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7-9 End of Day: Grain Markets Struggle for Support Ahead of WASDE Report Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher Wednesday, pausing after posting new contract lows overnight.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for a third straight session Wednesday, with August futures down 46 ½ cents so far this week. Favorable weather and strong crop ratings continue to pressure the market, encouraging fund selling.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed Wednesday—Chicago posted minor losses, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw modest gains.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended slightly higher Wednesday, pausing after posting new contract lows overnight. Prices attempted to rebound but failed to spark meaningful short covering, with consolidation at recent lows.

  • Managed money continues to expand its net short position, with no immediate catalyst in sight to prompt a reversal.

  • The USDA will release the next WASDE/Crop Production report on Friday. While corn yield is likely to remain unchanged until August, updates to acreage and old crop demand could shift new crop carryout estimates.

  • Ethanol production rose to 1.085 million barrels/day last week, ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual corn use target. An estimated 104.9 mb of corn was used, up from the prior week and year.

  • Brazil is still harvesting a record supply of second crop corn. The Brazil corn market is concerned with logistic issues, and a softening demand base, which has weighed on global corn prices as a possible record U.S. corn crop develops.

Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day and have now lost 46-1/2 cents for the week in the August contract as good weather and crop ratings incentivize funds to continue selling. Both soybean meal and oil were lower, but bean oil led the complex lower.

  • Sellers are in control of the soybean market as prices pushed through key levels of resistance during Wednesday’s session. The combination of softening demand tone, a 9-year low in soybean meal prices, and growing global supplies lead the market. Managed funds were still holding a small net long position in soybeans in the last Commitment of Traders report.

  • Pre-report estimates for Friday’s USDA update peg old crop soybean ending stocks at 358 mb (up from June’s 350 mb), and new crop 2025/26 stocks at 302 mb (vs. 295 mb in June).

  • Soybean meal prices push lower as the increase crush demand for oil has produced an excess supply of soybean meal on the global market. As of today’s close, front month soybean meal prices close at their lowest levels since February 2016.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed Wednesday—Chicago posted minor losses, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw modest gains. With winter wheat harvest now past halfway, pressure may be easing. A firmer close in Matif wheat also offered support.

  • The Ukrainian Grain Union is estimating their nation’s 2025 wheat production at 22.4 mmt. This compares with the USDA at 23 mmt. In related news, grain infrastructure in Ukraine is reportedly not damaged after another round of Russian drone attacks. These strikes came shortly after the US resumed aid to Ukraine.

  • South-central Canada remains dry, with scattered showers in the forecast, but overall moisture remains insufficient—posing risks to spring wheat now in its reproductive phase.

  • According to LSEG, between October 2024 and May 2025, Australian wheat exports totaled about 15 mmt, up 2% year-over-year. They are estimating 24/25 total exports at 22.5 mmt, while pegging 25/26 shipments at 23 mmt. In general, Australian wheat exports are said to be encountering growing competition from the Northern Hemisphere, as well as weaker Chinese demand.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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7-8 End of Day: Corn Slumps to New Lows as Crop Ratings Improve and Weather Stays Favorable

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling extended Tuesday, with September corn futures closing below the key $4.00 mark at $3.98. December also posted new contract lows and a low close, pressured by improving crop conditions and bearish technical momentum.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures extended losses, with August down 34¼ cents so far this week. Continued favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt and fresh tariff threats on Japan and South Korea fueled fund selling and risk-off sentiment.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower for a second straight session, pressured by harvest activity, a stronger U.S. dollar, and weakness in corn and soybeans.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw additional selling pressure on Tuesday as better-than-expected crop ratings and technical selling pushed prices to new lows. September corn futures closed at 398 and under the psychological 400 level. December corn posted a new low and low close on the session.

  • USDA crop ratings rose to 74% good-to-excellent, up 1 point from last week and exceeding market expectations for no change. This reinforces sentiment for strong yield potential.

  • Some yield models are now projecting 2–5% above-trend yields, which would imply a record U.S. corn crop if realized.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn overnight. Mexico purchased 112,776 MT of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. These are routine sales and expected by the market in this window and have failed to support prices.

  • Brazil’s second crop harvest reached 28%, up from last week but still well behind the five-year average. Wet weather and logistical delays continue to slow progress despite a record crop on the horizon.

Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower again with the August contract losing 34-1/4 cents just this week so far. Good weather for the bulk of the Corn Belt so far has added pressure along with additional tariffs on Japan and South Korea. Both situations have spurred funds to sell and adopt a risk-off mentality. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil followed crude higher.

  • Crop ratings held steady at 66% good-to-excellent, 2 points below a year ago. Blooming progress reached 32% (vs. 31% avg), and 8% of the crop is setting pods (vs. 6% avg).

  • Exporters reported a sale of 144,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines, split between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 23,023 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of just 425 contracts, but they likely hold a net short position with the action this week. Funds sold 4,908 contracts of bean oil and 21,858 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower again today, continuing yesterday’s downward momentum. Spillover from corn and soybeans, a rising U.S. dollar, and winter wheat harvest pressure are all factors in the lower trade.

  • Crop Progress: Winter wheat ratings held steady at 48% good/excellent, with 53% of the crop harvested—slightly behind the 5-year average. Spring wheat ratings fell 3 points to 50% G/E; 61% of the crop is now headed.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of 25/26 Russian wheat exports by 2.1 mmt to 42.9 mmt. This comes not long after the Russian ag ministry temporarily removed the wheat export duty. For reference the USDA is using an estimate of 45 mmt of Russian wheat exports.

  • The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service is estimating Turkey’s 25/26 wheat imports will total 10.3 mmt. This is 2.75 mmt above the last USDA WASDE forecast.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-7 End of Day: Grains Start Week Lower on Trade Disappointment, Weather Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures came under strong selling pressure to start the week, with December closing at a new contract low and posting double-digit losses after Sunday night’s open.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply lower after gapping down Sunday night and weakening throughout Monday’s session. Markets were disappointed by the lack of a trade announcement during President Trump’s Iowa speech.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling pressure in the corn markets to start the week as the December corn market posted a new contract low close on the session. Corn futures posted double-digit losses, starting from the open on Sunday night.

  • Last week’s pre-holiday short covering rally faded after President Trump’s July 3 speech failed to deliver on rumored trade deal announcements, disappointing markets.

  • Trump also threatened 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea by August 1 unless they open more to U.S. exports—concerning given their role as key U.S. corn buyers.

  • Weekly export inspections remain strong as U.S. exporters shipped 1.491 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn for the week ending July 3. This was near the top end of expectations and total corn exports are running 30% ahead of last year.

  • Weather forecasts remain friendly for corn development going into later July. Expectations are for USDA crop rating to maintain the 73% good/excellent rating on Monday’s crop condition report.

Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after gapping lower last night and continuing to fade into today’s close. Traders had anticipated a trade announcement from President Trump on Friday when he spoke in Iowa, but none was announced. Both soybean meal and oil were lower despite higher crude prices.

  • The announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea added pressure to grain and equity markets. Ongoing favorable weather and crop conditions, combined with fears of large ending stocks and weaker exports, fueled bearish sentiment.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections within trade estimates but towards the higher end of guesses at 14.3 million bushels for the week ending July 3. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.700 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • Argentina has now completed its soybean harvest and has also updated its production, citing better-than-expected yields. The country is said to have produced 50.3 mmt, which is slightly above last year’s 50.2 mmt.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans. Disappointment over the lack of a trade announcement from President Trump and continued favorable U.S. weather weighed on prices.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 16 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 64.6 mb, up 1% from last year and on pace to meet USDA’s 825 mb export projection.

  • Indonesia signed an MoU with the U.S. to purchase at least 800,000 mt of wheat in 2025 and 1 mmt annually through 2030. As the world’s second-largest wheat importer, this could support long-term demand.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $225 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. SovEcon also reported that Russia’s wheat exports last week totaled just 100,000 mt compared with 190,000 mt the previous week. In related news, the Russian ag ministry removed the wheat export tax between July 9-15, attempting to increase sales.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported Argentine wheat plantings for 25/26 have reached 78.2% complete. This is up just 5.5% from last week, as progress has been said to be delayed by recent rains.

  • The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is projecting 25/26 global grain production at a record 2.93 billion tons. Total grain stocks are estimated at 889.1 mmt, up from 869.5 mmt last year. Wheat stocks in particular are forecast at 321.0 mmt, which is up 11 mmt from the June estimate.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-3 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Finish Higher; Wheats Lower Heading into the Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended gains Thursday on follow-through buying and support from firm export demand, including a flash sale to unknown destinations. Traders also trimmed short positions ahead of President Trump’s remarks in Iowa, while attention is expected to shift back to weather-driven trade post-holiday as the corn crop approaches key grain fill stages.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher Thursday despite favorable weather, as funds continued buying ahead of a possible trade deal announcement from President Trump. A strong export sales report and passage of the 2025 budget bill including 45Z biodiesel support added to the day’s bullish tone.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat closed lower Thursday, under pressure from winter wheat harvest activity, technical resistance, and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index — all of which weighed on momentum, even as corn and soybeans finished higher.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some follow-through buying on Thursday after Wednesday’s strong price action. Corn futures prices softened off session highs but managed to hold support at the end of the day. A bump in export demand and firm export sales supported the corn market during the session.

  • Grain markets anticipated President Trump’s remarks in Iowa on July 3. Traders have likely trimmed short positions for the prospects of some trade announcement by the President during his speech.

  • USDA released weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 26, US exporters reported new net sales of 532,700 MT (21 mb) for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This was down 28% from last week. For the new crop, exporters reported new net sales of 940,200 MT (37 mb) for 2025/2026 for the marketing year. For the 2024-25 marketing year, total sales have reached 2.681 BB, which is 6 mb above the USDA target of 2.675 BB for the marketing year.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Thursday. Unknown destinations purchased 150,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. With recent price weakness and soft US dollar, US corn has become more competitive in the export market.

  • After the 4th of July weekend, the market will shift back to weather for the second half of July into August. This will be a key time for grain fill in corn and soybean crops. If the weather forecast remains favorable for crops, sellers will likely step back into the market.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the majority of gains in the front months after prices faded from earlier highs. Funds have been buyers the past two days despite good weather as they anticipate a potential trade deal announcement from President Trump. Soybean meal ended the day higher while bean oil followed crude lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was friendly for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 17.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 8.8 mb for 25/26. This was up 15% from the previous week and up 62% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and the United Kingdoms. Last week’s export shipments of 9.2 mb were below the 14.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.

  • Today, the House voted to pass the 2025 budget bill which included 45Z framework for biodiesel. With the 4th of July holiday tomorrow, the markets will re-open Sunday night, and we will see how the soybean oil market reacts.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 28-1.2 cents at $10.56-1/4 while November soybeans gained 24-3/4 cents to $10.64-1/2. August soybean meal gained $1.80 to $277.40 while August soybean oil gained 2.07 cents to 54.55 cents.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in the red, despite a positive finish for corn and soybeans. It appears a combination of winter wheat harvest pressure and futures running into technical resistance caused wheat to lose upward momentum today. A rebound for the US Dollar Index was also unsupportive.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week at 20.3 exceeded the 15.8 mb pace needed per week to reach their 825 mb export goal. Total 25/26 export commitments have risen to 264 mb, up 4% from last year.

  • President Trump is expected to speak tonight in Des Moines, Iowa. Producers are hopeful that he may announce progress towards a trade deal with China. With markets closed tomorrow for the 4th of July, this could lead to a volatile trade early next week.

  • According to the USDA, as of July 1, an estimated 24% of the winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions, up 4% from last week. Spring wheat areas in drought also increased 4% during that period, to 29%. Expanding dryness in the northwestern US has caused some concerns about spring wheat crop conditions.tails remain limited, broader trade optimism added support to grain markets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

US 6 to 10-day temperate outlook courtesy of NOAA.

|

7-2 End of Day: Grains Surge on Trade Optimism Ahead of Holiday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted strong gains Wednesday, supported by short covering and technical buying as traders squared positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply higher Wednesday, lifted by strong crush data, short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, and trade optimism following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam deal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted double-digit gains across all classes Wednesday, buoyed by short covering and spillover strength from soybeans amid rumors of renewed Chinese buying interest.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted strong gains Wednesday, supported by short covering and technical buying as traders squared positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.076 million barrels per day, down slightly from the prior week, but still enough to keep corn usage on pace to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • U.S. corn is regaining competitiveness on the global market as a weaker dollar and lower prices improve its value relative to South American offers. Brazil’s slower-than-usual harvest is also offering modest support.

  • StoneX raised their production forecast for the Brazil corn crop to 136.1 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from their last forecast.  USDA is still holding a 130 MMT projection.

  • Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report is expected to show corn sales ranging from 400,000–1.0 MMT (old crop) and 500,000–900,000 MT (new crop), following 1.46 MMT in total sales last week.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed sharply higher Wednesday, lifted by strong crush data, short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, and trade optimism following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam deal. Soybean meal and oil also posted solid gains.

  • The USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed soybean crushings for May at 203.7 million bushels. This was up 6.3% from the same period last year and up from the previous month. Crude oil production was 6.5% higher.

  • The new U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement allows U.S. goods to enter Vietnam tariff-free, while Vietnamese goods face a 20% tariff into the U.S. — a potential boost for U.S. ag exports.

  • In India, palm oil imports shot higher by 61% to hit an 11-month high for the month of June because of lower domestic inventories. This is bullish for all veg oils.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit gains across the board, likely following soybeans higher after rumors that China is looking to buy beans from the U.S. This may have caused some short covering in the grain markets. A weaker U.S. Dollar and earlier USDA cuts to harvested acreage also supported the rally.

  •  Forecasts call for a Canadian storm system next week, but rainfall may be patchy, potentially missing key areas in the southern and eastern Prairies. This dryness could lend support to spring wheat prices.

  • Argentina exported a record 23.5 MMT of grain in June, rushing to beat a tax hike on corn and soybean exports effective July 1. Wheat exports were not subject to the change, which may pressure prices going forward.

  • President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam Wednesday. While details remain limited, broader trade optimism added support to grain markets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-1 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Pressured by Ratings; Wheat and Soybeans Supported by Policy and Acreage Data

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower Tuesday, pressured by improved crop ratings and a lack of bullish catalysts. Nearby contracts hit new lows before paring losses, as soybeans and wheat ended higher.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a choppy session, supported by strength in soybean oil. Soy oil rallied on news of President Trump’s newly passed bill, which included favorable biodiesel provisions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the day lower on Tuesday as improved crop ratings and bullish news was just lacking in the corn market. Nearby corn future traded to new contracts lows before firming as both soybean and wheat markets finished with gains on the day.

  • Sellers remained in control following Monday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, which offered few surprises. Strong crop ratings and a building global supply outlook continue to weigh on sentiment.

  • The USDA saw a 3% jump in crop ratings in Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report to 73% G/E. The market expectation was for unchanged ratings for the week. With the improved crop ratings, market participants are leaning to corn yield to be above trend line yields at this point.

  • The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022, helping keep U.S. corn exports competitive relative to South American supplies.

  • The weather remains friendly for the development of the corn crop. Long range weather models are forecasting a return to a moderate temperature pattern and still above normal rainfall going into the second half of July.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher Tuesday, supported by gains in soybean oil following the passage of President Trump’s new bill, which includes favorable biodiesel provisions. November soybeans found support near $10.15, while soybean meal ended lower, marking new yearly lows.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace. Summer weather will be the important factor going forward.

  • Monday’s USDA report was mostly neutral. Soybean acres were pegged at 83.38 million, in line with expectations but well below last year’s 87.05 million. Stocks were slightly bearish at 1.008 billion bushels, up from 970 million last year.

  • Italy announced plans to boost U.S. soybean imports to help address trade imbalances, and India is reportedly nearing a trade agreement with the U.S.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.

  • USDA crop condition ratings showed winter wheat at 48% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week. Harvest progress reached 37%, trailing both last year’s 52% and the five-year average of 42%. Spring wheat was rated 53% G/E, also down 1%, with 96% emerged and 38% headed.

  • Argus Media’s latest estimate pegs Ukrainian 25/26 wheat production at 21.9 mmt, down from 23.7 mmt previously. This would also be down 2.5% from the 24/25 season. The update comes after a virtual crop tour in June.

  • Ukraine finished their export season on June 30, with a total of 40.6 mmt of grain shipments. That is down about 21% from last year’s total. Wheat in particular accounted for 15.7 mmt of exports, which was down 15% year over year.

  • According to an announcement from the Rosario Grain Exchange yesterday, Argentina’s dry and cool weather forecast should boost planting of the 25/26 wheat crop. Additionally, yields are expected to increase due to good soil moisture levels. The RGE expects planted area to reach 7.1 million hectares, up from 6.9 million last season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-30 End of Day: USDA Data Comes in Near Expectations – Grains End Monday Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with nearby contracts lower and deferred months higher. USDA reports leaned slightly bearish, but modest acreage keeps upside potential if weather turns adverse.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.

  • The USDA Acreage report pegged planted corn acres at 95.2 million, slightly below expectations and down 120,000 from March — largely neutral to trade ideas.

  • June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks came in at 4.644 billion bushels, matching expectations and 350 mb below last year, underscoring strong old-crop demand.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.370 MMT (53.9 mb), keeping the pace 29% above last year and ~140 mb ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA’s export target with eight weeks left.

  • The weekly crop conditions report will be released on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for conditions to remain unchanged at 70% G/E — a five-year high for this point in the season.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with July and August contracts finishing lower while deferred months closed higher. July soybeans are now in delivery and expire July 14. The USDA reports were largely neutral with a slightly bearish tilt, though modest acreage keeps upside potential intact if weather turns threatening. Both soybean meal and oil posted gains.

  • USDA pegged planted acreage at 83.38 million acres, nearly matching expectations (83.66 ma) but well below last year’s 87.05 ma. Grain stocks came in at 1.008 billion bushels vs. 970 million last year — slightly bearish but within range.

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 8.3 million bushels, soft for the week, but cumulative inspections for 2024/25 are now at 1.685 billion bushels — up 10% from last year. USDA projects exports at 1.850 bb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and 2,999 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news. Mixed closes in corn and soybeans offered no spillover strength.

  • USDA pegged all wheat acreage at 45.5 million acres — slightly bearish. While below last year’s 46.1 ma, it came in 100,000 acres above both the March intentions and average trade estimates.

  • Quarterly wheat stocks were notably bearish at 851 million bushels—above the high end of trade expectations and well above last year’s 696 mb.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were 16 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 47 mb, which is down 8% from last year. Inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 1% from the year prior.

  • On a bullish note, Argentina is said to need more moisture for establishment of their winter wheat crop. There is not much precipitation in the forecast, except for scattered showers this weekend. It is a similar story for Australia, with winter wheat areas too dry.

  • Western Europe continues to endure heat and dryness early this week, with some relief expected midweek.

  • According to a German farming association (DBV) estimate, their nation’s 25/26 grain harvest is expected to total 40.1 mmt, compared to 39 mmt the year prior. This 2.8% increase may be partially due to increased winter crop plantings. Good conditions in the fall allowed for this increase, and 2.78 million hectares of winter wheat were said to be planted.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following Friday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale.  As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-27 End of Day: Grains Rebound Ahead of USDA Report and Weather Shift

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, ending the week with moderate to strong gains. Support came from short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, though December corn still finished the week down 14 ¼ cents.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybean futures closed higher on Friday, breaking a five-day losing streak. The rally was supported by updated European weather models pointing to a hotter, drier July outlook, along with likely short covering ahead of the weekend.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, closing the week with moderate to strong gains. A weaker U.S. dollar, short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, and July first notice day helped lift the market. Despite Friday’s rebound, December corn still ended the week down 14 ¼ cents.

  • Much of Friday’s strength was likely tied to pre-report positioning and short covering. The trade expects planted corn acres as of June 1 to total 95.35 million, slightly above the March estimate of 95.3 million. However, the wide range of analyst estimates (93.8 to 96.8 million) adds potential for volatility when the report is released.

  • Argentina will be reinstalling their export taxes on July 1, increasing the costs of Argentina ag products. The taxes were originally dropped to promote demand and raise revenue.

  • Weather forecasts remain favorable for crop development into early July, with near-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall expected. However, some models are now introducing hotter conditions for mid-July, which could impact pollination.

  • New-crop corn sales have picked up recently. Last week saw 12 million bushels in export sales, while Mexico added 25 million bushels of new-crop purchases during the week.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, this week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended higher Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak. Support came after the European weather model shifted overnight, projecting a hotter and drier July than previously expected. Additionally, short covering ahead of the weekend likely added to the strength. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil remained under pressure.

  • Soybean meal continues to face global headwinds, with increased crush capacity in both the U.S. and South America leading to abundant supplies. The August soybean meal contract has dropped $20 per ton over the past two weeks after breaking technical support, and this week marked the lowest price levels since 2016.

  • Looking ahead to Monday, USDA will release its updated Acreage Report. While expectations are for soybean acreage to remain steady at 83.5 million acres, trade estimates range between 82.0 and 85.0 million, leaving room for a surprise.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.For the week, July soybeans lost 40 1/4 cents, settling at $10.27 3/4, while November fell 36 cents to $10.24 3/4. July soybean meal dropped $13.00 to $271.10, and July soybean oil slipped 2.02 cents to 52.45 cents. First notice day for July grain contracts is June 30, with expiration on July 14.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support this week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat, strength in corn and soybeans, and optimism around potential progress in U.S.-China trade discussions, prompting a technical bounce.

  • Attention now shifts to Monday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports. Pre-report estimates peg U.S. wheat stocks at 835 million bushels, significantly above last year’s 696 mb. All-wheat planted acreage is expected to remain unchanged from March at 45.4 million acres — if realized, the second smallest total since 1919.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is 73% planted. This is slightly behind last year’s pace, but above the five-year average, as dry weather has allowed sowing to progress. However, it is being reported that both Argentina and Australian wheat corps are in need of moisture.

  • Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat acreage at 26.925 million acres, a reduction from March’s 27.475 million and below trade expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.809 million acres, also down from March (19.4 ma) and under the Bloomberg survey estimate of 19.2 ma.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following yesterday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale.  As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-26 End of Day: Grains Face Downside Pressure Once Again

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn prices were pressured again for a fifth straight session on bearish weather and lack of bullish news.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybeans closed lower as sellers remain active with beneficial rainfall for much of the growing areas throughout the US.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets continue to see weakness despite a three-year low on the dollar index today. Bearish weather and geopolitical risk cooling off are creating pressure on wheat prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • While the selling pressure seemed to slow on Thursday, the corn market still placed new contract lows and finished lower for the fifth consecutive session. Continued weakness in the wheat market and lack of a weather threat keep buyers mostly on the sideline again.

  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 19, US exporters posted new sales of 741,200 MT (29.2 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 305,500 MT (12.0 mb) for 2025-26. With today’s sales, this puts the total sold for the 2024-25 marketing year at 2.660 billion bushels. This is 99.4% of the USDA target of 2.675 BB with 10 weeks left in the marketing year.

  • The mmarket may be starting to position for Monday USDA Planted Acres report. Expectations for corn acres as of June 1 to be 95.4 million acres, up 100,000 acres from the March projection of 95.3 million. The range of analyst estimates is wide from 93.8 – 96.8 million acres. The wide range adds to the potential volatility before Monday’s report.

  •  Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats. 

  • The prospects of lower interest rates has pressured the US dollar. On Thursday, the US dollar index traded to its lowest level since February 2022 which should help support commodity prices.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled through June, recently breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap after the roll to September. A close above $4.46 would open the door to resistance near $4.65. On the downside, support lies at $4.20, with a weekly break below that exposing a potential move to $4.08.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the fifth consecutive day as selling pressure continues on good, wet weather through the Corn Belt and a general bearish tone from the funds. Soybean meal finished the day lower while soybean oil was higher along with crude oil.

  • Today’s export sales report came in better than expected with an increase of 14.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 5.7 mb for 25/26. This was above last week’s sales and up from the prior 4-week average. Top destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 13.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.850 bb for 24/25. In more friendly news, the USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 tons of US soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. However, with this week’s break below support at 1032.50, the next downside target shifts to the April low at 970.25.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat sustained yet another round of losses during today’s session, shrugging off support from a sharply lower US Dollar Index. A combination of poor export sales, winter crop harvest pressure, and another lower close for Matif wheat all weighed on prices. On a positive note, wheat is nearing oversold territory on some technical indicators, which could mean that a bottom is near.  

  • The USDA reported an increase of 9.4 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 9.4 mb, which falls under the 15.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments for 25/26 are now at 242 mb, up 8% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of June 24, an estimated 20% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 6% from a week ago. Spring wheat acres in drought also saw an uptick of 3% versus last week to 25%. For reference, only 5% of spring wheat was in drought at this time last year.

  • IKAR reportedly increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 700,000 mt to 84.5 mmt. For reference, both the USDA and SovEcon are projecting the Russian wheat harvest at 83 mmt; SovEcon also just raised their forecast by 200,000 mt.

  • The International Grains Council has issued a new world wheat production forecast for the 25/26 season, raising their estimate by 2 mmt to 808 mmt. This is now more in line with the USDA’s estimate of 808.6 mmt.

  • In a survey from Bloomberg, the average guess for Canadian all wheat planted area is expected at 27.7 million acres, with a range of 26.0 to 28.5. This would be up 200,000 acres from Stats Canada’s estimate in March, and up 900,000 from 2024.

  • One private research firm is pegging Chinese 25/26 wheat production at 141.7 mmt, which is unchanged from their last update. However, this is despite drought in southern China. It is said that irrigation in these areas helped to keep wheat conditions satisfactory, while adequate moisture in northern areas will help offset any losses in the south.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-25 End of Day: Grains Slide as Sellers Stay in Control Ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Sellers remained in control for a fourth consecutive session Wednesday, with corn futures posting moderate losses and fresh contract lows. A combination of favorable weather, strong U.S. crop potential, and record Brazilian production continues to keep buyers sidelined.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • New upside target added.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers maintained control of the grain market for the fourth straight session, and corn futures finished with new lows and moderate losses. Between good weather, large Brazil and new crop U.S. corn crop potential, buyers are still on the sidelines.

  •  Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new corn sales to range from 500-1.2 MMT for cold crop and 100,000 – 350,000 MT for new crop. 

  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.081 million barrels per day, down from 1.109 mbpd the previous week. An estimated 104.8 million bushels of corn were used — slightly lower week over week but still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual ethanol demand target.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled through June, recently breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap after the roll to September. A close above $4.46 would open the door to resistance near $4.65. On the downside, support lies at $4.20, with a weekly break below that exposing a potential move to $4.08.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather. July soybeans have lost 42 3/4 cents this week, while November is down 42 1/4 cents. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal leading the decline.

  • Crude oil began to recover slightly today following the tensions and then apparent cease fire agreement between Israel and Iran. Higher crude oil prices should benefit soybean oil and therefore the soy complex. In addition, the declining dollar is supportive to exports.

  • Looking ahead, the USDA will release its Acreage Report on Monday. Analysts expect soybean planted acres to remain near 83.5 million, though estimates range from 82.0 to 85.0 million acres. Corn acres are expected to rise slightly.

  • Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec raised its June soybean export forecast to 14.99 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 14.36 mmt.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. However, with this week’s break below support at 1032.50, the next downside target shifts to the April low at 970.25.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by weaker Matif wheat, declines in corn and soybeans, a general risk-off tone in commodities, winter wheat harvest pressure, and likely renewed fund shorting.

  • A Bloomberg survey suggests traders expect little change to U.S. all-wheat acreage in Friday’s USDA report, holding near 45.4 million acres. However, June 1 wheat stocks are expected to rise 20% year-over-year to 836 million bushels.

  • SovEcon increased their estimate of Russia’s 2025 grain production to 129.5 mmt. Wheat accounts for 83 mmt of that total, which is steady with the USDA’s forecast. In related news, Russian spring wheat conditions have improved – many areas have seen recent rainfall which has improved soil moisture levels.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level—and especially beneath the May low of 572.50—would open the door to further downside risk.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather