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7-23 End of Day: Weather Trumps Trade: Grains Drift Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower Wednesday, weighed down by favorable weather forecasts across key growing regions that continue to reinforce expectations for a record-large crop. Despite recent trade deal headlines and overnight developments, weather remains the dominant market driver.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower Tuesday, retreating from early session highs sparked by trade optimism. Gains were initially fueled by news of a trade agreement with Japan and a potential deal with the Philippines.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished lower across all classes Tuesday, pressured by a pullback in Matif wheat and technical selling after encountering resistance at key moving averages.

  • To see the updated U.S weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed lower today, pressured by favorable weather forecasts across key growing regions, which continue to reinforce expectations for a record-breaking harvest. The market also struggled to build momentum following yesterday’s trade deal announcements and overnight developments, as favorable weather continues to take precedence over potential demand drivers. The lead month September contract remains below the psychological 400 price level.

  • Traders remain cautious regarding the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, as Japan is already a major buyer of U.S. corn. In 2024, Japan ranked as the second-largest customer, importing $2.7 billion worth of corn. However, with few concrete details available, it remains unclear whether the deal will spur additional demand or simply formalize existing trade flows.

  • Ethanol production for the week ending July 18 slightly declined to 1.078 million barrels per day, down from 1.087 million the previous week, marking a 1.6% year-over-year decrease. The production process consumed 15.37 million bushels of corn per day, exceeding the 15.3 million bushels per day pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual target. Year-to-date corn usage for ethanol production now totals 4.827 billion bushels.

  • Ethanol stocks rose to 24.44 million barrels, marking a 3.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The build in stocks suggest that no changes are expected to the USDA’s corn usage forecast in the upcoming WASDE report.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after falling from highs earlier in the day. The initial run higher was a result of a trade agreement with Japan and a deal in the works with the Philippines. Although August is expected to be hot and on the drier side, forecasts have slowly shifted to be slightly more favorable for growing conditions.

  • Expectations for a large crop and softening demand continue to weigh on new-crop balance sheets. Some analysts project 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks could rise to 510 million bushels — well above the USDA’s July estimate of 310 million — amid weaker domestic demand and export uncertainty.

  • In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing U.S. trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.

  • While Monday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean good to excellent ratings fall by 2 points to 68%, this is still a strong number historically. August weather will be a key factor and forecasts continue to fluctuate. States where crop conditions have fallen have primarily been Kansas and North Dakota.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures finished lower across all classes Tuesday, pressured by a pullback in Matif wheat and technical selling after encountering resistance at key moving averages. The weakness came despite a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which, while centered on the auto sector, includes agricultural products and raises hopes for future trade deals.

  • Day one of the Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour reported average yields of 50 bushels per acre in North Dakota after 167 fields were sampled. That’s down slightly from last year’s 52.5 bpa and well below the USDA’s forecast of 59 bpa, offering early insight into potential production shortfalls.

  • According to LSEG commodities research, 25/26 European Union and United Kingdom combined wheat production is estimated at 147.9 mmt, which is a 1.2% boost from their last projection. Recently, central Europe has seen favorable rains, which is cited as the reason for the increase.

  • FranceAgriMer has reported that 71% of the French soft wheat crop has been harvested as of July 14. Favorable weather has allowed the pace of fieldwork to pick up recently. In related news, The International Grain Council said that Russia’s wheat harvest is 28% complete – they also noted that so far, production is down 30% from 2024.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-22 End of Day: Grains End Mixed as Traders Digest Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Pressure remains on the corn market, which ended the day with losses for the second consecutive session. The decline was driven by favorable weather forecasts and strong crop conditions across the U.S.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day lower as traders digested yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report and continued to monitor ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat was the only major grain to post gains on Tuesday, supported by Monday’s Crop Progress report and a weaker U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell for a second straight session, pressured by strong crop ratings and favorable weather forecasts, leading to moderate losses across the market. The lead month September contract closed back below the psychological 400 price level.

  • Weekly crop ratings for corn remain unchanged at 74% G/E. Ratings would have likely improved, but rating drops in Colorado and Pennsylvania limited any movement. Regardless, this is the best rated corn since 2016. The final yield in 2016 finished 3.9% above the trend line yield to start the marketing year.

  • Weather forecasts continue to moderate heading into August, adding pressure to the grain markets. Following a stretch of above-normal temperatures, early August outlooks are now calling for below-normal readings, which should reduce crop stress and support kernel fill.

  • South Korea’s Mill Feed Group is looking to purchase corns and current bids for export corn for fall delivery have Brazil and Argentina prices at a discount to the U.S.

  • Brazil corn harvest has been picking up speed, supported by improved weather. As of July 19, the second crop corn harvest was 55.5% complete, up nearly 14% over last week, but still well behind the 5-year average. Recently, wet weather and the logistics of handling a record corn crop have limited harvest progress..

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but came off their lows earlier in the day. The November contract took out yesterday’s low and is trading below the major moving averages. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop ratings fall slightly which should be supportive especially if weather gets hot and dry throughout August.

  • Soybean oil followed crude oil lower today, while soybean meal found support on reports that President Trump is nearing a trade agreement with the Philippines. The potential deal could boost export demand for both soybeans and soybean meal.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop ratings for soybeans falling by 2 points from last week to 68% good to excellent. This is on par with this time last year. 62% of the crop is blooming compared to the average of 63% and 26% is setting pods which compares to the average of 26% at this time of year.

  • In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing U.S. trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session with gains across all classes, despite lower closes in corn and soybean futures. Support came from a weaker U.S. dollar, reports of slowed farmer selling globally, and increased buying interest from end users for Russian wheat. Additionally, a decline in U.S. spring wheat crop ratings contributed to the bullish sentiment.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that the U.S. winter wheat harvest is 73% complete, compared to 75% last year and a five-year average of 72%. Furthermore, the spring wheat crop condition fell 2% from last week to 52% good to excellent; the wheat crop is 87% headed which is in line with last year an 1% behind average.

  • Interfax has estimated Russian 25/26 grain exports will total between 53-55 mmt. Of that amount, wheat is expected to account for 43-44 mmt, which would be in line with last season. In addition, they left their grain harvest estimate unchanged at 135 mmt, with 88-90 mmt of that being wheat.

  • Iraq is reported to have harvested 5.119 mmt of wheat this season. With reserves of about 1.5 mmt from last year, the total is closer to 6.5 mmt. Despite ongoing drought conditions, this marks the third consecutive year the government has not needed to import wheat for its subsidized food program. New irrigation projects have helped boost production, and authorities are reportedly working to build additional silos to increase reserves.

  • According to CONAB, 91% of the projected wheat area has been planted in Brazil, which is in line with last year and the average. Region by region there is some variance, however, with 99% of Parana planted, but only 39% complete in Santa Catarina.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-21 End of Day: Grain Markets Retreat as Forecasts Turn Wetter

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week lower as weekend rains and a moderating forecast prompted the removal of some weather premium priced in last week.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day lower on bear spreading, with front-month contracts leading losses. Weekend forecasts shifted wetter with slightly less heat, applying pressure across the grain complex.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three U.S. classes, despite early strength. Losses followed weakness in corn, soybeans, and Paris (Matif) wheat. Weekend rains in the Northern Plains boosted spring wheat prospects, while uncertainty over potential August 1 tariffs contributed to long liquidation.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week lower as weekend rains and a moderating forecast prompted the removal of some weather premium priced in last week. A poor export inspection report also added pressure, raising concerns about weakening demand.

  • Weather forecasts eased to start the week, with expectations for less intense and shorter-duration heat. Improved rainfall projections for late July also weighed on futures, softening concerns about prolonged stress on the crop.

  • Weekly corn export inspections came in below expectations, with U.S. exporters shipping just 984,000 metric tons (38.7 million bushels). While total exports remain 29% above last year, the weak showing followed an already disappointing sales report, fueling worries about demand erosion amid Brazil’s record harvest.

  • Brazil analyst firm, Agrural raised their corn production output for the 2024-25 season to 136.3 MMT, up from 130.6 in their last projection. Favorable weather for the key second crop Brazil corn has supported this production raise.

  • The U.S. dollar broke lower from recent consolidation, potentially signaling a return to a weaker trend. A softer dollar would generally provide support for U.S. corn and grain exports by improving global competitiveness.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 29,106 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 174,755 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in bear spreading actions with the front months taking the brunt of losses. Forecasts over the weekend shifted to show more precipitation and a bit less heat from previous forecasts, which pressured the entire grain market today. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil moved higher again.

  • Today’s export inspections report was on the soft side for soybeans with inspections totaling 13.5 million bushels for the week ending July 17. This was within trade expectations and was above last weeks. Total inspections for 24/25 are up 10% from last year.

  • In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing US trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 26,062 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 32,278 contracts. They bought 5,480 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 43,221 contracts and sold 1,537 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,016 contracts.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 26,062 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 32,278 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three U.S. classes, despite early strength. Losses followed weakness in corn, soybeans, and Paris (Matif) wheat. Weekend rains in the Northern Plains boosted spring wheat prospects, while uncertainty over potential August 1 tariffs likely contributed to long liquidation ahead of the U.S. Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 26.9 million bushels, bringing the 2025/26 total to 111 million bushels—14% ahead of last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s pace for projected exports of 850 million bushels, which would be a 3% increase year over year.

  • Bangladesh signed a five-year trade agreement to purchase 700,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat annually—a bullish development, as the country traditionally relies on Black Sea suppliers and buys far less from the U.S.

  • The weather outlook for the month of August in South America calls for widespread warmth, which should alleviate freeze concerns. Additionally, dryness in Argentina should allow for the end of wheat planting to go smoothly.

  • Over the weekend the Canadian prairies saw scattered showers. Heavier totals were present in Saskatchewan and Alberta, with lighter amounts in Manitoba (where it has been drier). Additionally, more rain is expected through next week. In general, this moisture should benefit their spring wheat crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,893 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 60,487 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,683 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 48,002 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,284 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 997 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

7-18 End of Day: Grains End Week Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week on a strong note, with buyers returning amid short covering and technical buying. Support was triggered by forecasts calling for hotter weather ahead. For the week, December corn futures gained 15 ½ cents.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher as forecasts turned hotter and drier for the 6- to 10-day period. A weaker U.S. dollar added support across the grain complex, but weather will remain the key driver if the pattern persists into August.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures led the grain complex higher Friday, posting double-digit gains for both Chicago and Kansas City contracts. The rally was likely technical, following support established earlier this week.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers returned to the corn market to end the week. Additional short covering and technical buying was noticed in the grain markets as the prospect of a hotter weather forecast triggered some premium in the corn market. For the week, December corn futures gained 15 ½ cents.

  • The 7-day outlook for the Corn Belt remains warm and wet. Forecast maps show much of the region could receive up to 140% of normal rainfall, which may prove critical if drier weather materializes as projected heading into August.

  • Technical buying added support as corn futures pushed through key moving averages. However, the $4.30 level held as resistance, marking a critical threshold for the market heading into next week.

  • Brazil’s corn harvest is accelerating amid drier weather, boosting availability. With Brazilian farmers managing record-large soybean and corn crops, the increase in global supplies may limit upside potential for U.S. corn prices.

  • Argentina is in the final stages of this year’s corn harvest. As of Wednesday, corn harvest was 73% complete, down from last year’s 80% level due to wet weather. The Argentina corn crop is projected near 49 MMT.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher as forecasts turned hotter and drier for the 6- to 10-day period. A weaker U.S. dollar added support across the grain complex, but weather will remain the key driver if the pattern persists into August. Soybean meal finished higher, while bean oil slipped.

  • November soybean futures broke through all three major moving averages on Friday. Despite late-session weakness, the contract closed above the 50-day moving average at $10.34 ½ — the first such close since July 3, signaling near-term technical strength.

  • Soybeans drew support this week from surging soybean oil prices, which hit new highs Thursday. However, with no progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, futures remain rangebound. China typically ramps up U.S. purchases in August, but a potential Trump-Xi meeting still appears weeks away.

  • For the week, August soybeans gained 23-1/2 cents at $10.27-3/4 while November gained 28-1/2 cents to $10.35-3/4. August soybean meal gained $3.70 to finish at $274 and August soybean oil gained 2.07 cents to close the week at 55.82 cents.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found this week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures led the grain complex higher, posting double-digit gains for both Chicago and Kansas City contracts. Early strength was likely sparked by news of new EU sanctions against Russia. Although these measures target the energy sector, some support spilled over into the grain markets.

  • September Paris milling wheat futures broke through and closed above the 50-day moving average resistance today, offering a boost to the U.S. market.

  • According to Chinese customs data, their June wheat and wheat flour imports totaled just 350,000 mt, down 70.6% year over year for that month. The year-to-date figure at 1.96 mmt is down 78.9% year over year.

  • In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine wheat planting was reported at 92.8% complete, up from 91% last week. An estimated 6.7 million hectares will be planted in total, up from 6.3 million last year.

  • France’s wheat harvest has advanced to 71% complete as of July 14, according to FranceAgriMer. This is up sharply from the 36% that was collected as the week before, and only 12% at this time a year ago.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: From ag-wx.com

|

7-17 End of Day: Grains End Mixed Following Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended Thursday’s trading session lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, as a disappointing export sales report weighed on the market.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans were the only major grain to end in positive territory, posting gains at the close, supported by a favorable export sales report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board today, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar and ongoing global harvest activity.

  • To see updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the three-session winning streak as the market posted marginal losses on Thursday. A disappointing export sales report and weakness in the wheat market pressured corn futures in the session.

  • The USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending July 10, U.S. exporters sold 97,600 Mt (3.8 mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year. This total was well below expectations and a marketing year low. New sales were lacking, but a large portion of sales to unknown destinations were switched to a known sale in the week. New sales for the 2025-26 marketing year were 565,900 MT (22.3 mb), which was within expectations.

  • Wheat futures pressured the corn market, as wheat prices traded to 2-month lows. A firming U.S. dollar and global harvest pressure limited the market. The technical picture of the wheat market looks weak, which could limit potential gains in the corn market.

  • Over the next 7 days, the forecast for the Corn Belt looks to remain warm and wet. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal, but it is predicted that most of the Corn Belt will see 140% of normal rainfall according to forecast maps.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day but may have hit some technical resistance at the 200-day moving average in the November contract at $10.30. Weather models have not turned dry for August, so funds may be taking profits on short positions. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Today’s export sales report saw bean sales within trade expectations with an increase of 10.0 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 29.5 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Taiwan, Germany, and Algeria. Last week’s export shipments of 10.2 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week.

  • U.S. soybean yields are reported steady with improving condition scores thanks to favorable weather so far in July. Production is estimated at 118 mmt on average, but a heatwave forecast at the end of the month could negatively impact the crop during prime growth period.

  • Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption has reached 48% of its target as of July 16, and the Indonesian government is reportedly running tests to increase the mandatory biodiesel mix to 50%. Indonesian palm oil exports for June rose by 30.5%.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by a recovery and a new near-term high for the U.S. Dollar Index. Additionally, Russia currently holds the most competitive wheat prices globally, and there is speculation that it may become more aggressive in targeting sales to the Asian market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 18.2 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 15.9 mb, which falls under the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments are now at 303 mb, up 7% from last year.

  • As of July 15, drought readings increased for both U.S. winter and spring wheat areas. An estimated 36% of the spring wheat crop is experiencing drought, up 1% from last week. During the same period, winter wheat area drought conditions rose from 26% to 30%.

  • On a bullish note, the Rosario Grain Exchange has revised their estimate of Argentine wheat production, lowering it by 700,000 mt to 20 mmt. Elsewhere, Turkey’s wheat harvest is also expected to fall by 3 mmt to 18 mmt due to drought.

  • FranceAgriMer has said that French wheat stocks for the 25/26 season are expected to grow 66% year over year to 3.87 mmt. If realized, this would also be a 20-year high. Additionally, they are projecting that 25/26 soft wheat exports will total 14.32 mmt, compared with 10.36 mmt shipped during the 24/25 marketing year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

7-16 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Rebound on Fund Short-Covering and Dollar Weakness; Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by fund short covering, above-normal temperature forecasts, and outside market volatility.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures surged Wednesday after three days of losses, as traders responded to oversold technicals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Soybean meal and oil also posted gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday: Chicago posted small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw slight losses. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar offered some support.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by fund short covering, above-normal temperature forecasts, and outside market volatility.

  • Managed funds continued to unwind large short positions, contributing to gains despite declining open interest.

  • Talk of President Trump removing Fed Chair Powell from his position had markets on edge during the session. The potential pressured the U.S. dollar lower for the first time in nine sessions, supporting grain markets. Comments by President Trump later in the day denying Chair Powell’s possible removal brought volatility to the markets.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose slightly to 1.087 million barrels/day, using 105.1 million bushels of corn — just below the pace needed to hit USDA’s annual target.

  • Hot weather is forecast into late July across parts of the Corn Belt, with much of the crop entering pollination and early grain fill, adding modest weather premium to prices.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures surged Wednesday after three days of losses, as traders responded to oversold technicals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Soybean meal and oil also posted gains.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 25/26 marketing year. Export sales have been on the slow side, but the reduction in planted acreage this year should provide support with reduced supply.

  • June NOPA crush totaled 185.71 mb, a record for the month and above expectations—down 3.7% from May, but up 5.8% year-over-year. The market remains cautious about excess soybean meal from increased crush demand for oil.

  • On Tuesday, President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia with early details indicating framework that includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday: Chicago posted small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw slight losses. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar — following speculation about Fed Chair Powell’s future — offered some support before President Trump denied any firing plans.

  • Midwest rains are expected over the next week, but drier conditions in the Southern Plains should allow the hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvest to pick up pace.

  • Algeria reportedly purchased 1 MMT of wheat at $256/MT CNF, $12 above their previous buy. Most of the wheat is expected to come from the Black Sea, with some potentially from the Baltic region.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.6 mmt to 83.6 mmt. This comes just a day after IKAR decreased their estimate by 0.5 mmt to 84 mmt. This has both groups inching closer to the USDA’s forecast of 83.5 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon has said that Russia’s wheat harvest is going slowly, with them having collected 11 mmt through July 11; this is down 56% from the 24.8 mmt harvested at this time last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

|

7-15 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Finds Support, Soybeans Slide, Wheat Faces Supply Headwinds

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted modest gains Tuesday, but December failed to break above the $4.20 level or the 10-day moving average, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, with front-month contracts leading the decline. Crop conditions improved, with 70% of the crop rated good-to-excellent — up 4 points from last week and 2 points above last year.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed Tuesday — Minneapolis and Kansas City posted slight gains while Chicago slipped — amid lingering bearish pressure from last week’s WASDE, which pegged 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks at a six-year high.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted modest gains Tuesday, but December failed to break above the $4.20 level or the 10-day moving average, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling.

  • Crop conditions held steady at 74% good-to-excellent — matching expectations and marking the second-best rating in the past decade for this time of year (trailing only 2016 at 76% G/E).

  • The strong ratings improve the chances for a possible higher than trendline yield. In 2016, final corn yield was 3.9% higher than trend line yield after peaking at 4.6% over trend line on the September 2016 WASDE report. Participants in the corn market are likely pricing in a 3-4% possible over trend yield, which would significantly increase the carryout for the 2025-26 marketing year. Weather will be a big factor in determining the final yield.

  • The U.S. dollar has rallied nine straight sessions, raising concerns over export competitiveness.

  • Brazilian corn harvest pace continues to expand but is well behind historical pace. Ag analyst firm, AgRural estimates that Brazil second crop corn harvest is 40% complete as of last Thursday. This is 12% higher than last week, but well behind the 74% completed from last year in this time window.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      •  There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the front months once again posting the brunt of the losses. November futures posted an inside day lower with the high at $10.10 and the low at $10.00. Crop progress results were bearish as good weather supports development. Soybean meal was lower while bean oil was higher.

  • NOPA’s June crush came in at 185.71 million bushels — above expectations and the highest June total on record. Though down 3.7% from May, it was up 5.8% year-over-year.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean crop ratings improve 4 points from last week to 70% good to excellent. This was also 2 points higher than last year at this time. 47% of the crop is blooming and 15% is setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the poor side at 147k tons which compared to 400k the previous week and 175k tons a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Egypt, and Japan.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed Tuesday — Minneapolis and Kansas City posted slight gains while Chicago slipped — amid lingering bearish pressure from last week’s WASDE, which pegged 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks at a six-year high.

  • Spring wheat conditions improved more than expected, with 54% rated good-to-excellent, up 4 points from last week. Winter wheat harvest reached 63% complete, slightly behind average.

  • CONAB has reported Brazilian wheat has been planted on 79.5% of the projected area as of July 5. Additionally, they are estimating that the crop will reach 7.81 mmt, down 4.6% from the June estimate. Planted area is expected to decline 16.5% to 2.55 million hectares, though productivity is anticipated to increased 18.7% to 3.06 tons per hectare.

  • IKAR has lowered their wheat production forecast for Russia by 0.5 mmt to 84 mmt and also reduced their export estimate by .05 mmt to 42 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using at 83.5 mmt production figure, and 46 mmt for exports.

  • On a bearish note, the French farm ministry has estimated their nation’s 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 mmt. If accurate, this would be a 27% jump over last year’s harvest due to an estimated 19% increase in yields. However, this would be only 2.4% above average, as last year’s wheat crop struggled with excess rain.

  • Morocco is set to import its first U.S. wheat shipment this month (100,000 MT), with total purchases possibly reaching 600,000 MT for the season — roughly 6% of its grain imports.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 675 was adjusted to 681.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 693 was adjusted lower to 688.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop.

  • Plan A:

    • Make your first sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now one sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • A downside sales stop of 639 has been added to the Plan B strategy.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-14 End of Day: Corn Bucks Grain Trend, Closes Higher to Start Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: After setting new lows in Sunday night trade, corn futures staged a strong reversal Monday, closing above Friday’s high in an encouraging technical rebound.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Monday, led by front-month weakness amid bear spreading and pressure from a wet weather outlook.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes Monday, pressured by last week’s higher-than-expected spring wheat production estimate, which offset reductions to winter wheat.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • After setting new lows in Sunday night trade, corn futures staged a strong reversal Monday, closing above Friday’s high in an encouraging technical rebound.

  • Friday’s report pegged old crop corn carryout at 1.340 billion bushels — the lowest in four years if realized. That stands in sharp contrast to prices, which are among the lowest seen in the past five years.

  • USDA raised Brazil’s 2025 corn production estimate by 2 MMT to 132 MMT, aligning with Conab’s update the day prior. This bumped up global corn stocks (excluding China), though overall inventories remain near 12-year lows, keeping the global supply picture historically tight.

  • Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced a 30% tariff on both the EU and Mexico starting August 1. The news is particularly significant for corn, as Mexico is the top U.S. buyer. The move adds fresh uncertainty to a market already weighed down by strong crop prospects and multi-year low prices.

  • Short-term weather remains favorable as pollination advances, with weekly crop progress expected to show steady conditions and development tracking close to the five-year average.

Corn Futures Break to New Lows
Front-month corn futures struggled through June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap near 430 after the roll to September — now the first upside target. On the downside, stronger support emerges at 394.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,602 contracts between July 1- July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 203,861 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      •  There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in bear spreading action with the bulk of losses in the front months. Overnight, November soybeans fell to $9.98-1/4 but recovered throughout the day. Prospects of continued wet weather have pressured the market. Soybean meal was lower but soybean oil higher to end the day.

  • Biofuel policy support continues to provide a bullish backdrop, with USDA projecting a 5% increase in 2025/26 soybean crush, driven by rising demand for renewable fuels. This is expected to support soybean oil prices, though meal values may remain under pressure due to rising supply.

  • Highlights from Friday’s WASDE report saw predictions for the 25/26 soybean crop decreased slightly from last month’s guess. Ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 350 mb and ending stocks for 25/26 were called higher at 310 mb vs 295 mb last month. Yields were unchanged, new crop bean exports were lowered, but soybean crush was increased to 2.54 from 2.49

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,641 contracts which left them with a net short position of 6,216 contracts. They sold 1,670 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 37,741 contracts and bought 459 contracts of meal leaving them short 131,479 contracts.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,641 contracts between July 1 – July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 6,216 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes Monday, pressured by last week’s higher-than-expected spring wheat production estimate, which offset reductions to winter wheat. The spring wheat yield forecast of 51.7 bpa would be the second highest on record if realized.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 16.2 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 83.9 mb, down 3% from last year and lagging the pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb export projection.

  • Russian export activity continues to rise, with IKAR reporting wheat values up $4 to $229/mt last week, and SovEcon estimating weekly exports at 160,000 mt, up 60,000 mt from the prior week. Meanwhile, former President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Russian goods if no peace deal is reached within 50 days.

  • Weather remains a concern globally, with persistent drought in key wheat areas of Australia, and parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada seeing limited moisture. Both regions face yield risks as their crops approach reproductive stages.

  • In the EU, grain production is forecast up 6.9% year over year, according to Copa-Cogeca, with total output seen at 275.2 mmt. While wheat production is expected to rise, durum wheat is projected to fall 32% from last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 675 was adjusted to 681.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,477 contracts between July 1 – July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 55,594 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 693 was adjusted lower to 688.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 871 contracts between July 1– July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 43,319 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop.

  • Plan A:

    • Make your first sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now one sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • A downside sales stop of 639 has been added to the Plan B strategy.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,426 contracts between July 1 – July 8, bringing their total position to a net long 2,287 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

7-11 End of Day: WASDE Report Provides Little Support as Grains End Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower Friday, capping a losing week as traders shrugged off mildly supportive USDA data and stayed focused on favorable U.S. weather, which could lift future yield estimates.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower Friday, as traders largely ignored a neutral-to-slightly-bearish WASDE report and turned focus back to favorable U.S. weather. Soybean meal closed lower, while bean oil gained.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all classes Friday, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar, higher global production estimates, and better-than-expected U.S. spring wheat output.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed lower on Friday, wrapping up the week with losses following the release of the highly anticipated USDA WASDE report. Despite the report offering somewhat supportive figures, the market failed to gain traction. Traders remained focused on favorable weather conditions across key growing regions, which could lead to increased production estimates in future reports.

  • The July WASDE trimmed 2024/25 U.S. corn ending stocks by 25 mb to 1.340 bb, with exports raised 100 mb and feed usage cut 75 mb. Production was revised to 15.705 bb, down 115 mb due to lower harvested acreage; yield held at 181.0 bpa.

  • On the global front, the July WASDE report raised Brazil’s 2024/25 corn production estimate by 2 million metric tons to 132 MMT—on the low end of trade expectations. Meanwhile, projected 2025/26 global ending stocks were pegged at 272 MMT, down 3.2 MMT from the previous estimate and notably below market expectations.

  • Weather continues to play a critical role in shaping corn market sentiment. In South America, harvest progress moves steadily forward, with Brazil 40% complete and Argentina at 70.4%. In the U.S., attention remains focused on weather developments as parts of the Corn Belt face ongoing drought stress. Currently, 12% of the U.S. corn crop is experiencing drought conditions—up from 7% at the same time last year.

Corn Futures Break to New Lows
Front-month corn futures struggled through June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap near 430 after the roll to September—now the first upside target. On the downside, stronger support emerges at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      •  There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a neutral to slightly bearish WASDE report. Traders likely shrugged off today’s numbers to focus on weather instead which is expected to continue being beneficial for the crop. Next month’s report will likely hold more changes. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while bean oil was higher.

  • This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 219,900 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 25/26 marketing year. Yesterday’s export sales were decent as well but have been overshadowed by weather trade.

  • Highlights from today’s WASDE report saw predictions for the 25/26 soybean crop decreased slightly from last month’s guess. Ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 350 mb and ending stocks for 25/26 were called higher at 310 mb vs 295 mb last month. Yields were unchanged, new crop bean exports were lowered, but soybean crush was increased to 2.54 from 2.49.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 51-1/2 cents to $10.04-1/4 and November lost 42 cents to $10.07-1/4. August soybean meal lost $7.10 to $270.30 while August soybean oil lost 0.80 cents to 53.75 cents.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all classes Friday, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar, higher global production estimates, and better-than-expected U.S. spring wheat output.

  • The July WASDE pegged all U.S. wheat production at 1.929 bb, up 8 mb from June and above expectations. Yields were raised to 54.2 bpa. U.S. exports for 2025/26 were also increased by 25 mb.

  • U.S. 2024/25 ending stocks rose 10 mb to 851 mb, while 2025/26 stocks were trimmed 8 mb to 890 mb. Globally, 2024/25 stocks were lowered 0.4 MMT to 263.6 MMT, and 2025/26 fell 1.3 MMT to 261.5 MMT.

  • As for some of the world numbers, the USDA estimated EU wheat production up 0.7 mmt to 137.25 mmt and Russian production increased 0.5 mmt to 83.5 mmt. However, they kept Chinese production steady at 142 mmt.

  • The 25/26 wheat crop in Argentina is said to have gotten a boost in condition from recent rainfall, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. An estimated 91% of the crop is planted, with the total projected sowing at 6.7 million hectares.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry has said that approximately 2.6 mmt of grain has been harvested so far. Of that total, wheat accounts for 1.2 mmt. However, for wheat this is down 78% when compared with the 8.4 mmt harvested at this time last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 675 was adjusted to 681.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 693 was adjusted lower to 688.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell the first portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.

  • Plan A:

    • Make your first sale today.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now one sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • A downside sales stop of 639 has been added to the Plan B strategy.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-10 End of Day: Traders Position Ahead of Friday’s USDA’s WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed Thursday’s session mixed, with some contracts edging higher. The market found modest support as traders positioned ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday, breaking a three-day losing streak. The market found support from today’s export sales report by the USDA, along with positioning ahead of Friday’s closely watched WASDE report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended Thursday’s trade on a positive note, with all three classes posting gains. The market found support from mounting concerns over worsening drought conditions in key U.S. wheat-growing regions, which continue to stress crop development and yield potential.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished Thursday’s session with mixed to mostly higher trade. Support came from short covering and a firm demand tone, bolstered by solid export sales reported by the USDA Thursday morning. The market remains in oversold territory, prompting some positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA July WASDE report.

  • The USDA is set to release its next WASDE and Crop Production report on Friday. While corn yield estimates are likely to remain unchanged until the August update, the trade is watching closely for revisions to planted acreage and old crop demand. Current export sales of old crop corn are running ahead of USDA projections for the marketing year, leading analysts to anticipate potential demand adjustments that could reduce old crop ending stocks and tighten new crop carryout expectations.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending July 3, U.S. exporters reported new sales of 1.262 MMT (49.7 MB) for the 2024-25 marketing year and 888,600 MT (35.0 MB) for the 2025-26 marketing year. These totals were above analyst expectations for both years. With today’s reported sales, old crop total commitments are at 2.731 BB with the USDA target of 2.675 BB for the marketing year.

  • The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, raised the forecast for this year’s Brazil corn on their July report. CONAB expects this year’s corn crop to reach 131.97 MMT, up 3.721 MMT from June. The agency also raised Brazil corn exports by 2 MMT from their June estimates.

  • On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil imports to go into effect on August 1. The announcement pushed the Brazilian real currency to its lowest levels since the first of June versus the U.S. dollar. The break in currency value reduces the cost on Brazil grain products on the export market.

Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking a 3-day losing streak which has seen August futures lose 43 cents for the week so far. Traders may have been covering short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, and export sales were within expectations. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s USDA update estimate old crop soybean ending stocks at 358 mb which would be up from June’s 350 mb, and new crop 2025/26 stocks at 302 mb which would compare to 295 mb in June.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase in soybean sales of 18.5 million bushels, which was up 9% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 14.5 mb were above the 14.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • While prices recovered slightly today, soybean meal prices have pushed lower as the increase in crush demand for oil has produced an excess supply of soybean meal on the global market.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in the green across all three classes, boosted by sharply higher Paris milling wheat futures, worsening drought conditions in U.S. wheat areas, and expectations for lower U.S. production on tomorrow’s WASDE report. There may have also been a short covering technical bounce with futures having recently become oversold.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 16.4 mb, which was above the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA 25/26 export goal of 825 mb. Export commitments for 25/26 have reached 285 mb, which is up 9% from last year.

  • The average pre-report estimate for 25/26 all wheat production is pegged at 1.903 bb, down from 1.921 in June and 1.971 last year. U.S. 24/25 wheat ending stocks are expected to rise from 841 mb to 848, while 25/26 is expected to decline from 898 mb to 893. Global 24/25 wheat carryout is anticipated to come in 0.3 mmt higher than last month at 264.3 mmt, and for 25/26 is expected to rise 1.9 mmt to 264.7 mmt.

  • CONAB has reduced their estimate of Brazilian wheat production by 0.4 mmt to 7.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a production figure of 8 mmt. Meanwhile, China is also reported to have lowered their wheat production forecast by 0.1% to 138.16 mmt. The USDA’s projection is sitting at 142 mmt, though this could be adjusted on tomorrow’s report.

  • According to the USDA, as of July 8, an estimated 26% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is up 2% from last week. During the same period, spring wheat increased 6% to 35% of the area in drought. This is well above the July 9, 2024 reading of just 7%.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 crop will drop off the report tomorrow.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.