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6-17 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher as Wheat Leads on Technical Strength; Soy Extends Rally, Corn Follows

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended higher Tuesday, supported by strength across the grain complex, though July bucked the trend, slipping 4 cents.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed higher for a third straight session, supported by a drop in crop ratings and a drier extended forecast. Soybean oil snapped its sharp rally with a modest loss, while meal finished higher. Normal trading limits will resume tomorrow across the complex.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators like stochastics and RSI trend higher.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn was higher to end Tuesday’s session, lifted by the wheat market strengthening today. The July contract was the only loser, down 4 cents, to close at $4.3150.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report confirmed U.S. corn planting is complete, with crop conditions improving 1 point to 72% good-to-excellent — matching last year’s rating.

  • Global corn supplies for 2025/26 are projected to rise on improved yields, though the overall balance remains tight due to lower beginning stocks and stronger demand.

  • Corn export inspections totaled 1.673 mmt, down from 1.728 mmt last week, but up from 1.380 mmt last year. Top destinations were Japan and Mexico.

  • AgRural reported that, as of June 12, Brazil’s corn harvest is 5.2% complete, up from 1.9% the week prior but down from 21% finished at this time last year.eek last year.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day following a decline in crop ratings and drier weather in the extended forecast. Soybean oil ended its massive run today with a small loss, while soybean meal closed higher. The soy complex will go back to normal limits tomorrow.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions down 2 points to 66% good-to-excellent — below both last week and the average trade estimate. Planting is 93% complete, with 84% emerged, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 83%.

  • USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Export sales remain slow, as the U.S. is currently outside its prime soybean export window.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 216k tons as of June 12, which compared to 559k the previous week and 341k tons a year ago at this time. Primary destinations were to Germany, Japan, and Mexico.

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed with strong gains across all classes, despite a firmer U.S. dollar. Support came from higher Matif wheat, weaker U.S. crop ratings, and likely technical buying as momentum indicators, like stochastics and RSI, trend higher.

  • USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat 93% headed, with conditions slipping 2 points to 52% good-to-excellent. Harvest is 10% complete — well behind last year’s 25% and the 5-year average of 16%. Spring wheat is 89% emerged and 4% headed, with conditions improving 4 points to 57% good-to-excellent.

  • LSEG commodity research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 796.44 mmt, which compares with the 24/25 estimate of 798 mmt. Additionally, they are projecting world wheat ending stocks will decline 5.1% to 248.7 mmt.

  • Russian wheat export values are reported by IKAR to have declined last week, due to improving harvest estimates. Through July delivery, new crop Russian wheat ended last week at $222 per mt FOB, down $3 from the week before. However, SovEcon estimated new crop offers at $225 to $229 per mt, which would be steady to down $1 from the prior week.

  • Romania may harvest 12.2 MMT of wheat in 2025/26, according to Argus — the largest since 1997 — up from 10.2 MMT this season on higher yields and expanded acreage.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Remains Rangebound
First downside support should appear at last week’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Recent Highs
uly spring wheat futures closed last week just below the previous Friday’s close of 635.25.  A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target.  Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk. 

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-16 End of Day: Soybeans Continue Higher Monday, Corn and Wheat Lower 

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week on a disappointing note, pressured by weakness in wheat and a reversal in crude oil. 

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher, led by deferred contracts, as Friday’s limit-up move in soybean oil fueled strength across the soy complex and triggered expanded limits today. Soybean oil surged again, gapping higher and closing up 4.50 cents in July, while weaker soybean meal limited additional upside. 

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted modest losses across all classes, pressured by winter wheat harvest progress, a mostly benign U.S. weather outlook, and reports that Iran may be open to negotiations with Israel, easing geopolitical concerns and weighing on crude oil. 

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section. 

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn was disappointing today, following the lower wheat market and reversal in crude oil. The July contract closed nearly 10 cents lower to start the week while September and December futures were down 8 cents and 7 cents respectively. 

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 66 mb, near the high end of expectations and well above the pace needed to hit USDA’s 2.650 bb target. Year-to-date inspections stand at 2.049 bb, up 29% from last year. 

  • This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is widely expected to show corn conditions either unchanged from last week at 71% good-to-excellent or a slight increase to 72% good-to-excellent.  

  • Patria reported that Brazil’s corn harvest is now 5.5% complete, well below last year’s pace of 14% during the same week last year.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,977 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 164,020 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the deferred months posting the majority of gains following Friday’s trade in which limit up soybean oil bolstered the soy complex and led to expanded limits today. While soybean meal was lower and keeping soybeans from rallying further, soybean oil took advantage of its expanded limits, gapped higher and closed up 4.50 cents in the July contract. The soy complex will have expanded limits again tomorrow. 

  • NOPA reported a May crush of 192.83 mb, just below the average estimate of 193.52 mb. Still, it marked a record for May and was up from 190.23 mb in April. 

  • Friday’s Renewable Fuels Association announcement set biomass-based diesel quotas at 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion for 2026, and 5.86 billion for 2027 — an extremely bullish signal for soybean oil, which has gained 7.50 cents over the past two sessions. 

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buying 17,038 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 25,639 contracts. They sold 7,222 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 24,768 contracts as of June 10 and bought 9,909 contracts of meal which left them short 86,808 contracts. 

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,724 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net long 86,005 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted modest losses across the board, perhaps following crude oil lower after news outlets reported that Iran is willing to negotiate with Israel to bring an end to the hostilities. Additionally, winter wheat harvest pressure and a largely non-threatening U.S. weather forecast add weight to the shoulders of the market.  

  • Weekly wheat inspections reached 14.3 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 22 mb, which is down 17% from the year prior. Inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecast at 825 mb, up 1% from the year before.  

  • CFTC data showed managed funds were net buyers of wheat for the fourth straight week, covering 6,500 contracts in Chicago and 3,000 in Kansas City. The total net short across all three wheat classes has narrowed from a record 235,000 contracts to about 183,000. 

  • Scattered rains fell in Argentina’s central and northern wheat-growing areas over the weekend, aiding early development. Western Europe, the Black Sea region, and parts of China also saw rain, though it may be too late to significantly help crops there. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Remains Rangebound
First downside support should appear at last week’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75. 

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 17,038 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net long 25,639 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,064 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 74,964 contracts. 

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • None. Another few weeks before price targets may post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Recent Highs
uly spring wheat futures closed last week just below the previous Friday’s close of 635.25.  A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target.  Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk. 

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 10. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,927 contracts between June 3 – June 10, bringing their total position to a net short 14,150 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-13 End of Day: Grains Rally on Geopolitical Tensions and Biofuel Boost

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week mixed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in crude oil triggered short covering, while strong export demand and bullish biofuel blending targets added support. However, favorable crop weather and anticipation of the upcoming Planted Acreage report provide upside resistance.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rallied sharply into the weekend, driven by stronger-than-expected biomass diesel quotas that lifted biofuel demand prospects and pushed prices toward key resistance levels. Support also came from expectations for a solid NOPA crush report, while upcoming Midwest rainfall added upside resistance.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures surged to end the week, fueled by spillover strength from soybeans and geopolitical tensions after Israel’s reported strike on Iran, prompting short covering and risk-driven buying. Rising drought concerns in U.S. wheat regions and ongoing planting progress in Argentina also added underlying support.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Money flowed into the grain markets to end the week, and corn futures followed as futures traded higher to end the week. July futures traded 2 cents higher on the week, breaking a two-week losing streak. December corn finished the week 6 ¼ cents lower.

  • Geopolitical tensions added uncertainty to the markets as Israel launched an attack against Iranian nuclear sites during the overnight. The crude oil market traded sharply higher and helped trigger some short covering in the corn market. Traders will be watching the headlines closely over the weekend to see if there will be any escalation in the conflict.

  • July futures saw additional short covering and follow-through buying after Thursday’s close and supportive USDA report. Old crop corn carryover is at 1.365 BB, supported by strong export demand for U.S. corn. Expectations are for the carryout number to be tightened in future reports as current export sales are at 96% of the market year total on the day of the June report.

  • Strong buying in the soybean market helped support corn futures with the announcement of the EPA on the biofuels blending mandate targets. The blending target came in higher than expected at 5.6 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027. This is up significantly from the current target of 3.35 billion gallons for 2025. Soybean oil traded the price limit higher on the session, fueling the soybean rally.

  • The corn market will be focused on global headlines and weather going into the end of June. Forecasts are staying favorable for crops during this time frame, limiting the corn rally potential. The June Planted Acreage report is 17 days away and will be the report likely to set the direction of the corn market into the summer months.

Corn Futures Finish at the Top End of a Nine-Day Trading Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465. On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: From USDA – US corn total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed substantially higher heading into the weekend after new biomass diesel quotas came in higher than previously rumored. The November contract will now look to break above the first resistance level around $10.60 with the second resistance around $10.65 after today’s newfound strength.

  • The Renewable Fuels Association released the new biomass quotas today, which now stand to be 3.35 billion gallons for 2025, 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, and 5.86 billion gallons for 2027.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange slightly bumped their soybean production estimate for Argentina to 50.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate of 50 mb. The group also pegged soybean harvest in the country at 93.2% done.

  • Monday will be the release of the May NOPA Crush report. Average analyst guesses are at 193.519 mb, which if realized, would be up 1.7% from the month prior and 5.4% higher than May of last year.

  • Rainfall is expected over the next 7 days, with a majority of the soybean belt seeing anywhere from 0.25” to 4”. Higher totals are expected South of the I-80 line into Missouri and the Delta region.

July soybeans posts highest close since May 14
Strong weekly close, yet July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk.

Above: From USDA – US soybean total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed out the week sharply higher as it followed strong gains in the soy complex. Israel is reported to have launched attacks on Iran overnight, targeting their nuclear infrastructure. This led to a mix of short covering and speculative buying interest as war premium was factored back into the trade.

  • As reported by the USDA, as of June 10, an estimated 15% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from 12% a week ago. Drought also expanded in spring wheat areas by 1% to 20% for the same time period. At this time last year, only 3% of spring wheat acres were in drought.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina advanced 15% last week to 38.5% complete. A storm system moving across northeastern Argentina today and tomorrow should bring beneficial moisture to the newly planted wheat, but will likely delay harvest of corn and soybeans as well.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Finishes the Week with a Bullish Daily Reversal
The July ended a four-day losing streak, erased three days of losses, and closed back above the 50-day on the front month continuous following today’s outside bullish daily reversal. That reversal now establishes first downside support at today’s low of 522.25. A close below that support and the next downside risk would be 506.25. A lot of resistance remains above the market, yet with the recent high and 200-day at 558. A close over 558 and that could provide fuel for a bigger move towards the winter high of 621.75.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • None. Another few weeks before price targets may post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Retests Last Week’s High
July spring wheat futures closed just below last Friday’s close of 635.25. A close over that resistance would make 660 the next first upside target. Downside support is at this week’s low and the 200-day in the 607 area. A close below that support and the May low of 572.50 would be the first downside risk.

Above: From USDA – US wheat total export commitments for 2020 (purple), 2021 (blue), 2022 (green), 2023 (orange), 2024 (red), and 2025 (black).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 6-10 day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA.

Above: US 6-10 day precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA.

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6-12 End of Day: Grains Mixed After Uneventful WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher on Thursday, supported by a lower-than-expected old crop carryout in the USDA’s WASDE report due to stronger export demand. However, gains were limited by weakness in other grains and uncertainty around upcoming biofuel blending targets.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean prices closed lower as traders reacted to a mostly neutral WASDE report that made minimal changes to U.S. and global balance sheets, while a bearish weather outlook added pressure. Slight increases in global carryout and Brazil’s production estimate also contributed to the weakness.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures were mixed following a neutral USDA WASDE report that held U.S. production and stocks mostly steady but showed slight global stock declines. Harvest pressure and shifting trader focus to field activity weighed on Chicago and Kansas City markets, while Minneapolis found modest support.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Rally Watch: With five sales recommendations since December 30 at an average price of around 492, there’s a solid cushion in place to continue aiming for a weather rally for next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the session slightly higher on Thursday after the USDA report lowered old crop corn carryout due to stronger than anticipated export demand. Weakness in other grains limited the corn market’s upside. Going into Friday, July corn futures are trading 4 cents lower on the week; Dec corn futures were 8 ¾ cents lower.

  • USDA released the June WASDE report on Thursday morning. While the June report is typically a quiet report, the USDA did raise the current export forecast to 2.650 BB, lowering 2024-25 marketing year carryout to 1.365 BB. This was lower than analyst expectations and helped support the old crop futures in the session.

  • The USDA released the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 5, exporters reported new sales of 791,000 MT (31.2 mb). This total was down 26% from last week, but still within expectations. Japan was the largest buyer on U.S. corn last week.

  • The Trump administration announced the EPA has completed their review of the biofuels blending requirements and should announce the targets for 2025-26 on Friday. Concerns that the total could be less than expected may limit corn futures.

  • With the USDA report behind the market, the focus of the corn market will shift back to weather, and the planted acres report at the end of the month.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower on the day following an overall neutral WASDE report, which showed very few changes to the soybean outlook both in the U.S. and globally.

  • June’s WASDE report showed minor changes for soybeans, but did increase the 2025/26 world carryout number from 124.3 mmt in May to 125.3 mmt. Ending stocks were left unchanged for 2024/25 at 350 MB, along with 2025/26 ending stocks at 295 mb.

  • Production estimates for 2024 soybeans in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged from the month prior in today’s report at 169.0 mmt and 49.0 mmt, respectively.

  • Conab raised their soybean production forecast to 169.6 mmt, up from 168.34 mmt last month and slightly higher than the USDA’s 169.0 mmt number.

  • The weather outlook over the next week remains bearish for much of the soybean belt as chances of rain step back in, which may add further downward pressure to prices.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade, Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures posted losses, while Minneapolis made modest gains. All eyes were focused on this morning’s USDA Supply and Demand report, which was relatively neutral overall. Traders have likely moved their attention back to winter wheat harvest, which is adding pressure to those markets.

  • On today’s WASDE report, the USDA kept their 25/26 all wheat production estimate unchanged from May at 1.921 mb – the trade was anticipating a slight increase. U.S. ending stocks for 24/25 were kept steady at 841 mb. However, for the 25/26 marketing year, ending stocks decreased 25 mb from last month to 898 mb due to higher exports.

  • Globally, 24/25 wheat carryout declined from 265.2 mmt in May to 264 mmt today. For 25/26, there was also a decrease from 265.7 mmt to 262.8 mmt.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 14.3 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week at 4.3 mb were well under the 15.38 mb pace needed per week to reach their 25/26 export goal of 800 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 217 mb, up 22% from last year.

  • The Rosario Exchange in Argentina has reduced their nation’s 25/26 wheat production estimate from 21 mmt to 20.7 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be a smaller planted area due to recent heavy rains that caused flooding issues.

  • Coceral has increased their estimate of 2025 European Union soft wheat production to 143.1 mmt from the March estimate of 137.2 mmt. For reference, the 2024 crop totaled 126.3 mmt. The reason for the increase was cited as favorable weather in France, Spain, and southeastern Europe.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • New put options target added.

      • Put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 697 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • New cash sale target and new put option target.

      • Given the high yield variability from year to year in Hard Red Winter wheat, put option coverage is leveraged for early downside protection in the event of a break of support.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Update on US carryout and stocks-to-use after today’s June WASDE report.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 8-14 day temperature outlook courtesy of NOAA.

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6-11 End of Day: Grain Markets Fade from Session Highs as June WASDE Looms

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures faded from early gains to close lower, as the market lacked fresh bullish catalysts despite record ethanol production and easing U.S.-China trade tensions; attention now turns to Thursday’s WASDE and export data for potential demand-driven support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures slipped after early strength, weighed down by a bearish weather outlook and rising global stock projections, while U.S.-China trade talks offered cautious optimism despite no direct ag commitments.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mostly higher, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over wet U.S. harvest conditions and Russian drought, while traders await Thursday’s WASDE for updated stock and production estimates.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Rally Watch: With five sales recommendations since December 30 at an average price of around 492, there’s a solid cushion in place to continue aiming for a weather rally for next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing close in the corn market as prices failed to hold early session strength and finished lower on the day. The July contract led the push lower as the old crop market is looking for news to push the market higher.

  • Early session gains were fueled by optimism of an easing of the U.S.-China trade tension as negotiations in London reach some agreements. While it is still not a major trade agreement, it is still a stepping stone to further talks between the two countries.

  • The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.

  • Weekly ethanol production last week reached a record high of 1,120K barrels per day in the week ending June 6. An estimated total of 108.6 mb was used in ethanol production last week. This total was on pace to reach the USDA target for corn usage for the marketing year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 23.7 million barrels, down from 24.4 million barrels from last week.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn export demand has been strong as sales are nearly reaching the USDA market-year target. Shipments may be the key number going forward as U.S. bushels are not competing against South American bushels on the export market.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. corn yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates how uncommon it is for the USDA to change the projected national average corn yield on the June WASDE report.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans couldn’t keep up the momentum from early morning gains, closing lower on the day as a bearish weather outlook leads to choppy price action. July futures have been relatively flat with prices floating in a 13-cent range between $10.50 and $10.63 so far this week.

  • Tomorrow’s WASDE report is expected to show 2025/26 world ending stocks at 124.5 mmt, which would be higher than May’s 124.3 mmt number. Estimates for U.S. 2024/25 carryout are at 351 mb, while 2025/26 estimates are at 298 mb.

  • Anec sees Brazil’s soybean exports for the month of June reaching 14.08 mmt, up from last week’s estimate of 12.55 mmt.

  • Trade talks between the U.S. and China were reportedly successful with the two sides agreeing to a framework deal which would include magnets and rare earth minerals. There was no mention of U.S. agricultural goods, but now that the two sides seem to be on better terms, a deal could come into play at some point.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. soybean yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates how uncommon it is for the USDA to change the projected national average soybean yield on the June WASDE report.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mostly higher, led by Minneapolis futures. Support came from a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, which itself was tied to today’s CPI report that showed consumer prices increased 0.1% in May compared to expectations of a 0.2% increase.

  • Tomorrow will feature the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate of old crop wheat stocks at 844 mb, compared to 841 mb last month. New crop is estimated at 919 mb versus 923 mb last month, with production pegged at 1.925 bb.

  • While U.S. weather remains mostly favorable, the southern Midwest and southeast Plains are still too wet. Continued rains will delay winter wheat harvest activity and could also affect quality and production.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 33% year over year at 19.5 mmt as of June 8. This compares with 29.2 mmt shipped through the same time last year.

  • The Rostov area of Russia, which is their biggest grain production region, has declared a state of emergency due to drought. Spring frosts were also an issue, though less damaging than they were a year ago. This region is set to begin harvest the second part of June.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: From USDA – Historical month-to-month changes in the projected U.S. wheat yield per crop year. Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June WASDE report, this table illustrates that the USDA has made an adjustment to the projected national average wheat yield on every June WASDE report going back to the 1993 crop year. The USDA has raised the yield projection on the last 10 consecutive June WASDE reports.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 3-day maximum heat index forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: US 7-day maximum heat index forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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6-10 End of Day: Corn & Soybeans Steady-to-Higher, Wheat Lower Again

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn prices rebounded off session lows to finish higher on the day, despite a 2% increase to 71% Good/Excellent in Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report. Today’s reversal may also signal the beginning of position-squaring ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day in positive territory, though well off their session highs. Beneficial weather continues to provide resistance, while optimism over potential trade deals is offering support. Reports indicate that U.S.–China trade talks went well yesterday, but no official agreement has been announced.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes posted sizeable losses for a second consecutive session following improvements in winter and spring wheat crop conditions, as reported in the latest USDA Crop Progress Report. Adding to the bearish tone was an overnight statement from Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, projecting this year’s Russian grain harvest at 135 million metric tons — a 7% increase from last year.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Action Yet: Still waiting on a potential spring/summer weather volatility rally before recommending the next sale.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers came back into the corn market on a “turn around” Tuesday as the market was pulled higher by the front month futures as traders may have started covering short positions before Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • According to the USDA ‘s latest Crop Progress and Condition report on Monday afternoon, 97% of the corn crop is planted. This leaves approximately 2.8 million acres left to be planted on June 10. These acres, if unplanted, could lower the total planted acres for corn on the June 30 acre report back below 95 million, which should support Dec corn futures at these levels.

  • The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.

  • Corn crop conditions improved by 2% Good/Excellent to 71% G/E in Monday’s Crop Progress report. The firmness in corn prices on Tuesday may have signified that those conditions were priced in with the weakness on Monday.

  • Corn charts saw an improved technical picture with Tuesday’s close as prices reversed higher off early session lows. Price follow-through on Wednesday may be key for signaling a turn in an oversold market.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

    • No Changes (for Now): Despite last week’s break of 1036.50 support, the 1107 target remains active to recommend making the next sale.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day in positive territory, though they reversed off earlier highs that saw the July contract up more than 6 cents at one point. Beneficial weather has continued to apply downward pressure, while optimism over potential trade deals with other countries has offered support. Both soybean meal and soybean oil also ended the day higher.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its updated Crop Progress report which showed the crop at 90% planted which was up from 84% a week ago, and 75% has emerged which compared to 63% a week ago. Crop conditions improved by 1 point with 68% of the crop now rated good to excellent.

  • China imported a record number of soybeans in the month of May. For the month, China imported an estimated 13.92 MMT (511 MB). The strong imports followed disappointing totals in February, March, and April as Chinese importers were waiting for the freshly harvested Brazilian soybeans to hit the export market.

  • The trade talks between the U.S. and China yesterday reportedly went well but a deal has not yet been released. Trade deals with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea are reportedly very close.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the downside leader in the grain complex today, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar, lower Matif wheat futures, and improving U.S. crop ratings. Additionally, from a technical perspective, all three U.S. futures classes now have downward momentum on the daily RSI and stochastics.

  • According to the USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 54% good to excellent. Additionally, 88% of the crop is headed and harvest is 4% complete, which is well below last year’s 11% pace and the average of 7%. The Spring wheat crop is 82% emerged, and conditions improved 3% from a week ago to 53% good to excellent.

  • Overnight, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia stated that this year’s Russian grain harvest would total 135 mmt, which would be 7% above last year’s 125.9 mmt production. Additionally, 93% of their winter crops are said to be in good condition. This added to pressure in the U.S. wheat market today.

  • Wheat harvest is set to start in the North China Plain this week, though may be delayed by scattered rains late in the week. Heaviest rain totals will be across southeast China into next week.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-9 End of Day: Grains All Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed sharply lower as long-range weather models turned wetter. The July contract posted its lowest close since October 18, while the December contract gave back all its gains from the previous three trading sessions.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower despite better-than-expected export inspections of 20.1 million bushels for the week ended June 5. Both the July and November contracts snapped a four-day winning streak yet remain above their June lows by roughly 30 cents and 15 cents, respectively.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes posted their largest one-day losses since May 27. The drop was driven by a combination of harvest pressure, weaker Matif wheat, beneficial weekend rains in Australia, and an improved rainfall outlook for the U.S. Northern Plains.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Action Yet: Still waiting on a potential spring/summer weather volatility rally before recommending the next sale.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Volatility-Ready: Positioned well for potential market swings, with a solid base of sales and open call and put option positions in place. Active targets remain set to begin legging out of options and roll down call options to lower strikes as conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Disappointing day in the corn market as sellers stepped aggressively back into the corn market. The strong selling pressure eliminated the gains in the Dec corn contract last week and a wetter tone in some forecast and technical selling pressured the market

  • Dec corn futures failed to push through the psychological 450 price area. The failure at this level triggered selling pressure as prices continue to drop through levels of support. The weak technical close opens the door for additional selling pressure going into Tuesday.

  • Long-range weather models turn heavier with precipitation from the end of June into early July, which countered some drier weather talk last week.

  • USDA will release crop progress and condition ratings on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for 97% of the corn crop to be planted. Conditions ratings have been below average, but improved weather is expected to boost the rating to 70% good/excellent, up 1% from last week.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday. Last week, US exporters shipped 1.657 MMT (65.2 mb) of corn. This total was above market expectations. Current corn shipments are up 29% over last year. The current shipment pace is ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year target by approximately 160 mb.

Corn Futures Settle Into a Tight, Five-Day Range
The front-month July contract has settled into a tight five-day trading range, largely between 433 and 445. A close below 433 would open the door to downside risk toward 408, while a close above 445 would point to an upside opportunity near 465.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 53,283 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 154,043 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the deferred contracts posting the larger losses in general weakness across the grain complex. July futures remain above all major moving averages and the 100-day moving average is now acting as support. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections better than expected at 20.1 mb for the week ending June 5. Year-to-date soybean inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 81 mb which was up from 72 mb the previous week.

  • Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 28,096 contracts which left them with a long position of 8,601 contracts. They sold 21,998 contracts of oil and 2,932 contracts of meal.

Soybean Futures Stall – Resistance Remains
Last Monday, the July contract closed 8 cents lower, breaking 1036.50 support and posting its lowest close since April 10. Over the next four trading days, July rallied, gaining about 24 cents and finishing the week up 16 cents net. The four-day winning streak pushed July back above all major moving averages, but to break out of the broader sideways trading range that’s held since last summer, the contract still needs to clear the May high of 1082.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,096 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net long 8,601 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat began the week with double-digit losses for all three classes by the close as markets took a risk off posture. A combination of harvest pressure and a lower close for Matif wheat added weight to the market today. Additionally, rainfall anticipated this week in the US northern plains as well as for the second week of the outlook in China’s wheat growing areas added to weakness. Australian wheat growing regions received beneficial rains over the weekend too.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 10.7 mb with 4.5 mb of that total for the 24/25 marketing year. For 25/26 total inspections are now at 6 mb, down 43% from last year and running well under the USDA’s estimated pace. They are forecasting 25/26 wheat exports will reach 800 mb, down 3% from the year prior.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian 2025 wheat production by 1.8 mmt to 82.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 83 mmt. Additionally, IKAR has said Russian wheat export values finished last week at $225 per mt, unchanged from the week before.

  • This Thursday will feature the monthly WASDE report – the average pre-report estimate of 2025 US wheat production comes in at 1.924 bb, up from 1.921 bb in the May report. Of that total, winter wheat is expected to account for 1.389 bb vs 1.382 bb last month.

  • Analyst group APK-Inform has reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 mmt. This is said to be mainly due to smaller corn and wheat harvests. The wheat production estimate in particular was revised down 0.1 mmt from last month to 21.7 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Hits Resistance
The July contract faced a sharp rejection after testing the 200-day moving average at 557.75. A close above that level could open the door for a broader rally toward the April high of 621.75. However, until that resistance is cleared, the risk remains for sideways-to-lower trade, with 506.25 as the recent downside reference point.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 654 contracts between May 27– June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 100,572 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance At 550
First resistance stands at last week’s high of 550.50. A breakout above that level would shift focus to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in the 565–567 range. Clearing that secondary resistance could open the door to broader upside potential, with targets in the 600–620 zone — near the early spring highs. On the downside, the May low of 500.25 remains a key support level. Failure to break out above resistance would keep the trend sideways to lower, with that low as the next risk.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1333 contracts between May 27– June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 78,028 contracts.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • This week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Leading the Complex
July spring wheat futures have outperformed both Chicago and KC wheat since all three markets bottomed in mid-May. It is the only July wheat contract currently trading above all three major moving averages — the 50-, 100-, and 200-day — which have now converged in the 605–610 range, establishing a key support zone. A close below 605 would expose the market to downside risk toward 580. However, as long as 605 holds, the broader upside potential remains intact, with room to rally toward the 660 level.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, June 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 10,441 contracts between May 27 – June 3, bringing their total position to a net short 20,077 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-6 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher to End Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures found close higher on short covering going into the weekend. Extended weather forecast turning drier helped drive prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rebounded from early losses, led by concerns over drought conditions heading further into June and July.

  • 🌾 Wheat: All three wheat classes finished higher today, finding support from increasing war tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a fourth portion of your 2026 corn. The December ‘26 contract has reached the upside target of 474.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market finished the week with some buying strength, led by short covering and value buying in the July futures. December corn closed the week 10 ¾ cents higher and traded higher for 4 consecutive sessions. July corn was still 1 ½ cents lower on the week and posted its lowest weekly close since October.

  • Early season weather has been favorable for a good start to this year’s corn crop, but some longer-range models are showing a possibility of drier forecast for the west-central corn belt for the end of June into July. A possible weather concern has triggered some short covering of new crop corn this week.

  • USDA will release the June WASDE report on June 12. While changes will likely be minimal for new crop projections, analysts are anticipating a demand increase for old crop bushel, lowering the 2024-25 carryout projects. Solid ethanol and export demand this spring supports possible adjustments.

  • Brazil corn prices have been under heavy pressure as harvest picks up speed and the prospects of a large harvest build due to good growing conditions. Weakness in Brazil corn prices have pressured old crop US corn prices.

  • Despite fresh corn supplies from Argentina and Brazil in the export market, US corn prices are still competitive. Rumors were in the market that South Korea was a purchaser of corn this week out of the Pacific Northwest ports.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES –

    • Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6.

    • Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the week and posted their fourth consecutive higher close as the longer-term forecasts turn hotter and drier. Positive trade talks between President Trump and China’s Xi this week were supportive to the soy complex as well. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that soybean harvest in Argentina is now 88.7% complete, up 8% from the week prior.

  • Drought conditions are still persistent across the soybean belt but were seen shrinking by 1% to 16%. This compares to just 2% during the same period last year.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 15-1/2 cents to 10.57-1/4 while November gained just 10-1/4 cents. July soybean meal was virtually unchanged losing just $0.60 at $295.70, and July soybean oil gained 0.61 cents closing at 47.50 cents.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures found good buying strength across all three classes of wheat during Friday’s session. The July Chicago wheat contract posted its highest daily close since April 23 and finished the week 20 ¾ cents higher.

  • An increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine triggered some short covering in the wheat market as traders have added some war premium back into the market.

  • Chinese wheat producing regions are experiencing some drought conditions as harvest approaches. The prospects of a below-average harvest have the wheat market watching for some possible increased export activity as China may need to maintain wheat supplies.

  • USDA announced that wheat export shipments for the 2024-25 marketing year reached 768.3 MB as of May 29. The total was well below the USDA target of 820 mb for the marketing, which closed on May 30. New crop wheat export sales are firm to start the new marketing year as early totals are the best in the past twelve years for this time frame.

  • Recent rainfall forecast in Hard red winter wheat growing areas has trended wetter than normal with precipitation. As harvest ramps up, wet conditions could impact the quality of the wheat harvest.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • The 699.25 target has been cancelled.

      • Looking ahead, next week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 693.75 target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None. Continue to target 675 to make a second sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Looking ahead, next week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Looking ahead, next week will likely be the final week that Grain Market Insider provides guidance on the 2024 crop before fully shifting focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-5 End of Day: Grains Edge Higher Following Positive Talks Between US and China

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mostly higher on the day thanks to strong export sales and flow over support from high ethanol output data yesterday.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans got a boost on Thursday after confirmation of positive trade war talks between the U.S. and China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by global production cuts and a slightly weaker dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Short covering and value buying helped lift the corn markets for the second consecutive session as new corn crop prices led the market higher. December corn futures are trading 9 ¾ cents higher going into Friday trade.

  • Despite the strong tone of demand in both export sales and ethanol usage, the corn market remained bear-spread with limited gains or extended selling pressure in the July contract. The strong planting pace, prospects of large Brazil corn crop, and crop-friendly weather forecast have seen end users comfortable with front end supplies, limited upside currently on old crop corn prices. July corn futures are 4 ½ cents lower on the week going into Friday trade.

  • USDA released corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 29, the USDA reported new sales of 942,000 MT (37.1 mb) for 2024-25, and 160,000 MT (6.3 mb) for 2025-26. This was within analysts’ expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. Total export sales commitments for 2024-25 marketing year now total 2.564 bb, up 27% from a year ago, and within 36 mb of the USDA target for the year.

  • Commodity markets were supported by comments by President Trump regarding his phone conversation with President Xi of China. The possibility of more dialogue eased some of the trade tensions fears that may have limited the corn market over recent sessions.

  • Weather forecast into the middle of June remains supportive for good crop growth, and a limiting gain in the corn market. Longer range models reflect a drier and warm pattern going into the end of the month, but long-range forecast lack reliability and can change daily.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ACTION – Buy January ‘26 1040 put options for approximately 49 cents in premium, plus fees and commission. This is a recommendation to purchase a second round of 1040 puts, following the first round advised on May 6. Seasonally, May and June are key months to secure downside price protection. Adding this second layer provides additional coverage against lower prices while preserving upside potential and avoiding any further commitment of physical bushels.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support Monday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Monday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher today following positive trade talks between President Trump and China’s Xi, which will hopefully lead to further negotiations. Today’s export sales report fell within trade expectations but were not very strong. Soybean meal was slightly higher, while bean oil was mixed in bear spreading action.

  • Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 7.1 million bushels of soybean sales for 24/25 and 0.1 mb for 25/26. This was up 33% from last week but down 30% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were Bangladesh, Norway, and Taiwan. Last week’s export shipments of 11.3 mb were below the 13.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.

  • Today, Presidents Trump and Xi spoke on the phone and, according to Trum,p had a very good conversation regarding the countries’ trade truce. More meetings are expected to follow and will ideally end with a trade agreement.

  • The soybean meal market could provide some support for soybean futures in the near future. Managed hedge funds are holding a near-record short position in the soybean meal market, but demand for U.S. soybean meal has been improving. Soybean meal exports for the current marketing year are at a record pace and up 5% over last year. With the prospects of tighter acres for next crop year, soybean meal could see buying strength from value buyers at these price levels.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With the exception of Minneapolis futures, wheat closed marginally higher today. Ongoing concerns about global production, along with anticipation of better U.S. and world trade relations helped keep the wheat settlements mostly positive. However, U.S. winter wheat harvest pressure may somewhat limit upside potential for now.

  • Grain markets may have received a boost today in part due to the phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. It appears to have been constructive; news outlets report that Trump stated it was a “very good phone call” and this may have given traders some optimism that a trade deal is near.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 1.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25, but an increase of 16.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week reached 19.8 mb, which is well below the 50.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 820 mb export goal for 24/25. Total 24/25 shipments at 768 mb are up 13% from last year.

  • Recent rains have improved the drought situation for both winter and spring wheat areas. According to the USDA, as of June 3, an estimated 12% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is down 4% from last week. Meanwhile, spring wheat areas in drought dropped from 29% to 19% during the same time period.

  • LSEG sees Chinese wheat production at 141.7 mmt in their latest estimate. This would be down 1% from the last update and the decrease is due to the impact of ongoing drought. Other private estimates range as low as 133-135 mmt. For reference, last year China’s wheat crop was a record 140 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

6-4 End of Day: Grains Firm Midweek on Weather and Trade Hopes

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished mostly higher Wednesday, supported by seasonal strength and a potentially drier long-range outlook. Gains were limited by weakness in July futures and ongoing bear spreading.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans climbed higher, buoyed by concerns over a hot, dry summer pattern and renewed optimism surrounding potential U.S.-China trade discussions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted solid gains across all classes, lifted by a weaker U.S. dollar, strength in row crops, and firmer Paris milling wheat prices.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Continuing to hold out for potential upside volatility during the growing season before issuing the next sales recommendations.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Well positioned for growing season volatility, with a solid base of sales already in place. Both upside and downside targets remain active — ready to begin legging out of open options positions and to roll down call options as market conditions warrant.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 474 vs December ‘26.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 460.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Be prepared for the next sales recommendation at any time as sales need to be systematically and incrementally progressed based on the calendar throughout the growing season.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mostly higher Wednesday, supported by seasonal strength and hints of a drier long-range forecast, though gains were capped by July weakness and bear spreading.

  • While recent rainfall across the Corn Belt has pressured prices, some model runs now suggest a drier pattern for the Western Corn Belt into late June, encouraging short covering in December corn. However, long-range forecasts remain volatile and subject to change.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning, and expectations are for corn sales to remain supportive. For the week ending May 28, New corn sales are expected to range from 775,000-1.4 MMT. Last week’s sales were 916,500 MT.

  • Ethanol production climbed to 1.105 million barrels per day last week, up from the previous week and last year. An estimated 107.2 million bushels of corn were used, in line with USDA’s pace for the marketing year.

Corn Futures Eye Weather Risks After May Pullback
After bouncing off the key $4.50 level in April following a bullish WASDE and a break above the 50-day moving average, corn futures faced renewed pressure through May. Rapid planting progress and lingering demand concerns dragged prices back below $4.70. So far, the $4.45–$4.50 support zone — reinforced by the 200-day moving average — has held firm. With planting nearing completion, market focus is quickly shifting to summer weather. NOAA’s extended outlook for a warmer, drier Western Corn Belt could revive risk premium and set the stage for weather-driven rallies. Resistance emerges near $4.70, with stronger resistance around the April highs at $4.90.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs July.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • No Changes (for Now): While there are no adjustments at the moment, Monday’s close below 1036 support could prompt a revision to Plan A in the near future. Stay alert for potential updates.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2025 soybean crop. The November contract closed below key 1018.50 support Monday, triggering Grain Market Insider’s Plan B strategy, which recommends selling a second portion of your 2025 soybean crop.  Bigger picture, the soybean market continues to trade within a broader range — roughly 1060 on the topside and 960 on the bottom. Monday’s break of support shifts the short-term trend within this sideways range to down, increasing the risk of a move back toward 960.

  • Plan A:

    • No active sales targets.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • Make a cash sale if November closes below 1018.50 support (HIT 6/2).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target Cancelled: The Plan A upside sales target at 1114 has been cancelled following Monday’s break of 1018.50 support.

      • Heads Up: A recommendation to buy another tranche of January put options is likely coming tomorrow, based on calendar and seasonal timing considerations.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • We’re now in the seasonal window where first sales targets for next year’s crop could post at any time. Stay tuned.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to a drier extended forecast that may point to the start of a hot and dry summer. Soybean meal led the complex higher as soybean oil traded unchanged to slightly higher. President Trump’s upcoming discussion with China’s Xi may be supportive as well.

  • Roughly 13.7 million soybean acres remain unplanted, ahead of the average pace based on March Prospective Plantings, thanks to favorable early weather.

  • U.S. soybeans are now the cheapest option for smaller vessel shipments to Europe and North Africa for August–September, even undercutting northern Brazil after a sharp 25-cent basis increase there over the past two weeks.

  • Market sentiment is finding some support from the White House’s continued optimism that President Trump and China’s President Xi will hold direct talks, offering hope for improved trade relations.

Soybean Futures Remain Range-Bound into June
Soybean futures tumbled below the key $10.00 mark in early April on tariff-related headlines, triggering technical selling after breaking the March low. However, the decline was short-lived as buyers stepped in, lifting prices back above $10.00 and reclaiming key moving averages, including a clean break above the 200-day moving average — a level that now serves as solid support. With no fresh bullish catalyst and favorable weather weighing on sentiment, futures remain range-bound. The 200-day should continue to offer support, while resistance holds near the May high of $10.82.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, strength in corn and soybeans, and gains in Paris milling wheat. Frost concerns in Argentina and optimism over upcoming U.S.-China trade talks added to the bullish tone.

  • Heavy rains in the Southern Plains and Midwest are causing harvest delays and raising disease concerns due to localized flooding.

  • Bearish pressure lingers from cheap Russian wheat, with FOB offers around $225/mt and a 25% cut to their wheat export duty, now at 1,023.5 Rubles/mt through June 10.

  • Shaanxi and Henan provinces in China, which are both part of their wheat belt, continue to be impacted by hot and dry weather. And while those with irrigation systems have steady yields, some farmers claim that their harvest has been reduced by half. Official Chinese estimates are several weeks away, but the drought does appear to be having a significant impact from these anecdotal reports.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 699.25 vs July for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 693.75 against July for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Potentially Finds Support
After months of range-bound trade, Chicago wheat futures broke out in February, reaching October highs above $6.15 before quickly retreating back into their 2024 range. By mid-May, prices slipped below key support near $5.30 but have since stabilized around $5.20. The next major resistance is the 200-day moving average — a firm weekly close above it could signal a trend reversal and open the door to broader gains.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • The first sales targets could post this week — keep checking back for updates.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Support
With ample spring moisture across the Plains and sluggish demand, wheat futures have lacked bullish momentum, recently touching multi-year lows near $5.00 in early May—a level that has since held. A recovery above $5.40 would suggest a potential bottom is in place. On a rebound, the 200-day moving average marks initial resistance, with a stronger ceiling at the February highs near $6.40.

2024 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell another portion of your 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop. This marks the sixth sale for the 2024 crop and may well be the final sales recommendation for this marketing year, as Grain Market Insider shifts focus to the 2025 and 2026 crops moving forward. Use this rally as an opportunity to consider pricing any remaining unsold bushels.

  • Plan A: Sell more cash now.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if July KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • First sales targets are expected to post after July 1.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Runs Higher on Poor Conditions
Spring wheat futures broke out of a prolonged sideways trend in late January, with momentum accelerating in mid-February after a decisive close above the 200-day moving average. Although late-month weakness briefly pulled prices below key support, futures traded mostly sideways through spring. A sharp rally was triggered in late May after crop condition ratings came in at their second lowest in 40 years, sparking short covering. Prices are now back above a confluence of moving averages and nearing the top of the recent range. Key support sits just above $6.00, with the next upside target near February’s highs around $6.60.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather