MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’25
446.5
0.25
JUL ’25
454.75
0.25
DEC ’25
437.25
-0.5
Soybeans
JAN ’25
968
-6.5
MAR ’25
974
-5.25
NOV ’25
984.75
-2.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25
540
7
MAY ’25
550.25
7.5
JUL ’25
557.25
7
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25
551.5
6.75
MAY ’25
559.25
6.75
JUL ’25
566.5
5.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25
595.25
5
JUL ’25
610.5
4.5
SEP ’25
620
5
S&P 500
MAR ’25
5994
-7.75
Crude Oil
FEB ’25
68.81
-0.65
Gold
FEB ’25
2625.4
-19.7
The corn market is mixed and near unchanged in quiet two-sided trade with little fresh news in a shortened holiday week.
This morning the USDA announced private export sales totaling 132,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year.
According to Friday’s CFTC report, managed funds sold 6,475 corn contracts during the week ending December 17, reducing their net long position to 159,415 contracts as of Tuesday, December 17.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting progress has reached 65.8%, up from 55.6% the previous week.
Soybeans are trading near the low end of their trading range despite a flash sale to China, with pressure coming from lower soybean meal on reports of unexpected weekend rainfall in Argentina.
This morning the USDA announced private export sales totaling 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds selling 17,932 soybean futures contracts as of Tuesday, December 17, increasing their net short position to 76,252 contracts.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 76.6% of Argentina’s soybean crop has been planted, up from 65.7% the previous week, with a total planted area of 18.6 million hectares.
The wheat complex is higher across all three classes as traders begin to square positions ahead of the Christmas holiday break with little fresh news to trade.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds selling 20,622 Chicago wheat contracts, increasing their net short position to 87,401 contracts. In KC wheat, funds covered 3,369 contracts, reducing their net short position to 33,067 contracts. Meanwhile, funds bought 4,045 Minneapolis wheat futures to bring their net short position to 27,017 contracts.
SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat crop estimate by 3 mmt to 78.7 mmt, the smallest crop since 2021. Reduced Russian production could support higher wheat futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24: The CME closes at 12:15 p.m. (CT), and Total Farm Marketing offices close at 1:00 p.m. (CT). There will be no End of Day Grain Market Insider
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 25: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
MAR ’25
438
0.75
JUL ’25
447.25
0
DEC ’25
432
-1
Soybeans
JAN ’25
959.25
7.5
MAR ’25
961.25
8
NOV ’25
972.5
6.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25
532.5
-8.75
MAY ’25
542.75
-9
JUL ’25
550.25
-8.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25
543
-5.75
MAY ’25
551.25
-5.5
JUL ’25
559
-5.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25
586.25
-5.75
JUL ’25
603
-4.5
SEP ’25
614.25
-3
S&P 500
MAR ’25
5961.25
21
Crude Oil
FEB ’25
69.39
-0.63
Gold
FEB ’25
2603.3
-50
Corn continues its positive momentum, trading higher as we hit midday, supported by strong export demand and a tighter supply outlook highlighted in the USDA’s Supply and Demand report released last week.
The USDA has confirmed the sale of 150,000 MT of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in the 24/25 year. Year-to-date U.S. corn exports are up 31% compared to the same period in the 23/24 year.
While U.S. exports are strong in 24/25, this growth is expected to slow as the South American corn harvest becomes available.
Soybeans continue to show strength at midday, driven by soybean meal, while soybean oil remains lower.
U.S. soybean exports have increased by 22% in the 24/25 year compared to the same period in 23/24. However, these strong exports are expected to decline as global buyers anticipate a robust harvest in South America.
Weather conditions in Brazil continue to bring scattered showers, with favorable conditions expected through the year-end, aiding the filling of soybean pods. In southern South America, precipitation remains below normal, but it is timely enough to support soybean growth.
Wheat faces resistance at midday, trading lower due to strong export competition and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Earlier this week, Russia lowered its 2025 wheat crop forecast by 4%. This projected decline in Russia’s wheat production, the world’s top wheat exporter, could provide support for wheat prices, potentially driving them higher.
Since the start of the 24/25 marketing year on July 1st, U.S. wheat exports are up 28% compared to the same period in 23/24. However, the current strong export pace may face resistance due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, which could hinder foreign demand.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn continues to trend weaker at midday on an increasing US dollar and weaker wheat market.
Weekly corn export sales came in at 46.2 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.429 billion bushels.
Estimates for Brazil’s corn crop vary from one group to another, but most forecasts remain above the USDA’s 127 mmt. Investment group Patria estimates Brazil’s corn crop at 129.27 mmt while LSEG estimates the crop at 127.3 mmt.
China’s Sino grain announced they will restrict sales on auction out of their corn reserves due to corn futures in China trading at contract lows.
The soy complex continues to strengthen at midday after yesterday’s sharp pullback. March soybeans are bouncing off contract lows but remain about 44 cents off the 50-day moving average.
Weekly soybean export sales came in at 52 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.422 billion bushels.
The USDA confirmed the sale of 227,200 mt of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. The sale will be split for delivery in 24/25 and 25/26.
Investment group, Patria, estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 170.41 mmt versus the USDA’s 169 mmt estimate.
All three wheat classes continue to weaken at midday on a stronger dollar and recent increases to global wheat production estimates.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 16.8 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 593 mb.
Strategie Grains has raised their EU SRW wheat production estimate to 126.6 mmt for 25/26, compared to 114.2 mmt last year.
According to India’s Food Secretary, the country does not see a need to import wheat despite high domestic prices in the country. However, with the break this week, there have been several tenders this week between Thailand, Tunisia, South Korea, and Algeria.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn surrendered earlier gains and is now trading near the bottom of its 5 ½ cent range, pressured by sharply lower soybeans despite reports of another flash sale and solid ethanol production.
The USDA reported private exporters sold 135,000 mt of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.
A federal budget bill under consideration includes a provision for nationwide, year-round sales of 15% ethanol blends, which could add 35–40 mb of corn usage to the US balance sheet.
Ethanol production for the week ending Dec. 13 averaged 1.103 million barrels/day, with estimated corn use at 111.28 million bushels, well above the 104.41 mb needed to meet USDA projections.
Soybeans remain sharply lower at midday, under pressure from both products. Soybean meal is currently down over $6/ton, while bean oil is about 100 points lower.
The USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.
The 40B tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expires this year, and without 45Z guidance, biodiesel and SAF production may decline, reducing soybean oil demand and pressuring bean oil and soybeans.
One factor in this sell-off, which has driven soybeans to new contract lows, is the devaluation of the Brazilian real against the rising US dollar. This has made Brazil significantly more competitive in global exports.
The wheat complex remains higher across the board, though off session highs, as it gains support from Russian production cuts and higher Paris milling wheat.
Ukrainian grain exports are up 22% year-over-year, including 9.2 mmt of wheat, a 37% increase from last season.
SovEcon reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to 78.7 mmt, the lowest since 2021 and down 3 mmt. This reduction in Russian production could support higher wheat futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is falling at midday on limited market news. Managed money traders look to keep the market supported on breaks after adding to their long position yesterday.
USDA confirmed a sale of 170,400 mt of US corn to Mexico for delivery in 24/25.
The French farm ministry raised their corn production estimate from 14.62 mmt last month to 15.00 mmt this month.
Soybeans remain weaker at midday on favorable weather conditions in South America. The March contract pushed to new contract lows at $9.7250.
USDA confirmed two soybean sales for delivery in 24/25. Spain took 187,000 mt while 132,000 mt were sold to unknown destinations.
Yesterday’s NOPA report showed members crushed 193.185 mb of soybeans. This was below average trade estimates but still the highest on record for November.
Soyoil stocks increased to 1.084 billion pounds, up from 1.074 billion pounds in October but remain at 10-year lows for the month.
The wheat complex is mostly higher led by the KC contracts though all three classes are trading off their session highs, with Chicago trading closer to session lows.
Wheat is finding support from lower production numbers in Russia and quality concerns in the EU, but World buyers are slow to buy due to their low currency values.
Russia’s State Statistics Service Rosstat, stated that the country’s grain reserves dropped 21% year-over-year as of Dec. 1, with its wheat reserves falling 24.6% to 18.7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains higher at midday, trading within a relatively tight 3 ¾ cent range, as light bull spreading supports the front months over the deferred contracts.
The corn market continues to balance solid ethanol and export demand against the potential for record global supplies in 2025, which offers resistance.
Some in the trade believe U.S. domestic and export demand is underestimated by the USDA, with potential underestimation as high as 110 mb.
Soybeans turned mostly lower at midday, as the market remains caught between solid demand and the prospect of large South American crops. Dry conditions in Argentina are supporting soybean meal, while weak demand for palm oil is dragging on soybean oil.
US lawmakers sent a letter to the EPA urging increased verification and restrictions on the import of suspected fake used cooking oil, which competes directly with US soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock.
Overall, South American weather remains favorable for soybean growth. Brazil has received good moisture, with more on the way, while Argentina has some dry areas that will need additional rain in the coming weeks to maintain good crop conditions.
The NOPA crush report, set for release later today, is expected to show a total of 196.7 million bushels — just 3 million bushels short of the October record. High crush volumes have led to excess soybean meal supplies.
The wheat complex is mostly higher led by the KC contracts though all three classes are trading off their session highs, with Chicago trading closer to session lows.
Wheat is finding support from lower production numbers in Russia and quality concerns in the EU, but World buyers are slow to buy due to their low currency values.
Russia’s State Statistics Service Rosstat, stated that the country’s grain reserves dropped 21% year-over-year as of Dec. 1, with its wheat reserves falling 24.6% to 18.7 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is quietly trading lower and near the bottom of its very tight 2 ½ cent range. It found initial support near the 20-day moving average, with selling pressure remaining from yesterday’s weak export sales.
Weekly export sales were at an eleven-week low for the week ending December 5, totaling 947,000 mt. However, they remain 29% ahead of last year.
The market’s concern is whether these strong sales are front-loaded ahead of the incoming Trump administration.
The strong US dollar, which makes US exports more expensive on the world market, combined with yesterday’s weak export sales report and solid crop estimates out of South America, is keeping sellers engaged.
Soybeans remain lower at midday as sellers maintain control following yesterday’s weak export sales report, with prospects for a large South American soybean crop remaining high.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 200,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 marketing year.
Conab raised its projection for Brazil’s soybean crop slightly to 166.21 mmt, while Abiove increased its estimate to 168.7 mmt. By comparison, the USDA’s estimate stands at 169 mmt.
While yesterday’s weekly export sales came in well below expectations, total commitments remain 12% ahead of last year.
After showing small gains in the overnight session, the wheat complex turned mostly lower as technical selling reemerged following yesterday’s weak trade.
According to GIWA, Western Australia is on track for its third-largest grain harvest on record, expected to produce 10.83 mmt of wheat, which is 0.5 mmt higher than November’s estimate.
Argentina’s 24/25 wheat production estimate has been raised by 0.5 mmt, with over half the crop now harvested. In contrast, reports suggest that Russia, a larger producer, may face production cuts, potentially supporting prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn continues to trend lower at midday on weak export sales announcements and nearly unchanged South American production estimates.
Weekly export sales for corn came in at an 11-week low of 37 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.383 billion bushels which is up 29% from last year.
Conab lowered their Brazilian corn production estimate slightly from 119.81 mmt to 119.63 mmt.
Rosario Grain Exchange left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 50-51 mmt.
Yesterday’s ethanol data showed corn usage for the week ending December 6th at 108.76 mb, which is well above the average weekly pace needed to hit the USDA’s forecast of 5.500 billion bushels.
Soybeans have reversed lower at midday after weekly export sales came in below expectations. March soybeans are finding support right on the 13-day moving average but continue to trade in a narrow window this week.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in below expectations at 43 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.370 billion bushels which is 12% higher than a year ago.
The USDA confirmed the sale of 334,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations for 24/25. This could help to limit any additional downside.
Conab’s soybean production estimate for Brazil came in below expectations of 168.63 mmt at 166.21.
The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their soybean production estimate for Argentina unchanged at 53-53.5 mmt.
Wheat reverses lower at midday on disappointing export sales. March SRW futures are currently trading above the 13-day moving average but remain about 20 cents below the 50-day moving average.
Weekly export sales for wheat came in at the low end of expectations at 11 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 582 mb which is 9% higher than a year ago.
Conab slightly lowered their Brazil wheat production estimate to 8.06 mmt from 8.11 mmt last month.
The Rosario Grain Exchange modestly raised their Argentine wheat production estimate from 18.8 mmt last month to 19.3 mmt.
Fundamentally, there are still plenty of bullish factors that could provide momentum to the upside. Lower projected exports for Russia in December, dry weather forecasts in the US Plains states and tighter global supplies are just a few.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is firm at midday as it struggles to extend Tuesday’s rally against overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average in the March contract.
The December WASDE report revealed stronger-than-expected demand for US corn. The USDA increased export estimates by 150 mb and ethanol use by 50 mb, bringing total projected corn usage for the 24/25 marketing year to 15.19 bb—a record high by 221 mb if realized.
Managed funds are estimated to have bought 24,000 corn futures contracts on yesterday’s rally, extending their net long position to a net 135,000 contracts.
Open interest in corn also increased yesterday by about 27,000 contracts suggesting fresh money is entering the corn market on the long side.
Soybeans are higher at midday, supported by gains in soybean oil and potential further short-covering.
The December WASDE report left the US balance sheet unchanged, with only a small increase in Argentina’s production and no changes to Brazil’s production.
Yesterday’s rally in the soybean market prompted managed fund short covering, with funds covering an estimated 5,000 soybean futures contracts, bringing their estimated net short to 74,000 contracts.
Open interest in soybean futures decreased by about 10,500 contracts during yesterday’s rally, suggesting short position holders are exiting the market.
The wheat complex is higher at midday as traders look to extend Tuesday’s gains on friendly USDA numbers.
As of December 8, stocks of hard red spring wheat held in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses were down 26% from this time last year, at 13.959 million bushels.
The December WASDE report leaned bullish, with the USDA lowering US ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 795 mb. This reduction was much greater than expected by the trade and has helped support the market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has reversed slightly higher at midday on anticipation that the USDA will increase US exports while showing tighter world ending stocks in today’s WASDE report.
Safras announced that 2024 second crop corn sales in Center-South Brazil have reached 77.7% of the total expected production. This compares to the five-year average of 74.9% sold for the same period.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reported that early Argentine corn is 70% excellent. Favorable weather has helped to keep soil moisture levels adequate leading to less crop stress.
China was seen lowering their 24/25 corn production forecast by about 1% to 293.84 mmt.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday on what would appear to be profit taking ahead of what is expected to be a bearish WASDE report for the soy complex.
Both Argentine and Brazil soybean production is expected to increase along with world ending stocks which could pressure the market lower.
AgRural reported that Brazil soybean planting has reached 95% as of December 5. This compares to 91% from a week ago and 91% from the same week last year.
China was seen raising their 24/25 soybean production number from 20.54 mmt last month to 20.65 mmt this month.
All three wheat classes are higher at midday on anticipation of lower US ending stocks and a potential drop in Russian wheat production.
SovEcon announced they are considering lowering Russia’s wheat crop due to poor weather conditions. The current estimate for wheat production is 81.6 mmt.
The US weather outlook remains dry for the Plains states over the next 10 days, which will help to keep support under the market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
