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Grain Market Insider: September 21, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Disappointing export sales, and expectations of higher interest rates for a longer period of time, as indicated by Federal Reserve comments yesterday, brought a pall over the markets with a “risk off” sentiment that sent the corn market lower alongside neighboring soybeans and wheat.

  • Poor weekly export sales helped drive the soybean market sharply lower as the November contract broke through its 100-day moving average to close below 1300 for the first time since late June.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were followers of soybeans to the downside as December Board Crush margins firmed a penny on the break. While meal sales for last week came in at the upper end of expectations, soybean oil sales came in as expected.  

  • Weak export sales and shipments that fell below the pace needed to reach the USDA’s goals added to the weakness in today’s wheat markets that were already feeling the strain of the higher US Dollar and interest rates, as all three classes of wheat closed lower led by the K.C. contracts.

  • As of this writing, the US Dollar index has posted a bearish reversal in today’s trade after reaching its highest level in 6 months. If it follows through to the downside, US commodities may find some relief in the export market.

  • To see the current US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for October, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Risk off trade on Thursday as the market saw fallout from the Fed’s commentary regarding holding a longer-term view of a high-interest rate environment. This brought selling across most equity and agriculture markets on the day. December corn gave back Wednesday’s gains, losing 7 cents on the session.

  • Weekly export sales for corn are still disappointing. Last week totaled new sales of 567,000 MT (22.3 mb). Current corn sales commitments for the marketing year are down 6% from last year, and the USDA is forecasting a gain in potential exports.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn overnight. Mexico bought 137,160 MT of corn, split at 121,920 MT for the 2023-24 marketing year and 15,240 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year. The total was 5.4 mb.

  • The International Grain Council (IGC) raised its yearly global corn stocks forecast. The IGC is forecasting global carryover stocks at 289 mmt, up 14 mmt from last year’s estimates, reflecting the increase in projected global production.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up, with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, and below its 100-day moving average, following a poor export sales report for last week, anticipation of a large Brazilian crop next season, and harvest pressure within the US. Both soy products closed lower today as well. 

  • For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 16 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24, which came in below the low end of the estimate range. Last week’s export shipments of 20.0 mb were below the 34.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates and were primarily to China, Japan, and Mexico.

  • Basis is expected to erode further into harvest as low water levels on the Mississippi River once again affect barge traffic. Heavy rains are expected from the northwestern Plains through Texas and Arkansas over the week which could help improve water levels.

  • While Brazil increased their estimated planted area of soybeans by 2.8% and are now expecting a new record crop of 162.4 mmt, there is an El Nino pattern developing which is already causing some dry weather in areas where soybeans were just planted. This dry weather could continue through the growing season.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The markets took a risk off posture today with lower closes in grains, livestock, some soft commodities, and, as of writing, crude oil is still positive but is about a dollar off the daily high. The negative tone today appears to be spurred on in part by yesterday’s Fed meeting in which they indicated that interest rates down the road would continue to increase.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 11.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.5 mb for 24/25. Each week 14 mb needs to be shipped to reach the USDA’s goal of 700 mb of exports, but last week’s shipments were only 10.9 mb.

  • The US Dollar Index made a new near-term high today and is hitting levels not seen since March. While it is overbought and may be due for a correction downward, it has been inching higher since mid-July, keeping constant pressure on the export market.

  • According to Sov Econ, their estimate of 2023 Russian wheat production was reduced to 91.6 mmt, versus 92.1 mmt, due to expectations for a reduced Siberian crop.

  • Ukraine’s Ag minister talked with the Polish Ag minister to discuss a resolution to the grain dispute between the two nations. Poland has banned imports from Ukraine to protect domestic prices, so the goal of the talks is to resolve the dispute on shipments.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While last week’s ethanol production tumbled well below expectations, the corn market was resilient and closed higher on the day with follow-through buying coming in part from Tuesday’s bullish reversal.

  • Support near the 100-day moving average held again today as soybeans garnered strength from higher meal prices and a flash sale of 120k mt to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.

  • Soybean meal lent support to soybeans as it uncovered follow through strength and technical buying from Tuesday’s bullish reversal. While soybean oil continued its move lower in concert with lower palm oil, as falling open interest implies traders likely liquidated long positions.

  • Higher Paris milling wheat futures and a lower US dollar provided underlying support to the wheat markets which traded on both sides of unchanged prior to settling the day mixed, with Chicago and Minneapolis on the positive side alongside deferred K.C. contracts. While nearby K.C. closed lower on the day. 

  • The US dollar traded lower throughout the day in anticipation of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at the end of today’s meeting, but rallied on comments implying that another rate hike may be needed in the future, and they may remain elevated for some time. The lower dollar likely added some support to the grain markets, as it makes US exports more competitive in the world market. 

  • To see the current U.S. 3 – 4 week Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Additional short-covering and technical buying supported the corn market as the December contract closed 6 cents higher on the session. The friendly price action was a good follow-through from yesterday’s reversal higher in trade.

  • Ethanol production last week slipped to 94.7 million barrels, down from 100.4 million barrels the previous week, though still well above last year’s production at 88.8 million barrels. Corn used for ethanol productions in the first 15 days of the marketing year totaled 209 million bushels, relatively steady with last year’s usage levels.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up, with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis. The long-range forecast should support harvest activity overall as rainfall totals will be variable, but temperature trend above average for the next two weeks.

  • Though extremely early, Brazil weather could be triggering some weather premium into the grain markets. Forecast are staying on the hot and drier side for large portions of Brazil and could impact planting pace or germination in some regions.

  • The strong price action sets the corn market up for some potential bullish follow through. Managed money is holding a large short position in the corn market, and the turn higher could trigger additional short covering and technical buying.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans began the day lower but ended the day higher after finding support again at the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal also ended higher while soybean oil moved lower. Technical buying likely kicked in with soybean futures sharply oversold.

  • This morning, the USDA confirmed a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. This is the second sale of the week as US exports pick up slightly but remain overshadowed by Brazil’s exports.

  • Yesterday, Brazil’s CONAB estimated that the soybean crop for 23/24 would increase to a new record large production of 162.8 mmt, as planted acres expand by 2.8%. Many of those acres are coming from a decrease in corn acres, but dry weather from the El Nino weather pattern could hinder Brazil’s production.

  • Low water levels on the Mississippi River are negatively impacting basis for many producers, but rains forecast in the northwestern Plains and Midwest through Saturday could make their way to the river and raise water levels in the next two weeks.

Above: Since negating the bullish reversal of September 13, the market has retreated into the 1300 – 1330 support area and is becoming oversold. Should 1300 support fail, the next target area of support is near the May 31 low of 1270. If prices turn higher, initial resistance sits between 1368 and the 50-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Today the Federal Reserve issued a pause in interest rate hikes but did indicate that rates may stay higher for longer. This pause may have gotten the grain bulls interested, with higher closes in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat.

  • The US Dollar Index was marginally lower today and as of writing, still negative but much closer to neutral. The dollar is also overbought and may be due for more downside.

  • In addition to the lower US dollar and steady interest rates, Paris milling wheat futures rallied about 0.5% in today’s trade and lent additional support to US wheat prices.

  • Russia continues to be the anchor that keeps the US wheat market dragging along. Their total grain harvest is expected to reach 130 mmt (with 123 mmt harvested so far). According to their agriculture minister, they also expect to export 60 mmt of grain this season.

  • The EU’s soft wheat exports as of September 17, have totaled 6.32 mmt since the season began on July 1, representing a 27% decrease from last year’s totals of 8.7 mmt for the same time frame.

  • Egypt will reportedly source almost one-half million tonnes of wheat from France and Bulgaria. Originally, they were going to purchase from Russia, but apparently Moscow blocked the deal due to a pricing disagreement which fell below the Russian floor of $270 per ton.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Soft Red Winter wheat crop. The wheat market has been very volatile in recent weeks, following corn on weather and headlines regarding Russia and Ukraine. Harvest is now behind us, and while war continues in the Black Sea and weather continues to be variable, demand remains weak with cheap Black Sea supplies continuing to undercut U.S. offers. Of course, changing headlines can still jolt the market higher. Prices have retraced into nearby resistance, and Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 19, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Short covering and value buying brought the buyers out in the corn market today after the December contract printed the lowest price in two years during the overnight session.

  • With crop conditions reported above expectations, soybeans were pulled in both directions through the day from higher soybean meal and lower bean oil, before settling lower on the day though 7 ½ cents off the day’s low.  

  • Soybean oil finished 1% lower with follow through selling from Monday’s losses on nearby excess supply concerns, while meal settled moderately higher on the day with traders likely covering short positions as the market consolidated.

  • Spring wheat harvest is in the final stretch, 93% complete as of September 17, and may have contributed to the bounce in the Minneapolis contracts, while K.C. and Chicago contracts continued the selloff from Monday’s weakness, though they finished off the day’s lows.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day Precipitation Forecast and the 8 – 14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Buyers returned to the corn market after December futures pushed to the lowest level in two years in the overnight session. During the day session, December futures reversed higher, closing 4 ¾ cents higher on the day, with the market supported by short covering and value buying.

  • The strong price action sets the corn market up for some potential bullish follow through. Managed money is holding a large short position in the corn market, and the turn higher could trigger additional short covering and technical buying.

  • The weekly crop progress report showed corn maturity at 54% mature, up 20% from last week and 10% over the 5-year average. Corn harvest is beginning to pick up, at 9% harvested versus 5% last week. The 5-year average is 7% harvested for this time frame.

  • Harvest pressure will likely push on cash basis. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support any ongoing harvest. The long-range forecast should support harvest activity overall as rainfall totals will be variable, but the temperature trend is above-average for the next two weeks.

  • Strong crude oil prices will likely stay supportive of the corn market, helping support ethanol margins. Last week ethanol production was strong, and the latest EIA report will be released on Wednesday to potentially show additional production strength for the fuel.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29 and the market continues to be under their influence. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans closed slightly lower but bounced off sharper lows earlier in the day after finding support near the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil was pressured by lower global veg oils.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released crop progress which surprisingly showed no change in the good to excellent ratings for soybeans and was kept at 52%, but focus is turning to the early maturation and soybeans dropping leaves which came in at 54%, up from 31% last week.

  • In central and southeast Brazil, dryness and intense heat is forecast throughout the week which is bringing concern for recently planted soybean seedlings. With such a tight U.S. carryout, Brazilian weather problems this season could provide bullish momentum to the market.

  • Low water levels on the Mississippi River are negatively impacting basis for many producers, but rains forecast in the northwestern Plains and Midwest through Saturday could make their way to the river to raise levels in the next two weeks.

Above: Since negating the bullish reversal of September 13, the market has retreated into the 1300 – 1330 support area and is becoming oversold. Should 1300 support fail, the next target area of support is near the May 31 low of 1270. If prices turn higher, initial resistance now sits between 1368 and the 50-day moving average, about 1385. 

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • According to the USDA, 15% of the winter wheat crop is now planted, up from 7% last week. Additionally, 93% of U.S. spring wheat is harvested versus 87% last week.

  • Russia continues to dominate on the export front with wheat export values reportedly falling again.  Consultancy IKAR is indicating $235 per tonne FOB, while Sov Econ is reporting $245 per tonne.  Their dominance also includes sales to China. China’s January – August wheat imports total 9.6 mmt, up 53% from last year.

  • The first of two civilian vessels to have entered Ukrainian ports have reportedly left with 3,000 mt of grain. While it is unclear what percentage of that was wheat, what is clear, is the fact that Ukraine is doing everything in their power to export in spite of the war.

  • Rio Grande Do Sul is the top wheat producing state in Brazil, and the rain they are receiving could cause damage and quality concerns. Apparently, the rate of disease is increasing. Nevertheless, Brazilian wheat prices are declining due to harvest pressure and good supply. Like Russia, this could put pressure on U.S. exports.

  • The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has come out and stated that El Nino is likely to last through February. This pattern typically means less rainfall in eastern Australia. With a heat wave going through, and dryness already expanding, this does not bode well for their crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7 day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Grain Market Insider: September 18, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite strong ethanol margins that support domestic demand, harvest pressure and weekly exports that remain behind the pace needed to reach the USDA’s goal weighed on corn prices.

  • Although the USDA announced a 123k mt flash sale of soybeans to China this morning, export inspections that were 16% behind year ago levels added pressure to the soybean market, which saw follow through selling following Friday’s bearish reversal.

  • Soybean oil followed a weaker palm oil, which was sharply lower on demand concerns and possibly too much nearby supply, while technical selling in the meal weighed on prices following Friday’s weakness.

  • Export inspections for wheat were within expectations, though cumulatively they remain 29% behind last year’s numbers, versus the USDA’s forecast of an 8% decline, and weighed heavily on all three classes of wheat.

  • To see the current U.S. 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Two week South American Precipitation Forecasts, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Weak price action and harvest pressure keep the sellers in control in the corn market to start the week.  Dec corn established a new contract low, losing 4 ¾ cents on the session. The overall trend continues to be sideways to lower in the corn market.

  • Harvest pressure will likely push on cash basis. Corn harvest was 5% complete last week and is expected to push to 10% complete on this week’s Crop Progress report. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support any ongoing harvest.

  • Ethanol margins have remained strong, with softening corn prices. A strong crude oil market, challenging $92 a barrel on the session, will help support those margins. Ethanol production will likely stay supportive in the market. 

  • Weekly corn export inspections were at 642,000 mt (25.3 mb), which was within analyst expectations.  Year-to-date export inspections have totaled 1.267 mmt (50 mb), up 10% from last year, but still behind the required pace to reach USDA targets. The USDA is targeting total exports to 2.050 billion bushels, up 23% from last year.

  • Manage Money funds have grown their net short position in the corn market to 134,909 contracts as of 9/12. Funds added nearly 41,000 combined short contracts last week, growing the position to one of the largest for this time of year in the last 5 years.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 41,996 contracts between Sept. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 134,909 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Despite a tight carryout and a flash sale today, harvest pressure, along with lower soybean oil and meal, pressed the soybean market, which ended significantly lower.

  • Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales totaling 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year, which began September 1.

  • Crop progress will be released later this evening, and trade is expecting good to excellent ratings to fall 1 – 2 percentage points from last week on hot and dry weather. Some analysts are expecting ending soybean yields to come out below 49 bpa, which is below the USDA’s estimate of 50.1 bpa and could offer support to the market.

  • Last week, November soybeans lost 22-3/4 cents and today, the contract fell below the 200-day moving average. Between September 5 – 12, non-commercials were sellers of 8,995 contracts, which reduced their net short position to 73,815 contracts.

Above: After posting a bullish reversal on September 13, the market has since retreated and traded through the low of that day, negating the bullish signal. Below the market, support may be found near 1330 and again around 1300. If prices turn higher, initial resistance now sits between 1368 and the 50-day moving average, about 1387.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,995 contracts between Sept. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net long 73,815 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Weekly inspections of 13.5 mb brought 23/24 total wheat inspections for export to 188 mb, down 29% from last year and below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 700 mb export projection.

  • Also pressuring wheat is news that two cargo ships made their way to Ukraine this weekend. Apparently, they will transport wheat out of Ukraine along the western coast of the Black Sea. News outlets are reporting that these are the first civilian vessels to make their way to a Ukrainian port since the end of the Black Sea export corridor.

  • As El Nino strengthens, drought is expected to expand in Australia. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, they are anticipating record breaking temperatures. Additionally, some private estimates of the Australian wheat crop are below 24 mmt versus the USDA’s 26 mmt figure.

  • The roughly 1.6% drop in Matif wheat futures today did not lend any support to the U.S. markets.  From a technical standpoint, the 20-day moving average, currently around 608, is acting as resistance, and the market has not traded above that average since the beginning of August.

  • While it is highly anticipated that the Federal Reserve will issue a pause on Wednesday, there is a small chance that they could also raise interest rates another 25 basis points due to inflation still being above their target level.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Soft Red Winter wheat crop. The wheat market has been very volatile in recent weeks following corn on weather and headlines regarding Russia and Ukraine. Harvest is now behind us, and while war continues in the Black Sea, and weather continues to be variable, demand remains weak with cheap Black Sea supplies continuing to undercut U.S. offers. Of course, changing headlines can still jolt the market higher, prices have retraced into nearby resistance, and Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,458 contracts between Sept. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 84,139 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,310 contracts between Sept. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 13,148 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,948 contracts between Sept. 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 13,361 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Spillover weakness from the soybeans and early harvest pressure weighed on the corn market, which closed in negative territory despite the friendly rally in wheat.

  • Poor August crush numbers pressured the soybean market following the release of the NOPA Crush report. The numbers not only came in well below trade estimates, but below last month’s and last year’s totals as well.

  • Soybean meal was a follower of soybeans in today’s session, while bean oil got a boost from higher palm oil and an August stocks number that came in well below expectations from the NOPA report.

  • Short covering ahead of the weekend on the possibility of further Black Sea escalations and continued southern hemisphere production concerns gave all three classes of the wheat market strength to trade higher through the day and close on the positive side of unchanged.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast, and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Despite a friendly turn higher in the wheat market, strong selling pressure in soybeans and likely early harvest pressure limited the corn market on the day. Dec corn lost 4 1/4 cents on the session and was down 7 1/2 cents for the week.

  • Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins.  Corn harvest was 5% complete last week and will likely see good progress again this week. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.

  • The corn market is still in a sideways to lower and overall consolidating type trade.  $4.80-$4.85 remains a strong level of resistance over the Dec contract, with support off Tuesday’s low of $4.73 1/2 as the market moves deeper into harvest.

  • Ethanol margins have remained strong, with softening corn prices, and crude oil pushing through $90 a barrel. Ethanol production will likely stay supportive in the market. 

  • Demand will stay a focus in the market as export demand is still soft. Current total sales commitments for the marketing year are at 439 mb, down 9% from last year’s levels, while the USDA is forecasting an increase in export sales.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with a loss of 22-3/4 cents for the week in the November contract following lackluster August soybean crush numbers. Soybean meal ended lower, while soybean oil ended higher with help from gains in palm oil.

  • The August NOPA Crush report was released and showed 161.453 mb crushed, well below estimates of 167.8 mb. This crush number was well below last month’s 173.3 mb, but ahead of last year. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.250 bp, which was below estimates of 1.527 bp.

  • This week, soybeans were pressured by a reduction in usage on the WASDE report, although ending stocks were called at 220 mb, a very tight number that may only be offset by the expectations for another massive Brazilian crop.

  • U.S. drought exposure for both corn and soybeans increased as of September 12, with soybean crops in drought rising by 5% and reaching 48%. This could cause another decline in soybean’s good to excellent ratings in Monday’s Crop Progress report.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have drifted lower and posted a bullish reversal from support near 1330 on September 13. If prices continue higher, initial resistance could be found near the 50-day moving average, with further resistance remaining between 1400 – 1410. Below the market, support may be found near 1330 and again around 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • El Nino, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, has a 95% chance of continuing through the end of March. Typically, this weather pattern brings drought to areas like India and Australia, but rains to Brazil and Argentina.

  • Argentina’s recent rains led to a 6% increase in their crop condition, but still only climbed to a low 24% good to excellent. Despite the El Nino pattern, October looks mostly dry for that region, but globally, drought is expanding in areas like Australia, which could affect their wheat production.

  • Stats Canada said that due to drought, Canadian all wheat production will decline to 29.8 mmt versus 34 mmt last year. That represents a 13% year on year reduction as yields are anticipated to be down 17.6%.

  • Ukraine is asking Poland not to impose a new grain import ban. Poland has stated that they will implement a ban if the EU ends their current restrictions. Also, while the Black Sea Grain Initiative remains closed for now, one ship has left the Odessa port, traveling via a different route.

  • As of September 12, the USDA estimates about 59% of the U.S. spring wheat production area remains in drought.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 Soft Red Winter wheat crop. The wheat market has been very volatile in recent weeks following corn on weather, and headlines regarding Russia and Ukraine. Harvest is now behind us, and while war continues in the Black Sea, and weather continues to be variable, demand remains weak with cheap Black Sea supplies continuing to undercut U.S. offers. Of course, changing headlines can still jolt the market higher, prices have retraced into nearby resistance, and Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. Currently, upside resistance remains between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665. Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Caught between unimpressive export sales and strong ethanol demand, the corn market traded on both sides of unchanged before settling in the red, and a little over 2 cents off the lows.

  • Solid gains in soybean meal lent support to the soybean market, which recovered from early losses and traded higher throughout the day on follow through technical buying from Wednesday’s bullish reversal.

  • Strong meal export sales that were above expectations boosted the soybean meal market, which reversed Wednesday’s losses. While soybean oil garnered underlying support from strong energy and palm oil markets, it closed unchanged to slightly higher following choppy trade.

  • While weekly wheat export sales for last week came in as expected, the fact that year to date commitments are 19% behind last year’s totals, versus the USDA’s forecast of an 8% decrease for the same period, likely added pressure to the wheat market as all three classes finished the day in the red.

  • To see the current U.S. Drought Monitor and the weekly Class Change Map, courtesy of the CPC and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Today was an overall quiet trading session as corn futures were choppy before settling lower on the day. Dec corn slipped 1 ¾ cents on the close. Sept corn futures finished its contract life today, closing at $4.62 ½.

  • Weekly export sales are still lackluster overall. Last week, U.S. exporters sold 29.7 mb of corn for the 2023-24 marketing year. Current total sales commitments are at 439 mb, down 9% from last year’s levels, while the USDA is forecasting an export sale increase for the marketing year.

  • Ethanol margins have remained strong, and last week’s ethanol grind was supportive of prices. Ethanol production jumped to 1.039 million barrels/day last week, above expectations and up 8% from YA. Corn consumed was nearly 104 mil. bu in the production process, above the pace needed to reach the USDA 2023/24 usage estimate of 5.30 bil. bu.

  • Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.

  • The corn market is still in a sideways and overall consolidating-type trade. $4.85 remains a strong level of resistance over the Dec contract, as the market ticks time moving closer to harvest.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, marking the second consecutive higher close following Tuesday’s WASDE report, and have regained nearly 2/3 of the losses over the two days. Soybean meal ended the day higher with more substantial gains than bean oil, which closed unchanged to only slightly higher.

  • Export sales were decent with the USDA reporting an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 with increases primarily for unknown destinations, China, and Japan. Export shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate.

  • Palm oil futures rallied for the second day as India’s edible oils imports rose by 5.5% in August to a record large 1.85 mmt. There were large increases in imports of palm oil and soybean oil, which have been supportive to futures.

  • The average trade guess for Friday’s August U.S. NOPA soybean crush is 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush, but up 1.4% from the previous year.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have drifted lower and posted a bullish reversal from support near 1330 on September 13. If prices continue higher, initial resistance could be found near the 50-day moving average, with further resistance remaining between 1400 – 1410. Below the market, support may be found near 1330 and again around 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s 700 mb export forecast.

  • Despite a second consecutive higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, it was not enough to support the U.S. wheat markets, with all three classes posting losses. A lack of fresh bullish news and slow year to date sales may have contributed to today’s weakness.

  • According to the Rosario Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop production is now estimated at 15 mmt versus its last estimate of 15.6 mmt, due to dryness.

  • Despite that the USDA cut some other global production in Tuesday’s WASDE report, they left Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, several private estimates are projecting a larger crop, with Sov Econ estimating Russian wheat production at 92 mmt.

  • Strategie Grains reduced their estimate of EU wheat exports to 30.1 mmt from 30.8 mmt previously. However, they did slightly raise soft wheat production to 125 mmt versus 124.7 mmt last month.

  • Next week, a meetings will take place between officials from the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukrainian President Zelensky. The talks will center around the Black Sea grain deal and possibly coming to a resolution in terms of getting the corridor re-opened.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 600 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. Currently, upside resistance remains between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665. Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780.  Otherwise, support below the market rests near the Sept. 12 low of 709, and again near the Sept. ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from a firmer wheat market and some short covering supported the corn market as it not only settled higher on the day, but also within a ½ cent of the day’s highs.

  • Strength from a sharply higher soybean oil market helped November soybeans close 16 cents off its low and higher on the day, while follow through technical selling from yesterday’s lower close weighed on soybean meal.

  • Despite lower crude oil prices, higher palm, and heating oil (diesel fuel) lent support to the soybean oil market, as U.S. fuel distillate stocks for August fell 16% below the 10-year average.

  • Black Sea escalation, and the lower than expected USDA Global wheat stocks estimate, continued to support all three wheat classes, which closed higher on follow through buying and short covering from yesterday’s bullish reversals.

  • The U.S. dollar has been consolidating the last few sessions with little movement up or down ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Long-term, the market may be friendly to the dollar as the U.S. economy is viewed as being in better shape than its European counterparts, and this could add resistance to the commodity markets.

  • To see the current U.S. 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures saw some short covering after bouncing off the low on Tuesday following the USDA report. Buying strength in the wheat market supported corn futures on the session as December corn added 5 ¾ cents.

  • Tuesday’s USDA report failed to provide any true positive news as the addition of nearly 800,000 corn acres kept the balance sheet heavy for corn, limiting any price rally. Even with a forecasted lower yield, carry out projections of 2.221 billion bushels for the marketing year were above expectations.

  • Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins. Harvest was 5% complete last week, and weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.

  • Price action was firm on Wednesday, and that could trigger additional buying strength and short covering. Strong resistance at $4.85 over the December contract could limit buying strength.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Marketing year sales are disappointing, which has limited the upside in the market, and expectation are for last week’s export sales totals to stay soft overall.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a rocky lower start, and yesterday’s selloff following the USDA report. Soybean meal ended lower, but soybean oil was able to gain some traction and closed 3% higher in the October contract.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report was not particularly bearish, but elicited a negative market reaction as trade was possibly expecting friendlier numbers. Final production was pegged at 4.146 bb compared to 4.205 bb in August, while the new crop carryout was called at 220 mb, which was 7 mb higher than the Dow Jones average trade guess. World ending stocks were increased slightly, which added pressure.

  • Chinese imports were raised to a record large 102 mmt for old crop and 100 mmt for new crop, which has shown up in more active export sales in the U.S. While the Chinese economy may be sluggish, their demand for Ag products has remained firm.

  • Brazil’s total soy exports are expected to reach 99 mmt in 2023, up significantly from a month ago, and soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.16 mmt in September versus 2.06 mmt the previous week. 

Above: After filling in the chart gap that was left between 1390-1/2 and 1394-3/4, the market has drifted lower in conjunction with stochastic indicators crossing over in overbought conditions indicating a possible downward market reversal. For now, if prices continue to slide lower, the market may find support near 1330 and again around 1300. If prices regain upward momentum, initial resistance will be in the 1400 – 1410 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After yesterday’s report, wheat may be finding support at these lower levels, with a positive close in all three U.S. futures classes, as well as Paris milling wheat futures.

  • Ukrainian attacks on the Sebastopol port in Crimea, which is controlled by Russia, lent support to wheat today. The war premium may be acting as a catalyst for short covering by the funds, who still hold a large speculative net short position. Additionally, yesterday’s USDA data showed a large 7 mmt reduction in global production as well, which is likely adding fuel to the fire.

  • This Friday, September 15, the current EU ban on Ukraine grain imports will expire. Several European nations including Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Poland have indicated that they will issue their own bans if the EU does not extend theirs. The concern of these nations is that a flood of Ukrainian supply could cause their domestic prices to fall. Currently, grain is allowed to flow through these countries on its way to other destinations; at this time, it is not known how that flow of grain may be impacted by any new bans.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports since July 1 have reached 5.84 mmt as of September 8, and represents a 27% decline from 8.02 mmt in the same timeframe last year. Also, while Ukraine’s July 1 – September 13 grain exports were down overall, wheat exports totaling 2.5 mmt, were up 36.5% year on year.

  • December Chicago wheat stochastics are showing a crossover signal in oversold territory, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Additionally, when looking at historical patterns, wheat tends to establish a seasonal low around this time frame.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 600 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. If prices can continue higher, initial resistance may come in between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665.  Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780.  Otherwise, support below the market rests near the Sept. 12 low of 709, and again near the Sept. ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. If prices continue to the upside, nearby resistance could be found near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • An increase of 774k planted corn acres by the USDA offset a drop in yield and helped push the USDA’s 23/24 corn production estimate to its second highest level ever, which weighed heavily on the corn market.

  • Like the corn market, soybeans found bearish news from today’s USDA report. While the USDA’s yield estimate was just below the trade’s average guess, both U.S. and world ending stocks came in above expectations and pushed the market lower.

  • Although soybean crush was lowered 10 mb by the USDA, both soybean meal and oil traded lower, and added to the bearish tone of the soybean market, with December meal and oil losing $6.80, and 0.43 cents, respectively.

  • The USDA made few changes to the U.S. wheat balance sheet in today’s report, with U.S. ending stocks remaining steady, as expected, at 615 mb. World ending stocks, on the other hand, were lowered 7 mmt, well below expectations, and this likely led to the market’s bullish reversal in all three wheat classes, which all closed in positive territory.

  • To see the current U.S. 3 – 4 week Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • The USDA September report weighed on corn prices and December matched the July 16th low of 4.73 ½. Dec corn finished 9 ¼ lower on the session.

  • The USDA lowered the forecast corn yield to 173.8 bushels/acre, but added 774,000 acres to the harvested corn acres in today’s report. This put total corn production to 15.134 billion bushels, 126 million bushels above expectations.

  • With the increased production, the USDA left the demand side of the balance sheet unchanged, which raised overall corn carry out for the 2023-24 marketing year to 2.221 billion bushels, 81 million bushels above expectations. The stocks-to-use ratio moves to a heavy 15.4%.

  • The USDA crop progress pegged corn harvest at 5% complete as of Sunday, September 10. This was even with last year and 1% above the 5-year average. Early harvest could keep pressure on corn prices, and basis could fade as fresh bushels are moved into the cash market.

  • Forecasted weather for the next couple of weeks is to remain dry overall, which could aid harvest, helping bring fresh supplies into the corn pipeline.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has been  primarily sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, along with both soybean meal and oil, following the USDA’s WASDE report, which showed very tight 23/24 ending stocks, but slight reductions in usage and export demand.

  • Key numbers from today’s report showed yield being decreased to 50.1 bpa from 50.9 bpa, harvested area being slightly increased to 82.791 mil acres from 82.696 ma, and ending stocks being lowered less than expected to 220 mb from 245 mb. The bearish notes came from a drop in soybean usage of 45 mb and a decline in exports by just under 2%. Additionally, world ending stocks came in higher than trade expectations at 119.25 mmt.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good to excellent ratings falling by 1 percentage point to 52%, while trade was expecting a decline between 2-3 points. The poor to very poor rating increased by 1 percentage point and 31% of the crop is dropping leaves.

  • Even though the USDA decreased soybean exports, export demand has been on the rise over the past month and Chinese demand has been improving. The Chinese ag ministry raised their estimate of soybean imports by 4.66 mmt to 99.9 mmt on increased feed demand.

Above: After filling in the chart gap that was left between 1390-1/2 and 1394-3/4, the market has drifted lower in conjunction with stochastic indicators crossing over in overbought conditions indicating a possible downward market reversal. For now, if prices continue to slide lower, the market may find support near 1330 and again around 1300. If prices regain upward momentum, initial resistance will be in the 1400 – 1410 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • On today’s WASDE report, U.S. wheat carryout came in at 615 mb, unchanged from last month, and 1 mb above the average pre-report estimate. Also unchanged from last month is the expected 23/24 US harvest at 1.734 billion bushels.

  • On the global numbers, the USDA estimated a 7 mmt decrease from last month for world ending wheat stocks, at 258.61 mmt, much more than the market expected.

  • Aside from the USDA report, yesterday’s crop progress data showed that winter wheat is 7% planted. Also, 87% of the spring wheat crop is now harvested, which is in line with the five-year average.

  • According to the Russian ag ministry, Russia’s 2023 grain harvest forecast is now 130 mmt versus 123 mmt previously.

  • Poland’s government is set to extend restrictions on imports of Ukrainian grain. The current ban expires on Friday and is in place to ensure that supply does not flood their market and limit profitability for Polish farmers. In response, Ukraine is said to be ready to file a complaint to the World Trade Organization.

  • As stated by Ukraine’s ag ministry, they have planted 228,600 hectares of wheat so far for the 2024 harvest. This compares to just 141,000 hectares for the same time period last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 600 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. If prices can continue higher, initial resistance may come in between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665.  Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop, and after recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780.  Otherwise, support below the market rests near the Sept. 5 low of 713-3/4, and again near the Sept. ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season, with continued dryness concerns in not only the US, but also Canada and Australia. While there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks-to-use ratio remains at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher. For now, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop and Insider is content to see how the market develops before suggesting making any additional sales. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. If prices continue to the upside, nearby resistance could be found near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Position squaring and mild short covering ahead of tomorrow’s USDA update kept the corn market in positive territory, despite export inspections that came in on the light side.

  • Anticipation of lower ending stocks, support from soybean meal, and position squaring before the USDA report kept the soybean market in a relatively tight range, but solidly on the positive side of unchanged at the close of today’s markets.

  • Follow through buying from Friday’s bullish reversal lent support to soybean meal, while increasing palm oil supplies continue to weigh on the soybean oil market. On balance, crush margins continue to be very profitable, with December Board Crush gaining 1-3/4 cents, and closing at 187-1/4 per bushel.  

  • Weekly export inspections that came in at the upper end of expectations for the week ending September 7 did not translate into support for the wheat market, as total cumulative inspections remain 26% below last year. All three classes closed lower on the day, with both Chicago and K.C. contracts making new lows for the move, negating last week’s bullish reversals.

  • To see the current U.S. 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 8 – 14 day precipitation forecasts for Brazil and Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Consolidation continues with position squaring before Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report. Dec corn added 2 cents on the session as prices moved in a quiet 6 cent trading range.

  • Export inspections for the week ending September 7 remain light. The U.S. shipped 24.6 mb of corn last week. China did receive shipment on 8.8 mb of corn last week.

  • Early harvest could keep pressure on the corn market. Forecasted weather for the next couple of weeks is to remain dry overall, which could aid harvest.  Cash basis could fade as fresh bushels are moved into the cash market.

  • Corn ratings are expected to fall again this week. Analysts forecast on average that the weekly Crop Progress report would show 52% of the U.S. corn crop in good to excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from the previous week. Crop ratings move more to the back burner this time of year, as crop conditions are expected to slip, and the crop matures.

  • Tomorrow’s USDA report will be looking at crop production and likely making demand adjustments. Expectations are for yield to be lowered to 173.5 bushels/acre from 175.1 last month. If the USDA makes potential demand adjustments, forecast carryout could still be over 2.0 billion bushels. A sleeper item in the report could be the addition of more planted corn acres.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has been  primarily sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 6,565  contracts between Aug. 29 – Sept. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 93,913 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with support from higher soybean meal, while soybean oil was relatively unchanged on the day. Soybean oil has trended lower over the past month, possibly limiting gains in soybeans, as global veg oils slip.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release the WASDE report, in which they will revise yields, export demand, and potentially acreage. Average estimates are for yield to drop by 0.7 bpa, for harvested acres to increase slightly, and most importantly, for ending stocks to fall by about 40 mb for 23/24, which could elicit a bullish market reaction.

  • Malaysian palm oil has been on a downward trajectory, falling over 3% today and 5.2% last week, as they see the highest palm oil inventory in 7 months with August production nearly 9% above July. While veg oils have been slipping, crude oil continues to trend higher.

  • Crop progress will be released later today, and estimates are for good to excellent ratings to fall by 2-3%. The soybean crop seems to be shrinking at a time when export demand for soybeans is ticking up, and the ending stocks number may be getting dangerously tight. Brazil’s monster soybean crops are the biggest bearish factor.

Above: After filling in the chart gap that was left between 1390-1/2 and 1394-3/4, the market has drifted lower in conjunction with stochastic indicators crossing over in overbought conditions indicating a possible downward market reversal. For now, if prices continue to slide lower, the market may find support near 1330 and again around 1300. If prices regain upward momentum, initial resistance will be in the 1400 – 1410 area.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,175 contracts between Aug. 29 – Sept. 5, bringing their total position to a net long 82,810 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat export inspections of 14.9 mb brings the total 23/24 inspections to 175 mb, which is down 26% from last year. Total exports are estimated by the USDA at 700 mb, however, this could potentially be revised in tomorrow’s WASDE report.

  • Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to have minimal changes for wheat numbers. U.S. carryout is expected to come in at 614 mb versus 615 mb previously, and world ending stocks are anticipated to be 265.0 mmt versus 265.61 mmt. If true, that would be the lowest in seven years.

  • Offering weakness to U.S. futures prices, Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower on Monday, and though the U.S. Dollar Index was lower today, it has been higher for eight consecutive weeks.

  • With Russia’s wheat harvest now 71% complete, Sov Econ revised their Russian export estimate higher, from 48.1 to 48.6 mmt., and according to consultancy IKAR, Russia’s FOB export values fell to $240 per mt., both of which keep pressure on U.S. exports.

  • Russia is said to have rejected offers from the UN and Turkey that were aimed at re-opening the Black Sea export corridor. For now, Ukraine will have to transport what they can by rail and truck out of Europe, but many European nations have refused to import Ukrainian grain for fear of lowering their domestic values.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 800 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 825, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: The Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, which signals prices could continue to move lower. The market is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse to the upside.  For now, the next level of nearby support is between the May low of 573 and the December 2020 low of 565, with initial resistance on the upside coming in between 590 and 615.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,200 contracts between Aug. 29 – Sept. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 78,681 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Above: December K.C. wheat posted a bullish reversal on September 5 from oversold conditions and followed through into the previous trading range. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 5 low of 724-1/2, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,873 contracts between Aug. 29 – Sept. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 9,838 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season, with continued dryness concerns in not only the US, but also Canada and Australia. While there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks-to-use ratio remains at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher. For now, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop and Insider is content to see how the market develops before suggesting making any additional sales. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions with some follow-through. If prices continue to the upside, nearby resistance could be found near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,179 contracts between Aug. 29 – Sept. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 11,413 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 8, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Disappointing export sales and anticipation of the USDA’s WASDE report next Tuesday kept the corn market in consolidation mode with prices looking for direction as they closed mildly lower going into the weekend.

  • The soybean complex ended the day mixed as decent export sales and strength from soybean meal supported beans. Meal posted a bullish reversal following its recent slide from late August, while soybean oil posted relatively minor losses, following lower palm oil, as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend and next week’s report.

  • Prices for December Chicago wheat rebounded into the close after making a new low for the move. Although prices rebounded in Chicago wheat, they still closed lower on the day along with K.C. and Minneapolis, following a relatively tight trade as traders squared positions ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report, and rain is expected to move into the southern Plains.

  • To see the current U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for September, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Quiet price action is the norm in the corn market as Dec corn faded to a 2-½ cent loss on the day but closed the week higher, gaining 2 ¼ cents. The overall lack of news and anticipation of next Tuesday’s USDA report had prices consolidating this week, looking for direction.

  • Weekly export sales are still disappointing overall. Old crop sales at the end of the marketing year saw new cancellations of 15,000 mt with any undelivered sales likely rolling into the new marketing year. New crop sales were 1.78 mmt, or 37.4 million bushels. The current book of new crop sales is the fourth worst for corn in the past 10 years as the U.S. struggles against foreign competition.

  • Early harvest could keep pressure on the corn market. Forecasted wetter weather in the West could slow movement, but basis could fade as fresh bushels are moved into the cash market.

  • Next week’s USDA report will be looking at crop production and likely making demand adjustments. Expectations are for yield to be lowered to 173.5 bushels/acre from 175.1 last month. If the USDA makes potential demand adjustments, forecast carryout could still be over 2.0 billion bushels.

  • Corn prices have been trading in a sideways, consolidative pattern since mid-August. The narrowing, choppy pattern may be setting the market up for a break in either direction, likely triggered by the reaction to the report on Tuesday next week.

Above: After trading mostly sideways since the end of July, December corn posted a bearish reversal on 8/21 after testing the 495 – 516 resistance level. While the reversal is a bearish development, prices could turn higher if the market receives additional bullish input. Should that happen, resistance above the market remains between 495 – 516. If not and prices turn lower, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher while products were mixed. Soybean meal maintained its momentum and closed higher, while soybean oil continued to be dragged lower by falling palm oil prices despite tight supplies.

  • Trade in the grain complex has been relatively quiet ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report in which yields, planted acres, and ending stocks will be revised. Most analysts are expecting yields to be lowered, but there is potential that acreage will be increased.

  • Export sales were released from last week and showed an increase of 5.7 mb for 22/23, and an increase of 65.5 mb for 23/24, a good number. Last week’s export shipments of 44.9 mb were solid and produced total shipments for the 22/23 marketing year of 1.992 billion bushels, which was above the USDA’s previous estimate of 1.980 bb.

  • There has been some concern regarding China’s economy after reports were released showing that China’s total imports were down by 7.3% in August. This is in contrast with China’s soybean imports which were up by 31% from a year ago but have mostly been supplied by Brazil. There have been rumors that China may be picking up 6 to 8 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for November shipment.

Above: After filling in the chart gap that was left between 1390-1/2 and 1394-3/4, the market has drifted lower in conjunction with stochastic indicators crossing over in overbought conditions indicating a possible downward market reversal. For now, if prices continue to slide lower, the market may find support near 1330 and again around 1300. If prices regain upward momentum, initial resistance will be in the 1400 – 1410 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 13.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments were 11.6 mb and below the 14.0 mb needed.

  • Rain is in the forecast for the southern Plains and into southern Nebraska for this weekend and into next week. Amounts are expected to be favorable and should be beneficial for winter wheat planting conditions.

  • Not many changes are expected in Tuesday’s WASDE update. The average trade guess for U.S. carryout is 613 mb, down 2 mb from last month, and the average guess for 23/24 world carryout is 265 mmt, 600k lower than last month.

  • Statistics Canada released its estimate for Canada’s all wheat stocks as of July 31, and it came in at 3.584 mmt, below last year’s 3.663 mmt and the average trade guess of 4.0 mmt.  

  • The BAGE updated its estimate for Argentina’s wheat crop at 16.5 mmt versus 12.2 mmt for last year. The USDA is currently estimating the crop at 17.5 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 800 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 825, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: The Chicago wheat market continues to be rangebound with initial support at the low end coming in near 590 – 595, with resistance at the upper end near 650. If the market breaks out to the upside, the next level of resistance may be found near 665; if not and the market drifts lower, the next level of support below the market may be found near 573.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Above: December K.C. wheat posted a bullish reversal on September 5 from oversold conditions and followed through into the previous trading range. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 5 low of 724-1/2, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature to price volatility this growing season, with continued dryness concerns in not only the US, but also Canada and Australia. While there typically isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest is complete, both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks-to-use ratio remains at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher. For now, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop and Insider is content to see how the market develops before suggesting making any additional sales. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions with some follow-through. If prices continue to the upside, nearby resistance could be found near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

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