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Grain Market Insider: October 5, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Front month corn futures pushed through upside resistance today to close at their highest level since early August. Strong weekly export sales and a push higher in wheat prices aided the rally.

  • After trading lower early in the day, soybeans ended the session higher on South American weather worries and strength from both corn and wheat.

  • Soybean meal futures, which remain technically oversold, rallied higher today after testing support. Soybean oil did not join rally in soybeans and soybean meal, but rather followed crude oil lower yet again today.

  • Wheat futures led the push higher in grains today, closing up double digits across all three classes. Heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as wheats’ technically oversold condition are attributed to today’s rally.  

  • To see the current 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • December corn futures pushed through resistance at the $4.90 levels and saw a rounds of short covering and technical buying to post the contracts highest daily close since Aug 8, gaining 11 ½ cents on the day.

  • Weekly export sales of corn were strong at 1.82 mmt (71.5 mb) of old crop and 611,400 mt (24.1 mb) of new. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week, which was expected. China did step into the corn market with a small purchase (5.5 mb) of U.S. corn.

  • Export shipments were 24.1 mb last week, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA export targets. Corn sales now total 556 mb for 2023-24, up 9% from last year.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and pace should continue to be firm this week. The forecast still looks overall friendly to keep harvest moving along at a good pace. Harvest pressure will limit the corn market as fresh supplies pressure the basis and the cash market.

  • The corn market rally may still be limited as premiums for Brazilian corn have slipped recently, keeping Brazilian corn still cheaper than U.S. bushels on the export market. Brazilian corn exports for 2023 through September are on record pace, and October exports are expected to reach another record near 8.9 MMT.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a lower open and continued to hold above support at the 12.56 level. Technically, soybeans are oversold and weather concerns in South America could push prices higher. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil closed lower.

  • A week from today is the October WASDE report and it is possible that soybean production gets increased based off early yield estimates, which may be higher than expected. Even with a slight increase in production, stocks will be very tight, and Brazil may be facing some weather troubles due to the El Nino pattern occurring.

  • The northern region of Brazil is currently too dry, but in the South, it is far too wet to plant with floods occurring and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast over the next 10 days. With US ending stocks slated to be so tight, any weather impact on Brazil’s soybean crop could be very friendly for prices.

  • Export sales for soybeans were decent with the USDA reporting increases of 29.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 24.7 mb were below the 35.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were China, Spain, and Bangladesh.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 14.3 mb were above the 13.9 mb pace necessary to meet the 700 mb export goal. However, total export commitments at 347 mb are down 14% from last year.

  • The jump in wheat today was likely both technical and fundamental in nature. From the technical perspective, wheat was oversold and due for a correction to the upside. That may have been initiated on the fundamental side by more war premium being added into the marketplace. A Russian missile attack was said to have killed 49 civilians; additionally, there are reports that a vessel on the way to Ukraine struck a sea mine, but this is currently unconfirmed.

  • On top of the above news, there is also talk of UK intelligence warning that Russia may be planting additional mines, meant to target civilian vessels. Meanwhile, there are reports that Germany will send air defenses to Ukraine to thwart Russian attacks on grain shipments.

  • Also helping wheat today were higher Matif futures, and a lower US Dollar Index. As of this writing, the index is headed for a second consecutive lower close. Above 106 currently, it does remain at a relatively high level, but if the dollar continues to decline, it should ease pressure on US exports.

  • Western Argentina and Australia remain too dry. Rains last week in Argentina were not enough to replenish soil moisture levels. According to the Rosario Exchange, they need about 15-20 milliliters of rain to stabilize the crop, but they are expected to get less than 10 ml over the next several days (according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange).

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: October 4, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After rallying off the day’s lows, December corn once again hit resistance near 490 and the 50 day moving average as carryover weakness from crude oil and harvest pressure weighed on the market into the close.

  • After trading both sides of unchanged, November soybeans settled near even on the day and 12 cents off the high as bull spreading (buying nearby contracts versus the deferred) brought support to the front end relative to the back on the recent uptick in Chinese demand.

  • Weakness in crude oil added pressure to soybean oil, while meal followed through on yesterday’s strength before encountering resistance at the 20 day moving average.

  • The wheat market continues to be volatile relative to headline news. Reports of more vessels using Ukraine’s export corridor to load grain out of their Black Sea ports weighed heavily on all three wheat classes in today’s trade.

  • To see the current U.S. 7 day Precipitation forecast, and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • An overall quiet day in the corn market as the Dec futures failed to push through resistance at 490 and closed the day down 1 ½ cents. A strong selloff in crude oil futures and harvest pressure limited the potential in the corn market on the session.

  • The crude oil market traded over 5% lower during the sessions as the latest Energy Information Association report saw gasoline demand drop to the lowest levels since 1998 last week, striking demand fears into an overbought crude oil market.

  • The corn market continues to be supported by a slight uptick in demand news. Mexico added a new flash sale of 196,000 mt of corn split between 23/24 and 24/25 marketing years, and ethanol grind remains strong as current corn usage for ethanol production is trending 5.5% greater than last year.

  • The USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. Corn is expected to show a strong week with new sales for the 23/24 marketing year to range from 1.4-2.0 mmt, and 24/25 marketing year sales to range from 650,000 mt to 750,000 mt. Most of these sales are known with last week’s reported purchases from Mexico.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and pace should continue to be firm this week.  Harvest pressure will limit the corn markets as fresh supplies pressure the basis and the cash market.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans were a mixed bag today as they traded higher in the overnight session, but faded into the day. Then, they managed to close just slightly higher in the two front months, with the deferred contracts lower. Soybean meal ended the day higher and soybean oil lower on lower crude oil and palm oil prices.

  • On the technical side, November soybeans found strong support at the previous June low of 1256 ¾ and moved higher. Soybeans are technically oversold and may have an opportunity to move higher. In addition, non-commercial traders have a net long position of just 30,058 contracts as of last week, which is relatively low for this time of year.

  • Yesterday’s sale of 9.7 mb of soybeans to China during their Golden Week holiday was encouraging, but U.S. new crop bean sales are at just 16.2 mmt compared to 25.5 mmt last year. At this point, U.S. soybeans are now competitive with Brazil’s offers and should help U.S. exports.

  • As the value of soy products has continued to decline over the past month, processors have lost some incentive to crush soybeans and yesterday’s Census Crush numbers for August revealed that only 169 mb of soybeans were crushed compared to trade estimates of 172 mb.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Rumors that Ukraine re-opened the Black Sea export corridor with Russian support had the wheat market under pressure today. As of this writing, it has not been confirmed, but the trade took notice, nonetheless. Also, two additional ships were confirmed heading toward Ukrainian ports, and 12 vessels are said to be waiting to load.

  • While Russian wheat offers are still beating out the U.S., China’s surprise purchase of SRW wheat yesterday signifies that U.S. wheat is becoming more competitive. However, the fact that the U.S. dollar is still at an 11 month high, and still in an uptrend, could continue to weigh on U.S. exports.

  • On the bullish side, heavy rains in parts of Brazil may cause concerns for their wheat crop. Additionally, the dryness in wheat growing areas of Australia and Argentina could reduce their production down the road. In any case, more friendly news may be needed to sustain buying interest.

  • According to Ukraine’s Agriculture ministry, planting of winter grain has reached 2.99 million hectares as of October 3rd. Of that total, 1.7 million ha is winter wheat, which represents a 58% increase when compared to last year.

  • According to SovEcon, as Russian wheat exports increase, on farm stocks have been falling from their record highs. They also estimated that Russian wheat exports will be 2 mmt above the previous year at 48.9 mmt.   

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: October 3, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While corn closed lower on the day with a strong dollar and ongoing harvest, demand has seen an uptick in activity and ethanol margins remain strong, adding a level of support to the market.

  • Higher crop ratings and weaker soybean meal and oil weighed on the soybean market, which ultimately closed in the red and 16 cents off its low, after trading on both sides of unchanged.

  • Despite the influence of the strong U.S. dollar, all three wheat classes finished the day on the positive side of unchanged. Adding support to the market was a flash sale totaling 220,000 mt of SRW wheat to China, and a forecast of Ukraine’s 2023 wheat production at 21.7 mmt that came in below the USDA’s current estimate.

  • The U.S. dollar continued its bull run to make another fresh 10-month high and add resistance to commodities, before giving up some of its gains before the grain market’s close. The dollar’s strength came from higher treasury yields, and more hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials stating that interest rates may need to increase once more and stay elevated for an extended period of time.

  • To see the current U.S. 5 day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures saw some back and fill price action, testing support before closing softer on the session as corn futures traded 1-2 cents lower. The price action could be considered positive as the market held onto yesterday’s gains and closed in the top half of the daily trading range.

  • The corn market continues to be supported by a slight uptick in demand news. Mexico has been a more active buyer of U.S. exportable corn, and ethanol margins remain strong. While the overall demand news is still disappointing, slight positive news has helped put a possible fall low in prices going into harvest.

  • U.S. corn harvest is now 23% complete according to the USDA Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon. This is slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 21%. Harvest pressure will continue to limit rallies in the near-term

  • A strong cold front will be moving through the Midwest going into the weekend, bringing rain chances for later in the week, but also the possibility of the first frost of the season. With the corn crop at 87% mature, damage from a frost/freeze event should be minimal.

  • Ethanol margins will likely stay sideways, but supportive in the short term.  The stronger ethanol grind has supported the market. The weekly Ethanol Production and Stocks report will be released on Wednesday morning.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ultimately ended the day lower, but came back significantly from their early morning lows, in which the low from June 28 was tested, but rebounded higher from there. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report likely added some bearish pressure today after good to excellent ratings were increased by 2% to 52%, above trade expectations. Harvest is now reportedly 23% complete, which compares with 12% a week ago, and above the 5-year average of 22%.

  • China was a buyer of both soybeans and wheat today, but for soybeans, they purchased 265,000 metric tons for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year. Soybean exports have been increasing slowly, but are still far below a year ago.

  • Adding more pressure to soybeans are the USDA August soybean crush estimates, which are at 171.6 million bushels, which would be an 11-month low. Crush margins have slipped recently weighing on soy prices, as there has been less of an incentive for processors to crush beans.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued the uptrend from yesterday, though with less enthusiasm. Chicago futures posted small gains out to September, but December contracts onward were neutral to negative at the close. The U.S. Dollar Index did make another new near-term high, which continues to pressure the market.

  • According to the USDA in Monday’s Crop Progress report, 40% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is planted versus 26% last week, with 15% said to be emerged.

  • Adding support to the market, the USDA reported this morning that private exporters reported sales totaling 220,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • According to Interfax, as of September 21, Russia has exported 17.7 mmt of grain, with wheat shipments totaling 13.5 mmt. The total grain export number is said to be 1.6 times that of total exported the same time last year. Reportedly, Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry also increased their grain harvest estimate to 21.7 mmt due to better than expected yield results so far.

  • Over the next several weeks, the wheat market has the potential to see a short covering rally with U.S. wheat becoming more competitive globally, and several countries at risk of lower production due to weather.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: October 2, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite tepid exports, the corn market regained its strength today following supportive stocks numbers from Friday’s USDA report and a strong wheat market.

  • Again, caught between sharply higher soybean oil and sharply lower soybean meal, the soybean market settled the day only moderately higher, with export inspections at the upper end of expectations, and stronger wheat and corn markets lending additional support.

  • Soybean oil was sharply higher with strength coming from reports that 22/23 soybean oil usage for biofuel was up 19% from last year, to 10.086 bil. lbs., versus a USDA forecast of a 14% increase.

  • The wheat complex staged a large comeback following Friday’s much higher than expected production estimate from the USDA. The rally, led by the Chicago contracts, was likely technical in nature as traders may have covered short positions with the USDA’s quarterly stocks number only slightly higher than expectations.

  • The U.S. dollar made a fresh 10-month high supported by firming Treasury yields and weak EU economic data. While grain futures shrugged off the negative influence in today’s trade, the strong dollar does create headwinds for US commodities in the world export market.

  • To see the current U.S. 5 day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • The corn market shrugged off Friday’s weakness as it refocused on the friendly numbers in Friday’s USDA report. December corn settled back above the 20-day moving average, with additional strength gained from another flash sale to Mexico and a higher wheat market.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed money was holding a net short position of nearly 170,000 contracts, after selling just under 24,000. This was one of the largest short positions since late 2020.

  • In a flash sale reported this morning by the USDA, Mexico stepped up to the plate again and purchased 210,000 mt (8 mb) of corn for the 23/24 marketing season. While exports remain sluggish overall, Mexico has been a main buyer.

  • Weekly corn export inspections for the week ending Thursday, September 28, came in lower than the previous week at 626,000 mt, mid-range of what was expected by the trade, and still behind the export pace needed to reach the USDA’s target of 2.050 bb for the 23/24 season.

  • Corn had a surprisingly negative reaction to Friday’s report, which showed September 1 stocks at 1.361 billion bushels, which was 78 mb below the September WASDE and 91 mb below last year’s stocks.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 23,791 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 168,606 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after beginning the day lower on the heels of the quarterly Stocks report, which saw prices fall sharply on Friday. Soybean meal ended the day lower, but support came from significantly higher soybean oil.

  • On Friday’s report, stocks were seen at 268 mb versus an expected 242 mb. This number still leaves stocks very tight, but was enough to cause funds to ramp up selling. Stocks are expected to remain tight as analysts begin to call yields closer to 49 bpa compared to the USDA’s guess of 50.1 bpa.

  • A sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans was reported for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year. In addition to this, weekly inspections for soybeans came in at the higher end of expectations at 663,335 mt.

  • The weekly Crop Progress report will be released later this afternoon and it is expected to show harvest between 26% and 28% complete, with both harvest and maturity ahead of the 5-year average. Conditions are expected to be called steady with most of the crop matured.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 15,744 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net long 30,058 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat saw quite a comeback today after the negative close on Friday. The Chicago contract in particular posted double digit gains all the way out to May of 2025. This is also despite a new near-term high in the U.S. dollar, and negative close in Matif futures, which lost three Euros on the front month December contract. 

  • Weekly wheat export inspections for the week ending September 28 came in at 14.6 mb and bring the total 23/24 inspections number to 233 mb. So far, inspections are running behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.

  • While it is not fresh news, fundamental support may be coming from weather issues in other wheat growing regions of the world. Australia in particular is struggling with heat and dryness, with some analysts predicting a 30%-40% decline in their crop production.

  • According to the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, an additional five cargo ships are headed to Ukrainian ports to load with grain for export. Reportedly, about 120,000 mt of grain will be destined for Africa and Europe. In other Black Sea news, as reported by Interfax, Russia will increase their wheat export tax to 4,565 Rubles per ton, the equivalent of about $46.85.

  • There was not much news to cause today’s rally, indicating that it was likely technical in nature. After Friday’s washout, wheat was quite oversold on some contracts and in need of a bounce. The question is, can this rally be sustained? Friday’s data painted a negative picture, that if true, could continue to pressure the market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the September 29 grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 421 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 96,384 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,055 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 16,385 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 480 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 15,657 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 29, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a flash sale of corn to Mexico and lower than anticipated September 1 stocks, sharp selloffs in the wheat and soybean complexes weighed on corn prices following today’s USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • September 1 soybean stocks came in above expectations, and above the USDA’s current 22/23 ending stocks number of 250 mb. The bearish report and heavy technical selling in both soybean meal and oil pressed November soybeans to 3-month lows.

  • Instead of an anticipated 5 mb reduction in U.S. wheat production, traders got a 78 mb increase in today’s USDA report. The news pressed the wheat complex between 3 – 6% lower with fresh 2-year lows in Chicago and Minneapolis, and prices not seen since July ’21 for K.C.

  • To see the current U.S. 7 day precipitation forecast, and the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures came under heavy selling pressure as selling in the wheat and soybean market weighed on futures, and the prospects of a proposed government shutdown on Sunday triggered risk off trade across the markets. December corn lost 11 ¾ cents on the day but was down only ½ cent on the week.

  • September 1 corn stocks in the USDA Grain Stocks report were less than expected at 1.361 billion bushels, which was below market expectations and last year’s levels. Though the numbers were friendly to expectations, the corn supply is still large, and a surprise increase in the wheat harvest forecast pressured corn prices.            

  • U.S. corn demand saw a little energy as the USDA announced a flash sale totaling 223,540 mt (8.8 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current crop year.

  • Harvest pressure continues to grow, and the increase in harvest bushels has weighed on basis levels and the cash market. Last week the crop was 15% harvested and should increase this week.

  • Corn futures look soft technically with the weak close on Friday. Additional price follow-through could take place to start next week, and prices may be poised to retest or establish a new low.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Total grain stocks (blue bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower to end the week, and month, following a bearish quarterly Grain Stocks report. For the week, November soybeans lost 21-1/4 cents, and for the month, they lost 93-3/4 cents. Non-commercial traders have been unloading their net long positions over the past few weeks, with more selling today.

  • In today’s report, old crop soybean stocks as of September 1, totaled 268 mb.  While higher than the 242 mb that trade was looking for, it is still very tight, and 2% below this time last year. Soybean production for 2022 was also revised down by 5.93 mb from the previous estimate.

  • For 2022, planted area was unchanged at 87.5 million acres but harvested area was revised to 86.2 million acres. The yield for 2022 was also revised to 49.6 bpa, up 0.1 bushel from the previous estimate. Overall, the report had a negative reaction with an increase in ending stocks but a decrease in production.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest should pick up speed in the coming days with little rain expected over the next week. Drought conditions are still prevalent in the Midwest, and heavy rains would be needed to improve soil moisture levels.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.

Total grain stocks (black bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheats had double digit losses across the board after a negative reaction to today’s reports. September 1 wheat stocks came in at 1.780 bb versus 1.774 bb expected and 1.778 last year. Additionally, U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1.812 bb versus an expected 1.731 bb, and last year’s 1.650 bb.

  • Despite negative data today, there is still a silver lining for wheat bulls with weather problems that may affect global production. There is talk of Australia’s crop being lowered to 23-25 mmt, and also lower EU crops. In addition, Argentina’s wheat crop ratings are up from last year’s 14% good to excellent, but still a dismal 22% GTE.

  • The drop in prices today might make U.S. wheat more competitive on the world market, but Russian exports are still a concern. After Egypt purchased wheat from Romania and Bulgaria, it was said that Russia is now offering wheat for export around $245-$250 per mt.

  • The potential for a government shutdown may also be weighing on commodities as money flows out of the market. In addition to wheat, many commodities including corn, the soybean complex, and livestock, all posted losses. And as of writing crude oil is also down nearly a dollar per barrel.

  • According to the USDA, as of September 26, approximately 47% of the winter wheat production area is still in drought, while 51% of the spring wheat production area is in drought.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 470.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Total grain stocks (black bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 28, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The funds continue to hold a short position estimated to be north of 140k contracts, likely leading to additional short covering as traders even up positions ahead of month end and Friday’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report, supporting prices.

  • Weekly export sales that came in at the low end of expectations, along with sharply lower soybean oil, weighed on soybean prices, which continues to consolidate into Friday’s USDA report.

  • Soybean oil traded lower with meal higher, as reports of a supply glut for green diesel and plummeting biofuel credits continue to weigh on soybean oil prices, and its share of soybean crush value.

  • Strong export sales, that exceeded expectations and were the highest in 7 weeks, did not lend enough support to the wheat complex to keep it from sliding into the red. While December K.C. made a fresh 2-year low, and Minneapolis a new contract low, Dec. Chicago held support.

  • After making fresh 10-month highs yesterday, the U.S. dollar reversed course to trade lower today, which could be friendly to commodities as it continues to show signs of being overbought, and today’s trade took out yesterday’s low.  

  • To see the current U.S. Drought Monitor, and the drought classification change map courtesy of the USDA, NOAA, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures traded to a fourth consecutive higher high on the daily trade, as December corn futures gained 3 ½ cents for the session. In this recent move, Dec corn has now added 21 cents of value off the contract low. The market is seeing short cover and technical buying leading into the end of the month and tomorrow’s USDA Grain Stocks report.

  • The USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report tomorrow. Expectations are for September 1 grain stocks to be at 1.429 billion bushels. This would be the highest September total in 3 years, and approximately 50 mb above last year’s report.

  • Export sales last week totaled 842,000 mt (33.1 MB) in the weekly Export Sales report released on Thursday morning. Corn sales commitments now total 495 mb for 23/24 and are down 3% from a year ago. Last week’s shipments were 28.7 mb, which is below the pace needed to reach the USDA export target. 

  • Ethanol margins remain strong, supported by strong crude oil prices, and corn usage so far this year has increased over last year. Though early, corn used for ethanol is running 10.5 mb, or 3.6% above last year, to start the marketing year.

  • Short-term weather patterns look drier, which should keep harvest moving forward.  The fresh supply of corn into the pipeline should keep basis and the market under pressure.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower, but came back significantly from their early morning lows. November soybeans are struggling to get back above the 100-day moving average and settled just below it today. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil was lower.

  • For the week ending September 21, the USDA reported an increase of 24.7 mb in soybean export sales for 23/24, which was in line with expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 20.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA U.S. quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released, and average expectations are for ending stocks to come in at 244 mb, which would be down from the USDA’s September estimate of 250 mb. This report will give a better indication to the yields that can be expected, and analysts have been seeing yields closer to 49 bpa rather than the USDA’s last guess of 50.1 bpa.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest should pick up speed in the coming days, with little rain expected over the next week. Drought conditions are still prevalent in the Midwest, and heavy rains would be needed to improve soil moisture levels.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 20.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 21.5 mb, were above the 14.1 mb per week pace needed to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 700 mb for 23/24.

  • Tomorrow, traders will receive the quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports. Pre-report estimates peg September 1st wheat stocks at 1.774 bb, compared with 1.778 bb last year. Additionally, the final production pre-report estimate for all U.S. wheat comes in at 1.731 bb, versus 1.734 bb in August, and 1.650 bb in 2022.

  • Egypt purchased 180,000 mt of wheat, but it was not sourced from Russia. Reportedly, 120,000 mt came from Romania, while the remaining 60,000 mt came from Bulgaria. Despite their dominance, these offers were said to have beaten out Russia’s FOB values by $10-15 per mt.

  • Outside influences are still pressuring wheat. Despite today’s drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, it remains at a very high level that is sure to keep weighing on U.S. exports, wheat in particular, and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures today did not help the situation.

  • The Ukrainian agriculture ministry kept their 2023 grain crop estimate unchanged at 57 mmt. According to officials, their grain harvest this year is better than expected so far.

  • Brazil and Argentina have both issued complaints against a new EU policy, which is requiring certification that Argentine and Brazilian soybean meal is not from deforested areas. This may be difficult to regulate, but in any case, the policy starts October 1st. While this does not have a large impact on wheat, it could have a broader impact on the agricultural trade out of South America overall.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since the beginning of September, December wheat has been mostly sideways and looking for direction. Initial upside resistance remains between 590 – 615, with resistance further up at 645 – 665 if the market breaks out to the upside. To the downside, support continues to reside just below the current range between 570 – 565, the December 2020 low.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 670 for the next level of support. While to the upside, nearby resistance rests near 722 and up further near 750.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside has the market poised to test support near the June ’21 low of 730. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 778 – 791.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 27, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • In addition to sharply higher crude oil and short covering, ethanol production was above expectations at 1,009k b/d for the week ending Friday 9/22 and gave corn a boost to close higher on the day.

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged and being pulled between higher soybean oil and lower meal, November soybeans closed the session in the green with the deferred months gaining on the front.

  • Sharply higher crude oil on lower than expected inventories in today’s EIA report, along with strong palm oil, supported soybean oil through the day, which closed back above both the 100 and 200-day moving averages.

  • The wheat market took another hit as prices slid yet again. Abundant and cheap Russian supplies and a rising U.S. dollar continue to weigh on exports and prices. Today’s close marks a new contract low for Dec. Minneapolis and a fresh two year low for Dec. K.C., while Dec. Chicago flirts with its contract low that was set earlier this month.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day Precipitation Forecast, and Brazil’s average temperatures as well as 8 – 14 day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA and the NWS and Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures traded to a third consecutive higher high on the daily trade as December corn futures gained 3 ½ cents for the session. Despite selling pressure in the wheat market, and higher U.S. dollar, corn futures were supported by a strong move higher in crude oil, and additional short covering.

  • Ethanol margins remain strong, and early in the marketing year corn usage has increased over last year. Estimated corn use last week for ethanol was 97.5 MB. This was better than last week and the same week last year. Strong crude oil prices help support the ethanol margins.

  • Thursday morning will bring the next round of weekly export sales from the USDA. Expectations are for new sales to be from 475,000 mt to 1.2 mmt for last week. Demand has ticked up slightly, helping support corn prices.

  • USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday. While there is variability in corn usage for this report, expectations are for overall grain stocks to be slightly higher than last year’s totals for this report.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day, but the November contract was unable to find a solid close above the 100-day moving average. Support came from a rally in crude oil which was supportive to soybean oil, but soybean meal closed lower.

  • Some analysts are expecting average soybean yields to come in around 49 bpa, and this Friday’s Grain Stocks report is expected to see 22/23 soybean stocks falling slightly to an estimated 242 mb. Ending stocks for 23/24 are currently estimated by the USDA at 220 mb, but that number could end up even smaller.

  • With significant Chinese purchasing, Brazilian soy exports are now seen reaching 6.23 mmt in September which compares to 3.58 mmt in the same month a year ago. Soybean meal exports are expected to reach 2.18 mmt in September compared to 1.75 mmt, as Brazil picks up business from Argentina.

  • Brazilian soybean planting is 1.9% complete as of September 21, but weather conditions have been very hot and dry in the central and northern regions. That weather pattern is expected to change by the end of this week to offer more rain.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market was under pressure today and closed with losses in all three U.S. futures classes. One of the main reasons could be attributed to the jump in the U.S. Dollar Index, which is approaching the 107 mark; it has not reached this point since late November 2022.

  • The decline in U.S. wheat prices is making U.S. offers more competitive on the world market, but exports are still being undercut by other suppliers. Tunisia is said to have purchased Russian wheat for $234 per ton, well below Russia’s official floor of $270. Egypt is also said to be in talks with Russia to purchase up to 1 mmt of wheat. And there is also talk that China purchased between one and four cargoes of wheat from France.

  • The European Union’s soft wheat exports between July 1 and September 24 have reached 6.88 mmt versus 9.42 mmt for the same timeframe last year, representing a 27% decrease.

  • There are still global concerns about wheat production. Argentina’s drought is forecasted to worsen over the coming weeks, and Australia is also still hot and dry.

  • On Friday, traders will receive the quarterly stocks as well as the small grains summary reports. The latter will include final wheat production estimates. Given that it is also the month and quarter end, traders and funds may be squaring up positions beforehand.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since the beginning of September, December wheat has been mostly sideways and looking for direction. Initial upside resistance remains between 590 – 615, with resistance further up at 645 – 665 if the market breaks out to the upside. To the downside, support continues to reside just below the current range between 570 – 565, the December 2020 low.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 670 for the next level of support. While to the upside, nearby resistance rests near 722 and up further near 750.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside has the market poised to test support near the June ’21 low of 730. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 778 – 791.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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Grain Market Insider: September 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The lack of any follow-through flash sales and a rise in harvest activity added resistance to the corn market as it continues to trade sideways with traders squaring positions ahead of Friday’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • A decrease in the crop’s good to excellent ratings and strength from both soybean meal and oil helped to bolster the soybean market that experienced choppy trade on both sides of unchanged before settling just 5 cents off the day’s high in a nearly 19 cent range.

  • Choppy trade dominated the wheat complex as traders continue to square positions ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, with Chicago finishing the strongest of the three classes and the only one higher on the day, while K.C. and Minneapolis both closed in the red, but with minor losses.

  • The US dollar climbed to a fresh 10-month high, and likely added some resistance to commodities, with continued hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve as the primary influence for the strength. 

  • To see the current US, 7-day Precipitation Forecast, and the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures saw a two-sided trade before settling lower. Dec corn lost 1 ½ cents on the session as the market maintains its sideways to slightly higher trade going into Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Corn harvest was 15% complete last week as reported on the weekly Crop Progress report. This total is 2% above the 5-year average but was just slightly below analysts’ expectations.

  • Corn maturity stays well ahead of pace as 70% of the crop was rated to mature last week, 10% higher than the 5-year average of 60%. The high level of maturity should keep crop harvest available to producers.

  • USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday. While there is variability in corn usage for this report, expectations are for overall grain stocks to be slightly higher than last year’s totals for this report.

  • With strong ethanol margins, and some signs of improved export demand, the market is building some optimism that demand could improve going into the harvest window.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after trading mostly lower for much of the day, with both soybean meal and soybean oil ending higher as well. While the November contract reached the 100-day moving average, it was unable to close above it.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a decline in good to excellent ratings by 2 points to 50%, and 12% of the crop was reportedly harvested compared to 5% a week ago and the trade estimate of 14%. Southern states are harvesting more rapidly with Louisiana 79% complete, and Mississippi 61% done. Some analysts are expecting yields to come in below USDA expectations and closer to 49 bpa.

  • Brazilian soybean planting is 1.9% complete as of September 21, but weather conditions have been very hot and dry in the central and northern regions. That weather pattern is expected to change by the end of this week to offer more rain.

  • Outside markets are mixed with stocks lower and energies higher, as another government shutdown looms, though the Senate is working on a short-term funding bill that would keep a shutdown from occurring for another 4-6 weeks.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • According to the USDA, spring wheat harvest is 96% complete as of Sunday September 24. Additionally, winter wheat plantings are said to be 26% complete, just below the 29% average.

  • A third ship is said to have left the Chornomorsk port in Ukraine, traveling via their own “humanitarian corridor.” These vessels are taking on the risk of Russian attack, with new reports of a strike against grain facilities in Ismail, an export area along the Danube River.

  • Canadian 23/24 wheat production is estimated to fall 13% to 29.8 mmt, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. That represents a 3.4 mmt decline from the August report.  

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted a total of 2.2 million hectares of winter crops, with 1.02 million of that being wheat. For wheat that represents a 64% increase year on year. However, there is some concern about drought affecting their winter crops, with little to no rain in the region for the past 30-40 days.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. While the DEC contract posted a new low of 703, it has yet to close below the Sept. 12 low of 709. Currently, support remains between 709 and 703, with the next level of support below the market near 670. If prices turn higher, initial resistance above the market is near 750, with further resistance remaining between 770 – 780.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Short covering and a flash sale to Mexico for 1.661 mmt (65.5 mb) of corn, helped get the ball rolling in the right direction for the corn market, which settled near the day’s highs after trading 3 ½ cents lower in the overnight session.

  • After opening the evening session in the red and trading 12 cents lower. Soybeans rallied back to close near the highs of the day, in part from higher meal and neighboring grain prices, despite sharply lower soybean oil.

  • While soybean meal finished the day higher, soybean oil lost over 3% on the day and closed below the Aug. ’23 low as losses in heating oil (diesel fuel) added pressure to the market. Today’s weakness in bean oil also weighed heavily on Board crush margins which settled 16-1/4 cents lower in the December contracts.

  • A managed fund short position of nearly 125k contracts in wheat likely spurred short covering and position squaring ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and led the Chicago and K.C. contracts to a higher close while Minneapolis finished mixed.

  • The grain complex largely shook off the negative influence of the US dollar, as it traded to its highest level since last November, primarily influenced by the Fed’s hawkish comments that interest rates will stay higher for a longer period of time than anticipated.

  • To see the current US, Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures battle off session lows to close higher on the day. December corn gained 4 cents on the session as bull spreading (buying the front month versus selling the deferred) and short covering supported the market.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed money was holding a net short position of nearly 145,000 contracts. This was one of the largest short positions in the last handful of years.

  • Export demand is a concern, but Mexico stepped into the market with an announcement of a large flash sale. USDA announced that Mexico bought 1.661 mmt (65.4 mb) of US corn. Of that total, 1.049 mmt (41.3 MB) was for the current marketing year with the rest for 2024-25.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis. Corn harvest was 9% complete last week. Analysts are looking for the crop to be 17% harvested in this week’s crop progress report.

  • Weekly Corn Exports inspections are improving, totaling 26 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 21, 2023. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 77 mb, up 16% from last year at this time frame. USDA is estimating corn exports at 2.050 bb in 2023-24, up 23% from the previous year. The total overall pace of corn exports is still lacking the pace for USDA targets.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 9,906 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 144,815 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after rebounding from lows earlier in the day. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil traded lower near support at the 200-day moving average. Soybeans are under pressure from the start of US harvest and the new Brazilian supplies.

  • The Crop Progress report will be released later this afternoon, and expectations are that 10 to 12% of the crop will be reported as harvested with conditions expected to remain unchanged at 52% good to excellent. Weather is expected to be mostly dry apart from the eastern Corn Belt, which should speed up harvest.

  • In Brazil, conditions remain very dry in central and northern Brazil with above average temperatures where soybeans were recently planted, but there have been indications that the country’s wet season could begin by the end of the week. In the US, dry conditions have some analysts convinced that yields could come in closer to 49 bpa.

  • Crude oil has rallied by 30% since the end of June which has made biodiesel production more profitable. Crush margins have been significantly more attractive to processors lately as soybeans have lost more value than soy products.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 27,983 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net long 45,832 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 16.6 mb were decent and brought the total 23/24 inspections to 207 mb. However, inspections are still running behind the pace needed to meet the 700 mb export goal.

  • According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report on Friday, funds were net short about 97,000 contracts of Chicago wheat as of September 19. Factoring in all three futures classes brings that short position to about 125,000 contracts.

  • This Friday traders will receive the quarterly Grain Stocks report, as well as the small grains summary report. With funds holding such a large short position, the wheat market could be primed for a short covering rally if those reports are friendly.

  • Globally, weather is a concern for the wheat market, especially in Australia. With their drought expected to get worse, some analysts are forecasting their wheat exports to drop as low as 17 mmt as compared to the record 32.5 mmt last year.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said that grain exports between September 1 and 24 totaled just 1.57 mmt. That corresponds to a 51% decrease from a year’s 3.21 mmt.  While they gave no official explanation, many believe that blocked or damaged ports, and Russian attacks on the Danube River terminals are to blame.

  • According to India’s food secretary, their nation does not have a shortage of wheat, but may sell from their reserves to control domestic prices. This is despite curbing exports and the fact that as of September 24, India’s monsoon rains are 6% below normal.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 12,666 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 96,805 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 818 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 12,330 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,816 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 15,177 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: September 22, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures recovered from Thursday’s sell off managing to close a penny higher on the week, concerns over slow exports continue to plague corn as harvest continues to ramp up.

  • Soybeans were slightly higher to end the week, the trade awaits harvest reports as combines have just started rolling across the Midwest.

  • Soybean meal futures were weaker while front month soybean oil found support at the 200-day moving average and followed soybeans and crude oil higher to end the week.

  • All three wheats closed higher to end the week but remain near recent lows and under pressure from a continued strong US Dollar.

  • To see the current US 7-day precipitation forecast, and 8 – 14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • The corn market saw some price recovery after Thursday’s risk off trade. December corn gained 2 cents on the session but found enough strength to turn 1 cent higher for the week, closing 9 ½ cents off the contract low from Tuesday morning.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis. Corn harvest was 9% complete last week and has advanced this week, despite some areas receiving rain. 

  • Concerns regarding barge traffic on the Mississippi River due to low water levels will limit the corn market and likely pressure basis. Grain barge traffic on the Mississippi River last week was down 38% year-over-year and 76% below the 3-year average. 

  • Corn demand will stay a focus in the weeks ahead. Ethanol margins are good, but higher gas prices could limit ethanol demand. Current corn export sales commitments for the marketing year are at 462 mb, which is down 6% year-over-year. The USDA is forecasting a 23% rise in US corn exports for the marketing year.

  • Corn futures are trying to carve out a bottom, and overall price action was improved this week.  The corn market will need additional short covering and follow through next week to mark a possible turn higher in the near term.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher but backed off from higher gains earlier in the day. Soybean meal started the day higher but ended lower, and soybean oil ended higher. Trade is quiet to lower with harvest beginning.

  • Argentina plans to plant the same number of acres this season as last but is anticipating a much higher production as drought should not be as much a factor this season. Brazil’s crop is forecast to grow significantly to 162.4 mmt, which is much bigger than the previous record crop.

  • Basis is expected to erode further into harvest as low water levels on the Mississippi River once again affect barge traffic. Heavy rains are expected from the northwestern Plains through Texas and Arkansas over the week which could help improve water levels.

  • There were no soybean sales reported today, and yesterday’s export sales report was far below expectations, but there were large soybean meal sales recorded with some being record large. It seems that the US is picking up some soymeal business from Argentina after the drought cut their production.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat stopped the bleeding today with a positive close, however, it still remains near contract lows as exports weigh on the market. Additionally, the fact that the Federal Reserve may issue interest rate increases for a longer timeframe pressured commodities yesterday, and may continue to do so in the near future.

  • News outlets have reported that another vessel has left Ukraine and is destined for Egypt, carrying 18,000 tons of wheat. Additionally, three new vessels are headed for Ukrainian ports to be loaded with grain and iron ore that will be shipped to China and Egypt.

  • The International Grains Council increased their estimates of world wheat and corn stocks. According to the IGC, the 23/24 stockpiles are projected at 588 mmt of grain, with 263 mmt of that being wheat. That is a 2 mmt increase in the wheat estimate; the decline in production may be offset by less demand.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is now 14% complete, totaling 29.8 mmt so far. That total includes 22.19 mmt of wheat (which is up 16% year on year).

  • Due to falling water levels, barge traffic on the Mississippi River is decreasing, while shipping rates are on the rise. According to the USDA, total shipments have declined to 130k tons of grain through September 16th. This compares to 173k tons the previous week. This is also a concern for the availability and cost of fertilizer for those areas that rely on river shipments.

  • According to the USDA, as of September 19th, about 59% of the US spring wheat production area remains in drought conditions. Additionally, 47% of the winter wheat area is also in drought.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center