The corn market is trading higher at midday as the December contract trades back above the 50-day moving average, with support coming from both higher wheat and soybeans.
Export demand continues to remain strong with the USDA reporting flash sales by private exporters totaling nearly 500,000 mt tons this morning for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 169,926 mt were for Mexico, 130,000 mt for South Korea, and 198,192 were for unknown destinations.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed funds sold a whopping 63,259 corn futures contracts in the week ending Tuesday, Oct. 15, ending their buying spree over the last few weeks. As of Oct. 15, managed funds were net short just under 87,000 contracts of corn.
AgRural reported that corn planting in Brazil’s center-south region stands at 48% complete, compared to 46% last year.
Soybeans held Thursday and Friday’s lows and are trading at the upper end of the daily range at midday as they attempt to recover from oversold conditions as soybean harvest begins to wind down. Soybean meal and oil are both higher, with bean oil leading the way.
The USDA reported flash export sales by private exporters totaling 380,000 metric tons to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report released Friday showed that managed funds were net short 40,341 soybean futures contracts as of Tuesday, Oct. 15 after net selling 18,543 contracts of soybeans.
AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean crop is 18% planted, which compares to 30% complete by this time last year. Planting in the key state of Mato Grosso is reported to be 25% complete, versus 60% last year, and the 5-year average of 44%.
The wheat complex is trading higher across the board today, though off the daily highs, as all three futures classes hold support above Friday’s lows and maintain overnight strength.
Managed funds were less active in the wheat than they were in the corn and soybean markets. As of Tuesday, Oct. 15, they bought a net 3,436 Chicago wheat futures contracts, bringing their net short position in Chicago wheat down to 26,013 contracts.
Growing conditions in much of the southern Plains remain dry and showers that moved through over the weekend were less than anticipated, giving a boost the wheat markets today as more will be needed to replenish soil moisture.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market reversed to trade lower after failing to hold gain above the 50-day moving average in the December contract. While weakness in the wheat market and continued harvest pressure are likely weighing on corn prices, they remain above the key 400 support level.
New export sales as reported by the USDA for the 24/25 marketing year came in at 2,225,700 metric tons for the week ending October 10, with export shipments totaling 501,800 mt. Sales were up 82% from the previous week, and higher than the 4-week average, while shipments were 53% below the previous week and 49% below the 4-week average.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, meeting analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used, maintaining the pace required to meet USDA usage targets.
Soybeans turned lower once traders returned from the morning’s market pause, weighed down by sharply lower soybean oil, which is following lower crude and palm oil. Meal still holds a modest gain.
The USDA released its weekly Export Sales report this morning, showing new soybean sales as of October 10, at 1,702,700 metric tons, with exports of 1,852,700 mt. New sales were up 35% from the prior week and 16% above the 4-week average, while exports ran 9% higher than the previous week and noticeably higher than the 4-week average.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 21,000 mt of soybean oil for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year, and 292,800 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, also to be delivered for the 24/25 marketing year.
The Malaysian finance ministry recently reported that it expects lower palm oil prices in the coming year based on higher production due to a higher harvestable area, a better labor market, and favorable weather.
The wheat complex is trading lower at midday led by losses in the Chicago contracts, as forecasts expect much needed rains moving into HRW wheat country this weekend.
In the weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported new wheat sales as of October 10 totaling 504,100 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. This was 16% above the prior week, and 57% above the 4-week average.
Australia’s 24/25 wheat production is projected to rise by 18% to 30.62 million metric tons compared to last year, driven by favorable growing conditions in New South Wales and Western Australia, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region, the country’s seventh-largest grain producer, have declared a state of emergency due to drought and the failure of winter crops. This highlights the lower production figures that have been reported this season.
A front moving through the central and Southern Plains is expected to bring much needed moisture into the region possibly through Monday, with some areas potentially receiving 1-2 inches of rain.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains weaker at midday on improving weather conditions in South America and US harvest progressing rapidly.
December corn is trying to hold the $4 support level but a break below that level could see additional downside.
Ethanol production improved to 1.042 million barrels per day which was up from 1.038 million last week. There was 105 mb of corn used, bringing the total usage for the current marketing year to 609 mb.
Yesterday, the USDA announced a sale of 64 mb of corn to Mexico.
China’s corn harvest continues to progress quickly with 70% of the crop harvested.
Soybeans continue to push lower on rainfall in South America and growing open interest on the short side. November soybeans look to be trading lower for a sixth day in a row.
The possibility of tariffs if Trump is elected has soybeans on the defensive at midday.
EU members approved the deforestation rule delay by one year allowing for businesses to prepare.
China’s soybean harvest continues to move rapidly with an estimated 83% of the crop harvested.
All three wheat contracts are weaker at midday following corn and soybeans lower. Chicago wheat has given back yesterday’s gains trading back near the 576 level.
Russia has announced they will allow Kazakhstan to move grain through their country to reach importers while keeping the ban on imports from Kazakhstan.
FranceAgriMer lowered their forecast of French SRW stocks from 2.75 mmt to 2.50 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is holding its gains from overnight, while maintaining support near yesterday’s lows and the 401 level in the December contract with help from higher wheat and fresh sales to Mexico.
The USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 1,623,060 metric tons for delivery to Mexico. Of that total, 1,043,940 mt is for the 24/25 marketing year, while 579,120 mt is set to be delivered for the 25/26 season. Additionally, 332,000 mt of corn was sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the current 24/25 marketing year.
The USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. The report showed corn harvest progressing a whopping 17% to 47% complete as of Sunday, October 13, which compares to 42% complete last year and 39% on average.
November soybeans are trading near the lower end of their 14 ¼ cent range, having lost earlier gains due to weakness in the soybean oil market, which is also near the bottom of its daily range. Meanwhile, meal continues to hold its ground, trading higher at midday.
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations totaling 175,000 metric tons. This comes on top of the 131,000 mt sold to China for 24/25 reported yesterday.
The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, issued yesterday afternoon, indicated that the soybean harvest advanced a massive 20% to 67% complete as of Sunday. This year’s soybean harvest is now 10% ahead of last year, and 16% ahead of the 5-year average.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed a record number of soybeans were crushed for the month of September, totaling 177.32 million bushels, well ahead of expectations. Despite the record crush total, soybean oil stocks saw a sixth month of decline, coming in at just 1.066 billion pounds, the smallest month-end supply since 2014.
Rain continues to move across the parched areas of Brazil, improving planting conditions there, while conditions look to remain favorable for harvest across much of the nation’s mid-section for the next 5-7 days.
The wheat complex is trading higher across all three futures classes, rebounding from support near yesterday’s lows. The markets may also be finding support near key moving averages, such as the 200-day moving average in December Chicago and the 50-day moving average in both December KC and Minneapolis.
The USDA reported in its weekly Crop Progress report, issued yesterday afternoon, that winter wheat planting is now 64% complete as of Sunday, just behind the 5-year average of 66% complete, and last year’s 65%.
Russia’s union of grain exporters instituted its first public wheat-export price indicator, derived from survey data. The indicator currently shows October prices at $240 per metric ton, with November and December prices indicated at $245 and $250/mt respectively.
While much of the nation’s mid-section is dry and wide open for harvest, much needed rain is expected to move into the southern Plains later this week, which will help with planting and emergence of the winter wheat crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Weakness in corn is driven by a sharp selloff in crude oil. December corn now trades under the 50-day moving average for the first time since September 23.
Conab estimates Brazilian corn production at 119.7 mmt versus the USDA at 127 mmt.
Corn shipments into Mexico will be temporarily delayed due to a train derailment at the US/Mexico border.
Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on improving weather in South America.
NOPA crush is expected slightly above 170 mb in September compared to 165.5 mb last year and 158 mb in August.
Conab estimates Brazilian soybean production at 166 mt for the 24/25 crop.
The wheat complex is weaker at midday on a stronger dollar and chances of rainfall in the US Plains over the next 6-10 days.
Conab estimates Brazilian wheat production at 8.26 mmt which was unchanged from last month.
The French Ag Ministry estimates that wheat production is down 27.6% from last year at 25.4 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading towards the bottom of its current 5-cent range in the December contract as it continues to digest higher production estimates than were expected in Friday’s USDA WASDE report.
On Friday the USDA updated its supply and demand numbers for the 24/25 marketing year. Yield was raised slightly to 183.8 bpa, which put production above trade estimates at 15.203 billion bushels. While 24/25 ending stocks were lower than the September projection, they too were above the average trade guess at 1.999 billion bushels.
The CFTC also issued its Commitment of Traders report Friday afternoon, showing that Managed funds covered another 44,000 contracts of their net short positions in the corn futures market. This brought the Managed funds’ net short position to a minimal 23,729 contracts.
Crop analyst APK-Inform, lowered its corn export forecast for Ukraine by 11%, dropping it from 22.5 million metric tons to 20 mmt, largely due to lower production.
November soybeans are trading a little lower, though in the middle of their trading range, caught between a rebound in soybean meal, which is currently trading higher and at the top end of its range, and lower bean oil, which is trading at its lows following weaker crude oil.
Soybean planting has reached 9.3% complete in Brazil, according to consulting firm Patria Agronegocios, versus 17.4% complete at the same time last year. While the current planting pace is behind, it is expected to pick up now that the country’s rainy season has arrived.
Friday’s WASDE report was largely unchanged from September’s projections and contained no surprises for the trade. Yield and production were left nearly unchanged at 53.1 bpa and 4.582 billion bushels, while ending stocks were also unchanged from September at 550 million bushels.
Updated Commitment of Traders data released Friday showed Managed funds covering another 13,088 soybean futures contracts, bringing total net short positions in the soybean market to 21,798.
The wheat complex is trading lower across all three futures classes as sellers remain active following Friday’s weak trade, as rains are expected to move through HRW regions later this week.
In Friday’s updated WASDE report, the USDA only made minor changes to the US balance sheet, lowering it to 812 million bushels, where the trade expected 819 mb. The World balance sheet for wheat increased to 257.72 million metric tons, where the trade expected a reduction to 256.14 mmt.
Friday’s COT update showed that Managed funds sold just under 6,500 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which brought their total net short position in Chicago wheat to 29,449 contracts.
According to a Reuters report, Russia is setting a floor of $250 per metric ton on exported wheat to international buyers. This appears to be an effort to slow export sales as the nation deals with lower production forecasts. To that point, SovEcon lowered its projection of Russian wheat production for the 2024 season to 81.5 mmt, from 82.9 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Most of the US corn belt looks to have good weather for the next week or so. This should keep harvest pace moving along quickly, which might keep hedge pressure on the market.
Ukraine’s corn exports are expected to decline to 21.7 mmt vs 29.4 mmt last year due to heat and dryness. This should lend some support to US corn exports.
The French corn harvest is vastly behind last year’s pace, sitting at 6% complete, compared with an average of 44% for this time of the year. This is due to overly wet weather. In fact, it is being said that they have had the wettest September in 25 years.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine farmers have been forced to stop planting corn in the western regions due to overly dry conditions. Their planting is 19% complete, up 5% from the previous week. Despite the pause, the exchange did not adjust the planted acreage estimate, which sits at 6.3 million hectares (though that would still be down 22% from last year).
Palm oil prices have rallied 2.8% on Friday and 16% since the middle of September, while canola has risen about 14% since mid-September. This increase in world veg oil prices has been providing some support to US soybean oil futures and has also improved crush margins.
At midday, crude oil is trading near neutral after a lower start to the session. This comeback in price has lent some support to the grain complex as well. Further uncertainty surrounding the war in the middle east has been adding volatility to the crude market.
Yesterday there were rumors of China buying soybeans, with purchases of three cargoes from the US and three from Brazil. For the week their total is said to be 18-20 cargoes. An increase in Chinese demand would certainly benefit the US soy complex.
The extended forecast for the drier central areas of Brazil continues to show improved chances for rainfall. While the wet season may be arriving later than normal, some estimates are pegging total soybean production in South America will increase by 19 mmt over last year (if the weather situation continues to improve).
At midday, the December contract of all three US futures classes has traded above the 100-day moving average for the third session in a row. This may now be an important support area and may also indicate a more bullish trend for wheat.
Russia’s ag minister is believed to have called a meeting on Friday with major grain exporting companies. This is likely to discuss a possible export quota. In related news, the Russian government is reported to have decreased their estimate of the country’s wheat crop to 83 mmt. Previous estimates ranged from 84-86 mmt, and for reference last year’s crop totaled 92 mmt.
Continued tensions in the Black Sea region are adding war premium to the wheat market. The recent missile attacks against grain vessels and infrastructure have not only led to more uncertainty but are said to have resulted in soaring insurance premiums as well. Russian FOB export values have also recently been increasing.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn continues to trade lower at midday ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Weekly export sales for corn came in at 48 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 15% from last year at 695 mb.
Ethanol production for the week ending October 4 was up 2.3% from a week ago at 1.038 mb. Ethanol stocks came in at the lowest level since December 2023 at 22.154 mb.
Dry conditions over the next 10 days across the Corn Belt will keep harvest advancing quickly.
Soybeans remain weaker at midday on increasing chances of rainfall in Brazil.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 47 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 4% from last year at 740 mb.
There continues to be chatter that China is buying soybeans from both the US and Brazil despite economy concerns.
The Brazilian President announced a new plan yesterday to increase soybean oil usage in biodiesel production over the next 5 years. The goal is to bring the blend percentage from 15% to 20% by 2030.
The wheat complex continues to stay elevated at midday on dry conditions in growing areas of Russia and Ukraine.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 16 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 19% from last year at 443 mb.
Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their production estimate for Argentine wheat by 1 mmt to 19.5 mmt.
Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s port infrastructure in the Odessa region which is helping to support the wheat complex.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The US weather forecast remains warm and dry for most of the Midwest, which should allow harvest to advance quickly. This may result in more hedge pressure, limiting upside price potential. As of last Sunday, harvest was reported to be 30% complete.
In a flash sale this morning, private exporters reported sales of 126,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
US August ethanol exports increased 3.8% above July and were also 41% above August of last year. For the first eight months of 2024, US ethanol exports are up 38%. Additionally, US exports of dried distillers grains are up 15% for the same timeframe (versus 2023).
The Chinese stock market on Wednesday fell with the highest daily losses since the covid pandemic began. This may be in part due to disappointment with Beijing’s economic stimulus efforts. This may also have a ripple effect that weighs on US markets.
The European weather model has increasing rainfall for Mato Grosso, Brazil in the 6–10-day timeframe. The improving weather conditions should minimize crop planting delays, but this may also limit upside for US grains, with the thought that Brazil will still have large crops.
The lower crude and palm oil markets have pressure on soybean oil futures, which in turn may weigh on soybeans themselves. Soybean meal has also seen a recent downturn, as US meal FOB export values are at a $34 per mt premium to South America.
Wheat managed a positive close yesterday in the face of a negative trend for majority of the grain complex. At midday today, wheat is also the upside leader. Recent increases in Black Sea tensions may be offering support, with two reported Russian attacks on grain vessels to start this week, within the same number of days.
Most of the US wheat areas remain warm and dry, raising concerns about establishment of the winter wheat crop. As of last Sunday, the USDA said 51% of the crop is planted, with 25% emerged.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher on Wednesday, offering support to the US market. Like US futures, this jump may be factoring in more war premium. However, global weather issues are also supportive to prices; the Black Sea area remains too dry, the EU is too wet, and Australia has seen recent dryness and frost damage.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains lower at midday on forecasted rainfall in South America and favorable weather conditions in the Midwest which should speed along harvest progress.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn harvest at 30% versus 31% a year ago. Good-to-excellent ratings were also unchanged for the second week in a row at 64%.
AgRural has reported that Brazil’s first corn crop is 37% planted versus the average of 39%.
Soybeans are weaker at midday on favorable harvest weather in the US and Brazil’s upcoming monsoon season which would bring beneficial rainfalls.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest at 47% which is 10% ahead of last year’s pace and 13% above the 5-year average. Good-to-excellent ratings fell 1% to 63% from a week ago.
The USDA confirmed a sale of 166,000 mt of US soybeans to China for 24/25.
The wheat complex is trading lower at midday along with corn and soybeans.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed Winter wheat plantings at 51% compared to 52% last year and 53% for the 10-year average.
Russia continues to attack Ukrainian ports in which many believe is an attempt to slow down export business which the government has been using to fund the ongoing war.
StoneX has lowered their Brazil wheat crop estimate from 8.09 mmt to 7.89 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
