Despite the report of another flash sale by the USDA, the corn market is trading lower at midday, weighed down by lower wheat and soybeans and potential pre-hedging by grain buyers ahead of this weekend’s harvest activity.
The USDA reported another flash export sale this morning, showing that private exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
The US corn area in drought jumped 14% in this week’s updated Drought Monitor to 76% as the Midwest has seen very little rainfall. By comparison, the corn area experiencing drought one month ago was just 25%.
A system of showers moved through the Midwest Thursday and Friday. While some areas experienced heavier amounts, the overall totals will likely not be enough to build moisture levels or disrupt harvest activity in too many areas.
The soybean market is trading lower at midday on technical selling following yesterday’s bearish reversal in the November contract, and weakness in both soybean meal and oil.
This morning the USDA reported a round of private export sales of soybeans totaling 116,000 metric tons for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year.
Drought has increased across the US. According to this week’s Drought Monitor the soybean area experiencing drought has reached 68%, a 14% increase from last week, and is 38% higher than a month ago.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River are restricting grain flows to the Gulf, which is driving basis levels higher amid increased export demand. Meanwhile, interior basis levels remain firm at many processors, where profitable crush margins keep facilities focused on replenishing supplies.
The wheat complex is trading lower across all three classes of wheat as December Chicago and KC break below their 50-day moving averages, and KC makes fresh lows for the week.
FranceAgriMer reported that France’s winter wheat planting pace is behind schedule, with 21% of the crop planted as of Monday, October 21, well behind the 5-year average of 47%.
The Turkish statistics office released its updated estimate of the country’s wheat crop, dropping it 5.5% to 20.8 million metric tons.
The percentage of winter wheat areas affected by drought has risen from 52% last week to 58%, as many regions continue to experience low rainfall. By comparison, 49% of winter wheat areas were affected by drought at this time last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Strong export sales announcements led to bullish momentum at midday. December corn looks for a fourth day in a row of higher trading.
Weekly export sales for corn came in above expectations at 165 mb. Year-to-date commitments are now at 924 mb, which is up 34% from a year ago.
USDA announced private corn export sales this morning of 228k mt to Japan and 165k mt to unknown destinations for delivery in 24/25.
Ethanol production for the week ending October 18th came in at 1.081 mbpd, up 3.9% from a year ago.
Soybeans are mixed at midday after a positive start to the session. The November contract traded above the 50-day moving average for the first time in 10 days before running into resistance.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 79 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 882 mb, which is up 8% from last year.
USDA announced private soybean export sales of 198k mt to unknown destinations for delivery in 24/25.
The USDA’s Brazilian attaché estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 161 mmt.
All three wheat contracts are trending lower at midday on a strong dollar and potential rainfall in the Plains states.
Weekly export sales for wheat were in line with expectations at 20 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 481 mb, which is up 18% from a year ago.
The London Stock Exchange Group raised their Argentine wheat production estimate 2% to 17.5 mmt.
The USDA’s Australian attaché forecast Australia’s wheat production at 28.5 mmt. This would be down 1.9 mmt from the 10-year average.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Despite the report of another flash sale of corn this morning, the corn market continues chop sideways in a rather tight 3 ½ cent range in the December contract as it consolidates from this week’s rally.
This morning the USDA reported a new private export sale of corn totaling 100,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year. This marks the sixth consecutive day the USDA has reported flash sales of corn, highlighting the fact that demand remains solid for US corn.
According to Anec, Brazil’s corn exports are projected to increase slightly to 6.24 million metric tons this month, up from 6.22 million metric tons in the previous report.
The soybean market is trading mid-range and off its overnight lows as it garners support from flash sales reported this morning, totaling 389,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, soybean meal and oil remain lower at midday.
The USDA reported new private export sales totaling 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 259,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the current 24/25 marketing year.
There are thoughts circulating suggesting that US soybean exporters are hurrying to ship this year’s soybeans before the upcoming US presidential election, driven by concerns over possible policy shifts. This urgency has helped push US soybean export premiums to their highest levels in 14 months.
Anec has revised its October soybean export forecast for Brazil to 4.63 million metric tons, slightly higher than its previous estimate of 4.34 million metric tons.
All three classes in the wheat complex are trading near the tops of their respective ranges at midday after finding buying support near yesterday’s lows.
As of October 20, the EU’s soft wheat exports for the season starting July 1 have declined 31% year-over-year, dropping to 7.02 million metric tons from 10.2 million last year, according to the European Commission.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported that winter crop planting is ahead of last year, with approximately 5.4 million hectares planted so far. This includes 3.8 million hectares of winter wheat, compared to 3.46 million at the same time last year.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday, pushing December corn above the 50-day moving average.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn harvest in the US jumping 8% from last week to 65% complete.
USDA announced a sale of 359,500 mt of corn to Mexico for 24/25 which is adding to the support at midday.
Soybeans are strengthening at midday on some carryover support from yesterday’s export sales announcements.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest in the US improving 14% from last week to 81% complete.
China cut interest rates yesterday which has led some to believe it could boost US exports.
All three wheat contracts are trading higher at midday on lower Russia production estimates.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat is now 73% planted, just below the 5-year average of 76% but up from 64% last week.
SovEcon estimates Russia production for 2025 at 80.1 mmt which is down from 83 mmt last year and would be the smallest crop since the 21/22 season.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading higher at midday as the December contract trades back above the 50-day moving average, with support coming from both higher wheat and soybeans.
Export demand continues to remain strong with the USDA reporting flash sales by private exporters totaling nearly 500,000 mt tons this morning for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. Of that total, 169,926 mt were for Mexico, 130,000 mt for South Korea, and 198,192 were for unknown destinations.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that managed funds sold a whopping 63,259 corn futures contracts in the week ending Tuesday, Oct. 15, ending their buying spree over the last few weeks. As of Oct. 15, managed funds were net short just under 87,000 contracts of corn.
AgRural reported that corn planting in Brazil’s center-south region stands at 48% complete, compared to 46% last year.
Soybeans held Thursday and Friday’s lows and are trading at the upper end of the daily range at midday as they attempt to recover from oversold conditions as soybean harvest begins to wind down. Soybean meal and oil are both higher, with bean oil leading the way.
The USDA reported flash export sales by private exporters totaling 380,000 metric tons to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report released Friday showed that managed funds were net short 40,341 soybean futures contracts as of Tuesday, Oct. 15 after net selling 18,543 contracts of soybeans.
AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean crop is 18% planted, which compares to 30% complete by this time last year. Planting in the key state of Mato Grosso is reported to be 25% complete, versus 60% last year, and the 5-year average of 44%.
The wheat complex is trading higher across the board today, though off the daily highs, as all three futures classes hold support above Friday’s lows and maintain overnight strength.
Managed funds were less active in the wheat than they were in the corn and soybean markets. As of Tuesday, Oct. 15, they bought a net 3,436 Chicago wheat futures contracts, bringing their net short position in Chicago wheat down to 26,013 contracts.
Growing conditions in much of the southern Plains remain dry and showers that moved through over the weekend were less than anticipated, giving a boost the wheat markets today as more will be needed to replenish soil moisture.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market reversed to trade lower after failing to hold gain above the 50-day moving average in the December contract. While weakness in the wheat market and continued harvest pressure are likely weighing on corn prices, they remain above the key 400 support level.
New export sales as reported by the USDA for the 24/25 marketing year came in at 2,225,700 metric tons for the week ending October 10, with export shipments totaling 501,800 mt. Sales were up 82% from the previous week, and higher than the 4-week average, while shipments were 53% below the previous week and 49% below the 4-week average.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, meeting analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used, maintaining the pace required to meet USDA usage targets.
Soybeans turned lower once traders returned from the morning’s market pause, weighed down by sharply lower soybean oil, which is following lower crude and palm oil. Meal still holds a modest gain.
The USDA released its weekly Export Sales report this morning, showing new soybean sales as of October 10, at 1,702,700 metric tons, with exports of 1,852,700 mt. New sales were up 35% from the prior week and 16% above the 4-week average, while exports ran 9% higher than the previous week and noticeably higher than the 4-week average.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 21,000 mt of soybean oil for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year, and 292,800 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, also to be delivered for the 24/25 marketing year.
The Malaysian finance ministry recently reported that it expects lower palm oil prices in the coming year based on higher production due to a higher harvestable area, a better labor market, and favorable weather.
The wheat complex is trading lower at midday led by losses in the Chicago contracts, as forecasts expect much needed rains moving into HRW wheat country this weekend.
In the weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported new wheat sales as of October 10 totaling 504,100 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. This was 16% above the prior week, and 57% above the 4-week average.
Australia’s 24/25 wheat production is projected to rise by 18% to 30.62 million metric tons compared to last year, driven by favorable growing conditions in New South Wales and Western Australia, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region, the country’s seventh-largest grain producer, have declared a state of emergency due to drought and the failure of winter crops. This highlights the lower production figures that have been reported this season.
A front moving through the central and Southern Plains is expected to bring much needed moisture into the region possibly through Monday, with some areas potentially receiving 1-2 inches of rain.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains weaker at midday on improving weather conditions in South America and US harvest progressing rapidly.
December corn is trying to hold the $4 support level but a break below that level could see additional downside.
Ethanol production improved to 1.042 million barrels per day which was up from 1.038 million last week. There was 105 mb of corn used, bringing the total usage for the current marketing year to 609 mb.
Yesterday, the USDA announced a sale of 64 mb of corn to Mexico.
China’s corn harvest continues to progress quickly with 70% of the crop harvested.
Soybeans continue to push lower on rainfall in South America and growing open interest on the short side. November soybeans look to be trading lower for a sixth day in a row.
The possibility of tariffs if Trump is elected has soybeans on the defensive at midday.
EU members approved the deforestation rule delay by one year allowing for businesses to prepare.
China’s soybean harvest continues to move rapidly with an estimated 83% of the crop harvested.
All three wheat contracts are weaker at midday following corn and soybeans lower. Chicago wheat has given back yesterday’s gains trading back near the 576 level.
Russia has announced they will allow Kazakhstan to move grain through their country to reach importers while keeping the ban on imports from Kazakhstan.
FranceAgriMer lowered their forecast of French SRW stocks from 2.75 mmt to 2.50 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is holding its gains from overnight, while maintaining support near yesterday’s lows and the 401 level in the December contract with help from higher wheat and fresh sales to Mexico.
The USDA reported private export sales of corn totaling 1,623,060 metric tons for delivery to Mexico. Of that total, 1,043,940 mt is for the 24/25 marketing year, while 579,120 mt is set to be delivered for the 25/26 season. Additionally, 332,000 mt of corn was sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the current 24/25 marketing year.
The USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. The report showed corn harvest progressing a whopping 17% to 47% complete as of Sunday, October 13, which compares to 42% complete last year and 39% on average.
November soybeans are trading near the lower end of their 14 ¼ cent range, having lost earlier gains due to weakness in the soybean oil market, which is also near the bottom of its daily range. Meanwhile, meal continues to hold its ground, trading higher at midday.
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations totaling 175,000 metric tons. This comes on top of the 131,000 mt sold to China for 24/25 reported yesterday.
The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, issued yesterday afternoon, indicated that the soybean harvest advanced a massive 20% to 67% complete as of Sunday. This year’s soybean harvest is now 10% ahead of last year, and 16% ahead of the 5-year average.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed a record number of soybeans were crushed for the month of September, totaling 177.32 million bushels, well ahead of expectations. Despite the record crush total, soybean oil stocks saw a sixth month of decline, coming in at just 1.066 billion pounds, the smallest month-end supply since 2014.
Rain continues to move across the parched areas of Brazil, improving planting conditions there, while conditions look to remain favorable for harvest across much of the nation’s mid-section for the next 5-7 days.
The wheat complex is trading higher across all three futures classes, rebounding from support near yesterday’s lows. The markets may also be finding support near key moving averages, such as the 200-day moving average in December Chicago and the 50-day moving average in both December KC and Minneapolis.
The USDA reported in its weekly Crop Progress report, issued yesterday afternoon, that winter wheat planting is now 64% complete as of Sunday, just behind the 5-year average of 66% complete, and last year’s 65%.
Russia’s union of grain exporters instituted its first public wheat-export price indicator, derived from survey data. The indicator currently shows October prices at $240 per metric ton, with November and December prices indicated at $245 and $250/mt respectively.
While much of the nation’s mid-section is dry and wide open for harvest, much needed rain is expected to move into the southern Plains later this week, which will help with planting and emergence of the winter wheat crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Weakness in corn is driven by a sharp selloff in crude oil. December corn now trades under the 50-day moving average for the first time since September 23.
Conab estimates Brazilian corn production at 119.7 mmt versus the USDA at 127 mmt.
Corn shipments into Mexico will be temporarily delayed due to a train derailment at the US/Mexico border.
Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on improving weather in South America.
NOPA crush is expected slightly above 170 mb in September compared to 165.5 mb last year and 158 mb in August.
Conab estimates Brazilian soybean production at 166 mt for the 24/25 crop.
The wheat complex is weaker at midday on a stronger dollar and chances of rainfall in the US Plains over the next 6-10 days.
Conab estimates Brazilian wheat production at 8.26 mmt which was unchanged from last month.
The French Ag Ministry estimates that wheat production is down 27.6% from last year at 25.4 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading towards the bottom of its current 5-cent range in the December contract as it continues to digest higher production estimates than were expected in Friday’s USDA WASDE report.
On Friday the USDA updated its supply and demand numbers for the 24/25 marketing year. Yield was raised slightly to 183.8 bpa, which put production above trade estimates at 15.203 billion bushels. While 24/25 ending stocks were lower than the September projection, they too were above the average trade guess at 1.999 billion bushels.
The CFTC also issued its Commitment of Traders report Friday afternoon, showing that Managed funds covered another 44,000 contracts of their net short positions in the corn futures market. This brought the Managed funds’ net short position to a minimal 23,729 contracts.
Crop analyst APK-Inform, lowered its corn export forecast for Ukraine by 11%, dropping it from 22.5 million metric tons to 20 mmt, largely due to lower production.
November soybeans are trading a little lower, though in the middle of their trading range, caught between a rebound in soybean meal, which is currently trading higher and at the top end of its range, and lower bean oil, which is trading at its lows following weaker crude oil.
Soybean planting has reached 9.3% complete in Brazil, according to consulting firm Patria Agronegocios, versus 17.4% complete at the same time last year. While the current planting pace is behind, it is expected to pick up now that the country’s rainy season has arrived.
Friday’s WASDE report was largely unchanged from September’s projections and contained no surprises for the trade. Yield and production were left nearly unchanged at 53.1 bpa and 4.582 billion bushels, while ending stocks were also unchanged from September at 550 million bushels.
Updated Commitment of Traders data released Friday showed Managed funds covering another 13,088 soybean futures contracts, bringing total net short positions in the soybean market to 21,798.
The wheat complex is trading lower across all three futures classes as sellers remain active following Friday’s weak trade, as rains are expected to move through HRW regions later this week.
In Friday’s updated WASDE report, the USDA only made minor changes to the US balance sheet, lowering it to 812 million bushels, where the trade expected 819 mb. The World balance sheet for wheat increased to 257.72 million metric tons, where the trade expected a reduction to 256.14 mmt.
Friday’s COT update showed that Managed funds sold just under 6,500 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which brought their total net short position in Chicago wheat to 29,449 contracts.
According to a Reuters report, Russia is setting a floor of $250 per metric ton on exported wheat to international buyers. This appears to be an effort to slow export sales as the nation deals with lower production forecasts. To that point, SovEcon lowered its projection of Russian wheat production for the 2024 season to 81.5 mmt, from 82.9 mmt.
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