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11-24 End of Day: “Risk off” trade on low holiday volume pressed the grain markets lower.

ByGrain Market Insider

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After briefly trading higher March corn reversed and trended lower throughout the session in sympathy with lower soybeans to close just ¾ of a cent off the day’s low.

  • Despite concerning hot and dry Brazilian weather, and a round of large private sales totaling 452k mt to be delivered this marketing year, the soybean market was dragged lower on profit taking with thin holiday trade, lower soybean meal and sharply lower soybean oil.

  • Weak export sales, lower Matif wheat, and carryover weakness from soybeans weighed on the wheat complex that saw lower closing prices in all three classes.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the Brazil and Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling pressure across the commodity market triggered risk off trade, pressuring grain futures. December corn futures lost 5 cents on the session, and 3 ¼ cents for the week.

  • Weekly corn export sales were towards the higher end of expectation at 1.432 MMT. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. For the year, corn export sales are up 27% year over year.

  • Over the weekend, the South American weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil will remain a focus. Improvement in some rainfall forecasts have helped pressure soybeans the past couple sessions, but the overall pattern is looking to stay dry. The weather in December going into January will be very key for both soybean and corn markets.

  • December grain options expired during the session, which likely added to the volatility on the session. Prices can move to areas of large open interest, which can trigger price movement.

  • The weak price action to end the week, and the lack of fresh news will likely limit the corn market going into the start of next week.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December contract to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower on a day of thin holiday trade volume despite good export sales, a bundle of flash sales this morning, and Brazilian weather that remains hot, dry, and concerning for local producers.

  • For the week ending November 16, the USDA reported an increase of 35.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was a good number, but still down 75% from the previous week and 47% from the prior 4-week average. Exports shipments of 61.0 mb were well above the 29.6 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s estimates but were down 14% from the previous week. Primary destinations were to China, Spain, and Indonesia.

  • On top of the relatively strong export sales, two new flash sales were reported today with 129,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year and 323,400 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 year.

  • In South America, Argentina has been faring better than Brazil as far as precipitation amounts, and although Brazil has received scattered showers, it has seen anywhere near the soaking rains that have been needed. According to Agroconsult, the Brazilian soybean production for 23/24 has been revised lower to 161.38 mmt from 163.25 mmt.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat futures closed with losses in all three classes alongside a lower close in Paris milling wheat futures. Weakness may have in part stemmed from sharply lower soybeans pulling the grain complex down.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments of 11.0 mb last week were below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA 23/24 export goal of 700 mb.

  • News outlets have reported that Russia is setting a grain export quota in the amount of 24 mmt that will run from February 15 to the end of June. This will include wheat, corn, barley, and rye. Interestingly, Russia has also issued a durum wheat export ban from December 1 to May 31.

  • China’s wheat imports this year are up 38% compared to last year, at a record 10.8 mmt. With the price of US wheat falling, it will be interesting to see if China makes any more purchases from the US. Additionally, Chinese food group COFCO is said to have purchased Canadian durum wheat for the first time to be processed into flour.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina has harvested 27% of their wheat crop. While weather in that country has recently improved, it was probably too little too late for wheat. The BAGE is expecting a 14.7 mmt harvest.

  • In India, wheat sowing is being hindered by dry soil conditions. Therefore, and despite near record high internal prices, India may shift wheat to planting other crops including chickpeas and sorghum. As of November 17, Indian farmers have planted 8.6 million hectares of wheat, down 5.5% from last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After testing resistance at the upper end of the recent range near 660, the market has retreated and broken through 625 support.  Without fresh bullish input, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop. Since late July, Sept ’24 Mpls wheat has been slowly stair-stepping lower, providing no rallies of substance to sell into. While we see improving conditions in the market that could provide fuel for a bottom and future upside sales opportunities, we also know historically, that if the market breaks support this time of year, it poses the risk that prices could continue to trend overall lower into spring of next year. All that said, a close below 743 support would signal that a trend lower into next year is a risk. Although Grain Market Insider still looks for higher prices, we know from our historical research the importance of having a “plan b” this time of year. With a daily close below 743, Grain Market Insider will recommend selling a portion of your 2024 crop while prices are still relatively elevated and historically good in case they erode further. While the mid-700s may not be the 1000 or higher that we’ve seen in the last two years, it remains much better than the possible 500 – 600 that the market saw back in 2020 and early 2021. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15, nearby Minneapolis wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721 with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-22 End of Day: Markets Mostly Lower on Changing SA Forecasts and Thanksgiving Position Squaring

ByGrain Market Insider

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After trading higher to start the day, the corn market shed its earlier gains in a tight 6-cent range and closed lower on the day as prices continued to consolidate with traders squaring positions in preparation for closed markets on Thursday and a thinly traded, shortened session on Friday.

  • Profit taking ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on a more variable South American forecast led the soybean complex lower as traders covered long positions from the recent rally.

  • Soybean meal and oil both closed lower alongside soybeans as traders with long meal positions likely booked profits in front of the holiday. While soybean oil, with its relatively neutral fund position, followed crude oil lower.

  • Early strength from fresh Russian attacks on Odesa port facilities, and a large private sale totaling 110k mt of wheat to China for 23/24, faded as selling pressure from neighboring soybeans weighed on the wheat complex. Minneapolis contracts led the charge lower with KC following suit, while Chicago contracts remained firm.

  • The markets will be closed this evening and Thursday for Thanksgiving. They will reopen at 8:30 am Friday morning, with an early close at 12:05 pm for the CME Group and 12:15 pm for the MGEX.

  • To see the updated US and South America GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicators courtesy of NASA and the NDMC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Weakness in the soybean market and technical selling pressured corn futures lower on the session. December corn lost 1 ¼ cents for the day. After early session strength, corn prices failed at overhead resistance, which triggered some selling pressure before the Thanksgiving Day break.

  • Corn futures still lack overall news to push one direction or another. December futures have been holding and trading around the 470 level for the month of November.

  • December grain options expire on Friday, which could lead to volatile trade going into the weekend. Prices can move to areas of large open interest, and for December corn the 470 call and put strike seems to be holding the largest number of open contracts.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 128,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations for the current marketing year. The announced daily sales are encouraging, but remain small in size, and failed to move the market. Weekly export sales will be released on Friday with the Thanksgiving Day holiday tomorrow.

  • Over the weekend, the South American weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil will remain a focus. Improvement in some rainfall forecasts have helped pressure soybeans the past couple days, but the overall pattern is looking to stay dry. The weather in December going into January will be very key for both soybean and corn markets.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December contract to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high.  Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The wheat market had a mixed close with small gains in Chicago, but losses in KC and Minneapolis futures. Early strength stemmed from a new Russian attack on Odesa in Ukraine as well as a USDA announcement that 110,000 mt of wheat was sold to China for the 23/24 marketing year. However, strength faded in tandem with soybean futures pulling the grain complex lower.

  • Funds still hold a large net short wheat position. Short covering may become more of a factor if there is more friendly news to drive wheat higher. 

  • From July 1 to November 19, EU soft wheat exports have declined 19% year over year to 11.6 mmt. This compares with 14.3 mmt last year. Additionally, there are concerns about weather in parts of Europe with too much rain causing issues, especially in France.

  • A UN agency has stated that Ukraine may be unable to meet wheat demand, both domestic and export, if Russian infrastructure attacks continue. According to the UN human rights office, since mid-July there have been 31 attacks on Ukrainian grain production and export facilities. To add to the problem, eastern European farmers are said to be protesting the import of grain from Ukraine. Nearly 300 trucks are blocking cargo traffic at one border crossing.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market had a mixed close with small gains in Chicago, but losses in KC and Minneapolis futures. Early strength stemmed from a new Russian attack on Odesa in Ukraine as well as a USDA announcement that 110,000 mt of wheat was sold to China for the 23/24 marketing year. However, strength faded in tandem with soybean futures pulling the grain complex lower.

  • Funds still hold a large net short wheat position. Short covering may become more of a factor if there is more friendly news to drive wheat higher. 

  • From July 1 to November 19, EU soft wheat exports have declined 19% year over year to 11.6 mmt. This compares with 14.3 mmt last year. Additionally, there are concerns about weather in parts of Europe with too much rain causing issues, especially in France.

  • A UN agency has stated that Ukraine may be unable to meet wheat demand, both domestic and export, if Russian infrastructure attacks continue. According to the UN human rights office, since mid-July there have been 31 attacks on Ukrainian grain production and export facilities. To add to the problem, eastern European farmers are said to be protesting the import of grain from Ukraine. Nearly 300 trucks are blocking cargo traffic at one border crossing.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After testing resistance at the upper end of the recent range near 660, the market has retreated and broken through 625 support.  Without fresh bullish input, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost.  In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15, nearby Minneapolis wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721 with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

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11-21 End of Day: SA Weather Supports Beans & Corn; Short Covering Supports Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • For the second day in a row, corn settled higher on the day, as Brazilian weather concerns and support from soybeans continued to ripple through to the corn market.

  • The soybean market closed higher on the day following two-sided trade that briefly dipped below unchanged at midday before bouncing back with support from continued weather concerns in Brazil, slow farmer selling in Argentina, and strength in the soybean oil market.

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged, the wheat complex found support in all three classes near Monday’s lows and ended the day higher.

  • To see the updated Brazil 1-week total accumulated precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to Other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn ended the day slightly higher for the second consecutively higher close with support from higher soybeans and expectations for dry Brazilian weather. Corn futures remain rangebound, and trade has been relatively quiet ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

  • Corn futures have been essentially gridlocked over the past few months as the expectation of large US production in the ballpark of 15.23 billion bushels weighs on prices, but the good domestic and export demand levels have simultaneously kept prices supported.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released the Crop Progress report which showed the corn harvest at 93% complete which was below the 5-year average by a few points and below the average trade guess. Michigan and Pennsylvania are behind schedule due to late rains with 30% of the crop left to harvest.

  • While no export sales were reported today, a sale of 4.1 mb was reported yesterday to Mexico for the 23/24 year, and yesterday’s export inspections brought total inspections 24% above the previous year. Corn export sales overall are now 33% higher than a year ago.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December contract to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high.  Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a day of up and down trade that took prices from as much as 21 cents higher, down to only a penny higher, only to rally again into the close. Drier forecasts for Brazilian weather has been supportive. Soybean meal ended the day lower in the front months, while soybean oil was higher.

  • Last Friday, forecasts were calling for significant rains throughout the driest areas of Brazil, but updated forecasts are now only calling for some scattered showers, not the soaking rains that had been expected. In addition, temperatures are expected to remain very hot which would further stress the soy crop.

  • In the US, domestic demand has been strong for soybean crush, and the USDA is estimating that the processing value of soybeans in Illinois is $17.77 a bushel which is high enough to keep processors incentivized to buy soybeans.

  • Brazilian soybean planting for 23/24 is now estimated at 68% complete as of November 16 and has advanced just 7 points from the previous week, way below the pace of 80% from last year. These planting delays are causing some producers to plant cotton instead, and the delays will impact corn planting as well.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes ended the day higher after finding support down near Monday’s lows. Additional support came early in the day from stronger soybeans and corn, which later gave up much of their gains.

  • The USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report Monday afternoon, which showed that 95% of the winter wheat crop has been planted versus 98% last year. Emergence came in at 87% versus last year’s 86% and 85% on average. 48% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up one point from last week and 16% ahead of last year.

  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said that the country’s winter wheat crop is 92% planted, and AK-Inform, a crop analyst, raised their forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports to 13 mmt, which is just above the USDA’s estimate of 12 mmt.

  • US wheat export demand and prices have been greatly affected by low export prices out of Russia and the Black Sea.  Russia continues to be cheapest among world exporters, and the pressure has affected Matif futures as well which are near a five month low.  

  • While many US winter wheat areas have seen some moisture, HRW areas remain dry and could use more to recover from the deficit. This continued lack of moisture and low prices may be leading to some short covering of the fund’s large short positions, supporting in prices.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends covering half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees, and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After testing resistance at the upper end of the recent range near 660, the market has retreated and broken through 625 support.  Without fresh bullish input, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Above: Winter wheat percentage emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (brown).

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends covering half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost.  In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15, nearby Minneapolis wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721 with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-20 End of Day: Soybeans Rally Hard Supporting Corn as Wheat Breaks

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Solid export inspections, a 104k mt sale to Mexico, and the prospect of Brazilian replanting brought support to the corn market that traded on both sides of unchanged before settling higher on the day.

  • Soybeans saw action on the bottom side of unchanged before reversing and settling sharply higher in a classic bullish reversal. Meanwhile, soybean meal also followed suit in posting a bullish reversal, and bean oil rallied 118 points with support from higher crude oil.

  • A sharp reversal in soybeans, strength in corn, and a weak US dollar were no match for slow overall US demand and cheap Russian prices, which led all three classes lower on the day.

  • Argentina elected libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei who is set to take office December 10th.  His policies are generally viewed as supportive to Ag, and may be bearish long term due to added global supplies, but it’s unlikely that farmers will sell much before he takes office which could be supportive near term.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the Brazil and Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the day higher after a day of choppy trade that saw prices on either side of unchanged. A flash sale to Mexico, good export inspections, and the prospect of delayed Brazilian corn plantings were all supportive today.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 104,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year. Export sales are currently running 33% above a year ago, with Mexico being the primary buyer.

  • US weekly export inspections were released this morning and showed total corn inspections for 23/24 at 268 mb which is up 24% from the previous year. US corn is currently the cheapest feed grain available in the world right now, and this is allowing the USDA to estimate the 23/24 season’s corn exports 22% higher than last year’s.

  • Brazilian soybean planting is quite behind for this time of year due to the extremely hot temperatures and dryness, and although they are slated to receive rain over the next week, some of the crop will be replanted which would delay their planting of safrinha corn. There have been reports that seed sales in Brazil are below expectations for corn.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December contract to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 5,102 contracts between November 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 163,486 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high.  Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans moved sharply higher today along with both soybean meal and oil. The election of Javier Milei as president in Argentina is having a temporarily bullish effect on prices as farmers may likely hold off on sales until Milei is sworn in on December 10. Technically, soybeans achieved a bullish key reversal today.

  • With Argentina facing inflation above 140%, Milei has said he would move the country’s currency to the US dollar, as well as make sharp cuts in export taxes for agricultural goods. While this may be bearish in the long term, many farmers will presumably wait to sell cash grains until these tax cuts are in place.

  • China has been a main buyer of US soybeans lately, but they have been buying from Brazil in bulk as well. October soy imports from Brazil to China were reported to be up 71% from last year to a whopping 4.8 mmt, while US soy exports to China for October were just over 228,000 mt.

  • While non-commercials continue to hold net short positions in both corn and wheat, they have been growing their long soybean position. As of November 14, funds increased their net long position by 19,315 contracts to 87,913 contracts, they also hold a large net long position of 131,000 contracts in soybean meal.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 19,315 contracts between November 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net long 87,913 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex started the holiday week continuing last week’s slide lower with all three classes closing lower on the day and KC printing its lowest price since July ’21.

  • The USDA released its weekly export inspections report today with a total of 13 mb of wheat inspected for export. The total was not only in line with trade expectations, it also met the average weekly total needed to reach the USDA’s current export goal.  

  • Low export prices out of Russia are nothing new and continue to weigh on the US export pace and prices. IKAR reported that Russian export prices remained steady at $230/mt FOB last week, while SovEcon reported that last week’s Russian grain exports dropped 9% from the previous week and totaled 810k mt.

  • Though there is nothing confirmed, there has been talk of another attempt at a sanctioned grain export corridor for Ukraine that could increase their exports and lower insurance costs. So far, the Ukrainian Danube River corridor is working, with the river ports handling 27.6 mmt in the first 10 months of the year.

  • Wet weather in southern Brazil is not just affecting corn and soybeans. Conab lowered its estimate for Brazil’s wheat crop to 9.63 mmt, down 7.9% from October’s estimate and 8.7% less than last year’s 10.55 mmt record crop.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market may be found between 564 and 554.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,991 contracts between November 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 89,271 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium, plus commission and fees, to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since then, July ’24 KC wheat has broken through the Sep ’21 low and nearly 100 cents, with the July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts gaining nearly 200% in value. Though US export demand remains weak, plenty of time remains to market the ’24 crop, and the Drought Monitor still shows dry conditions in the HRW and HRS growing areas. Following the recent market drop, any increase in demand or threat of yield loss could rally prices. Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’24 660 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back, and holding the remaining puts, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After testing resistance at the upper end of the recent range near 660, the market has retreated and broken through 625 support.  Without fresh bullish input, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,370 contracts between November 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 37,449 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘24 660 KC wheat puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium, plus commission and fees, to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since then, July ’24 KC wheat has broken through the Sep ’21 low and nearly 100 cents, with the July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts gaining nearly 200% in value. Though US export demand remains weak, plenty of time remains to market the ’24 crop, and the Drought Monitor still shows dry conditions in the HRW and HRS growing areas. Following the recent market drop, any increase in demand or threat of yield loss could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’24 660 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back, and holding the remaining puts, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721, with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 14. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,272 contracts between November 8 – 14, bringing their total position to a net short 27,726 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-17 Markets Close the Week Softer in Anticipation of SA Rain

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After giving up yesterday’s gains, the corn market settled lower on the day alongside soybeans and wheat, as the markets extract weather premium on the prospect of beneficial rainfall in Brazil.

  • For the third day in a row, soybeans settled in the red as beneficial weather in Argentina may increase soybean plantings, and Brazil continues to see forecasts for much needed rainfall for its soybean crop.

  • Soybean meal and oil once again settled in opposite directions, with lower meal outweighing the gains in bean oil in influence on soybeans. 

  • Despite cuts to Argentina’s wheat crop, the wheat complex continued its slide southward, as weakness from neighboring corn and beans weighed on prices.

  • To see the updated US Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the Brazil 1 week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures gave back yesterday’s gains and then some, as sellers stepped back into the corn market, fueled by a wetter near-term forecast in Brazil and improving weather in Argentina. December corn lost 7 ¾ cents on the session, but managed improving 3 cents on the week over last week overall.

  • Improved chances of rainfall in Brazil weighed on soybean prices, and with wheat futures seeing additional selling pressure, the negative tone weighed on corn futures as well.

  • The corn market has been supported by an improving demand tone. Ethanol grind has been ahead of expectations, and export sales have been more active. Weekly export sales last week were above expectations, and currently total export sales are 40% of the USDA export target. The 5-year average is 39%, so sales are back on track so far.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its forecast for corn planting estimates and raised their soybean planting totals. The exchange lowered its planting estimate to 7.1 million hectares, down .2 million from their last estimate. The return of rainfall in Argentina is allowing for land to be planted into soybeans, shifting away from corn and wheat.

  • The corn market still struggles to find its footing as late harvest is triggering corn bushel movement and the hedge pressure limits potential for a strong near-term rally.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and tested the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for a third consecutive day and have lost 55 cents since the recent high was posted on Wednesday. The recent rally in soybeans was caused by dry South American weather, and this recent sell off has been caused by wetter South American forecasts.

  • Argentina has been receiving more favorable weather lately and is in a good place to be planting soybeans, and it is being reported that planted acreage for beans will increase by 500k acres. In Brazil, rain chances are improved, but still limited until Thanksgiving, and afterwards, it is expected to dry out again.

  • With the prospect of a larger Argentinian soy crop next year, soybean meal has begun slipping from its recent highs. A large portion of their rally has been due to increased export demand, and that will likely change next year. Soybean oil has trended slightly higher, but is under pressure from crude oil.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report featured a very large increase of 144.0 mb of soybeans for 23/24, which was a marketing year high and was in large part due to the big and consistent purchases from China over the past two weeks. In addition, a new sale to China was reported yesterday of 8.1 mb.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat continued its slide with all three classes lower on the day. As the complex followed corn and soybeans lower, KC made a fresh contract low, while Chicago held more of its value versus both Minneapolis and KC.

  • Even though the crop benefited from October’s rainfall, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its estimate for Argentina’s wheat crop to 14.7 mmt, down from 15.4 mmt, primarily due to frost damage.

  • With EU soft-wheat production seen at 125.8 mmt, a slight increase from last month’s estimate, EU crop analyst Strategie Grains reported that France may see a surplus in wheat and barley for 23/24 crop year.

  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture in a regular tender bought 104,677 metric tons of food grade milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.

  • On the weather front, dry conditions continue to be a concern for much of the recently planted HRW wheat crop, which makes Sunday and Monday’s anticipated rain more significant. So far, 42.5% of the Kansas crop is estimated to be under severe drought according to Thursday’s release of the US Drought Monitor.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market may be found between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium, plus commission and fees, to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since then, July ’24 KC wheat has broken through the September ’21 low and nearly 100 cents, with the July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts gaining nearly 200% in value. Though US export demand remains weak, plenty of time remains to market the ’24 crop, and the Drought Monitor still shows dry conditions in the HRW and HRS growing areas. Following the recent market drop, any increase in demand or threat of yield loss could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’24 660 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back, and holding the remaining puts, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium, plus commission and fees, to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since then, July ’24 KC wheat has broken through the September ’21 low and nearly 100 cents, with the July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts gaining nearly 200% in value.  Though US export demand remains weak, plenty of time remains to market the ’24 crop, and the Drought Monitor still shows dry conditions in the HRW and HRS growing areas. Following the recent market drop, any increase in demand or threat of yield loss could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’24 660 KC wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back, and holding the remaining puts, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721, with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-16 Corn Higher, Beans and Wheat lower in a “Risk Off” Day for Commodities

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures managed to hang onto gains today as the rest of the grain complex fell lower. Strong weekly export sales helped provide underlying support.  

  • New forecasts for South America showing much needed precipitation in western and central Brazil this weekend and into the end of the month sparked liquidation in soybeans today.

  • Soybean meal and soybean oil followed the commodity trend lower today. WTI crude oil shed over 4% as well, which added to the momentum lower for soybean oil.

  • Poor weekly export sales and pressure from outside markets pushed all three wheats lower today.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and the Brazil 2 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw positive money flow on Thursday, supported by a better-than-expected Export Sales report for last week. Dec corn futures finished 4 cents higher, but 9 1/2 cents off the session low, despite strong selling pressure in the grain and crude oil markets.

  • USDA reported weekly exports sales of 1.808 MMT (71.2 mb) for the current marketing year last week.  This was larger than market expectations and brings total sales for the 2023-24 marketing year to 21,098 MMT, up 33% versus last year. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week at 41.8 mb.

  • Crude oil prices traded over 4% lower during the session on Thursday. The drop in crude oil prices could be a limiting factor and margins for ethanol production could tighten, slowing this key domestic demand.

  • Some improving forecast for Brazil helped weigh on soybean prices for the session. Corn futures traded independently from both soybeans and wheat on the day. While Brazil forecast is staying dry overall, a weather wildcard will be Argentina. After two years of drought, conditions are improved, which could lead to price limiting production from the South American country.

  • Despite the positive price action on Thursday, Dec corn futures are looking to test key resistance at the $4.80 price level. This price point has been a cap overtop the corn market since the start of November.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a new forecast for South America, which features better chances of rain for Argentina and northern and central Brazil that is expected to begin on Sunday and last until at least the end of the month. Export sales were strong, but were overshadowed by the weather.

  • Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well, with a sharp selloff in crude oil which saw prices break support and drop below 73 dollars a barrel. Soybean meal may encounter pressure down the road as Argentina’s soy crop is being planted in better conditions than the previous year, which could allow them to export more soybean meal next year.

  • For the week ending November 9, the USDA reported an increase of 144.0 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, a marketing year high. Last week’s export shipments of 73.2 mb were above the 30.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Bangladesh.

  • Following a string of sales recently to both China and unknown, another flash sale was reported this morning of 220,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24. Since last week, China and unknown destinations have purchased well over 100 mb of soybeans. President Biden and Chinese President Xi met and reportedly had a “productive meeting”.

Above: January soybeans closed sharply higher following a gap higher open on Nov. 13. The development is bullish, though resistance remains between 1385 and 1410, and the market may seek to fill the gap left from 1349 ¾. If the market can close above 1410, it would be poised to make a run toward 1490 – 1505. If not, initial support below the market rests between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1317.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The markets took a risk off posture today, with many commodities trading lower. All three US wheat futures classes posted losses with KC leading the way down. Paris milling wheat futures offered no support either, with losses of around two Euros per metric ton.

  • The USDA reported a dismal increase of 6.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Each week, 14.8 mb needs to be exported to reach their goal of 700 mb for 23/24, but last week’s shipments totaled only 11.4 mb.

  • Adding to pressure in the wheat market is the Australian harvest, with yields so far better than anticipated. However, according to the Australian government, their wheat production will still be over a third lower than last year’s record harvest due to the hot and dry weather this season.

  • Ukraine has reportedly began repairing railroads, presumably damaged in the war. This repair work will allow for cargo to be transported to three Black Sea ports near Odesa. These shipments would then be shipped on Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor that was created after Russia left the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

  • France is seeing heavy rains and flooding, which may impact the 2024 soft wheat crop, according to FranceAgriMer. France has seen the highest total rainfall ever (for 26 consecutive days) from October 18 to November 12. President Macron is said to be visiting some of the affected areas.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market may be found between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in July, the July ’24 contract tested the 870 range, while Dec ‘23 was testing the 930 level. Since then, fund positioning and weak demand fundamentals have driven both the nearby old crop contracts and July ’24 prices lower, with nearby old crop prices now in the low to mid 600s, while July ’24 retains about a 15 cent premium. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for the nearby old crop contracts, in that the market needs fresh bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721, with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

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11-15 Corn and Beans Lower, and Wheat Follows as Traders Take Profits

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Profit taking, triggered by the prospect of much needed rain in Brazil over the weekend, led to a bearish reversal and a lower close in the corn market after it posted a new high for the recent move up.

  • Despite impressive record NOPA crush numbers for October, nearby soybeans sold off and settled lower with a bearish reversal, while the deferred months remained firm, on talk of rain in Brazil’s two week forecast.

  • Soybean meal posted a bearish key reversal and closed lower after making a new high today. The selloff may have triggered some profit taking and certainly weighed on nearby soybeans. Even though bean oil settled off its high of the day, it still posted a solid close following the rally in palm oil.

  • The lack of fresh bullish news and a general risk off attitude in other markets carried over to the wheat market, contributing to its weakness. Although nearby KC and Minneapolis settled unchanged to slightly firmer, the wheat complex was mostly lower to close the day, after trading on both sides of unchanged.

  • To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast, Brazil’s 2-week precipitation forecast, and the South American GRACE-Based Drought Indicators, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, CPC, NASA and the NDM, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures failed to push through resistance early in the session and reversed over during the day.  Dec corn lost 7 1/2 cents on the session. The weak price action saw the daily chart post a bearish reversal, which could lead to additional technical selling on Thursday.

  • Brazil’s weather forecast is looking for some possible rain chances this weekend into early next week. The prospect of rain triggered profit taking in the grain markets. Longer term models are keeping the current dry and hot forecast in place, but the Brazil crops could see some temporary relief.

  • Argentia weather is improving, which should support corn and soybean production this season. After two year of drought, Argentina crop coming back to full production would greatly limit the impact of a possible loss in Brazil bushels.

  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for sales to range between 900,000 – 1.55 MMT of new sales last week. The USDA announced a flash 124,000 MT (4.8 mb) for corn to Japan this morning for the current marketing year.

  • Daily ethanol production for the week averaged 1.047 million barrels. This was up 0.5% from last week and up 3.6% from last year. Ethanol stocks were 20.954 million barrels. This was the lowest since December 24, 2021. Last week, corn used for ethanol was estimated at 103.92 million bushels, and the overall trend for corn usage stays friendly compared to USDA forecasts.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were bear spread today, with the front months ending the day lower, with November 2024 ending slightly higher. January took out yesterday’s high this morning and reached 13.98-1/2, but has struggled to get above the 14-dollar mark.

  • NOPA soybean crush numbers were very impressive today, with October 2023 crush at 187.775 mb, which was an all-time high for any month and way above the average trade guess of 187.237 mb. Soybean oil stocks came in below expectations at 1.099 billion bushels and this was the sixth straight monthly fall, signaling the still strong demand.

  • This afternoon, President Biden and Chinese President Xi will meet in San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, and leading up to the meeting, China has been an active buyer of US soybeans. Since last week, China and unknown destinations have purchased over 100 mb of soybeans from the US.

  • Weather in central and northern Brazil remains very hot and dry, with talk of an increased chance for rain over the next 7-days, but southern Brazil continues to receive too much rain. Trade has been watching South American weather closely, but Argentinian weather has improved recently, which would add a large amount of soybean meal back to the market if their soy production returns to its typical production of 45 mmt, rather than the meager 25 mmt in last year’s drought.

Above: January soybeans closed sharply higher following a gap higher open on Nov. 13. The development is bullish, though resistance remains between 1385 and 1410, and the market may seek to fill the gap left from 1349 ¾. If the market can close above 1410, it would be poised to make a run toward 1490 – 1505. If not, initial support below the market rests between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1317.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • A risk off session led to a lower close for the wheat market. Lower corn, soybeans, crude oil, and Matif wheat futures, in addition to a higher US dollar, all offered weakness to US wheat futures. A lack of fresh bullish news may have also played a part in today’s softness.

  • According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, their wheat exports are down 32% from last year. Although this statement may sound like a broken record, it bears repeating:  Russia continues to dominate the wheat export market, and that is keeping a lid on futures prices, as US exports have fallen to the lowest level in 52 years.

  • The US Plains may see some shower activity over the next five days or so. While rain totals are not expected to be heavy, it is still expected to bring relief to some of the drier areas.

  • Kazakhstan’s wheat production estimate has been reduced by 5.6% to 13.0 mmt due to heavy rain and delays to harvest.

  • The drought in Brazil is causing more shipping delays than expected, with low Amazon River levels, and grain exports are being re-routed South. While this is mainly impacting corn and soybeans at this point, it could have repercussions for the grain markets as a whole.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market may be found between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in July, the July ’24 contract tested the 870 range, while Dec ‘23 was testing the 930 level. Since then, fund positioning and weak demand fundamentals have driven both the nearby old crop contracts and July ’24 prices lower, with nearby old crop prices now in the low to mid 600s, while July ’24 retains about a 15 cent premium. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for the nearby old crop contracts, in that the market needs fresh bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721, with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7 day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-14 Chicago and KC Wheat Post Losses Despite Gains Across the Grain Complex

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Another 102k bu of private sale to Mexico reported by the USDA, and short covering triggered by strength in soybeans helped the corn market to extend the gains from yesterday’s rally and settle higher on the day, following choppy back and forth trade.

  • After drifting lower overnight on profit taking, the soybean market regained upward momentum and support from strong soybean oil prices, rebounding meal, and the weak US dollar, to close the day just 1 ¾ cents off the high in a 23 cent range.

  • Soybean meal came back from a lower open to close higher alongside soybean oil, which also followed through on yesterday’s gains with support from higher palm and crude oil. The move also pushed January Board crush margins higher, showing a 10 ¾ cent improvement.

  • The sharp drop in the US dollar was no match for the sellers in the wheat market, as the complex settled the day mixed with Minneapolis the strong leg of the three, while Chicago and KC closed lower on the day, following two sided trade.

  • A better than expected report on the Consumer Price Index triggered massive selling in the US dollar, which traded to fresh 2-month lows on the possibility that the Federal Reserve may refrain from further rate hikes. The lower dollar likely lent support across the commodity sector.

  • To see the US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Brazil and Argentina average temperatures and 1-week precipitation forecasts, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and the CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Another strong close in the soybean market and short covering in the corn market helped push prices higher for the second consecutive day. December corn added 1 cent to $4.78 ¼. 

  • Price action could be deemed disappointing after the strong start to the week on Monday. The true lack of follow-through on Tuesday is reflective of the bearish overall tone in the corn market.  Resistance over the December contract is $4.80, which was tested and held during Monday’s trade.

  • Corn harvest is moving into the later stages as the USDA pegged harvest at 88% complete, which was 2% below the analyst expectations, but 2 % faster than the 5-year average. The eastern Corn Belt and Wisconsin looked to be the biggest areas of delay.

  • Weather forecasts stay extremely hot and dry for Brazil grain producing areas into the end of the week, but some potential rains over the weekend into next week. The accuracy of longer-range models is questionable. These forecasted rains will be key and extended models bring warm and dry conditions back through the end of November.

  • Demand will stay in the focus of the market as export sales and shipments are below expectations.  The USDA announced a flash sale of 101,745 mt (4 MB) of corn to Mexico for the current marketing year this morning. These sales are routine, and still are not the totals needed to ease the demand concerns for U.S. corn on the global export market.

Above: Front month corn posted a bullish key reversal after printing a new low for the move on Nov. 13. The market continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive to the reversal. If prices can push through overhead resistance near 484, prices could move higher to test 500 – 509 ½. If not, support below the market remains 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans started off nearly 11 cents lower, but ultimately, finished the day higher thanks to strength in both soy products, strong Chinese demand, and hot and dry South American weather.

  • Yesterday, soybean meal made new contract highs and was briefly limit up. A new high was made today in December, but the biggest gains were in soybean oil after Malaysian palm oil futures surged by 2.7%. India also increased its imports of palm and sunflower oil by 24% and 54% respectively from the previous year.

  • As the meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi approaches, there has been a sharp increase in the amount of soybeans purchased by China. In the past week, 106 mb of soybeans have been sold to China and unknown destinations with another sale of 7.5 mb reported yesterday.

  • Brazil is reportedly 61% complete with soybean planting, but have endured very dry and hot weather with little relief in the forecast. It is estimated that at least 20% of the crop will be replanted and could be a large factor in non-commercials establishing a net long position recently of over 70,000 contracts.

Above: January soybeans closed sharply higher following a gap higher open on Nov. 13. The development is bullish, though resistance remains overhead between 1385 and 1410, and the market may seek to fill the gap left from 1349 ¾. If the market can close above 1410, it would be poised to make a run toward 1490 – 1505. If not, initial support below the market rests between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1317.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two sided trade, Chicago and KC wheat closed in the red, while Minneapolis held gains. This is despite the sharply lower US Dollar Index, which at the time of writing is down 1.46 at 104.17. This huge move down is a result of today’s Consumer Price Index data that was unchanged for October, with expectations for a 0.1% increase. Additionally, the year on year increase of 3.2% was 0.1% lower than what was anticipated. This data suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause another interest rate increase.

  • According to the USDA, the US winter wheat crop is now 93% planted, which is in line with the average, but down just slightly from last year. Also, 81% of the crop is emerged, but conditions were lowered 3% from last week to 47% good to excellent.

  • The weather conditions in southern Brazil have been far too wet and it is affecting their wheat crop in terms of quality and production. According to CONAB, Brazil’s wheat crop projection comes in at 9.63 mmt – this is a 7.9% decrease from the October estimate. It is also down from the last crop of 10.55 mmt.

  • Although France raised their corn crop estimate to 12.5 mmt (from 12.1 mmt), they kept their soft wheat crop production unchanged at 35.1 mmt. Europe has been too wet overall, but this does not seem to have affected wheat all that much. 

  • The CFTC report was released yesterday, delayed from Friday due to the Veteran’s Day holiday. The data showed that as of November 7th, funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat by 9,313 contracts to 92,262. Though nearly a 10% reduction, it remains a hefty, short position that keeps the market primed for a short covering rally if there is friendly news to support it.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After trading toward the October highs on November 8, the wheat market has been consolidating. If it can press through nearby upside resistance and close above 604 ½, it may then be able to run and test resistance near 618. If the market turns back lower, support below the market may be found between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. The July ’24 contract is currently trading near a 25-cent premium to July ’23, which is up significantly from last July’s 60-cent discount. Weak fundamentals have driven spread activity to push July ’23 toward its contract lows, while July ’24 has been able to maintain more of its value. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, the Dec ‘23 contract has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 7 the December contract posted a bearish reversal, which may indicate lower prices ahead unless bullish information enters the market to turn prices higher. Currently, upside resistance now lies between 735 and 755, with initial support below the market near 703. The next major level of support is near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7 day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-13 Sharply Higher Soybeans Lifts Corn and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sharply higher soybeans and Brazilian weather concerns supported the corn market into the close with a bullish reversal and some likely short covering, after making a fresh new low for the move.

  • A slow planting pace due to hot and dry weather in Brazil, along with sharply higher soybean meal, took soybeans to a 35 cent gain on the day, after a 6 ¼ cent gap open Sunday night.

  • Expectations of strong US meal demand due to potentially shrinking South American crops continues to underpin soybean meal, which printed a new contract high as it briefly locked limit up. Meanwhile, spillover strength from soybeans and meal rallied bean oil 1.71 cents off its low to close .34 cents higher on the day.

  • Carryover support from corn and soybeans rallied most of the wheat complex to close in positive territory, except for December Minneapolis. Though the closing gains were minor, the market collectively settled between 6 and 11 cents off the respective lows, and may have triggered some short covering on the rally.

  • To see the US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Brazil and Argentina 2-week precipitation forecasts, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and the CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a strong day in the corn market to start the week, as concerns over Brazil weather and heavy buying in the soybean market spilled over into the corn market, triggering short covering. The strong close and positive price action could lead to some additional follow-through buying going into tomorrow’s session.

  • Weather forecasts stay extremely hot and dry for Brazil grain producing areas for the next 10-days.  Weather models are looking at some potential rains at the end of that time period, but accuracy of longer-range models is questionable. Brazilian corn futures traded sharply higher on the day, trying to encourage producers to plant the important 2nd crop Brazil corn.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were within analysts’ expectations during Monday’s USDA Inspections report.  Last week, U.S. exports shipped 609,000 mt of corn (24 mb), year to date, total inspections are at 6.161 mmt, up 23% over last year.

  • The USDA Crop Progress report will likely show that corn harvest is in the last legs. Last week, the harvest was 81% complete. That total should be closer to the 90% window with just the northern states lagging in harvest.

  • With the bump in prices, rallies may stay limited due to harvest pressure and large supplies available after the completion of a potential near record 2023 corn crop.

Above: Front month corn posted a bullish key reversal after printing a new low for the move on Nov. 13. The market continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive to the reversal. If prices can push through overhead resistance near 484, prices could move higher to test 500 – 509 ½. If not, support below the market remains 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day with big gains thanks to a sharp rally in soybean meal, as export demand heats up. Hot and dry conditions in Brazil have been very supportive, while southern Brazil deals with excessive rains. Soybean oil managed to close slightly higher, along with crude oil.

  • China has become a much more active buyer of US soybeans since Brazil’s stores began getting emptied with China and unknown destinations purchasing nearly 100 mb of soybeans just last week. A flash sale was also reported today of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • Soybean planting in Brazil is now estimated at 57% complete by Safras & Mercado, which is behind last year’s pace of 67%. There are also estimates that 20-25% of Brazilian soybeans will need to be replanted due to the dry conditions.

  • Last week’s WASDE report was slightly bearish, but received a much more negative reaction, which may have been offset today. Yields were increased by 0.3 bpa to 49.9 bpa, which increased production by 25 mb and that went right to increasing the ending stocks to 245 mb.

Above: January soybeans closed sharply higher following a gap higher open on Nov. 13. The development is bullish, though resistance remains overhead between 1385 and 1410, and the market may seek to fill the gap left from 1349 ¾. If the market can close above 1410, it would be poised to make a run toward 1490 – 1505. If not, initial support below the market rests between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1317.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in positive territory, despite trading lower this morning. Today’s gains in wheat were minimal, and it was likely pulled higher by corn and especially the sharply higher soybean market. If  the wheat export inspections were better, there may have been more of a rally. However, inspections of just 7.6 mb were poor; this brings the total 23/24 inspections to 274 mb, still down 26% from last year.

  • Russia’s wheat FOB export values are said to have risen by about $5-$7 per metric ton. For now, they are still very competitive and getting much of the world’s export business. However, this change could indicate that wheat prices may begin to rise globally. On the other hand, the USDA report last week did result in a 5 mmt increase to Russia’s crop to 90 mmt, so they will likely remain competitive on exports.

  • Although there are problems in Brazil, Argentina’s weather has turned more favorable. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat production is estimated at 15.4 mmt, with their harvest now 14.4% complete, compared with 9.3% last week.

  • China looks like it will remain the world’s top wheat importer for the second year in a row. On last week’s report, the USDA estimated that China will purchase 12 mmt of wheat for the 23/24 season. Elsewhere, Egypt is struggling with economic issues that are curbing their wheat imports, as a result of their currency losing about half its value since the beginning of 2022.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, as of November 6th, 67% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted. That is behind both the average and last year’s pace. The slowdown is attributed to wet weather and muddy fields. The heavy rainfall they have seen could reduce the planted acreage and lead to an increase in prices. 

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: December wheat rejected the bearish reversal from November 7 and traded sharply higher. It is now in range to test the October high of 604 ½ and possibly resistance near 618. If the market turns back lower, support below the market, may be found between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. The July ’24 contract is currently trading near a 25-cent premium to July ’23, which is up significantly from last July’s 60-cent discount. Weak fundamentals have driven spread activity to push July ’23 toward its contract lows, while July ’24 has been able to maintain more of its value. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, the Dec ‘23 contract has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 7 the December contract posted a bearish reversal, which may indicate lower prices ahead unless bullish information enters the market to turn prices higher. Currently, upside resistance now lies between 735 and 755, with initial support below the market near 703. The next major level of support is near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil 2 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-10 End of Day: The slide continues for corn and wheat, while beans recover in choppy trade.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following yesterday’s bearish USDA report and with the lack of fresh bullish news, traders likely added to existing short positions today, pushing the December contract to its lowest close since September 2021.  

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged and within a penny of yesterday’s low, buying entered the market with support from higher soybean oil and a similar turnaround in meal to help January soybeans close within 2 ¼ cents of the high.

  • Support from higher crude oil and lower than expected Malaysian palm oil stocks helped bean oil recover from its recent lows and support soybeans. Solid underlying export demand for US soybean meal (due to low Argentine supplies) continues to underpin nearby meal futures, which closed just 50 cents lower on the day but firmer versus the deferred contracts.

  • Despite global wheat stocks falling for the fourth year in a row and the lowest stocks to use ratio amongst the world’s major wheat exporters, all three wheat classes continued their slide following yesterday’s USDA report, as global wheat prices appear more affected by Russia’s ability to deliver cheap wheat.

  • To see the US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Brazil and Argentina 2-week precipitation forecasts, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and the CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

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Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pushed to a new nearby low on Friday and additional selling pressure fueled by hedge pressure and lack of overall bullish news weighed on the market. December corn futures lost 4 cents and was down 13 ¼ cents on the week. December corn closed at its lowest level since September of 2021.

  • Hedge pressure stays a major influence on corn prices as the last 20% of harvest gets complete. Talk of producers handling extra supplies is likely pressuring the market as the corn crop is trending larger than expected in certain areas.

  • Thursday’s Crop Production report and corn yield increase of 1.9 bushels/acre reflects the strong end to the harvest this fall. The increase in demand by the USDA was questioned by market analysts as the USDA added 50 mb to export demand, 25 mb to ethanol demand, and 50 mb to feed usage. The new export target for the marketing year is 2.075 billion bushels, a 400+ mb increase over last year. The large supply picture limits any near-term rallies.

  • The USDA data on Thursday showed that global stocks/use is expected to reach 12.5%, matching a 4-year high. Globally, stocks/use ratios of major corn exporters could reach a 6-year high, fueled by record large Brazil and US corn harvests this past growing season. The large supplies will limit price gains due to strong global competition.

  • South American weather stays in focus. Current weather models lean toward warm and dry conditions continuing into the end of the year. Forecasts for Brazil and Argentina will likely be the main driver of corn and soybean markets over the next few months.

Above: On November 3, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal with a low of 468. The 50-day moving average is just above the market at 484, and the market is oversold. If prices can push over 484, they may move higher to test 500 – 509 ½. If not, support below the market rests between 468 and 460. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after yesterday’s selloff following the USDA report and this morning’s lower open from the overnight session. Soybean meal ended slightly lower but remains near its contract highs. Soybean oil ended higher with support from crude oil and palm oil.

  • The USDA increased the national soybean yield slightly to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa which caused a negative reaction because estimates called for yields to be unchanged, but it was not a large adjustment and increased ending stocks only slightly to a still tight 245 mb.

  • South American soybean production was updated in yesterday’s report with Argentina’s 22/23 production unchanged at 25 mmt, but Brazil’s increased to 158 mmt from 156 mmt. For 23/24, Argentina’s production estimate was unchanged at 48 mmt, but Brazil’s was increased to 163 mmt despite the hot and dry planting conditions that are persisting due to El Nino.

  • While there were no reported flash sales today, flash sales yesterday were reported totaling 1,044,000 mt of soybeans to China for 23/24, and 662,500 mt were reported for delivery to unknown destinations. Export demand has picked up in this window where Brazil is planting soybeans.

Above: With the market showing signs of being overbought and after rejecting fresh market highs on November 7 and 8, it is at risk of further price erosion unless more bullish input is received. Heavy resistance rests just above the market between 1385 and 1410, while initial support remains below the market between 1334 and the 50-day moving average, and again down near 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Today wheat failed to recover, posting a negative close on follow through from yesterday’s WASDE report. At one point in this session, there was a small amount of green on the board but not enough friendly news to keep wheat in positive territory. Traders are likely focused on the fact that Russia’s crop was revised higher and that they continue to dominate the export market.

  • The USDA also raised Ukraine’s exports yesterday. And though they remain below year ago levels, it remains clear that Ukraine continues to do everything in their power to ship grain. Despite a Russian missile said to having hit a merchant ship in the Black Sea earlier this week, there are still said to be about 30 vessels in Ukraine ports waiting to load out.

  • On a bullish note, despite some of the negativity yesterday, global wheat ending stocks (excluding China) at 4.58 bb are the lowest in 15 years. Managed funds also remain short a sizeable amount of wheat, so any spark in the form of friendly news could ignite a fire under the wheat market and force them to cover that short position.

  • One piece of news hindering the wheat market today was that a French vessel loaded with 35,000 mt of wheat is headed for New York. US imports of wheat are expected to rise, according to the USDA, to 145 mb – the highest level in six years. With US wheat exports struggling and imports rising, some friendly news will be needed to help futures break out of the sideways to lower pattern.

  • Yesterday Fed Chairman Powell made comments that seemed to contrast with those after the last FOMC meeting. He now seemed to indicate that the Federal Reserve may in fact remain aggressive with interest rate increases to help curb inflation. This may keep the equity markets volatile for the time being. At the time of writing, the Dow is up over 300 points, taking back yesterday’s losses and more. This uncertainty may spill over into the grain complex as well.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: December wheat rejected the bearish reversal from November 7 and traded sharply higher. It is now in range to test the October high of 604 ½ and possibly resistance near 618. If the market turns back lower, support below the market, may be found between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. The July ’24 contract is currently trading near a 25-cent premium to July ’23, which is up significantly from last July’s 60-cent discount. Weak fundamentals have driven spread activity to push July ’23 toward its contract lows, while July ’24 has been able to maintain more of its value. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, the Dec ‘23 contract has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 7 the December contract posted a bearish reversal, which may indicate lower prices ahead unless bullish information enters the market to turn prices higher. Currently, upside resistance now lies between 735 and 755, with initial support below the market near 703. The next major level of support is near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.