• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better than expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply.  War continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With a world stock to use ratio at its lowest level in 8 years, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.  At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.     
• Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to buy July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: The K.C. wheat market continues its sideways trend between 733 – 780, with the low end of the range acting as initial support, while the upper end of the range acts as initial resistance. If prices break out to the upside, psychological resistance sits around the 800 area. While below the market, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level. Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• Grain Market Insider recommends buying July ’24 660 K.C. wheat puts on a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop for approximately 30 cents plus commission and fees. While weather has been a dominant feature of the market this year with dry growing conditions and harvest delays, slow export demand and cheap Russian exports remain major headwinds to prices. The market has turned lower in recent weeks and July K.C. Wheat has traded through a major support area around 738. Trading below 738 support signals that the major trend may be turning down and poses the risk that prices could erode further in the weeks ahead, possibly to the next level of support, the September ’21 low of 678. If the 678 level were to fail, next support could be the 560 – 573 level.  Buying July ’24 660 K.C. Wheat puts on a portion of your HRW wheat production should help protect future sales from further downside erosion, while still allowing for upside appreciation should the market turn higher.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September K.C. wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is testing the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows. Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, which is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830, if not, the next area of major support is near the September ’21 low of 670.

2023/24 Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September KC wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is poised to test the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows.  Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, and is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Aug. 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,976 contracts between Aug. 1 – Aug. 8, bringing their total position to a net long 5,257 contracts.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September KC wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is poised to test the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows.  Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, and is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales. At the same time, we continue to watch the bottom end of the range that prices have traded in since late 2022. A close below the bottom end would reduce the probability of getting to 950 – 1000 and would increase the risk of prices falling into the 600 – 650 range.    
• No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September KC wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is poised to test the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows.  Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, and is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830.

• We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales. As harvest winds down and more becomes known about this year’s crop with some reports of better-than-expected yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply. The war continues in the Black Sea region, Ukraine’s export capabilities remain uncertain, and dryness continues in key production areas of the world. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.
• No action is currently recommended for the 2024 crop.  Demand and supply concerns out of the Black Sea continue to dominate the market right now, and Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 817 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential change in trend with cheap supplies continuing to flow from Russia and Ukraine hampering US export demand. While prices continue to be volatile, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. The war continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 850 before considering recommending any additional sales, while also keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken.
• No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September KC wheat has retreated following the key reversal on 7/25 and is poised to test the 735 – 745 support area, which coincides with this year’s lows.  Additionally, the market is showing signs of being oversold, and is considered supportive if prices reverse higher.  If prices do reverse to the upside, overhead resistance lies near 830.