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5-19 End of Day: Grains Rebound to Start the Week: Corn Recovers, Soybeans Firm, Spring Wheat Surges on Frost Risk

ByLisa Heder

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures rebounded off early session lows Monday as bargain buying and continued strong export demand helped erase most of Friday’s losses.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Monday in a quiet session, with new crop contracts leading gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers stepped into the corn market, lifting prices off early session lows as value buying and continued strong demand story brought support to the corn market, erasing most of Friday’s losses.

  • USDA’s weekly export inspections showed 1.719 MMT (67.7 mb) of corn shipped for the week ending May 12 — near the top of analyst expectations. Total shipments are now 29% ahead of last year and tracking roughly 150 mb above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2024–25 export forecast.

  • Managed money has moved into a short position in the corn market as favorable weather, and prospects on a large Brazil corn crop have pressured the market. In last week’s commitment of traders’ report, funds were net sellers of nearly 100,000 corn contracts and held a net short position of 84,976 corn contracts. With additional selling pressure into the end of the week, the estimate reflects that the funds are approximately net short 100,000 contracts going into today’s session.

  • Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 80% complete. Illinois — a key producer — lagged 6% behind the five-year average last week. Continued delays there could spark yield concerns and weigh on national production expectations.

Corn Futures Slide Back Toward 2024 Lows as Support Levels Erode
Corn futures bounced in April off the key $4.50 level, boosted by a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average. But May brought selling pressure, as strong planting progress and demand worries dragged prices back below $4.70. The $4.45–$4.50 zone has again held firm, but with momentum weakening, traders are watching to see if this critical support can withstand further pressure.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 98,869 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 84,976 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B 1016.75 stop price has been adjusted higher to 1018.50.

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day in relatively quiet trade that saw new crop contracts posting the larger gains. Futures once again found support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages which have converged and are providing support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil led soybeans higher.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 145,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during marketing year 2024/2025. Export sales have been slow overall for soybeans, but India and other countries are reportedly looking to discuss trade deals with the U.S.which could boost demand.

  • Today’s export inspections were below analyst expectations for soybeans with inspections totaling 8.0 million bushels for the week ending May 15. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.622 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total exports for 24/25 up 8% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of May 13 by 16,537 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,407 contracts. They were buyers of bean oil by 10,694 contracts and buyers of meal by 712 contracts.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,537 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net long 38,407 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • U.S. wheat futures closed higher across all classes Monday, led by double-digit gains in Minneapolis spring wheat. Reports of frost in the Northern Plains over the weekend, with more cold in the forecast, helped support spring wheat. A weaker U.S. Dollar—pressured by Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating—also boosted commodity prices.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 761 mb, which is up 16% from last year. Inspections are running slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimates – they are projecting 24/25 exports at 800 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • According to their customs data, China’s wheat imports have fallen 61.2% year over year, to 760,000 mt. Corn and soybean imports are also down sharply. However, wheat growing regions in central China are under stress due to dry conditions. This could mean they will need to increase their wheat imports down the road, which would be bullish.  

  • LSEG ag research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 794.99 mmt, which would be down 0.3% from last season if realized. Despite the expectation for declines to the wheat crop in the US, Black Sea region, Australia, and Kazakhstan, this may be largely offset by gains in India, Canada, and Europe. Even China is expected by LSEG to have a bigger crop, in spite of current weather issues.

  • Over the weekend, severe flooding in Argentina caused evacuations in the northern part of the Buenos Aires province. Rainfall totals were reported between 6-10 inches or more in a very short period of time. This flooding may cause delays to soybean harvest, as well as planting of their wheat crop.

  • The German national statistics agency has projected that their nation’s winter wheat planted area is up 12.2% from a year ago, to 2.78 million hectares. This is down 0.1% from their December estimate. Germany is the second biggest wheat producer in the EU, with France being number one.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,161 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 126,895 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,393 contracts between May 6 – May 13, bringing their total position to a net short 27,519 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-16 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Slip, Soybeans Mixed to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling pressure returned to the corn market on Friday, capping off a fifth consecutive negative week for July futures.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week mixed, with front-month contracts slightly lower while new crop contracts posted gains in bear spreading action.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker Paris milling wheat futures.

  • To see the updated 7-day National Blend of Models precipitation forecast in inches as well as the 5–10-day GEFS temperature anomalies for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the corn market on Friday, capping off a negative week. December corn posted a new low in the current price move, while July corn reversed lower after once again failing to hold above the 450 level. The weak technical close leaves the door open for additional selling pressure to start next week. For the week, July corn ended 6 ¼ cents lower, marking the fifth consecutive weekly loss.

  • Renewed discussions of a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighed on both corn and wheat futures. Speculation around a possible ceasefire raised concerns about increased grain exports and competition from the Black Sea region.

  • Some beneficial rainfall fell over the northern parts of the Corn Belt on Thursday. Amounts and coverage in some areas was disappointing, but rainfall is forecasted again into the weekend. That potential rainfall and cooler temperatures pressured the corn market.

  • Rumors of a reduced renewable fuel blending mandate added longer-term demand concerns for corn-based ethanol. While the market had been expecting 2026 blending levels near 5.275 billion gallons, reports now suggest a possible reduction to 4.650 billion gallons. Although still above last year’s levels, the number falls short of trade expectations and has pressured futures.

  • June corn options expired on Friday, introducing additional volatility. Expiration tends to steer prices toward areas of heavy open interest and can trigger either buying or selling depending on price action relative to strike levels.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B 1016.75 stop price has been adjusted higher to 1018.50.

      • Thinking sub-1000 vs November to potentially begin legging out of recently recommended 1040 January put options. More details to come once an official target is posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the week with the front months slightly lower and new crop contracts ending higher in bear spreading action. July soybeans found support after yesterday’s sharp sell-off at the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which have converged at $10.47. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.

  • Soybean oil has been the downside leader in the soy complex over the past two sessions. Pressure stemmed from comments by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, who confirmed that the agency will begin a new rulemaking process over the coming months to revise renewable volume obligations (RVOs). The delay has sparked concern that final biofuel mandates could come in below the expected 4.6 billion gallons, though that remains speculative.

  • NOPA soybean crush for the month of April was shown at 190.226 million bushels, which was down 2.2% from March at 194.51 mb but was above trade estimates. Crush was well above last year at this time of 169.43 mb in April.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents at $10.50 while November soybeans gained 5 cents to $10.35-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.20 to $291.90 and July soybean oil actually gained 0.36 cents to finish the week at 48.93 cents.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes today, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker Paris milling wheat (Matif) futures. Sentiment was also influenced by reports of potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Ukrainian President Zelensky told President Trump he was prepared to take swift steps toward peace, as negotiations continue in Turkey. A resolution could eventually boost wheat production and exports from the Black Sea region, applying additional pressure to global prices.

  • Yesterday the wheat crop tour in Kansas concluded, with the Wheat Quality Council finding a final average yield of 53 bpa, which compares to the USDA’s estimate of 50 bpa, and is the highest since 2021. However, they also estimated total production at 338.5 mb versus the USDA at 345 mb. This would seem to suggest that they are expecting a lower amount of harvested acreage.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 13, an estimated 23% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is up 1% from the previous week and down 2% from the same time last year. Spring wheat area in drought also increased by 1% from a week ago to 38%. This is far above last year’s 14% drought reading. But with rains in the northern Plains, spring wheat drought conditions may ease next in next week’s estimate.

  • FranceAgriMer has estimated 73% of the French soft wheat crop is in good or very good condition as of May 12. This is down slightly from a week ago, but according to the USDA, areas of northern Europe are too dry – more rain will be needed for development of winter crops.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target was lowered to 675.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast

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5-15 End of Day: Soybeans Slammed Lower on RFS Headline; Corn Ends Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, driven by a limit-down move in soybean oil. The pressure came from bearish news tied to the Renewable Fuel Standard and renewable volume obligations.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex.

  • To see the updated drought monitor and the updated monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could be added within the next few trading days. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.

  • The USDA released its weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new sales totaled 1.677 million metric tons (66 million bushels) for old crop and 509,000 metric tons (20 million bushels) for new crop. Old crop sales exceeded analysts’ expectations, with South Korea emerging as the largest buyer last week.

  • An announcement from the EPA on Thursday added pressure to the grain markets. Instead of a near-term update on blending volumes, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that the agency will complete a new rulemaking process “over the next few months.” The delay disappointed traders hoping for clarity on Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and triggered a limit-down move in soybean oil. The spillover weighed on new crop corn futures, reflecting concerns about long-term ethanol demand.

  • Planting conditions across the U.S. remain favorable, with most areas seeing an open window for fieldwork. Forecasts show increasing chances for beneficial precipitation across key growing regions next week, supporting early crop development and helping cap market rallies.

  • Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn on the export market. Current weather and drought conditions there could become a quiet but supportive factor for U.S. corn. Mexico’s primary planting window runs from April through August, accounting for about 70% of its total production. Drought in key growing areas could reduce yields, potentially boosting U.S. corn exports next winter.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None. Thinking sub-1000 vs November to potentially begin legging out of recently recommended 1040 January put options. More details to come once an official target is posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower due to a limit down move in soybean oil, and July soybeans gave up all of their gains from earlier this week. While soybean export sales were within expectations, the bearish news concerning soybean oil was an announcement last night regarding Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations.

  • On Wednesday evening, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin confirmed that the agency will initiate a new rulemaking process over the coming months to set updated volume obligations. Traders are concerned the delay could signal lower-than-expected biofuel mandates, potentially below the anticipated 4.6 billion gallons, though this remains speculative.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales with an increase of 10.4 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Top destinations were to Egypt, Indonesia, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 15.8 mb were below the 33.4 mb needed each week to mee the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Projections for the U.S. soybean crush in April average 183.8 million bushels. This compares to 194.6 million bushels in March and 169.5 million bushels in April of last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex. Soybean oil closed down its three-cent limit, and soybean futures lost 25 to 27 cents on the day. Support for U.S. wheat may be coming from the upward trend in Paris milling wheat futures, though domestic strength appears largely driven by continued technical buying and short covering, as fresh fundamental news remains limited.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.2 million bushels (mb) in wheat export sales for 2024/25 and 27.4 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 13.6 mb, falling short of the 15.3 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s 2024/25 export goal of 820 mb. However, total sales commitments for 2024/25 now stand at 798 mb, up 14% from a year ago.

  • On day two of the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, scouts estimated an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.8 bpa above day one and well above last year’s 42.4 bpa. While there is some concern about wheat curl mite and related disease, impacts appear limited at this point in the season.

  • Brazil’s CONAB released updated crop estimates, trimming its wheat production forecast slightly by 0.22 million metric tons (mmt) to 8.25 mmt. For comparison, the USDA currently projects Brazilian wheat output at 8.0 mmt.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina is estimating their 25/26 wheat crop at 21 mmt. If realized, this would be an increase from the 20.1 mmt harvested in 24/25. Wheat planting is just getting started there, but the RGE is anticipating a planted area of 7.2 million hectares which would be the largest in 15 years.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target was lowered to 675.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-14 End of Day: Wheat Recovery Continues, Corn and Soybeans Close Mostly Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed on Wednesday with old crop contracts slightly higher and new crop contracts fractionally lower.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday on bull-spreading activity, with nearby contracts gaining on new crop months.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues.

  • To see the updated 7-day QPF rainfall forecast for the U.S., the 5-10 day temperature anomaly map and the subsoil moisture map for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could be added within the next few trading days. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw reduced downward momentum on Wednesday as May contracts expired. Light buying interest emerged in the old crop market, supported by solid demand. May corn futures finished trading on Wednesday, settling at $4.38½.

  • The USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new corn sales for the 2024-25 marketing year are expected to range between 1.2 and 2.1 million metric tons (MMT). Last week’s sales totaled 1.6805 MMT, reflecting continued strength in old crop demand.

  • In weekly ethanol production, total production slipped to 292 million barrels/day, down 8 mbpd from last week and down 1% from last year. This total was below expectations and the lowest production in the past 53 weeks. Total corn used last week was estimated at 99 mb, which was slightly below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • Planting conditions remain favorable, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Heading into the weekend, forecasts show improved chances of beneficial precipitation across key growing regions. While supportive for early crop development, this may limit near-term rallies in the corn market.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in bull spreading action with the front months gaining on the new crop contracts. Futures continued to break out of their recent trading range as traders focus on smaller acres and a potentially very small ending stocks number. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • U.S. soybean exports could decline by up to 20% without a trade agreement with China, according to AgResource. Although tariffs have been significantly reduced, they remain higher than pre-trade war levels. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Lula has stated he is not concerned about potential U.S. retaliation over Brazil’s strengthening ties with China.

  • In Brazil, one of the largest grain producers, SLC Agrícola SA, is expected to increase its planted acreage in 25/26 by nearly 14% starting in July. The company has expanded by acquiring smaller farms and grows corn, soybeans, and cotton.

  • China is expected to reduce its soybean imports in 25/26 in order to cut use of soybean meal in the livestock sector. Soybean imports are expected to fall to 95.8 million tons, which would be down 2.8% from the forecast amount this year. This will impact both U.S. and South American export sales.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues. Winter wheat contracts remain near the bottom of the charts, and oversold conditions may be encouraging short covering. In contrast, Minneapolis wheat closed modestly lower, weighed down by recent rainfall across the Northern Plains and a rapid planting pace.

  • The first day of the Kansas wheat crop tour came with an average yield estimate of 50.5 bpa. This compares with last year’s estimate of 49.9 bpa, and a five-year average of 45.1 bpa. For reference, the USDA is estimating Kansas’ wheat yield at 50 bpa versus 43 bpa last year.

  • On a bearish note, the Russian ag ministry has said that frost damage has impacted about 100,000 hectares this month. This is only about 10% versus the amount impacted at this time last year. Additionally, the Black Sea region is expecting scattered rains that should benefit crop conditions.

  • In Argentina, conditions have been mostly favorable for winter wheat planting so far. Later this week and into the weekend, northern and eastern regions have rain in the forecast. More precipitation is possible next week too, and this would promote establishment of the early planted wheat crop.

  • According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports have reached 36.7 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 17% decline year over year. Wheat exports in particular are down 13.3% year over year at 14.4 mmt. Furthermore, grain exports so far this month, at 1.5 mmt, are down nearly 50% from the same time period a year ago.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

5-13 End of Day: Grains Mixed as Corn Slides, Wheat Recovers, and Soybeans Continue Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended losses on Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather conditions and a rapid planting pace that spurred additional selling.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day modestly higher after a volatile trading session, with follow-through support from yesterday’s friendly WASDE report helping lift prices.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures rebounded from early losses to finish higher on Tuesday, while Minneapolis wheat futures closed in the red.

  • To see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the past 30-day precipitation for the U.S. from the scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stayed in control of the corn market on Tuesday as the continued strong planting pace and crop friendly forecast triggered additional selling pressure in the corn market. July futures hit new lows for the move, breaking below December’s support level of $4.37.

  • May corn futures expire on Wednesday, May 14, and could continue to influence the old crop side of the corn market with short-term price movement. May futures traded below the March corn settle price and hold a 6 ½ discount to the July futures, which could keep a negative tilt on the old crop corn market as the corn market feels comfortable with front end supplies.

  • USDA reported 62% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of May 11, up 22 points from last week. That pace is 15% ahead of last year and 6% above the 5-year average. However, Illinois and Indiana are lagging slightly due to wet conditions in southern areas.

  • Conditions remain favorable for planting, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Looking ahead, next week’s forecast includes beneficial precipitation across key growing regions, offering support for early crop development.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 445-450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after volatile trade that saw the July contract down by nearly 18 cents at one point following yesterday’s bearish Crop Progress report. It seemed that the bullish momentum from yesterday’s WASDE, which anticipated a very small ending stocks number, brought futures higher in the end. Soybean meal was lower, while bean oil followed crude oil higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean plantings at 48% complete, which was higher than the trade guess of 47% and compared to 30% completion a week ago and the 5-year average of 37%. 17% of the crop is emerged, which compared to 7% a week ago and the average of 11%.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report was bullish for soybeans showing lower than expected ending stocks. For 24/25, bean ending stocks are forecast at 350 mb, which was down from 375 mb last month, and 25/26 ending stocks are forecast at just 295 MB, which was below the average trade guess. World ending stocks were also lowered by 2.6 mmt.

  • Yesterday, markets jumped early following news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a 90-day tariff truce, rolling back U.S. soybean tariffs to 30% from 145%, with China cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The announcement sparked rallies in soybeans, hogs, and equities, but some of these gains were given back today.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures recovered from early weakness to close higher Tuesday, despite lingering pressure from Monday’s bearish WASDE report and improved crop ratings. Support may have come from a notable drop in the U.S. Dollar Index and technical correction from oversold levels. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat futures closed lower, weighed down by favorable weather and rapid planting progress in the Northern Plains.

  • As of May 11, the USDA has rated the winter wheat crop at 54% good to excellent, up 3% from last week, and above the 50% rating at this time a year ago. An estimated 53% of the crop is headed, 2% below last year, but well above the five-year average of 45%. Furthermore, spring wheat is said to be 66% planted, far beyond 59% last year and 49% average. Emergence is also ahead of schedule at 27%, compared to 23% a year ago and 19% on average.

  • Concerns are rising over an outbreak of wheat curl mite, a pest that transmits wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV). The mite population is reportedly expanding due to persistent drought in parts of the U.S. Plains, posing risks to both winter and spring wheat crops.

  • According to the French ag ministry, their nation planted an estimated 4.60 million hectares of soft wheat. This is down from the April estimate of 4.63 million hectares, but if realized it would still be up 9.1% year over year. The declining estimate comes from what is planted in the spring, as the winter crop estimate was unchanged from April at 4.57 million hectares (making up the vast majority of their wheat production).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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5-12 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Start the Week: Soybeans Soar on Trade Optimism, Corn Steady, Wheat Pressured by Bearish Data

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market finished mixed on Monday despite a superficially supportive USDA WASDE report and easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended sharply higher on the day, buoyed by a wave of bullish headlines including a U.S.-China tariff agreement, a supportive WASDE report, and strength in both soybean oil and meal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: A slightly bearish WASDE report and forecasted rains for spring wheat areas pressured wheat futures to start the week.

  • To see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the 6-10-day precipitation and temperature outlooks for the U.S. from the CPC scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished mixed on the session despite a “on-the-surface” supportive USDA WASDE report and easing U.S.-China trade tensions. Fund selling, rapid U.S. planting progress, and larger global supplies weighed on market sentiment.

  • In the May WASDE, USDA raised old crop corn export demand by 50 million bushels, lowering 2024/25 ending stocks to 1.415 billion bushels—below market expectations. However, a 4 MMT increase in Brazil’s crop estimate to 131 MMT added bearish pressure, reinforcing concerns about global competition.

  • USDA also released its first projections for the 2025/26 marketing year. Using March planting intentions (95.7 million acres) and a trendline yield of 181 bu/acre, USDA forecast ending stocks at 1.800 billion bushels—200 mb below pre-report expectations. A notable 150 mb increase in feed demand was included in the new crop outlook. This tighter balance sheet raises the stakes for favorable U.S. weather during the growing season.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.224 MMT for the week ending May 8, in line with expectations. Year-to-date export inspections are now 29% higher than the same period last year.

  • May corn futures expire on Wednesday, May 14, and could continue to influence the old crop side of the corn market with short-term price movement. Money Managers net sold 57,436 contracts between April 29 – May 6, bringing their total position to a net long 13,893 contracts.

Corn Back Near Calendar Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher following multiple bullish headlines today. This morning, it was announced that President Trump and China’s President Xi made an agreement to lower tariffs over the next 90 days. This was followed by a friendly WASDE report and higher crude oil that supported soybean oil, and bean meal was higher as well.

  • Markets jumped early following news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a 90-day tariff truce, rolling back U.S. soybean tariffs to 30% from 145%, with China cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The announcement sparked rallies in soybeans, hogs, and equities.

  • The USDA’s WASDE report added fuel to the rally, as it lowered 2024/25 soybean ending stocks to 350 million bushels from 375 million last month, and projected 2025/26 carryout at just 295 million bushels—well below trade expectations of 362 million. South American production estimates were unchanged, with Argentina at 50.0 MMT and Brazil at 169.0 MMT.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections total 15.7 mb for the week ending May 8, and total inspections are now at 1.613 bb, up 11% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 16,332 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 21,870 contracts. They sold 6,649 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 56,738 contracts and sold 5,230 contracts of meal leaving them short 103,457 contracts.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex closed lower across all three classes, with Minneapolis futures leading the decline amid forecasts for rainfall in the U.S. Northern Plains later this week.

  • Pressure also came from a bearish tone in the USDA’s WASDE report, which offset optimism from recent U.S.-China trade talks. The wheat market instead focused on a surging U.S. Dollar Index, which reached a one-month high.

  • USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.921 billion bushels, down from 1.971 bb in 2024/25 but above the average trade estimate of 1.896 bb. Winter wheat was estimated at 1.349 bb, unchanged from the prior year.

  • 2024/25 U.S. wheat ending stocks came in at 841 million bushels, down 5 mb from April, while 2025/26 ending stocks jumped to 923 mb—well above expectations and the high end of pre-report guesses.

  • Global 2024/25 wheat carryout was raised to 265.2 million metric tons (mmt) from 260.7 mmt in April. The initial 2025/26 world ending stocks estimate was 265.7 mmt, also above expectations.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 14.9 mb, bringing cumulative 2024/25 inspections to 745 mb—15% above last year but still slightly behind the pace needed to meet USDA’s unchanged export forecast of 820 mb.

  • China has reportedly purchased between 400,000 to 500,000 mt of milling-quality wheat, sourced from Canada and Australia in the past few weeks. Despite being the world’s top wheat producer, China still needs to import wheat to meet demand. And with current heat and dryness in their wheat belt, their imports could increase. For reference, in 2024 China purchased $3.5 billion worth of wheat, totaling 11 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 701 target was lowered to 699.25.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 696 target was lowered to 688. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • The 645 target was cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-9 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Close the Week Ahead of Key Trade Talks

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished the week with gains, supported by firmer spreads and a technical bounce from oversold levels.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher, buoyed by optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks this weekend.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slipped on Friday, underperforming as they failed to follow strength in corn and soybeans.

  • Too see the updated 7-day WPC rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the 8–14-day precipitation outlook for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week higher, building on positive momentum and firmer spread action as the market corrected from oversold conditions ahead of Monday’s WASDE release.

  • Demand was supportive again Friday, with another 288,000 metric tons sold to Mexico — bringing the two-day total to over 600,000 mt, showing lower prices have sparked renewed interest in U.S. corn.

  • Warmer weather is forecast across the U.S. into late May, which should aid planting progress and support early crop development.

  • The USDA is expected to raise old crop export estimates in Monday’s report, likely trimming 2024/25 ending stocks. However, new crop ending stocks are projected to climb significantly, potentially exceeding 2 billion bushels due to a much higher U.S. average figure. These estimates would suggest that a sustained rally would require a major weather-related disruption.

  • In Argentina, the corn harvest is 35% complete, advancing just 4% on the week, according to BAGE.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for a second day but remained rangebound between $10.35 and $10.65. Traders are eyeing Friday’s Trump-Xi meeting, where a potential trade deal could support the market. Soybean meal ended lower, while soybean oil gained alongside crude.

  • In South America, weather is expected to remain friendly for the continuation of harvest, which is expected to be a record, and in the U.S., warmer weather should boost planting pace and emergence into the rest of the month.

  • On Monday, the WASDE report will be released, and trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents while November was completely unchanged at $10.30-1/2. July soybean meal lost $2.80 to finish at $294.10, and July soybean oil lost 0.86 cents to 48.57 cents.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended lower Friday, unable to follow corn and soybeans higher. Volatility may increase next week with the USDA’s WASDE report and U.S.-China trade talks in focus. Lack of progress could pressure markets, while signs of a deal may boost grain prices.

  • Monday’s WASDE (11 AM CT) is expected to show U.S. 2024/25 wheat ending stocks near 845 mb, down slightly from April, and initial 2025/26 stocks projected at 848 mb. Global carryout is expected to remain steady around 260.7 mmt for 2024/25, with 2025/26 pegged at 259.8 mmt.

  • U.S. 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 1.896 bb, down from 1.971 bb last season. Winter wheat is seen at 1.333 bb. Total wheat acreage remains historically low at 45.4 million acres, per March USDA data.

  • Geopolitical headlines added intrigue, with reports the U.S. and EU may propose a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

  • Wheat seedings in western Australia are expected to be smaller than initially thought, due to unfavorable conditions. It has been persistently dry – according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, farmers will plant 4.07 million hectares of wheat for the 25/26 season, which compares to the April estimate of 4.19 million hectares.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, an estimated 74% of the French soft wheat crop is rated in good or very good condition as of May 5. This was steady with the week prior. Additionally, temperatures are expected to increase this weekend with rains in the forecast for western and southwestern regions.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 44 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-8 End of Day: Grains Mixed Following Weekly Export Sales Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn markets failed to gain upward momentum throughout today’s session and ended with losses, despite a supportive export sales report.

  • Soybeans: Unlike corn and wheat, the soybean market closed higher, supported by a strong performance in soybean oil and a reported sale of U.S. soybeans by the USDA.

  • Wheat: The wheat markets continued their downward trend into the afternoon, ultimately closing lower driven by improved weather conditions across key growing regions.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the day with marginal losses, despite supportive export demand news and some late-session short covering. July corn has now closed lower in five of the past six sessions. For the week, the July contract is down 21 ½ cents heading into Friday’s trade.

  • Managed funds continue to liquidate their long position, pressuring the corn market. The last commitment of traders was estimated funds were long 71,000 contracts of corn. As planting weather has been favorable, and possible bearish projections for the 2025-26 marketing year, funds have continued to liquidate those long positions, pressuring the corn market, especially the July futures.

  • USDA announced weekly export sales for corn on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 1, USDA reported new sales of 1.663 MMT (65.5 mb) for the week. This was up 67% over last week and 47% above the 4-week average. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn again last week. Total export sales are trending ahead of the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year and up 27% over last year.

  • USDA announced two flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. Mexico purchased 205,000 MT (8.1 mb) of corn split between the current and next marketing year. Of that total, 40,000 MT was for 2024-25 and 165,000 MT was for 2025-26. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 115,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year.

  • On Monday, USDA will release the next WASDE report. The market will be watching closely for any demand adjustment that could reduce old crop carryout below 1.400 bb. The May report will also give the first projections for the 2025-26 crop year. The combination of extra corn acres and trendline yield could place new crop carryout over the 2.000 bb mark. That total would be a bearish starting point and has pressured the market.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher while corn and wheat were lower thanks to a strong showing in soybean oil. Crude oil rallied by over 3% which supported soybean oil and therefore soybeans despite slightly lower soybean meal. Export sales were in the middle of the road, but there was a flash sale reported as well.

  • Today’s export sales were a bit disappointing for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. This was down 12% from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 9.5 mb were below the 11.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • A bright spot for soybean exports today was the announcement of a sale of 225,000 tons of soybeans that were sold to Pakistan for 25/26. This was the largest daily sale to Pakistan since June 2022 and confirms their earlier commitment to buy more cotton and soybeans from the U.S.

  • The demand in the soybean oil market has been providing support to soybean prices.  Weekly soybean oil export sales were strong at 14.6 MT, near the top end of expectations, and new crop sales of 1.1 MT topped expectations. Current total sales for soybean oil in the 2024-25 marketing year total 990.6 MT, up nearly 800% over last year.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market continued its downward trend, closing lower across all three futures classes. Kansas City wheat futures set new contract lows before a slight rebound. The U.S. Dollar Index surged today and is on track to close above its 21-day moving average for the first time since April 1. This put additional pressure on the U.S. wheat complex, compounded by a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 2.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 18.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 18.1 mb, which was under the 23.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 820 mb for 24/25. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 700 mb, which is up 12% from last year.

  • Today’s big news was that the U.S. and the UK have reached a trade deal. Grain markets largely shrugged this off, however, as it appears to have a more prominent impact on U.S. beef and ethanol exports to the UK. Nevertheless, this could be the first step towards trade deals with other countries, which in theory should be bullish for ag markets.

  • According to Statistics Canada, their nation’s all wheat stocks were estimated at 15.421 mmt as of March 31. This exceeded expectations of 14.9 mmt but was below the 15.601 mmt figure from a year ago. Furthermore, LSEG is estimating 25/26 Canadian wheat production at 36.5 mmt, which would be 4.5% above last season’s harvest.  

  • The USDA has estimated that approximately 22% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions as of May 6; this is down 1% from the week prior. Spring wheat areas in drought were held steady at 37%. At the same time a year ago an estimated 28% of winter wheat was in drought, while spring wheat was at just 15%.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 45 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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5-7 End of Day: Grains Slide Despite News of U.S./China Upcoming Meeting

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended lower despite strong overnight gains after news of U.S.-China trade talks set for this weekend.

  • Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed in bear spreading action, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures ended lower, with Chicago posting small losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw steeper declines.

  • To see the updated soil moisture percentile map and the 14-day GFS precipitation anomaly outlook for the U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite strong overnight prices in the corn market, the sellers held their grip on the old crop futures, pushing July to its lowest close since December. The selling pressure trickled into new crop prices, finishing the December contract with marginal losses on the session. July corn has traded lower for 4 of the past 5 sessions and nearly 50 cents off the most recent high.

  • Overnight strength came from news of U.S.-China trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland, sparking short covering. However, futures failed to break resistance and faded through the day session.

  • Ethanol production averaged 1.020 million bpd last week, down 1.9% from the prior week but still 5.9% above last year. Ethanol stocks remain heavy at 25.191 million barrels, while corn use for ethanol totaled 102.91 mb — on pace to meet USDA targets.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. The trend in export sales has been supportive of corn prices as accumulated sales are trending well ahead of the USDA totals to reach the marketing year export target. Last week, export sales totaled 1.014 MMT.

  • Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. If the current pattern holds, some areas will turn significantly dry and may be in need of precipitation to aid early development of the corn crop.

Corn Back Near Calander Year Lows
Corn futures broke higher in April after repeatedly holding support near 450, with a bullish April WASDE — highlighting stronger demand — fueling the move through the 50-day moving average. As May begins, traders are watching weather developments and demand signals to guide the next leg. February highs above 510 are the next upside target. However, early May weakness has taken out support at 470, setting up a potential retest of the critical 450 zone — the early 2025 low and a key technical floor.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed in bear spreading action, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher. Prices faded from overnight highs after news of planned U.S.-China trade talks. Soybean meal firmed, while soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • Despite progress on U.S.-China talks, trader skepticism over a quick resolution weighed on futures throughout the session. Without a deal before harvest, demand concerns could pressure prices further.

  • Over the next two weeks, the weather is forecast to be warmer and drier than normal in the corn and soy belts. While some areas have received rain over the past few weeks, many already have low soil moisture levels which could become a bigger problem given a drier summer.

  • In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans.

Soybean Futures Drift Near Upper End of Yearly Range
Soybean futures plunged below the critical 1000 level in early April on tariff news, triggering technical selling after a firm March floor gave way. But the drop was short-lived — strong buying quickly reversed the slide, lifting prices back above 1000 and reclaiming major moving averages. Most notably, the 200-day moving average — long a ceiling — was decisively cleared. With momentum shifting higher, the market is eyeing a retest of February’s highs near 1080, while the 200-day average now serves as a key layer of support on any pullbacks.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended lower, with Chicago posting small losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw steeper declines. Pressure on hard red wheat followed the Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s production forecast of 101.2 mb — marking a second consecutive year above 100 mb. Western Kansas also received beneficial rains, and a firmer U.S. Dollar plus weakness in Matif wheat added to the downside.

  • Early strength was tied to reports that U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland this weekend to discuss trade — a broad boost for the grain complex, though direct benefits may lean more toward soybeans and corn.

  • On a bullish note, the Henan province in China is expected to see a windy weather pattern, along with hot and dry conditions; this province produces about a third of China’s wheat. Drought continues to expand throughout China’s wheat belt, which could mean that they will need to import down the road. Also supportive is the fact that U.S. SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest. Furthermore, U.S. HRW wheat at the Gulf is said to be at a 25-cent discount to Russian wheat.

  • Global turmoil is likely to continue to inject volatility into commodity markets. News outlets have reported that India launched an attack on Pakistan overnight in response to an attack last month on tourists that resulted in 26 deaths. Pakistan also claims to have shot down several Indian jets. This has raised concerns about war brewing between the two nations.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, rallying to October highs just above 615. But the rally was short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into the 2024 range. Solid support near 530 has held through March and early May, reinforcing its importance. The next key hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could mark a turning point and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 46 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Ground Amid Historic Acreage Lows
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend in late January, igniting a wave of bullish momentum. The rally accelerated in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pulled futures below key support. Unlike winter wheat, spring wheat has managed to consolidate near multiple moving averages, which are currently holding as support. The next upside target is the February high near 660. With spring wheat acreage expected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather will likely be a key driver of price direction this season.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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5-6 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed as Spring Planting Progresses

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn: Corn futures ended the day mixed, with nearby contracts holding steady while deferred months faced pressure from favorable weather conditions that are accelerating planting progress across key growing regions.

  • Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive session, pressured by a better-than-expected crop progress report showing spring planting running well ahead of the five-year average.

  • Wheat: Wheat futures posted gains at the close, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and favorable weather conditions boosting crop development.

  • To see the updated 30-day percent of normal and accumulated rainfall map for the U.S. and the 7-day rainfall outlook U.S. scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes: None.

      • No upside targets at this time.

      • If July regains upward momentum, a Plan B downside sales stop could be added.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:
    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
    • NEW: Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • NEW: Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December touches 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • An additional downside target has been added to liquidate another quarter of the 420 December put options. This target may be reached before the 43 ¾ cents target.

      • A downside target was also set to roll down the current 510 & 550 call options, which would enhance upside protection on prior cash sales recommendations through the summer.  

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished with mixed trade as stability returned to old crop futures with a strong demand tone, while deferred contracts remained under pressure due to favorable weather supporting a solid planting pace for this year’s crop.

  • The USDA released the latest crop progress report on Monday afternoon. As of May 4, the USDA estimated that 40% of this year’s corn crop was planted, up 16% over last week. This was 1% below expectations, but 1% ahead of 5-year average.  Key corn producing state, Illinois, was the biggest laggard on the totals with 32% of the crop plants, down 12% from the 5-year average.

  • Weather models remain friendly for possible rapid planting pace. Temperatures across most of the corn belt are expected to be above normal and drier than normal precipitation. The prospects of strong planting pace limited new crop corn futures.

  • Strong demand tone will support old crop corn futures as export demand and ethanol demand are trending above USDA market year projections. The recent weakness in prices will likely limit cash marketing, and basis levels will likely firm to promote additional cash sales.

  • Weather conditions for the Brazil corn crop have been overall very friendly, and some analyst groups have raised their production forecasts for the key second crop corn. With harvest a few weeks away, the fresh supplies will be in competition with U.S. corn bushels on the export market.

Corn Sandwiched Between Support and Resistance
Corn futures staged a breakout in April after repeatedly defending key support near 450 throughout March. A bullish April WASDE report — driven by stronger-than-expected demand — lit the spark, propelling prices through the 50-day moving average and igniting renewed bullish momentum. As the market enters May, traders are focused on two key drivers: weather outlooks across the Corn Belt and ongoing demand signals. The February highs just above 510 now stand as the next upside target. However, early May weakness has cracked support near 470, leaving the door open for a retest of the familiar 450 level — the early 2025 low — as the next key floor.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 62 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

    • Since last summer, soybeans have largely traded within a range of 950 to 1060. If this rangebound price action continues, the first risk would be a move back toward the lower end at 950. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside protection. Adding 1040 put options will provide coverage against lower prices while keeping upside potential open and not having to commit any physical bushels.

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • NEW: Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1016.75 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes: None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day following the crop progress report that showed planting pace well above the 5-year average amid generally good weather that has been conducive to planting. Soybean meal was lower to end the day along with soybean oil despite a rally in crude oil.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that the soybean crop is 30% planted, which compares to 18% last week and the 5-year average of 23%. The pace was slightly below the average trade guess of 31%. 7% of the crop has emerged which compares to the average of 5%. Planting is ahead of the average pace in every state except for Illinois where it is 1 point behind the average.

  • In Brazil, the Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economics (IMEA) has projected that state’s soybean production at 50.89 mmt. If realized, this would be a 30% jump over 2024 production. This is said to be due to higher estimated acreage and yields. Over the past few years, Mato Grosso has produced nearly one-third of Brazil’s soybeans. 

  • Both old and new crop soybean futures have technical support around their respective 40 and 50 day moving averages. However, if they break this support, momentum would point to more downside and a potential re-test of the April lows.

Soybean Futures Hold Above Key Support
Soybean futures plunged in early April as news of fresh tariffs sent prices tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 level — a floor that had held firm throughout March. The break triggered a wave of technical selling, but the dip was short-lived. Aggressive buying interest quickly emerged, sparking a sharp rebound that not only reclaimed the 1000 level but also vaulted futures back above key moving averages. Notably, the 200-day moving average — a persistent ceiling for nearly two years — was decisively overtaken. With momentum building, the market is now setting its sights on a potential retest of the February highs near 1080, while the reclaimed 200-day average is poised to serve as a strong layer of support during any spring setbacks.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat put some green on the board today, with a higher close in all three classes. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and a technical bounce as U.S. wheat remains oversold and funds are record short.  

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report from the USDA indicated that winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week, to 51% good to excellent; 39% of the crops are headed compared to 41% last year and 33% average. Additionally, 44% of the spring wheat crop is planted, versus 45% a year ago and 34% average. An estimated 13% of spring wheat has emerged, which is ahead of the 11% pace last year and 9% on average.

  • East-central China is seeing heat and dryness that could affect their wheat production. Additionally, freezing temperatures could impact winter wheat in northeast Europe and the Baltics. However, these weather issues may be somewhat counterbalanced by better rains expected for parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

  • IKAR has increased their estimate of 2025 Russian wheat production from 82.5 mmt to 83.8 mmt. In addition, they also increased their Russian wheat export forecast from 40 mmt to 41.3 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 701 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 Chicago wheat puts at approximately 92 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 11 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the July 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 696 against July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Sales target has been lowered. 

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Futures Back Near Support
After months of sideways action, Chicago wheat futures broke higher in February, rallying to early October highs just above 615. However, that mid-month peak quickly turned into a reversal point, sending futures back into the late 2024 trading range. Support near 530 held firm through March, and should continue to act as support in the near-term. The next key test is the 200-day moving average — a decisive weekly close above it could signal a shift in momentum and potentially kickstart a broader upside trend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • NEW: Target 645 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • New:

      • Sales target has been lowered.

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Holding Support, Watching 200-Day Resistance
February was a volatile month for Kansas City wheat, with prices surging higher before tumbling back and ending the month little changed. March and April brought additional weakness, dragging prices near recent lows, but the ability to hold these lows is encouraging. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average will be the first resistance level to watch, with February highs near 640 serving as a more significant upside barrier. On the downside, support near the December lows around 540 should provide a strong floor if selling pressure continues.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes: None.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell all remaining July ‘25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 94 cents in premium minus fees and commission.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • New:

      • With just 48 days remaining until expiration and following gains from the recent decline in July KC futures off its April 10 high, it’s time to close out the final portion of the 620 KC put options.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes: None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat at a Crossroads
Spring wheat broke out of its long-standing sideways range in late January, triggering a surge of bullish momentum. The rally gained traction in mid-February with a close above the 200-day moving average, though late-month weakness briefly pushed futures back below key technical levels. Unlike the winter wheats, spring wheat has been able to hover near a confluence of moving averages which are acting as support as of now. The next upside target is the February highs near 660. With spring wheat acreage projected to be the lowest in 55 years, weather volatility is likely to play a major role in driving price action this season.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather