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9-12 Midday: Corn and Soybeans Higher Ahead of WASDE, Wheat Lower

  • Corn prices are continuing to see some short covering going into this morning’s WASDE report. December corn is trading 5-00 higher to $4.24-3/4.
  • Expectations for today’s WASDE report are to show both corn yield and ending stocks being cut. This has led to some support in prices for the past few days.
  • Brazil has increased their corn production estimate for the 2024/25 season to 139.67 mmt compared to a previous estimate of 137 mmt.

  • Soybeans are finding strength at midday as expectations in today’s report are to show yield and ending stocks lower than previously reported. November soybeans are 10-1/2 higher to $10.43-3/4.
  • Conab has raised their soybean production estimate in Brazil by 1.82 mmt from last month to 171.47 mmt.
  • NOPA soybean cruch for August is estimated to reach 182.857 mb. If realized, crush for August would be down 6.6% from July but up nearly 16% from August of last year.

  • Wheat prices are cooling off at midday as the market awaits what is expected to be a somewhat neutral report. December Chicago futures are 1-3/4 lower to $5.19-3/4.
  • Conab has cut their wheat production forecast for Brazil to 7.54 mmt. This is down from the groups previous estimate of 7.81 mmt.
  • Wheat exports continue to outpace last year’s numbers. However, cheap Black Sea supplies are causing some competition as the world’s top wheat buyer, Egypt, has been a recent buyer of Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgarian supplies.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-11 Midday: Grain Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

  • The corn market is trading mixed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report, with expectations of a moderate decline in yield and production.
  • Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to show corn yield at 186.2 BPA, down from 188.8 BPA in last month’s estimate. New crop ending stocks are projected at 2.011 billion bushels, a decrease from last month’s 2.117 billion.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its 2024/25 Argentine corn production estimate by 1.5 million metric tons to 50 million, and its 2025/26 forecast to 61 million, driven by a 10% increase in planted area.
  • Early yield estimates from Missouri to southern Illinois have been disappointing, as a dry finish and disease pressure have taken a toll on crop performance.

  • Soybeans are trading higher at midday, seeing a modest bounce ahead of tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand report, with expectations that soybean yield will be revised slightly lower compared to last month’s estimate.
  • Last month’s USDA supply and demand report pegged soybean yield at 53.6 bushels per acre (BPA), but this month’s estimate is expected to dip slightly to 53.3 BPA due to drier weather in key growing regions and the impact of disease-affected crops.
  • Trade tensions with China remain a major concern for the soybean market, with tomorrow’s new crop export figures expected to provide key insight into whether the USDA anticipates progress toward a deal. At this time last year, China had already booked 12–13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the September–November shipment window. So far this year, no purchases have been reported.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentine’s bean production in 25/26 to be down 2.5 million tons from the current season to 47 million tons, on a 4.3% drop in planted area.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday, as the market lacks fresh headlines and expectations remain low for any major surprises in tomorrow’s USDA report.
  • With abundant global supply and competitively low prices from Russia and the EU, U.S. wheat is likely to struggle to rally until global supplies tighten and prices in those regions begin to rise.
  • Expana raised its EU soft red wheat (SRW) harvest estimate overnight to a record high of 136.1 million metric tons, up 3.3 million from its previous projection. Russia’s wheat crop estimate was also revised higher, adding further pressure to the global supply outlook.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-10 Midday: Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure

  • Corn continues to edge lower at midday, with daily trading volume slowing ahead of Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report. Traders appear cautiously optimistic about the upcoming estimates. December corn is down 2 cents at 417 ¼.
  • Strong demand continues to support the corn market, with U.S. corn prices remaining competitive. This suggests that the USDA is unlikely to make any significant revisions in Friday’s supply and demand report.
  • Dry conditions are expected to persist across the central and eastern Midwest over the next two weeks, accompanied by rising temperatures.
  • Ukraine has raised its production estimates due to a strong crop outlook, while parts of the EU may face yield losses as heavy rains and storms have caused crop damage.
  • Ethanol production rose to 325 million gallons for the week ending Friday, August 29th, up from 316 million the previous week and 2.3% higher year-over-year. This marks the highest production level in 12 weeks and exceeded market expectations. Approximately 110 million bushels of corn were used in the production process.

  • The soybean market remains under pressure amid the continued absence of Chinese demand, as China has already secured 95% of its October needs from Brazil. November soybeans are down 4.6 cents at 1027 ¼ at midday.
  • Concerns are mounting that the USDA may be forced to lower new crop export estimates in Friday’s supply and demand report due to the continued lack of Chinese purchases. If this trend persists, the U.S. could potentially lose over 15 million tons of soybean demand from China by year-end.
  • Soybean planting has begun in Brazil; however, soil moisture levels in Mato Grosso are currently the lowest in 10 years, according to South American weather service EarthDaily Agro.
  • Dry weather persists across the eastern half of the Corn Belt, with limited chances of rain in the northern Plains. Rising temperatures are helping to eliminate frost risk for the remainder of the month.

  • Wheat continues to move lower at midday as there is little to no fresh news to put any drive under the wheat markets.  December Chicago wheat is 3.4 cents lower at 517 ¼.
  • Chicago wheat prices remain under pressure, showing little to no movement over the past five sessions, as weak global prices continue to weigh on U.S. futures.
  • No significant changes or surprises are expected for wheat in Friday’s USDA report.
  • LSEG raised its Ukraine wheat production estimate by 3.3% from last month but left Canadian production unchanged.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-9 Midday: Grains Mostly Lower at Midday

  • Corn futures are weaker at midday, pulled down by the wheat market. December corn is 1-0 lower to $4.20-3/4 while the March contract is 1-0 lower to $4.38-1/2.
  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings falling 1 point to 68% good-to-excellent. This compares to 64% good-excellent at this time last year. Harvest is on track with last year at 4% complete.
  • S&P Global pegs US corn yield is 189.1 bpa, above the USDA’s estimate of 188.8 bpa. Expectations for this Friday’s WASDE report are that the USDA will adjust their yield estimate lower.

  • Soybeans are being pulled lower by lack of Chinese demand despite higher Brazil prices and a weaker dollar. November soybeans are down 0-3/4 to $10.33-00, while the January contract is a penny lower to $10.51-3/4.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings dropped 1 point to 64% good-to-excellent. This is down 1 point from last year’s conditions at 65% good-to-excellent.
  • According to AgRural, Brazil has just started soybean seeding in the Parana region with just 0.2% of the area planted. This compares to 0% at through the same week last year.

  • All three wheat classes are lower at midday despite the US dollar index hitting a 6-week low. December Chicago wheat is trading 2-1/4 lower to $5.21-1/2.
  • Spring wheat harvest advanced 13% from last week to 85% complete. Harvest is now slightly ahead of last year’s pace. Winter wheat plantings are seen at 5% done, just below the 5-year average of 6% planted at this time.
  • SovEcon has raised their wheat production forecast for Russia to 86.1 mmt, up from the groups previous estimate of 85.4 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-8 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday Monday

  • December corn futures are down 1-1/2 cents at 416-1/2 here at midday Monday.
  • The California Senate approved E15 gasoline last week, making the state the last in the nation to legalize its sale. The move is expected to ease pump prices for Californians, who face the highest fuel costs in the U.S.
  • Corn has lost a bit of its competitive edge as both South American and Ukraine corn premiums have fallen hard lately. Ukraine has begun its corn harvest and APK Inform again raised total Ukraine grain production by 5.6 million metric tons (mmt) to 58.8 mmt. Corn harvest is pegged at 30.3 mmt.

  • November soybean futures are 1-1/4 cents lower at 1025-3/4 to start the week.
  • Weekend frost in the northern Corn Belt likely cut short grain fill in late-developing soybeans, with Minnesota and North Dakota facing the heaviest damage.
  • Over the past four months, China’s soybean imports have run at a record pace—yet none have come from the U.S. This raises trader concerns that even if a trade deal is reached, China’s appetite for U.S. soybeans may remain limited.

  • Wheat futures are higher this morning with December Chicago wheat 2 cents higher at 521-1/4. December Spring wheat futures are 3-3/4 cents higher at 569-3/4.
  • U.S. spring wheat harvest is in its final stretch, with spot basis levels weakening. In the Southern Plains, hard red winter wheat basis is reported at 95 under futures, making wheat more competitive with corn.
  • Argentina’s wheat crop was likely damaged by recent frost, with additional frost events expected this week that could further impact production.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-5 Midday: Grains Gain Midday Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

  • The corn market continues to trade higher at midday, supported by growing weather concerns as drought conditions expand and frost is forecasted in the northern half of the Corn Belt within the next two weeks.
  • Dry conditions across the Midwest are expected to persist over the next two weeks, with the percentage of corn under drought rising by 4%.
  • Weather and crop disease pressures have led most analysts to expect the USDA to lower yield estimates in next week’s Supply and Demand report. StoneX has already adjusted its projection to 186.9 bushels per acre, down from 188.1 last month and below the USDA’s current estimate of 188.8.
  • The recent absence of corn flash sales has added pressure to the market, as traders grow increasingly concerned about demand ahead of a potential record crop.

  • Soybeans are trading steady to higher at midday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and the announcement of two flash sales. Both soybeans and soybean meal are posting gains, while soybean oil continues to trade lower.
  • The USDA has confirmed export sales of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year, totaling 123,000 tons and 204,650 tons.
  • President Trump has requested an expedited review of the tariffs by the Court of Appeals, but a final decision could take several months. This uncertainty may prompt China to delay progress on a trade agreement as they await the court’s ruling.
  • StoneX has lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.2 bushels per acre, down from 53.6 last month.
  • The percentage of U.S. soybean area under drought conditions rose by 5% this week to 16%, compared to 19% at the same time last year.

  • Wheat is trading higher at midday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and receiving additional support from the strength in the corn market.
  • U.S. wheat prices have struggled to rally this week, while European prices hit year-and-a-half lows amid increasing export competition.
  • Winter wheat area under drought conditions increased by 3% to 34%, still well below last year’s 52% at this time. The drought area for HRS wheat remained unchanged.
  • Ukraine’s Economic Ministry reports that 22 million tons of wheat have been harvested so far, slightly ahead of last year’s 21.8 million tons at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-4 Midday: Weakness in Grains Continue at Midday

  • Corn prices are softer at midday, following the rest of the grain complex lower. December futures are trading 1-3/4 lower to $4.30-00.
  • Allendale’s farmer survey showed corn yield is seen at 187.52 bpa with production at 16.631 billion bushels which if realized would be a record high output.
  • Argus Media has increased their corn production estimate for Ukraine by 4.4 mmt from the groups previous estimate to 31.3 mmt.

  • Soybeans continue to trade lower at midday, pressured by lower energy prices and lack of optimism of China demand for US soybeans. November beans are trading 5-1/4 lower to $10.26-1/4.
  • According to Rabobank, Brazil’s soy area is expected to expand by just 1.5% during the 2025/26 growing season. This compares the historical average soy expansion of 3.5%.
  • The agricultural brokerage firm, Allendale, released their soybean crop estimates for this year’s crop based on a farmer survey. Soybean yield is seen at 53.58 bpa while production is expected to reach 4.292 billion bushels.

  • All three wheat classes are weaker at midday, pressured by concerns that demand could start backing off as export competition increases. December Chicago what is trading 5-3/4 lower to $5.16-1/4.
  • LSEG has raised their Australian wheat production estimate to 32.3 mmt, up 7.3% from the groups previous estimate.
  • Rain fall is expected across the Southern Plains over the 7-10 days mostly driven by hurricane Lorena. This may cause some delays in harvest for the region.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-3 Midday: Grains Under Pressure at Midday

  • Corn markets are trading lower at midday amid potential demand concerns, as there have been no morning flash sales reported over the past several trading sessions.
  • Crop conditions declined by 2% this week, with 69% now rated good to excellent—still above last year’s 65% at this time and marking the highest rating for this point in the season since 2016.
  • Frost is forecasted to impact parts of Michigan and Wisconsin this week, while additional precipitation is expected across portions of the Southern Plains.
  • Brazil’s first crop corn planting has reached 6.7%, slightly behind last year’s 7.7% at this time. Meanwhile, drought conditions in the EU are expected to reduce corn production by at least 5%.

  • Soybeans remain softer at midday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing trade concerns. Soybeans and soybean oil trade lower, while soybean meal posts slight gains.
  • USDA confirms the sale of 185,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines in the 25/26 year.
  • An appeals court has ruled that President Trump’s tariffs exceeded his presidential authority, sending the case to the Supreme Court for review in October. As a result, countries still negotiating trade deals—including China—are likely to delay progress as they wait to see whether the Court will strike down the tariffs.
  • Soybean conditions fell 4% last week—more than expected—with 65% now rated good to excellent. This puts the crop on par with last year’s rating at the same time.
  • Dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt led to declining soybean crop ratings in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, and Michigan. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Dakota were the only states to report improvements in soybean conditions.

  • Wheat trades mixed at midday, pressured by rising global production forecasts and increasing export supplies.
  • Upside potential in the wheat market remains limited, as Russian exports continue to improve alongside rising production forecasts for both Australia and the EU.
  • U.S. HRS harvest is now at 72% complete, compared to 67% at this time last year and conditions remain unchanged at 49% good to excellent, well below last year’s 69% at this time.
  • Kazakhstan has experienced a very strong season and expects to have 8-9 million tons of excess wheat to export.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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9-2 Midday: Grains Remain Weaker at Midday

  • Corn continues to trend lower at midday after some private groups estimate higher ending stocks for both 2024/25 and 2025/26. December futures are down 1-1/2 to $4.18-3/4.
  • A private crop tour in McLean County, Illinois reported yield findings of 233.9 BPA, which is up from 227.12 last BPA last year.
  • A higher dollar at midday is adding weakness to not only the corn market but the rest of the grain complex as well.

  • Soybeans continue to lead the grain complex lower on lack of optimism regarding a trade deal getting done with China. November soybeans are 15-00 lower to $10.39-1/2.
  • There are rumors circulating that China may stop buying US products through the rest of 2025 as the trade spat is ongoing.
  • July crush will be released this afternoon. Analysts are expecting a record-breaking month at 207.2 mb compared to 197.1 mb crushed in June. Soybean oil stocks are expected at 1.90 billion pounds, which if realized, would be slightly higher than June’s 1.893 billion pounds.

  • All three wheat classes are drifting lower at midday, pressured by global production boosts. December Chicago wheat is trading 9-00 lower to $5.25-1/4.
  • Egypt’s wheat imports have fallen to 4.5 mmt this year, down 21% from the year prior, according to the finance minister.
  • Australia’s wheat output is expected to reach 33.8 mmt, which if realized, would be the fourth-largest wheat crop on record.
  • SoveEcon has raised their Russian wheat export estimate to 43.7 mmt, up from 43.3 mmt in the groups previous estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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8-29 Midday: Grains Mixed at Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

 

  • Corn markets are trading higher at midday, supported by strong export demand and continued favorable weather conditions aiding the crop’s development as the season progresses.
  • U.S. corn exports to the EU for the 2024/25 season have reached a 35-year high, driven by ongoing drought stress impacting the EU crop.
  • U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions remains unchanged at 5%, down from 8% at the same time last year.
  • LSEG has raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop to 137.4 million metric tons, up 4% from the previous forecast, citing increased planted acreage. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest is now just over 97% complete.

  • Soybeans are trading lower at midday, pressured by continued weakness in the soybean oil market and light trading volume ahead of the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
  • Additional pressure on the market comes as China continues to source soybeans from countries other than the U.S., with increased purchases from Argentina and Uruguay.
  • Stats Canada soybean production this season is expected to drop 7.3% compared to last year.
  • U.S. soybeans under drought conditions rose by 2% to 11%, just below last year’s 12%. Persistent dryness in the eastern Corn Belt is drawing trader attention, with forecasts expecting the trend to continue into next week.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday but still seeing some support by strong export commitments for the 2025/26 season, which are currently 23% ahead of this time last year.
  • Stats Canada released wheat production estimates at 35.548 million metric tons, just below the pre-report expectation of 35.6 million. Spring wheat production was pegged at 25.992 million tons, up from 25.351 million last year.
  • Winter wheat acreage under drought conditions held steady at 31% last week, though significant rains across the Southern Plains this week are expected to ease those numbers. Meanwhile, HRS wheat under drought declined by 1 point to 13%.
  • Russian export prices have fallen to a one-month low due to harvest pressure, while EU prices are approaching contract lows.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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