.3 million metric tons, while the 24/25 figure held at 256.6 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
December corn continues to trade above the 50-day moving average on expectations that the USDA will slightly lower corn production in today’s WASDE report.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report are that the USDA will lower corn production from 15,174 mt to 15,076 mt and lower yield from 183.1 bpa to 182.4 bpa.
Rosario Grain Exchange views corn acres in Argentina for 24/25 falling 21%.
Strategie Grains lowered their EU corn production estimate from 60 mmt to 57.9 mmt due to drought conditions.
USDA reported an export sale of 118,626 mt of corn sold to unknown destination for the 24/25 crop year this morning.
Weekly corn export sales came in below expectations at 26 million bushels. Year-to-date commitments of 526 mb are 20% ahead of last year.
The soy-complex is trading higher at midday ahead of the WASDE report on fears that hurricane Francine will disrupt harvest in the Delta and Southwestern regions.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report range slightly but overall sentiment is that the USDA could raise soybean yield and increase 24/25 ending stocks.
The Chinese Ag Ministry has increased their 2023/24 soybean import estimate to 102 mmt, up from 98 mmt in their last forecast.
The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates that soybean acres in Argentina will grow roughly 7.5% to 17.7 million hectares.
Brazilian oilseed crushing group, Abiove, lowered their soybean production forecast from 153.20 mmt to 153 mmt. The group also raised soybean meal exports from 21.7 mmt to 22 mmt.
Weekly soybean export sales were in line with expectations at 54 million bushels. Year-to-date commitments of 523 million bushels are 14% below a year ago.
All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday due to drought in the Plains states and lower EU production.
Trade estimates for today’s WASDE report reflect very few changes to wheat but USDA could lower ending stocks due to increased export sales.
Strategie Grains has lowered their EU soft wheat production forecast by 2 mmt to 114.4 mmt.
Weekly wheat export sales came in at 17 million bushels, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments of 396 million bushels are 30% ahead of last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market has given up its gains from overnight and earlier in the session and is currently trading near the lower end of the day’s range near the 20-day moving average.
The EIA will be out with its weekly ethanol production numbers. The trade is looking for a slight bump in production from last week to 1.062 million barrels per day, with stocks estimated to come in at 23.338 million barrels, just under last week’s 23.354 m. bbl.
Tomorrow the USDA will release its September WASDE report. The trade estimates that 24/25 corn ending stocks will decline about 40 million bushels to 2.033 billion bushels from the August projection of 2.073 bb. Yield is expected to come in near 182.7 bpa versus 183.1 bpa last month.
Concerns remain regarding Chinese demand, as domestic prices continue to drop and a deflationary economy could reduce import demand. On the other hand, rising domestic prices in India could increase the chance of imports.
Soybeans, like corn, are trading well off their highs from earlier in the session with lower soybean oil weighing on prices despite higher crude and palm oils. Soybean meal is trading mid-range and in the green at midday.
US export premiums out of the Gulf of Mexico are currently running about 40 cents cheaper than Brazil, which should help increase sales. A concerning factor to US exports is the low water levels on the Mississippi River, which are currently at restrictive levels and could hamper shipments if the situation persists. On the positive side, there have been rumors of Chinese soybean purchases off the PNW for the October – November time slot.
Export premiums out of Brazil have been on the rise due to the continued dryness, which has slowed early planting and created logistics issues on the river system due to low water levels. Prolonged dryness in the region could also delay planting further, jeopardizing yields, and widening the US export window.
The USDA will release its updated WASDE numbers tomorrow. The trade is expecting a minor uptick in US ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year to 568 mb from 560 mb in August. Yield is expected to come in nearly unchanged from last month at 53.3 bpa.
The wheat complex is extending its gains again at midday, with the Chicago contracts showing higher prices for the third consecutive day.
Continued dry weather in the southern Plains and Black Sea region is adding support to prices. Expansion of drought in HRW areas and wet weather expected in SRW areas from hurricane Francine could affect the planting pace.
With reductions to the European and Black Sea wheat crops, US exports have picked up and are running 31% higher than last year. In tomorrow’s WASDE report, the trade is looking for 24/25 ending stocks to drop about 6 mb to 822 mb, from the August estimate of 828 mb.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market remains weaker at midday. The December contract is still floating around the 50-day moving average at 405 ¾.
Corn export inspections for the week ending September 5 came in at 836,413 mt. Year-to-date exports are at 468,626 mt, which is 26.3% below last year.
AgRural announced that 15% of Brazil’s corn crop is planted, down 2% from a year ago.
Weather over the next 10 days will bring limited rainfall in the Midwest. This could cause river transportation to worsen while seeing barge freight costs continue to rise.
The soy-complex trends weaker at midday. November soybeans have erased yesterday’s gain of 13 cents, dropping near the $10 price level.
Soybean exports for the week ending September 5 came in at 354,166 mt. Year-to-date inspections are at 262,457 mt which is 29.8% below last year.
China’s soybean imports for the month of August were a record high of 12.14 mmt.
Wheat remains higher at midday on reports of lower Russian wheat yields. December Chicago wheat is now back above the 50-day moving average and looking to make a push back above the September high of 582.
Wheat export inspections for the week ending September 5 came in at 586,687 mt. Year-to-date inspections are 6,35,683, which is 33.5% above last year.
The potential for a Fed rate cut next week, which could cause a lower dollar making US exports more competitive, is also helping to support the wheat market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
