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8-20 End of Day: Competitive U.S. Export Values Support Grains Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures edged higher Wednesday on light buying and continued demand support. USDA reported two flash sales Thursday morning as U.S. prices remain competitive globally.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans moved higher Wednesday as prices continue to consolidate above major moving averages.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago wheat futures rebounded from fresh contract lows Wednesday, with KC and Minneapolis contracts also finishing higher. The recovery was driven by oversold conditions and competitive U.S. FOB Gulf values, which are trading roughly $10 below Russian offers.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures edged higher Wednesday on light buying and continued demand support. September closed ½ cent firmer at 380, while December added ¾ cent to 404.

  • USDA reported two flash sales Thursday morning—Mexico purchased 125,741 MT (5 mb) and Colombia 100,000 MT (3.9 mb) for 2025/26—as U.S. prices remain competitive globally.

  • Pro Farmer pegged Nebraska corn yields at 179.5 bpa (vs. 173.25 in 2024, 166.3 three-year avg) and Indiana at 193.82 bpa (vs. 187.54 in 2024, 182.09 thirty-year avg). The tour is moving into western Iowa and Illinois today.

  • The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher Wednesday, with September up 2 cents at $10.15 and November gaining 2 ¼ to $10.36. In products, September meal rose $4.60 to $292 while September oil slipped 0.48 cents to 51.20. November soybeans remain above all major moving averages and continue to consolidate.

  • Pro Farmer reported Nebraska pod counts at 1,348.3 per 3’x3’ square, above last year. Indiana pod counts came in at 1,376.6, below last year’s 1,409.

  • Brazil’s antitrust regulator (CADE) suspended the 20-year “Soy Moratorium,” ordering traders to end compliance within 10 days or face fines. The pact had barred purchases of soy grown on land cleared after July 2008. July exports totaled 12.3 mmt (+9% y/y), with 78% shipped to China. The move could boost Brazilian soybean and corn supply, heightening competition with the U.S.

  • The American Soybean Association urged President Trump to prioritize soybeans in U.S.–China trade talks, warning that retaliatory tariffs could shut U.S. farmers out of their largest export market heading into harvest.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After setting a new contract low Tuesday, Chicago wheat rebounded with September up 7 cents to 505 ½. Kansas City and Minneapolis posted smaller September gains, up 1 ¼ to 500 ¾ and up 1 ½ to 570, respectively. The bounce reflected oversold conditions and U.S. FOB Gulf values trading about $10 below Russian offers.

  • SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.2 mmt to 85.4 mmt, above USDA’s 83.5 mmt. Ongoing upward revisions to Russian output have weighed on global values in recent weeks.

  • Ukrainian grain exports have reached 3.1 mmt since their export season began on July 1. This represents a 52% decline from the 6.4 mmt shipped during the same time last year. Of the total, wheat accounts for 1.73 mmt, which is down 44% year over year.

  • Widespread rains across key winter wheat areas in the past month have left soil moisture above normal, improving crop prospects. Additional favorable rains are forecast in the coming weeks.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 606.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 target has been lowered to 606.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 657 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 658 target has been lowered to 657.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

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8-19 End of Day: Grains Retreat Tuesday Ahead of Pro Farmer Tour Results

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures weakened Tuesday, with September down 4 ½ cents to 379 ½ and December 3 ¼ lower at 403 ¼. U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. New-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower Tuesday in sympathy with weakness in corn and soybeans during a broad risk-off trade. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw selling pressure on Tuesday as the front month September futures lost 4 ½ cents to 379 ½, and December futures traded 3 ¼ lower to 403 ¼.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported South Dakota corn yields at 174.2 bpa (vs. 156.5 last year, 144.1 three-year avg) and Ohio yields at 185.7 bpa (vs. 183.3 last year, 180.5 thirty-year avg). Nebraska and Indiana results are due this evening.

  • Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is 89.3% complete, up from 83% last week. Despite a record crop, farmer selling remains light due to low prices.

  • U.S. corn holds a strong price advantage, roughly 30 cents/bu under Brazil, keeping U.S. exports competitive as Brazilian farmers withhold sales.

  • The September corn options expire on Friday. The corn market may trade choppy going into options expiration as price flow to large areas of open interest for both September puts and calls.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures fell Tuesday after failing to break key resistance at $10.50 in November contracts. September closed 7 ¾ cents lower at $10.13, while November lost 7 ½ cents to $10.33 ¾.

  • USDA reported a flash sale to Mexico of 228,606 MT (8.4 mb) for 2025/26. Despite the sale, new-crop soybean sales remain at a 10-year low for this point in the season.

  • Pro Farmer found soybean pod counts above last year in both Ohio and South Dakota. Ohio averaged 1,287.28 pods per 3’x3′ plot (vs. 1,229.93 in 2024), while South Dakota came in at 1,188.45 (vs. 1,025.89 in 2024).

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent with 95% of the crop blooming and 82% setting pods, both on par with the 5-year average. Forecasts remain wet through the end of the month.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with lower corn and soybeans, in a broad risk off trade today. September Chi lost 4-1/4 cents to 498-1/2, while September KC lost 6-3/4 to 499-1/2. MIAX contracts did post small gains, despite an increase for the spring wheat crop conditions; the September contract gained 3/4 cent to 568-1/2.

  • USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 94% complete, up 4 points from last week. Spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 50% good/excellent, while harvest jumped 20 points to 36% complete.

  • Heavy rainfall in Argentina over the past 24 hours has boosted soil moisture for winter wheat, though excessive wetness is raising root rot concerns in some regions. In Brazil, CONAB pegs planted wheat area at 2.55 million hectares, down 16.7% from last year, but projects 2025 output at 7.81 mmt—just 1% lower—on expectations of a 19% yield increase.

  • LSEG commodities research has estimated global 25/26 wheat production at 801.38 mmt. This represents a slight bump of 0.3% from their last estimate; higher production forecasts for Russia and the EU were largely offset by declines for the U.S.

  • The state grain buyer of Egypt has made a deal to purchase at least 200,000 mt of French wheat in private deals. They also agreed to purchase smaller amounts from Ukraine and Romania. Last December, their state purchases were taken over by a military organization, who import primarily by private deals. In contrast, the previous state buyer, GASC, imported via international tenders.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 612.25 upside target was lowered to 608.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 549 downside Plan B sale stop has been cancelled.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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8-18 End of Day: Grains Trade Mixed Monday

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed mostly higher with modest gains, except for the September contract. Strong export demand and worries about dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt bolstered prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower after overnight losses and intraday gains faded into the close. November futures remain above all major moving averages but face resistance at $10.60.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed slightly lower after a subdued session, with ample global supplies keeping prices under pressure. Recent rains in the northern Plains likely delayed the U.S. spring wheat harvest.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed mostly higher with modest gains, except for the September contract. Strong export demand and worries about dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt bolstered prices.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons (4.9 million bushels) of 2025/26 corn to an unknown destination, reinforcing strong new-crop export sales despite China’s absence.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were toward the bottom end of expectations as U.S. exporters shipped 1.05 MMT (41 mb) for the week ending August 14. This total was below the 53 mb needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 2.820 bb. The marketing year ends at the end of August.

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, currently underway, is closely watched by corn and soybean markets. Yield estimates for Ohio and South Dakota will be released tonight, with final national yield projections expected later this week.

  • Drier and warmer-than-normal conditions in the eastern Corn Belt are accelerating corn crop maturation, supporting futures prices but raising concerns about potential yield reductions due to a rushed finish.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,364 contracts between August 5 – August 12, bringing their total position to a net short 176,114 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended lower after overnight losses and intraday gains faded into the close. November futures remain above all major moving averages but face resistance at $10.60. Soybean meal closed lower, while soybean oil tracked crude oil higher.

  • On Friday, NOPA crush numbers were released, and July crush jumped to 195.699 million bushels which was well above the average trade guess of 190.8 mb and was a six-month high for the month of July. It was up 5.6% from the June’s 185.27 mb.

  • Forecasts predict warm summer temperatures and sufficient moisture through the rest of the month, aiding soybean pod fill. The USDA may raise yield estimates in the next report, but lower export demand could increase ending stocks.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,660 contracts which reduced their net short position to 35,270 contracts. They sold 10,527 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 44,412 contracts and bought back 24,238 contracts of meal leaving them short 109,309 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 30,660 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 35,270 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed slightly lower after a subdued session, with ample global supplies keeping prices under pressure. Recent rains in the northern Plains likely delayed the U.S. spring wheat harvest.

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 14.5 mb, which brings total 25/26 inspections to 177 mb, up 4% from last year. Inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are projected at 875 mb, up 10% from last year.

  • IKAR raised its Russian wheat production estimate by 1 million metric tons to 85.5 million metric tons, compared to the USDA’s 83.5 million metric tons. IKAR also projects Russian wheat exports at 42.5 million metric tons, above the USDA’s 39 million metric tons, adding to global supply pressure.

  • Widespread rain is expected across Argentina’s wheat regions, with southern areas potentially seeing frost but minimal crop damage. Northern areas, where wheat is starting to head, could face damage if frost occurs.

  • According to Chinese customs data, their July wheat and wheat flour imports totaled 410,000 mt, which is down 48.3% year over year. Year to date total wheat and wheat flour imports are down a whopping 76.4% at 2.37 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 596 target was lowered to 594.25.

      • All targets are now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 612.25 upside target was lowered to 608.50.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,526 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 89,295 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 549 downside Plan B sale stop has been cancelled.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,508 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 50,555 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 12th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 755 contracts between August 5th – August 12th, bringing their total position to a net short 23,458 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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8-15 End of Day: Grains End Week with Gains Ahead of the Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn ended Friday’s session with broad-based gains, supported by strong demand and strength in the soybean market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures posted gains to close the day, supported by forecasts for drier conditions that raised concerns about late-season crop stress, giving the market a boost.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the week slightly higher, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and spillover strength from the corn market, though they lacked the momentum seen in corn and soybeans to close out the week.

  • To see updated U.S. and Global weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 28-1/4 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the week with buying strength, supported by a short-covering rally and technical buying. A firm demand tone, dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt, and strength in the soybean market also lent support. Despite shaking off pressure from a bearish USDA report, December corn futures ended the week down ¼ cent—marking the fourth consecutive week of lower trade.

  • Export demand has remained strong for new crop corn. Current corn sales on the books for the 2025-26 marketing year are the strongest in a decade and trending 208% above this time last year. U.S. corn should stay competitively priced in the near term and export sales should reflect the advantage.

  • With a record corn crop still in the forecast, market attention is turning to late August weather. Currently, the eastern Corn Belt is trending dry, raising concerns that continued dryness could trim top-end yield potential and push the crop to maturity too quickly.

  • The corn market has built an improved technical signal this week after the USDA report. December corn charts established a potential double bottom on Tuesday and Thursday lows. Today, Dec corn closed above the 10-day moving average. Technical strength likely triggered some technical short covering.

  • Next week could bring volatility into the corn market. Pro Farmer will run its annual crop tour from August 18-20, and the corn market will be watching the yield results. The September options expire on Friday, August 22, and markets may show some extra volatility into this event.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses ahead of the weekend. A drier forecast for part of the Corn Belt next week may have added support while significantly higher soybean oil prices also helped the soy complex, but soybean meal was lower.

  • NOPA soybean crush was released today and showed 195.699 million bushels crushed in the month of July which was a six-month high and was above trade expectations of 191 million bushels. Domestic demand remains firm for soybean oil, but large crush numbers are causing a glut of soybean meal.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

  • For the week, September soybeans gained a whopping 54-1/2 cents to $10.22-1/4 and took back all losses over the past three weeks. November soybeans gained 55 cents to close at $10.42-1/2. September soybean meal gained $6.80 to $283.40 while September soybean oil gained 0.47 cents to 53.18 cents.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Winter wheat futures closed slightly higher today, though spring wheat could not do the same. Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat just did not seem to find the same footing today as corn and soybeans. A lower close for Matif wheat did not offer any support, and neither did the lack of fresh bullish news today.

  • Western Australia’s grain association, GIWA, increased their wheat harvest estimate by 2.1 mmt to 11.5 mmt due to favorable growing conditions. Despite the increase, this would still be down about 1 mmt from last year’s crop. Nationally, the wheat crop is anticipated to be near last year’s production of 34 mmt.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry reports that their grain harvest has reached 24.8 mmt so far this season. This represents a roughly 13% decline from the 28.5 mmt harvested in a similar timeframe last year. Wheat accounts for 19 mmt of that total, compared to 21.7 mmt a year ago.

  • India has seen plentiful rains due to monsoons, which have helped to replenish water reservoirs. This should be beneficial for winter wheat, much of which relies on irrigation. India’s wheat crop is typically planted in October and November, and the nation’s farm secretary is expecting a higher planted area for winter crops this season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 594.25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 596 target was lowered to 594.25.

      • All targets are now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 612.25 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 upside target was raised to 612.25.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • Call buy target is now vs the December contract.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 658 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 661 upside sale target was lowered to 658.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The upside call buy stop target is now vs the December KC contract.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

|

8-14 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Across the Board Following Export Sales Report

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets saw weakness today, closing lower due to a disappointing export report and expectations of a larger-than-anticipated upcoming crop, both of which weighed on prices.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower as growing concerns over China’s reliability as a trade partner weighed on the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the trading day lower across all classes, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a lack of fresh catalysts to spark any upward momentum in the market.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 30-7/8 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed to lower in the session as prices consolidated at recent lows. Weaknesses in other grains, export sales cancellations, and the prospects of large supplies limit the upside in the corn market.

  • The USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning, and it brought a mixed bag of information. Sales for the 2024-25 marketing year hit a market year low with net reductions of 88,700 MT (3.5 mb). While a few new sales occurred, they were offset by 601,200 MT (23.7 mb) of reductions. The marketing year ends at the end of the month, what can’t get shipped is either canceled or rolled to 2025-26. New crop sales remain strong with sales of 2.048 MMT (80.7 mb). 

  • USDA announced flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. South Korea to purchase 136,000MT and Spain added 132,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year. U.S. corn export prices will remain competitive moving into the fall months as the market works through a potential record supply of corn.

  • The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB raise their expectations for the Brazil corn crop by 5 MMT on Thursday morning to 137 MMT crop (5.398 BB), which is a record production. USDA forecast the Brazil crop at 132 MMT on Tuesday WASDE report.

  • Corn prices will likely stay pressured, or rallies limited as both the U.S. and Brazil are producing record corn crops. The large volume of supply in the global corn market will take time to digest as the corn market is currently in a supply driven bear market and demand will be the key.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower following three days of large gains as weakness in soybean oil weighed on the complex along with concerns over export demand and China as a trade partner. Despite the losses, November futures closed above all major moving averages. Soybean meal ended the day lower as well.

  • Export sales were mixed for soybeans with a net cancellation of 13.9 million bushels for 24/25 and an increase of 41.6 mb for 25/26. New crop sales were better than expected. Top buyers were the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 19.6 mb were below the 26.9 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

  • In Brazil, soybean production is expected to rise by nearly 1 mmt to 170.5 mmt because of better than expected yields. The USDA has not yet increased production estimates for Brazil.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board. Today’s PPI report showed higher than expected inflation, which led to a jump in the U.S. Dollar, which ultimately weighed on wheat values. Additionally, a recent lack of fresh friendly news has made it difficult for wheat to rally.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 26.6 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls under the 17.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their 25/26 export goal of 875 mb. However, total 25/26 sales commitments have reached 404 mb which is up 24% from last year.

  • In an update from CONAB, they kept their Brazilian wheat production estimate unchanged at 7.81 mmt. This is slightly above the USDA’s guess of 7.5 mmt. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain Exchange has said that good rains are benefiting Argentina’s wheat crop, and their production estimate has been kept steady at 20 mmt.

  • After recent rains, spring wheat areas in drought as of August 12 have fallen to just 16% compared with 35% the week before. While the moisture may benefit later planted crops, it may also slow HRS harvest and potentially cause quality concerns. In addition, winter wheat areas in drought declined 1% to 29% over the same time period.

  • According to DRV, a German ag co-op group, Germany’s 2025 grain harvest is now estimated at 43 mmt, up from 41.7 mmt previously. This would be a 10% jump above the 2024 crop, if accurate. Wheat production specifically is now seen at 22.4 mmt, compared with 21.6 mmt before.

  • The finance and agriculture ministries in China have allocated 1.1 billion yuan (the equivalent of over $153 million USD) in disaster relief funds. The goal is to stabilize grain production in major growing regions.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 599.75 target was lowered to 596.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 608.50 upside target was raised to 612.25.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 661.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

8-13 End of Day: Grain Markets Close Mixed as Traders Weigh USDA Data

ByGrain Market Insider

We are excited to offer you a new way to follow the markets! While CME Group policy changes mean our daily updates will no longer show pricing data, you can now explore our interactive quote board, featuring up-to-date charts to help you track market trends.

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: The corn market finished higher today, as traders continued to digest yesterday’s report and found additional support from strength in the other grain markets.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended Wednesday’s trade higher, as traders continued to draw support from yesterday’s report and optimism over a potential trade deal with China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat trade ended mixed, struggling to gain momentum following yesterday’s lackluster USDA report for the wheat markets.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – yesterday the 420 puts closed at 30-7/8 cents.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market posted marginal gains on Wednesday as the market continues to process Tuesday’s negative USDA crop production report forecasting a record corn crop for this fall. Strength in other grains helped provide support to the market. 

  • Even with a yield forecast well above expectations, the addition of 2.1 million acres to the corn crop was the biggest weight on prices and potential supplies ballooned. The corn market is in a supply driven bear market, and demand will be the key to working through a burdensome supply outlook.

  • New crop corn export sales are off to a strong start with one of the best years in accumulated sales over the past two decades. As of July 31, new crop export sales commitments have totaled 11.77 MMT (433.2 mb). This is over twice as much corn sold last year for the 2024-25 marketing year at this time window.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales report tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales for the 2025-26 marketing year to range from 900,000 – 2.4 MMT for the week ending August 7.

  • Participants in the corn market will be watching crop tours and “boots on the ground” tours to determine if the USDA yield is accurate. Finishing weather and disease pressure are going to be components in the final yield level puzzle.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the third consecutive day with the November contract posting its highest close since July 3 and filled the gap on the chart for that day. For the week, November soybeans have gained a whopping 56-3/4 cents so far. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • The U.S. is reportedly losing out on Chinese soybean sales as Brazil fills their needs during this key export period for the U.S. President Trump has tried to encourage China to buy, but they have been absent. In addition, U.S. soybeans are now much more expensive than Brazilian offers.

  • Highlights from yesterday’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade estimate of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World-ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.

  • Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today, not able to find strength in either direction. This is likely the result of a somewhat neutral report yesterday, along with a lack of fresh impactful news. While September Chicago did make a new low today, it has not breached support at the five-dollar level, yet. Wheat may continue to follow corn for the time being.

  • Early next week, Argentinian wheat growing areas are expected to see beneficial rains. Meanwhile, rain in the US northern Plains is expected to have a negative impact on spring wheat quality and may also slow harvest.

  • According to the Russian agriculture ministry, their 2025 grain harvest is 47% complete – an estimated 75 mmt of grain has been collected so far. Recently, they estimated that total grain output would reach 135 mmt.

  • SovEcon has increased their Russian wheat production estimate from 83.6 mmt to 85.2 mmt. Better than expected yields, along with higher acreage, are cited as the reasons for the uptick. Wheat planted area is now estimated at 26.9 million hectares versus 26.6 million hectares previously.  

  • European Union soft wheat exports reached 1.43 mmt as of August 10; the export season began on July 1. This total is down about 56% from the 3.28 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. The top importer was Saudi Arabia, followed by Nigeria and Algeria.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • The 599.75 target was lowered to 596.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 681 upside target was lowered to 608.5.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 662.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

|

8-12 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed After WASDE: Corn and Wheat Fall, Soybeans Gain

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets closed lower today, pressured by a larger-than-expected increase in yield in today’s Crop Production Report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean markets were the only grain to post gains today, supported by a bullish WASDE report that raised yield estimates.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets followed corn lower today, with all three classes posting losses, pressured by the latest WASDE report.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A surprise acre adjustment and a larger than expected yield adjustment on the August crop production report pressured corn futures to new contract lows as the market experienced sharp losses. Only the strength in the soybean market likely supported the corn market on the session.

  • The USDA increased corn planted acreage by 2.1 million acres to 90.7 million on the crop production report for August. In addition, raised the projected yield well above expectations to 188.8 bu/acre for this year’s corn crop. The surge in acres and yield projected for this year’s U.S. corn crop brought production to 16.742 BB, up 1.875 BB from last year as the U.S. is forecasted for a record crop on record acreage.

  • The total of 16.742 BB is a large supply. The USDA made strong demand adjustments totaling 545 mb for exports, feed usage, and ethanol usage to cut into that corn supply, but new crop carryout is projected at 2.117 BB, well over market expectations.

  • The combination of corn supply and demand puts the stocks-to-use ratio at 13.3% or approximately 48.5 days of available supply. This is a heavy ratio, and the largest in U.S. corn since 2018-19 marketing year.

  • Export demand remains strong as Mexico was a purchaser of corn on a flash sale overnight. Mexico added 315,488 MT (12.42 mb) of corn split between this year and next marketing year. 20,830 MT for 2024-25, and 294,658 MT (11.6 MB) for 2025-26. U.S. corn will stay very competitive in the global export market well into the end of the year at these price levels.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher fueled by a bullish WASDE report. The November contract closed above all major moving averages for the first time in nearly a month and traded within a 41-cent range for the day. Both soybean meal and oil were higher, but not significantly.

  • Highlights from today’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade guess of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point to 68% good to excellent which is the same rating seen a year ago at this time. 91% of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods, both in line with last year’s progress.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across all three classes today, with Chicago futures posting new contract lows. Market attention was focused on the monthly WASDE report, which leaned bearish for winter wheat but offered slight support for spring wheat. Overall, the report was relatively neutral for the wheat complex. However, weakness in the corn market likely dragged wheat lower as a follower.

  • On today’s report, the USDA lowered 25/26 wheat production by 2 mb from last month, to 1.927 bb. Winter wheat production increased 10 mb to 1.355 bb, which was more than expected, whereas spring wheat production fell 19 mb to 485 mb. U.S. exports were also raised by 25 mb.

  • U.S. wheat ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 851 mb, but for 25/26 they were cut by 21 mb to 869 mb. Globally, 24/25 carryout declined by 0.9 mmt to 262.7 mmt, and for 25/26 it was dropped buy 1.4 mmt to 260.1 mmt.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvested advanced 4% to 90% complete. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 49% good to excellent and 16% of that crop is harvested, up from 5% last week.

  • According to data from Rosstat, Russia’s 2025 planted area decreased by 1.1%, and grain areas in particular fell by 5.1%. Wheat areas specifically declined from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares.

  • Data from Cepea indicates that Brazilian wheat imports are on the rise, while domestic prices are falling. The amount accumulated in the past 12 months is said to be about 20% above the previous 12 months. In addition, Secex reports that Brazil imported 616,910 mt of wheat in July, up 26.7% from their June imports.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The 681 upside target was lowered to 608.5.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 662.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

|

8-11 End of Day: Grains Position Ahead of USDA’s WASDE Report Release

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week on a positive note, ending the day with gains, supported by export inspections that came in above market expectations.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Monday, supported by headlines that President Trump urged China to significantly increase its soybean purchases, fueling hopes for stronger export demand.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended Monday’s session mixed, as traders positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report while being pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market began the week with modest gains, supported by strength in the soybean market and friendly corn demand , as traders positioned ahead of Tuesday’s August WASDE report.

  • The August USDA Crop Production Report, set for release Tuesday, is expected to include potential yield adjustments that could impact market direction. Analysts peg average corn yield at 184.3 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre above trend, with estimates ranging from 182.5 to 188.1 — setting the stage for volatility. In addition, the market will be closely watched for demand-side adjustments, as new crop ending stocks are expected to rise to 1.900 billion bushels, up from 1.660 billion. The projected increase in production is anticipated to contribute to the larger carryout.

  • USDA did not announce any flash sales of corn on Monday but did release weekly export inspections. For the week ending August 7, US exporters shipped 1.492 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn, above market expectations.

  • Corn export shipments out of Brazil last week were at 1.71 MMT, which was down 0.9% under last week. Corn shipments out of Brazil to date for August at 7.58 MMT, up 18% over last year as Brazil wraps up harvest of a record second corn crop.

  • Still in search of a deal with China, President Trump signed an executive order on Monday afternoon to extend the tariff deadline with China until November 9. China is still absent from the U.S. corn and soybean export market going into the 2025-26 marketing year.s.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,435 contracts between July 29- August 5, bringing their total position to a net short 173,750 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, with the November contract recovering a significant portion of the losses from the past two weeks after President Trump urged China to ‘quadruple’ its soybean purchases. Shortly after the market closed, it was announced that the U.S. would extend its pause on Chinese tariffs until November 9, providing additional time for trade negotiations.

  • Export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.

  • The August USDA Crop Production report will be out tomorrow and could bring yield adjustments to the soybean crop. Analysts peg average yield at 53.0 bu/acre, 0.5 bu/acre above the trendline, with estimates ranging from 52.0 to 54.0 bpa — setting the stage for volatility.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 29,619 contracts increasing their net short position to 65,930 contracts. They sold 11,661 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 54,939 contracts and 234 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,592 contracts.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 29,619 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 63,930 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed quietly, hovering near neutral, as traders weighed multiple factors ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report, where the U.S. wheat balance sheet is expected to show a slightly bullish outlook. However, today’s higher U.S. Dollar and lower close for Matif wheat likely limited upside for U.S. futures.

  • The average pre-report estimate of U.S. 25/26 all wheat production comes in at 1.925 bb, down slightly from the 1.929 bb estimated in July. When broken down by class, winter wheat production is expected to increase 4 mb, while spring wheat is expected to decrease 7 mb. Additionally, U.S. ending stocks are expected to fall 1 mb to 850 mb for 24/25, while for 25/26 the carryout is anticipated to decline by 5 mb to 885 mb.  

  • Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 13.4 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 161 mb, up 2% from last year. This is below the USDA’s projected pace; 25/26 exports are estimated up 3% from the year prior at 850 mb.

  • President Trump will meet this Friday in Alaska with Russian President Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine, which will hopefully lead to a peace deal. There were also rumors that Ukraine’s President Zelensky would be in attendance, but at this time that has not been confirmed.

  • According to Rusagrotrans, Russia shipped 1.78 mmt of wheat in the month of July, which is down from the 2.8 mmt exported last year. Egypt was the top purchaser at 371,000 mt, followed by Turkey at 228,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia at 128,000 mt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • New upside sales target.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 15,445 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 80,769 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,783 contracts between July 29– August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 57,063 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,982 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 22,703 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

|

8-8 End of Day: Grains Under Pressure Ahead of Key WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn prices slipped into the weekend as early gains faded, marking the third straight weekly decline. Trade expects next week’s WASDE to peg U.S. corn yield at 184.3 bpa, up from 181 in July.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended lower Friday, erasing early gains as fund selling returned. Trade expects next week’s WASDE to peg soybean yield at 53.0 bpa and production at 4.37 bb.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat ended mixed Friday, with losses in Chicago and Kansas City offset by modest gains in Minneapolis. Spring wheat strength was likely supported by overnight storms in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies, along with expectations that next week’s WASDE may trim yield estimates.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sellers stayed in control of the corn market going into the weekend as prices failed to hold early session gains to finish with mild losses. Corn futures finished the week lower for the third consecutive week. September futures lost 6 ¾ and December futures lost 5 ¼ cents on the week.

  • Even with the U.S. dollar trending lower, ag commodities faced broad pressure from tariff concerns and fund selling, leading to a generally negative tone.

  • New crop corn demand remains firm, with USDA reporting a 125,000 MT sale to unknown destinations for 2025–26 delivery. Sales are running 28% ahead of last year and rank among the strongest starts in the past decade.

  • The August USDA crop production report, due Tuesday, could bring yield adjustments. Analysts peg average yield at 184.3 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre above trend, with estimates ranging from 182.5 to 188.1—setting the stage for volatility.

  • Weather outlooks call for above-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with weekend rainfall across the Corn Belt in focus. December corn futures have closed lower in 11 of the past 12 Mondays.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower to finish out the week. Futures were initially higher by as much as five cents but faded throughout the day as funds reinstated selling pressure. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil fell alongside crude oil.

  • Trade expects next week’s WASDE to peg soybean yield at 53.0 bpa and production at 4.37 bb, though the yield could be higher. Ending stocks are projected at 358 mb, with global stocks also seen rising.

  • Brazilian cash soybean prices have seen basis firming, making it difficult for importers to source soybeans out of Brazil. For the key fall months, U.S. soybeans are the better value on the export market, and there were whispers of Brazil end users looking to possibly source a few soybeans from the U.S.

  • Some weakness in the soy complex can be attributed to lower energies in general following an OPEC+ statement that they would increase oil production. This has been bearish for both crude oil and soybean oil.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended mixed Friday, with losses in Chicago and Kansas City offset by modest gains in Minneapolis. Spring wheat strength was likely supported by overnight storms in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies, along with expectations that next week’s WASDE may trim yield estimates.

  • Media reports suggest the U.S. and Russia have outlined a potential peace deal, possibly to be formalized at a summit next week, which would allow Russia to retain control of parts of eastern Ukraine.

  • IKAR has increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 84.5 mmt due to good yields in central areas. For reference, this compares to the USDA forecast of 83.5 mmt. In related news, the French agriculture ministry also raised their soft wheat production estimate by 0.5 mmt to 33.1 mmt and reported that harvest is 94% complete as of August 4.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentine wheat planting is now complete at 6.7 million hectares, up 400,000 hectares from last year. Early conditions are favorable, with 99% of the crop rated normal to excellent.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • New upside sales target.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

|

8-7 End of Day: Grain Markets Gain Ground on Supportive Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn markets ended Thursday’s trading session with modest gains, finding support from a positive export report that boosted market sentiment and helped offset recent downward pressure.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day on a higher note, supported by strong export sales and trader positioning ahead of next week’s WASDE report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets followed corn’s lead on Thursday, closing the day with gains across all three classes, supported by strong export sales that reinforced demand optimism.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.

      • For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw follow-through buying support after Thursday’s rebound from contract lows. A firm tone in export demand, highlighted by strong weekly sales and additional new sales announcements, helped underpin prices and boost market sentiment.

  • The USDA released the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. New crop corn sales remain very strong with new sales totaling 3.16 MMT (124.5 mb) for the week ending July 31, well above expectations, and the third highest total all time. A portion of the strong sales was the movement of 491,700 MT of sales reduced from old crop and rolled into new crop.

  • The corn marketing year ends on August 31, and the U.S. still has nearly 300 mb of old crop corn sales to ship. Export shipments will be key going into the end of the month, but it is likely any unshipped bushels will be shifted to new crop sales.

  • USDA announced two more flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. The USDA reported Mexico purchased 106,680 (4.2 mb) MT and Guatemala purchased 105,000 MT (4.1 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • Next Tuesday, August 12, the USDA will release the August crop production report with a potential yield adjustment. With the strong crop ratings, the average yield estimate by analysts is 184.3 bu/acre, up 3.3 bu/acre above trend of 181.0 bu/acre. The range of estimates is from 182.5 to 188.1. Such a wide range will likely bring volatility in the market going into that report.

Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, snapping a two-day losing streak and recovering all of Wednesday’s losses and then some. The rally was likely fueled by profit-taking on short positions by funds ahead of next week’s WASDE report, as well as support from strong export sales. In the products, soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil closed lower.

  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales exceed trade expectations with an increase of 17.2 million bushels for the 24/25 marketing year and an increase of 20.0 mb for 25/26. Top buyers were Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Germany. Last week’s export shipments of 25.3 mb were above the 16.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.

  • The weather forecast is likely to provide some support to the soybean market as August weather is key for the bean crop development. Temperatures are forecasted to run 4-5 degrees above normal across the corn belt over the next couple weeks. Rainfall is to remain near to above normal as well for the same time period.

  • Brazilian cash soybean prices have seen basis firming, making it difficult for importers to source soybeans out of Brazil. For the key fall months, U.S. soybeans are the better value on the export market, and there where whispers of Brazil end users looking to possibly source a few soybeans from the U.S.

Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes finished strong for a second straight day during Thursday’s trade. The rally was sparked by strong export sales and short covering before next week’s USDA WASDE report.

  • Weekly export sales for wheat totaled 27 mb, which was at the upper end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments are up 21% from last year and sit at a 5-year high of 378 mb.

  • Trade estimates for next week’s WASDE report have all wheat production down from 1.929 billion bushels last month to 1.922 billion bushels this month. Ending Stocks are also seen falling from 890 mb to 882 mb.

  • There are reports that President Trump, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy and Russia’s Putin are set to meet in the upcoming days to discuss a resolution to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • New upside sales target.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. No new active sales targets to report yet.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.