Most of the US corn belt looks to have good weather for the next week or so. This should keep harvest pace moving along quickly, which might keep hedge pressure on the market.
Ukraine’s corn exports are expected to decline to 21.7 mmt vs 29.4 mmt last year due to heat and dryness. This should lend some support to US corn exports.
The French corn harvest is vastly behind last year’s pace, sitting at 6% complete, compared with an average of 44% for this time of the year. This is due to overly wet weather. In fact, it is being said that they have had the wettest September in 25 years.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine farmers have been forced to stop planting corn in the western regions due to overly dry conditions. Their planting is 19% complete, up 5% from the previous week. Despite the pause, the exchange did not adjust the planted acreage estimate, which sits at 6.3 million hectares (though that would still be down 22% from last year).
Palm oil prices have rallied 2.8% on Friday and 16% since the middle of September, while canola has risen about 14% since mid-September. This increase in world veg oil prices has been providing some support to US soybean oil futures and has also improved crush margins.
At midday, crude oil is trading near neutral after a lower start to the session. This comeback in price has lent some support to the grain complex as well. Further uncertainty surrounding the war in the middle east has been adding volatility to the crude market.
Yesterday there were rumors of China buying soybeans, with purchases of three cargoes from the US and three from Brazil. For the week their total is said to be 18-20 cargoes. An increase in Chinese demand would certainly benefit the US soy complex.
The extended forecast for the drier central areas of Brazil continues to show improved chances for rainfall. While the wet season may be arriving later than normal, some estimates are pegging total soybean production in South America will increase by 19 mmt over last year (if the weather situation continues to improve).
At midday, the December contract of all three US futures classes has traded above the 100-day moving average for the third session in a row. This may now be an important support area and may also indicate a more bullish trend for wheat.
Russia’s ag minister is believed to have called a meeting on Friday with major grain exporting companies. This is likely to discuss a possible export quota. In related news, the Russian government is reported to have decreased their estimate of the country’s wheat crop to 83 mmt. Previous estimates ranged from 84-86 mmt, and for reference last year’s crop totaled 92 mmt.
Continued tensions in the Black Sea region are adding war premium to the wheat market. The recent missile attacks against grain vessels and infrastructure have not only led to more uncertainty but are said to have resulted in soaring insurance premiums as well. Russian FOB export values have also recently been increasing.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn continues to trade lower at midday ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Weekly export sales for corn came in at 48 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 15% from last year at 695 mb.
Ethanol production for the week ending October 4 was up 2.3% from a week ago at 1.038 mb. Ethanol stocks came in at the lowest level since December 2023 at 22.154 mb.
Dry conditions over the next 10 days across the Corn Belt will keep harvest advancing quickly.
Soybeans remain weaker at midday on increasing chances of rainfall in Brazil.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 47 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 4% from last year at 740 mb.
There continues to be chatter that China is buying soybeans from both the US and Brazil despite economy concerns.
The Brazilian President announced a new plan yesterday to increase soybean oil usage in biodiesel production over the next 5 years. The goal is to bring the blend percentage from 15% to 20% by 2030.
The wheat complex continues to stay elevated at midday on dry conditions in growing areas of Russia and Ukraine.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 16 mb which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 19% from last year at 443 mb.
Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their production estimate for Argentine wheat by 1 mmt to 19.5 mmt.
Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s port infrastructure in the Odessa region which is helping to support the wheat complex.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The US weather forecast remains warm and dry for most of the Midwest, which should allow harvest to advance quickly. This may result in more hedge pressure, limiting upside price potential. As of last Sunday, harvest was reported to be 30% complete.
In a flash sale this morning, private exporters reported sales of 126,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
US August ethanol exports increased 3.8% above July and were also 41% above August of last year. For the first eight months of 2024, US ethanol exports are up 38%. Additionally, US exports of dried distillers grains are up 15% for the same timeframe (versus 2023).
The Chinese stock market on Wednesday fell with the highest daily losses since the covid pandemic began. This may be in part due to disappointment with Beijing’s economic stimulus efforts. This may also have a ripple effect that weighs on US markets.
The European weather model has increasing rainfall for Mato Grosso, Brazil in the 6–10-day timeframe. The improving weather conditions should minimize crop planting delays, but this may also limit upside for US grains, with the thought that Brazil will still have large crops.
The lower crude and palm oil markets have pressure on soybean oil futures, which in turn may weigh on soybeans themselves. Soybean meal has also seen a recent downturn, as US meal FOB export values are at a $34 per mt premium to South America.
Wheat managed a positive close yesterday in the face of a negative trend for majority of the grain complex. At midday today, wheat is also the upside leader. Recent increases in Black Sea tensions may be offering support, with two reported Russian attacks on grain vessels to start this week, within the same number of days.
Most of the US wheat areas remain warm and dry, raising concerns about establishment of the winter wheat crop. As of last Sunday, the USDA said 51% of the crop is planted, with 25% emerged.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher on Wednesday, offering support to the US market. Like US futures, this jump may be factoring in more war premium. However, global weather issues are also supportive to prices; the Black Sea area remains too dry, the EU is too wet, and Australia has seen recent dryness and frost damage.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains lower at midday on forecasted rainfall in South America and favorable weather conditions in the Midwest which should speed along harvest progress.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn harvest at 30% versus 31% a year ago. Good-to-excellent ratings were also unchanged for the second week in a row at 64%.
AgRural has reported that Brazil’s first corn crop is 37% planted versus the average of 39%.
Soybeans are weaker at midday on favorable harvest weather in the US and Brazil’s upcoming monsoon season which would bring beneficial rainfalls.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest at 47% which is 10% ahead of last year’s pace and 13% above the 5-year average. Good-to-excellent ratings fell 1% to 63% from a week ago.
The USDA confirmed a sale of 166,000 mt of US soybeans to China for 24/25.
The wheat complex is trading lower at midday along with corn and soybeans.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed Winter wheat plantings at 51% compared to 52% last year and 53% for the 10-year average.
Russia continues to attack Ukrainian ports in which many believe is an attempt to slow down export business which the government has been using to fund the ongoing war.
StoneX has lowered their Brazil wheat crop estimate from 8.09 mmt to 7.89 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market has firmed since this morning’s lows and is trading a little higher with support from a positive turnaround in wheat and the USDA’s report of a flash sale of corn to Mexico.
The USDA reported another private export sale to Mexico for 155,000 mt of corn to be delivered during the 24/25 marketing year.
Midwest weather is expected to remain warm and dry this week, which should keep the window wide open for harvest, potentially adding harvest pressure to prices. The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report this afternoon. The trade is expecting harvest progress to be 38% complete.
The soybean market is trading lower, though towards the upper end of its range at midday as prices chop sideways following this morning’s reopening of the trading session. Soybean meal is trading about 2% lower and weighing on soybeans, while bean oil is trading higher as it follows garners support from higher crude and palm oil.
The USDA also reported a flash private soybean export sale to unknown destinations totaling 172,500 metric tons.
The weakness in the soybean complex could in part be due to the wide open harvest window for the US Midwest, and associated hedge pressure. The trade expects harvest to be 50% complete in this afternoon’s crop USDA crop progress report.
Another potentially bearish factor in today’s trade could also be the South American weather forecasts that show the anticipated return of the monsoonal rains later this week, which should aide in moving soybean planting along in Brazil.
The wheat complex is trading mid-range at midday as all three major classes reverse from overnight lows.
SovEcon recently raised its estimate of the Ukrainian wheat crop to 21.8 mmt. The firm also raised the country’s export forecast due to the larger crop and increased EU demand.
While Russian wheat export prices have been on the rise lately due to dryness and a potentially shrinking crop, and allowed US and world prices to rise, they remain the low cost leader in that export market, keeping them competitive to buyers.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is continuing its slide lower following yesterday’s weak close, as end of week profit-taking and hedge pressure weigh on prices.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 198,000 mt of corn to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Potentially adding support to US corn exports is the fact that the French corn harvest is reportedly only 2% complete according to FranceAgriMer, significantly behind the 5-year average of 26% due largely to wet conditions.
Corn planting in Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, is 13.7% complete, although progress may slow as dry conditions are expected over the next 10 days before the next round of precipitation is expected.
The soybean market has turned lower at midday after rebounding in the overnight session from yesterday’s losses. Both soybean meal and oil have also turned lower, adding downward pressure on soybeans along with hedge pressure ahead of the weekend.
The US dockworker strike was suspended following a temporary agreement that was reached overnight. This tentative agreement will be in force through January 15.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 116,000 mt of soybeans to be delivered to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
US Midwest weather is expected to stay mostly dry and conducive to harvest for the next week or two. Meanwhile, the dry conditions in Brazil are still expected to turn more seasonable late next week with the potential arrival of monsoon rains.
The wheat complex is currently trading lower across all three classes as traders continue to book profits ahead of the weekend after this week’s rally ran into overhead resistance at key moving averages.
For now, it appears that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have lessened following the escalation of the war with Israel. The lack of further escalation is likely leading some traders to cover long positions ahead of the weekend. These positions, entered earlier in the week, pushed December Chicago and KC contracts to their respective 200-day moving averages, while December Minneapolis reached its 100-day ma
Earlier this week, Egypt cemented a deal to purchase 3.1 million metric tons of wheat from the Black Sea region, presumably Russia. Since that time, Egypt has also announced plans to reduce its wheat consumption by substituting corn or sorghum flour in its subsidized bread in a 1:4 ratio, beginning in April 2025.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is weaker at midday on rain prospects in South America and favorable conditions for US harvest.
Weekly export sales came in above expectations at 66 mb. Year-to-date commitments are 14% ahead of last year at 647 mb.
Yesterday’s EIA data showed corn used for ethanol at 102.41 mb which is still behind the average needed pace of 104.55 mb to hit the USDA’s corn usage number.
Soybeans are getting pulled lower by meal after a delay in the EU’s deforestation policy was announced, trending lower at midday on chances of rain in Brazil and weaker meal prices.
Weekly export sales came in at 53 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 696 mb, 3% ahead of last year.
Market participants continue to monitor the weather forecast in South America which shows rainfall in Brazil next week.
All three wheat contracts are continuing to see a pullback at midday after December contracts tested the 200-day moving average.
Weekly export sales came in above expectations at 16 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 427 mb, up 23% from last year.
SovEcon lowered their Russian wheat export forecast from 48.1 mmt to 47.6 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading at the upper end of its nearly 6-cent range with the help of a strong wheat market and higher crude oil.
Monthly ethanol production data released by the USDA for the month of August indicated that 525 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production, 7% more than in August of 2023.
StoneX released its latest estimates for the US corn crop, putting production at 15.222 billion bushels, with an estimated yield of 184 bpa, up from September’s estimate of 182.9 bpa. For reference the USDA’s current projected yield sits at 183.6 bpa.
Funds were very active in the corn market yesterday, buying a whopping estimated 20,000 corn futures contracts, as they continue to cover their net short positions. At the close of yesterday’s business, they were estimated to be net short 72,000 contracts.
The soybean complex is currently mixed, with soybeans trading lower after giving up overnight gains due to sharply lower soybean meal, as forecasts indicate much-needed rain in Argentina. Meanwhile, bean oil is trading sharply higher, supported by gains in crude oil and Malaysian palm oil.
Monthly crush data released by the USDA showed total August crush at 168 million bushels, 13.3% less than in July, and 0.9% less than the same time last year and in line with expectations. The report also showed year over year crude bean oil stocks declining 10.8%.
StoneX increased its estimate of US soybean production to 4.613 billion bushels, with a yield of 53.5 bpa from 4.575 billion in September.
The wheat complex is currently higher across all three classes, led by the KC contracts, as fresh buyers enter the market. Traders are also likely continuing to cover existing short positions due to concerns that the Middle East conflict is broadening, following yesterday’s Iranian attacks on Israel.
An Australian crop analyst estimates that Australia has lost over 1 million tons of wheat to frost and dry conditions in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, and estimates production could be as low as 27 million metric tons.
North African countries could be increasing their wheat imports from last year by 700k metric tons to 31.9 million metric tons for the 24/25 season, according to world wheat trader Soufflet Group.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn trades higher at midday after getting a boost from the wheat market. December corn has now traded at its highest level since June 28.
USDA’s September 1 stocks were below expectations at 1,760 mb but still above last year’s 1,360 mb number.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings falling slightly to 64% good-to-excellent. 21% of the corn crop is harvested compared to the 5-year average of 18%.
The longshoremen strike has begun with ports affected from Maine down to Texas. This could cause some bearish reaction if the US can’t move grain.
Soybeans are weaker at midday on South American weather which shows rain in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina.
USDA’s September 1 Stocks report was below expectations at 342 mb but above last year’s 264 mb.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings unchanged from last week at 64% good-to-excellent. Harvest jumped higher to 26% from 13% last week.
China will be closed this week for their Golden Week holiday which could result in lower prices if no export sales are announced.
All three wheat contracts are higher at midday on drier weather outlook for US Plains.
USDA’s September 1 Stocks report showed wheat stocks at 1,986 mb which was slightly above expectations and 12% higher from a year ago.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the winter wheat crop as 39% planted, up from 25% last week.
Growing war tensions in the Middle East should be supportive of wheat prices after Israeli troops entered Lebanon over the weekend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts are mostly warm and dry for the US Corn Belt. This should allow harvest progress to accelerate over the coming weeks.
At midday, corn futures are neutral to slightly lower as traders await the Quarterly Stocks report. But in addition, it is also month and quarter end; this could mean that outside markets may also have some influence today as managed money funds square up their positions.
There is still concern about a potential strike that could affect US ports along the East Coast and Gulf if it begins on Tuesday.
According to SovEcon, Russia’s corn crop is expected to amount to 12 mmt, which would be down 30% from last year. In addition, last week Russia’s ag minister increased the corn export tax by 10%.
Private exporters reported sales of 116,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
Soybean planting in Brazil was said to be slow over the weekend, with very scattered rains across the country. However, there are better chances for solid rain in the second week of the forecast with more frequent showers predicted for the dry areas of central Brazil.
China’s Golden Week holiday begins tomorrow, which could slow down demand as they are not expected to purchase US commodities during this time.
A lower palm oil market this morning is weighing on US soybean oil and soybean futures. However, crude oil is positive at midday, which should offer some support.
It remains relatively dry in the US southern Plains, as well as the west-central Midwest. This could cause some planting delays for the 2025 hard red winter wheat crop.
Currently it is still too dry in the Black Sea region. However, some weather forecasters are predicting that current rains in Europe will move east, bringing relief to the drier areas of Russia.
Russian wheat export values continue to remain cheap at $217 per mt FOB. This may keep a lid on US futures, as US wheat exports remain uncompetitive with Russia.
India’s domestic wheat prices are said to have hit a new high, around the equivalent of $9.20 per bushel, and there continues to be talk that they will need to import wheat this year.
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