Midday

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is currently firm and holding to the upper end of its range as it recovers from yesterday’s initial bearish reaction to the USDA’s WASDE report with support coming from higher wheat.
• While the USDA raised its yield estimate for this year’s corn crop to a record 186.3 bpa, they lowered 24/25 ending stocks for the third time in a row to 2.057 billion bushels, slightly higher than expected, due to higher 23/24 exports and ethanol demand.
• This week’s Drought Monitor showed an increase in drought conditions for the nation’s corn producing areas. Corn producing areas in drought increased 5% to 18%. While this may not have a large impact on this year’s crop, it bears watching in the coming months.
• The drought in Brazil has resulted in the driest soil conditions in 30 years in two of the country’s largest producing states. While this is primarily an issue for soybeans right now, any extended delay in soybean planting could affect production of the safrinha corn crop.

• Soybeans are trading toward the lower end of their trading range after hitting overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average in the November contract. Weakness from both meal and oil is adding pressure as both products also rejected upward advances and are trading lower at midday.
• Yesterday the USDA released supply and demand numbers that were somewhat friendly to the soybean market. The USDA lowered 24/25 ending stocks to 550 million bushels, a 10 mb reduction from August versus an 8 mb that was expected. The drop was largely due to higher crush demand in the 23/24 marketing year that carried over to 24/25. Yield projections were left unchanged at 53.2 bpa.
• This week’s Drought Monitor revealed a 7% increase in drought conditions across the nation’s soybean producing regions, bringing the total area affected to 26%. While the impact on this year’s crop may be limited, it’s a development worth monitoring closely in the coming months.
• The drought in Brazil has resulted in the driest soil conditions in 30 years in two of the country’s largest producing states, according to EarthDaily Agro. Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue for the next ten days before they begin to improve. Any extended stretch of the current conditions could begin to affect soybean yield and planting of the safrinha corn crop.
• Argentina is set for its largest soybean acreage expansion in 15 years, as farmers are expected to increase planted acres by 7.5% from last year. Total planted area is anticipated to reach 17.7 million hectares (43.7 m. acres) according to the Rosario Board of Trade.

• The wheat complex is trading higher across all three classes with the Chicago contracts leading the way higher. Buyers are likely leaning on the continued dry conditions in the US Plains and a potential rise in Black Sea aggression.
• Reports of a missile attack on a vessel carrying Ukrainian grain in international waters has sparked a call for greater Western involvement in the Russia/Ukraine war. This could be leading to some short covering and an addition of war premium in the wheat complex.  
• Ukraine’s National Hydrometeorology Center stated that the soil moisture in 70% of the area expected to be planted with winter wheat is nearly depleted, with some areas having almost no moisture at depth up to one meter. This and the continued dryness in the US Plains could affect planting of winter wheat and draw down potential production.
• Yesterday’s WASDE report was largely neutral for wheat, as expected. The 24/25 production estimate remained unchanged at 1.982 billion bushels, with the next update scheduled for the September 30 Small Grains Summary report. The US 24/25 wheat carryout was also left steady at 828 million bushels, though the market had anticipated an 8 mb reduction. Globally, 23/24 wheat ending stocks rose from 262.4 to 265.3 million metric tons, while the 24/25 figure held at 256.6 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• December corn continues to trade above the 50-day moving average on expectations that the USDA will slightly lower corn production in today’s WASDE report.
• Estimates for today’s WASDE report are that the USDA will lower corn production from 15,174 mt to 15,076 mt and lower yield from 183.1 bpa to 182.4 bpa.
• Rosario Grain Exchange views corn acres in Argentina for 24/25 falling 21%.
• Strategie Grains lowered their EU corn production estimate from 60 mmt to 57.9 mmt due to drought conditions.
• USDA reported an export sale of 118,626 mt of corn sold to unknown destination for the 24/25 crop year this morning.
• Weekly corn export sales came in below expectations at 26 million bushels. Year-to-date commitments of 526 mb are 20% ahead of last year.

• The soy-complex is trading higher at midday ahead of the WASDE report on fears that hurricane Francine will disrupt harvest in the Delta and Southwestern regions.
• Estimates for today’s WASDE report range slightly but overall sentiment is that the USDA could raise soybean yield and increase 24/25 ending stocks.
• The Chinese Ag Ministry has increased their 2023/24 soybean import estimate to 102 mmt, up from 98 mmt in their last forecast.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates that soybean acres in Argentina will grow roughly 7.5% to 17.7 million hectares.
• Brazilian oilseed crushing group, Abiove, lowered their soybean production forecast from 153.20 mmt to 153 mmt. The group also raised soybean meal exports from 21.7 mmt to 22 mmt.
• Weekly soybean export sales were in line with expectations at 54 million bushels. Year-to-date commitments of 523 million bushels are 14% below a year ago.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday due to drought in the Plains states and lower EU production.
• Trade estimates for today’s WASDE report reflect very few changes to wheat but USDA could lower ending stocks due to increased export sales.
• Strategie Grains has lowered their EU soft wheat production forecast by 2 mmt to 114.4 mmt.
• Weekly wheat export sales came in at 17 million bushels, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments of 396 million bushels are 30% ahead of last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market has given up its gains from overnight and earlier in the session and is currently trading near the lower end of the day’s range near the 20-day moving average.
• The EIA will be out with its weekly ethanol production numbers. The trade is looking for a slight bump in production from last week to 1.062 million barrels per day, with stocks estimated to come in at 23.338 million barrels, just under last week’s 23.354 m. bbl.
• Tomorrow the USDA will release its September WASDE report. The trade estimates that 24/25 corn ending stocks will decline about 40 million bushels to 2.033 billion bushels from the August projection of 2.073 bb. Yield is expected to come in near 182.7 bpa versus 183.1 bpa last month.
• Concerns remain regarding Chinese demand, as domestic prices continue to drop and a deflationary economy could reduce import demand. On the other hand, rising domestic prices in India could increase the chance of imports.

• Soybeans, like corn, are trading well off their highs from earlier in the session with lower soybean oil weighing on prices despite higher crude and palm oils. Soybean meal is trading mid-range and in the green at midday.
• US export premiums out of the Gulf of Mexico are currently running about 40 cents cheaper than Brazil, which should help increase sales.  A concerning factor to US exports is the low water levels on the Mississippi River, which are currently at restrictive levels and could hamper shipments if the situation persists. On the positive side, there have been rumors of Chinese soybean purchases off the PNW for the October – November time slot.
• Export premiums out of Brazil have been on the rise due to the continued dryness, which has slowed early planting and created logistics issues on the river system due to low water levels. Prolonged dryness in the region could also delay planting further, jeopardizing yields, and widening the US export window.
• The USDA will release its updated WASDE numbers tomorrow. The trade is expecting a minor uptick in US ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year to 568 mb from 560 mb in August. Yield is expected to come in nearly unchanged from last month at 53.3 bpa.

• The wheat complex is extending its gains again at midday, with the Chicago contracts showing higher prices for the third consecutive day.
• Continued dry weather in the southern Plains and Black Sea region is adding support to prices. Expansion of drought in HRW areas and wet weather expected in SRW areas from hurricane Francine could affect the planting pace.
• With reductions to the European and Black Sea wheat crops, US exports have picked up and are running 31% higher than last year. In tomorrow’s WASDE report, the trade is looking for 24/25 ending stocks to drop about 6 mb to 822 mb, from the August estimate of 828 mb.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market remains weaker at midday. The December contract is still floating around the 50-day moving average at 405 ¾.
• Corn export inspections for the week ending September 5 came in at 836,413 mt. Year-to-date exports are at 468,626 mt, which is 26.3% below last year.
• AgRural announced that 15% of Brazil’s corn crop is planted, down 2% from a year ago.
• Weather over the next 10 days will bring limited rainfall in the Midwest. This could cause river transportation to worsen while seeing barge freight costs continue to rise.

• The soy-complex trends weaker at midday. November soybeans have erased yesterday’s gain of 13 cents, dropping near the $10 price level.
• Soybean exports for the week ending September 5 came in at 354,166 mt. Year-to-date inspections are at 262,457 mt which is 29.8% below last year.
• China’s soybean imports for the month of August were a record high of 12.14 mmt.

• Wheat remains higher at midday on reports of lower Russian wheat yields. December Chicago wheat is now back above the 50-day moving average and looking to make a push back above the September high of 582.
• Wheat export inspections for the week ending September 5 came in at 586,687 mt. Year-to-date inspections are 6,35,683, which is 33.5% above last year.
• The potential for a Fed rate cut next week, which could cause a lower dollar making US exports more competitive, is also helping to support the wheat market.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is rebounding off its lows from earlier in the session and trading towards the upper end of its range. Weekly export inspections came in at 836, 413 metric tons, though down from last week, they are 31% above the same time last year.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered a large 65,697 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short 176,211 corn futures contracts, roughly half of their record short position from last July.
• Thursday the USDA will release its September WASDE report. Corn production for this year’s crop is expected to drop slightly to 15,076 billion bushels from the August report’s 15,147 bb. The average trade guess for 24/25 ending stocks is also down slightly at 2.007 bb versus 2.073 in August. The trade expects old crop 23/24 ending stocks to come in at 1.856 bb, compared to 1.867 bb last month.
• Except for a tropical storm which is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain into the Delta and the South, the Midwest is expected to remain mainly dry with another round of hot weather this week which could stress the immature crops.
• South American weather could be lending some support as it is expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks, which if prolonged could delay corn and soybean planting and potentially the much larger safrinha crop which is planted after soybean harvest.

• The soybean market is trading higher and towards the top end of the range at midday as it recovers from Friday’s losses, with support coming from higher meal and oil. Weekly export inspections were softer than last week and last year at this time, at 354,166 metric tons.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered 22,455 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short, 154,096 soybean futures contracts.
• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year. We are at the time of year when sales like this are becoming more routine with US export prices typically cheaper than South American offers.
• Thursday, the USDA will release its September WASDE report. Trade expectations are for this year’s crop production to remain unchanged at 4.589 billion bushels. The average trade guess for 24/25 ending stocks is 565 million bushels versus 560 mb currently, with 23/24 carryout shrinking slightly to 341 mb versus 345 last month. 
• Except for a tropical storm which is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain into the Delta and the South, the Midwest is expected to remain mainly dry with another round of hot weather this week which could stress the immature crops.
• South American weather could be lending some support as it is expected to remain dry for the next couple of weeks, which if prolonged could delay planting and cut into yield forecasts.

• The wheat complex is lower across the board at midday as it follows through on Friday’s weakness. Weekly export inspection for all wheat came in at 586,687 metric tons. Though they were below last week, they were 44% above last year’s numbers at this time.
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed managed funds covered 13,578 contracts of their short position in the week leading up to September 3. As of that date they were reported to be net short, 42,624 Chicago wheat futures contracts, nearly half of their total net short position from the end of July.
• In Thursday’s WASDE report, the USDA will focus on the 24/25 marketing year. With current US export sales running 31% ahead of last year, the average trade estimate for 24/25 US carry out is 823 mb, 5 mb less than last month’s USDA projection.  
• Once the report is out of the way, the trade will begin to focus on planting the 25/26 crop. Conditions in the southwestern Plains and the Black Sea region remain dry. Though some rain is expected in W. Montana, with some reaching S. Illinois from the system in the Gulf, and the northwestern Plains next week. Rain this week in Europe could slow planting there.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 6.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 71.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 41.8 mb far exceeded the 26.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.250 bb.
• This morning’s jobs report showed that unemployment fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in July. However, the economy added 142,000 jobs, which was less than the 161,000 expected. This makes it a bit more uncertain as to how much of an interest rate cut the Fed will make later this month, with some expecting a 25 basis point reduction and others expecting 50 basis points.
• Brazil’s weather forecast suggests above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for most of September. This may prevent early corn planting by farmers there.
• Yesterday’s EIA data indicated ethanol production at 1.061 million barrels per day. That was down 10,000 barrels from the previous week, but still the second largest amount for this week of the year and was still up 5% from last year.

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 60.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 18.0 mb fell below the 21.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
• Weather looks mostly dry into mid-September, which is not ideal for finishing the soybean crop. But after the next 10 days, the EU weather model suggests that rain may return to the central US.
• Soybean planting is set to begin this weekend in Brazil. However, major producing state Mato Grosso has not had much rain since April, with some reports that it is the worst drought in 40 years. This could ultimately delay soybean plating.
• Soybean oil is lower this morning and is pressuring soybean futures. This may be in part due to palm oil being down about 2% for the week. Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is said to be at a six-month high.

• The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, and net cancellations of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 23.4 mb exceeded the 15.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
• December Paris milling wheat futures are higher this morning. If they close higher, it would be eight out of the last nine sessions with a positive close. Nevertheless, US wheat is mixed to lower at midday, and not receiving much support from the Matif contracts.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, they have left their estimate of Argentina’s wheat production unchanged at 18.5 mmt. This is despite dry conditions in some key growing regions.
• Daily stochastics show overbought conditions for all three US wheat classes. This could result in downside pressure as the market corrects technically.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading softer at midday following a 4-day rally that has seen prices rise 23 cents off their contract lows in the December contract. A cool front and scattered showers are moving through the Corn Belt, and trade may be expecting an increase in yields in next week’s WASDE report.
• Trade estimates for today’s weekly ethanol production report see production slightly higher than last week at 1.072 million barrels per day. Stockpiles are expected to come in at 23.678m bbl, which would compare to 23.572m a week ago. Margins have been profitable which has driven domestic ethanol demand.
• Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its new estimate for the national corn yield and raised it to 182.9 bpa. Next Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, showing their updated yield estimates.

• Soybeans are trading lower today but have rallied steadily since putting in a contract low on August 16 as a result of dry forecasts during the pod fill timeframe. Soybean meal is down sharply, while soybean oil is higher with support from crude and palm oil.
• Yesterday, StoneX revised its estimate for the US soybean yield and increased it along with corn to 53.0 bpa. The increase comes despite the dry forecast which many speculate could trim yields slightly
• Brazil is only expected to increase its planted soybean acreage by 0.9% this year which is the slowest rate of growth in 18 years, but production estimates remain very high at around 168 mmt which would be up 14% from the previous crop.
• Earlier this morning, the USDA reported that 189,700 mt of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, while 126,000 mt were sold to China for the same timeframe. This confirmed some of yesterday’s trade rumors.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Futures are likely correcting from overbought technicals after wheat rallied for 6 consecutive days. KC wheat saw 7 consecutive days of gains.
• While the US has become competitive with most of the world, Russian and Ukrainian offers remain cheaper. Russian FOB offers are between $216 and $217 per mt which is unchanged from August despite a rise in global wheat prices.
• In Ukraine, it is estimated that the 2025 planted winter wheat area could rise to more than 5 million hectares, compared to 4.7 million hectares in 2024. They are expected to plant less rapeseed in favor of wheat due to drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is currently trading toward the upper end of its tight 4 ¼ cent range at midday as it continues to recover from overnight lows as traders likely continue to cover short positions on an improved technical picture, with additional support coming from soybeans and wheat.
• The USDA released its weekly crop progress report yesterday afternoon, which showed the corn crops good to excellent ratings remained steady at 65%, versus 53% last year. The report also showed that 90% of the crop is in the dough stage, 60% dented, and 19% is mature.
• The USDA reported that 473.5 million bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol in the month of July, 4% more than last year.
• There is market talk that there is a push in India to produce more corn-based ethanol and shift away from sugar cane. The move could make India a net corn importer by nearly 1 million metric tons, versus exporting 2 – 4 mmt. Imports could potentially come from Myanmar and Ukraine, with the US and South America potentially filling export holes left behind by India.

• Soybeans continues to recover from overnight lows on an inside day, with the day’s current trading range within yesterday’s high and low. Support is coming from soybean meal and oil, which are currently trading higher.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean good to excellent conditions dropped 2% to 65% as of Sunday September 1, versus 53% last year. The report also showed that 94% of the crop is blooming and 13% is dropping leaves.
• Census crush data was released by the USDA yesterday afternoon and showed July crush at a record 193.4 mb for the month, and well above trade expectations of 192.1 mb. Total crush for the 23/24 marketing year has reached 2.12 billion bushels, 92.6% of the USDA’s current estimate. Soybean oil stocks came in the lowest for any July on record at 2.01 billion pounds, though above trade expectations of 1.97 bp.
• Estimates from a Bloomberg survey show that Malaysian palm oil reserves rose 7.5% and hit a six-month high in the month of August, due to slowing exports. This news adds to the negativity felt in the market from news of China opening an anti-dumping probe against Canada for supposedly dumping cheap canola into China, which drove Canadian canola prices sharply lower and weighed on soybean oil.

• The wheat complex is currently on track for its sixth consecutive day higher across all three wheat classes, with December Chicago and KC contracts trading above the 50-day moving average for the first time since early June, as funds likely continue to cover short positions.
• Yesterday’s USDA crop progress report showed that the spring wheat harvest has advanced to 70% complete as of Sunday September 1, from 51% the week prior, and compares to 70% harvested on average at this time. Additionally, 2% of the winter wheat crop is planted, in line with the five-year average.
• SovEcon reports that Russia’s export prices have held steady this week, landing between $217 and $220 per metric ton. Although Russian wheat remains the cheapest on the world export market, the country’s export totals for August were 5.2 mmt, down slightly from last August’s 5.3 mmt.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Weekly crop progress ratings will be out this afternoon, delayed due to yesterday’s Labor Day holiday. Expectations are for slight declines in ratings.
• The forecast for much of the corn belt looks dry for the next couple of weeks. This may have some impact on the later planted crop. However, there is still anticipation for a record crop.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn harvest is 99.3% complete, and 46.25 mmt of corn have been harvested. Additionally, they estimate that in 2024, 17.1% fewer corn acres will be planted due to leaf hopper disease and drought conditions.
• As reported by Ag Rural, the central-northern region of Brazil has planted about 8% of their first corn crop.

• The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
• Crude oil is sharply lower this morning, potentially due to anticipation of lower domestic and Chinese demand. This is putting some pressure on soybean oil. Also pressuring bean oil, is news that China launched and anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola in response to a Canadian 100% import tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
• Also adding to pressure to vegetable oil markets was a fall in Malaysian palm oil prices by 1.1% on Monday. Additionally, Indian vegetable oil imports declined by 17% in August; India is the world’s number one vegetable oil importer.
• According to the EIA, renewable diesel production capacity increased 7% in June to about 4.9 billion gallons annually – that is up 27% on a yearly basis.

• According to Australia’s agriculture bureau, ABARES, they increased their estimate of Australia’s wheat production by 2.7 mmt to 31.8 mmt. That is up about 6 mmt from last year and compares to the USDA estimate of 30 mmt.
• Paris milling wheat futures appear to have hit some resistance at the 21-day moving average and have traded both sides of unchanged so far today. If September closes lower today, it would end the run of five consecutive higher closes.
• According to IKAR and Sov Econ, Russian wheat FOB export values remain cheap at $216 to $220 per mt. These low prices are despite the fact that the Russian wheat crop may be closer to 81-83 mmt, down 11-13 mmt from estimates earlier this season.
• Argentina’s wheat condition, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, has improved from 39% good to excellent last week to 44% this week. For reference, the crop was rated just 19% good to excellent at this time last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher at midday and has only backed slightly off its earlier morning highs. Support has come from good export sales yesterday, which were a marketing year high at 59 million bushels. Only 12 contracts of September corn were tendered for delivery.
• Ethanol production was supportive as well and has run at a pace higher than the USDA’s expectations. This is proof that domestic demand has been firm, and now export demand is beginning to pick up at a time where a large US crop is about to be harvested.
• In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has estimated that the country would produce 46.5 mmt of corn, which is below the USDA’s latest estimate but well above last year’s 37.0 mmt. Harvest is estimated at 99.3% complete.

• Soybeans are trading mixed at midday and are significantly off their earlier morning highs. November soybeans were up 15 cents at 1007 ¾ but are now lower on the day. Futures are still set to post a gain of around 20 cents on the week if these prices hold.
• Soybean meal is bear spread this morning with losses in the October outweighing those in the deferred months, while soybean oil is lower across the board as it follows the selloff in crude oil. Crush margins remain profitable, which has driven domestic demand.
• In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. Planting for the next season is expected to begin in September.

• Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago and Minneapolis wheat trading higher while KC is unchanged to lower. Paris milling wheat was up overnight which is likely lending support, while quality concerns over spring wheat in North Dakota are also supportive.
• Yesterday, the USDA reported weekly wheat export sales as of August 22, increased 19.6 mb for the 24/25 marketing year and decreased 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments of 21.2 mb that week exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
• The Canadian wheat crop is being estimated at 34.4 mmt for 2024 which would be 4.3% above last year’s production according to Statistics Canada. A Bloomberg survey estimated production at 33.8 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.