The corn market is currently trading near the top end of its 6 ½ cent range as it attempts to negate the bearish reversal that was posted yesterday. Since Tuesday December corn has found support below the market between the 10 and 20-day moving averages, providing a potential base for further gains.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange anticipates that Argentine corn planting will cover 6.3 million hectares for the 24/25 season, with a projected harvest of 47 million metric tons. However, they warned that these figures may be revised downward if crucial areas don’t receive rainfall in the coming weeks.
Managed funds actively covered short positions in the corn market yesterday, buying back an estimated 7,000 net short contracts. This brings their estimated net short position to around 110,000 corn futures contracts. The CFTC will release updated position data later today, reflecting activity as of Tuesday, September 24.
USDA data released yesterday showed weak weekly corn export sales for the week ending September 19, totaling only 535,000 metric tons. This figure falls short of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual projections. Currently, total export sales are at 25% of the USDA’s target, compared to the 5-year average of 28% by this time of year.
On Monday, the USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. A Bloomberg survey suggests that US corn stocks as of September 1 are expected to reach 1.846 billion bushels, a 36% increase from the previous year’s 1.360 billion bushels.
Soybeans are currently trading a little higher this morning, near the top end of their range with support from sharply higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is trading lower, but well off its lows, as it follows through on yesterday’s bearish key reversal.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for the 24/25 marketing year.
For the week ending September 19, weekly soybean export sales slightly exceeded expectations, totaling 1.575 million metric tons. Currently, total commitments are at 35% of the USDA’s target, compared to the 5-year average of 42% for this period.
Managed funds were active sellers in the soybean market yesterday, offloading an estimated 3,000 contracts. This positions managed funds with an estimated net short of about 91,000 soybean futures contracts. The CFTC will provide updated positions later today, reflecting data as of Tuesday, September 24.
The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, set for release on Monday, has the potential to reveal unexpected figures. Market expectations place soybean stocks at 347 million bushels, a 31% increase from the 264 million bushels reported in September 2023.
The wheat complex continues to trade lower across all three classes at midday, extending yesterday’s losses as traders adjust their positions ahead of the weekend, month-end, and Monday’s release of the Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains report.
Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has revised its 24/25 grain production forecast down to 124.5 million metric tons from 125 million metric tons. This includes 81.8 mmt of wheat, reduced from the previous estimate of 82.2 mmt. Despite this adjustment, the agency is maintaining its wheat export forecast of 44 mmt for the 24/25 season.
Weekly wheat export sales, reported for the week ending September 19, fell significantly short of expectations at 159,000 metric tons—roughly half of the weekly volume needed to meet the USDA’s export goals. Nevertheless, total sales are slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace for this time of year.
Managed funds sold an estimated 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts yesterday, bringing their short position to around 19,000 contracts. The CFTC will release updated position data later this afternoon, reflecting activity as of Tuesday, September 24.
The USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports are scheduled for release on Monday. According to a Bloomberg survey, US wheat stocks as of September 1 are projected to be 1.992 billion bushels, a 13% increase from last year. Wheat production for 24/25 is estimated at 1.983 billion bushels.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn rebounds higher at midday on a stronger wheat market.
Corn export sales came in below expectations at 21 mb. Year to date commitments are 17% ahead of last year at 580 mb.
Rainfall continues to be beneficial in the Southern portion of Brazil, but the Central region continues to be hot and dry.
Rosario grain exchange estimate that Argentine corn acres are down 21% with BAGE estimating total production now at 47 mmt versus 49.16 mmt previously.
Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday on dry South America weather and talks of increased China interest ahead of the country’s Golden Week holiday.
Soybean export sales were in line with expectations at 58 mb. Year to date commitments are currently 1% behind last year’s pace at 646 mb.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) estimates a larger Argentine soybean crop at 52 mmt versus 50.5 mmt last year.
China is considering a stimulus package to help aid its sluggish economy which is offering some additional support to soybeans as well as outside markets.
All three wheat classes continue to trend higher at midday on reports of tighter global supplies for exporters and short covering by the funds.
Wheat export sales came in at a marketing year low of 6 mb. However, year to date commitments continue to outpace last year by 22% at 411 mb.
Dryness is expected to return to the US plains over the next few weeks which could affect sowing conditions.
IKAR lowered their Russian wheat production forecast from 82.2 mmt to 81.8 mmt due to dry conditions in the region.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading off its lows from earlier this morning as it finds support near the 10-day moving average and from firmer soybeans and wheat.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 180,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s Ethanol Production report indicated that for the week ending September 20, daily production averaged 0.994 million barrels, down 5.2% from last week, but ahead of the 5-year average of 0.928 m. barrels per day. Ethanol stocks came in at 23.524 million barrels, a new high for this week of the year. Total corn used for production was estimated at 100.29 million bushels, below the 104.5 mb needed to reach the USDA’s goal.
The USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report next week, on Monday. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.
Soybeans have rebounded from their early morning lows and are trading higher at midday, supported by a sharp rise in soybean oil, which is extending yesterday’s gains following news of proposed legislation to protect US biofuel feedstock use.
A new bill, the Farmers First Fuel Incentives Act, has been introduced in Congress. The bill aims to ensure that only biofuels made from domestic feedstocks qualify for the 45Z tax credit. According to Senator Roger Marshall, this legislation would also extend the current 2-year credit to 10 years.
There have been rumors that China has purchased between 12-16 cargoes of US soybeans earlier this week. So far, there has not been any confirmation in the USDA’s daily reporting system.
Next week, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. A Bloomberg survey shows the average market expectation for US soybean stocks as of September 1 to be 347 million bushels, a 31% increase from last year’s 264 million bushels.
The wheat complex is trading mostly higher across all three classes with Chicago and KC leading the way, as the December contracts of both classes rebound off moving average support just below the market and consolidate.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the July 2024 to June 2025 season have reached approximately 9.8 million metric tons as of September 25, according to their agricultural ministry. Of this, 5.6 mmt is wheat. In addition, Ukrainian farm associations and the government have agreed to cap wheat exports at 16.2 mmt.
A Chinese state planner announced that China has set the maximum wheat purchase volume from domestic producers at 37 million metric tons for 2025 and 2026. The minimum purchase price will remain at 119 yuan ($16.92) per 50 kilograms, the same as the price established for 2024.
A Bloomberg survey projects that the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, due next week, will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With carryover weakness from the wheat complex, the corn market is currently trading toward the lower end of its almost 6-cent range following a rally that failed to hold above the 416 resistance level.
The USDA’s Crop Progress report issued yesterday afternoon showed that 65% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and 1% better than trade expectations. The report also indicated that 61% of the crop is mature and 14% harvested, up from 45% and 9% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers in yesterday’s trade, buying a massive estimated 25,000 corn futures contracts. The short covering is thought to stem from hot and dry conditions in Brazil. Managed funds are now estimated to be short about 121,000 corn futures contracts.
Any delay in Brazil’s soybean planting pace, could very well push back Brazil’s larger, mostly exported, safrinha corn crop, which is planted after soybean harvest. Currently, Brazil’s first corn crop is reportedly 26% planted in the country’s Center-South region, according to AgRural. This compares to 19% complete last week, and 25% last year.
November soybeans continued to build on yesterday’s buying strength, trading to their highest level since late July. While still up on the day, soybean prices have eased off those highs as meal retreated to trade near unchanged. Soybean oil remains sharply higher, currently showing a 111-point gain in the December contract.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report that showed soybean conditions remained steady in the good to excellent categories at 64%. The report also indicated that 65% of the crop is dropping leaves, and 13% of the crop is harvested, up from 6% last week.
Managed funds were active buyers on yesterday’s rally, due to the dryness in South America, buying a whopping estimated 21,500 soybean futures contracts. As of this morning, they were estimated to be net short just over 100,000 contracts.
AgRural reported that it estimates Brazil’s soybean planting to be 0.9% complete. While this is higher than last week’s 0.1%, it remains behind last year’s pace of 1.9% complete. The delay largely stems from the hot and dry weather in the key state of Mato Grosso, in which farmers are waiting for more favorable conditions to develop in the next couple of weeks.
After briefly trading higher on the day at the sessions reopening from this morning’s pause, the wheat complex has retreated and is now lower on the day across all three classes in sympathy with lower Paris Milling wheat.
The USDA reported in its weekly Crop Progress report that spring wheat harvest is largely done at 96% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 95%. The report also noted that the winter wheat crop is 25% planted, just behind the average trade estimate of 27%, but 3% ahead of the 5-year average pace of 24%.
Managed funds were active in Chicago wheat yesterday, but not to the extent of corn or soybeans. It’s estimated that they bought 7,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, which brings their estimated net short down to 17,000 contracts.
Interfax has reported that the Russian Ag Ministry may adjust its projection of the country’s 2024 grain crop by the end of this week. Currently, Russia has harvested 105.9 million metric tons of grain, which includes 77.7 mmt of wheat. SovEcon recently estimated the Russian wheat crop to be 82.9 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading higher across the board though off the day’s highs that challenged the recent high from early September. Rumors of early yields that are lower than expected may be leading to the rally and potential short covering.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its Commitment of Traders report Friday afternoon, showing that managed funds net sold 2,680 corn futures contracts, which brought their net short position to 134,814 contracts, as of Tuesday, September 17. Today, they are currently estimated to be net short about 146,000 corn futures contracts.
Over the weekend a front brought widespread showers and some heavy rain across the Midwest, with another low pressure system developing that could bring more showers later this week before turning dry again. Another front is expected to move through next week that could impact harvest.
Soybeans are leading the grain floor higher at midday with November beans posting just under a 30-cent high to low trading range. Rumors of lower than expected early yields and technical buying may be contributing to the day’s strength. Sharply higher soybean oil and meal are also lending support.
Friday the CFTC released its Commitment of Traders report that showed managed funds bought 8,186 soybean futures contracts, bringing their net short position to 122,415 contracts, as of Tuesday, September 17. They are currently estimated to still be short about 122,000 soybean futures contracts.
Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil’s soybean crop is 0.5% planted as of September 20. This is behind the five-year average of 1.5% complete and compares to 1.6% complete last year. Hot and dry conditions have slowed the planting place, though rain is expected to move in later this week and next.
The wheat complex is higher across all three classes at midday, with Chicago and KC leading the Minneapolis contracts. The rise in tensions in both the Middle East and the Black Sea regions could be a contributing factor along with carryover support from higher corn and soybeans.
Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that managed funds bought 4,364 contracts of Chicago wheat, which brought their net short to 25,033 contracts as of Tuesday, September 17. As of this morning managed funds are estimated to be short about 24,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry stated on its website that this year’s Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 31.9 million metric tons, ahead of last year’s 29.8 mmt. Of this total, 22.3 mmt is wheat compared to 22.2 mmt last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market continues to struggle at midday as sellers maintain control with a lack of fresh bullish news and harvest beginning to ramp up.
There have been no reported large private export sales by the USDA this week, which may put a damper on next week’s weekly Export Sales report. Though China remains absent from the US corn export market as of late, yesterday the USDA reported 33.36 mb of corn sold as of September 12, which was in line with expectations and higher than the previous week.
Mississippi River levels continue to be a concern with barge traffic running with restricted payloads and tow sizes, which is pressuring basis levels. While the Midwest is seeing some rain move through the region, more will be needed to restore river levels.
Soybean prices tumbled, along with meal earlier this morning despite a flash sale to China. They are now trading at the lower end of their range after giving up overnight gains, as the market continues to trend sideways.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year to China. This marks just the second reported flash sale for the week, following a previous 132,000 mt sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Monday.
According to an executive at Agrovet in India, the country’s palm oil production is expected to increase 3 fold in the next 6 years as oil palm plantations increase and become mature for harvest. This is expected to allow India to reduce its reliance on imported palm oil and could affect bean oil prices long term.
Just as the Mississippi River is dealing with low water levels due to dry weather, the Amazon River basin in South America is experiencing similar conditions, limiting grain loads and potentially slowing exports.
A generally quiet news day for the ag markets has the wheat complex trading mixed at midday as the December contracts across all three classes hold support near yesterday’s lows.
The prolonged drought in Argentina is prompting some farmers to abandon some wheat fields in the north and west agricultural regions. Meanwhile, in the eastern areas, it’s been noted that about 80% of the wheat crop is in normal to excellent condition.
In Western Australia, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia reduced its estimate of the region’s wheat production by 7% from last month to 9.3 million metric tons due to dry weather. Australia as a whole is expected to produce 31.8 mmt, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains weaker at midday after yesterday’s Fed rate cut of 50 points. Money seems to be moving to the equity markets from commodities.
Corn export sales came in at 33 million bushels, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date export commitments are at 559 mb, up 21% from a year ago.
Ukraine’s top producer group reported total exportable corn could range from 15-17 mmt versus 30 mmt last year due to poor growing conditions in the region. This could give US exports a boost with a smaller quantity available to export out of the Black Sea.
Soybeans trade lower at midday on fears of a slowing economy in China, which could hurt US export business.
Soybean export sales came in at 64 million bushels, which was above expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at 588 mb, down 6% from a year ago.
Drought conditions in South America have caused low water levels on both the Amazon and Parana rivers limiting grain loads.
Wheat is weaker at midday after rains move into the forecast for the Central Plains states.
Wheat export sales came in at 9 million bushels, below expectations. Year-to-date commitments are at 405 mb, up 28% from a year ago.
Brazil’s wheat harvest is behind last year’s pace at only 17.8% complete versus 22.8% on average.
France lowers wheat exports by 3.5 mmt to 4 mmt due to disruptive weather patterns affecting production.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is currently trading in a tight 3 ½ cent range, alongside a supportive soybean market and a mixed wheat complex.
The markets are anxiously awaiting the Fed’s anticipated cut in short-term interest rates later today. While a rate cut is widely expected, there is debate whether it will be a 0.25% cut or 0.50%. Lower US interest rates can weigh on the US dollar, which can be friendly to US export prices.
The EIA released its ethanol production report showing that, for the week ending September 13, ethanol production dropped more than expected to 1.049 million barrels per day, with stocks at 23.785 million barrels, compared to the expected 23.74 million.
In its latest report, Brazilian trade group ANEC expects Brazil’s corn exports to reach 6.63 million metric tons in September, up from 6.47 mmt the previous week.
November soybeans traded above the 50-day moving average for the first time since late May, with support coming from firmer soybean oil, which is currently up on rising world veg oil prices. Soybean meal is trading mixed.
India’s edible oil demand is expected to remain strong, according to a Reuters report, despite a 20% hike in import tariffs on crude and refined edible oils. Cooking oils remain affordable, and consumption is anticipated to grow 2% – 3% due to rising prosperity and a growing population. India imports about 70% of its cooking oil needs.
In its latest report, Brazilian trade group ANEC expects Brazil’s soybean exports to reach 5.83 million metric tons in September, up from 5.51 mmt the previous week.
The wheat complex is trading mostly mixed across all three classes as it continues to consolidate from Monday’s slide, with little fresh news to move prices significantly.
On the weather front, dry conditions continue to affect the Black Sea region and are expected to continue into late September. While there was a report of another frost in southeast Australia, though the threat was apparently minimal. Showers are moving through the US plains this week and weekend, which should help winter wheat establishment.
While Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export market with offers near $216 per metric ton. The anticipated cycle of monetary easing by the Fed may help US wheat export prices be more competitive.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn trades slightly lower at midday on improved corn ratings.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings improving 1% to 65% good-to-excellent. Harvest continues to progress as well, jumping 4% from a week ago to 9% complete.
Harvest progression and Mississippi River transportation problems could fuel further weakness in prices in the short-term.
French corn production forecast was raised from 14.01 mmt last month to 14.38 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday on doubts of record yields after 11 of 18 states reported worse good-to-excellent ratings.
In Mondays Crop Progress report, soybean ratings were seen falling 1% to 64% good-to-excellent with 6% of the crop harvested.
NOPA crush for the month of August came in well below expectations at 158 mb, down 13.5% from July and 2% from last year.
Soybean oil is higher at midday after bean oil stocks came in well below expectations at 1.138 billion pounds in yesterday’s NOPA crush report.
Chicago and Kansas City wheat pull back at midday on technical resistance and reports of tensions between Russia and Ukraine easing. Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher.
HRS harvest is 92% complete, up 1% from a year ago. Winter wheat planting also improved 1% from a year ago to 14% complete.
The French Ag Ministry lowered their SRW harvest projection from 26.3 mmt last month to 25.8 mmt.
Dry weather in Ukraine continues to present challenges for planting. Ukraine sowing is just 6.9% versus 11.8% a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
With little fresh news, the corn market is trading back and forth across unchanged, currently at the lower end of its 4 ½ cent range in the December contract.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in corn futures by 44,077 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 132,134 contracts.
Harvest in the southern Midwest is starting to pick up with the dry weather, and early yields are promising in southern Illinois and Indiana. The recent rain from Hurricane Francine may offer some relief to the low Mississippi River levels, but more moisture will be needed to restore them to normal.
The soybean market is seeing choppy back and forth trade at midday after rejecting the day’s initial rally on another flash sale to unknown destinations. Soybean meal and oil are also experiencing choppy trade with meal trading in sympathy with soybeans while oil shakes off initial lows.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in soybean futures by 23,495 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 130,601 contracts.
Later today, the NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) will release its monthly crush report. Traders expect August crush at 171.35 million bushels, a 6.3% drop from July, mostly due to idled plants for seasonal maintenance ahead of harvest, but up 6.1% from August 2023. Soybean oil stocks are expected to come in at 1.356 billion pounds, a 9.5% drop from July if realized, but up 8.5% from last year.
Soybean area is expected to increase in Argentina according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to 19m hectares (47 million acres), a 9.8% increase from last year, due to a fear of the leafhoppers that attacked last year’s corn crop.
The wheat complex is trading mostly lower at midday, as it appears to be rejecting trade near 600 in both the December Chicago and KC contracts, with insufficient bullish news to sustain higher price levels. Minneapolis contracts are following suit, though to a lesser degree.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat futures by 13,227 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 29,397 contracts.
Russian wheat exports surged in August, reaching 5.15 mmt, a 62% increase from July, according to LSEG agricultural research. This jump was driven by lower supplies from the EU, which were estimated to have decreased by 10 mmt to 124 mmt.
Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export market with low export prices. They are currently reportedly hovering between $216-$218 per metric ton.
Growing dryness in the US southern Plains, parts of Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea region have added support to the wheat market, along with the threat of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia, which could disrupt wheat shipments.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
