In this week’s export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 4.7 mb of corn export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 31.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.7 mb exceeded the 38.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.250 bb.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service lowered their estimate of Ukrainian corn exports to just under 22 mb. Drought conditions may be taking a toll on crops in both Ukraine and southern Russia. Interestingly, this estimate is about 10% below the official USDA figure from Monday’s WASDE report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their estimate of Argentine corn production by roughly 1.5 mmt to 49 mmt. This is more in line with the USDA at 50 mmt but is above the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 46.5 mmt.
Today’s weekly export sales report showed an increase of 8.1 mb in soybean export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 49.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 15.8 mb fell below the 16.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
NOPA crush data will be released later this morning for the month of July, which is expected to be a record. The average trade guess comes in at 182 mb, which would be above the 176 mb crushed in June, and the 173.3 mb from July of last year.
Good rains are moving across the central US today, which will likely be reflected in reductions to drought readings. However, once this system moves through, the extended outlook shows little moisture for the remainder of August.
In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and a decrease of 2.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb exceeded the 16.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures have yet to stop the bleeding, with September currently trading lower for the fourth consecutive session. The US Dollar Index is also higher this morning. All three classes of US wheat appear to be somewhat ignoring these bearish factors, as they have traded both sides of unchanged this morning.
September Chicago wheat approached the 40-day moving average (551) overnight before backing off. It has not traded above this average since early June. This may act as near-term resistance, but a rally above this level would look technically strong.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
This morning’s CPI data revealed a 2.9% annual increase in consumer prices for July, marking the first time inflation has dipped below 3% since 2021. This slowdown in inflation strengthens the case for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed in September.
On a bullish note, US corn export FOB values are currently the world’s cheapest, beating out both Brazil and Ukraine for the next few months, which may lead to additional export business.
Rain is expected over the Corn Belt over the next few days, and parts of Indiana and Illinois could see 2-3 inches.
Ukraine’s corn crop is projected to reach around 24-25 mmt, down from 32.5 mmt last year. With dry weather expected to persist for the next 10 days, the crop may face further damage.
Soybeans have rebounded this morning after putting in a new contract low overnight at 955 ¼ in the November contract. However, this may be a “dead cat bounce,” as there’s little fundamental change since the release of the WASDE report.
News outlets are reporting that California has proposed limiting the use of soybean and canola oil in biodiesel production, in favor of used cooking oil and other feedstocks. The proposal would not be enacted until 2028, so it does not appear to be affecting the market much today but could be a long term bearish factor.
US soybean FOB export values are said to be at a 60-70 cent discount to Brazil, which should allow for more export business and keep the US as the world’s top soybean supplier for the next few months. Additionally, Chinese demand for US soybeans is expected to increase.
US wheat is attempting to rally today, despite another day in the red for Paris milling wheat futures. September Matif wheat put in another near term low today after leaving another small (0.50 Euro) gap on the chart at the opening of the session.
Russian wheat cash values are said to have been weaker, which may pressure global wheat markets despite wet conditions in their spring wheat growing regions that may affect quality, as rains are expected to continue over the next 10 days in those areas.
Despite lowering US spring wheat production on the WASDE report, the USDA has spring wheat for major producers North Dakota and Minnesota rated 81% and 89% good to excellent, respectively.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn rebounded yesterday after the WASDE report but has since given those gains. This is likely due to the still rather large carryout number, as well as pressure from lower soybean and wheat futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 137,160 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed corn condition remained steady at 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 94% of the crop is silking, 60% of the crop is in the dough stage, and 18% of the crop is dented.
News reports suggest that up to six million acres of Chinese crops were affected by flooding, however, it is currently unknown what the extent of the damage is.
Following a bearish USDA report yesterday, soybeans are sharply lower at midday, with the November contract breaking below the previous low of 964 ¼. Higher yield and acreage estimates have led to the largest carryout in six years, now projected at 560 million bushels.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
In yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, soybean conditions remained steady at 68% good to excellent. Additionally, 91% of the crop is blooming, and 72% of the crop is setting pods.
Palm and crude oil are lower this morning, which is pressuring soybean oil. Soybean meal is also down, with reports of high Chinese supply further weighing on the market. The declines in product values are offering little support to soybean futures.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that 93% of the USDA winter wheat crop has been harvested. However, spring wheat conditions declined by 2% from the previous week, with 72% now rated as good to excellent. Additionally, 18% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested.
Yesterday’s WASDE report unexpectedly lowered wheat ending stocks by 28 mb, along with a reduction in spring wheat production. This could provide some support to Minneapolis futures compared to Chicago and Kansas City.
After leaving a gap lower on charts yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again today, adding to pressure in the US market.
Said to be between $220 to $225 per mt FOB through December, Russian wheat export values continue to remain cheap on the global market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales of 165,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
There may be a lot of outside market influence this week with PPI, CPI, and retail sales reports all being released.
Energy prices are higher this morning on fears that Iran may retaliate against Israel. This should be supportive to ethanol and biofuels.
Private exporters reported sales of 300,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of that total, 100,000 mt is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and the remainder during the 24/25 marketing year.
Argentine soybean processor workers have been striking for a week at this point. This has delayed vessels set to ship soybean meal and oil, which in theory should support the US market.
Brazilian soybean basis levels are reported to be firming up, which should help the US to garner some global export business.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower on Monday, which is weighing on US futures this morning. This is despite talk that the French crop may see a 25% drop in production compared to a year ago.
Showers are expected this week in the northern US and Canadian prairies. However, it may be too little too late to make much of a difference at this point for the spring wheat.
As of last Tuesday, managed funds hold a combined net short position of about 107,000 contracts of Chicago and Kansas City wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday, and the December contract has posted a new contract low as trade anticipates a bearish reaction to Monday’s WASDE report. Estimates are calling for an increase in yields, but whether or not changes in acreage are expected is up for debate.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show a decrease in South American corn production, but the USDA has held estimates above the country’s own exchanges’ estimates. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has maintained their estimate for Argentinian production at 46.5 mmt, and harvest is estimated at 96.3% complete.
Yesterday, the export sales report said that 19.1 mb of old crop and 9.8 mb of new crop corn were sold for export last week. Mexico was named the largest buyer of old crop corn. Last week’s export shipments of 51.3 mb were 15.3 mb more than needed to meet the USDA’s export estimates.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday after a slew of export sales were reported this morning. Trade is still expecting Monday’s WASDE report to hold higher yield estimates which could be bearish. Soybean meal is trading lower whole soybean oil is following crude oil higher.
This morning, the USDA reported multiple export sales. They reported that 132,000 mt of soybeans were sold to China for 24/25, 100,000 mt of soybean meal were sold to Colombia, and 212,000 mt of soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations.
In Argentina, workers at a soybean crush plant have extended their strike to a third day as a result of insufficient wages. Shipments have been delayed for the biggest soybean meal and oil exporter just as harvest is wrapping up.
Wheat is trading higher across the board at midday and has potentially put in a temporary bottom. Support has come from global weather issues and many countries making large tenders to buy wheat and shore up supplies.
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC reportedly purchased between 600,000 to 700,000 mt of milling wheat in an international tender, and Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries bought a total of 83,445 mt of food quality wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US in a regular tender.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 10.1 million bushels in wheat sales for 24/25 and 4.1 mb for 25/26. This was down 4% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales commitments are up 34% from a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday, with December futures breaking just below the 4-dollar mark. Today’s export sales were decent, but demand has been sluggish overall and does not lend well to the anticipation of a large crop incoming.
Today, the USDA reported an increase of 19.1 million bushels of corn export sales for 23/24 and 9.8 mb for 24/25. This was up significantly from the previous week and up 32% from the previous 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 51.3 mb were well above the 36.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate and put export shipments up 33% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday, with the September contract falling below 10 dollars as the market anticipates a bearish WASDE report on Monday. US yields are expected to increase slightly, while South American production is projected to decline. Both soybean meal and oil are also trading lower today.
Today’s export sales report was ok with the USDA reporting an increase of 12.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 36.2 mb for 24/25. This was up 2% from last week and up 66% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 12.9 mb of soybeans were below the 15.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Germany.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. Before yesterday’s lower close, wheat had been on a winning streak with 5 consecutively higher closes. There is some anticipation of smaller new crop supplies with adverse weather in Europe and the Black Sea region.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 10.1 million bushels in wheat sales for 24/25 and 4.1 mb for 25/26. This was down 4% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales commitments are up 34% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 18.2 mb were above the 16.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 825 mb for 24/25. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Italy, and Panama.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday, but December futures have held above the 4-dollar level this week after dipping below it last week. Weather conditions are favorable, and the trade likely expects a bearish WASDE report on Monday, with an anticipated increase in yields.
Later today, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum report, and it is expected that ethanol production will be slightly lower this week after last week’s record production of 1.109 million bpd. With prices so low, domestic demand has been firm.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday the 12th are expecting the national corn yield to rise to 182.2 bpa which would compare to last month’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. Production is estimated at 151.124 mt, which would be slightly higher than last month’s 151 mmt.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday alongside corn but have recovered slightly from earlier morning lows. The trade expects higher soybean yields similar to corn, and weather remains bearish in the near term. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is following crude oil higher.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen an uptick in export demand. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday have the average soybean yield improving to 52.5 bpa which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to be higher as well from last month.
Wheat has turned around from earlier this morning and now all three classes are trading lower. The dollar has been recovering since Monday’s stock market set back which could be putting some pressure on the commodity.
The average trade guess for 24/25 US wheat ending stocks is 859 mb, which would be up slightly from last month’s USDA 856 mb projection. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt. All wheat production in the US is expected to increase from last month’s estimate.
In the US, rain is forecast to fall throughout the northern Plains, which should bring relief to the spring wheat crop. The EU and German wheat crops are under stress from too much rain, with the French wheat crop is expected to see yields fall 20% below the 5-year average.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mixed at midday after yesterday’s stock market crash may have brought buyers into the oversold grain markets, which ended the day higher. At this point, stocks are rebounding, which likely has shifted focus back to crop ratings and weather.
Corn prices are not significantly responding to yesterday’s Crop Progress report, in which the good to excellent rating slipped by one point to 67%. 88% of the crop is silking, compared to 77% last week and 46% of the crop is in the dough stage, compared to last week’s 30%. 7% of the crop is dented, versus the 5-year average of 5%.
Last week, StoneX raised their corn yield estimate, and now Ag Resource has increased their estimate for corn yields to 180.5 bpa, which would be a record. They are also estimating production at 14.883 billion bushels which would be below the last USDA estimate. This could likely be attributed to the wet conditions earlier this season.
Soybeans are trading lower at midday after yesterday’s recovery and Crop Progress report, which showed conditions improving despite weather which has been slightly drier this past week in some areas. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed soybean ratings improving by 1 point to 68% good to excellent despite the recent dryness. 59% of the crop is setting pods, compared to 44% last week, and 86% of the crop is blooming, versus 77% last week.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen export demand pick up. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
All three wheat classes are now trading higher after reversing from earlier morning lows, with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. Since last Friday when the stock market began to drop, the US Dollar fell sharply as well, which makes US wheat more competitive globally and may be giving prices some support.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings unchanged at 74% and the crop 6% harvested, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 9%. 97% of the spring wheat crop is headed. In winter wheat, 88% of the crop is harvested, compared to 82% last week and the 5-year average of 86%.
In the Black Sea region, heat, dryness, and in some areas, frost, is damaging the crop and has lead to lower production. The EU is expecting lower production as well, and between the two, anywhere from 20 to 24 mmt of wheat could be lost.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday and has come back significantly from the lows earlier this morning which saw December futures below 4 dollars. The stock market is trading significantly lower, and it is possible that some money from equities is flowing into grains.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds bought back 23,453 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 295,096 contracts. This is the third week in a row that they have bought contracts back, even though prices have moved lower.
US corn is now the cheapest on the global market and both export demand and domestic demand are running ahead of expectations. Unfortunately, this improved demand has not translated into higher prices.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday after reversing from the earlier morning lows, despite lower prices in both soybean meal and oil. Prices were down much more sharply this morning after the Japanese Nikkei fell by over 12% yesterday which was the biggest single day drop on record.
Weather forecasts are mixed with Illinois and Iowa having turned slightly drier over the next 7 days, but temperatures are expected to be cooler which should offset the lack of rain. The northwestern Plains continue to receive too much rain.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen export demand pick up. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds were sellers of 14,932 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 178,591 contracts.
Wheat began the day sharply lower across the board but has recovered and prices are now mixed. The US Dollar is sharply lower today which makes wheat more attractive for export.
In the Black Sea region, heat, dryness, and in some areas, frost, is damaging the crop and could lead to lower production. The EU is expecting lower production as well, and between the two, anywhere from 20 to 24 mmt of wheat could be lost.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 2,432 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 77,616 contracts. In KC wheat, they bought back 674 contracts which brings their net short position to 40,192 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Equity markets are sharply lower this morning, with the Dow down over 700 points at the time of writing. But grains are rebuffing this weakness with positive trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat.
The outlook for the next seven days has turned a bit drier for Illinois and Iowa, although it has rain in the forecast for some of the already wet areas of Minnesota.
The recent increase in Middle East tensions led to a rise in crude oil prices on Wednesday. However, all of those gains have been given up in subsequent trading. This weakness may limit the upside potential for grain futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
The extended weather outlook is a bit drier than it was earlier this week, and may be offering some support to soybeans this morning. However, soybean conditions remain historically high so August weather may need to be more extreme to cause a significant rally in beans.
Palm oil futures surged on Friday, and global rapeseed supplies are declining, which should support soybean oil prices. However, US soybean oil futures are down this morning, likely due to the lower crude oil market.
The US Dollar Index is seeing a huge drop this morning. At the time of writing it is down about 1.20 to 103.20. This is the lowest level since late March, and may be offering some support to wheat (and the grain complex) today.
Argentina is experiencing dry weather that may adversely affect their wheat crop. Reportedly in July, they experienced 30% less rainfall than normal. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentine wheat was rated just 31% good to excellent last week, down from 39% the week prior.
Russian wheat prices have been firming up a bit, potentially lending support to prices. However, their FOB export values are still the world’s cheapest at $223 per metric ton.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
