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8-6 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed as Corn and Soy Struggle Under Supply Pressure, Wheat Finds Support in Export Strength

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures pushed to fresh lows on Wednesday, testing key psychological levels of $3.80 for September and $4.00 for December. A firmer wheat market and late-session profit-taking helped prices recover slightly into the close.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for a second straight session, giving up early gains once again. Forecasts for better August rains and expectations for high yields in next week’s WASDE pressured the soy complex.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended higher Wednesday, snapping a five-day losing streak, supported by a strong start to U.S. export demand in the 2025/26 marketing year.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pushed to fresh lows on Wednesday, testing key psychological levels of $3.80 for September and $4.00 for December. The potential for a record harvest continues to outweigh a strong demand tone, keeping downside momentum intact.

  • December corn futures, the most actively traded contract, spent much of the session below $4.00. However, a firmer wheat market and late-session profit-taking helped prices recover slightly into the close.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 318 million gallons/day last week, down from 322 last week, but still 1% higher over last year. An estimated 108 mb of corn was used last week for ethanol production. This was below the estimates needed to reach the USDA 2024-25 ethanol targets. USDA will likely lower ethanol usage slightly in next week’s report for old crop corn.

  • Corn export demand remains robust. U.S. Census data showed June corn exports at 256.6 million bushels, the second-largest on record. July shipments remain strong, and new crop sales are off to their best start in several years amid firm global demand.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales data on Thursday morning. Old crop sales are expected to remain softer with the marketing year coming to a close on August 30, but new crop sales should remain strong. With published sales, approximately 862,000 MT of new crop sales were published for the week ending July 31.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • With the move into August and additional price weakness, the 1114 upside sales target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day and once again started the day with gains before giving them up into the close. Better chances for August rains along with expectations for high yields in next week’s WASDE report pressured the soy complex. Soybean meal was lower while bean oil was mixed with the two front months lower and back months higher.

  • Brazilian soybean sales for the 2024/25 season are 78.4% complete as of August 5, down from 82.2% sold a year ago, according to Safras & Mercado. Sales for the 2025/26 crop are at 16.6% of expected output.

  • Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to plant 120 million acres in the 25/26 season according to consulting firm Celeres. StoneX anticipates that this will cause production to rise by 5.6% from the previous season to 178.2 mmt. For the 24/25 season, StoneX raised its production forecast to 111.7 mmt

  • Trade rumors of a potential U.S.-China agreement offered early support, but with China still absent from the U.S. soybean market, trader confidence may be fading. Additionally, President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on India to 50% may add downside pressure to soy prices.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After five consecutive days of losses, the wheat markets finally posted gains by the close of Wednesday’s trading session, supported by a strong start to U.S. export demand for the 2025–2026 marketing year.

  • While most U.S. crops are thriving, spring wheat continues to face challenges. The crop’s good-to-excellent rating fell to 48%, down 1% from the previous week and significantly lower than last year’s rating of 74%. However, the top-producing state, North Dakota, is showing more favorable conditions, with 64% of its crop rated good to excellent.

  • U.S. wheat exports reached 63 million bushels in June, marking a 13% increase year over year. The top export destinations included the Philippines, Mexico, Nigeria, and Japan. With the U.S. wheat harvest nearing completion, traders are hopeful that the current export momentum will continue into the coming months.

  • Combined open interest in Chicago and Kansas City wheat rose by nearly 9,000 contracts yesterday, even as prices dropped to new lows. While the market is showing increasingly oversold conditions, this alone does not necessarily signal an imminent rally from a technical standpoint.

  • The spring wheat harvest is expected to continue in the near term, as producers work around forecasted storms across parts of the Plains. While weather disruptions may slow progress in some areas, harvest activity remains steady overall. U.S. spring wheat harvest stands at 86% complete, just one point below the five-year average.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • New upside sales target.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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8-5 End of Day: Markets Lean Bearish as Harvest Nears and Ratings Hold Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures hit new lows as strong crop ratings and expectations for a large harvest outweighed supportive demand; technicals remain weak, encouraging sellers.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower after early gains faded; November briefly broke above $10.00 before slipping. Crop Progress showed soybean ratings at 69% good-to-excellent, down one point from last week.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board as harvest pressure and steady farmer selling continued to weigh on prices.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures hit new lows as strong crop ratings and expectations for a large harvest outweighed supportive demand; technicals remain weak, encouraging sellers.

  • USDA reported a flash sale of 128,000 MT (5.03 mb) of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26. U.S. corn remains highly competitive, with new crop sales ranking third-best in a decade for this time of year.

  • Corn crop rating remains strong at 73% G/E. Only 2016 was rated higher in the past decade for this time frame. The strong ratings have corn market traders comfortable with the short side of the market given the possible potential yield.

  • The corn market will be looking toward the August WASDE report on August 12 and the potential adjustments in corn yield given the condition of the crop. One private analyst group forecasted the August yield at 188.1 bushels/acre, up 7 bu/acre of trendline yield. More individual private analysts’ estimates will start hitting the news as the report moves closer.

  • Weather forecasts remain most favorable in the near term. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal, but rainfall is expected to also be normal to above normal for the same time period.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • With the move into August and additional price weakness, the 1114 upside sales target has been cancelled.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower after early gains faded; November briefly broke above $10.00 before slipping. Soybean meal rose, but bean oil followed crude lower.

  • Brazilian soybean farmers are expected to plant 120 million acres in the 25/26 season according to consulting firm Celeres. StoneX anticipates that this will cause production to rise by 5.6% from the previous season to 178.2 mmt. For the 24/25 season, StoneX raised its production forecast to 111.7 mmt.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point from last week to 69% good to excellent, but trade expected this. 58% of the soybean crop is setting pods and 85% is blooming

  • Yesterday’s Export Inspection report saw soybean sales still sluggish but ahead of last week at 613k tons. This compared to 428k last week and 267k a year ago. Poor export demand combined with likely large yields have pressured the market- StoneX has forecast US yields at 53.6 bpa.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat markets closed lower across the entire complex today as new crop supplies continue to enter the pipeline. Active global harvest pressure and steady farmer selling have weighed on prices. With favorable weather expected to persist through the remainder of the harvest season, fresh supplies are likely to keep flowing into the market in the near term.

  • The U.S. winter wheat harvest is now 86% complete, in line with the five-year average. Progress remains slowest in Montana and South Dakota, where harvest operations are trailing behind other key producing states.

  • Open interest in Chicago wheat jumped over 18,000 contracts Monday despite flat prices, signaling fresh positioning ahead of key supply updates.

  • Wheat export inspections for the week ending July 31 totaled 599,595 metric tons. Cumulative inspections for the marketing year to date have reached 3,911,270 metric tons, up 8.7% from the same period last year. This represents 16.9% of USDA’s 2025/26 export forecast, compared to the five-year average of 15.6% at this point in the season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

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8-4 End of Day: Soybeans Find Footing, Corn Slips to New Lows Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher for the first time in seven sessions, with November finding technical support near $9.85. The rebound appeared chart-driven, as fundamental pressures from moderate weather and weak export demand persist.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the session mixed, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger Paris wheat futures, though gains were limited by generally favorable global weather and a lack of fresh bullish news.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week, with December settling at $4.07. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 1.208 MMT (47.5 mb), in line with expectations. Inspections remain 28% ahead of last year, but nearly 8.0 MMT in outstanding sales must be shipped before the August 30 marketing year end.

  • Brazil corn harvest made good progress over the week as weather improved. In the key center-southern regions of Brazil, harvest is 81% complete, up 13% from last week. This is still trending behind last year’s 95% complete levels as a slow start to harvest due to weather and the large production has limited the pace.

  • USDA crop ratings, due Monday afternoon, are expected to show corn rated 73% good/excellent, steady with last week. Ratings often decline this time of year as the crop matures.

  • Managed funds increased short positions in corn by 3,820 contracts last week, bringing the total net short to 181,185 contracts. Favorable U.S. weather and large crop expectations continue to drive bearish sentiment.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,820 contracts between July 22- July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 181,185 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the first time in seven days with the November contract seeming to find support at the $9.85 level. Today’s move felt more technical than anything as weather forecasts have stayed moderate and export demand remains weak. Soybean meal led the complex higher while soybean oil was mostly lower.

  • June U.S. soybean crush totaled 197.1 million bushels—up 7.4% from a year ago but down from May’s 203.7 mb. Robust crush activity has added to global soybean meal supplies, even as soybean oil demand remains firm.

  • China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 25,445 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 36,311 contracts. They bought 11,274 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 66,600 contracts and sold 3,615 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,358 contracts.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,445 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 36,311 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session with a mixed close. On the positive side, today’s lower U.S. Dollar Index and higher finish for Paris wheat futures were supportive. But pitted against mostly favorable global weather and a lack of fresh friendly news, wheat did not have much reason to move strongly in either direction today.

  •  Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 22 million bushels, lifting 2025/26 marketing year totals to 144 mb—up 9% from a year ago and running ahead of USDA’s projected pace of 850 mb.

  • The Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 15.5 mmt so far. This is 39% behind last year’s 25.3 mmt collected at this time. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.4 mmt, compared to 19.4 mmt a year ago.

  • According to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added just over 13,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. That is an increase of about 25.5% in only one week, bringing the total number of contracts to just over 65,000. Additionally, they added over 3,000 contracts to their net short in Kansas City wheat, now sitting over 47,000 contracts in total.

  • Heavy rainfall is forecast for the Canadian Prairies this week, likely benefiting wheat conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, though Manitoba may still face suboptimal soil moisture levels.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,283 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 65,324 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,321 contracts between July 22– July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 47,280 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,433 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 17,721 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-1 End of Day: Ongoing Trade Concerns Weigh on Grains

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn ended the week lower, unable to gain momentum despite favorable demand news.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day under pressure, weighed down by a bearish weather forecast and ongoing concerns over demand as tariff negotiations continue.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat wrapped up the week with losses across all contracts, facing pressure from renewed tariff concerns and a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the front end of the corn market to close out the week, with the September contract posting moderate losses and dragging down the broader grain complex. For the week, September corn fell 10 cents, while December corn declined 8 ¼ cents. Additional weakness in the wheat market contributed to the downward pressure, despite supportive demand news and a softer U.S. dollar index.

  • The USDA announced two flash export sales on Friday morning. Sales were announced for unknown destinations buying 125,000 MT (4.9 mb) and 227,160 MT (8.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • New crop corn export demand continues to provide underlying support, as U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global market. With today’s announced flash sales, U.S. exporters have reported 13 separate sales of old and new crop corn since July 24. Current new crop export commitments rank as the third strongest for this time of year in the past decade.

  • The U.S. dollar was lower on the session after the market reacted to a disappointing Jobs report and the announcement of new tariffs. This could signal a lower trend for the U.S. dollar, which should help support corn prices.

  • The extended forecast remains mostly supportive of crop development through mid-August. Temperatures are expected to trend slightly above normal, while rainfall chances range from normal to above normal across much of the Corn Belt — conditions that should continue to aid crop progress.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day unchanged in the front months, while deferred contracts closed slightly higher. November futures took out the previous day’s low every day this week due to bearish weather forecasts and concerns over demand. Soybean meal recovered a portion of its losses while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.

  • Ongoing demand concerns are pressuring soybean prices, with current new crop export sales tracking at the weakest level in the past decade. Notably, China has been absent from new crop purchases — an unusual development, as buying typically begins in July.

  • China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 37 cents and made a new contract low while November soybeans lost 31-3/4 cents to $9.89-1/4. August soybean meal only lost $0.30 to $267.60 while August soybean oil lost 1.77 to 54.72 cents and posted a bearish reversal.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • U.S. wheat posted losses across the board, alongside a lower close for Paris milling wheat. Weakness in the U.S. wheat market was in part driven by the selloff in equities. The stock market fell today after new reciprocal tariffs went into effect, and the weaker than expected jobs report also did not help the situation.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina is 98% complete and the crop is rated 61% good to excellent. This marks a 10% improvement from the previous report; at this time last year, the crop was only 31% rated GTE. Recent rains have boosted soil moisture levels and contributed to better overall crop conditions.

  • SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Ukrainian wheat production by 2.8 mmt to 19.8 mmt; the USDA is sitting at 22 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be poor yield results so far – reportedly the average yields are the lowest since 2019. In addition, SovEcon decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.3 mmt to 83.3 mmt for similar reasons.

  • The French wheat harvest pace has accelerated due to dry weather. Now said to be 89% complete, this is well above the 63% collected at this time last year, and the average of 78%. And on a bearish note, the European Union as a whole is anticipating a wheat crop that is 17 mmt bigger than last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop today.  The first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider made for the 2026 crop was at 624. A second sale here today will bring the sales average price to approximately 600 vs July ‘26 futures.

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-31 End of Day: Corn Gains on Export Strength; Wheat and Soybeans Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed mostly higher today, supported by a positive export report and signs of improved demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower again, as ongoing weather pressure and improving crop conditions weighed on the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat ends mixed pressured from a stronger U.S. Dollar and the market adjusts from oversold levels.

To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed, with front-month contracts showing buying strength supported by positive export news. Gains remained modest as the market balances an improved new-crop demand forecast against the potential for a record corn harvest this fall.

  • Weekly corn export sales reflected a strong week of activity for new crop corn. For the week ending July 24, new crop corn sales were 1.892 MMT (74.5 mb), which was above market expectations as US corn is competitive versus global competition. Old crop sales slowed as the market year is winding down at 349,000 MT (13.4 mb) down 47% from last week.

  • USDA reported three flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. Unknown destinations purchased 136,000MT (5.3 mb), Colombia purchased 100,000 MT (3.9 mb), and South Korea purchased 140,000 MT (5.5 mb). All purchases were for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • President Trump announced a 90-day negotiation period with Mexico regard trade and possible tariffs. The U.S. is currently holding the 25% trade tariff in place for the 90-day time window. Mexico is the largest importer on U.S. corn.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at its highest level since May, recovering from recent lows. A stronger dollar against foreign currencies may reduce or eliminate the competitive edge U.S. corn currently holds in the export market.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the fifth straight day, pressured by improving August crop forecasts. November soybeans hit their lowest close since early April. While export sales remained solid, they weren’t enough to support prices. Today also marked first notice day for August futures. Soybean meal gained ground, but soybean oil declined alongside crude oil.

  • Today the USDA reported an increase of 12.8 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 15.8 mb for 25/26. This was within trade expectations, and top buyers were Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 18.4 mb were above the 17.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Private analyst in Brazil are estimating continued growth in Brazil’s soybean production for 2025-26. The expectations are for the Brazil’s crop next year to reach nearly 120 million acres of production and production to grow to nearly 180 MMT.

  • With the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause set to expire on August 12, officials are reportedly working to extend the agreement. However, progress on a broader trade deal remains elusive, and China’s limited cooperation casts doubt on their need for U.S. soybeans in the near term.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in Chicago, while mixed in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Weighing on the market was a lower close for Matif wheat futures and the break in the US Dollar Index above its 100 day moving average. However, it appears wheat is trying to stabilize at these lower levels after having become technically oversold.   

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.8 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 1.4 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 10.9 mb, which falls under the 16.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 351 mb, up 15% from last year.

  • Recent rains have brought improvements to drought conditions for both winter and spring wheat. As of July 29, according to the USDA an estimated 30% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought, down 1% from last week. Spring wheat acres in drought declined 5% from last week to 38%.

  • Ukraine’s economy ministry has reported that their nation has harvested 15.5 mmt of grain. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.36 mmt; total grain harvest is expected to reach 53 mmt.

  • The Polish central statistics office is estimating their 2025 wheat harvest will total 12.8 mmt. If realized this would be a 3% increase year over year. Total grain production is anticipated at 25.4 mmt, which would be in line with last year’s figure.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

7-30 End of Day: Favorable Weather Caps Rallies; Trade Tensions Return to Focus

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher, breaking a three-day slide. The widening spread between September and December contracts led to profit-taking on that spread, offering support to the front end of the market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply lower, marking the fourth straight losing session. November contracts fell below $10.00 for the first time since early April, turning that level into potential resistance.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with losses in Chicago and Minneapolis contracts, while Kansas City posted slight gains. Continued strength in the U.S. Dollar is weighing on the wheat complex.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke a three-day lower price streak as the market pulled out minimal gains on the session. The spread between September and December had grown wide, and the market saw some profit taking on that spread, which supported the front end of the corn market.

  • Demand for new-crop U.S. corn has improved in recent weeks. Rising Brazilian corn prices — despite a record harvest — have made U.S. corn more competitive on the export market. Thursday’s export sales report is expected to reflect strong new-crop activity.

  • Analysts are increasingly projecting a jump in U.S. corn yields in the August WASDE report, with early estimates averaging near 185 bu/acre. A yield at that level could add 350–400 million bushels to the balance sheet, pressuring prices further if demand doesn’t keep pace.

  • Weather forecasts stay non-threatening into the first half of August. The combination of cooler than normal temperature and adequate moisture will help support the development of the crop into the finishing stages.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.059 million barrels per day — higher than the prior week, but slightly below year-ago levels. About 105.9 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol, still running behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections for the marketing year.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed sharply lower, marking the fourth straight losing session. November contracts fell below $10.00 for the first time since early April, turning that level into potential resistance. Improved weather forecasts and continued demand concerns remain key bearish drivers.

  • Both soybean meal and bean oil ended lower, but soybean meal continues to lag due to a global surplus. China, in particular, has excess meal supplies for feed use, raising concerns about export demand for U.S. soybeans this fall.

  • With the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause set to expire on August 12, officials are reportedly working to extend the agreement. However, progress on a broader trade deal remains elusive, and China’s limited cooperation casts doubt on their need for U.S. soybeans in the near term.

  • After factoring in import taxes, soybeans shipped from the U.S. Gulf are currently about $30/ton more expensive than Brazilian offerings. As a result, China has sourced nearly all of its soybean imports this year from Brazil and Argentina.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with losses in Chicago and Minneapolis contracts, while Kansas City posted slight gains. Continued strength in the U.S. Dollar is weighing on the wheat complex. However, with all three classes near oversold technical levels, the market may be attempting to establish a bottom.

  • SovEcon increased its Russian wheat production forecast by 0.6 mmt to 83.6 mmt — just above USDA’s 83.5 mmt estimate. Russian wheat export projections were also lifted by 0.4 mmt to 43.3 mmt, though that remains below USDA’s 46 mmt outlook.

  • According to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry, their nation has exported 1.3 mmt of grain since July 1, when the season began. This represents a 62% decrease from the 3.43 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. Of that total, wheat accounted for 487,000 mt which is down 66% year on year.

  • LSEG has kept their 25/26 wheat production estimate for Ukraine unchanged at 20.7 mmt. Average temperatures and drier weather are expected to prevail for the next couple weeks, which should aid harvest. In related news a locust invasion is threatening crops in southern Ukraine. The extent of the damage is not known at this time but is believed to be mostly affecting their sunflower crop.

  • The International Grains Council has reported the Russian wheat harvest is 37% done, but production is running about 22% below last year so far. However, harvest has been mostly in southern regions so far and yields are expected to be better in the northern areas.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Yesterday’s close below 588 support triggered this recommendation, as Grain Market Insider has been watching that level since early June as a Plan B signal to expand downside coverage on next year’s crop. This break of support puts 541 and 506 as the next potential downside risks. Using put options extends protection without committing additional physical bushels, while keeping the upside open should a bullish catalyst reverse wheat’s current trend.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Yesterday’s close below 584 support triggered this recommendation, as Grain Market Insider has been watching that level since early June as a Plan B signal to expand downside coverage on next year’s crop. This break of support puts 545 and 501 as the next potential downside risks. Using put options extends protection without committing additional physical bushels, while keeping the upside open should a bullish catalyst reverse wheat’s current trend.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Yesterday’s close below 584 support vs the July ‘26 KC contract triggered this recommendation, as Grain Market Insider has been watching that level since early June as a Plan B signal to expand downside coverage on next year’s crop. This break of support puts 545 and 501 as the next potential downside risks vs the July ‘26 KC futures contract. Using put options extends protection without committing additional physical bushels, while keeping the upside open should a bullish catalyst reverse wheat’s current trend. KC options are recommended as a cross-hedge given the high correlation between KC and Minneapolis wheat prices, and the higher liquidity in the KC options.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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7-29 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Test Recent Lows

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower, pressured by continued selling in the front-month September contract.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for the third straight session as August weather forecasts trend more moderate, easing supply concerns.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. Dollar and a falling Russian Ruble.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Lead by selling in the front month September contract, corn futures finished the day with moderate losses as sellers stayed in control as the market is looking for bullish news. September futures broke to new contract lows as the spread between September and December continues to widen, weighing on corn futures.

  • Trade negotiators from the U.S. and China, meeting in Stockholm, agreed to extend the current “trade truce,” though no formal trade agreement has been reached. Final approval rests with President Trump. If the extension is rejected, tariffs could revert to April levels — raising uncertainty around future ag trade.

  • As expected, the national corn crop rating declined 1 point to 73% good to excellent. While ratings in Southern states softened as crops near maturity, the key “I-states” (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) each improved by 1 point. This remains the second-highest crop rating for this week in the past 10 years, trailing only 2016.

  • Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, estimated the second crop corn harvest in Brazil has reached 66% complete, up 11% on the week. Harvest pace has improved over the past few weeks with improved weather as Brazilian producers are harvesting a record second crop corn.

  • Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as the crop moves past the pollination stages nationally.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as weather forecasts for August continue to trend to be more temperate. Traders are increasingly worried that the August WASDE could show higher-than-expected yields, raising the potential for a larger carryout amid continued weak export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil gained alongside a strong rally in crude oil.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions improving, with 70% rated good to excellent — up 2 points from last week and above last year’s 67%. The crop is now 76% blooming and 41% setting pods.

  • The 90-day tariff pause on Chinese goods is set to end on August 12, but today it was reported that US and Chinese officials would seek to extend this tariff truce. Unfortunately, it appears that a trade deal is not yet close, and China’s unwillingness to cooperate could signal that they will not be in great need of US soybeans this fall.

  • Yesterday, the USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. Dollar and a falling Russian Ruble. The Dollar hit its highest level in over a month, adding headwinds to the grain complex — wheat in particular.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat harvest is 80% complete, down 1% from both last year and the five-year average. As for spring wheat, the crop was rated 49% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Additionally, 92% of that crop is headed, and harvest is just underway at 1% complete.

  • European Union 2025/26 soft wheat exports are off to a weak start, down 64% from last year at just 803,300 metric tons, compared to 2.25 mmt at the same point in 2024.

  • Brazilian wheat planting is nearing completion. According to CONAB, through July 19 an estimated 96.9% of the crop has been sown, which is in line with last year. And in the region of Parana, where planting is complete, 82% of the crop is said to be in good condition.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-28 End of Day: Grains start the week mostly lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  •  🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week with modest losses as a less threatening weather outlook and expectations for a large fall harvest weighed on prices. The front-month September contract tested recent lows but held support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans finished lower for the second straight session, closing below all major moving averages. Weekend weather forecasts turned slightly less threatening, with more moderate temperatures and improved rain chances into August.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures showed relative strength to start the week. Despite weakness in corn and soybeans and a sharply higher U.S. Dollar Index, Chicago wheat managed a small gain, while Kansas City and Minneapolis posted only minor losses.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week with modest losses as a less threatening weather outlook and expectations for a large fall harvest weighed on prices. The front-month September contract tested recent lows but held support. Still, the weak close leaves the market vulnerable to further selling.

  • USDA announced flash export sales of corn on Monday morning. Mexico purchased 225,000 MT (8.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. In addition, Unknown destinations purchased 229,000 MT (9.0 mb) of corn, split with 35,000 MT (1.4 mb) for 2024-25 and 194,000 MT (7.6 mb) for 2025-26.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.522 MMT for the week ending July 24, near the high end of expectations. Total inspections are running 29% ahead of last year. With the marketing year ending August 30, exporters still need to ship 9.9 MMT in existing sales commitments.

  • Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as pollination wraps up.

  • In a move to support domestic farmers, Argentine President Milei announced a reduction in corn export taxes from 12% to 9.5%. The cut could make Argentine corn more competitive on the global market.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,610 contracts between July 15- July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 177,365 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day and closed below all major moving averages. Weather forecasts over the weekend shifted to be slightly less severe, going into August with more moderate temperatures and better chances for rain. Export inspections were not supportive, and there are concerns that demand will not keep up with the larger crop that is expected. Soybean meal led the complex lower while bean oil was higher.

  • USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.

  • China booked 22 to 25 soybean cargoes last week, all from Brazil. Year-to-date, Brazil has shipped 284 cargoes to China, Argentina 84, and none from the U.S. — raising further concern about export demand.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 21,412 contracts which reduced their net short position to 10,866 contracts. They bought back 12,105 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 55,326 contracts and bought 3,273 contracts of meal reducing their net short position to 129,743 contracts.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 21,412 contracts between July 15 – July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 10,866 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures showed relative strength to start the week. Despite weakness in corn and soybeans and a sharply higher U.S. Dollar Index, Chicago wheat managed a small gain, while Kansas City and Minneapolis posted only minor losses. Bullish key reversals in September and December Paris milling wheat offered support, and fund buying may have played a role — Friday’s CFTC report showed net short positions were reduced by 14% in Chicago and 8.4% in Kansas City.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled just 10.6 mb, falling short of the 16 mb weekly pace needed to meet USDA’s export forecast. Still, total inspections at 122 mb are running 6% ahead of last year.

  • The Ukrainian economy ministry has reported that their nation has harvested 10.3 mmt of grain this season. This is 45% under the 19.0 mmt collected at the same time last year. Wheat harvest in particular has reached 7.1 mmt versus 14.7 mmt a year ago.

  • The USDA ag attaché to Australia reported that widespread early July rains have improved wheat crop prospects in southern regions. With the extended forecast calling for continued favorable moisture, above-average wheat production is now expected.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,446 contracts between July 15 – July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 52,041 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,043 contracts between July 15– July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 43,959 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,291 contracts between July 15 – July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 11,288 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-25 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Across the Board to End the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market ultimately ended the week lower, continuing to face pressure from favorable weather forecasts across key growing regions.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week with losses despite this morning’s export sales announcement, which included a purchase by Mexico, as the market continues to face pressure from ongoing demand concerns stemming from the absence of Chinese buying.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat was not exempt from today’s market trends, closing lower alongside corn and soybeans, as it faced downward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw selling pressure to end the week as option expiration; favorable forecasts pressured the market, despite the announced corn export sales this morning. December corn finished the week 8 ¾ cent lower.

  • August corn options expired on Friday, and the market seemed pinned to the areas on larges open interest, which was the 400 September price and $420 in December.

  • Weather forecasts heading into early August remain largely non-threatening for corn crop development. The latest 8–14 day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures and normal to slightly above-normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt.

  • USDA announced two export flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. USDA announced a sale of 4.1 mb of corn to Mexico and 5.5 mb of corn to South Korea for the 2025-26 marketing year.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower going into the weekend with the November contract closing below all major moving averages with the 200-day now acting as resistance. Although trade deals and flash sales have occurred this week, market attention remains primarily focused on weather conditions, which have thus far been favorable for the crop. Both soybean meal and oil were lower as well.

  • The USDA announced an export sale for soybeans on Friday morning. Mexico stepped into the soybean export market and purchased 5.24 mb of soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • Though early in the soybean export campaign, 2025-26 soybean export sales have fallen behind the early pace set last year in the 2024-25 marketing year. With competition from heavy global supplies and the absence of China from the new crop soybean export market, demand concerns will limit price rallies.

  • For the week, August soybeans lost 29 cents closing at $9.98-3/4 while November soybeans lost 14-3/4 cents at $10.21. August soybean meal lost $6.20 to $267.80, but soybean oil managed to close higher by 0.67 cents to 56.49 cents. The trend with lower meal and higher soybean oil has gone on since August of 2024.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The grain complex remained under pressure, and wheat was no exception. U.S. wheat futures closed lower in tandem with Paris milling wheat, while a stronger U.S. dollar provided no support. The weakness in HRS contracts is somewhat surprising, given the USDA’s estimate of 43% of spring wheat areas are now in drought, up 7% from last week, and alongside reduced yield estimates for North Dakota. It is likely that technical momentum is keeping wheat under pressure for the time being.

  • The final North Dakota spring wheat yield, as evaluated by the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour, was pegged at 49 bpa. This compares with last year’s 54.5 bpa and comes after sampling 292 fields. This also falls well short of the current USDA estimate of 59 bpa.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported Argentine wheat sowing is 95.9% complete. This is a 3.1% increase from the week before. As it wraps up, an estimated 6.7 million hectares will be planted in total, up from 6.3 million last year.

  • The European Commission has updated their estimate of total EU 25/26 grain production, dropping it from 282.9 mmt in June to 278.4 mmt this month. This is largely due to expectations for a smaller corn crop. However, the soft wheat estimate did also decline from 128.2 to 127.3 mmt.

  • In a report from the USDA-FAS, the US ag attaché to Canada noted that their 25/26 wheat production could face risks due to drought. Wheat conditions in key growing regions are said to be subpar. Additionally, the FAS is forecasting total Canadian wheat production at 35.15 mmt, which would be just above last year’s production of 35.0 mmt; Statistics Canada will be out with their first production estimates of the year on August 28.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-24 End of Day: Positive Trade Developments Lift Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Recent trade developments gave a boost to the corn market today, with corn contracts closing higher across the board.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day higher despite a lackluster export report, as new trade developments provided enough support to keep prices in the green.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets closed mixed today on fairly favorable weather across key growing regions and a generally positive export report.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed higher today, supported by recent trade deal announcements and technical support levels. September futures closed back above the $4.00 level while the December contract looks to have found support near $4.15.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at 54 mb. Year-to-date commitments now total 2.760 billion bushels, which is up 27% from a year ago.

  • The USDA reported a correction of a previous export sale of 135k mt of U.S. corn to China. That sale was actually sold to South Korea, not China. Along with that sale the USDA also announced the sale of 285k mt of U.S. corn sold to unknown destinations.

  • Weather will continue to be the main driver of price action for corn futures. Recent rainfall across the corn belt has pressured prices recently. The 8-14 day outlook shows additional precipitation could be on the way for much of the Western belt, which may add some more downside risk for corn prices.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were higher to end the day after trading either side of unchanged throughout the session. Export sales were not particularly supportive, but ongoing trade deals both closed and still in negotiations were supportive. Expectations for large yields have kept prices from rallying on export news.

  • While soybean meal was lower to end the day, soybean oil was higher following crude oil. The general trend over the last few months has been gains in soybean oil and decreased in soybean meal prices as the country shifts to stronger demand for biofuels. This leads to larger soybean crush numbers but also creates a glut of soybean meal.

  • Today’s export sales were at the low end of trade expectations with increases of 5.9 million bushels in 24/25, and an increase of 8.8 million bushels for 25/26. Primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt. Last week’s export shipments of 13.3 mb were below the 17.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Expectations for a large crop and softening demand continue to weigh on new-crop balance sheets. Some analysts project 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks could rise to 510 million bushels — well above the USDA’s July estimate of 310 million — amid weaker domestic demand and export uncertainty.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat saw a mixed close today, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts ending steady to higher, while Minneapolis posted modest losses. A lack of fresh, market-moving news and another negative session for Matif wheat likely limited upside potential for the U.S. market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 26.2 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 28.0 mb, which exceeded the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 wheat sales commitments have reached 329 mb, which is up 12% from last year.

  • The second day of the Wheat Quality Council crop tour found an average North Dakota spring wheat yield of 47.1 bpa after sampling 139 fields. This is down 12% from the 53.7 bpa found on the second day a year ago. The USDA is estimating North Dakota’s spring wheat yield at 59 bpa.

  • According to their food secretary, India’s domestic wheat price and supply are at “comfortable levels”, with no need for the government to sell from state reserves into the open market. It is worth noting that India has done this in the past to combat inflation and high food prices.

  • Over the past couple of weeks, decent rainfall across the southern Canadian Prairies has helped ease early-season dryness and reduce crop stress. As a result, spring wheat production estimates have remained steady.

  • The Argentine ministry of agriculture has reported national wheat planting at 92% complete versus 93% at this time last year. Additionally, recent rains and improved soil moisture have led to some increased production estimates, with one private firm projecting a 1% increase in the crop to 20.2 mmt. For reference, the USDA is estimating Argentina’s wheat harvest at 20 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.