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6-3 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Turn Higher Tuesday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn snapped a five-day losing streak Tuesday as nearing planting completion and weaker-than-expected early crop ratings triggered short covering and modest gains.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rebounded sharply, erasing nearly all of Monday’s losses. Support came from firmer soybean oil — lifted by rising crude prices — and renewed optimism over potential trade deals.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better U.S. crop ratings and a firmer U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as prices found some footing for the session. Planting progress is nearing completion, but softer historical crop ratings may have supported the new crop market as light buying strength triggered some short covering. The key will be follow-through strength for the rest of the week.

  • As of June 1, corn planting reached 93% complete — on par with the 5-year average. Delays persist in Ohio and Kentucky due to continued wet conditions, with roughly 7.1 million acres still unplanted.

  • Corn crop conditions improved slightly over last week. USDA pegged the percent good/excellent at 69% as of June 1, up 1% over last week.  Corn condition ratings are down from 75% G/E from last year. Cool temperatures have been one of the biggest factors limiting the early stages of the corn crop.

  • April corn used for ethanol totaled 425.8 mb, down from March’s 452.9 mb. While ethanol demand remains firm, regulatory uncertainty and growing stocks could weigh on usage going forward.

  • Long range forecast going into the middle of June remains supportive of good crop development, as the corn market is looking for a bullish story to trigger a potential short covering rally. Currently the weather is a limiting factor to corn prices.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop today. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support yesterday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop today.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Yesterday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support (HIT 6/2).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target Cancelled: The Plan A upside sales target at 1114 has been cancelled following Monday’s break of 1018.50 support.

      • Heads Up: A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming on Thursday of this week, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and took back nearly all of yesterday’s losses thanks to gains in soybean oil along with positive sentiment that trade deals with a number of countries are in the works and should lead to improved demand. Soybean meal was mixed with gains in the front months and losses in deferred months while soybean oil led the complex higher following crude oil.

  • USDA rated 67% of the crop good to excellent — slightly below expectations. Planting reached 84% vs. 77% last year, with 63% emerged.

  • U.S.–China tensions remain in focus as Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to speak this week. With South America dominating recent Chinese purchases, a fall trade window hinges on resolution.

  • April soybean crush hit a record 202.4 mb, up 14% from last year. Year-to-date crush is running 6% above 2023.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading both sides of neutral, wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by better crop ratings, a firming of the U.S. Dollar, and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. In addition, the extended forecast has the potential for rains in some of the dry areas of China and the Black Sea.

  • USDA reported winter wheat at 52% good/excellent (+2%) with 83% headed and 3% harvested — both in line with average. Spring wheat is 95% planted and 50% G/E (+5%).

  • Widespread rains (1–3”) are forecast across the Midwest this week, with heavier totals in the southern U.S., which may delay harvest and impact quality.

  • Moroccan wheat imports between June 1, 2024, and the end of May 2025 totaled 6.05 mmt. This is up 9.4% from the previous 5.53 mmt in the previous 12 months. Soft wheat imports accounted for the majority of that total at 4.97 mmt, while durum made up the remainder at 1.08 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple)

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-2 End of Day: Wheat Futures Climb While Corn and Soybeans Continue Decline

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower Monday, with favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt continuing to weigh on prices. December futures closed in the red for the seventh straight session, as traders remain reluctant to add risk premium without a clear weather threat.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Monday, pressured by uncertainty surrounding upcoming trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended lower Monday as favorable weather remains the dominant market driver. Despite solid demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, July corn closed at its lowest level since October 22, fading from early session highs.

  • USDA export inspections for the week ending May 29 came in at 1.576 MMT (62 mb), topping expectations and up 29% from a year ago, reinforcing strong demand.

  • Weather forecasts continue to pressure prices, with cool temperatures and widespread rains expected across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. As a result, the market holds little weather premium, keeping sellers in control.

  • Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be closely watched. While planting progress in wetter areas remains in focus, traders may shift their attention to condition ratings. Last week’s 68% good-to-excellent rating was a surprise miss, but improved weather could support crop development going forward.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,450 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 100,760 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, today’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming on Wednesday or Thursday of this week, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were lower to end the day with pressure coming from concerns about a trade deal being negotiated between President Trump and China’s Xi. Pressure also came from lower closes in both soybean meal and oil despite gains in crude oil.

  • With Chinese trade concerns mounting, President Trump and Xi are set to speak this week to work out disagreements had at last month’s meeting in Geneva. South America has been the primary supplier of soybeans to China, but the export window for the US will be coming up this fall, and having a trade agreement in place will be crucial.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 24,043 contracts which left them with a net long position of 36,697 contracts. They sold 3,321 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 53,988 contracts and bought back 13,681 contracts of meal which left them near record short at 93,785 contracts.

  • Ahead of the USDA’s upcoming report, analysts expect April soybean crush to total 202 million bushels, up 13.8% from 177.6 mb last year. Corn used for ethanol is also projected to be higher year-over-year.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 24,043 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net long 36,697 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three U.S. exchanges Monday, supported by a combination of adverse global weather, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed geopolitical risk. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions — including China, southern Russia, Canada, and northern Europe — continues to underpin prices. In the U.S., excessive rains are raising concerns over potential harvest delays and crop quality issues in the Southern Plains.

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 20.3 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 802 mb, up 16% from last year. The USDA is estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 820 mb, up 17% from the year prior.

  • Geopolitical tensions flared again over the weekend, with Ukraine launching drone strikes deep inside Russian territory. Reports suggest four military bases and over 40 Russian bombers were damaged, reintroducing a war premium into the market and casting doubt on the progress of upcoming peace talks.

  • The Australian agriculture ministry is estimating their nation’s 2025 wheat harvest will total 30.6 mmt. If that prediction is accurate, it will be a 10% decline from last year. For reference, the USDA is estimating Australian wheat production at 31 mmt.

  • Russian wheat export prices held steady at $225/MT, according to IKAR, which also forecast June exports at 1.2 MMT — down from 2.1 MMT in May. Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture ministry slashed its wheat export tax by 25% to 1,023 rubles per metric ton.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,667 contracts between May 20– May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 101,226 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 801 contracts between May 20– May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 79,361 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop today. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,622 contracts between May 20 – May 27, bringing their total position to a net short 30,518 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-30 End of Day: Grain Markets Cool as Weather Improves, Trade Tensions Rise

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower for a third straight session, down 15¼ cents on the week. A favorable weather outlook and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions weighed on prices, overshadowing fresh export activity.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended the day in the red, with July closing below all major moving averages for the first time since early April. Prices settled at the bottom of their recent range as beneficial weather and weaker soybean oil added pressure.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished mixed on Friday. Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City notched modest gains, and Minneapolis led to the upside for a third straight session, buoyed by poor spring wheat crop ratings and technical momentum.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With the 474 target failing to hit this week, be prepared for a sales recommendation next week. Sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week lower, falling for a third straight session and shedding 15¼ cents overall. A softer demand tone, large expectations for Brazil corn crop, and trade concerns between the U.S. and China pressured the market.

  • President Trump reignited trade concerns Thursday with comments accusing China of violating a recent agreement, suggesting potential sanctions, though no details were provided. The uncertainty pressured markets late in the session.

  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 22, USDA reported new sales of 916,000 MT (36.1 mb). This was within, but towards the low end of expectations and down 23% from last week. Japan was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. Corn sales commitments now total 2.527 BB for the 2024-25 marketing year and are up 28% from last year. The USDA export target for the marketing year is 2.600 BB.

  • USDA also confirmed a flash sale of 210,560 MT (8.3 mb) of corn to unknown destinations — the third consecutive daily export announcement.

  • The total corn production out of Brazil is larger than expected and could be pushing 140 MMT. The USDA forecast is for 130 MMT. Safras, a Brazilian Agriculture Analyst firm, raised their forecast 139 MMT today, with a nearly 4MMT bump in the second crop corn due to strong yield and favorable weather in the growing season.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Mid-to-late next week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower at the bottom of their recent trading range with the July contract closing below all major moving averages for the first time since the beginning of April. Beneficial weather has pressured grains, but today, a sharp decline in soybean oil brought the soy complex lower. Soybean oil closed over 3% lower while meal was unchanged to lower.

  • Today’s export sales were on the poor side for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 5.4 million bushels of sales in 24/25 and an increase of 1.2 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Indonesia, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • In South America, estimates for Brazilian soybean production are beginning to rise with the highest estimates near 182.5 mmt, which would be significantly higher than the USDA’s most recent estimate of 169 mmt. In addition, Brazilian soybean exports for May are expected to be higher than expected at 15.0 mmt.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 18-1/2 cents while November soybeans posted larger losses at 23 cents. July soybean meal was nearly unchanged at 0.1 higher to $296.30. July soybean oil lost 2.46 cents at 46.89 cents.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Friday: Chicago slipped slightly, Kansas City posted small gains, and Minneapolis led again, though the July contract stalled at its 200-day moving average (626 ¾). Delayed harvests and 2–4 inches of forecasted rain in the Southern Plains helped support HRW prices. Technically, all three classes are forming the right shoulder of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern — a potential bullish signal.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 4.7 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, but an increase of 26.1 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb fell under the 34.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their 24/25 export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 wheat shipments have reached 748 mb, up 13% from last year.

  • SovEcon recently increased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 1.1 mmt to 40.8 mmt. However, the Russian deputy ag minister is projecting their 2025 wheat exports much higher, at 44.5 mmt. The minister is also estimating their total 2025 grain exports at 53 mmt.

  • Dry conditions persist in key Chinese wheat regions, prompting efforts to induce rainfall via cloud seeding using drones and artillery. Reports suggest rainfall could increase 4% over 8,000 sq km.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, dry weather in western and northern Argentina has allowed wheat planting to get off to a good start. The exchange is expecting a total planted area of 6.7 million hectares, with 10.5% of it now complete. Planting in eastern growing regions, however, may see delays due to recent heavy rainfall, which has also hindered corn and soybean harvest.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Expect the first sales targets to post next week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-29 End of Day: Mixed Grains: Wheat Leads, Corn Extends Losses, Soybeans Split

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fell for a second straight session Thursday, led by July contracts, though prices pared losses after bouncing off session lows on support from fresh export sales.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended mixed Thursday, with new crop contracts edging higher, while old crop contracts slipped slightly after a volatile session that saw July fall below key moving averages amid improving weather forecasts.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes ended higher on Thursday, led by Minneapolis futures, which posted double-digit gains for a second session.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended losses for a second session Thursday, with July leading the decline. Prices bounced off session lows, supported by fresh export sales and strength in other grain markets.

  • Trading volume was the lightest of the week, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. July corn is down 12 ½ cents so far this week heading into Friday.

  • USDA announced two flash sales Thursday: 104,000 MT to Mexico and 101,096 MT to Unknown for 2024-25 delivery. Weekly export sales for the week ending May 22 will be released on Friday.

  • Weekly ethanol production climbed higher again this week up to 310.5 mil. gallons, up from 305 mil. the previous week. This total was down 1% from last year. A total of 105 mb of corn was used in production last week but has slipped behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.

  • Weather will stay as the driver in the corn market in the near-term as forecasts moving into early June look friendly for crop development.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the new crop contracts finishing higher while new crop was slightly lower. This came after a day of volatile trade, which saw July soybeans fall below the major moving averages to as much as 8 cents lower as weather forecasts improve. Soybean meal was higher while bean oil ended the day lower.

  • A U.S. trade court ruling late Wednesday deemed former President Trump’s China tariffs unlawful, raising speculation that soybean-related tariffs could be lifted—potentially boosting U.S. export prospects this fall, despite China’s current reliance on Brazilian supplies.

  • At this time, funds are estimated to hold a net long position in soybeans of around 10,000 contracts and are estimated to have a long position in soybean oil around 59,000 contracts. In soybean meal, however, they hold a net short position of over 100,000 contracts, which is a record short position and could trigger short covering at some point.

  • In Argentina, the recent rains and severe flooding near Buenos Aires will likely impact the country’s total production. One prominent South American crop scout has lowered their estimate by 1.6 mmt for total production of 48.5 mmt. In Brazil, soybean production is estimated near 170 mmt.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes ended higher Thursday, led by Minneapolis futures, which posted double-digit gains for a second session. Support came from the spring wheat crop’s lower-than-expected 45% good/excellent rating, a bearish reversal in the U.S. Dollar Index, and strength in Paris milling wheat (Matif), which also saw a bullish reversal and positive close.

  • USDA data as of May 27 shows 16% of U.S. winter wheat acreage remains under drought conditions—down 5% from last week—likely reflecting recent rainfall in Kansas. However, spring wheat areas in drought held steady at 29%, a sharp contrast to just 3% a year ago, helping to fuel strength in Minneapolis prices.

  • According to the USDA, as of May 27, an estimated 16% of US winter wheat acreage is experiencing drought conditions. This is down 5% from last week and may largely be attributed to recent rains in Kansas. Spring wheat production areas in drought held steady, however, at 29% during the same timeframe. This is far above the 3% reading from a year ago, which may help to explain the boost today in Minneapolis prices. The European Commission has revised their estimate of EU 25/26 grain production from 280.3 mmt to 279.6 mmt. However, this was largely due to decreases in their corn estimate. In fact, their soft wheat harvest projection was raised by 0.3 mmt to 126.6 mmt.

  • LSEG cut its forecast for Canadian wheat output to 35.3 MMT, down 3% from its previous estimate, citing persistent dryness across the southern Prairies, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. For comparison, USDA’s latest estimate stands slightly higher at 36 MMT.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-28 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed as Corn and Soybeans Retreat, Wheat Diverges on Crop Conditions

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures fell sharply Tuesday as strong planting progress, early harvest reports from Brazil, and concerns about weakening U.S. export demand pressured the market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, with July closing just below the 100-day moving average for the first time this month, as rapid U.S. planting progress, weaker soy product prices, and limited fresh news pressured the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed after choppy trade, with Minneapolis leading to the upside following weaker-than-expected spring wheat condition ratings. In contrast, HRW wheat came under pressure as recent rains and warming temperatures are expected to benefit the crop.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures faced sharp selling pressure on Tuesday, with weakness in the July contract spilling over into the broader complex. The market was weighed down by strong planting progress, early harvest reports from Brazil, and growing concerns about waning U.S. export demand.

  • Brazil has just begun its harvest of their second crop corn. The weather has been very good for most regions, and the market is anticipating a strong crop. USDA is currently projecting this crop at 130 MMT, but there are “whisper” numbers up to 140 MMT.

  • Brazilian corn prices have fallen, making them competitive with U.S. exports. Reports suggest that some Asian buyers secured Brazilian supplies this week, raising the risk of U.S. export sales cancellations as demand shifts south.

  • U.S. planting is nearing completion, with the USDA reporting 87% of corn acres planted as of May 25, up 5 percentage points from last week. While national progress is on track, states like Illinois and others in the Eastern Corn Belt remain behind average, largely due to excessive rainfall. Final planting dates in these regions are fast approaching in early June.

  • USDA released the first initial corn crop ratings in Tuesday’s report. As of May 25, the USDA found that 68% of the crop was good/excellent. This was 5% below analysts’ expectations. These ratings were the third lowest in the past 10 years and 4% behind the 3-year average. Wet and cool temperatures limit a strong start in some areas and capped the first crop ratings.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the July contract closing just below the 100-day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the month. There has been little fresh news, but the continued quick planting pace and lower soy products were the primary pressure today.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the soybean crop 76% planted, which compared to 66% last week and the 5-year average of 68%. 50% of the crop has emerged, and good to excellent ratings will likely come within a few weeks.

  • In Argentina, the recent rains and severe flooding near Buenos Aires will likely impact the country’s total production. One prominent South American crop scout has lowered their estimate by 1.6 mmt for total production of 48.5 mmt. In Brazil, soybean production is estimated near 170 mmt.

  • At this time, funds are estimated to hold a net long position in soybeans of around 10,000 contracts and are estimated to have a long position in soybean oil around 59,000 contracts. In soybean meal, however, they hold a net short position of over 100,000 contracts, which is a record short position and could trigger short covering at some point.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed after choppy trade, with Minneapolis leading to the upside following weaker-than-expected spring wheat condition ratings. In contrast, HRW wheat came under pressure as recent rains and warming temperatures are expected to benefit the crop. Technically, both Chicago and Kansas City contracts have lost momentum, with daily stochastics and RSI indicators turning lower, while Minneapolis futures trend sideways to higher.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat conditions declining 2 points to 50% good/excellent, while 75% of the crop is headed—above the 70% five-year average. Spring wheat planting reached 87% (vs. 80% avg.), and 60% of the crop has emerged. However, only 45% was rated good/excellent, missing expectations and supporting Minneapolis’ futures.

  • India’s wheat harvest is reportedly going well and is now expected to be about 4 mmt above last year’s crop. This could push their state reserves to 44 mmt this year, well above what is needed to meet domestic demand. This has effectively eliminated earlier anticipation that they might need to import wheat this year, which is now likely to pressure global prices. Despite this, however, the Indian government still has no plan to allow wheat exports, which were prohibited in 2022.

  • According to the German association of farm cooperatives, their nation’s 2025 wheat harvest is expected to total 21.01 mmt, which would be down 0.40 mmt from their previous estimate. However, if realized this would still be a 13.6% larger crop year over year. Yield reductions from late winter frosts and drought in the spring are cited as the reasons for the decline from the prior estimate.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

|

5-27 End of Day: Grains Mixed to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures began the week on the defensive, with pressure from favorable crop weather and weakness in wheat weighing on new-crop contracts. However, July corn found modest support from strong weekly export shipment totals, helping limit losses in front-month trade.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher on the day, outperforming the broader grain complex. While overall trade was quiet, early strength was fueled by gains in palm and soybean oil. Both soybean meal and oil also finished higher, despite funds maintaining a heavy net short in the meal market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures suffered double-digit losses across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis, pressured by improving weather in the U.S. and Europe, a stronger U.S. dollar, and competitive global pricing—particularly from Russia. Paris milling wheat also declined, adding weight to the U.S. market.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given this week. If it hasn’t been hit by Friday’s close, another sales recommendation may be made early next week based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week under pressure, with July contracts finding modest support from strong export shipments. However, weakness in the wheat market and expectations for improving crop conditions weighed on new-crop contracts.

  • USDA reported corn export inspections at 1.396 MMT (55 mb) for the week ending May 22, bringing total shipments for the marketing year to 1.850 billion bushels—up 29% from a year ago. Inspections remain ahead of pace to meet USDA’s projection for the second-largest corn export program in five years.

  • USDA will release weekly crop progress on Tuesday afternoon. The expectation for corn planting is to reach 87% planted, up 9% from last week. Areas in the southern to eastern corn belt will be closely watched for progress as those regions have been behind pace due to wetness.

  • The first condition rating for the 2025/26 corn crop is also due Tuesday, with analysts expecting a Good/Excellent rating around 73% (range: 64–78%). Cooler, wetter weather across parts of the Corn Belt may weigh on early crop development by limiting growing degree day accumulation.

  • Harvest of Brazil’s second corn crop has begun, with AgRural estimating progress at 0.9%, down from 2% at this time last year. Brazil’s crop agency, CONAB, projects the safrinha crop at nearly 100 MMT as of its May estimate.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,234 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 103,210 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher despite losses in the rest of the grain complex. Overall, soybeans traded quietly but had some early strength thanks to gains in both palm and soybean oil. Funds currently hold a record large net short position in soybean meal, but both meal and oil closed higher today.

  • Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in weak, totaling just 7.1 million bushels for the week ending May 22. Still, total inspections for the 2024/25 marketing year stand at 1.629 billion bushels—up 11% from last year.

  • Soybean acreage in India is reportedly set to shrink as farmers are looking to plant more corn and sugarcane due to higher returns. Lower oilseed output could force the world’s largest importer of edible oils to increase buying from other countries.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 25,753 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 12,654 contracts. They sold 10,123 contracts of bean oil and 4,721 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,753 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net long 12,654 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all three U.S. exchanges to start the week, pressured by both global and domestic developments. Paris milling wheat futures also closed 4–5 euros lower, dragging on U.S. prices. A firmer U.S. dollar added headwinds for U.S. wheat on the export market.

  • Weekend rains across the U.S. southern and western Plains, along with scattered showers in Europe, eased immediate crop concerns. Heavier rainfall is expected next week in drier regions of France, Germany, and the UK, which further pressured futures.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 20.6 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 782 mb, up 16% from last year. The inspections pace is steady with the USDA’s estimate – total 24/25 exports are projected at 820 mb, up 16% from the year prior.

  • China’s National Meteorological Center is predicting rainfall through the early part of next week for key wheat growing regions, including Henan and Shaanxi. This should help to ease drought conditions there. Henan province recently issued weather alerts due to excessive heat, which was a threat to their crops.

  • Australian customs data indicates that they exported only 546,000 mt of wheat to China during the October – March timeframe, due to a lack of Chinese demand. This compares with 2.9 mmt in the first half of the 23/24 season and 4.4 mmt for the same period of the 22/23 season. This could significantly increase Australia’s wheat stocks, with some estimates as high as 8 mmt. For reference, the five-year average for their end of season wheat stocks is 3.3 mmt.

  • According to SovEcon, Russian spot wheat export values range from $248-$250 per mt FOB. And as reported by IKAR, Russian export values July onward are around $225 per mt FOB, which is down $2 from last week. Competition from Russia has been weighing on wheat prices globally. Furthermore, Interfax has stated that the 2025 Russian grain harvest is likely to exceed last year’s, which would also be bearish to prices.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 18,002 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 108,893 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 637 contracts between May 13– May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 80,162 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, May 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,621 contracts between May 13 – May 20, bringing their total position to a net short 34,140 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

5-23 End of Day: Grains Hold Weekly Gains Amid Trade Tensions and Weather Watch

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 26, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week on a softer note but still managed to post their first weekly gain in six weeks.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Friday, pressured alongside the broader grain complex after former President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against the EU rattled markets.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week mixed, holding relatively firm amid broader grain market pressure.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • With July corn continuing to hold support at 440, the strategy remains to hold out for potential upside volatility opportunities.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No adjustments needed at the moment. Positioned well for growing season volatility, with a good base of sales in place and both upside and downside targets active to begin legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The 474 target will be given another week or two. If it hasn’t been hit by then, another sales recommendation may be made based on the calendar and timing considerations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week on a softer note, weighed down by renewed trade tensions with the European Union and end-of-week profit-taking. Despite Friday’s pullback, July corn still closed 16 cents higher on the week—its first weekly gain after five straight weeks of losses.

  • The corn market had to fight off early session selling pressure on Friday as President Trump made comments about the disappointing pace of trade negotiations with the European Union. The administration is planning a 50% tariff on the EU starting on June 1. The headline pressured the entire market complex to start the day.

  • June corn options expired Friday, contributing to intraday volatility. Markets often gravitate toward areas of heavy open interest during expiration, and this month’s concentration around the $4.55–$4.60 strikes added technical pressure.

  • Looking ahead, early June weather is set to take center stage. The National Weather Service’s 8–14-day outlook shows a hot and dry pattern across much of the Corn Belt. If this trend continues, concerns over early-season dryness could support prices heading into the summer.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Still content with the 1107 target as long as 1036 support holds. If that support level is broken, the current strategy will need to be revisited and potentially adjusted.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • In about a week, another tranche of January put options may be recommended based on the calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Approaching the seasonal window where first sales targets could post at any time.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed lower Friday, pressured alongside the broader grain complex after former President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against the EU rattled markets. Despite the pullback, soybeans still notched weekly gains. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil finished higher amid continued volatility.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its weekly crop report which did not have an updated production number, it was kept at 50 mmt despite the recent flooding, but the bean crop is now said to be 74.3% harvested.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 10-1/4 cents while November soybeans gained 15 cents. July soybean meal gained $4.30 on the week to end at $296.20, and July soybean oil gained 0.42 cents at 49.35 cents. Trade in soybean oil has been volatile due to rumors floating back and forth about potential biodiesel blending obligations.

  • Managed Money remains net short in soybeans, with hedge funds holding a 38,000-contract short as of last week’s CFTC report. While this week’s strength likely trimmed that position, a shift to net long will likely require a larger bullish catalyst. Global supply burdens and persistent demand concerns continue to cap upside potential into the summer.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures had another mixed close, posting small losses in Chicago and Kansas City, but modest gains in Minneapolis. Relative to corn and soybeans, the wheat close appears strong. With little other fresh news to drive the market, talk that President Trump may enact 50% tariffs on the EU beginning June 1 weighed on both equity and grain markets today.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina is only 3.4% complete. This compares with 13% at this time last year, and a five-year average pace of 7%. Recent heavy rains and flooding have been the cause of slow soybean and corn harvests, in addition to the slow wheat sowing pace.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina’s wheat crop could exceed 21 mmt. If realized, this would be the second largest crop on record. For reference, the USDA is estimating the Argentine crop at 20 mmt, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is projecting a 20.5 mmt crop.

  • In the U.S., drought conditions continue to ease. Just 21% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, down 2% from last week, while spring wheat drought coverage dropped sharply from 38% to 29%.

  • On a bearish note, the International Grains Council has increased their estimate of global 25/26 grain stockpiles by 5 mmt from last month, to 585 mmt. This is in part due to an increased wheat stockpile estimate, going from 260 mmt in April to 262 mmt this month.

  • Since their export season began on July 1, Ukrainian grain exports have now reached 37.6 mmt according to their agriculture ministry. For the same time period, this is a reduction of about 17% year over year. Of the total, wheat exports account for 14.6 mmt, which is down 14% year over year.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • While 699.25 is still a long way off, it’s tough to justify adjusting it lower at this point — historically, when volatility shows up this time of year, it can be significant.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after June 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

    • Note: KC options are being used due to the strong correlation between KC and Minneapolis futures prices, as well as the greater liquidity found in the KC options market.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Courtesy of ag-wx.com

|

5-22 End of Day: Grains Mixed as Soybeans Extend Rally, Corn Steady, Wheat Eases

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, May 26, in Observance of Memorial Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures saw quiet trade on Thursday. July contracts posted modest gains, buoyed by solid export sales, while deferred contracts faced light profit-taking.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: The July soybean contract closed higher again Thursday, extending its winning streak to four days.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed Thursday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting losses, while Kansas City managed a marginal gain in the deferred months.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw quiet trade on Thursday. July contracts posted modest gains, buoyed by solid export sales, while deferred contracts faced light profit-taking. As of Thursday’s close, December corn futures are up 17 ¾ cents for the week heading into Friday’s session and the Memorial Day weekend.

  • With the recent strong price move, the corn market had entered technically overbought territory. Some short-term correction and position-squaring emerged as traders looked to reduce risk ahead of the three-day weekend.

  • USDA’s weekly export report showed new corn sales of 1.190 MMT (46.9 mb) for 2023-24 and 218,400 MT (8.6 mb) for 2024-25 — within trade expectations and supportive for nearby contracts. Japan was the top buyer for the week.

  • Total U.S. corn export commitments now stand at 2.491 billion bushels, up 28% from last year and just 109 mb shy of the USDA’s full-year projection of 2.6 bb. With the marketing year ending August 30, upward revisions to the USDA’s export forecast and lower ending stocks are becoming more likely.

  • Despite recent rains, roughly 22% of corn-growing areas remain under drought conditions. NOAAs extended 8–14-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt — conditions that may support prices if dryness persists into June.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The July soybean contract closed higher again Thursday, extending its winning streak to four days. Prices have consistently held support between $10.45 and $10.50, anchored by the 100-day moving average. A drier 30-day forecast across key U.S. growing regions continues to fuel concerns of a hot, dry summer — adding a weather premium to the market.

  • Soybean meal ended the day higher, but soybean oil was once again dragged lower by potentially bearish biofuel rumors. Soybean oil gapped down overnight after a rumor circulated that the White House could soon grant a large backlog of Small Refinery Exemptions which would decrease blending and bean oil demand.

  • Today’s export sales were within expectations for soybeans with an increase of 11.3 million bushels reported for 24/25 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 9.2 mb were below the 12.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations.

  • The Brazilian soybean market saw its cash market premiums rise with strong buying activity by China. China is estimated to have bought 100 cargoes of soybeans in the month of May with the majority coming from Brazil, including purchase into new crop Brazil soybeans for next spring. The strong Chinese demand has lifted global soybean prices, helping support the global price of soybeans.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed Thursday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting losses, while Kansas City managed a marginal gain. A lower Euro failed to support Paris (Matif) wheat, which closed broadly lower — adding pressure to U.S. futures alongside a firmer U.S. dollar. Additionally, profit-taking after recent gains and uncompetitive U.S. Gulf wheat offers — reportedly $10/mt above Russian FOB levels — contributed to softer trade.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 0.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 32.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 16.1 mb fell under the 28.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 820 mb. Total 24/25 shipments have reached 730 mb, up 12% from last year.

  • A wheat crop tour in Illinois reported an average day-one yield of 106 bpa — well above last year’s estimate of 104 bpa and far exceeding the USDA’s current 85 bpa projection. However, excessive rainfall across southern Illinois and the broader Midwest is raising concerns over potential disease pressure that could threaten final yields.

  • Despite experiencing the second-warmest February in over a century, India is on track to harvest a record wheat crop. USDA pegs production at 117 mmt, which would push stockpiles to a four-year high. As India typically consumes what it produces, this surplus offers limited trade implications but contributes to the global supply glut, adding bearish sentiment to world prices.

  • According to Interfax, Russia exported 1.214 mmt of wheat from May 1 to May 20. Compared with the 3.319 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year, this represents a 63% decline year over year. Reportedly, only 18 companies shipped wheat this May, versus 77 companies in May of last year. Furthermore, total May 2025 shipments are expected to reach 1.8 mmt, which would be 2.6 mmt under the five-year average.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Other Charts / Weather

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5-21 End of Day: Grain Complex Firms on Weather Risks and Technical Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended their rally on Wednesday, marking a third straight day of gains as continued weakness in the U.S. dollar provided additional support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures logged a third consecutive day of gains, driven primarily by extended forecasts calling for drier conditions across key U.S. growing regions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher for another session, fueled by continued short covering and supportive global cues.

  • To see updated 7-day accumulated precipitation map and U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures extended their rally Wednesday, closing higher for the third consecutive day. A weaker U.S. dollar and broad-based strength across the grain complex contributed to the gains, reinforcing bullish momentum.

  • Rain fell again over much of the Corn Belt on Wednesday, providing some key moisture in areas that have been in need of rain. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres. 

  • Ethanol production rebounded to 305 million gallons last week, up from 292 MG and up 1.7% over last year.  A total of 103 mb was used in ethanol production last week, which is trending slightly below the USDA usage target for the marketing year.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 15, total new corn sales are expected to range from 700,000 – 1.6 MMT for old crop and 50,000 – 5000,000 MT for new crop. Last week’s old crop sales were 1.677 MMT, and toward the top end of expectation.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to a two-week low, adding support to grain markets. Continued dollar weakness could provide further tailwinds for exports.

Corn Finds Support at 200-day
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April on a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures have come under renewed pressure in May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns have pushed prices back below $4.70. For now, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone and 200-day moving average have held. As planting wraps up, the market’s focus will shift quickly to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook calls for a warmer, drier pattern across the Western Corn Belt into June — potentially rekindling risk premium and setting the stage for weather-driven rallies. Initial resistance is expected near $4.70, with stronger resistance at the April highs around $4.90.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day breaking out of their previous three-day narrow trading range. Both soybean meal and oil traded higher which was supportive, but extended forecasts showing dry weather were likely the larger bullish factor supporting the entire grain complex.

  • Brazilian soybean market saw it cash market premiums rise with strong buying activity by China. China is estimated to have bought 100 cargoes of soybeans in the month of May with the majority coming from Brazil, including purchase into new crop Brazil soybeans for next spring. The strong Chinese demand has lifted global soybean prices, helping support the global price of soybeans.

  • While U.S. planting progress is ahead of average, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt may temporarily delay fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast points to below-normal precipitation west of Ohio, raising early-season dryness concerns.

  • In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously and was 65% harvested last week. The catastrophic flooding will likely bring production lower.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher for another session, fueled by continued short covering and supportive global cues. Chicago open interest fell by about 4,000 contracts, while speculative traders were estimated buyers of 8,000—indicating short liquidation. Paris milling wheat futures added to gains, breaking key moving average resistance despite a firmer Euro. A weaker U.S. Dollar also provided a lift to the U.S. wheat complex.

  • China’s east-central growing region is forecast have scattered rains and cooler temperatures later this week, which should offer some relief from the recent heat, drought, and high winds. Nevertheless, some damage may have already been done, which could ultimately lead to increased Chinese wheat imports.

  • Argentina announced an extension of its reduced wheat export tax rate (9.5%) through March 31, 2026. The move is intended to support competitiveness but does not apply to corn or soybeans, narrowing the export incentive gap.

  • Traders will be keeping an eye on weather in the Black Sea region. Recent frosts in the Rostov region of Russia led to a declaration of a state of emergency, though it is worth noting that the affected area is only about 10% of the size of that which was impacted last year. Looking forward, the month of June is expected to be warm and dry in the Black Sea, which would also be unfavorable for the wheat crop. In related news, SovEcon is estimating Russian 2025 wheat production at 81 mmt, which is under both last year’s 82.6 mmt crop and the USDA’s estimate of 83 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 633.50 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 633.50 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B Update: A Plan B upside call buy stop has been added, with KC 653 identified as a key resistance level for the broader trend. A close above this level could indicate a shift toward a more bullish macro trend. In that scenario, buying call options would enable sales into strength while maintaining paper ownership.

      • The purpose of this stop is to try to avoid recommending call option purchases unless the market clearly signals it’s warranted — and a close above KC 653 would be that signal. As long as the market remains below this level, the expectation is for a continued sideways-to-lower macro trend, where call options would provide little or no benefit.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com

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5-20 End of Day: Grains Gain Ground: Wheat Leads Rally as Crop Concerns Mount

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a mixed session. July contracts continue to find support at the 100- and 200-day moving averages but have struggled to recover meaningfully from last week’s decline.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlooks maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B downside stop could possibly be added within a day or two. The front-month contract hasn’t closed below 440 since mid-December, and the July contract is currently testing that area. If support fails to hold here, the next downside risk could be a move toward 400.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Prepped for growing season volatility with upside and downside targets to start legging out of open options positions.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in the wheat market and growing concerns about late-season planting delays. July corn has now traded higher in four of the past five sessions and is nearly 20 cents above recent lows.

  • Technical momentum is building as July futures closed above the key $4.50 level on Tuesday, while December corn pushed through its 200-day moving average. These bullish signals could trigger additional short covering.

  • USDA estimated corn planting at 78% complete, up 16% from last week. This was slightly below expectations, but 15% higher than last year and 5% above the 5-year average. Most states are ahead of schedule compared to the 5-year average, but the states of Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky are behind pace due to wet weather in those states.

  • Rain covered much of the Corn Belt on Tuesday, with more expected throughout the week. While moisture is welcomed in the western Corn Belt, the eastern region remains too wet. With the calendar moving past optimal planting windows, the market is turning its attention to the final 20% of acres.

  • Attention now shifts to summer weather, as NOAA’s long-range forecasts call for a drier pattern and above-average temperatures across much of the Corn Belt — especially in the west, where dryness is already a concern.

Corn Futures Slide Back Toward 2024 Lows as Support Levels Erode
Corn futures bounced in April off the key $4.50 level, boosted by a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average. But May brought selling pressure, as strong planting progress and demand worries dragged prices back below $4.70. The $4.45–$4.50 zone has again held firm, but with momentum weakening, traders are watching to see if this critical support can withstand further pressure.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sales at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made so far to date, at 1063.50.

    • Changes:

      • Another tranche of January put options may be recommended in a couple weeks.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of mixed trade. July futures have been bouncing higher off support at the 100 and 200-day moving averages but have not been able to rally following last week’s sell-off. While planting pace has been quick, recent rains may slow progress. Both soybean meal and oil were higher to end the day.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 66%, slightly above trade expectations. This compares to 48% last week and a 5-year average of 53%. Emergence was reported at 34%, ahead of last week’s 17% and the average of 23% for this time of year.

  • While planting progress remains strong overall, recent widespread rains across the Corn Belt could slow fieldwork. Looking ahead, the 7–14-day forecast shows below-normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt west of Ohio, raising concerns about early-season dryness.

  • In Argentina, there was severe flooding over the weekend with rainfall totaling 6 to 10 inches in some areas north of Buenos Aires. The 24/25 bean crop was estimated at 50 mmt previously, but the catastrophic flooding will likely bring that number lower.

Soybean Futures Hover Near Top of Yearly Range Amid Renewed Optimism
After tumbling below the psychologically important 1000 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, soybean futures appeared to be in freefall. The break of the March floor sparked a wave of technical selling, briefly sending prices spiraling. But the decline proved fleeting. Buyers quickly stepped in, reversing the momentum and powering futures back above 1000, reclaiming key moving averages along the way.

Of particular note was the clean break above the 200-day moving average — a barrier that had long capped upside attempts. With that ceiling now acting as solid support, bullish sentiment has taken the driver’s seat. Futures are now consolidating near the upper end of their 2024 range, setting their sights on a potential retest of the February peak around $10.80. As long as pullbacks hold the 200-day line, the path of least resistance may remain higher.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 10-year average (blue) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed sharply higher Tuesday following a decline in U.S. winter wheat crop conditions in the latest USDA report. Additional heavy rainfall across parts of the already-saturated Southern Midwest raised further concerns about crop quality and may have triggered short covering. A strong rally in Paris milling wheat also supported U.S. prices, with the September Matif contract closing at its highest level in more than two weeks.

  • Winter wheat conditions dropped 2 points to 52% good to excellent, falling short of market expectations for steady ratings. Roughly 64% of the crop is now headed, ahead of the 5-year average of 58% but behind last year’s 67%. For spring wheat, planting progress reached 82%, well ahead of the 5-year average of 65% and last year’s 76%. Emergence stands at 45%, also ahead of normal.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values for June delivery remained unchanged last week at $247 per mt on FOB basis. Both IKAR and SovEcon are similar in their estimates of Russia’s May wheat exports, with the former anticipating between 1.8-2.0 mmt and the latter sitting at 1.8 mmt.

  • The USDA estimates that Brazil’s wheat planted area for 25/26 may be down 8.5% to 2.8 million hectares, when compared with the season prior. However, production is expected to be up 1.4% to 8 mmt, while their consumption is forecast to remain steady at 12.1 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Looking for Support
After months of range-bound trading, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, climbing to October highs just above 615. However, the rally proved short-lived, with prices quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, futures broke below key support near 530 and are now searching for a bottom around the 520 level. The next major technical hurdle is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above this level could signal a potential trend reversal and open the door to a broader uptrend.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Searching for Support
Kansas City wheat experienced sharp volatility in February, rallying early before settling flat by month’s end. Persistent weakness through March and April pushed prices toward recent lows — and the market broke below that support to start May. A recovery back above the prior 540 level would signal a potential bottom. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average stands as the first resistance, with a more formidable ceiling at the February highs near 640.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 696.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting for a bottom to form.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Recent Lows
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, sparking a wave of bullish momentum. The rally gained strength in mid-February with a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. However, late-month weakness briefly dragged futures back below key support levels.
Currently, futures are retreating toward recent lows, pressured by strong planting progress and favorable weather conditions across major spring wheat-growing regions. On a potential rebound, initial resistance is expected near the 600 level, where a confluence of moving averages could cap gains.

Spring wheat percent emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com