Corn is falling at midday on limited market news. Managed money traders look to keep the market supported on breaks after adding to their long position yesterday.
USDA confirmed a sale of 170,400 mt of US corn to Mexico for delivery in 24/25.
The French farm ministry raised their corn production estimate from 14.62 mmt last month to 15.00 mmt this month.
Soybeans remain weaker at midday on favorable weather conditions in South America. The March contract pushed to new contract lows at $9.7250.
USDA confirmed two soybean sales for delivery in 24/25. Spain took 187,000 mt while 132,000 mt were sold to unknown destinations.
Yesterday’s NOPA report showed members crushed 193.185 mb of soybeans. This was below average trade estimates but still the highest on record for November.
Soyoil stocks increased to 1.084 billion pounds, up from 1.074 billion pounds in October but remain at 10-year lows for the month.
The wheat complex is mostly higher led by the KC contracts though all three classes are trading off their session highs, with Chicago trading closer to session lows.
Wheat is finding support from lower production numbers in Russia and quality concerns in the EU, but World buyers are slow to buy due to their low currency values.
Russia’s State Statistics Service Rosstat, stated that the country’s grain reserves dropped 21% year-over-year as of Dec. 1, with its wheat reserves falling 24.6% to 18.7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains higher at midday, trading within a relatively tight 3 ¾ cent range, as light bull spreading supports the front months over the deferred contracts.
The corn market continues to balance solid ethanol and export demand against the potential for record global supplies in 2025, which offers resistance.
Some in the trade believe U.S. domestic and export demand is underestimated by the USDA, with potential underestimation as high as 110 mb.
Soybeans turned mostly lower at midday, as the market remains caught between solid demand and the prospect of large South American crops. Dry conditions in Argentina are supporting soybean meal, while weak demand for palm oil is dragging on soybean oil.
US lawmakers sent a letter to the EPA urging increased verification and restrictions on the import of suspected fake used cooking oil, which competes directly with US soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock.
Overall, South American weather remains favorable for soybean growth. Brazil has received good moisture, with more on the way, while Argentina has some dry areas that will need additional rain in the coming weeks to maintain good crop conditions.
The NOPA crush report, set for release later today, is expected to show a total of 196.7 million bushels — just 3 million bushels short of the October record. High crush volumes have led to excess soybean meal supplies.
The wheat complex is mostly higher led by the KC contracts though all three classes are trading off their session highs, with Chicago trading closer to session lows.
Wheat is finding support from lower production numbers in Russia and quality concerns in the EU, but World buyers are slow to buy due to their low currency values.
Russia’s State Statistics Service Rosstat, stated that the country’s grain reserves dropped 21% year-over-year as of Dec. 1, with its wheat reserves falling 24.6% to 18.7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is quietly trading lower and near the bottom of its very tight 2 ½ cent range. It found initial support near the 20-day moving average, with selling pressure remaining from yesterday’s weak export sales.
Weekly export sales were at an eleven-week low for the week ending December 5, totaling 947,000 mt. However, they remain 29% ahead of last year.
The market’s concern is whether these strong sales are front-loaded ahead of the incoming Trump administration.
The strong US dollar, which makes US exports more expensive on the world market, combined with yesterday’s weak export sales report and solid crop estimates out of South America, is keeping sellers engaged.
Soybeans remain lower at midday as sellers maintain control following yesterday’s weak export sales report, with prospects for a large South American soybean crop remaining high.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 200,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 marketing year.
Conab raised its projection for Brazil’s soybean crop slightly to 166.21 mmt, while Abiove increased its estimate to 168.7 mmt. By comparison, the USDA’s estimate stands at 169 mmt.
While yesterday’s weekly export sales came in well below expectations, total commitments remain 12% ahead of last year.
After showing small gains in the overnight session, the wheat complex turned mostly lower as technical selling reemerged following yesterday’s weak trade.
According to GIWA, Western Australia is on track for its third-largest grain harvest on record, expected to produce 10.83 mmt of wheat, which is 0.5 mmt higher than November’s estimate.
Argentina’s 24/25 wheat production estimate has been raised by 0.5 mmt, with over half the crop now harvested. In contrast, reports suggest that Russia, a larger producer, may face production cuts, potentially supporting prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn continues to trend lower at midday on weak export sales announcements and nearly unchanged South American production estimates.
Weekly export sales for corn came in at an 11-week low of 37 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.383 billion bushels which is up 29% from last year.
Conab lowered their Brazilian corn production estimate slightly from 119.81 mmt to 119.63 mmt.
Rosario Grain Exchange left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 50-51 mmt.
Yesterday’s ethanol data showed corn usage for the week ending December 6th at 108.76 mb, which is well above the average weekly pace needed to hit the USDA’s forecast of 5.500 billion bushels.
Soybeans have reversed lower at midday after weekly export sales came in below expectations. March soybeans are finding support right on the 13-day moving average but continue to trade in a narrow window this week.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in below expectations at 43 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.370 billion bushels which is 12% higher than a year ago.
The USDA confirmed the sale of 334,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations for 24/25. This could help to limit any additional downside.
Conab’s soybean production estimate for Brazil came in below expectations of 168.63 mmt at 166.21.
The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their soybean production estimate for Argentina unchanged at 53-53.5 mmt.
Wheat reverses lower at midday on disappointing export sales. March SRW futures are currently trading above the 13-day moving average but remain about 20 cents below the 50-day moving average.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at the low end of expectations at 11 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 582 mb which is 9% higher than a year ago.
Conab slightly lowered their Brazil wheat production estimate to 8.06 mmt from 8.11 mmt last month.
The Rosario Grain Exchange modestly raised their Argentine wheat production estimate from 18.8 mmt last month to 19.3 mmt.
Fundamentally, there are still plenty of bullish factors that could provide momentum to the upside. Lower projected exports for Russia in December, dry weather forecasts in the US Plains states and tighter global supplies are just a few.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is firm at midday as it struggles to extend Tuesday’s rally against overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average in the March contract.
The December WASDE report revealed stronger-than-expected demand for US corn. The USDA increased export estimates by 150 mb and ethanol use by 50 mb, bringing total projected corn usage for the 24/25 marketing year to 15.19 bb—a record high by 221 mb if realized.
Managed funds are estimated to have bought 24,000 corn futures contracts on yesterday’s rally, extending their net long position to a net 135,000 contracts.
Open interest in corn also increased yesterday by about 27,000 contracts suggesting fresh money is entering the corn market on the long side.
Soybeans are higher at midday, supported by gains in soybean oil and potential further short-covering.
The December WASDE report left the US balance sheet unchanged, with only a small increase in Argentina’s production and no changes to Brazil’s production.
Yesterday’s rally in the soybean market prompted managed fund short covering, with funds covering an estimated 5,000 soybean futures contracts, bringing their estimated net short to 74,000 contracts.
Open interest in soybean futures decreased by about 10,500 contracts during yesterday’s rally, suggesting short position holders are exiting the market.
The wheat complex is higher at midday as traders look to extend Tuesday’s gains on friendly USDA numbers.
As of December 8, stocks of hard red spring wheat held in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses were down 26% from this time last year, at 13.959 million bushels.
The December WASDE report leaned bullish, with the USDA lowering US ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 795 mb. This reduction was much greater than expected by the trade and has helped support the market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has reversed slightly higher at midday on anticipation that the USDA will increase US exports while showing tighter world ending stocks in today’s WASDE report.
Safras announced that 2024 second crop corn sales in Center-South Brazil have reached 77.7% of the total expected production. This compares to the five-year average of 74.9% sold for the same period.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reported that early Argentine corn is 70% excellent. Favorable weather has helped to keep soil moisture levels adequate leading to less crop stress.
China was seen lowering their 24/25 corn production forecast by about 1% to 293.84 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday on what would appear to be profit taking ahead of what is expected to be a bearish WASDE report for the soy complex.
Both Argentine and Brazil soybean production is expected to increase along with world ending stocks which could pressure the market lower.
AgRural reported that Brazil soybean planting has reached 95% as of December 5. This compares to 91% from a week ago and 91% from the same week last year.
China was seen raising their 24/25 soybean production number from 20.54 mmt last month to 20.65 mmt this month.
All three wheat classes are higher at midday on anticipation of lower US ending stocks and a potential drop in Russian wheat production.
SovEcon announced they are considering lowering Russia’s wheat crop due to poor weather conditions. The current estimate for wheat production is 81.6 mmt.
The US weather outlook remains dry for the Plains states over the next 10 days, which will help to keep support under the market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is firm and trading near mid-range after testing the late November highs around 442. Strong domestic and export demand supports the market, while promising South American crop prospects limit gains.
Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is expected to show US ending stocks dropping to 1.902 bb from 1.938 bb, with little change in South American production. Brazil’s corn crop is estimated at 127.1 mmt and Argentina’s at 50.7 mmt.
Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed Managed funds selling a net 9,222 corn futures contracts as of December 3, lowering their net long to 88,220 contracts.
Soybeans are trading near session lows after a 10-cent gain in January futures, pressured by lower soybean oil and meal prices that are well off session highs.
Strength in soybean meal may stem from drier conditions in Argentina, the world’s largest meal exporter. While rain is forecast, coverage is expected to be spotty rather than widespread.
Trade may remain choppy ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report, with few changes expected. The trade projects US soybean ending stocks at 467 mb, Brazil’s production at 169.4 mmt, and Argentina’s at 51.4 mmt.
Friday’s COT report showed managed funds covering 9,255 soybean contracts as of December 3, reducing their net short position to 72,217 contracts.
All three wheat classes remain higher at midday as buyers follow through on strength from last week’s lows.
Trade expects minimal changes in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report, with US ending stocks projected at 814 mb and global stocks at 257.7 mmt.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed funds sold 10,268 Chicago wheat contracts, increasing their net short to 69,386, and 7,769 KC wheat contracts, bringing that net short to 38,430.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains firm at midday on follow-through buying from yesterday’s bullish reversal off trendline support and solid export sales.
Strong weekly export sales, that were well above expectations, continue to be supportive, with total commitments now 33% ahead of last year at 1.346 bb.
The USDA will release updated supply and demand numbers on Tuesday. Early trade projections estimate a 32 mb drop in US corn carryout from last month to 1.906 bb, if realized could lend support to prices.
Soybeans turned lower at midday as they continue to look for direction, caught between supportive demand and rising South American crop estimates, ahead of next week’s USDA report.
Soybean oil is higher as it follows through on yesterday’s gains after rallying off trendline support on very strong export sales. Meanwhile March meal is setting new contract lows, pressuring soybeans.
Strong export sales that are pushing total commitments 12% ahead of last year at 1.33 bb, and record crush demand have supported prices, but rising SA crop estimates are a major headwind.
Early trade estimates for next week’s USDA report project ending stocks at 469 mb, down slightly from last month’s 470 mb, though an export sales increase could lower stocks further and support prices.
The wheat complex is mostly lower, consolidating yesterday’s rally as trendline resistance and higher Canadian production estimates cap gains.
Statistics Canada raised its estimate for the Canadian wheat crop to 35 mmt, 665,000 mt higher than trade estimates.
Wheat found support yesterday from reports of lower Russian supplies due to poor crop conditions and quality concerns with Australia’s crop.
Early trade estimates for next week’s USDA report predict US wheat carryout to come in at 814 mb (down 1 mb) with global stocks rising slightly to 257.7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher at midday after export sales announcements beat expectations.
Weekly export sales for corn came in above expectations at 68 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.346 bb, which is 33% higher than a year ago.
South American crop production remains favorable. Brazil’s Parana state agency reported that 95% of the corn crop is rated as good.
LSEG raised their Brazil corn production number slightly to 126.7 mmt which is just below the USDA’s 127 mmt projection.
Soybeans remain higher at midday, getting support from strong export sales announcements.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at the upper end of expectations at 85 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.330 bb, which is 12% ahead of last year’s pace.
Deral announced that crop conditions in Brazil continue to remain favorable with 92% of the Parana state crop rated as good.
All three wheat contracts are higher at midday on reports of poor Russian winter wheat crop ratings. Winter wheat ratings in the country are 31% good, which is well below last year’s rating of 74%.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 14 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 571 mb, which is 19% better than last year.
Ukraine’s July-December wheat exports reached 9 mmt, which is up over 50% from last year.
LSEG made changes to their world wheat outlook. They increased Chinese production 1% to 141.6 mmt while also raising Australia’s wheat production 5% to 30.9 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market remains soft at midday while it trades in the middle of its range after trading on both sides of unchanged in a tight 2 ½ – 4-cent range.
Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.073 million barrels/day, below expectations, with stocks at 23.003 million barrels — higher than the prior week but still below estimates.
The EU agreed to delay its deforestation law, which restricts imports of ag goods from deforested land, by one year. The law could significantly affect ag giants like Brazil and Indonesia, potentially benefiting US exports.
The soybean complex remains under pressure at midday as South American weather remains favorable for production, and the delay in 45Z biofuel tax credit guidance adds pressure to bean oil.
The USDA announced a sale of 30,000 mt of soybean oil to South Korea for 24/25 delivery, briefly boosting the market before gains faded.
The Biden administration stated that it won’t finalize 45Z fuel tax credit guidance before the end of its term, a development that continues to pressure the soybean oil and corn markets.
Malaysian palm oil stocks fell 4.3% in November and 25% year-over-year. The decline, due to harvest and transportation disruptions, has supported prices, now at a premium to soybean oil.
The wheat complex remains in negative territory at midday, led by losses in the Chicago wheat contracts as they trade through nearby support and post fresh contract lows.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that the country’s total grain exports have increased 39% year-over-year for the season that began July 1, with total wheat exports up nearly 55% at 8.96 mmt.
The rise in Black Sea wheat exports has come largely at the expense of European Union wheat exports. EU soft-wheat exports for the season that began July 1 have dropped 31% to 9.48 mmt as of Dec. 1 from 13.8 mmt last year according to the European Commission.
With largely favorable global wheat crop conditions, some believe many buyers remain sidelined, waiting for lower prices, keeping market rally potential limited.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
