The corn market has firmed since this morning’s lows and is trading a little higher with support from a positive turnaround in wheat and the USDA’s report of a flash sale of corn to Mexico.
The USDA reported another private export sale to Mexico for 155,000 mt of corn to be delivered during the 24/25 marketing year.
Midwest weather is expected to remain warm and dry this week, which should keep the window wide open for harvest, potentially adding harvest pressure to prices. The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report this afternoon. The trade is expecting harvest progress to be 38% complete.
The soybean market is trading lower, though towards the upper end of its range at midday as prices chop sideways following this morning’s reopening of the trading session. Soybean meal is trading about 2% lower and weighing on soybeans, while bean oil is trading higher as it follows garners support from higher crude and palm oil.
The USDA also reported a flash private soybean export sale to unknown destinations totaling 172,500 metric tons.
The weakness in the soybean complex could in part be due to the wide open harvest window for the US Midwest, and associated hedge pressure. The trade expects harvest to be 50% complete in this afternoon’s crop USDA crop progress report.
Another potentially bearish factor in today’s trade could also be the South American weather forecasts that show the anticipated return of the monsoonal rains later this week, which should aide in moving soybean planting along in Brazil.
The wheat complex is trading mid-range at midday as all three major classes reverse from overnight lows.
SovEcon recently raised its estimate of the Ukrainian wheat crop to 21.8 mmt. The firm also raised the country’s export forecast due to the larger crop and increased EU demand.
While Russian wheat export prices have been on the rise lately due to dryness and a potentially shrinking crop, and allowed US and world prices to rise, they remain the low cost leader in that export market, keeping them competitive to buyers.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is continuing its slide lower following yesterday’s weak close, as end of week profit-taking and hedge pressure weigh on prices.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 198,000 mt of corn to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Potentially adding support to US corn exports is the fact that the French corn harvest is reportedly only 2% complete according to FranceAgriMer, significantly behind the 5-year average of 26% due largely to wet conditions.
Corn planting in Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, is 13.7% complete, although progress may slow as dry conditions are expected over the next 10 days before the next round of precipitation is expected.
The soybean market has turned lower at midday after rebounding in the overnight session from yesterday’s losses. Both soybean meal and oil have also turned lower, adding downward pressure on soybeans along with hedge pressure ahead of the weekend.
The US dockworker strike was suspended following a temporary agreement that was reached overnight. This tentative agreement will be in force through January 15.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 116,000 mt of soybeans to be delivered to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
US Midwest weather is expected to stay mostly dry and conducive to harvest for the next week or two. Meanwhile, the dry conditions in Brazil are still expected to turn more seasonable late next week with the potential arrival of monsoon rains.
The wheat complex is currently trading lower across all three classes as traders continue to book profits ahead of the weekend after this week’s rally ran into overhead resistance at key moving averages.
For now, it appears that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have lessened following the escalation of the war with Israel. The lack of further escalation is likely leading some traders to cover long positions ahead of the weekend. These positions, entered earlier in the week, pushed December Chicago and KC contracts to their respective 200-day moving averages, while December Minneapolis reached its 100-day ma
Earlier this week, Egypt cemented a deal to purchase 3.1 million metric tons of wheat from the Black Sea region, presumably Russia. Since that time, Egypt has also announced plans to reduce its wheat consumption by substituting corn or sorghum flour in its subsidized bread in a 1:4 ratio, beginning in April 2025.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is weaker at midday on rain prospects in South America and favorable conditions for US harvest.
Weekly export sales came in above expectations at 66 mb. Year-to-date commitments are 14% ahead of last year at 647 mb.
Yesterday’s EIA data showed corn used for ethanol at 102.41 mb which is still behind the average needed pace of 104.55 mb to hit the USDA’s corn usage number.
Soybeans are getting pulled lower by meal after a delay in the EU’s deforestation policy was announced, trending lower at midday on chances of rain in Brazil and weaker meal prices.
Weekly export sales came in at 53 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 696 mb, 3% ahead of last year.
Market participants continue to monitor the weather forecast in South America which shows rainfall in Brazil next week.
All three wheat contracts are continuing to see a pullback at midday after December contracts tested the 200-day moving average.
Weekly export sales came in above expectations at 16 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 427 mb, up 23% from last year.
SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat export forecast from 48.1 mmt to 47.6 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading at the upper end of its nearly 6-cent range with the help of a strong wheat market and higher crude oil.
Monthly ethanol production data released by the USDA for the month of August indicated that 525 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production, 7% more than in August of 2023.
StoneX released its latest estimates for the US corn crop, putting production at 15.222 billion bushels, with an estimated yield of 184 bpa, up from September’s estimate of 182.9 bpa. For reference the USDA’s current projected yield sits at 183.6 bpa.
Funds were very active in the corn market yesterday, buying a whopping estimated 20,000 corn futures contracts, as they continue to cover their net short positions. At the close of yesterday’s business, they were estimated to be net short 72,000 contracts.
The soybean complex is currently mixed, with soybeans trading lower after giving up overnight gains due to sharply lower soybean meal, as forecasts indicate much-needed rain in Argentina. Meanwhile, bean oil is trading sharply higher, supported by gains in crude oil and Malaysian palm oil.
Monthly crush data released by the USDA showed total August crush at 168 million bushels, 13.3% less than in July, and 0.9% less than the same time last year and in line with expectations. The report also showed year over year crude bean oil stocks declining 10.8%.
StoneX increased its estimate of US soybean production to 4.613 billion bushels, with a yield of 53.5 bpa from 4.575 billion in September.
The wheat complex is currently higher across all three classes, led by the KC contracts, as fresh buyers enter the market. Traders are also likely continuing to cover existing short positions due to concerns that the Middle East conflict is broadening, following yesterday’s Iranian attacks on Israel.
An Australian crop analyst estimates that Australia has lost over 1 million tons of wheat to frost and dry conditions in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, and estimates production could be as low as 27 million metric tons.
North African countries could be increasing their wheat imports from last year by 700k metric tons to 31.9 million metric tons for the 24/25 season, according to world wheat trader Soufflet Group.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn trades higher at midday after getting a boost from the wheat market. December corn has now traded at its highest level since June 28.
USDA’s September 1 stocks were below expectations at 1,760 mb but still above last year’s 1,360 mb number.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings falling slightly to 64% good-to-excellent. 21% of the corn crop is harvested compared to the 5-year average of 18%.
The longshoremen strike has begun with ports affected from Maine down to Texas. This could cause some bearish reaction if the US can’t move grain.
Soybeans are weaker at midday on South American weather which shows rain in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina.
USDA’s September 1 Stocks report was below expectations at 342 mb but above last year’s 264 mb.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings unchanged from last week at 64% good-to-excellent. Harvest jumped higher to 26% from 13% last week.
China will be closed this week for their Golden Week holiday which could result in lower prices if no export sales are announced.
All three wheat contracts are higher at midday on drier weather outlook for US Plains.
USDA’s September 1 Stocks report showed wheat stocks at 1,986 mb which was slightly above expectations and 12% higher from a year ago.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the winter wheat crop as 39% planted, up from 25% last week.
Growing war tensions in the Middle East should be supportive of wheat prices after Israeli troops entered Lebanon over the weekend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts are mostly warm and dry for the US Corn Belt. This should allow harvest progress to accelerate over the coming weeks.
At midday, corn futures are neutral to slightly lower as traders await the Quarterly Stocks report. But in addition, it is also month and quarter end; this could mean that outside markets may also have some influence today as managed money funds square up their positions.
There is still concern about a potential strike that could affect US ports along the East Coast and Gulf if it begins on Tuesday.
According to SovEcon, Russia’s corn crop is expected to amount to 12 mmt, which would be down 30% from last year. In addition, last week Russia’s ag minister increased the corn export tax by 10%.
Private exporters reported sales of 116,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
Soybean planting in Brazil was said to be slow over the weekend, with very scattered rains across the country. However, there are better chances for solid rain in the second week of the forecast with more frequent showers predicted for the dry areas of central Brazil.
China’s Golden Week holiday begins tomorrow, which could slow down demand as they are not expected to purchase US commodities during this time.
A lower palm oil market this morning is weighing on US soybean oil and soybean futures. However, crude oil is positive at midday, which should offer some support.
It remains relatively dry in the US southern Plains, as well as the west-central Midwest. This could cause some planting delays for the 2025 hard red winter wheat crop.
Currently it is still too dry in the Black Sea region. However, some weather forecasters are predicting that current rains in Europe will move east, bringing relief to the drier areas of Russia.
Russian wheat export values continue to remain cheap at $217 per mt FOB. This may keep a lid on US futures, as US wheat exports remain uncompetitive with Russia.
India’s domestic wheat prices are said to have hit a new high, around the equivalent of $9.20 per bushel, and there continues to be talk that they will need to import wheat this year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is currently trading near the top end of its 6 ½ cent range as it attempts to negate the bearish reversal that was posted yesterday. Since Tuesday December corn has found support below the market between the 10 and 20-day moving averages, providing a potential base for further gains.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange anticipates that Argentine corn planting will cover 6.3 million hectares for the 24/25 season, with a projected harvest of 47 million metric tons. However, they warned that these figures may be revised downward if crucial areas don’t receive rainfall in the coming weeks.
Managed funds actively covered short positions in the corn market yesterday, buying back an estimated 7,000 net short contracts. This brings their estimated net short position to around 110,000 corn futures contracts. The CFTC will release updated position data later today, reflecting activity as of Tuesday, September 24.
USDA data released yesterday showed weak weekly corn export sales for the week ending September 19, totaling only 535,000 metric tons. This figure falls short of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual projections. Currently, total export sales are at 25% of the USDA’s target, compared to the 5-year average of 28% by this time of year.
On Monday, the USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. A Bloomberg survey suggests that US corn stocks as of September 1 are expected to reach 1.846 billion bushels, a 36% increase from the previous year’s 1.360 billion bushels.
Soybeans are currently trading a little higher this morning, near the top end of their range with support from sharply higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is trading lower, but well off its lows, as it follows through on yesterday’s bearish key reversal.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for the 24/25 marketing year.
For the week ending September 19, weekly soybean export sales slightly exceeded expectations, totaling 1.575 million metric tons. Currently, total commitments are at 35% of the USDA’s target, compared to the 5-year average of 42% for this period.
Managed funds were active sellers in the soybean market yesterday, offloading an estimated 3,000 contracts. This positions managed funds with an estimated net short of about 91,000 soybean futures contracts. The CFTC will provide updated positions later today, reflecting data as of Tuesday, September 24.
The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, set for release on Monday, has the potential to reveal unexpected figures. Market expectations place soybean stocks at 347 million bushels, a 31% increase from the 264 million bushels reported in September 2023.
The wheat complex continues to trade lower across all three classes at midday, extending yesterday’s losses as traders adjust their positions ahead of the weekend, month-end, and Monday’s release of the Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains report.
Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has revised its 24/25 grain production forecast down to 124.5 million metric tons from 125 million metric tons. This includes 81.8 mmt of wheat, reduced from the previous estimate of 82.2 mmt. Despite this adjustment, the agency is maintaining its wheat export forecast of 44 mmt for the 24/25 season.
Weekly wheat export sales, reported for the week ending September 19, fell significantly short of expectations at 159,000 metric tons—roughly half of the weekly volume needed to meet the USDA’s export goals. Nevertheless, total sales are slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace for this time of year.
Managed funds sold an estimated 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts yesterday, bringing their short position to around 19,000 contracts. The CFTC will release updated position data later this afternoon, reflecting activity as of Tuesday, September 24.
The USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports are scheduled for release on Monday. According to a Bloomberg survey, US wheat stocks as of September 1 are projected to be 1.992 billion bushels, a 13% increase from last year. Wheat production for 24/25 is estimated at 1.983 billion bushels.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn rebounds higher at midday on a stronger wheat market.
Corn export sales came in below expectations at 21 mb. Year to date commitments are 17% ahead of last year at 580 mb.
Rainfall continues to be beneficial in the Southern portion of Brazil, but the Central region continues to be hot and dry.
Rosario grain exchange estimate that Argentine corn acres are down 21% with BAGE estimating total production now at 47 mmt versus 49.16 mmt previously.
Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday on dry South America weather and talks of increased China interest ahead of the country’s Golden Week holiday.
Soybean export sales were in line with expectations at 58 mb. Year to date commitments are currently 1% behind last year’s pace at 646 mb.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) estimates a larger Argentine soybean crop at 52 mmt versus 50.5 mmt last year.
China is considering a stimulus package to help aid its sluggish economy which is offering some additional support to soybeans as well as outside markets.
All three wheat classes continue to trend higher at midday on reports of tighter global supplies for exporters and short covering by the funds.
Wheat export sales came in at a marketing year low of 6 mb. However, year to date commitments continue to outpace last year by 22% at 411 mb.
Dryness is expected to return to the US plains over the next few weeks which could affect sowing conditions.
IKAR lowered their Russian wheat production forecast from 82.2 mmt to 81.8 mmt due to dry conditions in the region.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading off its lows from earlier this morning as it finds support near the 10-day moving average and from firmer soybeans and wheat.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s Ethanol Production report indicated that for the week ending September 20, daily production averaged 0.994 million barrels, down 5.2% from last week, but ahead of the 5-year average of 0.928 m. barrels per day. Ethanol stocks came in at 23.524 million barrels, a new high for this week of the year. Total corn used for production was estimated at 100.29 million bushels, below the 104.5 mb needed to reach the USDA’s goal.
The USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report next week, on Monday. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.
Soybeans have rebounded from their early morning lows and are trading higher at midday, supported by a sharp rise in soybean oil, which is extending yesterday’s gains following news of proposed legislation to protect US biofuel feedstock use.
A new bill, the Farmers First Fuel Incentives Act, has been introduced in Congress. The bill aims to ensure that only biofuels made from domestic feedstocks qualify for the 45Z tax credit. According to Senator Roger Marshall, this legislation would also extend the current 2-year credit to 10 years.
There have been rumors that China has purchased between 12-16 cargoes of US soybeans earlier this week. So far, there has not been any confirmation in the USDA’s daily reporting system.
Next week, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. A Bloomberg survey shows the average market expectation for US soybean stocks as of September 1 to be 347 million bushels, a 31% increase from last year’s 264 million bushels.
The wheat complex is trading mostly higher across all three classes with Chicago and KC leading the way, as the December contracts of both classes rebound off moving average support just below the market and consolidate.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the July 2024 to June 2025 season have reached approximately 9.8 million metric tons as of September 25, according to their agricultural ministry. Of this, 5.6 mmt is wheat. In addition, Ukrainian farm associations and the government have agreed to cap wheat exports at 16.2 mmt.
A Chinese state planner announced that China has set the maximum wheat purchase volume from domestic producers at 37 million metric tons for 2025 and 2026. The minimum purchase price will remain at 119 yuan ($16.92) per 50 kilograms, the same as the price established for 2024.
A Bloomberg survey projects that the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, due next week, will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With carryover weakness from the wheat complex, the corn market is currently trading toward the lower end of its almost 6-cent range following a rally that failed to hold above the 416 resistance level.
The USDA’s Crop Progress report issued yesterday afternoon showed that 65% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and 1% better than trade expectations. The report also indicated that 61% of the crop is mature and 14% harvested, up from 45% and 9% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers in yesterday’s trade, buying a massive estimated 25,000 corn futures contracts. The short covering is thought to stem from hot and dry conditions in Brazil. Managed funds are now estimated to be short about 121,000 corn futures contracts.
Any delay in Brazil’s soybean planting pace, could very well push back Brazil’s larger, mostly exported, safrinha corn crop, which is planted after soybean harvest. Currently, Brazil’s first corn crop is reportedly 26% planted in the country’s Center-South region, according to AgRural. This compares to 19% complete last week, and 25% last year.
November soybeans continued to build on yesterday’s buying strength, trading to their highest level since late July. While still up on the day, soybean prices have eased off those highs as meal retreated to trade near unchanged. Soybean oil remains sharply higher, currently showing a 111-point gain in the December contract.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report that showed soybean conditions remained steady in the good to excellent categories at 64%. The report also indicated that 65% of the crop is dropping leaves, and 13% of the crop is harvested, up from 6% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers on yesterday’s rally, due to the dryness in South America, buying a whopping estimated 21,500 soybean futures contracts. As of this morning, they were estimated to be net short just over 100,000 contracts.
AgRural reported that it estimates Brazil’s soybean planting to be 0.9% complete. While this is higher than last week’s 0.1%, it remains behind last year’s pace of 1.9% complete. The delay largely stems from the hot and dry weather in the key state of Mato Grosso, in which farmers are waiting for more favorable conditions to develop in the next couple of weeks.
After briefly trading higher on the day at the sessions reopening from this morning’s pause, the wheat complex has retreated and is now lower on the day across all three classes in sympathy with lower Paris Milling wheat.
The USDA reported in its weekly Crop Progress report that spring wheat harvest is largely done at 96% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 95%. The report also noted that the winter wheat crop is 25% planted, just behind the average trade estimate of 27%, but 3% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 24%.
Managed funds were active in Chicago wheat yesterday, but not to the extent of corn or soybeans. It’s estimated that they bought 7,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, which brings their estimated net short down to 17,000 contracts.
Interfax has reported that the Russian Ag Ministry may adjust its projection of the country’s 2024 grain crop by the end of this week. Currently, Russia has harvested 105.9 million metric tons of grain, which includes 77.7 mmt of wheat. SovEcon recently estimated the Russian wheat crop to be 82.9 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
