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Grain Market Insider: October 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Friendly supply and demand numbers from today’s USDA WASDE report, a reported sale of almost 125,000 mt of corn to Guatemala, and carryover strength from soybeans lifted corn to within 1 ¼ cents of 500, before it closed 8 cents higher on the day.

  • A surprise move, from the USDA that kept U.S. soybean ending stocks unchanged from last month, where a 13 mb increase was expected, and an additional sale of 295,000 mt to unknown destinations fueled the fire for a 37-cent rally in November soybeans.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were strong performers today, lending additional support to soybeans. The USDA left meal ending stocks unchanged from last month, but increased exports by 200,000 tons, while bean oil ending stocks were reduced by 85 mil lbs.

  • Spillover strength from sharply higher soybeans, and higher corn, supported all three wheat classes to close near the top of their respective ranges despite a neutral to bearish U.S. supply and demand update from the USDA.

  • To see the current U.S. 5-day precipitation forecast and 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467.75 to a high last week of 499.00. Since mid-August, the psychological 500.00 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any bullish catalyst from the coming USDA Supply and Demand report this Thursday, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Insider did recommend making sales into that summer rally when Dec ’23 was around 624.00, so for now the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider re-owning those bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without a bullish catalyst on this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700.00 or 800.00 that the call options would protect those sold bushels. 

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures used a friendly USDA report and a strong soybean market to post moderate gains on the session. December corn gained 8 cents to $4.96 but failed to push through overhead resistance at $4.98 ¾ from last week.

  • The USDA lowered expected corn yield to 173.0 bushels/acre, down 0.8 bushels from last month and below market expectations. Yield losses from last year were noted in many corn producing states, but Missouri (-12.4%), Minnesota (-8.2%) and Illinois (-6.5%) were key states impacted by this season’s overall hot and dry weather.

  • The reduced yield lowered overall production by 70 mb versus last month. The combination of lower production and lower than expected grain stocks on September 29th, lowered corn carryout to 2.111 bb. This was down 210 mb from last month and 27 mb below expectations. In order to reach the final carryout total, the USDA lowered feed usage and export demand by 25 MB for each category.

  • Corn harvest pace moved to 34% complete on the weekly crop progress numbers. The weather forecasts have kept the harvest pace strong for the first half of the week, but projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week, and into the weekend, may likely slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Corn export sales for the last week are expected to range from 600,000 – 900,000 mt for new crop and up to 150,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. Weekly ethanol demand saw good production as corn used for ethanol grind is trending 5.1% above last year’s levels.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256.75 on the front month. Over the last seven trading days, Nov ’23 has traded largely between 1260.00 and 1280.00.  If there were to be a bullish catalyst from this Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report and Nov ’23 subsequently closed over 1287.25, that could signal the possibility that a harvest/fall low is in. Bigger picture, since May 2023, the front month contract has traded in a range from 1256.75 on the downside to 1435.00 on the topside. If you are a newer subscriber to Insider and were not with us back in the summer, Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310-1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given those sales recommendations were already made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many if any sales, Insider is content to hold tight on next sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider buying those sold bushels back with July or August ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans posted a significantly higher close today, fueled by a bullish WASDE report and big gains in soybean meal. Soybean oil was higher too, but larger gains may have been held back by lower crude oil and continued weakness in world veg oil prices. November soybeans had a sharp reversal and closed at the 20-day moving average.

  • Today’s WASDE report featured several bullish surprises for soybeans. Yield was pegged at 49.6 bpa, below trade expectations and far below the most recent guess of 50.1 bpa. Production was lowered, and soybean ending stocks were held steady from September at a very tight 220 mb, below trade expectations. World ending stocks were also lowered to 115.62 mmt from last month’s guess of 119.25 mmt.

  • With U.S. soybean ending stocks so tight at 220 mb, further increases in demand could add more bullish fuel to the market. China has already been a more active buyer of soybeans out of the PNW as Brazilian supplies dwindle.

  • In South America, Argentina remains very dry from last season and this trend is not expected to improve. Northern Brazil is also too dry, while the southern regions are too wet, and this comes as planting is underway. It may be too early to focus on South American weather, but it will come into focus in the coming months and could drive prices higher if the weather pattern doesn’t improve.

Above: Since the end of August, the soybean market has been in a downtrend, and though it has been consolidating, it remains oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Initial support to the downside lies near the recent low of 1254, with further support between 1238 – 1214, while resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Today’s USDA report elicited a bullish reaction after some of the numbers came in below expectations. Wheat was more of a mixed bag but still was able to partake in the upswing. U.S. 23/24 wheat carryout came in at 669 mb, above expectations of 646 mb and 615 mb in September. World 23/24 ending stocks were reduced slightly from 258.6 mmt in September to 258.1 mmt. However, the USDA did lower global wheat production by almost 4 mmt to 783.43 mmt.

  • With today’s data out of the way the question is, can this rally be sustained? Often the market has a kneejerk reaction on report day but may set back once the dust settles. One thing that could continue to weigh on the market is continued high inflation. Today’s CPI data came in at 3.7%, a little more than expected. In turn, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped higher today and if it continues the trend higher, it will add more pressure to wheat.

  • Rumors that China is asking for U.S. SRW wheat pricing out of the Gulf is an encouraging sign that the recent low prices may have stimulated some buying interest. It remains to be seen if this rumor will be confirmed or not, but the export side of the market could use a boost. The USDA left their wheat export estimate unchanged in the report at 700 mb.

  • The developing war in the Middle East, and the uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine, are both factors that could continue to affect commodity markets, especially wheat. Russia continues to overshadow other exporters, with reports that private offers are as low as $235 per metric ton, despite their government’s preferred $270 floor.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at a 68-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract as bear spreading due to fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to 550, while the July ’24 contract remains near 625. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market breaks further, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a down trend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750, it may signal that a fall low is in place which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat.  Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further and Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating after finding initial support just below the market near 660. If the market resumes its downtrend, the next levels of support below 660 come in around 630 and then 575, while resistance to the upside may be found between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a down trend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Insider made a sales recommendation near 820 in the July rally. With that sale, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to nearly a 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Grain Market Insider: October 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report lent support to the corn market as traders anticipate a slightly lower carryout, while a swift harvest pace, and weakness in wheat, soybeans, and crude oil added upward resistance to corn prices, as the market settled just off the day’s highs.

  • After trading higher in the overnight session, and despite two flash sales totaling 12 mb, November soybeans traded lower throughout the day to close near the bottom of the range on harvest pressure, and as traders set positions in anticipation of potentially bearish USDA numbers in tomorrow’s report.

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged, soybean meal closed lower on the day, though just a mere 40 cents/ton. While further contributing to a weaker soybean trade, soybean oil continued its slide lower on weaker world veg oils and lower biofuel RIN values.

  • Position squaring led the day with two-sided trade that had all three wheat classes closing in the red as traders anticipate higher ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA report.

  • To see the current U.S. 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and South American average temperatures from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467.75 to a high last week of 499.00. Since mid-August, the psychological 500.00 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any bullish catalyst from the coming USDA Supply and Demand report this Thursday, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Insider did recommend making sales into that summer rally when Dec ’23 was around 624.00, so for now the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider re-owning those bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without a bullish catalyst on this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700.00 or 800.00 that the call options would protect those sold bushels. 

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • In pre-USDA report trade, corn futures saw prices trade higher as funds were likely squaring positions for tomorrow’s report. December corn added 2 ½ cents as weakness in wheat, soybeans, and crude oil markets limited gains on the session.

  • The USDA will release the latest crop production and supply/demand numbers on Thursday morning.  Expectations are for corn yield to be trimmed slightly to 173.5 bushels/acre. The lower possible production, plus the tighter than expected grain stocks should lower corn carryout slightly to an expected 2.138 billion bushels.

  • Corn harvest pace moved to 34% complete on the weekly crop progress numbers. This was slightly below market expectations, but ahead of the 5-year average of 31%. The ongoing harvest pressure added resistance to the market’s upside potential.

  • The weather forecasts have kept the harvest pace strong for the first half of the week, but projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week, and into the weekend, may slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt.

  • South American weather will become a potential factor after Thursday’s USDA report. Dry weather in the north and excessive moisture in the south regions may slow soybean planting, which could push back the 2nd crop corn planting. The weather concerns are extremely early in the crop year but could be more important as the market moves closer to the end of the year.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256.75 on the front month. Over the last seven trading days, Nov ’23 has traded largely between 1260.00 and 1280.00.  If there were to be a bullish catalyst from this Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report and Nov ’23 subsequently closed over 1287.25, that could signal the possibility that a harvest/fall low is in. Bigger picture, since May 2023, the front month contract has traded in a range from 1256.75 on the downside to 1435.00 on the topside. If you are a newer subscriber to Insider and were not with us back in the summer, Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310-1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given those sales recommendations were already made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many if any sales, Insider is content to hold tight on next sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider buying those sold bushels back with July or August ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and were below the previous low of 12-56-3/4 from June as they are under pressure from harvest and in anticipation of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Both soybean meal and oil were lower with pressure from crude oil and world veg oils.

  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb. It is unknown if the USDA will make adjustments to demand in this report.

  • World veg oil prices continue to be weak as Ukrainian sunflower oil’s premium to palm oil fell to just $45/mt from $400 in recent days. Additionally, here in the U.S., lower biofuel RIN values continue to weigh on bean oil prices. 

  • Brazil is currently in the middle of planting and early estimates are calling for a record 23/24 production of 162 mmt, but the country continues to deal with weather issues. In the northern region, light showers are expected but it is likely not enough, and in the southern region conditions remain far too wet.

  • On the heels of yesterday’s impressive export inspections number of 1.036 mmt, sales were reported today of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China for the 23/24 period, and 213,000 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. U.S. exports have picked up recently out of the PNW as Brazil runs tight on supplies.

Above: Since the end of August, the soybean market has been in a downtrend, and though it has been consolidating, it remains oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Initial support to the downside lies near the recent low of 1254, with further support between 1238 – 1214, while resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. 

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Tomorrow traders will receive the latest USDA data on the WASDE report. Pre-report estimates of U.S. 23/24 wheat carryout come out to an average of 646 mb, compared to 615 mb in September. The world 23/24 average carryout estimate is projected at 258.8 mmt, up just slightly from 258.6 mmt last month.

  • According to the USDA, winter wheat planting is 57% complete with 29% of the crop emerged. With most of the Midwest dry, there is some concern about emergence. However, some rain across the upper Midwest and northern Plains is expected over the coming days.

  • Even though western Australia is too dry, and it is affecting their wheat production, Australian wheat futures are actually trading lower as yields are coming in better than expected.

  • With low global prices in general, it will be a tough road ahead to see U.S. futures rally. Russia continues to dominate exports, with talk of a sale to Egypt for 480,000 mt at $265 per ton FOB. In response to this sale, EU wheat is said to have dropped to just $250 per ton.

  • In contrast to the above point, SovEcon believes Russia’s wheat exports are expected to decline due to slowing demand. This could be tied to their Ministry of Agriculture trying to prevent sales below the $270 per ton price floor. Russia’s October wheat exports may be 3.9-4.4 mmt, down from 4.5 mmt last year.

  • For the 23/24 season, French soft wheat exports are expected to rise to 17.25 mmt, versus a projected 17.16 mmt in September. This is according to the French crop office, FranceAgriMer. In addition, stocks were reduced to 2.77 mmt vs 2.92 mmt previously.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. There is plenty of time to market the 2024 crop and with the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, many uncertainties remain that could shock prices higher, like geopolitical instability and dryness in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 750, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market breaks further, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 700 – 750 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian exports continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and Insider will also be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales if prices turn around and rally north of 775. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating after finding initial support just below the market near 660. If the market resumes its downtrend, the next levels of support below 660 come in around 630 and then 575, while resistance to the upside may be found between 710 – 722.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada, and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices move towards 750 – 800, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices, Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally towards 800, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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Grain Market Insider: October 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Harvest pressure and carryover weakness from the wheat market conspired to pressure the corn market to a lower finish following choppy trade in today’s session.

  • Strong export inspections that were well above expectations supported the front end of the soybean market, that rallied from its lows to finish within 2 cents of the day’s high.

  • Soybean meal also rallied along with the bean market while soybean oil found pressure from the weak biofuel RIN values and lower world veg oil prices.

  • While the wheat complex continues to consolidate, all three classes traded lower on the day, in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion, as the market refocused on lackluster demand, with weak weekly export inspections and year-to-date totals that fall behind last year by 29%.

  • The U.S. Dollar traded lower today as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials stated that the recent increase in bond yields may reduce the need for additional rate hikes. Additionally, at the dollar’s peak on October 3, the Bank of Japan sold U.S. Dollars to support the yen. Any further weakness in the dollar will likely help U.S. exports be more competitive in the world market.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and South American 1 week precipitation forecasts from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467.75 to a high last week of 499.00. Since mid-August, the psychological 500.00 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any bullish catalyst from the coming USDA Supply and Demand report this Thursday, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Insider did recommend making sales into that summer rally when Dec ’23 was around 624.00, so for now the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider re-owning those bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without a bullish catalyst on this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700.00 or 800.00 that the call options would protect those sold bushels. 

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures finished lower on the day as harvest pressure and selling in the wheat market weighed on the corn futures. December corn finished 2 ¾ cents lower but held above the $4.85 initial support level.

  • The USDA will release the next round of crop progress numbers on Tuesday afternoon. Corn harvest is expected to be near 35% complete.

  • Weekly export inspections for last week were released today after the Columbus Day holiday yesterday. Last week, USDA shipped 551,000 MT (21.7 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the 23/24 marketing year are at 128 mb, up 14% from last year. The USDA is forecasting corn exports to be 2.050 bb, a 23% increase over the last marketing year.

  • The weather forecast for the first half of the week looks overall friendly to keep harvest pace moving along. Projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week going into the weekend may slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt.

  • The market will likely stay choppy this week as the market prepares for the USDA’s WASDE report on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for corn yield and production to be reduced slightly. Any possible demand adjustments will be the key to determining the carryout projections.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256.75 on the front month. Over the last seven trading days, Nov ’23 has traded largely between 1260.00 and 1280.00.  If there were to be a bullish catalyst from this Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report and Nov ’23 subsequently closed over 1287.25, that could signal the possibility that a harvest/fall low is in. Bigger picture, since May 2023, the front month contract has traded in a range from 1256.75 on the downside to 1435.00 on the topside. If you are a newer subscriber to Insider and were not with us back in the summer, Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310-1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given those sales recommendations were already made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many if any sales, Insider is content to hold tight on next sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider buying those sold bushels back with July or August ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in the front months after a lower open, while November ‘24 beans closed slightly lower. Soybean meal also ended higher, while soybean oil was lower amid a down day in world veg oils. Solid export inspections were supportive for the soy complex today.

  • Export inspections were the best that have been seen in months. The USDA initially released the inspections number at 1.643 mmt, but that turned out to be a slight error with the real number coming in at 1.036 mmt, still very impressive.

  • Supplies of soybeans in Brazil appear to be tightening, giving the U.S. a good opportunity to export beans. China has been an active buyer out of the PNW for October through December, and barge rates have been coming down, so that may provide more opportunity, though soybeans will need a continued bump in demand to justify a rally.

  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb. It is unknown if the USDA will make adjustments to demand in this report.

Above: Since the end of August, the soybean market has been in a downtrend, and though it has been consolidating, it remains oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Initial support to the downside lies near the recent low of 1254, with further support between 1238 – 1214, while resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat reversed yesterday’s trend, finishing today’s session with double-digit losses in Chicago and K.C., despite rising tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea. Paris milling wheat futures also lost about 2.75 to 3.25 Euros today, suggesting that today’s negativity might not be fundamental in nature. Rather, the funds may have added to short positions, and begun positioning ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.

  • Fundamentally, global wheat production is setting a bullish backdrop for the marketplace. Growing regions in Australia and Argentina are very dry, and southern Brazil has seen enough rain to cause flooding. Which is also causing concern about their wheat production and quality. With that said, western and central Brazil, along with Argentina, have better chances for good rain in some of the longer range forecasts.

  • Today’s wheat export inspections data initially showed inspections of about 395,000 mt, which was incorrect. A correction was later issued that totaled 265,242 mt, or 9.75 mb.

  • Ag Resource is projecting an Argentine wheat crop of 15.2 mmt, compared to the USDA estimate of 16.5 mmt. And because of the El Nino weather pattern, some analysts are estimating that Australia’s crop could be down by as much as 50%.

  • Although they raised their corn harvest estimate to 12.1 mmt from 11.5 mmt, France kept their soft wheat production estimate unchanged at 35.1 mmt, which compares to last year’s 33.7 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region.Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 600 – 650 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. There is plenty of time to market the 2024 crop and with the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, many uncertainties remain that could shock prices higher, like geopolitical instability and dryness in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 750, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market breaks further, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 700 – 750 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian exports continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and Insider will also be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales if prices turn around and rally north of 775. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating after finding initial support just below the market near 660. If the market resumes its downtrend, the next levels of support below 660 come in around 630 and then 575, while resistance to the upside may be found between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada, and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices move towards 750 – 800, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices, Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally towards 800, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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Grain Market Insider: October 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from higher wheat and crude oil on Mid-East geopolitical concerns, gave way to choppy trade and harvest pressure in the corn market as the day wore on, with December corn closing near the bottom of its range.

  • Choppy trade dominated the soybean market that settled mid-range and lower on the day in the November contract as weakness from sharply lower soybean oil outweighed overnight strength and higher meal prices.

  • Despite sharply higher crude oil prices, soybean oil succumbed to technical selling as the December contract broke to its lowest prices in three months. Today’s weakness not only pressured soybeans but also Board crush margins, which lost 8 ½ cents in the December contracts.

  • In addition to the uncertainty surrounding less-than-ideal growing conditions in the southern hemisphere, rising geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, and now the Middle East, supported the wheat complex which traded higher through the day after Chicago and K.C. gapped higher on the open Sunday night.

  • Before retreating from its highs in the day session, the U.S. Dollar was jolted higher overnight in a flight to quality trade from the geopolitical uncertainty generated in the Middle East from the Hamas attacks on Israel over the weekend.  In recent weeks, the dollar’s resurgence has added headwinds to U.S. exports by making them more expensive on the world market.

  • To see the current U.S. 3 – 4 week Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures were very choppy throughout the day after losing overnight strength, closing 3 ¾ cents lower on the session. Middle East geopolitical tensions and harvest pressure limited any rallies in the corn market today.

  • Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East with the Israeli-Hamas war occurring over the weekend brought a lot of volatility and nervous trade to the marketplace. A strong move higher in crude oil prices supported the grain markets, but that was replaced by a general “risk-off” trade in commodities on the day.

  • Harvest pressure remains a constant in the corn market as harvest ramps up. Due to the Columbus Day holiday, the USDA will not release crop progress pace until Tuesday afternoon. Weather this week looks friendly to keep harvest moving until a rain system moves in towards the end of the week.

  • The corn market lacked any news on the session as the Columbus Day holiday paused Export Inspections report, Crop Progress report, or any potential export sales from over the weekend. Those reports and information will be released tomorrow.

  • The market will likely stay choppy this week as the market prepares for the USDA WASDE report on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for production to decrease slightly. 

  • Managed money continues to hold a large net short position in the corn market. On Last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report, funds were net short 159,433 contracts of corn.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 9,173 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 159,433 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower after opening higher. The weekend news regarding Israel declaring war on Hamas, and Iran reportedly backing the attack, sent crude oil higher and initially brought most commodities higher as well, but they faded throughout the day. Additionally, soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil closed lower.

  • This Thursday, the USDA WASDE report will be released, and early estimates are calling for soybean yields to be lowered slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s report. Production is estimated to come in at 4.134 billion bushels, slightly below last month’s USDA estimate.

  • In Brazil, soybean supplies are reportedly getting thin and could open up significant export opportunities for the U.S. for October and November out of the PNW. The U.S. is currently the only offer for that time frame.

  • Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now 10.1% planted, which is up 4.8% from the previous week. Planting is also going more slowly than expected in Brazil, as the Northern and Central regions deal with dryness, and the Southern regions deal with too much moisture.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,057 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net long 5,001 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market received a boost today as the trade added more war premium. Along with new Russian attacks on Odessa, over the weekend there was also some uncertainty in the Middle East. Hamas attacked Israel with missiles, and Iran is also said to be involved. Given that wheat is a staple in this region, it sparked a reaction from the market. As an aside, the Hamas attacks also sent crude oil sharply higher due to concern about production out of that part of the world.

  • Globally there are growing concerns for multiple wheat producers. Western Australia is facing drought, and in Argentina, some analysts are projecting a wheat crop of 15 mmt or less; the USDA is estimating 16.5 mmt currently. Because of this, it is being said that Argentina’s farmers are selling wheat at the slowest pace in seven years.

  • In the face of danger from Russia, 12 ships are said to be waiting to enter Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor to transport grain. Although, Russia remains the dominant wheat exporter, with IKAR estimating their exports at 64.5 mmt of grain, compared with 64.0 mmt previously. In addition, they also increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.2 mmt to 141.2 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Following the September 29 Grain Stocks report, the December contract broke out of its previous range to the downside and has since rallied back. That previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which the market will need more bullish input to rally through.  If it cannot, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,404 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 98,788 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,055 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 23,827 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,329 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 20,986 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Grain Market Insider: October 6, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following the highest close in over a month, the corn market experienced choppy trade throughout the day. While overbought conditions added to the pressure from the financial markets, December corn remains above the 50-day moving average.

  • Despite overnight strength on follow through buying from yesterday’s gains, the soybean market chopped lower through the day, along with soybean meal, on the threat of higher borrowing costs and stronger headwinds in the export market from the higher dollar.  Soybean oil, being more oversold and less influenced by export business, maintained a positive close, but well off the day’s highs.

  • While concerns regarding escalation of the Ukraine war continue to reverberate through the wheat market, the shock to the U.S. dollar and reports of higher Ukrainian wheat production helped pressure all three wheat classes as they gave up half of Thursday’s gains.

  • The U.S. dollar and interest rates traded sharply higher following today’s monthly unemployment and September payroll figures. Unemployment was steady, while payroll numbers were about double expectations. The initial reactions weighed heavily on the grain markets at the 8:30 open. Although the financial markets relaxed through the day, the grain markets remained under pressure.

  • To see the current 5 day Precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day, and 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Grain markets traded lower on the session, pressuring corn futures to 4-5 cent losses as prices pulled back from the $5.00 a bushel resistance level. December corn lost 5 ½ cents on the day, but remained 15 ¼ cents higher on the week, posting its highest weekly close since August.

  • Grain markets were pressured by a surge higher in the U.S. dollar and interest rates after the September Jobs report was released, showing better job growth than expected. This could possibly lead to longer-term interest rate hikes and tighter monetary policy.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and the pace should reflect strong progress this week. The forecast still looks friendly overall to keep harvest moving along at a good pace. Harvest pressure will limit the corn market as fresh supplies pressure basis and the cash market. The National Corn Index is trading nearly 23 cents under the December futures price.

  • The recent drop in crude oil and gasoline prices have tightened ethanol margins. Ethanol production started out the marketing year relatively strong, but a tighter margin could slow that pace.

  • The corn market rally may still be limited, as premiums for Brazilian corn have slipped recently, still keeping Brazilian corn cheaper than U.S. bushels on the export market. As planting is beginning for this year’s South American corn, some weather issues may pose more challenging conditions in portions of Argentina and Brazil, which could limit production.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans opened the day higher, but ended with a lower close following the Jobs report this morning, which saw higher employment growth than expected and sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for a longer period. Soybean meal ended lower and soybean oil was higher.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 9 cents, December meal lost 9.10 dollars, and December soybean oil lost 0.48 cents. As soy products fall, crush margins have fallen as well and given up some incentive for soybean processors to crush beans in large numbers.

  • Prices found support yesterday after the export sales report showed better numbers than expected, and soybean meal exports were reportedly up 32% from a year ago, with limited Argentinian supplies following their drought. Argentina remains in drought conditions, which will be something to pay attention to as they begin planting.

  • The northern region of Brazil is currently too dry, but in the South, it is far too wet to plant with floods occurring and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast over the next 10 days. With U.S. ending stocks slated to be tight, any weather impact on Brazil’s soybean crop could be friendly for prices.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The Labor Department’s report indicated that 336,000 jobs were added in the month of September, which exceeded expectations and caused an increase in the U.S. Dollar Index. That may have opened the floodgates for lower wheat, even though the index was actually negative on the day at the grain market close.

  • More details have emerged about yesterday’s reports of a ship hitting a Russian mine. Reportedly, it was a Turkish cargo ship called the Kafkametler that struck a mine in the Black Sea. Damage was minor and the crew was safe. The location of the mine was near Romania, and according to one Ukrainian official, it may have been there from last year (not a new mine placed by Russia). However, there are concerns that Russia could plant their own mines to target cargo ships.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest as of October 6th is 22% above last year, at 32.3 mmt of grain collected. Of that total, 22.2 mmt is wheat which represents a 16% year on year increase.

  • Australia had the driest September on record with at, or near, record temperatures across the country. Their wheat crop production is likely to suffer greatly, especially because the El Nino pattern is expected to keep them warm and dry.

  • Wheat is also struggling in Argentina. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 33% of their wheat crop is poor to very poor, up from 27% last week. Some southern areas did receive rain that is certainly welcomed, but more widespread coverage will be needed.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Following the September 29 Grain Stocks report, the December contract broke out of its previous range to the downside and has since rallied back. That previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which the market will need more bullish input to rally through.  If it cannot, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: October 5, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Front month corn futures pushed through upside resistance today to close at their highest level since early August. Strong weekly export sales and a push higher in wheat prices aided the rally.

  • After trading lower early in the day, soybeans ended the session higher on South American weather worries and strength from both corn and wheat.

  • Soybean meal futures, which remain technically oversold, rallied higher today after testing support. Soybean oil did not join rally in soybeans and soybean meal, but rather followed crude oil lower yet again today.

  • Wheat futures led the push higher in grains today, closing up double digits across all three classes. Heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as wheats’ technically oversold condition are attributed to today’s rally.  

  • To see the current 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • December corn futures pushed through resistance at the $4.90 levels and saw a rounds of short covering and technical buying to post the contracts highest daily close since Aug 8, gaining 11 ½ cents on the day.

  • Weekly export sales of corn were strong at 1.82 mmt (71.5 mb) of old crop and 611,400 mt (24.1 mb) of new. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week, which was expected. China did step into the corn market with a small purchase (5.5 mb) of U.S. corn.

  • Export shipments were 24.1 mb last week, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA export targets. Corn sales now total 556 mb for 2023-24, up 9% from last year.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and pace should continue to be firm this week. The forecast still looks overall friendly to keep harvest moving along at a good pace. Harvest pressure will limit the corn market as fresh supplies pressure the basis and the cash market.

  • The corn market rally may still be limited as premiums for Brazilian corn have slipped recently, keeping Brazilian corn still cheaper than U.S. bushels on the export market. Brazilian corn exports for 2023 through September are on record pace, and October exports are expected to reach another record near 8.9 MMT.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a lower open and continued to hold above support at the 12.56 level. Technically, soybeans are oversold and weather concerns in South America could push prices higher. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil closed lower.

  • A week from today is the October WASDE report and it is possible that soybean production gets increased based off early yield estimates, which may be higher than expected. Even with a slight increase in production, stocks will be very tight, and Brazil may be facing some weather troubles due to the El Nino pattern occurring.

  • The northern region of Brazil is currently too dry, but in the South, it is far too wet to plant with floods occurring and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast over the next 10 days. With US ending stocks slated to be so tight, any weather impact on Brazil’s soybean crop could be very friendly for prices.

  • Export sales for soybeans were decent with the USDA reporting increases of 29.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 24.7 mb were below the 35.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were China, Spain, and Bangladesh.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 14.3 mb were above the 13.9 mb pace necessary to meet the 700 mb export goal. However, total export commitments at 347 mb are down 14% from last year.

  • The jump in wheat today was likely both technical and fundamental in nature. From the technical perspective, wheat was oversold and due for a correction to the upside. That may have been initiated on the fundamental side by more war premium being added into the marketplace. A Russian missile attack was said to have killed 49 civilians; additionally, there are reports that a vessel on the way to Ukraine struck a sea mine, but this is currently unconfirmed.

  • On top of the above news, there is also talk of UK intelligence warning that Russia may be planting additional mines, meant to target civilian vessels. Meanwhile, there are reports that Germany will send air defenses to Ukraine to thwart Russian attacks on grain shipments.

  • Also helping wheat today were higher Matif futures, and a lower US Dollar Index. As of this writing, the index is headed for a second consecutive lower close. Above 106 currently, it does remain at a relatively high level, but if the dollar continues to decline, it should ease pressure on US exports.

  • Western Argentina and Australia remain too dry. Rains last week in Argentina were not enough to replenish soil moisture levels. According to the Rosario Exchange, they need about 15-20 milliliters of rain to stabilize the crop, but they are expected to get less than 10 ml over the next several days (according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange).

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: October 4, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After rallying off the day’s lows, December corn once again hit resistance near 490 and the 50 day moving average as carryover weakness from crude oil and harvest pressure weighed on the market into the close.

  • After trading both sides of unchanged, November soybeans settled near even on the day and 12 cents off the high as bull spreading (buying nearby contracts versus the deferred) brought support to the front end relative to the back on the recent uptick in Chinese demand.

  • Weakness in crude oil added pressure to soybean oil, while meal followed through on yesterday’s strength before encountering resistance at the 20 day moving average.

  • The wheat market continues to be volatile relative to headline news. Reports of more vessels using Ukraine’s export corridor to load grain out of their Black Sea ports weighed heavily on all three wheat classes in today’s trade.

  • To see the current U.S. 7 day Precipitation forecast, and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • An overall quiet day in the corn market as the Dec futures failed to push through resistance at 490 and closed the day down 1 ½ cents. A strong selloff in crude oil futures and harvest pressure limited the potential in the corn market on the session.

  • The crude oil market traded over 5% lower during the sessions as the latest Energy Information Association report saw gasoline demand drop to the lowest levels since 1998 last week, striking demand fears into an overbought crude oil market.

  • The corn market continues to be supported by a slight uptick in demand news. Mexico added a new flash sale of 196,000 mt of corn split between 23/24 and 24/25 marketing years, and ethanol grind remains strong as current corn usage for ethanol production is trending 5.5% greater than last year.

  • The USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. Corn is expected to show a strong week with new sales for the 23/24 marketing year to range from 1.4-2.0 mmt, and 24/25 marketing year sales to range from 650,000 mt to 750,000 mt. Most of these sales are known with last week’s reported purchases from Mexico.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and pace should continue to be firm this week.  Harvest pressure will limit the corn markets as fresh supplies pressure the basis and the cash market.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans were a mixed bag today as they traded higher in the overnight session, but faded into the day. Then, they managed to close just slightly higher in the two front months, with the deferred contracts lower. Soybean meal ended the day higher and soybean oil lower on lower crude oil and palm oil prices.

  • On the technical side, November soybeans found strong support at the previous June low of 1256 ¾ and moved higher. Soybeans are technically oversold and may have an opportunity to move higher. In addition, non-commercial traders have a net long position of just 30,058 contracts as of last week, which is relatively low for this time of year.

  • Yesterday’s sale of 9.7 mb of soybeans to China during their Golden Week holiday was encouraging, but U.S. new crop bean sales are at just 16.2 mmt compared to 25.5 mmt last year. At this point, U.S. soybeans are now competitive with Brazil’s offers and should help U.S. exports.

  • As the value of soy products has continued to decline over the past month, processors have lost some incentive to crush soybeans and yesterday’s Census Crush numbers for August revealed that only 169 mb of soybeans were crushed compared to trade estimates of 172 mb.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Rumors that Ukraine re-opened the Black Sea export corridor with Russian support had the wheat market under pressure today. As of this writing, it has not been confirmed, but the trade took notice, nonetheless. Also, two additional ships were confirmed heading toward Ukrainian ports, and 12 vessels are said to be waiting to load.

  • While Russian wheat offers are still beating out the U.S., China’s surprise purchase of SRW wheat yesterday signifies that U.S. wheat is becoming more competitive. However, the fact that the U.S. dollar is still at an 11 month high, and still in an uptrend, could continue to weigh on U.S. exports.

  • On the bullish side, heavy rains in parts of Brazil may cause concerns for their wheat crop. Additionally, the dryness in wheat growing areas of Australia and Argentina could reduce their production down the road. In any case, more friendly news may be needed to sustain buying interest.

  • According to Ukraine’s Agriculture ministry, planting of winter grain has reached 2.99 million hectares as of October 3rd. Of that total, 1.7 million ha is winter wheat, which represents a 58% increase when compared to last year.

  • According to SovEcon, as Russian wheat exports increase, on farm stocks have been falling from their record highs. They also estimated that Russian wheat exports will be 2 mmt above the previous year at 48.9 mmt.   

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

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Grain Market Insider: October 3, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • While corn closed lower on the day with a strong dollar and ongoing harvest, demand has seen an uptick in activity and ethanol margins remain strong, adding a level of support to the market.

  • Higher crop ratings and weaker soybean meal and oil weighed on the soybean market, which ultimately closed in the red and 16 cents off its low, after trading on both sides of unchanged.

  • Despite the influence of the strong U.S. dollar, all three wheat classes finished the day on the positive side of unchanged. Adding support to the market was a flash sale totaling 220,000 mt of SRW wheat to China, and a forecast of Ukraine’s 2023 wheat production at 21.7 mmt that came in below the USDA’s current estimate.

  • The U.S. dollar continued its bull run to make another fresh 10-month high and add resistance to commodities, before giving up some of its gains before the grain market’s close. The dollar’s strength came from higher treasury yields, and more hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials stating that interest rates may need to increase once more and stay elevated for an extended period of time.

  • To see the current U.S. 5 day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures saw some back and fill price action, testing support before closing softer on the session as corn futures traded 1-2 cents lower. The price action could be considered positive as the market held onto yesterday’s gains and closed in the top half of the daily trading range.

  • The corn market continues to be supported by a slight uptick in demand news. Mexico has been a more active buyer of U.S. exportable corn, and ethanol margins remain strong. While the overall demand news is still disappointing, slight positive news has helped put a possible fall low in prices going into harvest.

  • U.S. corn harvest is now 23% complete according to the USDA Crop Progress report from Monday afternoon. This is slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 21%. Harvest pressure will continue to limit rallies in the near-term

  • A strong cold front will be moving through the Midwest going into the weekend, bringing rain chances for later in the week, but also the possibility of the first frost of the season. With the corn crop at 87% mature, damage from a frost/freeze event should be minimal.

  • Ethanol margins will likely stay sideways, but supportive in the short term.  The stronger ethanol grind has supported the market. The weekly Ethanol Production and Stocks report will be released on Wednesday morning.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ultimately ended the day lower, but came back significantly from their early morning lows, in which the low from June 28 was tested, but rebounded higher from there. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report likely added some bearish pressure today after good to excellent ratings were increased by 2% to 52%, above trade expectations. Harvest is now reportedly 23% complete, which compares with 12% a week ago, and above the 5-year average of 22%.

  • China was a buyer of both soybeans and wheat today, but for soybeans, they purchased 265,000 metric tons for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year. Soybean exports have been increasing slowly, but are still far below a year ago.

  • Adding more pressure to soybeans are the USDA August soybean crush estimates, which are at 171.6 million bushels, which would be an 11-month low. Crush margins have slipped recently weighing on soy prices, as there has been less of an incentive for processors to crush beans.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued the uptrend from yesterday, though with less enthusiasm. Chicago futures posted small gains out to September, but December contracts onward were neutral to negative at the close. The U.S. Dollar Index did make another new near-term high, which continues to pressure the market.

  • According to the USDA in Monday’s Crop Progress report, 40% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is planted versus 26% last week, with 15% said to be emerged.

  • Adding support to the market, the USDA reported this morning that private exporters reported sales totaling 220,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • According to Interfax, as of September 21, Russia has exported 17.7 mmt of grain, with wheat shipments totaling 13.5 mmt. The total grain export number is said to be 1.6 times that of total exported the same time last year. Reportedly, Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry also increased their grain harvest estimate to 21.7 mmt due to better than expected yield results so far.

  • Over the next several weeks, the wheat market has the potential to see a short covering rally with U.S. wheat becoming more competitive globally, and several countries at risk of lower production due to weather.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Grain Market Insider: October 2, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite tepid exports, the corn market regained its strength today following supportive stocks numbers from Friday’s USDA report and a strong wheat market.

  • Again, caught between sharply higher soybean oil and sharply lower soybean meal, the soybean market settled the day only moderately higher, with export inspections at the upper end of expectations, and stronger wheat and corn markets lending additional support.

  • Soybean oil was sharply higher with strength coming from reports that 22/23 soybean oil usage for biofuel was up 19% from last year, to 10.086 bil. lbs., versus a USDA forecast of a 14% increase.

  • The wheat complex staged a large comeback following Friday’s much higher than expected production estimate from the USDA. The rally, led by the Chicago contracts, was likely technical in nature as traders may have covered short positions with the USDA’s quarterly stocks number only slightly higher than expectations.

  • The U.S. dollar made a fresh 10-month high supported by firming Treasury yields and weak EU economic data. While grain futures shrugged off the negative influence in today’s trade, the strong dollar does create headwinds for US commodities in the world export market.

  • To see the current U.S. 5 day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • The corn market shrugged off Friday’s weakness as it refocused on the friendly numbers in Friday’s USDA report. December corn settled back above the 20-day moving average, with additional strength gained from another flash sale to Mexico and a higher wheat market.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed money was holding a net short position of nearly 170,000 contracts, after selling just under 24,000. This was one of the largest short positions since late 2020.

  • In a flash sale reported this morning by the USDA, Mexico stepped up to the plate again and purchased 210,000 mt (8 mb) of corn for the 23/24 marketing season. While exports remain sluggish overall, Mexico has been a main buyer.

  • Weekly corn export inspections for the week ending Thursday, September 28, came in lower than the previous week at 626,000 mt, mid-range of what was expected by the trade, and still behind the export pace needed to reach the USDA’s target of 2.050 bb for the 23/24 season.

  • Corn had a surprisingly negative reaction to Friday’s report, which showed September 1 stocks at 1.361 billion bushels, which was 78 mb below the September WASDE and 91 mb below last year’s stocks.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 23,791 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 168,606 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after beginning the day lower on the heels of the quarterly Stocks report, which saw prices fall sharply on Friday. Soybean meal ended the day lower, but support came from significantly higher soybean oil.

  • On Friday’s report, stocks were seen at 268 mb versus an expected 242 mb. This number still leaves stocks very tight, but was enough to cause funds to ramp up selling. Stocks are expected to remain tight as analysts begin to call yields closer to 49 bpa compared to the USDA’s guess of 50.1 bpa.

  • A sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans was reported for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year. In addition to this, weekly inspections for soybeans came in at the higher end of expectations at 663,335 mt.

  • The weekly Crop Progress report will be released later this afternoon and it is expected to show harvest between 26% and 28% complete, with both harvest and maturity ahead of the 5-year average. Conditions are expected to be called steady with most of the crop matured.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 15,744 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net long 30,058 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat saw quite a comeback today after the negative close on Friday. The Chicago contract in particular posted double digit gains all the way out to May of 2025. This is also despite a new near-term high in the U.S. dollar, and negative close in Matif futures, which lost three Euros on the front month December contract. 

  • Weekly wheat export inspections for the week ending September 28 came in at 14.6 mb and bring the total 23/24 inspections number to 233 mb. So far, inspections are running behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.

  • While it is not fresh news, fundamental support may be coming from weather issues in other wheat growing regions of the world. Australia in particular is struggling with heat and dryness, with some analysts predicting a 30%-40% decline in their crop production.

  • According to the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, an additional five cargo ships are headed to Ukrainian ports to load with grain for export. Reportedly, about 120,000 mt of grain will be destined for Africa and Europe. In other Black Sea news, as reported by Interfax, Russia will increase their wheat export tax to 4,565 Rubles per ton, the equivalent of about $46.85.

  • There was not much news to cause today’s rally, indicating that it was likely technical in nature. After Friday’s washout, wheat was quite oversold on some contracts and in need of a bounce. The question is, can this rally be sustained? Friday’s data painted a negative picture, that if true, could continue to pressure the market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the September 29 grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 421 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 96,384 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,055 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 16,385 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 26. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 480 contracts between Sept. 20 – 26, bringing their total position to a net short 15,657 contracts. 

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Grain Market Insider: September 29, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a flash sale of corn to Mexico and lower than anticipated September 1 stocks, sharp selloffs in the wheat and soybean complexes weighed on corn prices following today’s USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • September 1 soybean stocks came in above expectations, and above the USDA’s current 22/23 ending stocks number of 250 mb. The bearish report and heavy technical selling in both soybean meal and oil pressed November soybeans to 3-month lows.

  • Instead of an anticipated 5 mb reduction in U.S. wheat production, traders got a 78 mb increase in today’s USDA report. The news pressed the wheat complex between 3 – 6% lower with fresh 2-year lows in Chicago and Minneapolis, and prices not seen since July ’21 for K.C.

  • To see the current U.S. 7 day precipitation forecast, and the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures came under heavy selling pressure as selling in the wheat and soybean market weighed on futures, and the prospects of a proposed government shutdown on Sunday triggered risk off trade across the markets. December corn lost 11 ¾ cents on the day but was down only ½ cent on the week.

  • September 1 corn stocks in the USDA Grain Stocks report were less than expected at 1.361 billion bushels, which was below market expectations and last year’s levels. Though the numbers were friendly to expectations, the corn supply is still large, and a surprise increase in the wheat harvest forecast pressured corn prices.            

  • U.S. corn demand saw a little energy as the USDA announced a flash sale totaling 223,540 mt (8.8 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current crop year.

  • Harvest pressure continues to grow, and the increase in harvest bushels has weighed on basis levels and the cash market. Last week the crop was 15% harvested and should increase this week.

  • Corn futures look soft technically with the weak close on Friday. Additional price follow-through could take place to start next week, and prices may be poised to retest or establish a new low.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 495 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Total grain stocks (blue bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower to end the week, and month, following a bearish quarterly Grain Stocks report. For the week, November soybeans lost 21-1/4 cents, and for the month, they lost 93-3/4 cents. Non-commercial traders have been unloading their net long positions over the past few weeks, with more selling today.

  • In today’s report, old crop soybean stocks as of September 1, totaled 268 mb.  While higher than the 242 mb that trade was looking for, it is still very tight, and 2% below this time last year. Soybean production for 2022 was also revised down by 5.93 mb from the previous estimate.

  • For 2022, planted area was unchanged at 87.5 million acres but harvested area was revised to 86.2 million acres. The yield for 2022 was also revised to 49.6 bpa, up 0.1 bushel from the previous estimate. Overall, the report had a negative reaction with an increase in ending stocks but a decrease in production.

  • The U.S. soybean harvest should pick up speed in the coming days with little rain expected over the next week. Drought conditions are still prevalent in the Midwest, and heavy rains would be needed to improve soil moisture levels.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have been in a downtrend and are showing signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices do reverse higher. Above the market, initial resistance lies between 1317 – 1323, with further resistance near 1368. To the downside, support remains near the May 31 low of 1270.

Total grain stocks (black bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three U.S. wheats had double digit losses across the board after a negative reaction to today’s reports. September 1 wheat stocks came in at 1.780 bb versus 1.774 bb expected and 1.778 last year. Additionally, U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1.812 bb versus an expected 1.731 bb, and last year’s 1.650 bb.

  • Despite negative data today, there is still a silver lining for wheat bulls with weather problems that may affect global production. There is talk of Australia’s crop being lowered to 23-25 mmt, and also lower EU crops. In addition, Argentina’s wheat crop ratings are up from last year’s 14% good to excellent, but still a dismal 22% GTE.

  • The drop in prices today might make U.S. wheat more competitive on the world market, but Russian exports are still a concern. After Egypt purchased wheat from Romania and Bulgaria, it was said that Russia is now offering wheat for export around $245-$250 per mt.

  • The potential for a government shutdown may also be weighing on commodities as money flows out of the market. In addition to wheat, many commodities including corn, the soybean complex, and livestock, all posted losses. And as of writing crude oil is also down nearly a dollar per barrel.

  • According to the USDA, as of September 26, approximately 47% of the winter wheat production area is still in drought, while 51% of the spring wheat production area is in drought.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 470.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec. Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside, and Sept. 29 push lower has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Total grain stocks (black bars) as of Sept. 1 are the right most columns for each year represented.

Other Charts / Weather