The USDA reported an increase of 6.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 28.0 mb of 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.8 mb fell below the 41.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.225 bb.
At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates untouched but did signal that there may be a rate cut in September. Nevertheless, equity markets are trading lower this morning which may be spilling some weakness over into the grain complex.
The US Dollar Index is rebounding at midday, currently up about 0.20 at 104.30, and could be adding pressure to the grain complex.
From a technical perspective, corn futures are back into oversold territory by some metrics. This could mean that a bottom is near. However, futures can become and remain oversold during a strong downtrend.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 23.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 20.8 mb exceeded the 16.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
The forecast continues to show good rain potential over the next week or so for the eastern Corn Belt. This should keep yield prospects high but will also put weight on the shoulders of the market.
After a strong day yesterday and a positive start to this session, crude oil futures have turned negative and has taken soybean oil along for the ride, which is weighing on soybean futures.
The USDA reported an increase of 10.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 16.7 mb slightly exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
The weather forecast for the US northern Plains is mostly dry for the next week. This is not beneficial to the spring wheat crop, but the market does not seem to be responding much, as Minneapolis futures are mixed this morning.
Though it has been reported that their prices have firmed up recently, Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export front.
After a strong close yesterday, Matif wheat futures are down this morning, despite the worst-looking French crop in several years. This weakness is spilling into the US market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
December corn tested the 400 area this morning before breaking below that level at midday, potentially adding some technical weakness to futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 104,572 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The 6-10 day outlook appears cooler and wetter, which should maintain prospects for record yields in the eastern Corn Belt, offering resistance to the grain markets. The radar also showed storms this morning in parts of Iowa and Illinois.
Today’s ethanol production data showed an increase to 1,109 thousand barrels per day from 1,095 last week, up 4% from a year ago and well above the pace necessary to meet the USDA’s corn usage forecast.
The killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders has raised tensions in the Middle East, causing crude oil prices to surge. This rise is supporting soybean oil prices, and in turn, providing some underlying support to soybeans.
US soybeans are said to be competitive on the global market, but so far China has been largely absent in terms of US new crop purchases. However, there were recent sales to unknown destinations, which could be China, and there is anticipation that China will step up their purchases in the fall.
Tomorrow’s census crush data is anticipated to show June crush at 184.8 mb versus 174.6 mb last year. Additionally, soybean oil stocks are expected to fall about 6% from last year to 20.76 billion pounds.
French wheat production is reportedly down by 15% to 28%. This morning, Paris milling wheat futures are up slightly, but not enough to support US wheat.
Canada continues to experience dry weather in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which may affect spring wheat. This dryness could also impact North Dakota and Montana.
The US Dollar Index is sharply lower this morning, possibly due to anticipation that the Fed will signal an interest rate decrease in September at today’s FOMC meeting. In theory, this should support grains, but wheat does not appear to be responding currently.
India’s domestic wheat prices are said to be increasing, raising optimism that they may soon eliminate their wheat import tariff.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Good rains across eastern Iowa and most of Illinois have put some pressure on the grain markets, keeping yield prospects high. Over the next week or so, rain will favor the central and eastern CornBelt.
On yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, corn conditions improved 1% to 68% good to excellent. Additionally, 77% of the crop is silking and 33% is in the dough stage.
Corn inspections were good on yesterday’s report at 41 mb. Total exports this year are up 34% – this is despite Chinese imports down about 38%.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report indicated that soybean conditions fell 1% to 67% good to excellent, which remains the highest rating since 2020. Additionally, 77% of the crop is blooming and 44% is setting pods.
Both soybean oil and meal are lower this morning, alongside the crude oil market. This is putting some pressure on soybean futures, which are currently leading the grain complex lower.
There were rumors yesterday that China may be interested in purchasing US soybeans for Oct / Nov delivery. However, there have not been any new confirmed sales at this time.
According to the Crop Progress report, winter wheat harvest pace is slowing a bit. It advanced 6% this past week to 82% complete, however that pace remains above both last year’s and the 5-year average.
Spring wheat crop conditions declined 3% to 74% good to excellent. This was perhaps a little more than the trade was expecting, but this is still the highest rated crop since 2018.
Adding pressure to the US wheat market, September Paris milling wheat futures have closed lower five sessions in a row, and this morning it has traded both sides of unchanged; today could potentially mark the sixth lower close.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The market anticipates a slight decline in the corn crop rating in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Despite this, overall US crop conditions remain favorable, with expectations for record yields this fall. This outlook continues to limit any potential upside for grain prices.
The weather projections are somewhat in opposition, with the European model still calling for hotter and drier conditions, but the American model is more cool and wet.
The FOMC meeting is this week, but the Fed is not expected to make any changes to interest rates this time. However, it is anticipated there will be rate cuts in September.
Shifting weather forecasts have soybeans under pressure this morning. While it still looks mostly warm and dry for southwestern areas, rains are moving through the central Midwest and the extended outlook calls for more showers.
November soybeans gapped lower by a half-cent on the opening last night and have put in new lows so far this session. Lower meal and oil are not helping the situation.
There have been recent sales of US new crop soybeans to unknown destinations. This is thought to be China buying, as US beans are more competitive at these lower levels.
After a lower start this morning, wheat is trying to claw its way back. At the time of writing, both Chicago and Kansas City futures are holding just above unchanged, despite Matif wheat being in the red.
The fact that last week’s spring wheat tour found record yields will likely continue to add pressure to the market, especially for Minneapolis futures.
On a positive note, with the fall in prices, US Gulf SRW wheat FOB offers are said to be the cheapest in the world, which may stir up some additional export business.
The French wheat harvest is 41% complete, and the crop conditions are at an eight-year low of just 50% good to excellent.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today as weather models have turned slightly less hot over the next week. Temperatures were forecast to exceed 100 degrees in parts of the Midwest over the next week but are now expected in the 90’s which should further support growing conditions.
Despite today’s lower prices, futures are still on track for a weekly gain. December corn futures are up 8 ½ cents on the week at the time of writing, but at one point were up as much as 18 cents. Funds have been buying back a portion of their short position but may be taking this opportunity to sell the rally.
Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 36,000 contracts of corn in a departure from their selling which had brought them to a new record net short position.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower at midday with pressure from an improved weather forecast along with selling by both funds and producers. Soybean meal is giving back some of its gains from yesterday, but both soybeans and soybean meal are still higher on the week. Soybean oil is trading lower.
Yesterday, the USDA reported a sale of 246,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. This followed last week’s sale of 510,000 mt and total new crop soybean sales were over 830,000 mt last week. 723,000 mt of that amount were to unknown destinations which were potentially China.
In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the past 5 days after they reached a new record net short position previously. They were likely covering some of these shorts ahead of the key August time frame with a potentially drier forecast in some areas.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. Pressure in spring wheat has come from better-than-expected yields found on the wheat tour, and pressure in winter wheat is coming from the ongoing harvest.
In spring wheat, the entire crop was rated 77% good to excellent as of last Sunday. The Dakotas and Minnesota had the best ratings at over 80% good to excellent. On the other hand, the Canadian Prairies have been hot and dry with wildfires damaging large areas.
Yesterday, the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour was finished with the final 3-day total weighted average all-wheat yield estimate at a record high 53.8 bpa. The average spring wheat yield was estimated at 54.5 bpa. Last year, that number was 47.4 bpa.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday but has been unable to take out yesterday’s high so far at 423 ¾. This week’s move higher is likely due to funds exiting a portion of their short position which recently reached record levels.
This week’s export sales for corn showed an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 29.3 mb for 24/25. This was within trade expectations but was down 24% from the previous week for 23/24 and down 29% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 47.6 mb were above the 42.2 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates and destinations were primarily to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.
Weather remains mostly favorable with above normal rain in the 10-day forecast, but temperatures are expected to rise sharply in the Corn Belt. The heat is expected to be the worst in Kansas, South Dakota, and southern Iowa.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday despite sluggish export sales. November futures have taken out yesterday’s high by half a cent but are still meeting resistance at the 20-day moving average. Soybean meal is trading steadily higher while soybean oil is mixed with the front months lower and back months higher.
The USDA reported private export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 30.5 mb for 24/25. This was within the range of estimates, but sales for 23/24 were down 61% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 13.5 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way down as the winter wheat harvest continues and yields look promising. In Chicago wheat, prices are just 18 cents off their contract lows. Spring wheat crop ratings have been strong as well, adding to pressure.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 11.4 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was slightly below the average trade guess and was down 47% from the previous week and down 46% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 10.0 mb were below the 16.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Nigeria, and Japan.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher for the third consecutive day with the December contract breaking above the 20-day moving average as crop conditions slipped last week and the forecast shows dry and hot weather over the next week.
In the central US and Plains, temperatures are expected to reach as high as 113 degrees according to the GFS model while the EU model sees more moderate temperatures between 90 and 100 degrees. The Dakotas have been very hot as well, and silking has only advanced to 23% from 10% last week.
One crop scout has increased his estimate for the average US corn yield by 1.5 bpa to 181.5 bpa which would be a record. While this is possible, NASS will likely reduce the number of planted corn acres due to the flooding earlier in the season, which could offset the gain in yield.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher at midday which would make for the third consecutively higher day, but yesterday, prices met resistance at the 20-day moving average and retreated down from highs earlier in the day. Soybean meal is trading higher today while soybean oil is lower.
Soybean oil has been pressured this week by a sharp break in crude oil as well as palm oil which is trading lower today. Despite this, crush margins remain profitable and have driven domestic demand.
While US soybean exports have been slow this year with Brazil taking the majority of business and capturing 87% of China’s soybean imports, US soybeans are becoming more competitive, and there are expectations that China will step up to buy more US soybeans.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today and have picked up steam from earlier in the day when futures were trading lower. Chicago wheat is leading the way higher today while spring wheat has been the leader previously this week as the winter wheat crop is nearly harvested.
Wheat production in western Australia is set to improve by up to 12.3% this season following recent rains, and production is estimated at 10.5 mmt. The favorable conditions will also benefit the barley and canola crops.
Hot and dry conditions in the US northern plains as well as the Canadian prairies may begin to cause concern for spring wheat yields and could keep Minneapolis futures supported.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, corn conditions fell 1% to 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 61% of the crop is silking and 17% is in the dough stage.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 200,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts look warmer and drier for the US Corn Belt. This may be lending some support to futures prices.
Through the month of May, US ethanol exports were a record, and ethanol production was 5% above last year. Along with good demand, this may cause the USDA to increase exports and corn grind for ethanol on the next WASDE report.
According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, soybean conditions held steady at 68% good to excellent, with 65% of the crop blooming and 29% setting pods.
News outlets have reported that China cut interest rates on Monday in an effort to boost their economy. This may be a factor in this week’s rally so far, with anticipation that this could lead to more Chinese demand for US commodities.
Yesterday November soybeans closed well above the 10-day moving average for the first time since July 5. Today, they appear to have encountered resistance at the 21-day moving average (1084), a significant technical level that they haven’t closed above since May 28.
According to China’s customs data, they imported 11.1 mmt of soybeans in June, with Brazil fulfilling 9.7 mmt of that total, and the US only responsible for 1.3 mmt of those imports.
According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is now 76% harvested, up 5% from last week. The spring wheat crop condition held steady at 77% good to excellent, with 89% of that crop is headed.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower this morning following the sharp gains over the past couple of sessions. This may offer resistance to the US wheat market.
Hot and dry conditions in the US northern Plains as well as the Canadian prairies may begin to cause concern for spring wheat yields and could keep Minneapolis futures supported.
SovEcon is reported to have increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 3 mmt to 130.5 mmt. However, total wheat production was only raised 0.1 mmt to 84.3 mmt (for reference the USDA is at 83 mmt).
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher at midday but is largely unchanged over the past three weeks with prices finding support at 390 in the September contract and 403 in December. The short-term forecast has turned drier, but the extended forecast is not too concerning.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 133,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year. With prices having fallen, US corn is becoming more competitive on the global marketplace.
Brazil has halted all exports of chicken to China due to a poultry disease found on a commercial farm. If chicken production in Brazil is lowered, the country may have a larger amount of corn to export that would come out of feed demand.
Soybeans are trading sharply higher at midday as trade reacts to a drier short-term forecast as August approaches, which is a critical time for the crop. In addition, funds now hold a record large net short position and may be starting to offset a portion of that.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher today with meal leading the way up. Crush margins have improved significantly which has spurred demand as processors scoop up cheap cash soybeans.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 107 million tons in 2025 which would be up from the 97 mmt expected for 2024 according to Safras & Mercado. Production is expected to increase due to an increase in planted acreage.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with hard red spring wheat leading the way as temperatures in spring wheat areas in the northern Plains heat up and forecasts show drier conditions. Temperatures in Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to reach the 90’s this week.
As of July 16, funds sold 6,749 contracts of Chicago wheat, increasing their net short position to 75,886 contracts. Funds also sold 3,085 contracts of KC wheat, which increased their net short position to 43,896 contracts, and sold 1,638 Minneapolis wheat contracts, bringing that position to a net short of 25,361 contracts.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report, and trade is expecting that the winter wheat crop harvest will be called 80% complete. It is expected that spring wheat conditions will be called steady to slightly lower.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Global equity markets are on the defensive this morning, which may be tied to a global tech outage that has affected banks, airlines, government operations, and more. However, this does not appear to be weighing on the grain complex, as corn, soybeans, and wheat are all in positive territory.
Basis levels for corn (and soybeans) in Brazil are said to be well above where they were at this time a year ago. In theory, this should help US exports.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts show above normal precipitation for much of the eastern corn belt. This should keep yield prospects high and may continue to limit upside movement for corn futures.
The Black Sea area remains hot and dry along with parts of eastern Europe. This may curb corn yields and lend support to US futures.
In a flash sale today, the USDA reported private exporters sold 105,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
US soybean export values for September are said to now be below that of Brazil, which may stimulate buying interest. Rumors that China is looking to purchase US soybeans are increasing.
Soybean oil is higher this morning and is receiving support from a higher palm oil market. Additionally, canola and rapeseed prices are increasing due to drought in eastern Europe. Soybean meal is also trading higher and is, along with soybean oil, offering a boost to soybean futures.
US new crop soybean sales, at 28 million bushels, remain well below last year’s pace of 69 million bushels, indicating that the US has some catching up to do. Over the past year, Brazil has reportedly fulfilled 70% of Chinese soybean purchases.
Wheat is the upside leader in the grain complex at midday, with double digit gains in all three classes. Support is coming from sharply higher Matif wheat futures, which have now filled the chart gap left on Monday.
The forecast for the US northern plains states looks warmer and drier, which is raising some concern about the spring wheat crop and is helping Minneapolis futures to rally this morning.
The French wheat crop condition declined by 5% last week to 52% good to excellent. Additionally, 14% of the crop is now harvested. For reference, their crop was rated 80% good to excellent at this time last year.
Russian wheat export values yesterday are reportedly as low as $217 to $218 per mt FOB. As they continue to be the global export leader, it may limit upside movement of futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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