The corn market has reversed off its overnight and early morning lows to trade mostly higher as it garners strength from neighboring wheat to follow through on Friday’s gains, with little fresh news to trade.
Basis continue to be firm as domestic and export demand outpace farmer selling. The firm demand is also helping press the December/March corn spread to its tightest levels since June.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed funds bought a net 87,946 corn futures contracts in the week ending November 12. This brought their net long position to nearly 110,000 contracts.
Soybeans have firmed at midday, trading off the lows as buying entered the market following the report of fresh export sales. Soybean meal has also firmed, while bean oil remains weak.
This morning the USDA reported fresh export sales of soybeans, meal, and oil for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Private exporters sold 261,264 mt of soybeans to Mexico, 135,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines, and 30,000 mt of bean oil to India.
It’s been reported that China is expected to cut its export tax rebate on used cooking oil, which could curb some US imports of the product to produce biofuel.
AgRural reported that Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop is 80% planted as of last Thursday. This is up from 67% the previous year, and 68% last year.
The wheat complex is trading near session highs across all three classes after gapping higher on the market’s open Sunday night on news that the US will allow Ukraine to use long range missiles in its war with Russia.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that managed funds sold a net 14,526 contracts of Chicago wheat in the week ending November 12, which brought their total net short position in Chicago wheat to 45,307 contracts.
While much needed rain is moving across much of the winter wheat areas, any bearish affect the rain may be having on the markets appears to be largely offset by the potential escalation of the Russia/Ukraine war.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market has rebounded off its lows from overnight and is trading near session highs, as it gains support from higher soybeans and wheat.
The USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning, showing 51.77 mb (1,315,100 mt) were sold in the week ending November 7, for the 24/25 marketing year, as expected. This was down 53% from the previous week and 52% below the 4-week average.
Consultancy firm Safras & Mercado raised its estimate for Brazilian corn production by 1 mmt, to 134.8 mmt, 7% higher than last year’s production, due primarily to increased planted area.
Soybeans are higher at midday, trading near session highs and back above the $10 mark in the January contract, supported by higher meal and sharply higher soybean oil, which rebounded off trendline support.
The USDA stated in its weekly export sales report that 57.15 mb (1,555,400 mt) of soybeans were sold in the week ending November 7, for the 24/25 marketing year. The print was in line with expectations, and down 24% from the week prior and the 4-week average.
The monthly NOPA crush report will be released later today. The trade expects total crush for October to be a record 196.843 mb, with soybean oil stocks rising for the first time in seven months to 1.09 billion pounds.
Soybean planting is progressing well according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, with 20% of the crop planted. Total estimated area for soybeans remains at 18.6 m hectares (46m acres).
The wheat complex has rebounded from overnight lows and is trading near session highs across all three classes, led by the Chicago contracts.
The USDA reported that 14 mb (381,100 mt) of wheat were sold in the week ending November 7, for the 24/25 marketing year, in line with expectations. While the total was 1% than the previous week, it was 17% below the 4-week average.
Ukraine’s grain harvest is estimated to be 95.7% complete at 52.1 mmt, according to the Ag Ministry, with 22.4 mmt being wheat. The Ministry also reported that Ukraine’s year over year wheat exports for the season that began July 1, reached 8.3 mmt, a 60% increase from the same time last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is weaker at midday on a lower wheat market and higher US dollar.
Yesterday, the USDA announced a sale of 401,357 mt of US corn to Mexico and another 290,820 mt sold to unknown destinations.
Conab raised their Brazilian corn crop estimate slightly from 119.74 mmt last month to 119.82 mmt.
Soybeans are lower at midday on reports of the possibility of lower exports to China.
Soybean oil continues to see a pullback after President-elect Trump appointed Lee Zeldin to head the EPA. Zeldin may not be as friendly towards biofuels as some originally thought.
The USDA confirmed a sale totaling 176,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations.
Conab raised their Brazilian soybean crop estimate slightly from 166.05 mmt last month to 166.14 mmt. They also significantly raised their soybean export number from 92.4 mmt to 98 mmt.
Wheat futures are lower at midday on rainfall prospects and potential for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Conab lowered their Brazilian wheat crop from 8.26 mmt last month to 8.11 mmt.
Agrimer estimates that French SRW exports will be around 9.9 mmt, down from 10.03 last month and 40.5% lower than last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is feeling pressure from lower wheat and soybeans as it trades below support from earlier this week. Slow producer selling and strong demand are supportive for the December contract versus the deferred contracts.
The USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 692,177 mt for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 401,357 mt were sold to Mexico. The other 290,820 mt were sold to unknown destinations.
The USDA reported that as of Sunday, Nov. 10, the corn harvest was 95% complete. This is well ahead of last year’s pace of 86% complete, and 11% ahead of the 5-year average.
Conab is expected to release its updated crop estimates for the 24/25 season on Thursday. The trade expects Brazil’s corn production to come in at 123.5 mmt, 3.8 mmt higher than its last projection.
Soybeans are trading lower across the board at midday, weighed down by further declines in both soybean meal and oil. Processors’ need to keep supply lines full may be supporting nearby contracts versus the deferred.
The USDA reported the soybean harvest to be 96% complete as of Sunday, Nov. 10. With harvest nearly done, this will likely be the final crop progress report of the year.
Conab is expected to release its updated crop estimates for the 24/25 season on Thursday. The trade expects Brazil’s soybean production to be near 168.3 mmt, with estimates ranging between 166.2 mmt and 171.8 mmt.
China’s COFCO estimates that the country’s soybean imports may drop by 9.5% for the 24/25 marketing year. Officials also stated that Chinese buyers stockpiled soybeans ahead of the US elections out of concern for deteriorating relations with the US.
Chicago wheat is leading the wheat complex lower at midday, pressured by improved crop conditions and expectations of additional moisture in the Plains states.
The USDA reported an increase in winter wheat crop conditions in this week’s crop progress report. The good to excellent categories improved 3% from the week prior to 44%, due to the increased moisture.
In its first projection, SovEcon pegged Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop at 21.1 mmt, below the 5-year average.
As of Nov. 10, the EU’s wheat exports for the current season that started July 1, dropped 29% to 8.7 mmt, from 12.3 mmt exported by this time last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn reverses lower at midday following the rest of the grain market. December corn is looking at a second straight day of lower trading after running into some resistance around the 430 level.
Brazil’s first corn crop planting is estimated to be 72% complete, compared to 59% last week and 76% a year ago.
France has increased their corn production estimate from 14.5 mmt last month to 14.6 mmt.
The USDA confirmed a sale of 110,500 mt of US corn for delivery to Mexico in 24/25.
Algeria tendered for 240,000 mt of corn overnight thought to be from South America origin.
Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on fear of a potential trade war between US and China leading to weakness in demand. Sharply lower soybean oil is also adding pressure to the market.
It is reported that Brazil’s soybean planting has reached 67% compared to 54% last week.
Central and Northern Brazil continue to see favorable weather conditions, adding fuel to large production totals and pressuring the soybean market.
All three wheat contracts are trading lower at midday on increased farmer selling due to rainfall in key growing parts of the US and a higher US dollar.
Winter wheat ratings are expected to see additional improvements in this afternoon’s crop progress report after rainfall in the Plains states. Good-to-excellent ratings currently sit at 45%.
Ukraine’s winter wheat plantings are 96% complete according to the agricultural ministry. Of that total 4.4 hectares (10.9 million acres) of winter wheat has been planted, 97% of the expected area.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
So far today the corn market is softer at midday with December showing the most strength as it trades near the lower end of its range, with carryover weakness from lower wheat.
China’s agricultural ministry reported that China’s bumper corn harvest close to being complete, leaving the country with sufficient corn supplies. Although continued rainfall in northeastern the regions may compromise grain quality and transportation.
The USDA released its monthly supply/demand report on Friday. They showed average corn yield dropping more than expected to 183.1 bpa, which helped bring projected 24/25 ending stocks down to 1.938 billion bushels.
After the market closed on Friday, the Commitment of Traders report was released, showing that managed funds’ corn net position shifted to net long for the first time since August 2023, to 22,043 contracts.
Soybeans are currently near the low end of the trading range after hitting resistance near Friday’s highs and reversing. Lower soybean oil is likely weighing on soybeans as it reversed from posting fresh highs overnight. Meanwhile meal is higher on the day as it remains largely rangebound for the month.
Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazil’s soybean planting is ahead of last year’s pace. The firm estimated that 68.36% of the soybean crop has been planted so far, versus 61.28% a year ago.
Friday the USDA released its November supply/demand projections for the 24/25 crop year. Yield projections were dropped from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. This lowered projected 24/25 ending stocks much more than expected to 470 million bushels from 550 mb in October.
Managed funds were relatively quiet in the soybean market in the week ending Nov. 5. Funds bought a net 2,114 contracts, which brought their net short position for that week to 70,112 soybean futures contracts.
The wheat complex remains sharply lower at midday led by losses in the Chicago contracts after traders came out selling Sunday evening as much needed rain moved through HRW country, with more expected this weekend.
Ukraine’s 24/25 grain production and export projections remain unchanged from last month according to analyst APK-Inform. Production is seen at 52.5 million metric tons, with exports remaining at 37.3 mmt versus 51 mmt for 23/24.
Friday’s November WASDE report didn’t offer any significant market moving news. The USDA raised US wheat ending stocks for the 24/25 marketing year 3 million bushels to 815 mb, from October.
Managed funds were very quiet in the Chicago wheat market in the week ending Nov. 5. Managed funds bought a mere net 391 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which isn’t very surprising considering the lack of price movement during that time. Managed funds’ overall Chicago wheat net short position was 30,781 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading higher and near the top of its range as it follows through on yesterday’s strength with support from fresh export sales reported earlier today.
The USDA reported this morning that private exporters sold 200,480 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s WASDE report is expected to show corn yields lowered slightly from last month to 183.7 bpa. Ending stocks for 24/25 are also expected to be lowered a little to 1.946 billion bushels from 1.999 bb last month.
Thursday the USDA released baseline projections for next year’s 25/26 corn crop, estimating planted acres at 92 million, with an ending stocks figure of 2.269 billion bushels.
Corn plantings in Argentina are projected to cover 6.3 million hectares (15.6 m acres) this year, down from 7.9 m hectares planted last year. The Exchange also estimates that the crop is 37% planted.
Soybeans are lower at midday and trading near session lows after failing to hold above the 50-day moving average. Soybean meal is also trading lower and near the bottom of its range, while soybean oil is mixed with December showing small losses, with the deferred months slightly higher.
Earlier today, the USDA reported that private exporters sold a total of 239,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 107,000 mt were sold to China, while 132,000 mt were sold to unknown destinations.
Today’s WASDE report is expected to show soybean yields being lowered from 53.1 bpa last month to 52.9 bpa, along with a drop in projected 24/25 soybean ending stocks from 550 million bushels to 535 mb.
Thursday the USDA released baseline projections for next year’s 25/26 soybean crop, estimating planted acres at 85 million, with ending stocks at 515 million bushels.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina’s soybean plantings to cover 18.6 million hectares (46m acres), down from 19 m hectares last year. The Exchange also estimates that soybean planting is 7.9% complete.
The wheat complex is trading near the upper end of the day’s range across all three classes as they continue to consolidate ahead of today’s USDA report.
Today’s WASDE report is expected to show US 24/25 ending stocks increased slightly from 812 mb in October to 813 mb.
Thursday the USDA released baseline projections for the next year’s 25/26 wheat crop, estimating planted acres at 46 million, and ending stocks at 828 million bushels.
StoneX revised its projections for Brazil’s 2024 wheat crop down to 7.5 million metric tons from its previous estimate of 7.9 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are weaker at midday on improving South America production prospects.
Weekly export sales announcements for corn came in above expectations at 112 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.040 bb, up 48% from a year ago.
South Dakota voters failed to pass a proposal to allow a carbon capture pipeline run through the state which will hamper the ethanol industry.
Algeria announced a tender for 240,000 mt of corn this morning.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show corn yields unchanged from last month at 183.8 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly to 1,946 mb.
Soybeans are firmer at midday on strong export sales announcements.
Weekly export sales announcements for soybeans came in at 75 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.040 bb, up 17% from a year ago.
Brazil’s October soybean exports were down 1.4 mmt from September to October at 4.71 mmt.
There is some chatter that China could be looking to shift soybean demand from US to Brazil.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show soybean yields being lowered from 53.1 bpa last month to 52.8 bpa.
Wheat is weaker at midday on rainfall in key growing parts of the US.
Weekly export sales announcements for wheat came in at 14 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 510 mb, up 18% from a year ago.
London Stock Exchange Group has raised their Argentine wheat production number to 18.20 mmt.
Russia’s Prime Minister has lowered Russia’s total grain crop from 130 mmt to 128 mmt.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show US ending stocks slightly raised from 812 mb last month to 813 mb this month.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading higher on the day, near session highs, as it follows through on yesterday’s strength. The December contract leads the rally after rebounding from overnight lows.
With the US election in the rearview mirror, the market will now focus on Friday’s USDA WASDE report. The average pre-report guess for 24/25 US corn ending stocks is 1.936 billion bushels, with a 183.8 bpa yield. October’s WASDE put corn ending stocks at 1.999 bb.
The European Commission reported that EU corn imports increased 8% year over year to 6.65 million metric tons, as of November 3. This could be one factor supporting US corn exports.
Soybeans are well off their overnight lows and trading near the top of their nearly 21-cent range with support coming from sharply higher soybean oil. Meanwhile, soybean meal is also well off session lows but remains about $2.50 lower on the day in the December contract.
A dealer survey in India indicated that the country’s palm oil imports for the month of October rose 59% to a three-month high, with sunflower oil imports up 57% compared to September. While soybean oil imports, fell 10%, the overall increase in demand is supportive to world veg oil prices.
The trade also estimates Brazilian soybean production at 168.6 million metric tons, versus 169 last month, with Argentina’s soybean production estimated at 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt.
Conab reported that Brazil’s soybean planting was 53.3% complete as of Sunday, Oct. 3, a 15% increase from the week prior, and 4.9% ahead of last year.
Friday the USDA will release its November WASDE report. The average trade guess for 24/25 soybean ending stocks is 535 million bushels, 15 million lower than last month. The trade also estimates yield to come in at 52.9 bpa from 53.1 in October.
The wheat complex, like corn, has rebounded from overnight lows and is trading mostly higher, near session highs across all three classes, though still within the week’s consolidation range.
Ukraine’s trade union UGA reported that the country’s grain and oilseed exports increased to 5.28 million metric tons in October from 3.13 mmt last year. Of that total 1.65 mmt was wheat.
Soft wheat exports from the EU dropped 32% year over year for this season as of Nov. 3, to 7.76 mmt from 11.33 mmt, according to the European Commission.
The average trade estimate for 24/25 wheat ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report is 813 million bushels, nearly unchanged from 812 mb in October.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn struggles to hold on to gains at midday after wheat pulls back.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn harvest at 91% complete compared to 81% a week ago and the 5-year average of 75%.
AgRural estimates Brazil’s first corn crop plantings are at 60% complete.
StoneX lowered their 24/25 corn yield estimate from 184 bpa last month to 183.7 bpa.
Soybeans remain firm at midday on yield cut forecasts and stronger energy prices.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest at 94% complete compared to 89% a week ago and the 5-year average of 85%.
AgRural estimates that Brazil’s soybean plantings are at 54% complete.
StoneX lowered their 24/25 soybean yield estimate from 53.5 bpa last month to 52.6 bpa.
Argentina’s soybean export sales continue to be strong. The country’s oilseed consultancy announced export revenue was 200% higher in October than it was in October of 2023.
All three wheat contracts have pulled back at midday on additional rain in the forecasts for the Plains states.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat plantings at 87% compared to 80% a week ago and the 5-year average of 89%.
Russia’s Ag Minister said that the country could lose between 20 mmt and 22 mmt of grains this year.
Egypt purchased 290,000 mt of wheat in their tender with Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria origins.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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