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2-22 End of Day: Corn and Beans Continue Lower Thursday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Spot corn futures fell to a new contract low for the ninth time in the past 12 trading days today as competition from cheap Ukrainian corn has likely drawn potential buyers away from US corn.
  • Soybean futures closed lower again today as pressure from ongoing Brazilian harvest, as well as an improved short-term forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil plagued the entire soybean complex.
  • Wheat futures were unable to build on strong upside momentum at the beginning of the daily trading session today as Chicago futures closed just slightly higher while KC and Spring wheat futures closed lower. Spillover weakness from corn and soybean futures added outside pressure.  
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the US Monthly Drought Outlook courtesy of NOAA, UNL and the NCEI scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke to new lows for the second consecutive session and have traded lower 5 out of the past 6 sessions. March corn lost 5 cents, and May was 5 ¾ cents lower on the day. Going into Friday, the March corn futures is trading 10 ½ cents lower on the week.
  • Friday’s session could have an increased amount of volatility as March grain options expire. Markets can typically move to areas with a large open interest for specific options and increase volatility during the trading day.
  • The March futures contract reaches First Notice Day, February 29. Until then, producers with basis contracts will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. The combination of pricing basis contracts and a large commercial net long position can pressure the corn market in this time window.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina lowered its estimated corn crop for this growing season to 57 MMT down 2MMT from 59 MMT last month. The exchange stated that production losses due to heat wave in January and early February impacted production forecasts.
  • The weekly corn export sales report will be pushed back until Friday morning due to the President’s Day holiday. Expectations for new corn sales are to range from 700,000 – 1.5 MMT for last week as U.S. corn is still competitive in the global export market at this point.

Above: Front month corn rejected the reversal on Feb. 20 and turned back lower. The general lack of bullish news continues to drag on prices which could continue to drift lower toward 415 support in the May contract unless some bullish input enters the marketplace. If that happens and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains between 450 – 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower for the second consecutive day for a combined loss of 31 cents in the March contract. Pressure has come from the ongoing Brazilian harvest, improved weather in South America, and cheaper Brazilian soybean offers compared to the US.
  • Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today as well with both March soybean meal and soybean oil making new contract lows. Crush margins have narrowed significantly from January but remain profitable for now.
  • In Brazil, soybean basis fell today and soybeans FOB in Paranagua have reportedly fallen to 80 cents below March futures in the US. This comes amid harvest in which Brazil is over 30% completed. Estimates for total production are still within a very wide range with the lower estimates at 145 mmt and the USDA’s highest estimate at 156 mmt.
  • A large factor in yesterday’s lower prices in the grain complex came from the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes which showed that the Fed is more concerned about cutting rates too fast rather than keeping them high. This could cause the dollar to rally, which is bearish for commodities.

Above: Front month soybeans’ attempt to test overhead resistance failed after printing a high just above 1490. That failure suggests that overhead resistance now rests between 1490 and 1205 and that prices could drift further toward 1140 – 1145 support without fresh bullish input. The market continues to be oversold, which can provide additional support if a bullish catalyst does spur prices back higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a strong start to the session, wheat closed with only small gains in Chicago, and losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis futures. Early strength may have been fund short covering, however spillover weakness in the corn and soybean markets may take some of the blame for the sharp turnaround.
  • Paris milling wheat futures closed with a gain of 3.75 Euros per metric ton in the front month March contract. This, along with a significant decline in the US Dollar added to early support. However, the Dollar gained strength throughout the day, adding pressure back onto the market by the close.
  • Reportedly, the Biden administration may issue new sanctions on Russia beginning March 1. The announcement may be made as soon as tomorrow. At any rate, wheat out of the Black Sea region continues to be offered much more cheaply than other origins, as long as this remains the case it will be difficult for US futures to rally.
  • Managed funds are still said to hold a hefty net short position in both Chicago and KC wheat. If the market does receive friendly news in the form of weather, politics, or something else, it could lead to a short covering rally. However, they are also momentum traders, and may add short positions until there is a better sign of a bottom.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. For now, if prices can continue to proceed higher the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. If they turn back lower, initial support remains near 555, with the next major support level down around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal on Feb. 20 indicates that there is support below the market around 650. This reversal and the fact that the market is oversold could trigger short covering and lead prices toward 680 – 690 resistance. If the reversal doesn’t hold and prices retreat further, the next major support level remains near 595.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-21 End of Day: Corn and Beans Set New Lows for the Move

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover pressure from soybeans weighed on the corn market along with improved South American weather and reports that Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is getting planted well ahead of last year’s pace. Both March and May corn gave up yesterday’s advances to print new contract lows and low closes.
  • Despite reports of another South American crop watcher lowering Brazil’s soybean crop, the fact that Brazil’s soybean harvest is over 30% complete and entering the export pipeline at prices considerably lower than US offers, continues to weigh on the soybean market. Today, all three legs of the soybean complex posted losses, with both soybeans and meal giving up yesterday’s gains and March beans printing a new low for the move.
  • While the lack of follow through from yesterday’s strong close in the wheat complex was disappointing, Chicago wheat clawed back most of the losses to close near the upper end of the range with the March contract posting a small gain. Upward resistance came from lower Matif wheat futures and reports that Russia’s FOB export prices dropped $5 per mt to $218.
  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day US temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the Grace-Based drought indicator for South America, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, NASA Grace and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke to new lows during the session as selling pressure from the soybean market spilled over into the corn market. March corn lost 7 ¾ cents and May corn dropped 8 ¼ cents during the session.
  • The March futures contract reaches First Notice Day, February 29. Until then, producers with basis contracts will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. The combination of pricing basis contracts and a large commercial net long position can pressure the corn market in this time window.
  • With a strong harvest pace for Brazil soybean, the second crop corn planting is running well ahead of schedule. As of last week, an estimated 45.3% of the crop was planted versus 33.3% last year. The key producing state of Mato Grasso was 67.1% completed with the second crop corn.
  • South American weather is currently non-threatening overall. The improved forecast should help maintain the forecasted strong Argentina corn crop and promote a good start to the second crop Brazil corn.
  • The weekly corn export sales report will be pushed back until Friday morning due to the President’s Day holiday. US corn is very competitive on the global market at this point, and current export sales are trending 30% higher than last than last year’s levels.

Above: Front month corn rejected the reversal on Feb. 20 and turned back lower. The general lack of bullish news continues to drag on prices which could continue to drift lower toward 415 support in the May contract unless some bullish input enters the marketplace. If that happens and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains between 450 – 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, wiping out all of yesterday’s gains and then some with pressure from improved South American weather and South American cash offers that are well below those from the US. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well while crude oil moved higher.
  • US soybeans are currently 4% per metric ton more expensive than Brazil with the basis difference US +$1.58 over Brazil for the month of March. While yesterday’s export inspections were stronger than anticipated, the possibility of Chinese cancellations in favor of Brazilian soybeans remains.
  • Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated to be over 30% harvested, and estimates for total production are still being lowered. Agroconsult sees production at 152.2 mmt which is a reduction of 1.6 mmt, and another crop scout is estimating production at 145 mmt, far below the USDA’s last estimate of 156 mmt.
  • While US soybean export sales are currently behind those of last year, Brazil’s exports remain strong. However, Brazilian export sales are expected to fall slightly for the month of February from last year. Exports are expected to reach 7.3 mmt for February, which compares to 7.55 mmt in the same month a year ago.

Above: Front month soybeans’ attempt to test overhead resistance failed after printing a high just above 1490. That failure suggests that overhead resistance now rests between 1490 and 1205 and that prices could drift further toward 1140 – 1145 support without fresh bullish input. The market continues to be oversold, which can provide additional support if a bullish catalyst does spur prices back higher.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After trading in negative territory the majority of the day, March Chicago wheat managed to come back just above water by the close, with a gain of a half cent. Even though the rest of the Chicago contracts posted small losses, they still closed well off session lows – a potentially encouraging sign. What is discouraging is the fact that yesterday’s strength did not follow through today. But pressure from the rest of the grain complex as well as a lower close for Matif wheat offered no support during this session.
  • On a bearish note, according to their Agriculture Minister, Russia may export 70 mmt of grain in 2024. This is an increase from the previous 66 mmt estimate. The planted area in 2024 is also expected to increase by 300,000 hectares to 84.5 million ha. This does not bode well for the export market, in which Russia is already dominant.
  • According to the World Organization for Animal Health, a bird flu outbreak on farm in Peru led to the death of 4,000 birds via the virus; the remaining 27,000 animals were culled. While this may not have a direct impact on wheat at this time, the concern is that if the virus is spread on a large scale, it could affect feed demand.
  • After a near term peak on the US Dollar Index last Wednesday, the trend since then has been downward. If it continues to fall, it will make US exports more competitive, benefiting the market. However, according to IKAR, Russia’s hard wheat FOB values fell this week by five dollars to $218 per mt. With what seems like a steady drop in their export values, it will be a difficult obstacle to overcome.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. For now, if prices can continue to proceed higher the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. If they turn back lower, initial support remains near 555, with the next major support level down around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal on Feb. 20 indicates that there is support below the market around 650. This reversal and the fact that the market is oversold could trigger short covering and lead prices toward 680 – 690 resistance. If the reversal doesn’t hold and prices retreat further, the next major support level remains near 595.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-20 End of Day: Wheat Leads the Markets’ Strong Start to the Week.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Early strength in the corn market from wheat and word of year-round E15 approval likely faded when news broke that the approval would be delayed until 2025. March corn recovered somewhat mid-session to settle mid-range, 3 cents off the high.
  • Soybeans ended the day near the low end of the range following choppy trade after prices faded from early morning highs on news of additional measures by China to stimulate their economy after it came back from its weeklong New Year’s celebrations.
  • Soybean meal continued its rally from last week with support coming from firmer basis and continued tight supplies from last month’s slowdown in crush. Soybean oil was firmer to start the day, but gave up its gains and took some support away from soybeans as follow through selling from Friday entered the market. 
  • The wheat complex rebounded in today’s session with the Chicago contracts leading the way higher. While Front month KC also reversed higher, the lead contracts in both Chicago and Minneapolis closed the day posting bullish key reversals. The market reversals from oversold conditions likely triggered short covering which added to the day’s strength.
  • To see the updated US 5-day total precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day US temperature and precipitation outlooks, and Brazil’s 1-week precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong support from the wheat market and news regarding E15 helped support corn futures to start the week. March corn added 2 ¼ cents and May was 3 cents higher on the session. 
  • The Biden administration will approve the request from a group of Midwest Governors to allow year-around sales of gasoline with higher ethanol blends. This paves the way for E15 but will wait for 2025 to start. The news brings mixed reactions – glad that change is coming, but disappointed to have to wait until 2025.
  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn to Japan. The 6.1 mb (155,000 mt) was slated for the 24/25 marketing year.
  • Weekly corn export inspections last week reached 36.2 mb (919,000 mt), which was within expectations. Total inspections are now at 713 mb, up 32% over last year’s disappointing totals.
  • The March futures contract reaches First Notice Day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis.

Above: The front month has rolled from the March to the May contract where May has about a 13-cent premium over the March. The May contract also shows support around 428 which equates to about 415 in the March when considering the difference in premium between the two. So far, that support is holding, and prices could turn back toward the 450 – 460 area if a bullish input enters the market. If not, prices may continue to slide toward 400 psychological support or possibly 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but backed significantly off their earlier morning highs by about 10 cents. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil closed lower along with lower crude oil. A potentially strengthening Chinese economy, good exports, and funds nearing their record large short positions were all friendly today.
  • Over the weekend, China’s government announced that it would cut the country’s benchmark 5-year loan prime rate which was the first time it has been lowered since June. The move comes as the Chinese government looks to stimulate the economy which could be friendly for soybean demand.
  • For the week ending February 15, soybean inspections totaled 43.6 mb. This was towards the higher range of estimates and was a good number for this time of year. Total inspections of 1,175 mb are down 23% from last year.
  • The USDA announced a flash sale of soybean meal to the Philippines this morning.  The sale of 228,000 mt of soybean meal were scheduled for the current marketing year. In addition to this, China is back from their holiday which could bring more purchases from the US.
  • Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 4,200 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 134,500 contracts and nearing their record short position.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • It was a banner day for the wheat market, with all three US classes posting double digit gains. The first two months in Chicago wheat in particular rallied more than 20 cents. Bull spreading was noted, in which nearby futures showed more strength than deferred contracts. This may indicate some of today’s action may be short covering by the funds as well as a technical correction of oversold conditions and last week’s lows.
  • Weekly wheat inspections of 14.0 mb bring the 23/24 total to 444 mb. This is down 18% from last year and is running below the USDA’s projected pace. Exports for 23/24 are estimated at 725 mb.
  • As stated by their Agriculture Ministry, only 1% to 2% of Ukraine’s winter wheat crop will be damaged and not survive the winter. Over 95% of wheat in Ukraine is winter wheat, and on average, up to 7% of the crop dies due to frost or ice. This year’s winter has been relatively mild, which accounts for the less than normal damage.
  • France’s wheat crop is said to be rated just 68% good to excellent versus 93% at this time last year. This is the poorest rating since 2020. Heavy rains during planting are cited as the reason for the lower rating. Additionally, France also planted less wheat acres than average due to the earlier weather issues.
  • Despite another three dollar per ton FOB decline in Russian wheat values last week, Ukraine is said to have offered wheat even more cheaply. At $218 per mt FOB, Ukraine found some business in Egypt’s tender, in the amount of two cargoes. Regardless, Russia is sure to remain stiff competition on the export market since both IKAR and Sov Econ estimate their wheat crop to be around 93 mmt.
  • According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, El Nino still persists, but is also steadily weakening. Four out of seven international climate models suggest that the pattern will return to neutral by April, while all seven models agree on a neutral pattern by May.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The downside breakout from the 584 – 618 congestion pattern suggests that prices may attempt to test the next support level around 555. If the 555 can hold and prices turn back higher, upside resistance will again be found between 584 and 618. If not, the next major level of support remains near the September low of 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. In early December the July ’24 contract posted a 70-cent rally mostly on short covering activity in the front month contracts. Since then, July ’24 has drifted lower as growing conditions have seen improvement. Still, much of the growing season remains, and managed funds continue to carry a significantly short position in old crop. Even though bullish headwinds remain, this could fuel another short covering rally if any production concerns come to the forefront. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside. As the market got further extended into oversold territory and July ’24 showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Grain Market Insider also recommended on Friday to exit the remaining KC 660 puts. If you did not have a chance to exit those puts, Grain Market Insider will express a continued opportunity to exit those puts if the market retraces today’s strength back towards 570.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. On Friday, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining KC 660 puts. If you did not have a chance to exit those puts, Grain Market Insider will express a continued opportunity to exit those puts if the market retraces today’s strength back towards 570.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish key reversal on Feb. 20 indicates that there is support below the market around 650. This reversal and the fact that the market is oversold could trigger short covering and lead prices toward 680 – 690 resistance. If the reversal doesn’t hold and prices retreat further, the next major support level remains near 595.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-16 End of Day: Soybeans Stage a Small Recovery on Short Covering Ahead of the Long Weekend

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from the wheat complex weighed on the corn market, which also likely saw balanced support from neighboring soybeans and short covering ahead of the long three-day weekend, as prices settled mixed and near unchanged with the deferred contracts gaining on the nearby.
  • March soybeans ended the day at the top end of the day’s range and just a penny and a half off its high as traders likely covered short positions ahead of the long Presidents Day weekend, and in anticipation of new potential Chinese business next week as the country returns from its weeklong New Year’s holiday.
  • Soybean meal found support from potential short covering as prices reversed higher from being oversold and closed above yesterday’s high. Soybean oil on the other hand traded lower as sellers sent the market lower for the third day in a row. Yesterday’s huge 1.507 billion lbs NOPA soybean oil stocks estimate likely added fuel to today’s selling.
  • All three wheat classes closed in negative territory for the day and the week, with both March KC and Minneapolis printing fresh contract lows. Despite this week’s losses, US wheat exports remain at a $25 – $30 per tonne disadvantage to Russian and Ukrainian offers.  
  • To see the updated US 7-day total precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day US temperature and precipitation outlooks, and Brazil’s 2-week precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures were mixed as prices squared up off losses for the week going into the 3-day weekend. March futures lost 1 ¼ cents on the session, setting a new contract low and close. For the week, March futures traded 12 ½ cents lower, closing lower for the third consecutive week.
  • The USDA Outlook Forum projections detailed the possibility of growing corn supplies into the next marketing year. The forecasted new crop carryout of 2.532 billion bushels put the Stocks–to-use ratio at 17.22%, which would be the highest ratio since 2006, which represents a burdensome potential corn supply.
  • Weakness in the wheat market spilled over and limited rally potential in the corn market.  Wheat futures broke to new contract lows as US wheat is still expensive on the global scale.
  • The March futures contract is closing in on First Notice Day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts and commercials with a large net long position in the corn market will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. This can add additional selling pressure to the already weak corn market.
  • Managed and hedge funds are still pushing their possible record short position in the corn market as the market looks for bullish news. Funds were short 297,000+ net contracts last week on the Commitment of Traders report, and that position has likely grown given the market weakness.

Above: The continued slide in front month corn is knocking on the door of 415 support and is showing signs of being extremely oversold. If support can hold and a bullish story enters the market, the oversold status can bring additional support to rally prices back toward the 450 – 460 resistance area. If not, prices may continue to slide toward 400 psychological support or possibly 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher to end the week as non-commercials likely took profits on their short positions. There was very little friendly news this week to support prices with bearish Outlook Forum numbers from the USDA and poor export sales. Soybean meal closed higher but soybean oil was lower.
  • For the week, March soybeans lost 11 ¼ cents to end at 1172 ¼, March soybean meal lost $1.20 to end at $345.60, and March soybean oil lost 1.67 cents to end at 45.59 cents. Non-commercials were likely large sellers across the soy complex again this week with a near-record large short position.
  • In Brazil, a spokesperson for the Ag Ministry has said that they expect total production for the 23/24 soybean crop to come in at 145 mmt or lower but estimates out of Brazil remain in stark contrast with the USDA’s last estimate of 156 mmt. Either way, total South American production should be above last year.
  • Some positive news came from strong NOPA crush numbers yesterday but were still below the previous month, with the harsh January weather likely being a contributing factor. 185.8 mb of soybeans were crushed, which was below expectations but still a record number for January.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat complex ended the day in the red with all three classes posting heavy losses for the week; -35 ¼ cents in Chicago; -34 ¼ cents in KC; and -29 ¼ cents for Minneapolis. While March Chicago continues to hold above last November’s low of 556 ¼, both KC and Minneapolis wheat printed fresh contract lows in the March contracts.
  • The recent drop in US wheat prices has done little to help the US competitiveness in the world export markets. The US still finds itself between $25 and $30 per tonne more expensive than Russian and Ukrainian offers, which continue to dominate the world wheat market.
  • IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s 2024 grain production to 146 mmt which includes 93 mmt of wheat. The updated forecast is just above the USDA estimate of 91 mmt and it lines up with SovEcon’s latest forecast of 93.6 mmt. IKAR also raised its export estimate to 52 mmt, 1 mmt above the USDA.
  • The European firm Strategie Grains released its latest estimate of EU wheat production, and it came in at 122.6 mmt, near unchanged from last month. The firm noted high wheat ending stocks for the 23/24 season due to competition from Russia, and imports from Ukraine.
  • Later this afternoon, the CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report showing net positions for large speculative and commercial institutions as of Tuesday, February 13. Given the steep declines that occurred late this week, it is unlikely that this update will show substantial increases in net short positions. But, based on recent activity, it is estimated that Managed Funds hold a net short position totaling 80,000 contracts in Chicago wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The downside breakout from the 584 – 618 congestion pattern suggests that prices may attempt to test the next support level around 555. If the 555 can hold and prices turn back higher, upside resistance will again be found between 584 and 618. If not, the next major level of support remains near the September low of 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The 575 support level in front month Chicago failed to hold and prices may continue to recede toward the next major support level around 530. That said, the market is showing signs of being extremely oversold, and if a bullish impetus arises, prices could turn back higher on short covering. If prices do turn around, overhead resistance may be found between 590 and 600.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to drift lower, and with the failure of 669 support, the market is at risk of drifting further toward the next major support level around 595 unless a bullish catalyst enters the scene. Although, prices are trending lower. The market is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse from fresh bullish input. If that happens, the first level of resistance may come in around 680 – 690.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-15 End of Day: Markets Continue Downward Slide with All Contracts Closing in the Red

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 19, in observance of Presidents Day

 

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A weak technical picture and projections for growing supplies from the USDA Outlook Forum kept downward pressure on the corn market despite solid export sales that came in at the upper end of expectations and ahead of last year’s numbers.
  • While NOPA crush members crushed a record amount of soybeans for the month of January, the totals came in well below expectations, and that along with bearish, though not surprising, USDA Outlook Forum numbers, was enough to press soybeans lower for the third consecutive day.
  • Soybean meal and oil also closed lower on the day, both posting losses mostly in line with soybeans, though March Board crush margins narrowed 3 ¾ cents to 90 ¾ cents per bushel.
  • All three wheat classes ended the day in the red with Chicago again leading the charge south, and both March contracts in KC and Minneapolis set fresh contract lows. Adding to the negativity were bearish USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers and an updated forecast from SovEcon that raised expectations of a bigger Russian wheat crop.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Difficult day in grain markets, and that pressured corn futures to new lows. The USDA Outlook Forum projections detailed the possibility of growing corn supplies into the next marketing year. March corn lost 6 ½ cents on the session.
  • The technical picture and price action in corn remains weak and the March contract closed under 420, leaving the market more susceptible to downside pressure.
  • The USDA Outlook projections estimated corn acreage for the 24/25 crop at 91 million acres and trend line yield at 181 bpa. This combination puts estimated production at 15.040 billion bushels and forecasts new crop carryout to 2.532 billion bushels.
  • Corn export sales stay active. Weekly export sales were near the top end of expectations at 51.5 mb (1.307 mmt), and export pace needs to stay strong in this window to meet the USDA’s goal. Total corn sales are now at 1.426 billion bushels, up 30% from last year.
  • The March futures contract is closing in on first notice day, February 29. In this window, producers with basis contracts and commercials with a large net long position in the corn market will need to roll to the next month or price bushels against the basis. This can add additional selling pressure to the already weak corn market.

Above: The continued slide in front month corn is knocking on the door of 415 support and is showing signs of being extremely oversold. If support can hold and a bullish story enters the market, the oversold status can bring additional support to rally prices back toward the 450 – 460 resistance area. If not, prices may continue to slide toward 400 psychological support or possibly 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed significantly lower again today after yesterday’s close that saw March soybeans losing nearly 16 cents. Neither the USDA’s Outlook Forum numbers nor today’s export sales report were friendly. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.
  • This morning’s Outlook Forum numbers showed expected planted soybean acres for 24/25 increased as expected from 83.6 ma to 87.5 ma. With this increase in expected planted acres and using the higher trendline yield of 52.0 bpa, ending soybean stocks are estimated higher at 435 mb.
  • For the week ending February 8, the USDA reported an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. Export sales were on the lower end of expectations and sales are now 19% behind a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 53.4 mb were well above the 20.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Spain.
  • The NOPA crush report for January showed 185.8 mb of soybeans crushed, which was below the average trade guess of 189.9 mb but was still a record large number for January. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.507 billion pounds compared to estimates of 1.409 billion.
  • Argentinian weather is expected to improve further over the next week, and Brazil is forecast to continue receiving scattered showers as well. Argentinian soy production has been estimated slightly higher by Refinitiv Commodities Research to 51.9 mmt which is up 1% from a previous update.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex closed in the red with the USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers, and an upward revision to the Russian wheat crop by SovEcon adding to the negativity.
  • This morning’s USDA’s Ag Outlook numbers for wheat showed estimates of planted wheat acres falling to 47.0 million acres in 24/25 from 49.6 ma last year, and using a trendline yield of 49.2 bpa, estimated wheat ending stocks for 24/25 came out to 769 mb. This compares to the average trade guess of 717 mb and 23/24 ending stocks of 658 mb.
  • In addition to the USDA Ag Outlook Forum numbers, the USDA released weekly export sales as of February 8. For the 23/24 marketing year, the USDA reported new sales totaling 12.8 mb (349k mt) which brings total commitments for the 23/24 marketing year to 646.8 mb, a 7% increase over last year. The USDA also reported 1.8 mb in new sales for 24/25.
  • Consulting firm SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s 2024 wheat crop by 1.4 mmt to 93.6 mmt due to good growing weather in most of the regions. This represents a 400,000 mt increase from last year. This news added yet another layer of bearishness to the already weak wheat markets since weak Russian prices have been a major hurdle for US prices and exports for some time.
  • France’s 23/24 soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5m tons which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44 and represents the highest total since the 2018/19 season. The country’s soft wheat exports are currently estimated at 16.7 mmt, near unchanged from last month.
  • Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought just over 115k mt of food-grade milling wheat in a tender from the US, Canada, and Australia that closed on Thursday. Bangladesh also issued an international tender to purchase 50k mt of milling wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The downside breakout from the 584 – 618 congestion pattern suggests that prices may attempt to test the next support level around 555. If the 555 can hold and prices turn back higher, upside resistance will again be found between 584 and 618. If not, the next major level of support remains near the September low of 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat broke through nearby downside support of 688 and may continue to drift lower to test the January low of 678 ¾. If the 678 ¾ area fails, the next major support level may come in around 669. Overhead, resistance remains between 710 and 720.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to drift lower, and with the failure of 669 support, the market is at risk of drifting further toward the next major support level around 595 unless a bullish catalyst enters the scene. Although, prices are trending lower. The market is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse from fresh bullish input. If that happens, the first level of resistance may come in around 680 – 690.

Other Charts / Weather

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2-14 End of Day: Markets Red Across the Board on “Risk Off” Day in the Grains

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Weekly ethanol production numbers were strong, but not enough to shake off the weakness from neighboring wheat and soybeans as March corn drifted to a new contract low before recovering somewhat going into the close.
  • News of the Rosario Grain Exchange raising its forecast for Argentina’s soybean crop added pressure to the market after early strength in March soybeans faded and turned lower to trade the lowest spot month close since December 2020.
  • The higher forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop also added pressure to soybean meal, which saw two-sided trade before closing lower on the day. Whereas soybean oil came under pressure from sharply lower energy prices, although March Board crush margins remained relatively steady posting a 2-cent gain.
  • The Wheat complex came under pressure from an International Grains Council report stating that weekly wheat prices had dropped in many global nations. Additionally, Ukraine is on track to export its estimated 50 mmt wheat surplus. All three wheat classes posted losses for the day, with Chicago leading the way.
  • To see the updated US 7-day total precipitation forecast, NASA-Grace Drought Indicators for the US and South America, and Brazil’s 1-week precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, and NASA-Grace, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • With carryover weakness from wheat and soybeans, and only minor support from today’s positive ethanol numbers, March corn broke through downside congestion from the past few days and printed a new contract low and fresh closing low at prices not seen since December of 2020.
  • Adding to the pressure in the corn market was word that the Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate of Argentina’s corn crop by 3 mmt to 59 mmt. This is 4 mmt above the USDA’s current forecast of 55 mmt. Additionally, Argentina’s current March – May export prices are below US offers, though Ukraine’s are currently the cheapest on the world market for February.
  • Ethanol production for the week ending February 9 came in at a strong 7.581 million barrels, averaging 1.083 mbbl/day. This represents a 4.8% increase from last week and a 6.8% increase from last year. Estimated corn usage for the week was 107.5 mb, which is well ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s forecast of 5.375 bb.
  • The USDA will hold its annual Ag Outlook Forum Thursday and Friday. Expectations are often for bearish numbers since the board typically uses trendline yields. For this year, the average trade guess for the Board’s 24/25 carryout is 2.493 bb with 91.6 ma planted, versus 2.172 bb from 94.6 ma this year.
  • Showers are expected to be widespread and heavy for much of Brazil by this weekend. The southern areas of Brazil, which is in need of rain the most, is expected to return to a drier pattern next week. In Argentina, heavy rain returned to the area and provided much needed moisture to stabilize the crop.

Above: Front month corn is showing signs of being very oversold and has uncovered support near 425, and any new bullish input could trigger a short covering rally toward the 450 – 460 resistance area. If prices fail to hold above initial 425 support, the next level of support remains near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower to make new lows for the year as pressure from an anticipated large soy crop from South America pressures the market. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well with lower soybean oil pressured by lower crude and heating oil (diesel).
  • This morning, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina increased their estimate for soybean production by 2 mmt to 52 mmt on improved weather following the recent dry spell. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent 50 mmt guess, and many analysts have Brazilian production pegged near 149 mmt, below the USDA’s 157 mmt estimate.
  • No flash sales have been reported this week and weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be on the lower side around 300,000 metric tons. On the positive side, domestic crush demand has been firm, and crush premiums remain profitable enough to incentivize processors.
  • On Thursday, the USDA will begin its annual Outlook Forum and they will release their initial estimates for 24/25. Analysts are expecting that corn acres will be lowered by 3 million acres and that soybean acres will increase by 3.1 million acres to 86.7 ma.

Above: With the failure of 1180 support, it appears that front month soybeans could continue to drift lower towards 1140 – 1145 without fresh bullish input to turn the market around. The market continues to show signs of being oversold which can add support if a reversal happens. Overhead, nearby resistance may come in between 1200 and 1205, with additional resistance around 1220 – 1225.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Chicago Wheat led the charge lower this morning. And while still posting sharp losses for the day, it managed to come back to close near the middle of the daily range. In any case, much of the commodity complex was under pressure today in tandem with the grains. Some of this negativity may be a result of anticipated bearish numbers at the USDA during the Ag Outlook Forum tomorrow and Friday.
  • Also weighing on wheat today in particular was the International Grains Council stating that weekly wheat prices dropped in many nations globally. These include Argentina, Canada, Europe, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine. To boot, Ukraine is reportedly on track to export their entire surplus of 50 mmt of grain before their season ends in June (80 mmt of grain was harvested in 2023). This is despite the infrastructure damage caused by Russian attacks. According to consultancy APK-Inform, the Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 25.2 mmt as of February 9. And, according to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, they are anticipating planting 2% more wheat this spring.
  • According to a Bloomberg analyst survey, 24/25 wheat planted acreage is expected to decline by 2.1 to 47.5 million acres. Additionally, carryout is expected to increase for wheat, corn, and soybeans. Wheat carryout in particular is expected to be at 720 mb, up 62 mb from 23/24. It should be noted that these numbers are separate from what will be released by the USDA at this week’s Outlook Forum.
  • European Union soft wheat exports totaled 18.6 mmt as of February 2. This is down about 8% year on year, compared to the 20.2 mmt last year, according to the European Commission. The top destinations were to north African nations, with Morocco in the lead at 2.67 mmt, followed by Nigeria and then Algeria.
  • As of February 14, the export duty for Russian wheat is said to have increased by 11.8%, from 3,804.6 to 4,058.9 Rubles per mt, according to their Ag Ministry. In June of 2021 the Russian government implemented a “grain damper” mechanism, essentially requiring export duties on wheat, corn, and barley, with the funds used to subsidize ag producers.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been in a congestion pattern bordered between 614-618 on the top and 584 on the bottom. A breakout through the top end could send prices toward the 640 – 650 resistance area, while a downside breakout may find initial support around 573 with more support around 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat broke through nearby downside support of 688 and may continue to drift lower to test the January low of 678 ¾. If the 678 ¾ area fails, the next major support level may come in around 669. Overhead, resistance remains between 710 and 720.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to drift lower, and with the failure of 669 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower toward the next major support level around 595 unless a bullish catalyst enters the scene. Although, prices are trending lower. The market is showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse from fresh bullish input. If that happens, the first level of resistance may come in around 680 – 690.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-13 End of Day: Strong CPI Data and Sharply Higher US Dollar Adds Resistance to Markets

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following two-sided trade that was mostly positive, the corn market gave up early strength to close at the lower end of a narrow 6-cent range. Corn prices were met with resistance from lower wheat and soybeans as they continued to consolidate on a lack of fresh news.
  • Early strength in soybeans faded with weakness from soybean meal on improved weather in South America following Argentina’s recent dry spell.
  • Soybean meal gave up yesterday’s gains as the prospect of increased supplies from Argentina continues to provide overhead resistance to prices. Soybean oil on the other hand posted a bullish reversal and recovered yesterday’s losses.
  • With pressure coming from a sharply higher US Dollar, the wheat complex settled mostly lower except for March Chicago wheat. March Chicago wheat closed unchanged with support coming from another round of bull spreading as traders continue to move short positions from the March to the deferred contracts.
  • The US Dollar advanced to new highs for the move following the release of January’s Consumer Price Index, which increased 0.3% when 0.2% was expected. Equity markets reacted negatively to the news as hopes for the Federal Reserve dropping interest rates in March quickly faded. Pressure from the higher dollar also likely carried over to the commodity markets.
  • To see the updated US 7-day total precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week South American forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy, but quiet corn market on Tuesday as trade was two-sided before pulling higher into the close.  March corn futures gained a ¼ cent on the session, and the trading range was a narrow 6 cents during the day from high to low.
  • Corn prices are consolidating around the 430 level for the March contract. This was the 4th consecutive day trading near this level as the market is looking for news to push prices in either direction.
  • A hotter than anticipated CPI data report this morning help push the US Dollar higher, which likely weighed on commodity prices. The stronger inflation levels have made the market concerned that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for a longer period, tightening money supply.
  • The corn market is likely supported by near-term demand optimism. Weekly export sales have begun to pick up as US corn is competitive on the global market, and export sales have reflected that fact.  This is a key window for US exporters to accumulate sales for shipment later this year. Currently, US export corn sales are running 30% higher than last year’s poor sales pace.

Above: Front month corn is showing signs of being very oversold and has uncovered support near 425, and any new bullish input could trigger a short covering rally toward the 450 – 460 resistance area. If prices fail to hold above initial 425 support, the next level of support remains near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after a session of mixed trade which saw prices higher earlier this morning before fading along with soybean meal. Soybean oil managed a higher close with support from Malaysian palm oil.
  • Price trends in the soybean meal market are a concern to overall soybean prices. Front month March soybean meal failed to hold the key psychological $350/ton level and posted its lowest daily close since March 2022. The prospects of improved Argentina supplies and strong crush totals in the US are pressuring soybean meal futures.
  • Today’s inflation data that was released showed inflation cooling year over year but still above expectations which caused the US Dollar to rally and consequently soybeans and wheat prices to fall along with equity markets that moved sharply lower. The fear is that the Fed will postpone rate cuts that were expected this year.
  • Weather in South America has improved significantly this week after a stretch of dryness in Argentina. 23% of Brazil’s soy crop has reportedly been harvested which is well above last year’s pace of 17%. Many analysts still expect Brazilian production slightly below 150 mmt as early yields have been on the low side.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to be consolidating just above 1180 support and continue to show signs of being very oversold on the weekly charts. If this support level holds, the market’s oversold status should be supportive with some bullish input. Right now, overhead resistance comes in between 1205 and 1210, with additional resistance around 1225. Support below the 1180 area remains between 1140 and 1145.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Apart from March Chicago wheat which settled unchanged, all three US wheat classes posted losses today. Pressure stemmed from a sharply higher US Dollar Index, which is now at the highest level since mid-November. The jump in the dollar can be attributed to today’s CPI data in which consumer prices were said to be up 3.1% compared to the same time last year – which was higher than expected. This also pressured equity markets, and at the time of this writing, the Dow is down over 700 points.
  • Adding to the bearish tone for the wheat market is the fact that prices in both France and Australia are near two-year lows. This is likely a result of stiff competition out of the Black Sea and from Russia in particular.
  • Russia’s Ag Ministry is said to have proposed an increase to the quota on grain exports in 2024 to 28 mmt. The current quota stands at 24 mmt; the changes would apply to wheat, corn, rye, barley and meslin (a wheat / rye hybrid).
  • Texas released data on their winter wheat crop yesterday afternoon. The crop condition was downgraded by 4% to 42% good to excellent. However, the poor to very poor category improved from 20% to 19%. By area planted, Texas is the second largest winter wheat producing state in the US, so the decline in the GTE rating may provide some support.
  • According to France’s Agriculture Ministry, as of February 1, French farmers have planted 6.2 million hectares of winter crops for 2024 harvest. In total that is down 7.5% from last year and 6.1% from the average. Soft wheat in particular comes in at 4.4 million hectares, which is down 7.7% from last year and 7.5% from the average. The decline in that area is largely blamed on weather issues that disrupted fieldwork and planting.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been in a congestion pattern bordered between 614-618 on the top and 584 on the bottom. A breakout through the top end could send prices toward the 640 – 650 resistance area, while a downside breakout may find initial support around 573 with more support around 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat broke through nearby downside support of 688 and may continue to drift lower to test the January low of 678 ¾. If the 678 ¾ area fails, the next major support level may come in around 669. Overhead, resistance remains between 710 and 720.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. For the last six months, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, support may be building in the 670 – 675 area, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to drift lower and is beginning to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices reverse. The breach of the January low indicates that prices may drift further towards 669 support. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices around, overhead resistance may come in around 690.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-12 End of Day: Strong Weekly Export Inspections Lead Soybeans Higher

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With both China and Brazil on holiday for the week, the corn market was dominated by quiet back-and-forth trade in a 5-cent range that garnered support from neighboring soybeans. Although weekly export inspections came in at the upper end of expectations, and remain 31% above last year, they fell short of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s forecast.
  • Strong weekly export inspections helped to rally soybeans with some possible short covering. Export inspections came in at the top end of expectations and well ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA’s goal, though they remain 23% behind last year’s total for the same period.
  • Soybean meal followed through from Friday’s reversal with some likely short covering adding support. Soybean oil also followed through from Friday’s price action, but to the downside as lower heating oil futures (a proxy for diesel fuel) and profit taking from last week’s rally weighed on prices.
  • The wheat complex settled mostly lower with Chicago fractionally mixed, whereas KC and Minneapolis posted small losses. Bull spreading was noted in all three classes as funds continued to roll short positions out of the leading March contract to the deferred. Lower Russian export prices continue to add resistance to the US market.
  • To see the updated US 5-day total precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1-week South American forecast precipitation anomaly, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Quiet day in the corn market, but futures found some footing for the first time in a week. March corn gained 1 ½ cents on the session as overall news was lacking in the corn market.
  • Weekly export inspections were within estimates at 34.6 mb (880,00 mt). Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 677 mb, which is up 31% from last year. The corn market is starting to hit a window where the inspection numbers should and need to increase weekly.
  • Managed funds are still pushing the short side of the market. On last week’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds added 17,593 net short positions to increase their net short position to 297,744 total contracts.
  • Rainfall in Argentina over the weekend has stabilized the crops in many areas. The forecast is staying supportive grain development as adequate moisture stays in the forecast.

Above: The breach of the previous low of 436 puts front month corn at risk of drifting lower without any new bullish input. For now, the next major level of support lies near 415. Should a bullish catalyst enter the scene to move prices higher, overhead resistance may be found between 450 and 460.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 17,593 contracts between January 31 – February 6, bringing their total position to a net short 297,744 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week after a poor showing last week with the WASDE report pressuring prices. Soybean meal ended the day higher, while soybean oil was lower with some possible pressure from lower heating oil.
  • This morning, the USDA reported total soybean export inspections at 48.7 mb for the week ending Thursday, February 8. This was near the higher end of the estimated trade range which likely added support today. Total inspections are now at 1,131 mb for 23/24 which is down 23% from the previous year.
  • Funds hold a large net short position in soybeans and sold an additional 22,053 contracts as of February 6, leaving them with a net short position of 130,300 contracts. With the market oversold and funds so short, some short covering may have taken place today.
  • Over the weekend, Argentina benefited from much needed rain in some of the drier areas, while Brazil received scattered showers as well. Private analysts are still expecting Brazilian soy production to be lower than USDA estimates with many projecting total production around 149 mmt.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to be consolidating just above 1180 support and continue to show signs of being very oversold on the weekly charts. If this support level holds, the market’s oversold status should be supportive with some bullish input. Right now, overhead resistance comes in between 1205 and 1210, with additional resistance around 1225. Support below the 1180 area remains between 1140 and 1145.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 22,053 contracts between January 31 – February 6, bringing their total position to a net short 130,300 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat closed mostly lower in all three classes today, with the exception being March and May Chicago wheat. The former gained less than a penny, while the latter was neutral. Paris milling wheat also closed lower for the session, offering some weakness to the US market. Competitive Russian exports continue to act as the main anchor; their FOB values are said to be around $235 per mt, which is up from last week, but well below the $250 area at the end of December.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 15 mb bring total 23/24 inspections to 430 mb. That is down 18% from last year and current inspections are behind the USDA’s projected pace. On last week’s WASDE report, they left their estimate of 23/24 wheat exports unchanged at 725 mb.
  • Ukraine’s Ag Minister said that their winter wheat acres are down compared to last year, which along with the grain quality and economic issues they are facing may lower production. However, their spring wheat acreage may be higher and potentially reduce that concern.
  • According to the CFTC, as of February 6, the fund short position in Chicago wheat increased by about 3% from the previous data on January 30. The net short went from 64,818 to 66,738 contracts. The net short Kansas City wheat position was virtually unchanged for the same time period at around 33,000 contracts. While over in the Minneapolis wheat, funds covered 1,174 contracts, almost 5%, of their net short positions to bring their net short position to 25,906 contracts.
  • Later this week the USDA will hold their annual Ag Outlook Forum. While the numbers they will give are by no means official estimates, the trade will likely react to them anyways. Last year the forum’s estimate of wheat acreage was 49.5 million, which was in line with the actual 49.6 ma planted.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been in a congestion pattern bordered between 614-618 on the top and 584 on the bottom. A breakout through the top end could send prices toward the 640 – 650 resistance area, while a downside breakout may find initial support around 573 with more support around 556.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,920 contracts between January 31 – February 6, bringing their total position to a net short 66,738 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat broke through nearby downside support of 688 and may continue to drift lower to test the January low of 678 ¾. If the 678 ¾ area fails, the next major support level may come in around 669. Overhead, resistance remains between 710 and 720.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 42 contracts between January 31 – February 6, bringing their total position to a net short 33,397 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. For the last six months, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, support may be building in the 670 – 675 area, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to consolidate with overhead resistance remaining between 710 and 720, and nearby support just under the market at 688. If prices break through nearby support, they may fade and test the January low of 678 ¾. Support below there may come in around 669.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,174 contracts between January 31 – February 6, bringing their total position to a net short 25,906 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-9 End of Day: Markets Close Lower on the Week as Bearish USDA Data Looms Overhead

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • March corn failed to trade above yesterday’s high and reversed lower as it followed through on yesterday’s weakness and posted yet another new contract low and settled below nearby support.
  • With the USDA’s bearish 315 mb carryout and anticipation of a large South American harvest looming, soybeans reversed yesterday’s gains and turned back lower in today’s trade. So far, support around 1180 in the March continues to hold.
  • Soybean oil turned and closed the day lower with traders likely taking profits from this week’s rally after hitting resistance at the 50-day moving average. March meal reversed back higher after posting a fresh 2-year low to close slightly lower. Bull spreading supported the front months versus the deferred.
  • The wheat complex had a mixed close, with all three classes well off their respective highs, and Minneapolis mostly lower. Bull spreading was noted in Chicago and Minneapolis as the front months gained on the deferreds on possible short covering from the funds sizable net short positions.
  • To see the updated US 5-day total precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week Brazil forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower again to end the week as the lack of bullish news kept the sellers active.  March corn placed another round of new contract lows as the futures dropped 4 ¼ cents on the session. For the week, March futures lost 13 ¾ cents and has traded steady or lower for the past seven sessions.
  • The weak price action in the corn and soybean markets make it difficult for buyers to step in the market. March corn has drifted through a key level of support at both 440 and 430 levels. This leaves the door open for additional technical selling next week.
  • Corn prices reflected the negative sentiment of increasing US supplies. Despite the small adjustment in Thursday’s USDA report, corn ending stock still increased by 10 mb. This is the third time in four months that corn ending stocks in the US have increased. The stocks-to-use ratio has been raised to 14.9%, the highest since 2018-19 marketing year.
  • Managed money continues to grow its large short position in the grain markets. Last week, managed funds were short 280,151 contract of corn, and that position likely grew this week with the additional selling pressure. The next Commitment of Traders report will be released on Friday afternoon.
  • With the CONAB lowering anticipated Brazilian corn production to 113 mmt, a big focus will be on the Argentina crop this spring. Expectations are for a record crop near 55 mmt, but recent hot and dry weather has helped support the market. This week, weather forecasts have moderated and turned more friendly to crop production, which has weighed on both corn and soybean futures.

Above: The breach of the previous low of 436 puts front month corn at risk of drifting lower without any new bullish input. For now, the next major level of support lies near 415. Should a bullish catalyst enter the scene to move prices higher, overhead resistance may be found between 450 and 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower today on the heels of yesterday’s bearish WASDE report, which saw US ending stocks increased and Brazilian production not lowered as much as expected. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well, despite gains in crude oil.
  • For the week, March soybeans lost 5 cents, March soybean meal lost $10.00, and March soybean oil gained 2.53 cents. Pressure has come from steady selling by non-commercials, improved Argentinian weather, poor export sales, and anticipation of a large upcoming South American harvest.
  • Yesterday, traders were slightly divided between the estimates over Brazil’s soybean production by the USDA and CONAB. The USDA maintained their position that Brazil would have a larger soy crop at 156 mmt, while CONAB’s estimates were far lower at 149 mmt. Historically, the USDA is typically more accurate, but the numbers had trade questioning the USDA’s accuracy.
  • Also, in yesterday’s WASDE report, soybean export demand was lowered from 1.755 billion bushels to 1.720 bb as China notably looks to South America for the bulk of its purchases. US shipments are currently down 22% from the previous year.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the recent bullish reversal, but so far, support around 1180 remains intact and the market shows signs of being very oversold on the weekly charts. If this support level holds, the market’s oversold status should be supportive. Right now, overhead resistance comes in between 1205 and 1210, with additional resistance around 1225. Support below the 1180 area remains between 1140 and 1145.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed mixed among the three US classes. This is despite a strong reversal off the contract low with a sharply higher close for March Matif wheat. Overall, March Chicago wheat has been in a relatively narrow trading range recently and seems to be limited to the upside around the six dollar level. Spillover pressure from lower corn and soybeans today may have also limited the rally in wheat.
  • Bull spreading was again noted in Chicago wheat futures, in which nearby contracts rallied more strongly compared to deferred contracts. With the funds still net short a sizeable amount of wheat, this may indicate that they are exiting some of their positions in the front months ahead of the potential polar vortex predicted towards the end of this month.  
  • The Indian government is reported to have cut the wheat stockpile limits in half for traders and chain retailers, from 1,000 to 500 mt. Stock limits were also said to be reduced for wheat processors. According to the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, wheat stocking entities will be required to register and update their position each week. This is all said to be in attempt to eliminate the potential for artificial scarcity of the crop.
  • As of February 3, barge shipments on the Mississippi River have increased to 598,000 tons versus 342,000 tons the week prior. Of that total, just 26,000 tons were wheat. However, that is nearly a 770% increase from 3,000 tons as of January 27.
  • According to the US Climate Prediction Center, there is a historical tendency for a La Nina weather pattern to follow a strong El Nino pattern. The current El Nino pattern is forecasted to become neutral between April-June, but could then return to La Nina; there is a 55% chance of this happening according to the CPC. If accurate, this could affect wheat production in the US down the road.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been in a congestion pattern bordered between 614-618 on the top and 584 on the bottom. A breakout through the top end could send prices toward the 640 – 650 resistance area, while a downside breakout may find initial support around 573 with more support around 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat broke through nearby downside support of 688 and may continue to drift lower to test the January low of 678 ¾. If the 678 ¾ area fails, the next major support level may come in around 669. Overhead, resistance remains between 710 and 720.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. For the last six months, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, support may be building in the 670 – 675 area, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to consolidate with overhead resistance remaining between 710 and 720, and nearby support just under the market at 688. If prices break through nearby support, they may fade and test the January low of 678 ¾. Support below there may come in around 669.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-8 End of Day: Beans Higher, Wheat and Corn Lower Following USDA and CONAB Data Dump

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures ended the day slightly lower after digesting a mixed bag of data from the USDA. US ending stocks for corn came in slightly higher than last month at 2.172 billion bushels, while world corn ending stocks came in lower than last month at 322.06 mmt in today’s WASDE report.
  • Soybean futures closed higher today despite a smaller than expected cut to Brazilian soybean production in today’s USDA WASDE report. CONAB cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate this morning down to 149.4 mmt, this compares to today’s USDA Brazilian soybean production estimate at 156 mmt.
  • Soybean oil futures were higher again today, marking their fourth consecutive session of gains, while soybean meal futures were lower on the day.
  • Wheat prices were lower today after the USDA’s WASDE report showed larger than expected US wheat ending stocks. World wheat ending stocks, on the other hand, came in below expectations given increased exports in Ukraine, Australia, and Argentina versus last month’s estimates.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, and the 2-week Brazil forecast precipitation anomaly, courtesy of the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market does show signs of being oversold, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position, which could trigger a short covering rally if bullish input enters the scene. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop, as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 does show signs of being oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene. Given the amount of uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • On a day with a lot of data, corn futures finished lower on the day. March corn lost 1 cent, but again posted a new contract low and low close during the session as the market digested CONAB, USDA and weekly export information.
  • The USDA raised the U.S. corn carryout by 10 mb to 2.172 billion bushels by making a small reduction of 10 mb to the industrial usage of corn. This carryout increase was above market expectations, which were looking for a small decrease month over month.
  • Regarding South American production, the USDA made minimal changes to their Brazil and Argentina corn production forecasts. The USDA left Argentina unchanged at a projected crop of 55 MMT from last month, but lowered the Brazil forecast by 3MMT to 124 MMT.
  • The Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released their month production numbers for corn this morning. CONAB dropped their corn production forecast to 113.7 MMT, down from 117.6 in January. The USDA is at 124 MMT. CONAB lowered their demand forecast and export projections to reflect a possible increase in total corn carryout at the end of the market year, despite the reduced production.
  • Weekly export sales for corn were near the top end of expectations. Last week, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.219 MMT (48.0 mb). Total sales commitments are reaching 1.374 billion bushels, up 30% from last year. USDA announced a flash export sale of 200,000 MT (7.1 mb) of corn to Columbia this morning. This was the second announce flash sale this week, as the U.S. corn export window is open and available.

Above: The breach of the previous low of 436 puts front month corn at risk of drifting lower without any new bullish input. For now, the next major level of support lies near 415. Should a bullish catalyst enter the scene to move prices higher, overhead resistance may be found between 450 and 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. In early January, front month soybeans broke through the bottom side of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since mid-October. As South American weather forecasts improved, the potential for a reduction in the record large global carryout also lessened, bringing prices down toward the 1180 support level. For now, 1180 support appears to be holding, and though the weak price action has been disappointing, time remains in the South American growing season, and the old crop marketing year, for unforeseen changes to push prices back higher.  Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. After the Nov ’24 contract broke through the bottom side of the 1233 – 1320 range, prices continued to retreat as South American weather conditions improved. Even though Nov ’24 runs similar downside risks as the front month contracts, which could press new crop prices toward 1150 or possibly the May ’23 low near 1115, plenty of time remains to market this crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Additionally, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs, at which point Grain Market Insider may consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after a day of volatile trade, which saw March soybeans as low as $13.80-1/2. The WASDE report was relatively bearish, but the data that was released by the USDA was in conflict with earlier data released by Brazil’s CONAB. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was higher, along with higher crude oil.
  • Today, the USDA released its WASDE report, which had a bearish tone for soybeans. The US carryout for 23/24 was increased to 315 mb from 280 mb due to a decrease in exports. Brazilian soybean production was only lowered to 156 mmt from 157 mmt last month when the average trade guess was closer to 153 mmt. Argentinian production was unchanged at 50.0 mmt.
  • Brazil’s CONAB also released estimates for production, but they were in stark contrast with the USDA’s estimates with 149.40 mmt of soybeans expected and 113.70 mmt of corn expected. Traders seemed unsure about which agency was correct, which caused volatile trade.
  • Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans, with sales below the lowest range of estimates at 12.5 mb for 23/24. This was down 25% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 60.8 mb last week were well above the 22.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Mexico.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the recent bullish reversal, but so far, support around 1180 remains intact and the market shows signs of being very oversold on the weekly charts. If this support level holds, the market’s oversold status should be supportive. Right now, overhead resistance comes in between 1205 and 1210, with additional resistance around 1225. Support below the 1180 area remains between 1140 and 1145.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes posted double digit losses today. The WASDE report was relatively neutral when it came to the wheat numbers, but futures were under pressure even before the data was released. This is likely a result of continued cheapness of Russian offerings, along with some meteorologists predicting that the polar vortex may not dip into the US at the end of the month, potentially eliminating the threat of winterkill.
  • On today’s report, the USDA projected US wheat carryout at 658 mb, up from the average trade guess of 649 mb and the January estimate of 648 mb. In terms of global numbers, wheat ending stocks were projected at 259.4 mmt, down just slightly from an average pre-report estimate of 260.1 mmt and a 260.0 mmt estimate in January.
  • As far as additional data, total wheat use was estimated at 1.869 bb, down from 1.879 bb last month. Globally, world wheat production was pegged at 785.74 mmt, up from last month’s estimate of 784.91 mmt. Other notable figures include Australian production at 25.5 mmt, unchanged from last month, and Ukraine exports at 15.0 mmt vs 14.0 mmt in January. Additionally, Russian exports were kept the same at 51.0 mmt.  
  • The USDA also reported weekly export sales today and said there was an increase of 13.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.6 mb were behind the pace needed of 17.2 mb every week to meet the USDA’s goal of 725 mb. On today’s report, that export estimate was unchanged from last month.
  • According to their Bureau of Meteorology, Australia had their warmest winter on record. Additionally, it was their eighth warmest year on record overall. Furthermore, as claimed by Copernicus, Europe’s Earth observation agency, globally 2023 was the hottest year on record.
  • Statistics Canada also released data today. They said that as of December 31, 2023, wheat stocks fell because of lower production, down 10.3% year over year at 20.7 mmt. Moreover, wheat exports at 10.6 mmt were up 2.7%, which surpassed the five-year average.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since early December, the July ’24 contract has traded mostly sideways to slightly lower after its brief short covering runup on Chinese buying. Although China has since been absent from the US wheat export market, prices appear to have found support above 585, and managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat has been in a congestion pattern bordered between 614-618 on the top and 584 on the bottom. A breakout through the top end could send prices toward the 640 – 650 resistance area, while a downside breakout may find initial support around 573 with more support around 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since last fall, front month KC wheat has been mostly rangebound between 678 up top and the 590 area down below. The latter has held as support for the past three months. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering support lies just below the market and managed funds continue to carry a sizable short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: KC wheat continues to consolidate just below the 50-day moving average, which is acting as mild resistance to the upside. If the market does breakout to the upside, it may encounter additional resistance near the recent high of 641. To the downside, the next major support level remains between 595 and 575.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. For the last six months, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, support may be building in the 670 – 675 area, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales around 725 – 750.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sept ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sept ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers a short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat, and in November recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position as July ’24 KC wheat showed signs of support around 630. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. Grain Market Insider remains prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments and consider recommending additional sales if prices make a modest retracement of the 2022 highs.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to consolidate with overhead resistance remaining between 710 and 720, and nearby support just under the market at 688. If prices break through nearby support, they may fade and test the January low of 678 ¾. Support below there may come in around 669.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US Drought Monitor as of February 6, 2024

Above: Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation anomaly courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.