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7-2 End of Day: Grains Surge on Trade Optimism Ahead of Holiday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted strong gains Wednesday, supported by short covering and technical buying as traders squared positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply higher Wednesday, lifted by strong crush data, short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, and trade optimism following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam deal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted double-digit gains across all classes Wednesday, buoyed by short covering and spillover strength from soybeans amid rumors of renewed Chinese buying interest.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted strong gains Wednesday, supported by short covering and technical buying as traders squared positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.076 million barrels per day, down slightly from the prior week, but still enough to keep corn usage on pace to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • U.S. corn is regaining competitiveness on the global market as a weaker dollar and lower prices improve its value relative to South American offers. Brazil’s slower-than-usual harvest is also offering modest support.

  • StoneX raised their production forecast for the Brazil corn crop to 136.1 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from their last forecast.  USDA is still holding a 130 MMT projection.

  • Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report is expected to show corn sales ranging from 400,000–1.0 MMT (old crop) and 500,000–900,000 MT (new crop), following 1.46 MMT in total sales last week.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed sharply higher Wednesday, lifted by strong crush data, short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, and trade optimism following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam deal. Soybean meal and oil also posted solid gains.

  • The USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed soybean crushings for May at 203.7 million bushels. This was up 6.3% from the same period last year and up from the previous month. Crude oil production was 6.5% higher.

  • The new U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement allows U.S. goods to enter Vietnam tariff-free, while Vietnamese goods face a 20% tariff into the U.S. — a potential boost for U.S. ag exports.

  • In India, palm oil imports shot higher by 61% to hit an 11-month high for the month of June because of lower domestic inventories. This is bullish for all veg oils.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit gains across the board, likely following soybeans higher after rumors that China is looking to buy beans from the U.S. This may have caused some short covering in the grain markets. A weaker U.S. Dollar and earlier USDA cuts to harvested acreage also supported the rally.

  •  Forecasts call for a Canadian storm system next week, but rainfall may be patchy, potentially missing key areas in the southern and eastern Prairies. This dryness could lend support to spring wheat prices.

  • Argentina exported a record 23.5 MMT of grain in June, rushing to beat a tax hike on corn and soybean exports effective July 1. Wheat exports were not subject to the change, which may pressure prices going forward.

  • President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam Wednesday. While details remain limited, broader trade optimism added support to grain markets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-1 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Pressured by Ratings; Wheat and Soybeans Supported by Policy and Acreage Data

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower Tuesday, pressured by improved crop ratings and a lack of bullish catalysts. Nearby contracts hit new lows before paring losses, as soybeans and wheat ended higher.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a choppy session, supported by strength in soybean oil. Soy oil rallied on news of President Trump’s newly passed bill, which included favorable biodiesel provisions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the day lower on Tuesday as improved crop ratings and bullish news was just lacking in the corn market. Nearby corn future traded to new contracts lows before firming as both soybean and wheat markets finished with gains on the day.

  • Sellers remained in control following Monday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, which offered few surprises. Strong crop ratings and a building global supply outlook continue to weigh on sentiment.

  • The USDA saw a 3% jump in crop ratings in Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report to 73% G/E. The market expectation was for unchanged ratings for the week. With the improved crop ratings, market participants are leaning to corn yield to be above trend line yields at this point.

  • The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022, helping keep U.S. corn exports competitive relative to South American supplies.

  • The weather remains friendly for the development of the corn crop. Long range weather models are forecasting a return to a moderate temperature pattern and still above normal rainfall going into the second half of July.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher Tuesday, supported by gains in soybean oil following the passage of President Trump’s new bill, which includes favorable biodiesel provisions. November soybeans found support near $10.15, while soybean meal ended lower, marking new yearly lows.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace. Summer weather will be the important factor going forward.

  • Monday’s USDA report was mostly neutral. Soybean acres were pegged at 83.38 million, in line with expectations but well below last year’s 87.05 million. Stocks were slightly bearish at 1.008 billion bushels, up from 970 million last year.

  • Italy announced plans to boost U.S. soybean imports to help address trade imbalances, and India is reportedly nearing a trade agreement with the U.S.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.

  • USDA crop condition ratings showed winter wheat at 48% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week. Harvest progress reached 37%, trailing both last year’s 52% and the five-year average of 42%. Spring wheat was rated 53% G/E, also down 1%, with 96% emerged and 38% headed.

  • Argus Media’s latest estimate pegs Ukrainian 25/26 wheat production at 21.9 mmt, down from 23.7 mmt previously. This would also be down 2.5% from the 24/25 season. The update comes after a virtual crop tour in June.

  • Ukraine finished their export season on June 30, with a total of 40.6 mmt of grain shipments. That is down about 21% from last year’s total. Wheat in particular accounted for 15.7 mmt of exports, which was down 15% year over year.

  • According to an announcement from the Rosario Grain Exchange yesterday, Argentina’s dry and cool weather forecast should boost planting of the 25/26 wheat crop. Additionally, yields are expected to increase due to good soil moisture levels. The RGE expects planted area to reach 7.1 million hectares, up from 6.9 million last season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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6-30 End of Day: USDA Data Comes in Near Expectations – Grains End Monday Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with nearby contracts lower and deferred months higher. USDA reports leaned slightly bearish, but modest acreage keeps upside potential if weather turns adverse.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.

  • The USDA Acreage report pegged planted corn acres at 95.2 million, slightly below expectations and down 120,000 from March — largely neutral to trade ideas.

  • June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks came in at 4.644 billion bushels, matching expectations and 350 mb below last year, underscoring strong old-crop demand.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.370 MMT (53.9 mb), keeping the pace 29% above last year and ~140 mb ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA’s export target with eight weeks left.

  • The weekly crop conditions report will be released on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for conditions to remain unchanged at 70% G/E — a five-year high for this point in the season.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with July and August contracts finishing lower while deferred months closed higher. July soybeans are now in delivery and expire July 14. The USDA reports were largely neutral with a slightly bearish tilt, though modest acreage keeps upside potential intact if weather turns threatening. Both soybean meal and oil posted gains.

  • USDA pegged planted acreage at 83.38 million acres, nearly matching expectations (83.66 ma) but well below last year’s 87.05 ma. Grain stocks came in at 1.008 billion bushels vs. 970 million last year — slightly bearish but within range.

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 8.3 million bushels, soft for the week, but cumulative inspections for 2024/25 are now at 1.685 billion bushels — up 10% from last year. USDA projects exports at 1.850 bb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and 2,999 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news. Mixed closes in corn and soybeans offered no spillover strength.

  • USDA pegged all wheat acreage at 45.5 million acres — slightly bearish. While below last year’s 46.1 ma, it came in 100,000 acres above both the March intentions and average trade estimates.

  • Quarterly wheat stocks were notably bearish at 851 million bushels—above the high end of trade expectations and well above last year’s 696 mb.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were 16 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 47 mb, which is down 8% from last year. Inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 1% from the year prior.

  • On a bullish note, Argentina is said to need more moisture for establishment of their winter wheat crop. There is not much precipitation in the forecast, except for scattered showers this weekend. It is a similar story for Australia, with winter wheat areas too dry.

  • Western Europe continues to endure heat and dryness early this week, with some relief expected midweek.

  • According to a German farming association (DBV) estimate, their nation’s 25/26 grain harvest is expected to total 40.1 mmt, compared to 39 mmt the year prior. This 2.8% increase may be partially due to increased winter crop plantings. Good conditions in the fall allowed for this increase, and 2.78 million hectares of winter wheat were said to be planted.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following Friday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale.  As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-27 End of Day: Grains Rebound Ahead of USDA Report and Weather Shift

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, ending the week with moderate to strong gains. Support came from short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, though December corn still finished the week down 14 ¼ cents.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybean futures closed higher on Friday, breaking a five-day losing streak. The rally was supported by updated European weather models pointing to a hotter, drier July outlook, along with likely short covering ahead of the weekend.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, closing the week with moderate to strong gains. A weaker U.S. dollar, short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, and July first notice day helped lift the market. Despite Friday’s rebound, December corn still ended the week down 14 ¼ cents.

  • Much of Friday’s strength was likely tied to pre-report positioning and short covering. The trade expects planted corn acres as of June 1 to total 95.35 million, slightly above the March estimate of 95.3 million. However, the wide range of analyst estimates (93.8 to 96.8 million) adds potential for volatility when the report is released.

  • Argentina will be reinstalling their export taxes on July 1, increasing the costs of Argentina ag products. The taxes were originally dropped to promote demand and raise revenue.

  • Weather forecasts remain favorable for crop development into early July, with near-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall expected. However, some models are now introducing hotter conditions for mid-July, which could impact pollination.

  • New-crop corn sales have picked up recently. Last week saw 12 million bushels in export sales, while Mexico added 25 million bushels of new-crop purchases during the week.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, this week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended higher Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak. Support came after the European weather model shifted overnight, projecting a hotter and drier July than previously expected. Additionally, short covering ahead of the weekend likely added to the strength. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil remained under pressure.

  • Soybean meal continues to face global headwinds, with increased crush capacity in both the U.S. and South America leading to abundant supplies. The August soybean meal contract has dropped $20 per ton over the past two weeks after breaking technical support, and this week marked the lowest price levels since 2016.

  • Looking ahead to Monday, USDA will release its updated Acreage Report. While expectations are for soybean acreage to remain steady at 83.5 million acres, trade estimates range between 82.0 and 85.0 million, leaving room for a surprise.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.For the week, July soybeans lost 40 1/4 cents, settling at $10.27 3/4, while November fell 36 cents to $10.24 3/4. July soybean meal dropped $13.00 to $271.10, and July soybean oil slipped 2.02 cents to 52.45 cents. First notice day for July grain contracts is June 30, with expiration on July 14.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support this week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat, strength in corn and soybeans, and optimism around potential progress in U.S.-China trade discussions, prompting a technical bounce.

  • Attention now shifts to Monday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports. Pre-report estimates peg U.S. wheat stocks at 835 million bushels, significantly above last year’s 696 mb. All-wheat planted acreage is expected to remain unchanged from March at 45.4 million acres — if realized, the second smallest total since 1919.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is 73% planted. This is slightly behind last year’s pace, but above the five-year average, as dry weather has allowed sowing to progress. However, it is being reported that both Argentina and Australian wheat corps are in need of moisture.

  • Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat acreage at 26.925 million acres, a reduction from March’s 27.475 million and below trade expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.809 million acres, also down from March (19.4 ma) and under the Bloomberg survey estimate of 19.2 ma.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following yesterday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale.  As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-26 End of Day: Grains Face Downside Pressure Once Again

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn prices were pressured again for a fifth straight session on bearish weather and lack of bullish news.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybeans closed lower as sellers remain active with beneficial rainfall for much of the growing areas throughout the US.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets continue to see weakness despite a three-year low on the dollar index today. Bearish weather and geopolitical risk cooling off are creating pressure on wheat prices.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • While the selling pressure seemed to slow on Thursday, the corn market still placed new contract lows and finished lower for the fifth consecutive session. Continued weakness in the wheat market and lack of a weather threat keep buyers mostly on the sideline again.

  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 19, US exporters posted new sales of 741,200 MT (29.2 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year and 305,500 MT (12.0 mb) for 2025-26. With today’s sales, this puts the total sold for the 2024-25 marketing year at 2.660 billion bushels. This is 99.4% of the USDA target of 2.675 BB with 10 weeks left in the marketing year.

  • The mmarket may be starting to position for Monday USDA Planted Acres report. Expectations for corn acres as of June 1 to be 95.4 million acres, up 100,000 acres from the March projection of 95.3 million. The range of analyst estimates is wide from 93.8 – 96.8 million acres. The wide range adds to the potential volatility before Monday’s report.

  •  Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats. 

  • The prospects of lower interest rates has pressured the US dollar. On Thursday, the US dollar index traded to its lowest level since February 2022 which should help support commodity prices.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled through June, recently breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap after the roll to September. A close above $4.46 would open the door to resistance near $4.65. On the downside, support lies at $4.20, with a weekly break below that exposing a potential move to $4.08.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the fifth consecutive day as selling pressure continues on good, wet weather through the Corn Belt and a general bearish tone from the funds. Soybean meal finished the day lower while soybean oil was higher along with crude oil.

  • Today’s export sales report came in better than expected with an increase of 14.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 5.7 mb for 25/26. This was above last week’s sales and up from the prior 4-week average. Top destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Egypt.

  • Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 13.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.850 bb for 24/25. In more friendly news, the USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 tons of US soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. However, with this week’s break below support at 1032.50, the next downside target shifts to the April low at 970.25.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat sustained yet another round of losses during today’s session, shrugging off support from a sharply lower US Dollar Index. A combination of poor export sales, winter crop harvest pressure, and another lower close for Matif wheat all weighed on prices. On a positive note, wheat is nearing oversold territory on some technical indicators, which could mean that a bottom is near.  

  • The USDA reported an increase of 9.4 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 9.4 mb, which falls under the 15.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 825 mb. Total sales commitments for 25/26 are now at 242 mb, up 8% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of June 24, an estimated 20% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 6% from a week ago. Spring wheat acres in drought also saw an uptick of 3% versus last week to 25%. For reference, only 5% of spring wheat was in drought at this time last year.

  • IKAR reportedly increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 700,000 mt to 84.5 mmt. For reference, both the USDA and SovEcon are projecting the Russian wheat harvest at 83 mmt; SovEcon also just raised their forecast by 200,000 mt.

  • The International Grains Council has issued a new world wheat production forecast for the 25/26 season, raising their estimate by 2 mmt to 808 mmt. This is now more in line with the USDA’s estimate of 808.6 mmt.

  • In a survey from Bloomberg, the average guess for Canadian all wheat planted area is expected at 27.7 million acres, with a range of 26.0 to 28.5. This would be up 200,000 acres from Stats Canada’s estimate in March, and up 900,000 from 2024.

  • One private research firm is pegging Chinese 25/26 wheat production at 141.7 mmt, which is unchanged from their last update. However, this is despite drought in southern China. It is said that irrigation in these areas helped to keep wheat conditions satisfactory, while adequate moisture in northern areas will help offset any losses in the south.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-25 End of Day: Grains Slide as Sellers Stay in Control Ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Sellers remained in control for a fourth consecutive session Wednesday, with corn futures posting moderate losses and fresh contract lows. A combination of favorable weather, strong U.S. crop potential, and record Brazilian production continues to keep buyers sidelined.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • New upside target added.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers maintained control of the grain market for the fourth straight session, and corn futures finished with new lows and moderate losses. Between good weather, large Brazil and new crop U.S. corn crop potential, buyers are still on the sidelines.

  •  Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new corn sales to range from 500-1.2 MMT for cold crop and 100,000 – 350,000 MT for new crop. 

  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.081 million barrels per day, down from 1.109 mbpd the previous week. An estimated 104.8 million bushels of corn were used — slightly lower week over week but still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual ethanol demand target.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled through June, recently breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap after the roll to September. A close above $4.46 would open the door to resistance near $4.65. On the downside, support lies at $4.20, with a weekly break below that exposing a potential move to $4.08.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather. July soybeans have lost 42 3/4 cents this week, while November is down 42 1/4 cents. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal leading the decline.

  • Crude oil began to recover slightly today following the tensions and then apparent cease fire agreement between Israel and Iran. Higher crude oil prices should benefit soybean oil and therefore the soy complex. In addition, the declining dollar is supportive to exports.

  • Looking ahead, the USDA will release its Acreage Report on Monday. Analysts expect soybean planted acres to remain near 83.5 million, though estimates range from 82.0 to 85.0 million acres. Corn acres are expected to rise slightly.

  • Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec raised its June soybean export forecast to 14.99 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 14.36 mmt.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. However, with this week’s break below support at 1032.50, the next downside target shifts to the April low at 970.25.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by weaker Matif wheat, declines in corn and soybeans, a general risk-off tone in commodities, winter wheat harvest pressure, and likely renewed fund shorting.

  • A Bloomberg survey suggests traders expect little change to U.S. all-wheat acreage in Friday’s USDA report, holding near 45.4 million acres. However, June 1 wheat stocks are expected to rise 20% year-over-year to 836 million bushels.

  • SovEcon increased their estimate of Russia’s 2025 grain production to 129.5 mmt. Wheat accounts for 83 mmt of that total, which is steady with the USDA’s forecast. In related news, Russian spring wheat conditions have improved – many areas have seen recent rainfall which has improved soil moisture levels.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level—and especially beneath the May low of 572.50—would open the door to further downside risk.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-24 End of Day: Grains Slide as Crude Drops, Selling Pressure Builds Across the Complex

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling pressure remained in the corn market on Tuesday, as futures posted new nearby lows. July and September contracts marked new contract lows for the second consecutive session.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive session, with July futures down 21 1/4 cents and November down 23 3/4 cents so far this week. Most of the pressure stems from weakness in soybean oil, which is following crude oil sharply lower.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex lower on Tuesday, with both winter wheat classes posting double-digit losses. Spring wheat also finished in the red but fared slightly better.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • New upside target added.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure remained in the corn market on Tuesday, as futures posted new nearby lows. July and September contracts marked new contract lows for the second consecutive session. Broad-based commodity weakness and favorable weather forecasts continue to keep buyers on the sidelines, allowing sellers to maintain control.

  • Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed corn conditions at 70% good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from last week and below trade expectations for steady ratings at 72%. This compares to 69% good-to-excellent at the same time last year.

  • Analyst expectations for Brazil’s second corn crop continue to rise. Agroconsult raised its forecast to a record 123.3 MMT, up 10.4 MMT from last month and 20.2 MMT above last year’s crop, despite delays from late planting and weather-related harvest setbacks.

  • Speculative hedge funds expanded their net short position by more than 20,000 contracts as of June 17, bringing the total to 184,788 contracts. Given recent price action, current estimates likely place the net short above 200,000 contracts.

  • The USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 630,000 metric tons of new-crop corn on Tuesday. Of that total, 554,500 MT is for the 2025-26 marketing year, with the remaining 57,600 MT for 2026-27.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
Front-month corn remains rangebound within a 30-cent band, mostly trading below resistance at 4.46. The recent roll to September futures left an unfilled chart gap. A close above 4.46 could open the door to a move toward 4.65, while support rests near the recent low of 4.20. A break below that would expose the next downside target at 4.08.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day with the July contract losing 21-1/4 cents and November losing 23-3/4 cents so far this week. Pressure has primarily come from declines in soybean oil as it follows crude oil sharply lower. Crude oil has lost nearly 13 dollars per barrel since yesterday’s high as Iran and Israel seem close to agreeing to a cease fire.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop conditions for soybeans unchanged with the good to excellent rating still at 66%. 96% of the crop is planted, 90% is emerged, compared to 84% last week, and 8% is blooming.

  • Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans. They bought 33,526 contacts which increased their net long position to 59,165 contracts. They bought 21,375 contracts of bean oil and sold 20,273 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat led the grain complex to the downside today. Both of the winter wheat classes sustained double-digit losses. Spring wheat, though also closing lower, was able to come away with less damage. The declines came despite a weaker U.S. dollar and deteriorating crop conditions, suggesting that traders are prioritizing macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers. Crude oil’s continued slide through key moving average support added pressure across the commodity space.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions fell 3% from last week to 49% good to excellent. Additionally, 96% of the crop is headed and 19% of the crop has been harvested. This is well below the 38% harvested last year and the five-year average of 28%. Spring wheat conditions also slipped 3% to 54% good to excellent; 93% of that crop is emerged and 17% is headed.

  • According to the Commitments of Traders report, managed funds bought over 31,000 wheat contracts across all three classes, reducing their net short to about 152,000 contracts. However, this data is through Tuesday, June 17, and it is likely they have re-established short positions over the past few sessions.

  • Analyst group ASAP Agri has estimated Ukraine’s 2025 wheat production will fall 3% year over year to 21.74 mmt. Additionally, they forecasted the yield at 4.37 mt per hectare, which would be down 3.5%. Finally, they projected Ukrainian 25/26 wheat exports at 15 mmt.

  • Brazil’s Emater/RS pegged 2025 wheat yields at 2.997 mt/ha, an 8% improvement over 2024. However, planted area is expected to decline by 10% to 1.198 million hectares. Total production is estimated at 3.591 MMT, down about 3% from last season.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

Above: Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level—and especially beneath the May low of 572.50—would open the door to further downside risk.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-23 End of Day: Grains Slide to Start the Week Amid Favorable Weather and Geopolitical Jitters

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures struggled again to start the week, as favorable weather forecasts and technical selling pressured prices. Front-end contracts pushed to new nearby lows, with December corn posting its lowest close since December.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed lower Monday, with deferred contracts leading the decline. Sharp losses in crude oil and soybean oil pressured the soy complex, reversing early session gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all classes on Monday, as broader commodity markets turned risk-off amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • New upside target added.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures struggled again to start the week, as favorable weather forecasts and technical selling pressured prices. Front-end contracts pushed to new nearby lows, with December corn posting its lowest close since December.

  • The outside market remained extremely volatile on Monday with a close eye on tensions in the Middle East. The crude oil market dropped significantly of the session highs after Iran retaliated against the U.S. air strikes over the weekend. The crude oil market traded over $8-9 of session highs with the thought the tension may de-escalate.

  • Despite building heat across the Corn Belt, timely rainfall continues to alleviate crop stress. The extended outlook remains favorable, with above-average precipitation and warm—but not extreme—temperatures expected, supporting crop development.

  • The recent rainfall totals across the Corn Belt have reduced the areas of drought slightly week over week. Total corn area that remains in some form of drought is at 17% according to the latest drought monitor maps.

  • USDA’s weekly corn inspections showed exporters shipped 1.476 MMT (58.1 MB) last week. Total inspections are now running 29% ahead of last year and remain well on pace to exceed the USDA’s 2024/25 export forecast.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
Front-month corn remains rangebound within a 30-cent band, mostly trading below resistance at 4.46. The recent roll to September futures left an unfilled chart gap. A close above 4.46 could open the door to a move toward 4.65, while support rests near the recent low of 4.20. A break below that would expose the next downside target at 4.08.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower with larger losses in the deferred contracts as sharply lower crude oil prices weighed on soybean oil. Soybean oil and crude began the day higher, but traders may be anticipating that the conflict with Iran may not translate to disruptions in oil distribution.

  • Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.

  • Friday’s export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.

  • China’s soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year-over-year in May, reaching 12.11 MMT, up from 8.81 MMT last year. U.S. soybean shipments to China totaled just 1.63 MMT, highlighting Brazil’s continued dominance during the peak export season.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all classes on Monday, as broader commodity markets turned risk-off amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend was met with reports of Iranian missile retaliation targeting a U.S. base in Qatar. Interestingly, crude oil fell $4–5 per barrel, likely due to the lack of damage to energy infrastructure and the continued operation of the Strait of Hormuz—nonetheless, crude’s weakness may have pressured grains as well.

  • USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 9.4 million bushels, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 31 mb—20% below last year’s pace and trailing USDA’s annual export projection of 825 mb (up 1% year-over-year).

  • Severe storms and tornadoes in North Dakota on Friday may have caused localized spring wheat damage, including reports of compromised grain infrastructure. Crop loss estimates are still unknown.

  • Egypt’s wheat imports have totaled just 4.9 MMT so far this year, according to its agriculture minister—a 31% decline year-over-year. As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, this pullback may have added pressure to the market.

  • Ukrainian grain exports for the season reached 40 MMT as of last Friday, down 19% from last year. Wheat exports totaled 15.6 MMT, off 14% year-over-year. Their export season concludes at the end of June.

  • On a bearish note, the European Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit has increased their estimate of EU soft wheat yields. Now seen at 6.08 mt per hectare, this is up 0.04 mt from their projection last month.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk. 

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-20 End of Day: Grains Slide into the Weekend on Risk-Off Trade and Profit-Taking

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted losses Friday alongside soybeans and wheat, as traders adopted a risk-off approach.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Friday, reversing from early session highs in a bearish technical move — taking out Wednesday’s high but closing below its low.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower Friday, following the broader grain complex. After Thursday’s sharp rally, profit-taking was likely a factor.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted losses Friday alongside soybeans and wheat, as traders adopted a risk-off approach. Despite a heat wave expected this weekend, the market remains pressured by forecasts calling for above-normal precipitation across the Midwest, limiting upside momentum.

  • USDA reported corn export sales of 35.6 mb for 2024/25 and 6.1 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 68.7 mb, well above the 44.5 mb weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s 2.650 bb target. Total 2024/25 commitments now stand at 2.631 bb, up 26% from a year ago.

  • Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3% to 50% complete, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. While yields are reportedly better than expected, the group maintained its production estimate at 49 MMT — slightly below the USDA’s 50 MMT and last year’s 51.6 MMT.

  • The latest EIA report showed ethanol production down 1% on the week to 326 million gallons — still exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA’s 5.5 bb corn use forecast. Ethanol stocks rose 1.6% from the previous week.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
Front-month corn remains rangebound within a tight 20-cent band, mostly trading below resistance at 4.46. The recent roll to September futures left an unfilled chart gap. A close above 4.46 could open the door to a move toward 4.65, while support rests near the recent low of 4.20. A break below that would expose the next downside target at 4.08.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower, reversing from highs earlier in the day. The move was a bearish reversal having taken out Wednesday’s high but closing below its low. Volume was likely lighter than normal following the holiday and going into the weekend. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.

  • Export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.

  • Chinese soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year over year in May, totaling 12.11 MMT versus 8.81 MMT last year. Imports from the U.S. were just 1.63 MMT.

  • For the week, July soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents closing at $10.68 while November soybeans gained 6 cents to $10.60-3/4. July soybean meal lost $7.80 to $284.10 while July bean oil gained a whopping 3.86 cents to 54.47 cents reaching the highest level since September 2023.

Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
Soybeans remain near major resistance that must be cleared to unlock broader upside potential. The macro trend remains sideways, with key resistance at the May high of 1082. A close above that level could target the open gap on the front-month continuous chart from last June, which spans 1161 to 1177. If July futures fail to break 1082, the risk shifts back toward rangebound or lower trade. Initial support is at 1032.5, with a close below that exposing the April low of 970.25 as the next downside risk.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower Friday, following the broader grain complex. After Thursday’s sharp rally, profit-taking was likely a factor, alongside a mostly non-threatening U.S. weather outlook that pressured corn and soybean futures, limiting wheat’s upside.

  • USDA reported wheat export sales of 15.7 mb for 2025/26. Shipments reached 13.4 mb, below the 15.6 mb weekly pace needed to hit USDA’s 825 mb export goal. Total sales commitments for 2025/26 stand at 233 mb, up 17% from last year.

  • Weather conditions in South America could provide underlying support. Heavy rains in southern Brazil are expected to delay winter wheat planting, while persistent dryness in Argentina may hinder crop establishment.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentine wheat planting at 60% complete, up 22% from the previous week. They maintained their production estimate at 20 MMT, which would be an 8% increase year-over-year if realized.

  • The Russian agriculture ministry is anticipating a 2025 wheat crop totaling 90 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of just 83 mmt. However, both the ag ministry and the USDA are anticipating Russian wheat exports near 45 mmt.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk. 

Other Charts / Weather

|

6-18 End of Day: Wheat Leads Grain Complex Higher Amid Harvest Delays; Corn and Soy Supported by Weather

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Thursday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn posted modest gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strength in wheat and growing concern over hot temperatures forecast for the weekend.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended slightly higher for a fourth straight session, holding near the top of their trading range. Support continues from weaker-than-expected crop ratings and stronger biodiesel demand.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat led the grain complex higher Tuesday, despite limited fresh headlines. Delays to the U.S. winter wheat harvest due to heavy rains in the southern Plains raised quality concerns and likely fueled technical buying and fund short-covering.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn finished modestly higher for a second straight day on support from the wheat market and concerns over higher temperatures moving in this weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production totaled 326 million gallons — up 5% from a year ago but slightly below last week’s 329 million. Ethanol stocks rose to 24.1 million barrels, compared to 23.6 million last year.

  • LSEG trimmed its Ukraine corn production forecast by 1.4% to 27.8 MMT, citing reduced planted area.

  • Chinese customs data showed May corn imports down 81.6% year-over-year to 190,000 tons. Year-to-date imports are down 93.7% at 630,000 tons, as China continues to curb foreign grain purchases.

Corn Futures Continue to Trade Within Recent Range
The front-month July contract continues to trade within a tight range, mostly between 434 and 446. A close above 446 would open the door to the next upside opportunity at 465.  On the downside, support sits at the June 10 bullish reversal low of 429.25. A close below that level would make 408 the next downside risk to watch.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A new cash sale target of 1114 has posted.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher for the fourth consecutive close but remain near the top of their trading range. Poorer than expected crop ratings along with higher biodiesel requirements have been supportive. Soybean meal was lower, and bean oil was mixed with bear spreading pulling the front months lower.

  • China’s May soybean imports rose 26.2% year-over-year to 13.92 MMT, driven largely by South American supply — still a positive sign for global demand.

  • In the U.S., upcoming warmer weather may aid emergence, but crop conditions remain below expectations. Combined with reduced acreage, this could fuel further gains, with some analysts eyeing the $11.00 level.

  • In Argentina, a prominent crop scout increased their projections for soybean production by 1 mmt to 49.5 mmt citing good early yields. This number is relatively in line with the USDA’s expectations.

July Soybeans Pause Near Upper End of Recent Range
July still has major resistance to clear before broader upside opportunities can become more immediate possibilities. Macro trend remains sideways with resistance at the May high of 1082. A close over that resistance and the first upside objective could be the open gap on the front month continuous chart from last June. The gap starts at 1161 and ends at 1177. If July cannot clear 1082 then rangebound to lower trade remains the risk. First support is now at 1032.50. A close below that support and the April low of 970.25 would be the next risk. 

Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the upside leader in the grain complex today, despite a lack of fresh news. Heavy rains in the southern US have delayed winter wheat harvest and are also causing concerns about quality. This may have triggered further technical buying and fund short covering. Additionally, the market could be factoring in war premium due to elevated tensions in the Middle East.

  • Strength in Paris milling wheat supported U.S. prices. September Matif wheat closed six euros higher, breaking through and finishing above the 21-, 40-, and 50-day moving averages — marking a two-and-a-half-week high.

  • According to Chinese customs data, wheat and wheat flour imports for the month of May were down 70.1% year on year, at 560,000 mt. Meanwhile, year to date imports were down 80.1% year on year at 1.61 mmt.

  • German ag co-op DRV raised its 2025 total grain harvest forecast to 41.4 MMT (from 40.7 MMT), up 6% from 2024. Wheat production is now pegged at 21.5 MMT, up from 21.0 MMT last month.

  • The Russian wheat export duty for the period of June 18-24 has declined from 652.5 to 566 Rubles per mt. This represents a 13.3% decrease. For the same timeframe, the barley duty is zero, but increased on corn from 359.9 to 397.3 Rubles.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Breaks Out of Recent Range
A strong breakout above longer-term moving averages and the upper end of the recent range signals bullish momentum. Initial support is at last week’s low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash.

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 639.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 535.75 support.  As long as the September contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities.  If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Plan B downside stop added at 549 support. As long as the July ’26 contract continues to hold above this support will remain patient for better opportunities. If this support breaks then another cash sale will be recommended as further downside could follow.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Finds Resistance at the 50-Day
July closed right at the 50-day moving average today following a strong bullish reversal off today’s low. Closing over today’s high would make the 200-day at 567 the next immediate target.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Rallies Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures surged through resistance this week, setting up 660 as the next upside target. Key support lies at this week’s low and the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that zone — and especially below the May low of 572.50 — would signal the next downside risk. 

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather