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3-28 End of Day: Corn Settles Higher as Stocks and Acreage Come in Below Expectations

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite decent weekly export sales, corn trade prior to today’s USDA March 1 Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions report was lackluster. However, upon the report’s release, which revealed stocks and acreage numbers below expectations, May corn rallied 21 ¼ cents before settling 6 cents off its high.

  • Soybeans settled mixed but well off their lows with support from higher corn and soybean oil. The USDA’s quarterly stocks and acreage estimates for soybeans were mostly neutral as they came in right in line with trade estimates and above last year’s numbers.

  • The USDA numbers for wheat overall were relatively neutral with total acres just below trade estimates, while March 1 stocks were 34 mb above the average trade guess. Support for both Chicago and KC wheat came from neighboring corn futures and higher Matif wheat which also saw a bullish reversal. Minneapolis likely saw pressure from increased spring wheat acres that came in above expectations and last year’s totals.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted strong double-digit gains after buyers stepped into the market with the USDA report that showed planting intentions and grain stocks were below market expectations. For the week, May corn finished 2 ¾ cents higher.

  • The strong price action on the session had May futures post its highest daily close since February 12.  With the May futures showing a strong technical close over their 50-day moving average for the first time since October, they could see additional short covering and rally next week. Early week price action will be key in determining follow-through trade from today’s strength.

  • The USDA projected corn planting intentions at 90.06 million acres for the upcoming market year. This was 1.7 million acres below expectations and the lowest in the past 2 years. The number of acres may have room to increase by the June Plantings report as 6.3 million acres of principal crop ground was removed from last year’s totals. The USDA is estimating all crop land to total 313.3 million acres, down from 319.6 million acres last year.

  • The USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report for corn showed a total of 8.347 billion bushels of supply, up 12.9% from last year. This total was 80 mb below market expectations as corn usage in the first quarter was stronger than expected. Of those grain stocks, 5.079 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 23% over last year. The large amount of on farm storage could be a limiting factor in corn prices as bushels move in the cash market.

  • Weekly export sales reported this morning remain supportive for corn prices. Last week, exporters made new sales of 47.5 mb (1.207 mmt) of corn. This was near the top end of expectations. Cumulative corn sales now reach 1.689 billion bushels, up 19% from last year.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 148,399 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day mixed with a slight loss in the front months and gains in the new crop. Futures rebounded from sharp losses earlier in the day prior to the release of the USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. The report was bullish for corn and relatively neutral for soybeans, but soybeans gained positive momentum from the gains in corn.

  • Today’s USDA report was very much in line overall with the average trade guesses but still showed more expected soybean acres than last year. The USDA said that 86.51 million acres of soybeans would be planted in 2024 which compares with 83.6 ma last year. US soybean stocks were called at 1.845 billion bushes and were within trade expectations but higher than last year’s 1.687 bb.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost just 1 cent, November soybeans lost 3/4 of a cent, May soybean meal lost $1.40 to $337.70, and May soybean oil gained 0.31 cents. Crush margins have declined recently but remain profitable enough to keep processors buying cash soybeans. The domestic demand for soybeans is needed as export sales have been very slow.

  • With significant discrepancies between CONAB’s and the USDA’s estimates for Brazilian soybean production, Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has now increased their estimates to 156.5 mmt citing an expansion of estimated planted area. This estimate is much closer to the USDA’s guess of 157 mmt and brings doubts to CONAB’s guess of 149 mmt.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the March 14 high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher in both Chicago and KC contracts, while posting small losses for Minneapolis. A lower acreage number than anticipated helped winter wheat to rally, while higher spring wheat acreage weighed on Minneapolis futures. The sharp rise in corn futures and a higher close for Matif wheat, which reversed from the recent downtrend, also added support.

  • In today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report, total wheat acreage was reported at 47.5 million acres, slightly below the trade estimate of 47.7 million acres and a 3% decrease from last year’s 49.6 million acres. Notably, winter wheat acreage declined to 34.1 million acres, down 7% from 36.7 million acres the previous year. However, spring wheat acreage reached 11.3 million acres, exceeding both the trade estimate of 10.9 million acres and last year’s 11.2 million acres.

  • Quarterly wheat stocks at 1.087 bb were above the average trade guess of 1.053 bb, and above last year’s 941 mb by 16%. When broken down, on farm stocks were estimated to be 271.9 mb, with off farm stocks at 815.5 mb.

  • Today the USDA also released weekly export sales. The USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24, along with an increase of 7.8 mb for 24/25. However, last week’s shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 18.2 mb needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 710 mb. So far, wheat sales commitments total 688 mb, up 4% from last year.

  • In other news, the European Commission estimated that EU soft wheat production will decline 4% year-on-year to 120.8 mmt from 125.6 mmt, previously. Wet weather in the fall caused issues for planting, and France has crop conditions well below last year. And while exports are expected to have little change around 31 mmt, stocks may decline from 19.9 to 12.1 mmt.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 26, approximately 17% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought, along with 25% of the spring wheat area. For winter wheat, this is an increase from 12% the week prior, while spring wheat declined from 30% a week ago.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: There remains considerable resistance in the area between the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. If prices can close above 605 ¼, they could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Otherwise, if they retreat back below initial support of 575, prices could potentially test the 551 ½ March low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

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3-27 End of Day: Corn and Beans Continue Their Slide Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After initial two-sided trading, late-day technical selling emerged, exacerbating losses, which led to the corn market’s fourth consecutive lower close. The negativity was further fueled by spillover weakness from the soybean complex and anticipation of tomorrow’s USDA report.

  • May soybeans closed near the lower end of a tight 8 ½ cent range, bound by overhead trendline resistance and support just below the market where the 20 and 50-day moving averages converge around 1190. Weakness in soybean oil added pressure to soybeans and Board crush margins, which lost 3 ½ cents in the May contracts.

  • A 2% drop in Malaysian palm oil and lower Chinese soybean oil pressured the bean oil market toward a 0.75 cent loss as it continues to consolidate following its recent runup. Soybean meal closed with a minor $0.80 loss as it continues to trade between its 20 and 50-day moving averages, as lower Brazilian meal export premiums remain an obstacle for US meal demand and any rally potential.

  • The wheat complex closed mostly higher, led by strong performances in Chicago and Minneapolis, while Kansas City futures settled mixed, with gains in the front months outpacing the deferred ones. The complex as a whole saw steady gains throughout the day bouncing back from overnight lows. The rally came as traders likely square positions for tomorrow’s USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks report, with little other bullish news to trade.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, GRACE-based root zone drought indicators for the US and SA, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NASA-GRACE scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow 10-cent trading range, fluctuating between 435 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, particularly if the March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports reveal bearish surprises, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw additional long liquidation before the USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report on Thursday. May futures settled their lowest price level in three weeks.

  • The correction in the corn market is tied to the market correcting from its recent over-bought technical condition as a product of the latest rally in corn.

  • For Thursday’s USDA report, expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million. This would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year. Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales are trending ahead of pace and supporting corn prices. Expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.3 mmt for old crop corn. Last week, export sales totaled 1.185 mmt.

  • Despite the futures market weakness, cash corn basis has remained firmer as end users are “bidding up” looking for supplies in some markets.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

May soybeans have rallied nearly 100 cents from the February 29 low to the March 21 high. Despite the magnitude of this current rally, the Managed Money camp has hardly covered any of their 171,999 record net short position from the week ending March 5. As of the latest week, their net short position was still at 148,339 contracts. Like corn, the continuation of this recent uptrend could rest upon what comes from the USDA in the upcoming March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. If bearish, soybean prices could be at risk of retesting the recent lows going into April/May. However, if the reports are bullish, a squeeze could be put on Managed Money, adding more fuel to the upside price recovery.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished lower for a second consecutive day, but the May contract has managed to hold above the 50-day moving average. Soybean oil lost over 2.5% and was pressured by a decline in palm oil prices while soybean meal closed only slightly lower.

  • Some of the weakness in soybeans is likely due to anticipation of tomorrow’s Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report where soybean acres are expected to increase. Soybean acres are estimated to come in at 85.35 million which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb last year.

  • With significant discrepancies between CONAB’s and the USDA’s estimates for Brazilian soybean production, Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult has now increased their estimates to 156.5 mmt citing an expansion of estimated planted area. This estimate is much closer to the USDA’s guess of 157 mmt and brings doubts to CONAB’s guess of 146 mmt.

  • While export demand has been weak due to cheaper Brazilian soybeans, domestic demand has been firm. Cash crush margins in Illinois, have slipped around 21 cents since last week but remain profitable enough to keep processors purchasing cash beans.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the March 14 high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices closed mostly higher, particularly in Chicago and Minneapolis futures, although Kansas City futures settled mixed. These gains occurred in the absence of significant bullish news and despite pressure from the US Dollar Index, which remained near its recent high above the 104 level. Paris milling wheat also closed mixed, with the May contract marking its third consecutive session lower, while September and December futures experienced slight gains.

  • The average pre-report estimate for all wheat acreage on tomorrow’s USDA report stands at 47.7 million acres, marking a decline from last year’s 49.6 million acres. Additionally, quarterly grain stocks are expected to reach 1.053 billion bushels compared to 941 million bushels a year ago. Despite the projected decrease in acreage compared to last year, it remains possible that trendline yields and weak demand could still result in a higher carryout number for the 24/25 season.

  • March wheat exports out of Russia could hit a record 5 mmt. While their FOB export values have increased to $206/mt, they remain well below the $225/mt US SRW wheat values, and may limit upside movement for US wheat.

  • As of March 23, the European Commission reported that EU soft wheat exports for the season, which began on July 1, amounted to 22.8 million metric tons (mmt). This reflects a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s figure of 23.2 mmt. Leading the list of importers was Morocco, with 3.32 mmt, followed by Nigeria and Algeria.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. With substantial support near 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, prices could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-26 End of Day: Markets Settle Lower as Traders Prepare for Thursday’s USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Amid weakness spreading from neighboring markets, May corn futures struggled to trade within a half-cent of yesterday’s high before encountering overhead resistance. Ultimately, they breached both the 20 and 50-day moving averages, settling at their lowest level since March 6th.

  • While still holding support near the 50-day moving average, May soybeans saw choppy trade in a tight 10 ¼-cent range with trendline resistance just overhead as traders continued to square positions ahead of Thursday’s USDA report.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today, contributing to the decline in soybeans. Soybean oil held at the 100-day moving average and continues to see support from palm oil on talk of lower Indonesian exports and higher demand from India and China, while the high US crush pace and competition from Argentina add upward resistance to meal prices.

  • All three classes of wheat closed lower on the day with bear spreading noted as the front months saw more selling pressure than the deferreds. Weakness likely stemmed from beneficial moisture moving across much of the central US which should help to improve wheat conditions that are already better than last year.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1 and 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26th to the high on March 12th, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow 10-cent trading range, fluctuating between 435 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, particularly if the March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports reveal bearish surprises, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending making a sale if Dec ’25 corn closes that gap and trades toward 510.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a tough day in corn markets as prices broke to the bottom of the most recent trading range, and more importantly below support of nearby moving averages. The weak price action and technical picture may have the corn market set up for further selling pressure going into Wednesday’s session.

  • The overall tone in grain markets was weak, and double-digit losses in the wheat market helped pressure corn futures. May futures posted its lowest close since March 6.

  • A strong weather system moved across the Corn Belt bringing beneficial moisture to areas that were lacking. While the rain and snow won’t relieve the overall dry conditions, improvement is likely with spring planting a few weeks away.

  • The grain markets are looking toward Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report. Expectations are for 2024 corn acres to be near 91.78 million acres of corn. While this would be down from the 94.64 million acres planted last year, early warm temperatures this spring/late winter have the market concerned that the anticipated corn acres could be higher than expected.

  • Estimated grain stocks for Thursday’s report are expected to reach 8.427 billion bushels, up 14% from last year and a 5-year high for March 1.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

May soybeans have rallied nearly 100 cents from the February 29th low to the March 21st high. Despite the magnitude of this current rally, the Managed Money camp has hardly covered any of their 171,999 record net short position from the week ending March 5th. As of the latest week, their net short position was still at 148,339 contracts. Like corn, the continuation of this recent uptrend could rest upon what comes from the USDA in the upcoming March Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. If bearish, soybean prices could be at risk of retesting the recent lows going into April/May. However, if the reports are bullish, a squeeze could be put on Managed Money, adding more fuel to the upside price recovery.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended lower today wiping out some of yesterday’s gains but remaining above the 50-day moving average. Rain in the eastern part of the Corn Belt has improved soil moisture levels ahead of planting, and the anticipation of the Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report showing higher soybean acres has pressed futures lower.

  • Palm oil has rallied significantly over the past few weeks but has begun to slide, which in turn has pressured soybean oil. Bean oil is now well off its lows and currently rangebound and sitting just below the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal ended lower today and will likely face further pressure when the Argentine harvest is complete, and the country has more meal to export.

  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is now called at 70% complete with the key growing state of Mato Grosso reportedly finished. Brazil’s second (safrinha) crop corn plantings are also completed, and there is a slight concern for hot and dry weather. Argentina received too much rain over the past two weeks which could have negatively impacted total production.

  • On Thursday, the USDA will release its US Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acres report. Soybean acres are estimated at 85.35 million acres which would be 2 million fewer than were planted last year if realized. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.828 billion bushels which would compare with 1.687 bb a year ago.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat closed lower across the board with bear spreading noted, primarily in Chicago futures, where the front months settled weaker than the deferreds. This could be attributed to moisture moving across much of the central US, potentially enhancing already favorable wheat conditions that surpass last year’s levels. Interestingly, the market appeared unfazed by concerns of crop damage in southern states, despite projections of single-digit temperatures extending as far south as the Texas panhandle. 

  • Yesterday after hitting the highest level since early February, Paris milling wheat futures reversed course to a lower close. Today they finished the session in the red again, which offered weakness to the US market. And while Russian FOB values have risen about $10 over the past two weeks, they remain very cheap compared to other origins – this may explain some of the weakness.

  • In Thursday’s USDA report, the trade is looking for 47.7 million wheat acres. This would be down from 49.6 ma last year, but stocks are also expected to increase to 1.053 bb versus 941 mb last year. If realized, that would be the highest March 1 wheat stocks total in three years.

  • The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit forecasts an increase in the EU’s soft wheat yields from 5.82 to 5.91 tonnes per hectare, marking a 2% year-over-year rise. While acknowledging that the crop’s condition is mediocre in many European regions, they anticipate yields coming in above the five-year average.

  • Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Minister, Aidarbek Saparov, anticipates a grain harvest of 13-14 million metric tons (mmt) this year. Wheat plantings are projected to cover a total of 13.3 million hectares, reflecting a 3% decrease from 2023. Notably, last year’s grain production amounted to 16.4 mmt, suggesting that this reduction may necessitate increased imports in the future

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. With substantial support near 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, prices could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 641 low with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-25 End of Day: Soybean Oil Supports Beans; While Corn and Wheat Settle Near Unchanged

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market continues to drift sideways ahead of Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks report. Today, May corn saw a quiet 4 ¼ cent range, while weekly corn export intentions came in as expected, and ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s export forecast.

  • May soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight session before taking off after this morning’s open with support coming from both soybean oil and meal. The 20-day moving average held for all three legs of the soybean complex which supported technical buying off the lows. Malaysian palm oil lent extra support to soybean oil, which saw the largest gains in the complex at 1.38 cents (2.90%.)

  • All three classes of wheat traded both sides of unchanged before settling mixed on the day and well off the day’s highs. Early support came from the forecast of cold weather that could hit the HRW crop as far south as Kansas and Oklahoma, with additional support from the escalation of war and restrictions on a major Russian wheat exporter.

  • To see the updated US 7-day observed precipitation, 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market is still looking for direction as daily trade remains quiet with two-sided trade inside a narrow trading range. May corn moved 4 ¼ cents from high to low during the session. Prices still seem tied to the 440-price level.

  • Managed funds have been moving out of their net short position in the corn market during this recent price rally. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report released on Friday showed that funds were still net short 242,988 contracts, reduced by 12,940 contracts from the previous week. Funds are still holding a historically large net short position given the current fundamental market scenario.

  • Weekly corn export inspections for corn totaled 48.3 mb (1.228 mmt) last week. Total inspections for 23/24 are at 961 mb, up 34% over last year. The USDA is targeting a 26% rise in US corn exports.

  •  A strong weather system is moving through the western and northern Corn Belt, providing a mixture of snow and rain to areas in need. The precipitation should help build some soil moisture levels in those areas to help promote spring planting.

  • The grain markets may stay choppy going into Thursday’s USDA Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks report. With the market holding short positions, additional position squaring could bring some volatility as the market moves closer to Thursday’s report.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 12,940 contracts between March 13 – 19 , bringing their total position to a net short 242,988 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week despite weakness in both corn and wheat. Prices were lower overnight but rallied into the close, closing just off the high of the day and just below yesterday’s high. Main support came from higher soybean oil which was helped by Malaysian palm oil, while soybean meal closed higher but not by as much.

  • In Brazil, the soybean harvest is nearly complete with key growing state Mato Grosso finished and the rest of the country at 70% done. The USDA attaché in Brazil has lowered its estimates for Brazilian production in 23/24 to 152.6 mmt from 157.5 mmt. This change will likely be included in the USDA’s next WASDE report.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 6,798 contracts of their net short position reducing it to 148,399 contracts. Similar to corn, the short covering hasn’t had a very bullish effect on prices as farmer selling has ramped up to take advantage of any rallies.

  • Last Friday, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its estimates for the 23/24 corn crop but kept soybean production unchanged at 52.5 mmt. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, so any issues in the growing season could be friendly to meal.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,798 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 148,399 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mostly higher close while still closing off session highs. Early support came from a lower US Dollar Index, as well as the forecast of a cold snap this week that could hit as far south as Kansas and Oklahoma. This is raising concern that there will be some damage to the HRW crop as it exits dormancy.

  • Russian attacks on Odesa power plants gave wheat a boost today, with concern that port operations would be disrupted. Additionally, the second largest Russian wheat exporter was forced to keep vessels in port for not obtaining the necessary phytosanitary permits.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were on the softer side at 11.6 mb and brought total 23/24 export inspections to 521 mb. That is down 15% from last year and inspections and behind the USDA’s estimated pace. 

  • According to a Bloomberg survey, the average pre-report estimate for wheat acreage in this week’s USDA report is 47.3 million, which compares to 49.6 ma last year. Additionally, quarterly wheat stocks are projected to be up 11.3% at 1.05 bb which compares to 941 mb last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have rallied 50% back toward the high of that range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,700 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 80,570 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to close above the 50-day moving average (dma) suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low if initial support near 575 is broken. However, if prices do manage to close above the 50 dma and the March 10 high of 605 ¼, there’s a possibility of a rally towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Although with substantial support around 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,310 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 37,857 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,032 contracts between March 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 22,733 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-22 End of Day: Beans End Up Lower on the Week as Corn and Wheat Stage Recoveries

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Another announced corn sale to Mexico and a solid recovery in wheat wasn’t enough for the corn market to overcome the weakness in the soybean pit. May corn futures struggle to stray from the 440 level as they close the week in a relatively tight consolidation range.

  • Yesterday’s short covering in the soybean market was met with both technical and farmer selling, and today, the technical selling intensified once prices dropped below yesterday’s lows. Weakness from soybean meal and oil contributed to the declines.

  • Soybean meal and oil both ended the day in the red today, with the lingering effects of large February crush supplies looming, along with lower palm oil and weakening renewable diesel margins weighing on bean oil. May Board crush margins also came under pressure, losing 4 ¾ cents.

  • The wheat complex had a wild ride which tested the lows of this week’s consolidation ranges for all three classes before buyers emerged. Technical buying and higher Matif wheat futures helped all three classes closed near the top end, with Chicago and KC posting 20-cent ranges, while Minneapolis saw a 13-cent range.  

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite an announced corn sale and strength in the wheat market, the selling pressure in the soybean market limited upside potential in the corn futures on Friday. The May contract finished softer, still tied to the 440 level on the charts. For the week, May futures did finish 2 ½ cents higher.

  • May corn futures remain in a tight overall trading range, as they continue to consolidate. Since March 7th, May corn futures have been tied to the 440 price level with closes ranging from as high as 441 ¾ to a low of 433 during that time frame.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale on corn to Mexico. Mexico continues to be a strong buyer of US corn, purchasing another 10.4 mb (263,000 mt), split with 173,000 mt of old crop and 90,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • The Buenos Aires Gran exchange lowered their projection for the Argentina corn crop to 54 mmt, down 2.5 mmt from their last forecast. The reduction was due to dry weather in February and the impact of plant pathogens. Even with the reduction, this will be the largest projected corn crop in Argentina since 2018-19.

  • The CFTC will release the next Commitment of Traders report this afternoon. Managed money has been exiting their overall short position in recent weeks with the recent price strength. Last week, managed funds held a net short position of 255,982 contracts, up nearly 84,000 contracts for the low three weeks ago.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower to finish out the week after showing promise earlier on by rallying above the 50-day moving average. Poor export sales and the ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest has made sustaining rallies difficult. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 5 ¾ cents, November soybeans lost 3 ¾ cents, May soybean meal gained $4.40, and May soybean oil lost 1.78 cents. Funds were likely exiting some of their short position this week, but the short covering was met by increased farmer selling.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be 70% complete by this weekend and some work could be delayed due to rain. In Argentina, soybean crop ratings came in with 31% rated good to excellent and 16% rated poor to very poor. Argentinian crop conditions could deteriorate further if the country continues to receive too much rain.

  • Yesterday afternoon, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its estimates for the 23/24 corn crop but kept soybean production unchanged at 52.5 mmt. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, so any issues in the growing season could be friendly to meal.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat pushed higher again today with a positive close for all three US classes. Support came from Paris milling wheat futures which rallied sharply and finished near session highs, gaining 5.75 to 7.50 Euros per metric ton. The higher close for US wheat also came despite the US Dollar rising again today to the highest level since mid-February.

  • May Chicago wheat broke through technical resistance around the 21-day moving average, which may allow some room to run before the next level of resistance around the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Some of today’s firmness in wheat may also be tied to the EU imposing tariffs on Russian grain imports.

  • Egypt has confirmed that future purchases of wheat will be through tenders, and no longer through private negotiations. The use of private deals began a few years ago, likely due to supply disruptions caused by the Ukraine war. It is unclear if this change is a temporary measure in which they will return to private transactions again, or if this is a permanent.

  • According to the USDA, as of March 19, an estimated 12% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought. This represents a 2% improvement from 14% the week prior. As for spring wheat, the area in drought remained steady at an estimated 30% for the same timeframe.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 SRW wheat crop. In mid-February, the July ’25 Chicago wheat contract broke through the bottom of the long standing 640 – 685 trading range and traded down to the 597 ½low. Prices have now rallied 50% back toward the high of the range. While a lot of time remains in which many unforeseen circumstances can unfold to move prices even higher, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these historically good prices, to make an early sale and begin marketing your 2025 SRW crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern bound by 556 on the topside, and 523 ½ on the bottom. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to surpass the 50-day moving average suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low. However, if prices reverse course and manage to close above the 50-day moving average, there’s a possibility of a rally towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Although there seems to be substantial support around 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-21 End of Day: Markets Settle in the Green Across the Board but Off Their Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from the soybean complex and concerns about too much rain in Argentina helped support the corn market that saw both sides of unchanged and closed with small gains across the board.

  • Soybeans started off strong in the overnight session with support coming from soybean meal on talk of damage to the Argentine soy crop from recent heavy rains. Although, May soybeans ultimately retreated from the 1226 ¾ high on increased US and Brazilian farmer selling.

  • Soybean oil ended lower on the day, adding upward resistance to soybeans as it came under pressure from lower Malaysian palm oil, crude oil, and heating oil following early strength on talk of potential losses to the Argentine soybean crop.

  • Despite poor weekly export sales and rising estimates of Russia’s wheat crop by SovEcon, all three wheat classes were able to rally off their respective lows and settle higher on the day.

  • Today, the US Dollar posted a turnaround from yesterday’s losses, which were in response to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. This reversal may have added some upside resistance to the grain markets.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and the Seasonal US temperature and precipitation outlooks, courtesy of the NDMC, NWS, CPC and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buying strength in the grain markets supported corn futures in Thursday’s session. Strong overnight strength pushed May futures to their highest levels in over a month, but prices faded and stayed tagged near the 440 level.

  • Weekly export sales for corn remain supportive. The USDA reported new sales last week of 46.7 mb (1.185 mmt), which were within expectations. Total corn sales commitments now total 1.642 billion bushels, trending 19% higher than last year.

  • South American weather is non-threatening overall. Areas of Brazil have received rainfall for the second (safrinha) crop corn as planting finishes. There are regional reports of stress due to heat, but the weather trend still looks favorable. Argentina weather is seeing an overall drier outlook as the crop nears completion.

  • The recent price strength reflects managed money’s lifting of short positions before the beginning of the US growing season. The market will watch early season weather and determine the next direction for corn prices.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to refrain from making further sales until the market rebounds towards the 1300 level, which represents a modest 30% retracement from the 2022 high.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ultimately ended the day higher but were volatile throughout the day with overnight trade seeing May futures up as much as 18 cents and down as much as 5 cents this afternoon. Soybean meal ended higher with support from Argentina’s excess of rain, while soybean oil was lower.

  • Soybeans have been making technical rallies after surpassing the 50-day moving average with likely short covering taking place by the funds. However, when prices rallied overnight, it spurred increased farmer selling in the US and Brazil, which added downward pressure to prices.

  • Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 18.2 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was within the range of trade expectations. Soybean sales commitments are down 19% from a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 28.4 mb were above the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.

  • South American weather has been wet overall and may cause harvest delays in Brazil until next week. Argentina is also reportedly too wet which could cause some damage to their soy crop. Argentina is the number one exporter of soybean meal, so this is likely the reason for the recent rally.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the previous high of 1217 ½, they closed higher on the day and could still rally further. If downside support near 1175 continues to hold and prices close above 1226 ¾, the market could continue and test the January high of 1247 ½. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheats managed to close marginally higher, despite a two-sided trade and some negative influences.

  • SovEcon is said to have increased their Russian 24/25 wheat production estimate by 1.2 mmt to 94 mmt, versus 92.8 mmt for the 23/24 season, and the USDA’s estimate of 91.5 mmt. This is also well above the five-year average of 86.7 mmt.

  • To add to negativity, the US Dollar Index surged today, hovering near recent highs above 104, and while Paris milling wheat futures closed marginally higher today, they ran into resistance around the 40 and 50-day moving averages. These combined factors may have limited the upside movement of US futures today.

  • The USDA reported a decrease of 4.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 10.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 14.5 mb were below the pace of 17.9 mb needed per week to reach the USDA’s goal of 710 mb of 23/24 wheat exports.

  • In the face of recent cancellations, China may have record grain imports for 2024. Their Australian wheat imports from January and February are nearly four times what they were a year ago. China is the world’s largest wheat buyer and is also a major importer of ag goods, reportedly spending a total of $234 billion on imports last year.

  • According to Coceral, the European grain harvest, including both the EU and the UK, is projected at 295.5 mmt. That is down 1 mmt from their December estimate of 296.5 mmt, but would still be above the 292.4 mmt from the 2023 harvest. The main reason cited for the projected decline is wet weather that delayed planting.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. The strategy for the 2025 crop year remains to hold off on making any sales. Though if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of those better prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern bound by 556 on the topside, and 523 ½ on the bottom. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The inability of the market to surpass the 50-day moving average suggests considerable resistance in this area, potentially leading to a test of support near the 551 ½ low. However, if prices reverse course and manage to close above the 50-day moving average, there’s a possibility of a rally towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Although there seems to be substantial support around 551 ½, a breach below this level could lead to a test of 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

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3-20 End of Day: Soybeans Sharp Rally Supports Corn, as Wheat Closes off its Lows

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Strength in soybeans and a bump in corn usage for ethanol production lent support to corn futures, which also came under pressure from the lower wheat market to close near unchanged in a tight 4-cent range.

  • A flash sale of 120,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year gave an extra boost to the soybean market, which closed above the 50-day moving average for the first time since December. Additional support came from both products which posted steady rallies to close sharply higher and add 4 ½ cents to May Board crush margins.

  • Early weakness across the wheat complex gave way to bargain hunting which rallied all three wheat classes off midday lows. Although the complex closed lower on the day, Minneapolis and KC were the strongest performers settling near the top end of their trading ranges, while Chicago closed mid-range but still well off its lows.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and Northern Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NASA-Grace, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures stayed in consolidative trade with a narrow 4 cent trading range. The corn market seemed stuck between the selling pressure in the wheat market and the strength in the soybean market during the session. The May contract is still struggling with 440 overhead resistance, which has been holding the market in check.

  • Weather forecasts for the US Corn Belt have turned wetter with combinations of rain or snow falling over the central Corn Belt. If realized, this precipitation could provide beneficial moisture to areas in need. This could help build a good base for the planting of the 24/25 corn crop in the US.

  • Ethanol production last week averaged 1.046 million barrels a day. This was up 2.1% over the previous week and 4.9% over last year. Corn usage for the week was estimated at 103.82 mb, and is still ahead of the pace projected by the USDA.

  • Weekly export sales will be reported on Thursday morning. Corn sales have been supportive, and expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.4 mmt for last week. The previous week saw new sales of 1.283 mmt.

  • Brazilian weather looks suitable overall for crop development of the second (safrinha) crop corn as planting finishes. There are regional reports on stress due to heat, but the weather trend still looks favorable.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to hold off on making additional sales until prices post a modest 30% retracement back toward the 2022 high of 1759.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans rallied into the end of the day for a sharp gain driven by technical buying, Argentinian weather that may be too wet, a flash sale that was reported this morning, and higher soybean meal and soybean oil.

  • May soybeans closed above the 12-dollar mark for the first time since the beginning of February, and short covering likely kicked in once soybeans rallied above the 50-day moving average at 1195. The funds have slowly unwound a portion of their net short position over the past few weeks and no longer hold a record short position.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. Overall, soybean sales have been sluggish as Brazil harvests their soy crop and maintains the competitive advantage in export sales.

  • In South America, the weather has been good overall with abundant rain, but Argentina may be receiving too much rain which could be supporting soybean meal prices. Today’s rally could spark a large round of farmer selling in South America tomorrow, which could cause prices to sell off.

Above: The bearish reversal on March 14 indicates potential for a market reversal to the downside. For now, initial support near 1175 appears to be holding and the close above the 50-day moving average could indicate a shift in sentiment, with a potential test of the recent high at 1217 ½ before testing the January high of 1247 ½. If prices turn back and close below 1175, they may retreat further toward 1130 – 1140 support.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite the strong close for soybeans, it did not do much to pull wheat higher. All three US wheat classes posted losses with Chicago leading the way down. Part of the weakness stemmed from a lower close for Matif futures, a general lack of friendly news, as well as a continued higher trend in the US Dollar Index.

  • Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat, and today it was reported that Romania had the lowest offer at $232.50/mt FOB. Results of that tender are expected this afternoon.

  • In other news, it was reported that Egypt will allot $2.66 billion for bread subsidies as part of the 24/25 budget. These subsidies provide reduced prices of bread and other staple foods to over half of their population. Egypt is a major wheat importer so this may provide some support to the market if they import more wheat.

  • According to Ukraine’s Agricultural Ministry, winter crops as of March 15 are mostly satisfactory to good. Ukraine also planted a total of 4.4 million hectares of winter wheat, which accounts for 95% of their total wheat production.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. The strategy for the 2025 crop year remains to hold off on making any sales. Though if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of those better prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern bound by 556 on the topside, and 523 ½ on the bottom. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The failure of the market to advance above the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the area, and it may test support near the 551 ½ low. Should prices turn around and close above the 50-day moving average, they could still make a run toward the 610 to 640 congestion area. While there appears to be significant support around 551 ½, if prices fall below there, they could test 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-19 End of Day: Wheat Helps Boost Corn, While Beans Close Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With little fresh news to move the market, corn futures continued to consolidate as they settled near the top end of a rather tight 5-cent range, driven mostly by another strong day in wheat.

  • Soybeans settled mixed with new crop gaining on old crop as rallies continue to get capped by overhead resistance with cheaper export premiums out of Brazil and anticipation of beneficial Midwest rain later this week and next.

  • Soybean meal settled higher on the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Meal’s midday surge lent strength to soybeans that was ultimately overcome by weakness in soybean oil, which ultimately closed lower after being unable to hold above its 100-day moving average.

  • To satisfy European farmers, the EU is expected to levy tariffs on cereal grain imported from Russia and Belarus. The report helped give a boost to the wheat complex which followed through on yesterday’s firm trade and closed higher across all three classes for the second day in a row.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, and the Grace-based root zone drought indicators for the US and South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and NASA-Grace, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market saw some buying strength on Tuesday as prices posted moderate gains on the session. With overall news relatively quiet, a second day of strength in the wheat market and short covering helped support corn futures but failed to push through the 440 price level.

  • The corn export market is supportive of prices as US corn is fairly priced versus global competition, and that has been reflected in multiple weeks of good export sales and shipments. The export sale and shipment pace is currently running ahead of the USDA target. With an overall heavy US supply picture, corn futures may be limited in rally potential so as not to price US corn out of the export market.

  • The national average corn basis has improved again this past week. On Monday, the national basis was 26.4 cents under the May futures, reflecting limited participation of cash sellers at these price levels.

  • Brazilian weather looks suitable overall for crop development of the second (safrinha) crop corn as planting finishes. There are regional reports on stress due to heat, but the weather trend still looks favorable.

  • Chinese corn imports for January and February were approximately 6.190 mmt, up 165 year-over-year.  US to China corn shipments in this window have been light, reflecting the impact of the strong Brazil corn export program this winter.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above 445, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to hold off on making additional sales until prices post a modest 30% retracement back toward the 2022 high of 1759.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed with slight losses in the front months and a slight gain for new crop in quiet, range-bound trade. Soybean meal ended the day higher, but soybean oil was pulled lower by palm oil which may have seen some profit taking from its recent rally.

  • Brazil’s harvest is over 63% complete with the main growing state of Mato Grosso 96% complete. Weather has been conducive to harvest, but production estimates are very varied. In Argentina, weather has been favorable and this morning, Dr. Cordonnier raised his estimate of Argentine production by 1 mmt to 51 mmt.

  • In Indonesia, palm oil exports have fallen by 25.4% month over month to 1.59m tonnes from 2.13m tonnes in January. This has caused a rally in palm oil futures which has mostly supported soybean oil over the past week, although prices have begun to slip.

  • Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce whether they are cutting interest rates or holding off again. So far, with the US dollar higher, traders may be pricing in that they will not reduce rates. Often, when the dollar rallies, it can pressure commodity prices.

Above: Following the brief run-up off the recent low, soybeans posted a bearish reversal on March 14, indicating a potential market reversal to the downside. Initial support down below may be found near 1175, and again between 1130 and 1140. If the market closes above the 50-day ma and continues higher, it may find resistance near the recent 1217 ½ high before testing the January high of 1247 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was another up day for all three US wheat classes. Paris milling wheat futures again lent support with a higher close for the third consecutive session. Today’s move upward is also despite a higher trend in the US Dollar Index, and winter wheat conditions improving in three of the four reporting states. The only decline was in Oklahoma, with a 4% drop to 61% good to excellent.

  • As mentioned yesterday, there is more talk that the EU is preparing to issue sanctions against Russia. Specifically, they may impose tariffs on grain imports. A duty of 95 euros per mt would be set in place for Russian (and Belarusian) cereal grains; a 50% tariff would be added to oil seeds and products. Furthermore, the Polish prime minister has called for an outright EU ban on imports of Russian ag goods.

  • In southern Brazil, 2023 wheat production was down 35.9% from the previous year. And now, due to depressed prices, the planted area for 2024 may decrease. However, if production is average, it will lead to greater supply than a year ago. CONAB is projecting a 6% decrease in planted areas but a production increase of 18.4% from 2023 at 9.59 mmt.

  • According to the Iraqi Ministry of Commerce, their country has achieved self-sufficiency with 2 mmt of wheat in reserves. They are said to use about 4.5 – 5.0 mmt of wheat per year. In other words, they will not need to import wheat to maintain their stocks for seven months; they are also anticipating a large upcoming crop. Additionally, they have been able to use groundwater to irrigate and grow large crops in recent years, in the face of the country’s worst drought on record.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. The strategy for the 2025 crop year remains to hold off on making any sales. Though if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of those better prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern bound by 556 on the topside, and 523 ½ on the bottom. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, the next level of major support may come in around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The failure of the market to advance above the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the area, and it may test support near the 551 ½ low. Should prices turn around and close above the 50-day moving average, they could still make a run toward the 610 to 640 congestion area. While there appears to be significant support around 551 ½, if prices fall below there, they could test 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-18 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed to Start the Week; Wheat Higher, Beans Lower, Corn Near Unchanged

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market gave up overnight strength shortly after the opening of the day session despite solid export inspections totaling 49 mb. Improved South American forecasts and increased Brazilian farmer selling limited the upside of a choppy trading day that saw both sides of unchanged.

  • The brisk harvest pace in Brazil with farmer selling, and weakness from both soybean meal and oil contributed to the pressure in the soybean market as it continues to consolidate from last week’s rally.

  • Following last week’s impressive run up on short covering, soybean oil saw a market reversal with sharp losses that, along with weaker soybean meal, added pressure to soybeans. Last Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds covered 29k of their net short soybean oil positions as of March 12, while also adding 3,300 contracts to their net short meal position.  

  • Reports of more drone attacks and increased tension between Russia and Ukraine helped give legs to the wheat complex that has been short on any war premium and near its lows. Additional support came from higher Matif wheat and potential short covering.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast (also percent of normal) for Brazil, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Another quiet day overall in the corn market as corn prices were trapped between a weak soybean market and buying strength in the wheat markets. May futures had a tight 5 ½ cent trading range on the session as prices continue to consolidate.

  • Weekly corn inspections toted 48.8 mb in another good week. Total corn inspections now total 909 mb, up 31% from last year. Current US corn export inspections are above the USDA’s estimated pace, which is forecasting a 26% rise over last year.

  • Strong selling in the Brazilian corn futures market limited gains in US corn prices. Brazilian May corn futures contract was 2.5% lower on the session with improved rain chances in the near-term forecasts.

  • Strong planting pace for the second crop Brazil corn crop is a limiting factor with the prospects of a longer growing season. AgRural estimated that 97% of the Brazil’s 2nd (safrinha) corn crop is planted, up from 93% last week and 91% from last year. Weather will remain a strong focus of the market over the next couple months as the crop develops.

  • Managed hedge funds continue to lighten up on their short position in the corn market. It was still historically large overall, but funds exited 40,867 net short contracts on last week’s Commitment of Traders’ report.  As of Tuesday, March 12, funds are still holding a net short position of 255,982 contracts.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above it, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 40,867 contracts between March 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 255,928 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to hold off on making additional sales until prices post a modest 30% retracement back toward the 2022 high of 1759.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • To kick off the week, soybeans closed firmly in the red, brought lower by both soybean meal and oil along with an uptick in Brazilian farmer selling. Export inspections were in line with expectations but did nothing to support futures.

  • Export inspections today came in at 25.2 mb for the week ending Thursday, March 14. This was within analysts’ expectations and were above the 15 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s forecast. Total inspections for 23/24 are at 1,314 mb, which is down 19% from last year.

  • South American weather is expected to improve with central Brazil already receiving beneficial rains in Mato Grosso with more rains forecast later in the week for southern Brazil and Argentina. Brazil is reportedly 63% complete with harvest but there is still a large discrepancy in production estimates between CONAB and the USDA, with the USDA’s projection nearly 10 mmt higher.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back soybeans but not in the same numbers as they did corn. They covered 16,862 contracts which leaves them net short 155,137 contracts and no longer holding a record short position.

Above: Following the brief run-up off the recent low, soybeans posted a bearish reversal on March 14, indicating a potential market reversal to the downside. Initial support down below may be found near 1175, and again between 1130 and 1140. If the market closes above the 50-day ma and continues higher, it may find resistance near the recent 1217 ½ high before testing the January high of 1247 ½.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 16,862 contracts between March 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 155,137 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed higher across the board today and with double-digit gains for Chicago futures. Support came from higher Matif futures, as well as media reports that 16 Russian drones attacked the Odesa region in Ukraine, damaging ag infrastructure and again increasing tensions. This is reportedly in retaliation for recent Ukraine attacks on Russian oil refineries.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 11.1 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections to 505 mb. That is down 16% from last year, with inspections running below the USDA’s projected pace. On the last WASDE report, the USDA reduced their wheat export estimate from 725 to 710 mb.

  • Cheap Black Sea wheat may keep the lid on US futures for now. According to SovEcon, Russian exports of grain may reach 5.8 mmt in March, compared to 4.9 mmt in February. Additionally, Ukraine’s wheat exports since last July have totaled 12.9 mmt, which is a 5% year on year increase.

  • The European Union is apparently considering restrictions on the import of ag goods from Russia in an effort to pressure the Kremlin. It is believed that transport through the EU to other countries will not be restricted, however.

  • From March 6 to March 12, managed funds net sold 13,331 contracts of Chicago wheat to bring their total net short position to 78,870 contracts. That is a 20.3% increase and also a three-month high. It is possible that some of today’s positive price action was a result of funds covering some of those short positions.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. The strategy for the 2025 crop year remains to hold off on making any sales. Though if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of those better prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a bullish reversal on March 11, prices appear to have stalled around 555 and could retreat toward the support area near the recent low of 523 ½. Below there, further support may be found around 470 – 488. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they then could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,331 contracts between March 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 78,870 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The failure of the market to advance above the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the area, and it may test support near the 551 ½ low. Should prices turn around and close above the 50-day moving average, they could still make a run toward the 610 to 640 congestion area. While there appears to be significant support around 551 ½, if prices fall below there, they could test 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,339 contracts between March 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 35,547 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, March 12. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,437 contracts between March 6 – 12, bringing their total position to a net short 21,701 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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3-15 End of Day: Soybean Oil Leads Beans to a Higher Weekly Close

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A flash sale totaling 125,000 mt of corn to Mexico and carryover support from neighboring soybeans helped lift corn futures and regain some of yesterday’s losses.

  • Strong NOPA crush numbers and sharply higher soybean oil lent support to soybeans which closed at the top end of their 16 ½ cent range and above the 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly three months.

  • The monthly NOPA crush numbers revealed a record-breaking quantity of soybeans crushed for the month of February. While this is supportive for soybeans, the record crush also indicates a surge in meal and oil production, likely adding pressure to the meal market. Conversely, soybean oil stocks hit a nine-year low for the month, implying robust demand and supporting bean oil prices.

  • Concerns regarding Chinese demand for wheat, along with a higher US dollar from hotter than expected PPI (Producer Price Index) data continue to hang over the wheat complex. All three classes of wheat closed lower for the third consecutive day and lower on the week.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 2-week precipitation forecast (also percent of normal) for Brazil, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the uncertainty of the spring planting window.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The recommendation for now is to hold off on additional sales until May corn recovers back toward the 500 level. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains to market the 2024 crop, we will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. For now, we aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be spring or summer of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher on the session as late buying strength in soybeans and positive demand news helped lift corn futures in a relatively quiet day. May corn gained 2 ¾ cents on the session. For the week, May corn futures ended 3 cents lower.

  • USDA reported a flash export sale of corn this morning.  Unknown destinations bought 4.8 mb (125,000 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year. That was the second published sale of corn this week as US corn represents good value in the export market.

  • Improved weather forecast has put selling pressure back into the Brazil corn market. Weather may look more questionable as the calendar turns into April, but weakening corn prices in Brazil may limit rally potential for US corn.

  • The Argentina corn crop remains in good condition, but ratings slipped slightly last week.  Currently 25% of the Argentina crop is rated good to excellent, and 17% poor to very poor.  Argentina is forecasted to produce a record corn crop this growing season after the past 2 years of drought.

  • Managed funds are still holding a large short position in the corn market.  Last week, Managed funds were still net short 296,795 contracts. Expectations are that the funds have covered some short corn positions given the recent price strength. The next Commitment of Traders report will be released on Friday afternoon.

Above: The corn market continues to battle the 50-day moving average and the 435 – 445 resistance area. If it can close above it, the market could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If prices fall back, and close below 421, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since old crop soybeans broke out of the 1290 – 1400 range in January, prices appear to have made a near term low. Managed funds have also established a record net short position for this time of year, and world carryout has dropped according to the USDA. While new lows could still be made, US planting is not far off, and the funds current short position could fuel an extended short covering rally on a smaller South American crop, lower world soybean carryout, and potential US weather concerns.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The current recommendation is to hold off on making additional sales until prices post a modest 30% retracement back toward the 2022 high of 1759.

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the upper 1300 range near the 2022 highs going into spring/summer, at which point we would consider recommending additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher today after another day of volatility which saw May futures down as much as 12 cents at one point before recovering into the end of the day. Yesterday, May futures were up as much as 20 cents before selling off for a loss on the day. May ended the day just below the 50-day moving average at 1198 ½.

  • For the week, May futures gained 14 ¼ cents, May soybean meal lost $6.70, and May soybean oil gained 3.25 cents, a big move thanks to contract highs in palm oil. The palm oil market has rallied sharply this week which has benefited soybean oil and other edible oils and was likely the main driver in soybeans this week.

  • The NOPA crush report was released today and showed 186.194 mb of soybeans crushed in February. This was above the average trade guess of 178 mb, was a record for February, and 12.6% above the previous year. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.69 billion pounds, which was above the average trade guess, but also the lowest in 9 years for the month.

  • In Argentina, the states of Cordoba and Buenos Aires are receiving significant rain which has greatly improved soil moisture in the growing regions, in addition, the Argentine government is rumored to be planning a fifth round of the soy dollar program to encourage farmer selling.

Above: Following the brief run-up off the recent low, soybeans posted a bearish reversal on March 14, indicating a potential market reversal to the downside. Initial support down below may be found near 1175, and again between 1130 and 1140. If the market closes above the 50-day ma and continues higher, it may find resistance near the recent 1217 ½ high before testing the January high of 1247 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had another down day for the third consecutive session. Talk that China cancelled US wheat sales, may have cancelled French sales, and either cancelled or rolled forward up to 1 mmt of Australian sales continued to weigh on the market. Light bear spreading was noted in Chicago futures, where there was greater selling pressure in the front months versus the deferred and could be a result of the recent cancellations as well.

  • In addition to the cancelled sales, yesterday’s negative PPI data showed inflation higher than anticipated. This had the US Dollar Index up sharply yesterday and marginally again today, keeping pressure on wheat futures. This may also indicate that the Federal Reserve will be slower to cut interest rates, which may have longer term implications on the direction of the US Dollar and therefore, wheat prices.

  • On a bullish note, the EU soft wheat production estimate for the 24/25 season was reduced 1 mmt from last month, now at 121.6 mmt, according to Strategie Grains. In addition, the French wheat crop is rated the poorest in four years, 66% good to excellent. France struggled with heavy rain and snow during their planting season that caused an acreage reduction, with current weather also to blame for the declining condition.

  • The International Grains Council has projected higher grain stocks for the 24/25 season at 601 mmt. At the end of this season, stocks are expected to be 599 mmt. Additionally, the total 24/25 grain production is forecasted at 2.33 billion mt, up 1% from the 23/24 estimate. 

  • According to the USDA, the areas of US winter and spring wheat in drought as of March 12 are unchanged from the previous week. About 14% of winter wheat and about 30% of spring wheat areas are said to be experiencing drought conditions.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the early December runup, Chicago wheat has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, the current recommendation is to hold off on making any additional sales unless the market moves back toward last summer’s highs. At which point, we are prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. The strategy for the 2025 crop year remains to hold off on making any sales. Though if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of those better prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a bullish reversal on March 11, prices appear to have stalled around 555 and could retreat toward the support area near the recent low of 523 ½. Below there, further support may be found around 470 – 488. If prices regain their bullish footing, and close above 556, they then could challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages that coincide with the 585 – 620 congestion area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. The current strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward the upper 600s

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. Taking the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position into account, the current strategy for the 2024 crop is to wait for better opportunities and consider recommending additional sales if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-630s.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The failure of the market to advance above the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the area, and it may test support near the 551 ½ low. Should prices turn around and close above the 50-day moving average, they could still make a run toward the 610 to 640 congestion area. While there appears to be significant support around 551 ½, if prices fall below there, they could test 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. From here, the strategy for the 2024 crop is to consider recommending additional sales if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade in a congestion pattern following the retreat from overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support below the market remains near the recent low of 641, with support near 600 if prices fall further. Overhead, if the market reverses and closes above 675 – 680 resistance, they could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.