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4-12 End of Day: Markets Recover from Yesterday’s Bearish Report and Close in the Green

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market rebounded from yesterday’s losses and selling pressure throughout the week to settle within 2 cents of the day’s highs and post a 1 ¼ cent net gain on the week. Although prices closed at the upper end of the day’s range, they remain largely rangebound.

  • After a modest start to the day, soybeans gained strength following the report of a third flash sale for the week to unknown destinations and closed the day near the top end of a 25 ¾ cent range. Further support came from sharply higher soybean meal, which could have triggered some short covering going into the weekend.

  • All three wheat classes closed higher today, mirroring the uptrend in Matif wheat. Heightened tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea regions possibly fueled the market’s rebound from yesterday’s somewhat bearish USDA report and the strengthening US Dollar Index. KC and Minneapolis wheat closed near their session highs, while Chicago wheat settled in the middle of its trading range.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1 and 2-week precipitation forecasts for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices posted some recovery today after the USDA report yesterday and pressure throughout the week. The overall direction for the corn market is still a sideways pattern, but May corn futures closed 1 ¼ cents higher for the week.

  • Argentina’s corn production saw reductions this week by groups of analysts as a leafhopper infestation has triggered infections of “Stunt disease”, limiting the yield in the soon to be harvested crop. The crop reductions have improved the premiums of Argentine corn.

  • The positive on the Thursday USDA report was the increase in demand adjustments for ethanol and feed usage, reflecting the strong corn disappearance during the first quarter as shown by the USDA’s Grain Stock report.

  • The current stocks-to-use ratio in corn is 14.5%, which is the largest in the past 5 years. The projected stocks-to-use ratio for the 24/25 marketing year is currently 15.9%, the highest since 2006. The large supply potential of US corn will keep rallies limited without some true bullish news event.

  • Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wetness in the eastern Corn Belt with predicted rains.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 138,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher and ended the week with the May contract recovering most of the past two days’ losses and closing just below the 40-day moving average. End-of-week profit taking and a flash sale reported this morning were likely supportive to prices today. Soybean meal ended sharply higher while soybean oil was lower.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 11 cents, and November soybeans lost 8 ½, to close at 1174 and 1176 ¼ respectively. May soybean meal gained $11.30 to close at $344.40, and May soybean oil lost 3.00 cents and closed at 45.89 cents. The bulk of this week’s gains in soybean meal were achieved today. Soybean oil has been dragged lower by palm oil.

  • This morning, the USDA reported that 124,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. This was the third sale to unknown destinations announced this week and the fourth in the past two weeks after a long period with none.

  • Yesterday, CONAB released its estimate for Brazilian soybean production which saw it lowered to 146.5 mmt. A few hours later, the USDA released its estimate but made no changes from last month and kept the number steady at 155 mmt. This is a large discrepancy which should narrow as harvest nears completion.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three wheat classes finished the session with gains, despite a rising US Dollar and somewhat bearish tone to yesterday’s USDA report. It is possible that funds were covering some of their short positions in the grain complex due to global uncertainty, with two major wars escalating. There is some concern that the Israel / Hamas conflict may expand beyond that region with the threat of retaliation from Iran after recent attacks against some of their leaders.

  • Paris milling wheat finished 1.75 to 2.50 Euros per mt higher today. Although it remains in a relatively sideways pattern, today’s rally may be tied to declining conditions for the French wheat crop. Conditions are reported to have declined to 64% good to excellent due to weather issues, namely overly wet weather.

  • Russia is reported to have attacked and destroyed the Trypillya coal-fired power plant near Kyiv, Ukraine that provided power to about three million customers. Russia has become more aggressive towards Ukraine’s power facilities as they target infrastructure. It is worth noting that this is not the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that has been in previous headlines.

  • The US Dollar Index rallied above the 106 level today and at the time of writing, is maintaining that strength. The index has not been this high since early November and is showing no signs of slowing down. Though wheat finished positive today, this could act as an anchor for the market as it makes it more expensive for importing nations to buy US goods.

  • The Australian Weather Bureau forecasts that the majority of their primary crop regions will experience rainfall levels ranging from median to above median during the June to August period, improving the chances for better yields of winter crops, including wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 4 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-11 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Following USDA’s Neutral to Bearish WASDE Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A smaller than expected drop in 23/24 corn carryout and disappointing weekly export sales figures, that were a marketing year low, contributed to the negativity in the corn market, which posted a bearish reversal and closed just off the session’s lows.

  • The soybean market closed mid-range and well below major moving averages following a neutral to bearish USDA report that showed US ending stocks above the average trade guess and no downward revisions to South American production.

  • Soybean oil closed sharply lower, as bean oil stocks in today’s WASDE report rose by 45 million lbs on increased production and imports. Meal on the other hand saw no changes in its balance sheet and settled higher, which helped offset oil’s negative influence on beans.

  • Higher than anticipated US ending stocks and increases to both Russian and Ukrainian export estimates by the USDA weighed on all three classes of wheat. Both May Chicago and Minneapolis continued their slides from yesterday’s highs, and while KC traded lower, it held support between the 50 and 20-day moving averages. All three closed near session lows.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the US Drought Monitor, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures, like the rest of the grain markets, were under pressure during the session. The combination of disappointing export sales, and an overall neutral to bearish USDA WASDE report kept sellers active in the corn market. The weak price action will leave the market open to additional selling pressure into the end of the week.

  • The USDA lowered corn ending stocks to 2.122 billion bushels in today’s WASDE report. This was accomplished by adding 25 mb to feed usage demand and 25 md added to ethanol usage. This was still slightly above market expectations but reflected the good domestic corn demand in the first quarter.

  • In South American corn production, the USDA stayed relatively unchanged in their production forecasts. The USDA lowered their Argentina corn crop forecast by 1 mmt to 55 mmt, and left the Brazil forecast unchanged at 124 mmt. These numbers still hold a large spread over analyst and private forecasts for each country.

  • Weekly corn export sales were disappointing last week at 12.8 mb (325,500 mt).  This was a marketing year low and well below the range of analysts’ expectations. Japan was the largest buyer of US corn last week, and total export commitments for the marketing year stand at 1.739 billion bushels, up 17% from a year ago.

  • With the USDA report passed, the market will shift its focus to weather forecasts. Expectations are for temperatures into the end of April to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wet planting in the eastern corn belt with predicted rains.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 138,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a neutral to slightly bearish WASDE report which notably did not show a downward revision in Brazilian soybean production. May soybeans moved further away from and closed well below the 40-day moving average which had previously been support. Soybean meal closed higher while soybean oil was lower along with palm oil.

  • Key takeaways from today’s USDA report include the absence of adjustments to Argentina and Brazil’s estimated soybean production, which remain at 55 mmt and 155 mmt, respectively, both above trade estimates. US ending stocks saw an increase to 340 mb from last month’s 315 mb exceeding trade estimates. Furthermore, world ending soybean stocks were slightly lower than the previous month’s estimate at 114.22 mmt, also surpassing the average trade guess.

  • This morning before the USDA report, Brazil’s CONAB released their own estimates for soybean production which was decreased to 146.522 mmt and is significantly lower than the 156 mmt that the USDA projected today.

  • The weekly export sales report released today revealed an increase of 11.2 mb in soybean sales for the 23/24 season, falling on the lower end of expectations. Last week’s export shipments amounted to 18.5 mb, surpassing the 14.2 mb per week required to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.720 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations included China, Egypt, and Mexico.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1180 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat prices declined across all three US futures categories, mirroring movements in Paris milling wheat futures. The primary influence today stemmed from the release of the monthly WASDE report, which highlighted elevated US ending stocks and expansions in Russian and Ukrainian exports.

  • US wheat ending stocks were estimated at 697 mb, which was above the trade guess of 685 mb and the 673 mb estimate in March. As far as the world numbers are concerned, wheat carryout had little change at 258.3 mmt; the trade was looking for 258.6 mmt and for reference, the March figure was 258.8 mmt.

  • Examining specific regions, Argentina’s ending stocks rose to 3.32 mmt from March’s 2.82 mmt, while Brazil’s stood at 1.0 mmt compared to 1.12 mmt previously. Ukraine’s stocks decreased to 1.58 mmt from 3.28 mmt, with Russia remaining unchanged at 12.44 mmt. Notably, the USDA raised both Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports by 1 mmt and 1.5 mmt, respectively. Australian exports were also raised by 0.5 mmt, while the EU saw a reduction of 2 mmt.

  • In addition to the WASDE report, the market received weekly export sales data. The USDA reported a 3.0 mb increase in wheat export sales for 23/24 and a 10.1 mb increase for 24/25. Last week’s shipments totaled 23.0 mb, surpassing the 17.8 mb per week needed to meet the export estimate of 710 mb (unchanged from the previous month). Shipments to date stand at 557 mb, down 3% from last year but exceeding the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • According to the USDA as of April 9, about 26% of the US spring wheat crop is in drought, a 1% increase from the previous week. In addition, 18% of the US winter wheat crop area is in drought. This is unchanged from last week, but it remains dry in some areas of the southern Plains and western Corn Belt where recent rains have missed. This may be reflected in declining conditions on next week’s Crop Progress report.

  • Though nearly unchanged at the time of writing, the US Dollar Index scored a fresh near-term high today at 105.52. The higher the trend goes, the less competitive US exports become. This may be one of the main limiting factors for the nearby wheat market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent turnaround after posting a 662 ¾ high and testing the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the 660 – 670 area. Prices may still challenge this area and close above it if a bullish catalyst enters the scene. If so, the next major resistance area may be near 700 – 712. If prices slide lower, and close below 638, there’s a risk of retracement towards psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-10 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE Update

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed within pennies of its 50-day moving average for the 5th consecutive day as it traded in a tight 5-cent range and continues to consolidate ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Solid weekly ethanol production numbers and higher wheat prices lent support, while lower soybean prices limited gains.

  • Despite a flash sale to unknown destinations, soybeans went from higher overnight to lower during the day session, with additional pressure coming from the higher US Dollar and increased technical selling once last week’s low of 1168 ½ was breached.

  • Soybean meal closed lower on the day and contributed to the weakness in the soybean pit. Meal saw increased technical selling below the 20-day moving average, while buying support for soybean oil held down near its 50-day moving average and helped it close in the green with further support from higher crude oil.

  • The wheat complex settled higher with support coming from higher Matif wheat futures. KC showed the strongest gains, closing near its highs, while Chicago and Minneapolis turned lower to close near their lows after testing their respective 50-day moving averages.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, NASA-Grace root zone drought indicators for the US and South America, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA and NASA-Grace scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market stayed trapped between the other grains during the session. Selling pressure in the soybean market limited gains, but positive trade in the wheat markets provided support as the market stayed choppy.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report tomorrow, Thursday, April 11. Expectations are for corn ending stocks to be reduced to 2.102 billion bushels, down 70 mb from last month. This should reflect the strong first quarter corn usage as reflected in last month’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • The corn production numbers for Brazil and Argentina may be more of a focus for the market on the WASDE report.  Current USDA estimates are well above analyst estimates for both Argentina and Brazil corn crops. Traders will be watching to see if the gap between the two narrows. The Brazilian Ag agency, CONAB, will also release its production estimates on Thursday morning.

  • The USDA will release weekly corn sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales range from 750,000 –1.3 mmt. Last week, new corn sales totaled 947,000 mt.  

  • Weather forecasts for temperatures into the end of April are predicted to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop. The biggest near-term concern could be wet planting in the eastern corn belt with predicted rains.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day, mainly due to pressure from lower soybean meal, while soybean oil made a recovery and finished the day slightly higher. A big bearish factor today was the sharp increase in the US Dollar Index which makes US exports more expensive, and slow exports have already been an issue.

  • Today, consumer price index (CPI) data was released by the Labor Department, which showed that consumer prices rose by 3.5% in March from the previous year. The consumer price index rose by 0.4% from February to March instead of the 0.3% that was expected, and this has traders concerned that with inflation higher than expected, interest rates may not be lowered this year. This caused the dollar to rally, which is typically bearish for commodities.

  • This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 254,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. Estimates for tomorrow’s Export Sales report have soybean sales between 200k and 600k tons, and the report will include the 152,000 mt flash sale reported last week.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report at 11am CDT. No major changes are anticipated, but estimates are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1180 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Though Kansas City wheat ended with double-digit gains, Chicago did not show much strength, but it was able to claw its way back to a positive close with support from Matif wheat, which gained 2.75-3.50 euros today. Minneapolis also posted small gains. The strength in the wheat complex came despite the US Dollar rising to the highest level since mid-November after today’s CPI data indicated inflation was higher than expected.

  • Some of today’s strength in wheat may have stemmed from reports that Russian wheat FOB values have steadily climbed by $14 over the past three weeks. They remain the world’s cheapest offer and at a $20 discount to France and Germany, but with the gap beginning to narrow, it may allow US wheat to become more competitive down the road.

  • Traders will shift their focus tomorrow towards the highly anticipated monthly WASDE report. Regarding wheat, significant changes are not anticipated. Global carryout is expected to remain steady at 258.6 mmt, nearly unchanged from last month’s 258.8 mmt, yet lower compared to 271.1 mmt from the previous year. The average ending stocks estimate for US wheat stands at 685 mb, up from 673 mb in March and from 570 mb last year. Estimates for wheat production in 24/25 won’t be disclosed tomorrow; traders will need to await the May WASDE report for that information.

  • Two vessels destined for Egypt carrying Russian wheat were held up at Russian ports due to quality concerns. One of the ships is now on the way after Egypt’s Foreign Ministry stepped in to resolve the dispute; some are suggesting that the Kremlin is attempting to take more control of exports. On a related note, there has been talk that Russia may count crop production in occupied Ukrainian territory towards their own numbers. This would bring Russia’s wheat crop from 90-92 mmt to 100 mmt, but the USDA may not acknowledge these adjustments.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent turnaround after posting a 662 ¾ high and testing the 50-day moving average indicates heavy resistance in the 660 – 670 area. Prices may still challenge this area and close above it if a bullish catalyst enters the scene. If so, the next major resistance area may be near 700 – 712. If prices slide lower, and close below 638, there’s a risk of retracement towards psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-9 End of Day: Markets Close Mostly Lower, but Remain Largely Rangebound

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market remains in a sideways trend as traders anticipate Thursday’s USDA WASDE report, which led to volatile two-sided trading. Weakness from neighboring corn and wheat markets, coupled with additional selling pressure near the 50-day moving average, added to the market’s negative tone.

  • The soybean market drifted from its 50-day moving average amid choppy two-sided trade and weakness from both soybean meal and oil, despite a flash sale to unknown destinations. It remains in a sideways trend with limited market-moving news as traders await Thursday’s USDA report.

  • Soybean oil traded toward the lower end of the current 47.00 – 50.00 cent range, influenced by declines in crude oil and lower Chinese palm and soybean oil prices. Additionally, meal settled lower for the first time in five sessions, as it faced selling pressure near its 50-day moving average.

  • Softer Matif wheat futures, combined with better-than-expected winter wheat conditions, weighed down the wheat complex, resulting in mostly lower closings across the board. While both Chicago and KC contracts retreated from their respective 50-day moving averages and settled well below their highs, Minneapolis contracts managed to recover much of the day’s losses and settled near session highs.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure across the grain complex weighed on corn futures during the session. The weak price action leaves the corn market vulnerable to further downside pressure and liquidation as the May contract is looking to test the low for the month of April at 424 ½ from April 2.

  • Seasonality may be working against the corn market with potential price weakness into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to decide to price or roll these positions before the month’s end. This market structure can lead to selling pressure.

  • The USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon showed corn planting in its beginning stages nationally at 3% complete. This was even with last year, and 1% ahead of the 5-year average.  

  • Weather forecast for temperatures into the end of April are predicted to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop.

  • The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday, April 11.  Expectations are for corn ending stocks to be reduced to 2.102 billion bushels, down 70 mb from last month. This should reflect the strong first quarter corn usage as reflected in last month’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: 24/25 corn percent planted seen at 3% (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the May contract closing below the 40-day moving average. Pressure came from lower soybean oil along with lower soybean meal. Prices got a boost earlier this morning after a flash sale was announced but faded into the end of the day.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year. This was the second flash sale announced within two weeks after a long period of no activity. Premiums in Brazil are reportedly rising which could make US soybeans more competitive.

  • In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is pressing on and is reportedly 79% complete which is slightly below last year’s pace. Some of the beans were planted a bit late and recent rains may have delayed the progress. In Argentina, the growing season is winding down and harvest should begin soon.

  • On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt.

Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat faded into the end of the session, with a lower close across the board, except for a penny gain in May spring wheat. The pressure stemmed from a decline in Matif futures, alongside lower US corn and soybean prices. Moreover, the US Dollar is positioned near the middle of the recent range ahead of tomorrow’s release of key inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to have risen by 0.3% in March and 3.5% year-over-year. Any deviation from these projections could prompt a market reaction.

  • According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop condition remained steady at 56% rated good to excellent, marking the best condition seen for this time of year since 2020. Additionally, 6% of the crop is currently headed, slightly lower than the 7% reported last year but above the average of 5%. Furthermore, US spring wheat planting progress is at 3%, aligning with the average and surpassing last year’s 1%.

  • Argentina’s Economy Minister has announced plans to lower tariffs on certain herbicide imports starting in April, just one month before the start of wheat planting for the 24/25 season. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a wheat harvest of 15.1 million metric tons last year.

  • India’s wheat production for the 23/24 season is forecasted to rise to 105.8 million metric tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous year’s 102.9 million metric tons, as reported by the Roller Flour Miller’s Federation. This increase is attributed to expanded planted acreage, estimated at 34 million hectares compared to last year’s 33.6 million hectares, and improved yields. Additionally, the Indian government is expected to boost wheat buying for reserves to 31-32 million metric tons, up from 26.2 million metric tons last year, according to Agriwatch.

  • The USDA projects Russian wheat production at 91.5 million metric tons, while Argus has raised their estimate to 92.1 million metric tons from 90 million previously. Despite the recent rise in Russian wheat FOB values to $210 per metric ton, as reported by IKAR, Russian wheat continues to be the world’s most competitively priced offer, keeping pressure on US futures.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-8 End of Day: Markets Settle Mixed Unable to Hold the Day’s Highs

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following export inspections that exceeded expectations, the corn market closed with slight gains despite choppy trading within a narrow 6-cent range, as it continues to balance solid export demand and heavy nearby supplies.

  • Although soybean export inspections were in line with expectations and above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections, they were unable to sustain soybean’s firmer prices from this morning with weakness carried over from sharply lower soybean oil prices.

  • Weakness from lower Malaysian palm oil and crude oil weighed on soybean oil, which lost 0.99 cents for the day but remained in its range from mid-March. Soybean meal on the other hand continued its upward trend for the fourth day in a row with a modest $2.90 gain.  

  • The wheat complex closed mixed, unable to sustain most of its gains from the early-day rally sparked by reports of renewed attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. The mixed close in Matif wheat futures likely contributed to additional upward resistance in the market.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Sideways and choppy trade ruled the day again in the corn market as prices continued to look for directions. The most active May contract had a 6-cent trading range as prices finished slightly higher.

  • The corn market is balancing a combination of an improved demand tone with heavy front-end supplies. End users are comfortable and do not have to bid aggressively to satisfy current needs.

  • Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. Last week, the USDA inspected 55.9 mb (1.424 mmt) of corn for export, which was above the range of analyst expectations. Current shipments are up 35% from last year and ahead of the pace needed for the USDA marketing year targets.

  • The USDA Crop Progress report is scheduled for release this afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 2% complete, primarily in southern states. With a forecast indicating potentially favorable conditions into mid-April, market observers will closely monitor the planting progress of this year’s corn crop in the upcoming weeks.

  • Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for the Argentina corn crop 52 mmt from 54 mmt last month. The crop has seen damage from “Stunt Disease.” Crop conditions in Argentina have seen an 8% drop in the normal to excellent category over recent weeks.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 7,826 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 259,556 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after relatively volatile trade, which saw July soybeans up as much as 8 cents earlier in the day before selling off almost immediately. Pressure came from lower soybean oil which was down by over 2% in the May contract as a result of lower palm oil. Soybean meal managed to close moderately higher today.

  • According to Patria Agronegocios, the Brazilian soybean harvest is now 79.33% complete. Recent heavy rains in key growing areas have likely slowed down the harvest pace a bit as the harvest was 81.88% complete at this time last year. Total expected production is still up in the air with CONAB projecting a far lower number than the USDA, but the USDA may adjust its estimate in Thursday’s WASDE report.

  • On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt which would be in line with what the Ag attaché reported and closer to CONAB’s estimate.

  • Friday’s CFTC report said that as of April 2, funds sold 3,476 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Between corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat, funds are short 593,000 contracts which is the largest in years.

Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,476 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 138,256 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close, with gains across the board for KC and Minneapolis futures, but losses in the front months for Chicago. This breaks a three-session higher streak for Chicago futures. Paris milling wheat also had a mixed close which may have offered some weakness to the US market.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.3 million bushels, bringing total inspections for the 23/24 season to 634 million bushels. This represents an 11% decrease compared to last year, with wheat inspections currently lagging behind the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • New attacks over the weekend at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are raising concerns about the potential for a radiological disaster for the surrounding growing region. This plant was the same one that was previously in the news for similar reasons. Despite this news, the wheat market shrugged it off as traders have become numb to these attacks.

  • According to SovEcon, Russia exported 1.03 mmt of grain last week, including 820,000 mt of wheat. That is down from 840,000 the previous week. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian export values ended last week at $210 per mt, which is up $2 from the previous week. Despite the increase, wheat out of the Black Sea region remains the world’s most competitive.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market remains attracted to the 50-day moving average, and should it break away from this area to the upside, it could still encounter further resistance between 585 and 620. If they break to the downside, on the other hand, prices may run the risk of testing the 523 ½ low if they close below 537.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 158 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 91,944 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,164 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 40,474 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,554 contracts between March 27 – April 2, bringing their total position to a net short 28,544 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

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4-5 End of Day: Corn Settles Lower Despite Gains in Wheat and Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn’s early support from the wheat and soybean markets faded as the market struggled to find new buyers above key moving averages with demand concerns remaining about the impact of Avian Influenza and the prospect of good planting weather ahead.

  • Soybeans are struggling to stay above the 20 and 50-day moving averages as they remain locked in a sideways pattern for the 4th consecutive day. Overall support remains from strong crush demand and firmer soybean oil despite demand concerns for soybean meal.

  • Despite the downturn in Malaysian palm oil, soybean oil rebounded from yesterday’s losses, finding strong support near its 20-day moving average. Conversely, soybean meal experienced only marginal losses for the day, as its attempt to rally above resistance near the 20-day moving average fell short.

  • Ukrainian attacks on Russian airfields likely spurred further short covering in the wheat complex, rallying prices early. While both Chicago and KC initially traded higher through their 50-day moving averages before retracing, Minneapolis encountered resistance just above its 20-day moving average before declining. Ultimately, all three classes settled mid-range and well off their respective highs.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and 2-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices stayed in a consolidation pattern looking for direction. Despite strong trade in the wheat market and firm trade in the soybean market, corn futures failed to participate. For the week, May corn futures lost 7 ¾ cents and posted its lowest weekly close going back to the last week of February.

  • Demand concerns due to the potential impact of HPAI (Avian Influenza) have limited the corn market this week.  The cases of HPAI have grown in both poultry and dairy cattle this week, which could limit feed demand usage of corn.

  • Chinese corn prices have traded near three-year lows on the Dalian exchange as corn supplies are plentiful.  The USDA foreign ag service reduced 24/25 Chinese corn imports citing better expected overall production and increased planting area. China has remained mostly absent from the US corn export market so far this marketing year.

  • Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day weather models are forecasting above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation going into Mid-April. That combination and recent rain fall over the past week improved the chances for the next US corn crop to get off to a good start.

  • Brazil weather remains unthreatening overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with most of the gains in the front months while new crop soybeans were only 1 cent higher. Support came again from strength in the soybean oil market with May futures closing higher by 1.54% while soybean meal slipped a bit lower.

  • For the week, May soybeans lost 6 ½ cents which marks the third consecutive week of losses. November soybeans only lost 1 ½ cents for the week; May soybean meal was down $4.60, while May soybean oil gained 0.94 cents. Last week, funds covered a portion of their net short position but likely sold some of it back out this week.

  • With palm oil having traded lower today, strength in soybean oil likely came from higher crude oil. Today, Brent crude oil rose to over $90 today and some analysts expect that it could exceed $100 a barrel. Increasing tensions between Iran and Israel are the likely reason for this week’s rally.

  • Export sales remain weak for soybeans with 7.1 mb in sales reported in yesterday’s report as the world largely turns to Brazil for their purchases. Yesterday there was some positive news with Mexico picking up 5.6 mb of old crop US soybeans, but that was the first flash sale reported in weeks.

Above: Support around 1168 appears to be holding for now. Should that area continue to hold, and prices close above the recent high around 1227, they could then run toward the 1291 – 1297 chart gap, though resistance might be found near 1250. If prices drop below 1168, they then run the risk of retreating toward 1130 – 1140.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed double digit gains in the Chicago class, with Kansas City and Minneapolis having only modest gains. Early strength stemmed from talk that Ukraine attacked Russian airfields, but some of that strength faded into the close, potentially due to a friendly jobs report that rallied the US Dollar Index. And after a back-and-forth trade over the past several sessions, May Chicago did post a weekly gain of seven cents.

  • FAO-AMIS has reportedly reduced their estimate of global wheat stockpiles for the 23/24 season. Compared to the March estimate of 318.9 mmt, the new projection has fallen to 317.9 mmt. While they also slightly raised wheat production, the lower stocks are attributed to a cut to Russian inventory. 

  • Wheat conditions in France are rated 65% good to excellent. For reference, the crop was rated at 93% GTE at this time last year. Very wet conditions in western Europe are to blame for the decline. Other than some dryness in the Black Sea region and the US southern plains, there are not many other concerns for global wheat growing areas.

  • While Russia and Ukraine still have the world’s cheapest wheat offers, Russian FOB values have increased from $198 to $213 per ton over the past three weeks. If those export prices continue to rise, it may present the opportunity for the US to become more competitive.

  • From a technical perspective, May Chicago wheat rallied above the 50-day moving average of 570 during today’s session. Though it closed below that level, it has not traded above that moving average since late January. Therefore, the chart is beginning to look a bit more friendly, and any supportive news in the future may give wheat reason to run to the upside.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 100-day moving average, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-4 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed as They Continue to Consolidate

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market encountered choppy two-sided trade throughout the session as it sought direction and continued to consolidate. Sluggish weekly export sales that remain ahead of last year contributed to the sentiment.

  • Poor weekly soybean export sales initially overtook the positive news of a flash sale to Mexico and pressured the soybean market to its lows at the open of today’s day session. Fortunately, the market was able to regain most of the day’s losses in choppy two-sided trade.

  • The drop in soybean oil, which was pressed by weakness in Malaysian palm oil, added to the negativity in soybeans, while meal gained on the day as traders likely unwound long oil/short meal positions.

  • Disappointing wheat export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and a decrease in Matif wheat futures added resistance to today’s wheat prices. All three classes settled below their highs, with May KC wheat encountering technical selling pressure at the 50-day moving average. Minneapolis contracts, however, managed to sustain yesterday’s gains despite weakness in neighboring Chicago and KC contracts.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, US Drought Monitor, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, NOAA, and the NDMC.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy, two-sided trade dominated today’s session as the corn market was looking for direction. Weekly export sales were sluggish for corn compared to recent weeks, but an overall firmer tone in the wheat market supported prices as the corn market continues to consolidate.

  • USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. Last week’s new sales commitments were 37.3 mb (948,000 mt) for the marketing year. This is the first time since mid-February that corn sales were under the 1.0 mmt mark. Japan was the largest buyer of US corn last week.

  • Export shipments last week were 64.6 mb. This was well above the 45.1 mb needed to reach the USDA export target of 2.100 billion bushels for the marketing year. Total corn export commitments are running 18% ahead of last year.

  • Weather forecasts for the US are signaling a warmer and dryer pattern going into mid-month. That combination and recent rain fall over the past week improved the chances for the next US corn crop to get off to a good start.

  • Brazil weather remains unthreatening overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but backed off their early morning lows thanks to support from higher soybean meal and a flash sale reported by the USDA. Soybean oil traded lower today due to a decline in palm oil, but the overall trend is higher thanks to strong demand.

  • This morning, the USDA reported an increase of just 7.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 which was below the lower end of trade estimates. Soybeans sales commitments are now down 19% from last year. Last week’s export shipments were 20.2 mb and were above the 14.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export expectations. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

  • With Brazil’s harvest nearing 80% complete, they have dominated global export sales with cheaper offers than from the US. Estimated Brazilian production is still unclear with the USDA projecting 156 mmt but Brazil’s CONAB closer to 146 mmt. There is rain forecast in South America which could slow the harvest pace.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 5.6 mb of old crop soybeans to Mexico for the 23/24 marketing year which was supportive, and the first flash sale reported in weeks. Export demand is low overall, but domestic demand remains firm thanks to profitable crush margins.

Above: The market’s recent close below the 1175 support level suggests a potential for further retreat toward 1130 – 1140. However, the market shows signs of becoming oversold, which could provide support in case of an upward turn in prices. Overhead, nearby resistance may be found between the 50-day moving average of 1185 and 1202. A close above this range could pave the way for a test of the recent high at 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today and earlier gains faded by the end of the session. A poor export sales figure, along with May Matif wheat breaking below 200 Euros both weighed on US futures. 

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 0.6 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 9.6 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.0 mb were above the 18.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb.

  • Aston, a Russian grain shipping company has come out and denied reports that some of their vessels are being held in port by the Russian government. A spokesperson from the company said that phytosanitary requirements are being fully observed. Of note, however, are new reports suggesting that a different company, Grainflower DMCC, has shipments being held up by the Russian government.

  • The US 24/25 winter wheat production may increase 2% to 35.6 million tons, according to LSEG commodities research. Additionally, they are estimating yield at 50.3 bpa, which would be up 3.1% from the trend yield.

  • According to the USDA as of April 2, about 18% of the US winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions. This represents a 1% increase from the previous week. At the same time, approximately 25% of the spring wheat area is in drought – this is unchanged from last week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 50 and then the 100-day moving averages, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-3 End of Day: Short Covering in Wheat Supports Corn; Soybeans Rally Alongside

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market found support from rising wheat prices, boosted further by a rally in crude oil and a weakening US dollar index, closing near the upper end of its range, just a penny and a quarter shy of the high in the May contract.

  • Early morning strength in the soybean market faded into midday before charging back from the lows with soybean meal and oil both rallying alongside. Additional support may have come from an announcement from Phillips 66 stating that the company’s San Francisco refinery is on track to increase its renewable diesel production by 20k barrels/day by the end of the second quarter, as well as begin producing sustainable aviation fuel.

  • After briefly extending yesterday’s losses, the wheat complex reversed course from yesterday’s negativity and rallied back to settle near the highs in all three classes. Traders likely covered short positions while adding some needed weather premium to prices, as confidence waned in the forecasts of beneficial rain for the dry areas of the SW plains.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and GRACE-Based Drought Indicators for the US and South America, courtesy of the NWS, NOAA, NASA-Grace, and the NDMC.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices found some buying support on Wednesday as strength in wheat, the crude oil market and a weaker dollar helped support prices. Despite the higher trade, May futures traded within yesterday’s trading range as prices consolidated.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.4 mmt. Last week corn sales totaled 1.206 mmt, which was toward the top end of expectations. Current corn export sales are running ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets.

  • Concerns about HPAI (Avian Influenza) have weighed on grain markets over the past couple sessions. The detection of HPAI in cattle herds and in US poultry flocks have the market concerned about limited demand potential and added selling pressure.

  • Brazil weather is still favorable overall for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

  • Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.073 million barrels/day last week. This hit a new daily high for production for the year. Total production was up 7.0% from last year’s levels. Corn used in ethanol production was estimated at 106.5 mb for the week. Total corn used for the ethanol grind for the marketing year has reached 3.104 bb, which is currently ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA targets.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking the trend of five consecutive days of losses prior to today. Futures were likely recovering from oversold conditions but also got help from higher soybean meal and oil prices. May soybean futures are back in between the 40 and 50-day moving averages.

  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its export sales report. Soybean sales are expected to be on the soft side again with trade guesses between 200k and 600k metric tons. There have been no soybean flash sales reported in two weeks, and part of the weakness in soybeans lately has been the lack of export demand. This demand is not expected to improve with the ongoing South American harvest.

  • Crude oil rallied sharply today above $86 per barrel with support from the lower US Dollar. Higher crude oil prices along with stronger vegetable oil prices have been a big support to soybean oil and soybeans. Demand for soybean oil as feedstock is increasing as more biofuel plants pop up across the country.

  • In Brazil, CONAB has estimated that their soybean harvest is more than 71% complete while other analysts peg the completion at 76% done or higher. Discrepancy over total production remains with the USDA holding relatively firm in its guess of 156 mmt while CONAB is much lower near 142 mmt.

Above: The market’s recent close below the 1175 support level suggests a potential for further retreat toward 1130 – 1140. However, the market shows signs of becoming oversold, which could provide support in case of an upward turn in prices. Overhead, nearby resistance may be found between the 50-day moving average of 1185 and 1202. A close above this range could pave the way for a test of the recent high at 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat stopped the bleeding today with a higher close for all three classes. The rally was likely fund short covering; managed funds are estimated to still be short about 90,000 Chicago wheat contracts. In addition, the sharp drop in the US Dollar today may have offered some support to wheat and the grain complex.

  • Russia is reportedly expanding their investigation on the quality of grains for export. Recently, as much as 400,000 mt of grain belonging to shipper RIF, was stuck in port. Now, sources say that Russia has not issued the necessary phytosanitary certificates for two Aston vessels.

  • There are some weather issues in western Europe, where they have received too much Rain. France in particular is expected to receive an additional 1-2 inches. Interestingly, Paris milling wheat futures had a mixed close, with a loss of 0.50 Euros in the front month May contract, but a gain of 0.50 in December.

  • According to Reuters, Indian government is asking private traders to not purchase new-season wheat in an effort to rebuild reserves. Over the past couple of years, record amounts of wheat were sold out of reserves to reduce food inflation and an export ban from 2022 also remains in place. The Food Corporation of India, which is backed by the government, plans to purchase 30 mmt of wheat in 2024, compared with 26.2 mmt last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 50 and then the 100-day moving averages, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After posting a key bullish reversal on April 3 and with additional support from being oversold, prices may attempt to extend further and challenge the resistance area around 660 – 670. However, if they fail to rally, they may be at risk of drifting back toward psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-2 End of Day: Lower Outside Markets and Solid Winter Wheat Ratings Press Grains Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weakness from the wheat complex and equity markets spilled over to the corn market which closed near the bottom of its 12 ¼ cent range.

  • Soybeans followed the strength in soybean oil, trading higher in the day and fading to close lower alongside weaker soybean meal. Additional technical selling came as prices fell below the 20 and 50-day moving averages.

  • The strong crush pace is likely adding pressure to soybean meal as inventories begin to swell and export demand wanes from increased supply from South America. Soybean oil, on the other hand, continues to see strong domestic demand as demonstrated by lower year-over-year stock which is lending the product support along with strong world veg oil prices.

  • The wheat complex closed lower in all three classes, with Minneapolis printing a new contract low and low close. Strong winter wheat ratings and lower outside markets provided the incentive to sellers to press the markets lower.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 7-day forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the NWS, and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 252,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a difficult day in the grain markets as strong selling pressure in the wheat market from favorable crop ratings spilled over into the corn market. Outside market weakness in the equity markets also helped add to the volatility as corn prices pushed the May futures to their lowest prices since March 5.

  • Charts saw technical selling as corn prices pushed lower for the second consecutive session, trading below the most recent low of 426 in the May futures to 424 ½. The weak price action, poor money flow, and lack of bullish news will likely keep sellers active in upcoming sessions.

  • Good precipitation forecast for the corn belt is likely to improve dry areas of the corn belt still reflected on the Drought Monitor maps. U.S. weather is looking more favorable for a potential good start to the 2024 U.S. corn crop.

  • Brazil weather is still trending overall favorable for development of the second (safrinha) corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South American weather will remain a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

  • Ethanol grind for the first half of the marketing year has been strong. During this period (Sept.-Feb.) corn used for ethanol totaled 2.712 billion bushels or up 6.4% over last year. This domestic demand is trending ahead of the USDA expect pace for the marketing year.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 135,000 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower which marks the fifth consecutively lower trading day in the May contract. Pressure continues to come from last week’s USDA report, which showed higher intended planted acres than last year and pressure from lower soybean meal. Soybean oil closed higher and initially supported soybeans earlier in the day before fading.

  • The driver behind the rally in soybean oil prices has come from palm oil and other veg oils. Sunflower oil has been cheaper which has incentivized India to import 51% more sunflower oil in March and 3.3% fewer palm oil imports.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the Fats and Oils report was released and saw a new record for February soybean crush at 196.4 mb. This was slightly lower than the average trade guess but was up 9.6% from last year. While bean oil stocks were down 9% from last year and below expectations.

  • Agrural estimated the Brazilian soybean harvest at 74% complete as of March 28, and Argentina is just now beginning to harvest its soybeans. With the influx of new South American soybean inventories, US exports have been struggling, and yesterday’s export inspections reflected that with just 15.2 mb inspected putting the total for the year at 1,359 mb, 19% lower than the previous year.

Above: Since the middle of March, the soybean market has traded sideways mostly between 1210 and 1180. If 1175 support continues to hold and if prices close above the March high of 1226 ¾, there’s potential for a test of the 1247 ½ January high. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Yesterday’s downward momentum carried through to another negative close for US wheat futures. Pressure stemmed from a lower close for Matif wheat, and lower markets in neighboring corn and soybean futures. The grain complex may also be experiencing some spillover from lower equity markets; at the time of writing, the Dow is down over 450 points.

  • According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop is rated 56% good to excellent and just 11% poor to very poor. This is a relatively good rating when compared with recent years and may also account for some of today’s weakness. Last year, just 28% of the crop was rated Good to Excellent (GTE). When looking at the breakdown, HRW wheat was rated 54% GTE, while SRW was 68% GTE. The USDA also reported that 1% of the spring wheat crop is planted.

  • India is expected to import wheat for the 24/25 season, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. The season begins in April, and imports may total 2 mmt due to good domestic demand coupled with a drop in government reserves. If true, this would be the first time India has been a net importer since the 17/18 season.

  • Saudi Arabia reportedly purchased 795,000 mt of wheat in their tender for June/July delivery, which was more than the expected 595,000 mt. This is the first wheat tender by their General Food Security Authority this year – the last tender was in December of 2023 and resulted in a purchase of 1.353 mmt. In other tenders, Japan is looking for 113,000 mt of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains above the market around the 50-day moving average. Should prices rebound and close above 567, they could still potentially challenge the 50 and then the 100-day moving averages, as well as the congestion area between 585 and 620. Although, if prices retreat and close below 523 ½, there’s a risk of trading downwards toward the next major support level situated around 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: There remains considerable resistance in the area between the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. If prices can close above 605 ¼, they could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Otherwise, if they retreat back below initial support of 575, prices could potentially test the 551 ½ March low.

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the lower boundary of its sideways range, Minneapolis wheat is currently exhibiting signs of being oversold, raising the risk of drifting towards the psychological support at 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼. However, this trajectory could change if an external bullish catalyst emerges. In which case, the oversold conditions could provide support, to help lift prices upwards to challenge the resistance zone around 660 – 670.

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Brazil 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-1 End of Day: Grains Lower to Start April

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn prices were lower Monday after last week’s supportive planting intentions and grain stocks numbers. Weather in Brazil continues to look non-threatening in the short term for the currently growing second crop corn.  

  • Soybean closed lower on Monday after very poor export inspections of just 15.2 million bushels put total inspections down 19% year over year.

  • Soybean meal prices were also lower on the day while soybean oil held onto small gains given continued strength in crude oil futures.

  • The US Dollar Index traded to its highest level since mid-November today putting pressure on all three wheat classes which closed lower on the day.

  • To see the updated Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS, and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. During this period, Managed Money has reduced its net short position by approximately 53,000 contracts, although it still holds a historically large short position of around 243,000 contracts. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn market saw selling pressure to start the week as the market still weighing out the recent USDA report for planting intentions and grain stocks. While overall numbers were better than expected the supply of corn in the front end and projected long term still limits the market.

  • The USDA Weekly export inspections were supportive on Monday morning. Last week total corn inspections were 1.432 MMT (54.6 mb), above the high end of market expectations. Year-to-date, total inspections have reached 25.87 MMT (1.018 bb), up 34% over last year.

  • Improved precipitation forecast for the corn belt are likely to Improve areas of the corn belt still reflected on the drought monitor maps. U.S. weather is looking more favorable for a potential good start to the 2024 U.S. corn crop.

  • Brazil weather is still trending overall favorable for development of the second corn crop. There are no short-term issues now, but South America weather will stay as a key market driver in the weeks ahead.

  • Managed money grew their short positions in the corn market last week as prices slid into the USDA Acres and Grain Stocks report. Funds are now net short 251,730 contracts on last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report. This was an increase of 8,742 net short positions.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 430 down below. If prices can close above 445, they could then test the January high of 452 ¼. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA gave little in the way of outright bullish information to trigger great amounts of short covering as their March 1 stocks and prospective soybean plantings estimates were relatively neutral and came in as expected by the market. That said, Managed Money still held a sizable 148,399 contract net short position in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, which can still fuel a short covering rally if issues come up this season, with planting not that far off. Otherwise, prices may still be at risk of retesting the recent lows this spring if weather stays benign and planting goes smoothly.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day lower despite a higher start. Last week’ USDA report showed planting intentions and stocks within the average trade guesses, but the increase in acres was still bearish. Soybean oil had provided support earlier in the day but faded slightly to close higher while soybean meal ended the day lower.

  • Today, soybean inspections were released and totaled 15.2 mb for the week ending March 28. This was lower than the lowest end of the trade range and puts total inspections at 1,359 mb which is down 19% from the previous year.

  • In January, soybean oil for use in US biofuel production fell to 960 million pounds from 1,141 million pounds in December. Despite this, crush demand is strong and soybean crush is seen at 196.7 mb in February which would be up 11.2% from the previous year.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 26 by 13,559 contracts leaving them net short 134,780 contracts, but it is estimated that on Thursday following the USDA report, they sold 1,500 contracts.

Above: Although May soybeans rejected a rally through the March 14 high of 1217 ½, they could still test the January high of 1247 ½ if downside support near 1175 continues to hold and if prices close above 1226 ¾. If not, the market runs the risk of retreating down toward the 1130 – 1140 support area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes posted losses today. The US Dollar Index was also up sharply today, breaking above the 105 mark and to the highest level since mid-November. This put some pressure on the grain complex and wheat in particular, as it makes it more expensive for importing countries to buy US ag goods.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 18.3 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections now to 543 mb. That is down 12% from last year and inspections are running behind the pace to meet the USDA’s goal.

  • According to the CFTC as of March 26, managed funds increased their short position in Chicago wheat by 14.3% to 92,102 contracts, from 80,570 previously. The Kansas City wheat short increased by 12.6% from 37,857 to 42,658 contracts.

  • Ukraine’s grain exports have totaled 34.6 mmt since the season began on July 1. That is a 7.5% decline year on year. However, their wheat exports in particular have seen a 7.5% increase since last year at 13.7 mmt. Of that total, 1.9 mmt was shipped in March.

  • Reportedly, the Indian government is mandating that traders, food processors, and retailers must report wheat stocks every Friday in April. This is in an effort to prevent hoarding; India had a previous limit on how much wheat that traders could hold, but this expired at the end of March. In addition, their government surplus of wheat is said to be the lowest since 2017 at 9.7 mmt.

  • SovEcon has reported that Russia had shipped 1.02 mmt of grain last week, with 840,000 mt of that being wheat. That total is down from 1.27 mmt previously, while the previous week’s wheat shipments were at 1.27 mmt. In addition, IKAR has said that Russian wheat FOB values ended at $208 per mt last week, resulting in the third weekly increase in a row.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since making a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways with relatively small gains capped by overhead resistance. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market remains oversold on a macro level, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both of these factors could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat posted a bearish reversal on March 25, indicating there is significant resistance above the market near the 50-day moving average. Prices could still challenge the 50 and 100-day moving averages, and the 585 – 620 congestion area if they rebound and close above 567. Otherwise, if they retreat and close below 523 ½, they run the risk of trading down toward the next major support level near 488.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. As weather becomes a more dominant market mover, we are targeting 670 – 700 versus May ’24 futures to recommend making additional sales. This area represents a modest 20% retracement back toward the 2022 highs.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: There remains considerable resistance in the area between the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. If prices can close above 605 ¼, they could continue towards the congestion range between 610 and 640. Otherwise, if they retreat back below initial support of 575, prices could potentially test the 551 ½ March low.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since last summer, Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to trade sideways with overhead resistance near the 50-day moving average. Initial support remains below the market near the 630 level with more support near 600 if prices fall further. Up top, if the market reverses and closes above the 50-day moving average and 675 – 680 resistance, it could challenge the 700 – 710 area.

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