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2-29 End of Day: Grain Markets Settle Mostly Higher on Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Garnering support from higher wheat, the corn market settled slightly higher and well off its lows from earlier in the session. The lack of deliveries in the March contract supported prices as traders continued to roll their short March positions to the deferred contracts.

  • Higher than expected deliveries against the March contract added a layer of resistance to the soybean market, which like corn, traded on both sides of unchanged before settling lower on the day. Weekly export sales also came in at the low end of expectations with nearly 400 metric tons cancelled from unknown destinations.  

  • Both soybean meal and oil settled in the green, with bean oil mostly near unchanged, while meal gained $2 in the March and $1.70 in the May. Strong meal sales added support as they are currently running 22% ahead of last year.

  • The wheat complex settled mostly higher on the day with the March contracts gaining on the deferreds as traders look to roll existing short March positions to other delivery months.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast, as a percent of normal, for Brazil courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy two-sided trade dominated the corn market that saw both sides of unchanged but closed with only modest gains, but well off the lows, as bull spreading gave strength to the front months over the deferreds.

  • This morning, the USDA reported export sales for the week ending February 22. Last week, corn export sales totaled 42.6 mb for 23/24 and 6.5 mb for 24/25, which were at the upper end of expectations, and puts total commitments 30% ahead of last year. Shipments last week totaled 47.9 mb and were above the 45.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.1 bb.

  • Today was First Notice Day for deliveries on the March contracts, and there were no deliveries issued. This lent support to the March contract as short contract holders continue to roll positions to the May.

  • Futures open interest has steadily fallen since last week with the number of open contracts down over 100,000 contracts from last Thursday. This, with the recent rally, implies that traders are liquidating some of their short positions. There is currently very little, if any, weather premium in the market, and as planting season nears, weather will become a more influential factor for both here and in Brazil.

  • Current Brazilian weather is still considered non-threatening for crops, helping the key second crop Brazilian corn crop get off to a strong start. Moisture levels overall are still limited, so rainfall will need to stay timely as the crop develops.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after another day of volatile trade. Prices were sharply lower earlier this morning following a large number of deliveries against the March contract. Export sales were at the low end of expectations and there were some cancellations. Interestingly, the front months in both soybean meal and oil closed higher.

  • With First Notice Day today came a surprisingly large number of deliveries totaling 702 contracts against the March futures, which initially drove prices down before they rebounded slightly. There will likely be more deliveries tomorrow which could pressure the March contract even more against the May.

  • Today’s Export Sales report showed an increase of just 5.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. This was up from last week but down 30% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 40.5 mb were well above the 18.2 mb needed to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Mexico. There were cancellations of 392 mt of soybeans from unknown destinations.

  • Next week the USDA will release its WASDE report and trade will look to see if adjustments are made to South America’s expected production. Argentina is expected to produce double what was produced in the drought last year, and Brazil was estimated to produce 156 mmt of soybeans in the USDA’s February update despite most other analysts estimating the number closer to 149 mmt.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade wheat closed mostly higher; September Chicago wheat onward posted small losses. On the bearish side, there were 484 deliveries of Chicago wheat, which was more than anticipated. However, momentum on some technical indicators still point to the upside for wheat as it moves out of oversold territory.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.8 mb were above the 17.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 725 mb.

  • Argentina is set to receive abundant rain over the next several days that will fall over most of their agriculture producing areas. The southwestern areas will receive less precipitation, but it is still expected to benefit the corn and soybean crops. As it pertains to wheat, this should help recharge soil moisture before the upcoming planting.

  • According to Russian Ag Minister, Dmitry Patrushev, Russia has no interest in renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This deal between Russia and Ukraine ended last July, but Ukraine has been successful in exporting grain via their own corridor. It is estimated that combined Russian and Ukrainian grain exports for February were a record 6.5 mmt. Russian wheat FOB values also continue to fall, weighing on the export market.

  • India is said to be preparing to purchase between 30 and 32 mmt of 23/24 wheat, according to their food ministry. For reference, the Indian government purchased 26 mmt of wheat from the 22/23 crop for its welfare programs versus a target of 34.2 mmt. Note – India is the world’s second largest wheat producer and is also the second largest consumer. 

  • The wildfires in Texas are said to have expanded to the second largest in state history. Residents living in the panhandle area were ordered to evacuate as schools and highways were shut down. This is the worst wildfire in nearly two decades. Texas is experiencing drought which only worsens the issue. It is unknown what impact this will have on the wheat crop at this time, but it is expected that there will be some damage.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, that could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-28 End of Day: Corn Follows Through on Yesterday’s Gains, While Beans Firm and Wheat Slides

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Solid weekly corn usage for ethanol production and continued short covering helped support the corn market for the third day in a row as traders squared positions ahead of month-end and tomorrow’s First Notice Day, when long March futures holders are notified of delivery against any open positions.

  • The soybean complex closed in mixed fashion with beans following through on yesterday’s gains, while soybean meal and oil closed in opposite directions, with meal higher and bean oil weaker. Soybeans rallied into its midday highs but were unable to hold on to the rally as weakness from soybean oil weighed on Board crush values and soybeans from a weaker energy market.

  • Following choppy trade, the wheat complex closed mostly lower on the day as it consolidates from being oversold with weakness spilling over from sharply lower Paris milling wheat. The March contracts likely saw additional volatility as participants squared positions ahead of First Notice Day.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the US and South American root zone drought indicators, and the 2-week precipitation forecasts for Brazil courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, NASA-Grace and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw positive money flow for the 3rd consecutive session on Wednesday as the market saw additional short covering and position squaring going into the end of the month and First Notice Day on the March futures. March and May corn futures added 5 cents respectively during the session.

  • On Wednesday’s EIA report, weekly ethanol production slipped last week to 1.078 mbd, down slightly from last week and 7% from last year. There were 107 million bushels of corn used in ethanol production last week, which is still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA projections. Ethanol stocks increased to 26 million barrels, which was at the high end of expectations and well above last year’s 24.8 million barrels level.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 600,000 – 1.2 mmt. Last week’s sales were 820,400 mmt. Corn sales need to push the top end of the range in this time window since the US is still competitive with global corn prices.

  • The recent push higher in corn prices could be met by farmer selling, which will likely limit the potential in the near term since the corn market is still working through a picture of heavy front-end supplies of corn.

  • Current Brazilian weather is still considered non-threatening for crops, helping the key second crop Brazilian corn crop get off to a strong start. Moisture levels overall are still limited, so rainfall will need to stay timely as the crop develops.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, but like yesterday, faded significantly from earlier morning highs. Soybeans have not rallied off their contract lows as well as corn has with the May contract just 12 cents off the low from Monday. Poor export sales and an ongoing Brazilian harvest have been bearish.

  • Soybean meal finished the day higher after making a new contract low yesterday while soybean oil closed lower and near its contract lows. While crush margins have narrowed recently, they remain profitable, and domestic crush demand has been relatively supportive.

  • South American weather has improved from January with harvest progressing in Brazil and now more than 40% complete, while Argentina has benefitted from scattered showers consistently. Argentina’s crop is expected to end up double the size or larger of last year’s drought ridden crop.

  • Yesterday, there was bullish news early in the day of an announcement by private exporters of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24. This was the first flash sale reported in over a week as cheaper Brazilian soybeans take export demand from the US.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in all three US classes, except for March Kansas City, which gained 2 cents on the day. Weakness can be blamed in part on Paris milling wheat futures, which closed sharply lower. Also, the US Dollar Index was marginally higher at the grain close, but well off the daily high that provided early pressure as well. GDP data today showed that the economy remains strong; inflation might also show signs of easing. These factors may lead to the US Dollar strengthening which would continue to pressure wheat.

  • Black Sea weather has been mostly favorable this winter, with good soil moisture levels, and the wheat in that region may be coming out of dormancy early due to warmer conditions. However, a cold front may move in next week. Nonetheless, nothing seems to be slowing down Russia’s exports. Their FOB values are said to have reached as low as $209 per metric ton. And with Ukraine’s grain shipments in February up 12% year on year, it is not surprising that US wheat is struggling.

  • European Union soft wheat exports, as of February 22, were down 3% year on year at 20.5 mmt. Their export season begins July 1, and last year’s exports for this time frame totaled 21.1 mmt. North African countries were the leading importers of this wheat, with Morocco the front runner at 3 mmt.

  • The warm and dry February here in the US has left the Mississippi River with low water levels; usually they are rising at this time of year. NOAA is projecting near-normal precipitation for March, which should help if forecasts verify. Currently, the upper Mississippi is set to reopen between March 4-16 which is a typical spring start date. While the direct impact to the wheat market is minimal at this time of year, the river is one of the main routes for US grain exports and is also vital for the shipping of fertilizer.

  • With dryness and heavy winds, wildfires were said to have impacted 60 Texas counties, primarily in the panhandle. The fires are said to have also spread to parts of Oklahoma and Nebraska. This may have caused some damage to the wheat crop, but it will take some time to assess.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-27 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Maintain Yesterday’s Strength, While Beans Fade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Choppy two-sided trade dominated the corn market which settled midway in a rather tight 5 ¼ cent range with only modest gains from yesterday’s key reversal higher. Support came from continued technical short covering and a higher wheat market, while upward resistance came from generally favorable SA weather and weaker soybeans.

  • Early follow through strength from the overnight session faded throughout the day in soybeans with weakness carrying over from lower soybean meal and rumors that one of China’s major trading firms may look to switch US purchased beans to a cheaper SA origin for spring delivery.

  • Soybean meal and oil diverged in today’s trade with soybean oil settling higher on the day and following through on yesterday’s rally, with strength coming from higher Malaysian palm oil and crude oil. Meal retreated from overnight gains to make new contract lows. Slowing US feed demand and competition from cheaper Argentine supplies added to the downward pressure.

  • More technical short covering from yesterday’s bullish reversals and comments from Ukraine’s President Zelensky stating that the country may not be able to defend its own export corridor without additional help, added to today’s bullish tone in the wheat complex. All three classes of the wheat complex closed in the upper end of their respective ranges for the second day in a row.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, as well as the 1-week precipitation forecasts for South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • For the second consecutive session, corn futures finished higher, holding on to yesterday’s gains. May corn futures gained 2 cents on the session. This is the first time since February 13th that corn futures posted consecutive daily gains. Despite the recent strength, the overall trend in the corn market remains bearish.

  • Corn prices were supported by additional short covering and technical buying after Monday’s turn higher and strong price action. Strength in the wheat market spilled over and helped support corn futures. The heavy supply picture and soybean prices fading, limited gains in the corn market on the session.

  • The corn market may stay choppy through the end of the week. Squaring up trade for the end of the month, and the influence of price action during first notice day on the March contract will likely keep the market choppy. First notice day is on Thursday this week.

  • In Brazil, second crop (safrinha) corn planting progress is running well ahead of the 5-year pace. The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, reported that planting of the Safrinha corn in Brazil was 59% complete last week. The strong early planting pace and overall friendly weather pattern should get the second crop corn off to a good start.

  • Confirmation of China buying Ukrainian corn limited market upside. Prices paid for the purchase were $227-$230/mt including freight. The prices are cheaper than current US export bids.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the session which saw prices as much as 16 cents higher earlier in the day before soybean meal faded, weighing on soybeans. Soybean oil managed to close higher along with crude oil. The majority of selling pressure was in the front months with November beans unchanged on the day.

  • Bullish news early in the day came from the announcement by private exporters of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24. This was the first flash sale reported in over a week as cheaper Brazilian soybeans take export demand from the US.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated at 40% complete which compares with 33% the previous year at this time. With Brazil’s harvest ongoing, cash soybeans have fallen to prices significantly below those in the US, and there have been recent reports of Brazilian soybeans being imported into the US.

  • Domestic demand has remained firm thanks to profitable crush margins, despite having narrowed over the past few months. The use of soybean oil as renewable diesel has been supportive to demand.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheats were higher again today. Funds may be covering more of their short positions as the technical recovery continues. Additional support may have stemmed from comments by Ukraine’s President Zelensky; he indicated that without US military assistance, they may not be able to defend their humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea.

  • Some parts of the US have seen abnormally warm or even record temperatures this month. Areas of Nebraska and the Texas panhandle saw upwards of 80 to 90 degrees, and strong winds may be stressing the HRW crop. And with a major cold front moving through the Midwest over the next 24 hours, there are concerns that some areas may have the opposite problem, frost damage.

  • Heavy rain over the weekend hit parts of Australia from the remnant of tropical cyclone, Lincoln. In general, however, soil moisture is lacking in much of the country ahead of wheat planting, with more rain needed in the coming months to recharge moisture levels.

  • Several states released their individual winter wheat conditions. Kansas rated their crop 57% good to excellent, up from 54% in the week ending January 28, and just 13% was rated poor to very poor. Colorado and Nebraska saw slight declines, but most states that released data showed improvements.

  • Brazil’s wheat imports are said to be on the rise due to a lack of available high quality domestic wheat. According to Secex, Brazil’s wheat imports as of the third week in February totaled 383,950 tons, compared with 291,630 last February. Additionally, exports at just 56.090 million metric tons are well below the 533.42 mmt for the same time period in 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices follow through from the bullish reversal on February 26. If they follow through to the upside, resistance may come in around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below the market may come in near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-26 End of Day: The Grain Complex Closes in the Green After Reversing off the Day’s Lows

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Once new lows were posted in the March and May corn futures contracts, prices rebounded to close with a bullish reversal as traders likely covered short positions. Weekly corn export inspections came in at a marketing year high and managed funds show a new record net short position of nearly 341k contracts.

  • Early weakness on reports of additional cargoes of Brazilian soybeans entering the US East Coast for Perdue Farms gave way to higher prices after making fresh contract lows in both the March and May contracts, with support coming from firmer soybean oil and corn.

  • KC wheat led the wheat complex higher with positive closes and bullish reversals in all three classes. Solid wheat export inspections that came in at a 7-week high and above expectations lent support along with higher corn futures.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, as well as the 1-week precipitation forecasts for South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices rebounded on the session today as the market saw moderate gains. March corn gained 7 ¼ cents and May futures added 8 cents during the session. 

  • Corn futures saw a short covering rally as the managed money moved to a record short position on last week’s Commitment of Traders report. As of last Tuesday, hedge funds were short of a net 340,723 contracts, pushing through the previous record short position from 2019.

  • The strong price action on Monday has the corn market improved technically as daily charts posted key reversals on the session. With a heavily oversold market, prices could see an additional corrective bounce, despite overall bearish fundamentals.

  • In Brazil, second crop corn plant progress is running well ahead of the 5-year pace. Weather at this point is not an issue, but talk of a possible change in the weather patterns is a focus of the markets, helping lead to the short covering rally.

  • Weekly export shipments for corn were strong last week. US exporters shipped 48.9 mb (1.242 mmt) of corn, which was above expectations. Currently export inspections are up 36% over last year, and slightly ahead of the pace to meet the USDA’s export targets.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support just below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 26,391 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 340,732 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed throughout the day with prices significantly lower near midday before rebounding into the close. The front months ended higher, while the November contract was slightly lower. This was also the theme for soybean meal and oil in which the front months gained on the deferred months, although the deferred contracts in meal did settle lower on the day.

  • Soybean export inspections were within expectations totaling 35.8 mb for the week ending Thursday, February 22. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 1,214 mb, which is down 22% from the previous year. No flash sales were reported today or last week, and last week’s export sales report was a marketing year low with net cancellations.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 38.03% complete which compares with 34.51% at this time last year. With Brazil’s harvest ongoing, cash soybeans have fallen to prices significantly below those in the US, and there have been recent reports of Brazilian soybeans being imported into the US.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 2,177 contracts of soybeans last week leaving them short 136,677 contracts. This is the largest net short position in soybeans since 2019. Today’s reversal could be an indication that the funds are beginning to lighten this short position, but it could also have to do with first notice day for March futures which is this Thursday.

Above: After posting a recent high just above 1190, the market has drifted lower into 1140 support from October 2020. If 1140 support fails, the next major support level may come in between 1040 and 1050. Otherwise, 1190 – 1205 may act as resistance if prices turn back around.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,177 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 136,677 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finally stopped the bleeding, posting a higher close in all three classes and a bullish reversal alongside corn and soybeans. Early weakness, in part due to another lower close for Matif futures, was rebuffed. However, there was no major news to trigger this rally, indicating that it was likely technical in nature.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 17.7 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections to 463 mb. All things considered this is a decent number for the week. But with that said, inspections are still down 18% from last year and running behind the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • On a bearish note, Russian wheat exports continue to dominate. Their FOB wheat values are said to have declined again, to between $210 and $213 per mt. This may limit the upside potential of the US market for some time to come.

  • Between February 14 and 20, funds are said to have added just over 18,000 short wheat contracts, bringing their combined Chicago and Kansas City net short position to just over 110,000 contracts. While not a record like in corn, it is still a large number of contracts that keeps the market primed for a potential short covering rally.   

  • According to Ukrainian officials, 160 tons of their grain was destroyed at a railway station in Poland due to large protests. While 160 tons is not much in the big picture, the reasoning for the destruction is what is important; Polish farmers are said to be protesting unfair competition from Ukraine. Despite a major war in their nation, the Ukrainians have been very successful at getting grain exported, even with the closure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, the next major support level below 555 may come in around 540.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 12,852 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 68,524 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,499 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 41,907 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to show signs of being oversold, and is supportive if prices follow through from the bullish reversal on February 26. If they follow through to the upside, resistance may come in around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below the market may come in near 600.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 665 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 24,167 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-23 End of Day: Disappointing Export Sales Contribute to the Grain Market’s Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Mediocre corn export sales that came in at a 6-week low, along with lower soybeans added to the negativity in the corn market that closed lower for the third day in a row and below 400 for the first time since October of 2020.

  • Dismal export sales for soybeans at 2.1 mb and a marketing year low weighed heavily on March soybeans which posted a new contract low and low close.

  • Soybean meal and oil both closed lower on the day adding to the negative tone in the soybean complex. While the March contracts in both meal and oil posted new contract lows and low closes, March Board crush margins posted a 5-cent gain.

  • All three wheat classes closed lower on the day with Chicago and Minneapolis the weakest of the three. Pressure from lower corn and soybeans, along with weaker Matif wheat added to the negativity. For the week, both Chicago and KC were able to hold earlier gains while Minneapolis posted a net loss.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, as well as the 2-week precipitation forecasts for South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures stayed under selling pressure for the third consecutive session as the March futures lost 6 ¼ cents and May lost 5 cents. This is the 12 lower session in the last 16 trading sessions, and March corn closed under the key 400 psychological price level. The last time corn closed under 400 was in October of 2020.

  • The month of February has been difficult on the corn market as prices were down 16 ¾ cents on the week and have lost 48 ½ cents so far this month. This month saw a combination of factors, basis contract pricing, March option expiration, and First notice day approaching on the 29th, which have all added to the market volatility.

  • Weekly export sales for corn were within trade expectations, but softer compared to previous weeks.  Last week, the US sold 32.3 mb (820,400 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year. This was down 37% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. Total sales are still running up 29% from last year.

  • The Brazilian corn market traded sharply lower on the session, testing limit down during the day. Rumors of China buying Ukrainian corn at less than $230/mt, cheaper than US and Brazil prices pressured the corn market.

  • On Thursday’s report, weekly ethanol production ticked up last week to 1.084 million barrels/day, up 5% from last year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 25.5 million barrels, and 108.6 million bushels of corn were used last week in ethanol production, which is still running ahead of USDA expected pace for the marketing year.

Above: The corn market continues to drift lower with little bullish input to trigger a turnaround from extreme oversold conditions. Psychological 400 support rests just below the current market, with further support down around 390. If prices can hold support and turn back higher, overhead resistance remains between 450 and 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower for a third consecutive day and have lost 45 cents just within these last three days. Export sales were very poor, weather in South America has been favorable, and non-commercials continue to sell contracts, potentially generating new record short positions. March soybeans made a new contract low today and both soybean meal and oil were lower as well.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 39 ¼ cents to end at 1133, March soybean meal lost $14.10 to $331.50, and March soybean oil lost 1.57 cents to 44.02 cents.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 2.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, which was way below expectations and a marketing year low. There were net cancellations by China which could become a theme with Brazilian soybeans so much cheaper than the US. Year to date commitments are now 20% below that of last year. Export shipments for last week of 44.0 mb were significantly higher than the 19.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.720 bb. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.

  • In Brazil, soybean basis fell today and soybeans FOB in Paranagua have reportedly fallen to 80 cents below March futures in the US. This comes amid harvest in which Brazil is over 30% completed. Estimates for total production are still within a very wide range with the lower estimates at 145 mmt and the USDA’s highest estimate at 156 mmt.

Above: After posting a recent high just above 1190, the market has drifted lower into 1140 support from October 2020. If 1140 support fails, the next major support level may come in between 1040 and 1050. Otherwise, 1190 – 1205 may act as resistance if prices turn back around.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes closed lower today, in tandem with Paris milling wheat. Pressure stemmed from another day of lower corn and soybean prices. Additionally, US wheat may be coming out of dormancy early, due to the recent warm weather. The Plains states have chances of moisture in the second week of the forecast but may be warmer than normal through the end of the month. However, conditions look much better when compared to a year ago at this time.

  • Weekly wheat export sales were on the disappointing side. The USDA reported an increase of 8.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 1.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week were only 13.7 mb, which is behind the 17.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 725 mb. However, commitments at 655 mb are up 6% from last year and above the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • According to FranceAgriMer, as of February 19, French wheat was rated just 69% good to very good. For reference, the crop was rated at 95% a year ago. Weather is cited as the reason for the decline. France already struggled to get the crop sown due to wet weather late in the planting season.

  • Through the week ending February 17, Mississippi River barge shipments declined 8.4% from the previous week at 535k versus 584k tons. However, wheat in particular saw an 18.5% increase in shipments, at 32k versus 27k tons. Although, year on year wheat shipments are down 10.3%.

  • In general, there has not been much news directly affecting wheat this week. This may indicate that the back and forth trade is technical in nature. When bulls think price has gone low enough, they start to buy, and the funds may be selling any rallies. And though wheat ended the week with a negative tone, March Chicago wheat did gain 13 cents on a weekly basis.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. For now, if prices can continue to proceed higher the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. If they turn back lower, initial support remains near 555, with the next major support level down around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rejecting the bullish reversal on Feb. 20, the May ’24 contract traded through 650 support and continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive if a bullish catalyst presents itself to turn prices back higher. If prices progress to the downside, the next major support level below the market may come in near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-22 End of Day: Corn and Beans Continue Lower Thursday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Spot corn futures fell to a new contract low for the ninth time in the past 12 trading days today as competition from cheap Ukrainian corn has likely drawn potential buyers away from US corn.

  • Soybean futures closed lower again today as pressure from ongoing Brazilian harvest, as well as an improved short-term forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil plagued the entire soybean complex.

  • Wheat futures were unable to build on strong upside momentum at the beginning of the daily trading session today as Chicago futures closed just slightly higher while KC and Spring wheat futures closed lower. Spillover weakness from corn and soybean futures added outside pressure.  

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the US Monthly Drought Outlook courtesy of NOAA, UNL and the NCEI scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke to new lows for the second consecutive session and have traded lower 5 out of the past 6 sessions. March corn lost 5 cents, and May was 5 ¾ cents lower on the day. Going into Friday, the March corn futures is trading 10 ½ cents lower on the week.

  • Friday’s session could have an increased amount of volatility as March grain options expire. Markets can typically move to areas with a large open interest for specific options and increase volatility during the trading day.

  • The March futures contract reaches First Notice Day, February 29. Until then, producers with basis contracts will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. The combination of pricing basis contracts and a large commercial net long position can pressure the corn market in this time window.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina lowered its estimated corn crop for this growing season to 57 MMT down 2MMT from 59 MMT last month. The exchange stated that production losses due to heat wave in January and early February impacted production forecasts.

  • The weekly corn export sales report will be pushed back until Friday morning due to the President’s Day holiday. Expectations for new corn sales are to range from 700,000 – 1.5 MMT for last week as U.S. corn is still competitive in the global export market at this point.

Above: Front month corn rejected the reversal on Feb. 20 and turned back lower. The general lack of bullish news continues to drag on prices which could continue to drift lower toward 415 support in the May contract unless some bullish input enters the marketplace. If that happens and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains between 450 – 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower for the second consecutive day for a combined loss of 31 cents in the March contract. Pressure has come from the ongoing Brazilian harvest, improved weather in South America, and cheaper Brazilian soybean offers compared to the US.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today as well with both March soybean meal and soybean oil making new contract lows. Crush margins have narrowed significantly from January but remain profitable for now.

  • In Brazil, soybean basis fell today and soybeans FOB in Paranagua have reportedly fallen to 80 cents below March futures in the US. This comes amid harvest in which Brazil is over 30% completed. Estimates for total production are still within a very wide range with the lower estimates at 145 mmt and the USDA’s highest estimate at 156 mmt.

  • A large factor in yesterday’s lower prices in the grain complex came from the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes which showed that the Fed is more concerned about cutting rates too fast rather than keeping them high. This could cause the dollar to rally, which is bearish for commodities.

Above: Front month soybeans’ attempt to test overhead resistance failed after printing a high just above 1490. That failure suggests that overhead resistance now rests between 1490 and 1205 and that prices could drift further toward 1140 – 1145 support without fresh bullish input. The market continues to be oversold, which can provide additional support if a bullish catalyst does spur prices back higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a strong start to the session, wheat closed with only small gains in Chicago, and losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis futures. Early strength may have been fund short covering, however spillover weakness in the corn and soybean markets may take some of the blame for the sharp turnaround.

  • Paris milling wheat futures closed with a gain of 3.75 Euros per metric ton in the front month March contract. This, along with a significant decline in the US Dollar added to early support. However, the Dollar gained strength throughout the day, adding pressure back onto the market by the close.

  • Reportedly, the Biden administration may issue new sanctions on Russia beginning March 1. The announcement may be made as soon as tomorrow. At any rate, wheat out of the Black Sea region continues to be offered much more cheaply than other origins, as long as this remains the case it will be difficult for US futures to rally.

  • Managed funds are still said to hold a hefty net short position in both Chicago and KC wheat. If the market does receive friendly news in the form of weather, politics, or something else, it could lead to a short covering rally. However, they are also momentum traders, and may add short positions until there is a better sign of a bottom.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. For now, if prices can continue to proceed higher the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. If they turn back lower, initial support remains near 555, with the next major support level down around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal on Feb. 20 indicates that there is support below the market around 650. This reversal and the fact that the market is oversold could trigger short covering and lead prices toward 680 – 690 resistance. If the reversal doesn’t hold and prices retreat further, the next major support level remains near 595.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-21 End of Day: Corn and Beans Set New Lows for the Move

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover pressure from soybeans weighed on the corn market along with improved South American weather and reports that Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is getting planted well ahead of last year’s pace. Both March and May corn gave up yesterday’s advances to print new contract lows and low closes.

  • Despite reports of another South American crop watcher lowering Brazil’s soybean crop, the fact that Brazil’s soybean harvest is over 30% complete and entering the export pipeline at prices considerably lower than US offers, continues to weigh on the soybean market. Today, all three legs of the soybean complex posted losses, with both soybeans and meal giving up yesterday’s gains and March beans printing a new low for the move.

  • While the lack of follow through from yesterday’s strong close in the wheat complex was disappointing, Chicago wheat clawed back most of the losses to close near the upper end of the range with the March contract posting a small gain. Upward resistance came from lower Matif wheat futures and reports that Russia’s FOB export prices dropped $5 per mt to $218.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day US temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the Grace-Based drought indicator for South America, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, NASA Grace and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke to new lows during the session as selling pressure from the soybean market spilled over into the corn market. March corn lost 7 ¾ cents and May corn dropped 8 ¼ cents during the session.

  • The March futures contract reaches First Notice Day, February 29. Until then, producers with basis contracts will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. The combination of pricing basis contracts and a large commercial net long position can pressure the corn market in this time window.

  • With a strong harvest pace for Brazil soybean, the second crop corn planting is running well ahead of schedule. As of last week, an estimated 45.3% of the crop was planted versus 33.3% last year. The key producing state of Mato Grasso was 67.1% completed with the second crop corn.

  • South American weather is currently non-threatening overall. The improved forecast should help maintain the forecasted strong Argentina corn crop and promote a good start to the second crop Brazil corn.

  • The weekly corn export sales report will be pushed back until Friday morning due to the President’s Day holiday. US corn is very competitive on the global market at this point, and current export sales are trending 30% higher than last than last year’s levels.

Above: Front month corn rejected the reversal on Feb. 20 and turned back lower. The general lack of bullish news continues to drag on prices which could continue to drift lower toward 415 support in the May contract unless some bullish input enters the marketplace. If that happens and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains between 450 – 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, wiping out all of yesterday’s gains and then some with pressure from improved South American weather and South American cash offers that are well below those from the US. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well while crude oil moved higher.

  • US soybeans are currently 4% per metric ton more expensive than Brazil with the basis difference US +$1.58 over Brazil for the month of March. While yesterday’s export inspections were stronger than anticipated, the possibility of Chinese cancellations in favor of Brazilian soybeans remains.

  • Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated to be over 30% harvested, and estimates for total production are still being lowered. Agroconsult sees production at 152.2 mmt which is a reduction of 1.6 mmt, and another crop scout is estimating production at 145 mmt, far below the USDA’s last estimate of 156 mmt.

  • While US soybean export sales are currently behind those of last year, Brazil’s exports remain strong. However, Brazilian export sales are expected to fall slightly for the month of February from last year. Exports are expected to reach 7.3 mmt for February, which compares to 7.55 mmt in the same month a year ago.

Above: Front month soybeans’ attempt to test overhead resistance failed after printing a high just above 1490. That failure suggests that overhead resistance now rests between 1490 and 1205 and that prices could drift further toward 1140 – 1145 support without fresh bullish input. The market continues to be oversold, which can provide additional support if a bullish catalyst does spur prices back higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading in negative territory the majority of the day, March Chicago wheat managed to come back just above water by the close, with a gain of a half cent. Even though the rest of the Chicago contracts posted small losses, they still closed well off session lows – a potentially encouraging sign. What is discouraging is the fact that yesterday’s strength did not follow through today. But pressure from the rest of the grain complex as well as a lower close for Matif wheat offered no support during this session.

  • On a bearish note, according to their Agriculture Minister, Russia may export 70 mmt of grain in 2024. This is an increase from the previous 66 mmt estimate. The planted area in 2024 is also expected to increase by 300,000 hectares to 84.5 million ha. This does not bode well for the export market, in which Russia is already dominant.

  • According to the World Organization for Animal Health, a bird flu outbreak on farm in Peru led to the death of 4,000 birds via the virus; the remaining 27,000 animals were culled. While this may not have a direct impact on wheat at this time, the concern is that if the virus is spread on a large scale, it could affect feed demand.

  • After a near term peak on the US Dollar Index last Wednesday, the trend since then has been downward. If it continues to fall, it will make US exports more competitive, benefiting the market. However, according to IKAR, Russia’s hard wheat FOB values fell this week by five dollars to $218 per mt. With what seems like a steady drop in their export values, it will be a difficult obstacle to overcome.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. For now, if prices can continue to proceed higher the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. If they turn back lower, initial support remains near 555, with the next major support level down around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal on Feb. 20 indicates that there is support below the market around 650. This reversal and the fact that the market is oversold could trigger short covering and lead prices toward 680 – 690 resistance. If the reversal doesn’t hold and prices retreat further, the next major support level remains near 595.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-20 End of Day: Wheat Leads the Markets’ Strong Start to the Week.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Early strength in the corn market from wheat and word of year-round E15 approval likely faded when news broke that the approval would be delayed until 2025. March corn recovered somewhat mid-session to settle mid-range, 3 cents off the high.

  • Soybeans ended the day near the low end of the range following choppy trade after prices faded from early morning highs on news of additional measures by China to stimulate their economy after it came back from its weeklong New Year’s celebrations.

  • Soybean meal continued its rally from last week with support coming from firmer basis and continued tight supplies from last month’s slowdown in crush. Soybean oil was firmer to start the day, but gave up its gains and took some support away from soybeans as follow through selling from Friday entered the market. 

  • The wheat complex rebounded in today’s session with the Chicago contracts leading the way higher. While Front month KC also reversed higher, the lead contracts in both Chicago and Minneapolis closed the day posting bullish key reversals. The market reversals from oversold conditions likely triggered short covering which added to the day’s strength.

  • To see the updated US 5-day total precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day US temperature and precipitation outlooks, and Brazil’s 1-week precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong support from the wheat market and news regarding E15 helped support corn futures to start the week. March corn added 2 ¼ cents and May was 3 cents higher on the session. 

  • The Biden administration will approve the request from a group of Midwest Governors to allow year-around sales of gasoline with higher ethanol blends. This paves the way for E15 but will wait for 2025 to start. The news brings mixed reactions – glad that change is coming, but disappointed to have to wait until 2025.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn to Japan. The 6.1 mb (155,000 mt) was slated for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • Weekly corn export inspections last week reached 36.2 mb (919,000 mt), which was within expectations. Total inspections are now at 713 mb, up 32% over last year’s disappointing totals.

  • The March futures contract reaches First Notice Day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis.

Above: The front month has rolled from the March to the May contract where May has about a 13-cent premium over the March. The May contract also shows support around 428 which equates to about 415 in the March when considering the difference in premium between the two. So far, that support is holding, and prices could turn back toward the 450 – 460 area if a bullish input enters the market. If not, prices may continue to slide toward 400 psychological support or possibly 390.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Feb. 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 16,597 contracts between Feb. 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 314,341 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but backed significantly off their earlier morning highs by about 10 cents. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil closed lower along with lower crude oil. A potentially strengthening Chinese economy, good exports, and funds nearing their record large short positions were all friendly today.

  • Over the weekend, China’s government announced that it would cut the country’s benchmark 5-year loan prime rate which was the first time it has been lowered since June. The move comes as the Chinese government looks to stimulate the economy which could be friendly for soybean demand.

  • For the week ending February 15, soybean inspections totaled 43.6 mb. This was towards the higher range of estimates and was a good number for this time of year. Total inspections of 1,175 mb are down 23% from last year.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of soybean meal to the Philippines this morning.  The sale of 228,000 mt of soybean meal were scheduled for the current marketing year. In addition to this, China is back from their holiday which could bring more purchases from the US.

  • Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 4,200 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 134,500 contracts and nearing their record short position.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Feb. 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,200 contracts between Feb. 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 134,500 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was a banner day for the wheat market, with all three US classes posting double digit gains. The first two months in Chicago wheat in particular rallied more than 20 cents. Bull spreading was noted, in which nearby futures showed more strength than deferred contracts. This may indicate some of today’s action may be short covering by the funds as well as a technical correction of oversold conditions and last week’s lows.

  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.0 mb bring the 23/24 total to 444 mb. This is down 18% from last year and is running below the USDA’s projected pace. Exports for 23/24 are estimated at 725 mb.

  • As stated by their Agriculture Ministry, only 1% to 2% of Ukraine’s winter wheat crop will be damaged and not survive the winter. Over 95% of wheat in Ukraine is winter wheat, and on average, up to 7% of the crop dies due to frost or ice. This year’s winter has been relatively mild, which accounts for the less than normal damage.

  • France’s wheat crop is said to be rated just 68% good to excellent versus 93% at this time last year. This is the poorest rating since 2020. Heavy rains during planting are cited as the reason for the lower rating. Additionally, France also planted less wheat acres than average due to the earlier weather issues.

  • Despite another three dollar per ton FOB decline in Russian wheat values last week, Ukraine is said to have offered wheat even more cheaply. At $218 per mt FOB, Ukraine found some business in Egypt’s tender, in the amount of two cargoes. Regardless, Russia is sure to remain stiff competition on the export market since both IKAR and Sov Econ estimate their wheat crop to be around 93 mmt.

  • According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, El Nino still persists, but is also steadily weakening. Four out of seven international climate models suggest that the pattern will return to neutral by April, while all seven models agree on a neutral pattern by May.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The downside breakout from the 584 – 618 congestion pattern suggests that prices may attempt to test the next support level around 555. If the 555 can hold and prices turn back higher, upside resistance will again be found between 584 and 618. If not, the next major level of support remains near the September low of 540.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Feb. 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 11,066 contracts between Feb. 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 55,672 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. In early December the July ’24 contract posted a 70-cent rally mostly on short covering activity in the front month contracts. Since then, July ’24 has drifted lower as growing conditions have seen improvement. Still, much of the growing season remains, and managed funds continue to carry a significantly short position in old crop. Even though bullish headwinds remain, this could fuel another short covering rally if any production concerns come to the forefront. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside. As the market got further extended into oversold territory and July ’24 showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Grain Market Insider also recommended on Friday to exit the remaining KC 660 puts. If you did not have a chance to exit those puts, Grain Market Insider will express a continued opportunity to exit those puts if the market retraces today’s strength back towards 570.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Feb. 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,011 contracts between Feb. 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 36,408 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. On Friday, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining KC 660 puts. If you did not have a chance to exit those puts, Grain Market Insider will express a continued opportunity to exit those puts if the market retraces today’s strength back towards 570.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal on Feb. 20 indicates that there is support below the market around 650. This reversal and the fact that the market is oversold could trigger short covering and lead prices toward 680 – 690 resistance. If the reversal doesn’t hold and prices retreat further, the next major support level remains near 595.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Feb. 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,074 contracts between Feb. 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 24,832 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-16 End of Day: Soybeans Stage a Small Recovery on Short Covering Ahead of the Long Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from the wheat complex weighed on the corn market, which also likely saw balanced support from neighboring soybeans and short covering ahead of the long three-day weekend, as prices settled mixed and near unchanged with the deferred contracts gaining on the nearby.

  • March soybeans ended the day at the top end of the day’s range and just a penny and a half off its high as traders likely covered short positions ahead of the long Presidents Day weekend, and in anticipation of new potential Chinese business next week as the country returns from its weeklong New Year’s holiday.

  • Soybean meal found support from potential short covering as prices reversed higher from being oversold and closed above yesterday’s high. Soybean oil on the other hand traded lower as sellers sent the market lower for the third day in a row. Yesterday’s huge 1.507 billion lbs NOPA soybean oil stocks estimate likely added fuel to today’s selling.

  • All three wheat classes closed in negative territory for the day and the week, with both March KC and Minneapolis printing fresh contract lows. Despite this week’s losses, US wheat exports remain at a $25 – $30 per tonne disadvantage to Russian and Ukrainian offers.  

  • To see the updated US 7-day total precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day US temperature and precipitation outlooks, and Brazil’s 2-week precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures were mixed as prices squared up off losses for the week going into the 3-day weekend. March futures lost 1 ¼ cents on the session, setting a new contract low and close. For the week, March futures traded 12 ½ cents lower, closing lower for the third consecutive week.

  • The USDA Outlook Forum projections detailed the possibility of growing corn supplies into the next marketing year. The forecasted new crop carryout of 2.532 billion bushels put the Stocks–to-use ratio at 17.22%, which would be the highest ratio since 2006, which represents a burdensome potential corn supply.

  • Weakness in the wheat market spilled over and limited rally potential in the corn market.  Wheat futures broke to new contract lows as US wheat is still expensive on the global scale.

  • The March futures contract is closing in on First Notice Day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts and commercials with a large net long position in the corn market will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. This can add additional selling pressure to the already weak corn market.

  • Managed and hedge funds are still pushing their possible record short position in the corn market as the market looks for bullish news. Funds were short 297,000+ net contracts last week on the Commitment of Traders report, and that position has likely grown given the market weakness.

Above: The continued slide in front month corn is knocking on the door of 415 support and is showing signs of being extremely oversold. If support can hold and a bullish story enters the market, the oversold status can bring additional support to rally prices back toward the 450 – 460 resistance area. If not, prices may continue to slide toward 400 psychological support or possibly 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher to end the week as non-commercials likely took profits on their short positions. There was very little friendly news this week to support prices with bearish Outlook Forum numbers from the USDA and poor export sales. Soybean meal closed higher but soybean oil was lower.

  • For the week, March soybeans lost 11 ¼ cents to end at 1172 ¼, March soybean meal lost $1.20 to end at $345.60, and March soybean oil lost 1.67 cents to end at 45.59 cents. Non-commercials were likely large sellers across the soy complex again this week with a near-record large short position.

  • In Brazil, a spokesperson for the Ag Ministry has said that they expect total production for the 23/24 soybean crop to come in at 145 mmt or lower but estimates out of Brazil remain in stark contrast with the USDA’s last estimate of 156 mmt. Either way, total South American production should be above last year.

  • Some positive news came from strong NOPA crush numbers yesterday but were still below the previous month, with the harsh January weather likely being a contributing factor. 185.8 mb of soybeans were crushed, which was below expectations but still a record number for January.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex ended the day in the red with all three classes posting heavy losses for the week; -35 ¼ cents in Chicago; -34 ¼ cents in KC; and -29 ¼ cents for Minneapolis. While March Chicago continues to hold above last November’s low of 556 ¼, both KC and Minneapolis wheat printed fresh contract lows in the March contracts.

  • The recent drop in US wheat prices has done little to help the US competitiveness in the world export markets. The US still finds itself between $25 and $30 per tonne more expensive than Russian and Ukrainian offers, which continue to dominate the world wheat market.

  • IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s 2024 grain production to 146 mmt which includes 93 mmt of wheat. The updated forecast is just above the USDA estimate of 91 mmt and it lines up with SovEcon’s latest forecast of 93.6 mmt. IKAR also raised its export estimate to 52 mmt, 1 mmt above the USDA.

  • The European firm Strategie Grains released its latest estimate of EU wheat production, and it came in at 122.6 mmt, near unchanged from last month. The firm noted high wheat ending stocks for the 23/24 season due to competition from Russia, and imports from Ukraine.

  • Later this afternoon, the CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report showing net positions for large speculative and commercial institutions as of Tuesday, February 13. Given the steep declines that occurred late this week, it is unlikely that this update will show substantial increases in net short positions. But, based on recent activity, it is estimated that Managed Funds hold a net short position totaling 80,000 contracts in Chicago wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The downside breakout from the 584 – 618 congestion pattern suggests that prices may attempt to test the next support level around 555. If the 555 can hold and prices turn back higher, upside resistance will again be found between 584 and 618. If not, the next major level of support remains near the September low of 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The 575 support level in front month Chicago failed to hold and prices may continue to recede toward the next major support level around 530. That said, the market is showing signs of being extremely oversold, and if a bullish impetus arises, prices could turn back higher on short covering. If prices do turn around, overhead resistance may be found between 590 and 600.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to drift lower, and with the failure of 669 support, the market is at risk of drifting further toward the next major support level around 595 unless a bullish catalyst enters the scene. Although, prices are trending lower. The market is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse from fresh bullish input. If that happens, the first level of resistance may come in around 680 – 690.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-15 End of Day: Markets Continue Downward Slide with All Contracts Closing in the Red

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A weak technical picture and projections for growing supplies from the USDA Outlook Forum kept downward pressure on the corn market despite solid export sales that came in at the upper end of expectations and ahead of last year’s numbers.

  • While NOPA crush members crushed a record amount of soybeans for the month of January, the totals came in well below expectations, and that along with bearish, though not surprising, USDA Outlook Forum numbers, was enough to press soybeans lower for the third consecutive day.

  • Soybean meal and oil also closed lower on the day, both posting losses mostly in line with soybeans, though March Board crush margins narrowed 3 ¾ cents to 90 ¾ cents per bushel.

  • All three wheat classes ended the day in the red with Chicago again leading the charge south, and both March contracts in KC and Minneapolis set fresh contract lows. Adding to the negativity were bearish USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers and an updated forecast from SovEcon that raised expectations of a bigger Russian wheat crop.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Difficult day in grain markets, and that pressured corn futures to new lows. The USDA Outlook Forum projections detailed the possibility of growing corn supplies into the next marketing year. March corn lost 6 ½ cents on the session.

  • The technical picture and price action in corn remains weak and the March contract closed under 420, leaving the market more susceptible to downside pressure.

  • The USDA Outlook projections estimated corn acreage for the 24/25 crop at 91 million acres and trend line yield at 181 bpa. This combination puts estimated production at 15.040 billion bushels and forecasts new crop carryout to 2.532 billion bushels.

  • Corn export sales stay active. Weekly export sales were near the top end of expectations at 51.5 mb (1.307 mmt), and export pace needs to stay strong in this window to meet the USDA’s goal. Total corn sales are now at 1.426 billion bushels, up 30% from last year.

  • The March futures contract is closing in on first notice day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts and commercials with a large net long position in the corn market will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. This can add additional selling pressure to the already weak corn market.

Above: The continued slide in front month corn is knocking on the door of 415 support and is showing signs of being extremely oversold. If support can hold and a bullish story enters the market, the oversold status can bring additional support to rally prices back toward the 450 – 460 resistance area. If not, prices may continue to slide toward 400 psychological support or possibly 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed significantly lower again today after yesterday’s close that saw March soybeans losing nearly 16 cents. Neither the USDA’s Outlook Forum numbers nor today’s export sales report were friendly. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.

  • This morning’s Outlook Forum numbers showed expected planted soybean acres for 24/25 increased as expected from 83.6 ma to 87.5 ma. With this increase in expected planted acres and using the higher trendline yield of 52.0 bpa, ending soybean stocks are estimated higher at 435 mb.

  • For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. Export sales were on the lower end of expectations and sales are now 19% behind a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 53.4 mb were well above the 20.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Spain.

  • The NOPA crush report for January showed 185.8 mb of soybeans crushed, which was below the average trade guess of 189.9 mb but was still a record large number for January. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.507 billion pounds compared to estimates of 1.409 billion.

  • Argentinian weather is expected to improve further over the next week, and Brazil is forecast to continue receiving scattered showers as well. Argentinian soy production has been estimated slightly higher by Refinitiv Commodities Research to 51.9 mmt which is up 1% from a previous update.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex closed in the red with the USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers, and an upward revision to the Russian wheat crop by SovEcon adding to the negativity.

  • This morning’s USDA’s Ag Outlook numbers for wheat showed estimates of planted wheat acres falling to 47.0 million acres in 24/25 from 49.6 ma last year, and using a trendline yield of 49.2 bpa, estimated wheat ending stocks for 24/25 came out to 769 mb. This compares to the average trade guess of 717 mb and 23/24 ending stocks of 658 mb.

  • In addition to the USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers, the USDA released weekly export sales as of February 8. For the 23/24 marketing year, the USDA reported new sales totaling 12.8 mb (349k mt) which brings total commitments for the 23/24 marketing year to 646.8 mb, a 7% increase over last year. The USDA also reported 1.8 mb in new sales for 24/25.

  • Consulting firm SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2024 wheat crop by 1.4 mmt to 93.6 mmt due to good growing weather in most of the regions. This represents a 400,000 mt increase from last year. This news added yet another layer of bearishness to the already weak wheat markets since weak Russian prices have been a major hurdle for US prices and exports for some time.

  • France’s 23/24 soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5m tons which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44 and represents the highest total since the 2018/19 season. The country’s soft wheat exports are currently estimated at 16.7 mmt, near unchanged from last month.

  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought just over 115k mt of food-grade milling wheat in a tender from the US, Canada, and Australia that closed on Thursday. Bangladesh also issued an international tender to purchase 50k mt of milling wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The downside breakout from the 584 – 618 congestion pattern suggests that prices may attempt to test the next support level around 555. If the 555 can hold and prices turn back higher, upside resistance will again be found between 584 and 618. If not, the next major level of support remains near the September low of 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat broke through nearby downside support of 688 and may continue to drift lower to test the January low of 678 ¾. If the 678 ¾ area fails, the next major support level may come in around 669. Overhead, resistance remains between 710 and 720.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to drift lower, and with the failure of 669 support, the market is at risk of drifting further toward the next major support level around 595 unless a bullish catalyst enters the scene. Although, prices are trending lower. The market is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse from fresh bullish input. If that happens, the first level of resistance may come in around 680 – 690.

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