Corn futures are experiencing a pullback at midday, driven by weakness in the wheat markets, along with President Trump’s threats of significantly higher tariffs if Canada and Mexico collaborate against the US.
The corn markets continue to show weakness in Friday’s trade as traders await the USDA report set to be released on Monday. The USDA is expected to estimate corn acreage at 94.36 million, significantly higher than last year’s 90.6 million.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange pegged Argentine conditions at 27% good/excellent, down 2% from last week and compared to 22% last year. Harvest in this area is estimated to be 19.2% completed.
The soybean market remains on a downward trend at midday as traders position themselves ahead of what is expected to be a volatile trading session on Monday, with the release of the USDA’s anticipated acreage report and a potential tariff announcement next week. Meanwhile, soybean oil continues to gain momentum, posting gains.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s bean conditions 1% to 32% good to excellent compared to 31% last year.
Argentina’s soybean sales so far have been the slowest in 10 years at 8.4 million tons, or 18% of the crop, due to worries over a weakening currency.
AgroConsult, following a recent crop tour, raised their Brazilian production forecast to 172.1 million tons, up from the USDA’s estimate of 169 million tons, citing record yields in six Brazilian states.
In the US, the central and eastern Corn Belt regions are expected to receive rainfall over the next week, which should significantly improve soil moisture levels before planting, though it may also cause some delays in fieldwork.
The entire wheat complex is trading lower at midday, driven by improvements in global wheat growing regions, weak demand, and a soft technical outlook.
Wheat is facing pressure from improved chances of rain in the Black Sea region next week, along with showers expected in eastern Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota over the next five days. However, this rainfall is forecast to miss the Southwest Plains once again.
Monday’s USDA report is expecting all wheat seedings at 46.48 million acres, up from 46.10 in 2024 and quarterly stocks are expected at 1.215 billion bushels, up from 1.087 in March last year.
The potential activation of the Black Sea transportation agreement has caused Romanian and Bulgarian wheat prices to drop sharply, although US SRW remains the cheapest origin.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices are softer at midday on continued pressure from larger expected corn acres for this season.
Weekly export sales for corn totaled 40.9 mb, which was toward the upper end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments are at 2.088 billion bushels, up from 1.689 billion bushels last year.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has raised their total corn crop estimate for 2025 by 4.7% to 14.6 mmt. According to the committee, this would be 13% larger than 2024’s crop total.
Soybean futures are gaining momentum at midday on concerns over smaller bean acres in the US.
Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 11.6 mb, which was on the low end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 1.681 billion bushels, up from 1.482 billion bushels last year.
Brazil’s soybean harvest has rapidly progressed as weather conditions have turned warmer and drier allowing for quick progression. Current production estimates sit at 169.3 mmt, which is down less than 1% from the previous estimate.
According to Anec, Brazil’s soybean exports could reach a record during March. Shipments are estimated to reach between 15-16.1 mmt, which compares to 13.5 mmt during March 2024.
Wheat prices remain lower at midday on rain chances for much of the Central Plains states and Eastern corn belt.
Weekly export sales for wheat totaled 4.1 mb, which was on the low end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 767.9 mb, up from 688.3 mb last year.
The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 mt of US wheat to Taiwan overnight.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are still persistent as their proposed agreement has not been activated yet. Russia has said they will move forward with the black sea grain agreement but not before they have access to the global SWIFT payment system, which the US has not confirmed the reinstatement yet.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices turn lower at midday as traders await the release of the USDA’s reports, scheduled for Monday, March 31.
Corn remains under pressure due to expectations that U.S. farmers will increase their corn production to historically high levels this spring. U.S. farmers are projected to plant 94.36 million acres of corn this year, up 4.2% from 90.59 million acres in 2024.
Traders continue to closely monitor tariff developments ahead of President Trump’s planned announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which has sparked widespread concern over the future of U.S. agricultural exports.
Early corn planting in the southern US is advancing rapidly with 45% of the corn crop planted in Texas, based on a USDA report.
Ethanol production slowed to an 8-week low at 310 million gallons, down from 325 million the previous week. There was 105.5 million bushels of corn used in the production process.
Soybeans continue to rise at midday, despite ongoing pressure from weaker U.S. exports and expectations of a large crop from South America. Both soybeans and soybean oil are trading higher, while soybean meal is mixed.
Brazil’s soybean crop, projected to reach a record production high, was 77% harvested as of late last week, up from 69% at the same time in 2024.
Based on a Reuters survey, US soybean plantings are expected to come in at 83.76 million acres, down 3.8% from 87.05 million acres in 2024.
European Union soybean imports for the 2024/2025 season reached 9.84 mmt at the start of this week, a 7% increase compared to the same time last year, according to data from the European Commission.
Over the next 10 days, Brazil and Argentina are expected to receive rainfall, which will support ongoing crop development.
Wheat prices continue to decline at midday, supported by forecasts of rainfall in the Black Sea and central Plains crop regions. Additionally, improved conditions for SRW wheat in parts of the U.S are contributing to the downward movement.
Wheat futures are also under pressure as the Black Sea grain corridor is expected to reopen following an agreement between the U.S and Russia, ensuring safe passage for exports.
U.S. all-wheat plantings for the upcoming crop year are projected to total 46.48 million acres, based on a Reuters survey.
Grain consultancy Sovecon said that it downgraded its Russian wheat export forecast for the 24/25 season to 40.7 mmt from 42.2 mmt. But it also increased the 25/26 season export forecast to 39.1 mmt from 38.9 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices continue to drift lower at midday as much of the Eastern corn belt is expected to see rain this next week.
Corn planting is well under way for much of the Southern US. Louisiana sits at 61% planted, followed by Texas at 45%, Mississippi at 14%, and Oklahoma at 10%.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reported that corn harvest in Argentina has reached 23% but continues to advance at a slow pace due to high humidities.
Soybean futures continue to be choppy at midday with limited news and continued tariff uncertainties.
The US and China are scheduled to meet sometime this week to discuss how to move forward amid the ongoing trade war. Tensions are still high between the two countries so a deal may not be made right away.
AgRural lowered their soybean production estimate for Brazil to 165.9 mmt, well below the USDA’s projection of 169 mmt. As of March 20, 77% of the crop was harvested, compared to 70% complete last week and 69% the same week last year.
Wheat prices remain weaker at midday on forecasted weather calling for rainfall for much of the SRW growing areas in the US over the next week.
Winter wheat ratings were seen improving 1% to 49% good-to-excellent for Kansas. Oklahoma continues to be hampered by drought conditions and severe weather threats. Good-to-excellent ratings for the state fell 9% to 37%.
The USDA Attache in Mexico City reported that 25/26 production could only amount to 1.6 mmt, which would be down 40% from last season.
IKAR has raised their Russian wheat production forecast for the 25/26 season from 81 mmt to 82.5 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices continue to decline at midday as traders remain focused on tariff policy developments and await the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, scheduled for March 31.
Corn futures continue to extend Friday’s losses, driven by concerns that U.S. tariffs may dampen demand for U.S. agricultural products and expectations that the USDA will forecast a sharp increase in corn acreage this spring.
Traders are closely monitoring South American weather, which appears favorable for the safrinha corn growing areas over the next 7-10 days. Brazil is expected to receive beneficial rains in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, with no extreme heat anticipated across the country’s crop regions.
At the U.G. Gulf Coast, basis bids for corn continued to rise on Friday due to limited farmer selling and slow barge movement along the Mississippi River, traders told Reuters. Repairs and winter closures throughout the river system have also caused delays in barge tows.
Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday as futures struggle with slower demand for U.S. soybean exports, coupled with lower predicted U.S. acreage for 2025. The entire soybean complex is posting losses at midday.
Soybean prices remain under pressure this week due to declining U.S. exports, expectations of a large South American crop, and escalating trade disputes. If these disputes persist, they could weaken foreign demand for U.S. agricultural products.
Brazilian consultant AgRural has lowered its forecast for the country’s soybean harvest to 165.9 mmt, a reduction of 2.6 mmt from the previous estimate. This decrease is attributed to drought conditions that affected production in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state.
This week, the U.S. Trade Representative is expected to begin talks with his Chinese counterpart, marking the start of potential trade deal negotiations. However, with the large volume of soybeans coming out of Brazil, it is doubtful that China will be in any rush to reach an agreement.
All three classes of wheat remain lower, still pressured by last week’s rebound in the U.S. dollar. However, the market retains underlying support from tightening global supplies and ongoing weather damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Wheat futures remain lower due to the potential revival of the Black Sea Grain Transport Initiative and a cease-fire. Over the weekend, the U.S. envoy stated that the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are moving toward a peace deal.
Continued dryness is expected across most of the Black Sea region, though some areas have received rainfall. IKAR raised its Russian wheat estimate to 82.5 million metric tons, up from 81.0 million, due to improvements in the southern and central regions.
Weather continues to pressure wheat prices, despite the most recent weather system passing through the Southern Plains and missing key wheat production areas. Additionally, little to no rain is forecasted for the upcoming week. Traders will begin monitoring U.S. state condition ratings for insights into yield potential as wheat emerges from dormancy and begins to green up across Kansas.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices dip at midday as traders monitor potential tariff policy changes and await the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 31st.
Brazilian corn prices continue to climb, fueling ongoing rumors that Brazil may be purchasing U.S. corn. While the rising prices make this possibility more plausible, there has been no official confirmation yet.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange said Argentine harvest is 13.6% complete. The weather is expected to be dry for a couple more days, than rains are expected which could delay harvest.
The U.S. corn area continues to be under drought, but the drought monitor dropped 2% down to 53%, which is still up compared to 34% a year ago. Although some precipitation is expected across the eastern Corn Belt, the western part is still expected to be dry.
Soybean prices remain under pressure at midday as traders digest yesterday’s disappointing export sales report and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. While soybean meal is seeing some gains, soybeans and soybean oil continue to trade lower.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange raised the Argentine soybean conditions to 29% good to excellent, up from 24% last week and 31% at this time last year. They also lowered the Argentine production number by 1 million tons to 48.6 million.
The Mato Grosso soybean harvest is now 97% complete compared to the 93% average at this time.
With U.S. tariffs still in place, China is expected to source soybeans exclusively from Brazil. However, Brazil’s exportable soybean supply may be depleted by late summer, which could create an opportunity for U.S. soybean exports to fill the gap.
U.S. soybean areas under drought dropped by 4% last week to 42%, compared to 30% a year ago.
Wheat turns mixed at midday, supported by tightening global supplies and ongoing concerns about potential weather-related damage to the winter wheat crop in the U.S.
Weather concerns continue over the health of the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains, as dryness is expected to persist for the next two weeks. The portion of the U.S. winter wheat area affected by drought increased by 7% last week, now reaching 34%, compared to 17% at this time last year.
Wheat prices continue to face pressure following yesterday’s export sales report, which showed negative old crop exports due to cancellations.
The International Grains Council lowered global wheat stocks to 259 million tons, down from 265 last month.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn remains higher at midday, supported by strong weekly export sales announcements.
Weekly corn export sales came in at 61 mb, which was in line with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 2.048 billion bushels, up 25% from last year.
Much of the Midwest is slated to see some precipitation over the next 7-10 days but favors mostly the eastern Corn Belt.
Soybean prices remain pressured at midday by poor weekly export sales results from last week.
Weekly soybean export sales came in below expectations at 13 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.669 billion bushels, up 13% from a year ago.
Abiove lowered their Brazil soybean production estimate for 2025 from 171.7 mmt to 170.9 mmt. This compares to the USDA’s estimate of 169 mmt.
The USDA attaché in Beijing sees Chinese soybean imports reaching 106 mmt for 25/26.
Wheat prices remain soft at midday amid a rising dollar and potential acreage increases in the upcoming acreage report.
Weekly wheat export sales came in at 10 mb, which was below trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 766 mb, up 13% from last year.
Prices may find support on dips as drought conditions persist through much of the Southern Plains and Black Sea region.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures remain mixed, as prices continue to face pressure due to expectations of a significant increase in planted acreage this spring, along with ongoing concerns about tariffs, as President Trump maintains an aggressive stance.
Yesterday S&P Global Commodity Insights increased its 2025 planted corn estimate for US corn to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 acres from the previous forecast in January and up 3.7 million acres from 2024.
The Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is nearing completion, with 89.6% of the crop planted as of this week, compared to 92.3% at the same time last year and the five-year average of 90.4%. While the lack of abundant rain in recent weeks has allowed producers to make significant planting progress, additional rainfall is needed to ensure the crops continues to develop.
While corn demand has remained strong this year, China’s corn imports for January and February were the slowest in seven years, down 97% compared to the same period in 2024.
Ethanol production jumped to 325 million gallons, up from 312 million the previous week and up 5.6% from the YA.
Soybean futures turn lower at midday, continuing to face pressure from sluggish U.S. exports and expectations of a large crop from South America. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil turn lower at midday.
Heavy rains are forecast to arrive in the Pampas at the end of the week, potentially slowing the soybean harvest. However, the lack of rainfall in Brazil is allowing the harvest to progress smoothly. As of this week, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 69.8% complete, compared to 61.6% at this time last year and the five-year average of 64.9%.
Tariff negotiations continue to weigh on the soybean markets, as the lack of dialogue with China regarding trade limits any potential rallies, heightening concerns about the future of U.S. soybean demand.
U.S. soybean prices would be competitive with Brazil if not for the 10% tariff, as Brazilian soybean premiums have recently risen. To support prices, strong domestic soybean demand in the U.S. is crucial, as exports decline with a large volume of soybeans now available in Brazil.
Wheat markets remain mixed at midday, driven by ongoing weather concerns across the U.S.
Light precipitation has moved through western Kansas, but the rest of the southern Plains remain dry with very high winds. The extended forecast for the southern Plains offers little promise of rain over the next two weeks and beyond, with temperatures expected to remain above normal for the foreseeable future.
S&P Global has lowered its estimate for 2025 U.S. wheat acreage by 500,000 acres to 46.6 million, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 46.1 million.
LSEG left their Russian production estimate unchanged at 79.6 million tons vs the USDA at 81.5.
The phone call between President Trump and President Putin did not result in a ceasefire agreement; instead, they agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Ukraine accused Russia of attacking energy infrastructure within hours of the call. Trump and Zelensky are expected to speak today.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices are soft at midday, pressured by weather forecasts which show rain for much of the Midwest over the next week.
Brazil’s government is ready to move forward with raising the ethanol blend in the country to 30%, up from 27% currently.
Corn planting in Texas is viewed as 32% complete, which is in line with last year but 1% lower than the 5-year average.
Soybean futures remain slightly higher at midday on forecasted rainfall in South America which would slow their harvest progression.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush came in at a 5-month low at 177.87 mb, down from 187.9 mb in January. Bean oil stocks hit an 8-month high of 1.503 billion bushels in February.
Indonesia is set to raise their palm oil export tax from the current 3%-7.5% to 4.5%-10% to support the mandate to increase palm oil usage in biodiesel.
President Trump hinted at the possibility that an agreement between the US and China could come in the near future which could give the soy-complex a boost.
Wheat prices remain steady at midday on support from warm and dry conditions in the US southern Plains states.
Yesterday’s weekly crop report showed US winter wheat ratings declining in both Kansas and Colorado by 4% and 7% to 48% and 60% respectively. Oklahoma and Texas good-to-excellent ratings were unchanged from the week prior at 28% and 48% respectively.
President Trump and Russia’s Putin are expected to have a phone call today about a potential ceasefire agreement.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
A warmer, drier forecast for Brazil through the end of the month is adding weather premium back into the corn market to start the week.
Managed money funds shed more net long positions than expected in Friday’s COT report, cutting holdings to 132,000 contracts as of last Tuesday—down sharply from over 361,000 in early February.
U.S. corn demand remains solid, with export sales running 25% ahead of last year, while both ethanol demand and production continue to outpace last year’s levels.
Soybeans are slightly lower to start the week as harvest continues to progress in both Brazil and Argentina.
Weakness in palm oil futures is adding pressure, though midday soybean oil futures are holding onto slight gains.
Despite recent weakness, soybean futures continue to find solid support around the $10 level. This psychological threshold has acted as a magnet for front-month futures since September, with prices spending very little time trading significantly above or below it.
Wheat prices are higher to start the week as warmer, drier-than-normal conditions persist across the U.S. Plains.
Strong export demand and a weaker U.S. dollar are likely encouraging fresh buying after last week’s price decline.
Traders remain cautious as reciprocal tariffs are expected to take effect in early April, adding uncertainty to trade relations.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
