Midday

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• At midday, corn prices dropped as rains in South America alleviated some of the drought stress on crops, coupled with the confirmation of the tariff start date.
• The corn market remains volatile and under pressure after President Trump confirmed yesterday that tariffs will not be delayed and are set to take effect on March 4. Traders, however, remain skeptical about the implementation date, as negotiations are ongoing through the weekend.
• The Outlook Forum kept ethanol projections unchanged for the 2025/2026 season, while lowering exports by 50 million bushels. U.S. corn plantings are expected to increase by 3.8%, reaching 94 million acres in 2025, compared to 90.6 million acres in 2024.
• Argentina’s corn harvest has started and is 5.4% complete. Crop conditions improved by 3% last week, with 21% of the corn now rated as good/excellent.

• Soybeans turned lower at midday across the entire soy complex as the market remains under pressure from tariff concerns and expectations of a record crop in Brazil.
• USDA confirms the sale of 20,000 tons of US soy oil for delivery to unknown destinations in the 24/25 year.
• Brazilian soybean prices are significantly lower than those in the U.S., with newly harvested beans now available. China continues to cancel previously purchased U.S. beans in favor of the cheaper South American supply.
• Argentina’s soybean crop conditions rose 7% last week to 24% of the crop now good/excellent as weather conditions improve in the area.

• Wheat trades lower at midday as global supply increases and export challenges are expected to persist.
• Wheat exports are projected at 850 mb for the 2025/2026 marketing year, unchanged from the current year. The U.S. is expected to face competition from other wheat suppliers, including Russia. USDA’s Chief Economist noted that the U.S. is likely to continue experiencing export challenges in the 2025/2026 year.
• Weather in the eastern Corn Belt over the next five days is expected to bring increased moisture, while the western plains will remain dry. Yesterday’s drought monitor continues to show dry conditions across much of the plains, which could stress the wheat crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn prices continue to trade lower at midday after the USDA was seen increasing corn acres and ending stocks.
• The USDA estimates that 25/26 corn acres are at 94 million, up from 90.6 million acres this season. Ending stocks are seen at 1.965 billion bushels, above trade expectations and well above the 1.540 billion bushels last season.
• Weekly export sales for corn came in at the low end of trade expectations at 36 mb. Old Crop commitments total 1.916 billion bushels, up 28% from last year.

• Soybeans are finding support at midday after the Outlook Forum showed soybean acres and ending stocks falling for the 25/26 season.
• The USDA pegs soybean acres at 84 million for the 25/26 season which is below last season’s 87 million acres. Ending stocks are seen at 320 mb, well below the current season’s 380 mb.
• Weekly export sales for soybeans totaled 15 mb, which were in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.622 billion bushels, up 14% from a year ago.

• Wheat prices are sliding lower at midday after wheat acres and ending stocks were seen increasing for the 25/26 season.
• The USDA increased the all-wheat acreage number for the 25/26 season from 46.1 million acres to 47 million acres. Ending stocks were seen increasing to 826 mb, up from the current estimate of 794 mb.
• Weekly export sales for wheat came in at the low end of expectations at 10 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 733 mb, up 10% from last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn prices are trading lower at midday, still receiving pressure from increased spring planting estimates and favorable rain conditions in South America.
• As the spring planting season approaches, the production outlook for the United States is becoming more optimistic. The USDA is scheduled to release its spring planting estimates on Thursday morning, with expectations pointing to a higher corn acreage forecast.
• Heavy rainfall across much of Argentina has provided much-needed relief to the country’s corn crops. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, over 3.9 inches of rain have already fallen, with more precipitation expected in the coming days.
• The safrinha corn planting in Argentina has hit 65%, while the 1^st crop corn harvest in Brazil’s Parana state has reached 42% complete.

• Soybeans are trending lower at midday, pressured by ongoing rains in Argentina and the continued Brazil harvest. The entire soy complex is seeing losses at midday.
• Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Brazil soybean estimate by 1 mt, now slightly above the USDA’s forecast at 169 mt, citing dry conditions in the southern growing regions. The estimate for Argentina remains unchanged at 48 mt.
• The estimated soybean harvest in Paraná is 40% complete and continues to make progress as favorable weather conditions persist.
• U.S. soybean plantings are expected to decrease by 3.1% in 2025 compared to 2024, but yields are projected to average 52.1 bpa, up from 50.7 bpa in 2024.

• Wheat prices are softer at midday on increasing rainfall chances across the plains states, specifically in Kansas.
• The USDA’s state condition report showed Oklahoma winter wheat conditions declining 6% to 34% good-to-excellent. Texas improved 4% to 37% good-to-excellent.
• SovEcon estimates Russia’s wheat exports for February could total just 2 mmt which is down from 4.1 mmt from February 2024.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn prices continue to struggle at midday amid the proposed tariffs for Mexico and Canada which are scheduled to start on March 4.
• AgRural estimates that Brazil’s safrina corn crop is 64% planted, compared to 73% planted at this time last year.
• AgroConsult estimates Ukraine’s corn production could reach 30.5 mmt this year, up 17% year-over-year.

• Soybean prices remain mostly weaker at midday on beneficial rainfalls slated for Brazil this week which will help to improve crop conditions.
• AgRural lowered their forecast for Brazil’s soybean production from 171 mmt to 168.2 mmt.
• Brazil has made a push on harvest pace which now stands at 39% complete, compared to 40% done this time last year.

• Wheat prices are softer at midday on increasing rainfall chances across the plains states, specifically in Kansas.
• The USDA’s state condition report showed Oklahoma winter wheat conditions declining 6% to 34% good-to-excellent. Texas improved 4% to 37% good-to-excellent.
• SovEcon estimates Russia’s wheat exports for February could total just 2 mmt which is down from 4.1 mmt from February 2024.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn futures are lower to start the week due to improved weather conditions in Argentina and steady planting progress in Brazil.
• Brazil’s second crop corn planting in Mato Grosso, the country’s largest corn-producing state, has accelerated in recent weeks after a slow start. As of Friday, planting reached 67% complete, aligning with the five-year average but still trailing last year’s pace.
• May corn futures breached technical support, falling below the 20-day moving average to start the week. Corn has not recorded consecutive closes below this level since early December.

• Soybean futures are lower to start the week, following the downward trend in corn and wheat futures.
• A wetter forecast in Argentina for the coming week is expected to further improve crop condition ratings, which saw a slight increase last week.
• AgRural has lowered its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to 168.2 million metric tons from last month’s 171 million, citing lower yield projections in the south. As of late last week, Brazil’s soybean harvest was 39% complete, close to the 40% recorded at this time last year.

• Wheat futures are leading the grain complex lower on Monday, following the sharp decline in Paris milling wheat, which gapped lower to start the week.
• Warmer temperatures in the U.S. Plains this week are likely reducing weather risk premiums in the winter wheat markets.
• Despite closing lower in three of the last four trading sessions, wheat futures remain in an uptrend and continue to hold above key moving averages.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn MAR ’25 493.5 -4.5 JUL ’25 511.5 -5.25 DEC ’25 476 -3.5 Soybeans MAR ’25 1040 -5.5 JUL ’25 1073 -4.75 NOV ’25 1059.25 -2 Chicago Wheat MAR ’25 589.25 3.75 JUL ’25 617.5 3.5 JUL ’26 659.5 2.5 K.C. Wheat MAR ’25 611.5 4 JUL ’25 637 5 JUL ’26 666 0 Mpls Wheat MAR ’25 633 0.25 JUL ’25 661 0.75 SEP ’25 671.25 1.75 S&P 500 MAR ’25 6103.75 -32.75 Crude Oil APR ’25 70.89 -1.59 Gold APR ’25 2947.2 -8.9

Corn prices remain weaker at midday on chances of rainfall next week in Argentina. Weekly corn export sales came in at 57 mb, which was in line with trade estimates. Year-to-date commitments total 1.885 billion bushels, up 29% from a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that corn conditions in Argentina improved 3% from last week to 19% good-to-excellent. Ag lender, CoBank, sees corn acreage in the US at 94.55 million acres, up from 90.6 last year.

Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on improving harvest progress in Brazil and chances of rain next week in Argentina. Weekly soybean export sales totaled 18 mb, which was on the high end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.607 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. CoBank projects lower planted acres for soybeans compared to last year at 84 million acres. Argentina’s crush for January came in above expectations at 2.896 mmt, but was well below December’s 3.649 mmt.

Wheat prices are firm at midday on expected dry conditions in the Plains states over the next two weeks. Weekly wheat export sales came in above trade expectations at 23 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 726 mb, up 11% from a year ago. The International Grains Council has raised their global wheat production estimate by 1 mmt to 797 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.   Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.

• Corn prices remain weaker at midday on chances of rainfall next week in Argentina.
• Weekly corn export sales came in at 57 mb, which was in line with trade estimates. Year-to-date commitments total 1.885 billion bushels, up 29% from a year ago.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that corn conditions in Argentina improved 3% from last week to 19% good-to-excellent.
• Ag lender, CoBank, sees corn acreage in the US at 94.55 million acres, up from 90.6 last year.

• Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday on improving harvest progress in Brazil and chances of rain next week in Argentina.
• Weekly soybean export sales totaled 18 mb, which was on the high end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.607 billion bushels, up 13% from last year.
• CoBank projects lower planted acres for soybeans compared to last year at 84 million acres.
• Argentina’s crush for January came in above expectations at 2.896 mmt, but was well below December’s 3.649 mmt.

• Wheat prices are firm at midday on expected dry conditions in the Plains states over the next two weeks.
• Weekly wheat export sales came in above trade expectations at 23 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 726 mb, up 11% from a year ago.
• The International Grains Council has raised their global wheat production estimate by 1 mmt to 797 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn prices continue to trade higher at midday on support from yesterday’s news that the Thai feed industry was considering purchasing $2.8 billion worth of US agriculture commodities.
• Argentina corn production is forecasted slightly higher to 47.9 mmt due to favorable rainfall throughout the region.
• Nutrien Ag Solutions estimates that corn acreage is up to 93 million acres, up from 90.6 million acres a year ago. They suggest a record fertilizer sales year could be on the way.

• Soybean prices remain firm at midday, getting support from lowered production forecasts globally.
• The International Grains Council has lowered the global soybean production estimate from 420 mmt to 418 mmt.
• Agroconsult lowered their estimate for Brazil’s soybean output by 1.1 mmt to 171.3 mmt. Despite the large cut in production, Brazil is still expected to see a record

• Wheat prices have turned lower at midday on warmer weather next week for the Midwest and Plains states.
• According to the French Agriculture Ministry, French farmers have planted 6.35 million hectares of wheat, up 7.2% from last year.
• Russia’s grain exports are expected to reach 55-57 mmt, down from 71 mmt last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn prices trade higher at midday, supported by increased demand for U.S. corn and a new wave of buying driven by inflation concerns.
• Recent rains and cooler temperatures have provided much-needed relief to drought-stressed corn crops in Argentina, with additional rainfall expected over the next 15 days in key growing regions.
• Safrinha corn planting remains behind schedule but is expected to accelerate as ongoing dry weather facilitates progress in the soybean harvest.
• The Thai feed mill industry is exploring the import of $2.8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural commodities, including a significant amount of corn, in an effort to bypass tariffs.

• Soybeans trade higher at midday, along with corn. While soybean and soybean meal prices are gaining, soybean oil is trending lower. Traders worry if prices will hold up to growing harvest pressure in Brazil.
• Continued dry weather in Brazil is helping advance the soybean harvest, although it remains behind schedule. Meanwhile, rains in southern Brazil and Argentina are slowing the crop decline, though heat and drought stress have already inflicted some irreversible damage.
• A large Brazilian harvest is expected to slow U.S. soybean exports to China, with 72% of Brazil’s bean crop destined for the country, compared to 53% of the U.S. crop. U.S. exports are likely to decline this spring as China is expected to favor South American beans due to tariffs.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange states the core Argentine crop region production is expected to be down to 16.5 mt vs the early season estimates of 19.5.

• Wheat prices trade lower at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and uncertainties surrounding weather conditions in major wheat-producing regions.
• Well-below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Plains are expected to persist through Friday, with little to no snow in the forecast. Overnight temperatures are anticipated to drop to the -20s to -30s, raising concerns among traders about whether the current snow cover is sufficient to protect crops from potential winterkill damage.
• Wheat markets continue to receive support from a recent uptick in import demand, along with persistent cold weather in both the Black Sea region and the U.S. Temperatures in Russia remain low, with little to no snow cover.
• Reuters reported that Russian exporters will be able to deliver no more than 8.1 mmt of wheat by the end of the 2024/25 season, significantly below their permitted quota. The Russian government is allowing traders to export as much wheat as possible during the first half of the season, from July to February, but impose export restrictions through quotas in the second half.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher at midday, supported by a tighter global supply outlook.
• The corn market, previously focused on the improving weather conditions in South America, is now shifting its attention to the strong demand for U.S. corn. This shift is driven by the potential influence of President Trump in persuading global buyers to ‘Buy American.’ Additionally, the recent decline in the U.S. dollar has sparked a surge in demand for U.S. corn exports.
• AgRural reports that safrinha corn planting is 36% complete, compared to 59% at this time last year, due to a delayed soybean harvest caused by wet weather. This delay is leaving producers scrambling to get the corn planted within the ideal climate window.
• Recent strength in the corn markets suggests that traders believe tariffs on Mexico can be avoided by March 1st and that U.S. exports will not be significantly impacted.

• Soybeans are trending higher at midday, with the entire soy complex gaining support from declining U.S. exports and improved weather conditions in South America.
• Much-needed rains fell across Argentina over the weekend, with the 6-10 day forecast indicating the possibility of additional rainfall. This has brought much-needed relief to the soybean crop in the region.
• Brazil’s weather looks to be mostly dry until late in next week. AgRural says Brazil’s soybean harvest is 23% complete compared to 32% a year ago. IMEA reports the Mato Gasso harvest is 50% done.
• With soybean exports declining and weather conditions improving in South America, the potential for significant price increases in soybeans is likely to be limited.

• Wheat is trading higher at midday, supported by the recent decline in the U.S. dollar and the strengthening of global grain prices.
• Polar temperatures have moved into the U.S. Plains, but snow from recent and upcoming storms is expected to insulate the crops, preventing further winterkill damage—except in South Dakota, where snow cover is lacking. The weather in the Plains is forecasted to dramatically warm up after this week.
• Russia is expecting another cold snap this week, but upcoming storms are expected to bring snow that will help insulate the crops. According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices have risen by $2 this week, reaching $247 per ton. Russian wheat exports have increased for the fourth consecutive week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 17, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn continues higher at midday as it continues to gain support from a tightening global supply outlook.
• USDA confirms the sale of 100,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia in 24/25.
• A slow soybean harvest in Brazil is delaying the planting of safrinha corn, and a reduced corn crop in Argentina is improving the outlook for U.S. corn exports.
• Rains in Argentina are helping to slow the decline in crop conditions, though some crops may be too far gone as the country continues to lower crop ratings.

• Soybean prices continue to climb at midday, supported by drier weather in Argentina and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit a new two-month low overnight. Soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is experiencing some losses.
• Rain has returned to Brazil, causing delays in the soybean harvest. However, the forecast for next week calls for more isolated showers, which should help resume harvest progress.
• Weekly soybean export sales were weak yesterday, and the trend is expected to persist as harvested supplies become more available in South America.
• The market continues to respond to tariff news, as President Trump announced yesterday that reciprocal tariffs will not take effect until April, allowing time for negotiations.

• Wheat prices are moving higher at midday, supported by ongoing winterkill concerns across the U.S. Plains and a decline in the U.S. dollar.
• Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. Plains and the Black Sea region for freeze risks to the winter wheat crop as another cold snap moves through areas already showing signs of winterkilled patches. However, the forecasted snow may provide much-needed protection to the crops.
• World weather uncertainty for 2025 may be providing support to the wheat market, as dry conditions persist in Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Russia is expected to experience a cold snap next week, which could further stress crops.
• The USDA reduced China’s demand for wheat, corn, and soybeans by 22 mmt, while weekly wheat export sales are estimated to range from 200 to 600 mt, compared to 438 mt last week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.