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9-17 End of Day: Grains End Lower Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures retreated from yesterday’s highs on Wednesday as weekly ethanol production slipped to a 17-week low.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower, giving back most of Tuesday’s gains but managed to hold above recent lows.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower in sympathy with corn and soybeans, despite strength in Paris milling wheat and another drop in the U.S. Dollar Index to its lowest since early 2022.

  • To see the updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded lower Wednesday as biofuel concerns and caution ahead of the FOMC rate decision kept buyers sidelined.

  • The EPA has opened a discussion window regarding the latest allocation of blending exemptions. This built uncertainty in possible usage of biofuel to meet blending requirements. The lack of clarity pressured both the corn and soybean oil market on the session.

  • The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, with two more possible by year-end. The softer stance pressured the U.S. dollar, supportive for corn and commodities; the dollar has fallen a full point over the past three sessions.

  • Weekly ethanol production was softer than last week at 310 million gallons/day. The total was still 0.6% higher than last year. Production was the lowest in 17 weeks and below expectations. A total of 510 mb of corn was used last week in the production of ethanol. Overall ethanol stocks remain low at 22.6 million barrels.

  • The late-September forecast calls for above-normal temps across most of the Corn Belt, with normal to below-normal precipitation—favorable for harvest progress.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, taking out most of yesterday’s gains but did not take out its low and also found support once again at the 20-day moving average. November soybeans lost 6 cents to $10.43-3/4 and March lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.78. October soybean meal lost $1.90 to $283.90 and October soybean oil led the complex lower losing 1.45 cents to 51.24 cents.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 7.53 mmt in the month of September, which would compare to 7.43 mmt the previous month. Brazilian crush estimates have been raised by 0.7% to 58.5 mmt for 2025 according to ANEC.

  • President Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi on Friday regarding TikTok and broader trade issues. While China hasn’t bought U.S. soybeans since January 22, 2025, traders speculate they may step in if a deal materializes and ahead of a potentially smaller U.S. crop.

  • New crop soybean sales to other countries apart from China have been the best since 2018-2019, but this has not been enough to offset the lack of Chinese business. Brazilian beans are the most expensive in the world right now, but the additional 23% tariff that China has placed on U.S. beans has made ours the most expensive.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market closed lower in sympathy with corn and soybeans. The losses come despite a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures and another move lower for the U.S. Dollar Index, which hit the lowest level today since early 2022. The December wheat contracts lost 5-3/4 cents in Chicago to 528-1/4, 7-1/4 cents in Kansas City to 516-1/4, and 2-1/2 cents in MIAX to 574.

  • Good rains fell over parts of the U.S. Southern Plains over the past 24 hours, which should help to recharge soil moisture for winter wheat that is currently being planted.

  • Statistics Canada raised its 2025 all-wheat production estimate by 700,000 mt to 36.6 mmt (+1.9% vs 2024), in line with USDA’s recent increase to 36.0 mmt.

  • Russia’s ag ministry sharply raised its wheat export tax nearly 300% to 495.9 Rubles/mt for September 17–23, part of the grain damper mechanism introduced in 2021 to subsidize producers.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 34% year over year, totaling 3.78 mmt as of September 14. This compares with 5.73 mmt shipped during a similar timeframe last year. Saudi Arabia was the largest importer at 569,000 mt, followed by smaller amounts from Jordan and Morocco.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

From ag-wx.com

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9-16 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher as U.S. Corn and Soybean Harvest Begins

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures recover Monday’s losses as the U.S. begins harvest and yield reports come in. Prices have returned to test strong technical resistance at the July 7 price gap.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures trade higher as the market adopts an optimistic view on coming U.S. – China trade discussions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures close with bullish undertones as flour millers in Asia have ramped up imports of U.S. wheat.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day accumulated precipitation forecast, as well as 7-day accumulated precipitation and temperature anomalies for South America, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers came back into the corn market as corn futures finished with moderately strong gains. Fund short covering and technical buying pushed the December corn market to its highest intraday levels since July 3 before settling into the close. December con gained 6 ¼ cents to 429 ½, and March added 6 cents to 447.

  • The December corn contract is looking to fill the trading gap on the December chart going back to July 3. The top of the gap is 432 ¾ cents. This area is acting as a strong point of resistance.  Closing this trading gap could allow prices to push higher to challenge the 440 level.

  • Corn harvest has begun in the US. Weekly crop progress reports stated that corn harvest was 7% complete as of September 14.  This is 2% behind the five-year average. The corn market will be monitoring yield results as the eastern and southern corn belt saw some of the driest conditions in over 100 years in August, which likely limited the final yield on the corn crop.

  • Late Tuesday, the EPA released a proposal addressing the reallocation of biofuel blending obligations that were recently waived for small oil refineries. The EPA will open a comment period on two plans for reallocating 100% or 50% of the biofuel blending responsibilities waived under the small refinery exemption program.

  • Extended forecast into the end of September is expected to be above normal for most areas of the corn belt, with precipitation to be normal to below normal. This forecast should help promote harvest of the corn crop.

Corn percent mature (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher taking back all of yesterday’s losses, posting the highest close since the end of last month. November soybeans gained 7 cents to $10.49-3/4 while March gained 7-3/4 cents to $10.84-1/4. October soybean meal gained $0.60 to $285.80 and October bean oil gained 0.93 cents to 52.69 cents.

  • Support today came from hope that this Friday when President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi, agricultural exports will be included in the deal for TikTok. While China has not purchased US soybeans since January 22, 2025, they may step in thinking that this year’s crop will be small to secure a cheaper price.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean crop conditions fall by one point to 63% good to excellent which compared to 64% a year ago. 41% of the crop has dropped leaves which is above the 5-year average of 40% and 5% is harvested compared the to 5-year average of 3% at this time.

  • New crop soybean sales to other countries apart from China have been the best since 2018-2019, but this has not been enough to offset the lack of Chinese business. Brazilian beans are the most expensive in the world right now, but the additional 23% tariff that China has placed on US beans has made ours the most expensive.

Soybeans percent dropping leaves (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with a gain of 9 cents for December Chicago futures. Meanwhile, Dec Kansas City was up 9-1/2 at 523-1/2, and MIAX gained 4-3/4 cents to 576-1/2. Support came from a drop in the US Dollar Index to the lowest level since the start of July. Additionally, purchases in the past week by Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Indonesia all added some bullish sentiment.

  • Wheat futures traded higher for the fourth consecutive session.  This is the longest winning streak in the December Chicago wheat contract going back to November 15, 2024.

  • According to yesterday’s crop progress report, the US winter wheat crop is now 11% planted, which falls just short of last year and the five-year average, both at 13%. Additionally, the spring wheat crop is 94% harvested, compared to 91% last year and 92% on average.

  • The French soft wheat crop is now estimated at 33.3 mmt, an increase of 0.2 mmt from the August forecast. This represents a 30% year over year increase – last year’s production was historically low. The new estimate is also 4.7% above the five-year average.

  • Asian millers have reportedly purchased more US wheat due to competitive prices and delays in Black Sea shipping. Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have all secured US wheat deals with soft wheat sold at $270 per ton and hard red sold at $275 per ton. Following this, the USDA has raised its forecast for US wheat exports for the 25/26 marketing year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: U.S. 7-day forecasted total precipitation, courtesy of ag-wx.com

Above: South America 7-day forecasted total rainfall, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: South America 7-day maximum temperature anomaly, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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9-15 End of Day: Grains Finish Mixed as the Market Contemplates the Fundamental Outlook

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures retrace, despite strong export inspections, as the market continues to digest the September WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures give back a portion of Friday’s gains as concerns of export demand weigh on the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures close in a mixed fashion despite export inspections running ahead of pace.

  • To see the updated U.S. 5-day temperature anomaly as well as the Brazil and Argentina average temperatures, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures retreated Monday, with December down 6 ¾ to 423 ¼ and March off 6 ¼ to 441, as the market continued digesting Friday’s USDA report.

  • In principle, the USDA report on Friday was still holding a bearish tone, despite the bullish reaction in prices. The addition of 1.5 million acres and yield still at a record of 186.7 bu/a will have the U.S. producing a record corn crop. Despite the strong export demand, the supply side of the balance sheet will stay heavy as harvest progresses.

  • Managed funds grew their net short position in the corn market on last week’s Commitment of Traders. Managed funds sold a net 8,400 contract and are still positioned in a net short of 99,929 contracts. Fund money flow likely reduced that position with the buying strength on Friday last week.

  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Unknown destinations bought 148,971 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year (2025-26). This was the first flash sale of corn since September 4.

  • Weekly export inspections were strong for the week ending September 11. For that week, the USDA reported inspections at 1.512 MMT (59.5 mb). This total was above expectations, and shipments for the start of the marketing year, September 1, are 106% over last year.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,442 contracts between September 2 – September 9, bringing their total position to a net short 99,929 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving back a portion of Friday’s gains. November soybeans lost 3-1/2 cents to close at $10.42-3/4 and March soybeans lost 3-3/4 cents to $10.76-1/2. October soybean meal lost $2.40 to $285.20 and October soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to close at 51.76 cents.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report was supportive and above trade estimates with inspections for 25/26 totaling 29.6 million bushels. This puts total inspections at 39 mb, up 43% from the previous year. It should be noted that the USDA recently reported a sale to China two weeks ago, but this was an error as the purchase was actually made in January.

  • Friday’s WASDE report was bearish with yield estimates revised slightly lower to 53.5 bpa but was above the average trade guess of 53.3 bpa. Soybean planted acreage was revised higher by 200,000 acres and export demand was revised slightly lower. Ending stocks for 25/26 were estimated at 300 mb, which was up from last month’s estimate of 290 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 26,678 contracts, increasing their net short position to 14,714 contracts. They sold 12,465 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 3,662 contracts and bought back 3,737 contracts of meal, leaving them short 85,785 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 26,678 contracts between September 2 – September 9, bringing their total position to a net short 14,714 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed in mixed fashion. December Chicago was up 1-1/2 cents to 525, MIAX was unchanged at 571-3/4, and Kansas City declined 3/4 cent to 514. All things considered, wheat held its ground fairly well today, after Friday’s WASDE report indicated that major global wheat producers had harvest estimates revised their higher by 9.3 mmt (in total) compared to the August report.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 27.7 mb were above expectations, bringing the 25/26 inspections total to 289 mb, up 12% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Currently, they are forecasting 25/26 exports at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $225/mt on a FOB basis, down $3 from the week before. These declining offers out of Russia have helped to keep pressure on US wheat prices.

  • In a report from Reuters, Russia is attempting to avoid sanctions by bartering. Reportedly, Chinese cars were traded for Russian wheat. It is not clear how much of either product was exchanged, or what the values of the grain and cars were.

  • Ukrainian grain exports have reached 5.2 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 40% decline from the 8.6 mmt shipped in a similar timeframe last year. Of the total, wheat accounted for 3.55 mmt, which is down 24% year over year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,451 contracts between September 2 – September 9, bringing their total position to a net short 92,394 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,656 contracts between September 2 – September 9, bringing their total position to a net short 53,025 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 95 contracts between September 2 – September 9, bringing their total position to a net short 24,399 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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9-12 End of Day: Grains Finish Higher Following September WADSE Release

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures continued higher Friday following reduced ending stocks projections in the WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans futures finished higher Friday, supported by WASDE projections and export shipments to China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures finished with minimal gains despite the WASDE report reducing ending stocks.

  • To see the updated U.S. 6-10 day Temperature outlook as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A positive reaction to the USDA Crop Production report helped push the corn to strong gains on Friday’s session. December corn gains 10 ¼ cents to close at 430, and March corn added 10 cents to 447 ¼. Friday’s close was the highest close on Dec corn since July 18. September corn closed its trading life today, settled at 399 on final trades.

  • The USDA released the September WASDE on Friday afternoon. The USDA increased planted acres by 1.5 million acres to 98.7 million acres and also lifted the harvested total to 90 million acres. The acre adjustment was a surprise to the market for the second straight month after adding 2.5 million acres on the August report.

  • The yield projection was being closely watched as dry weather has limited the finish on this year’s corn crop.  The USDA lowered the yield forecast by 2.0 bu/a to 186.7 bu/a., down from 188.7 in the August report.

  • With the combination of increased acres, but reduced yield, the USDA calculated total production at 16.814 billion bushels, up 73 million from last month. The USDA raised corn exports by 100 mb for the marketing year. The carryout projection for 2025-26 was lowered by 7 mb to 2.110 BB, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.1%,

  • Ending stocks above 2.0 billion are considered heavy, but buyers stepped into the market believing that the yield projection will continue to decrease. With the current demand strength, the carryout number could trend lower in reports down the road, which is friendly to the corn market.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher in volatile trade and in defiance of a relatively bearish WASDE report. November soybeans gained 12-3/4 cents to $10.46-1/4 while March gained 12-1/4 cents to $10.80-1/4. October soybean meal was up $1.50 to $287.60 and October soybean oil gained 0.59 cents to 51.67 cents.

  • Today’s WASDE report was bearish with yield estimates revised slightly lower to 53.5 bpa but was above the average trade guess of 53.3 bpa. Soybean planted acreage was revised higher by 200,000 acres and export demand was revised slightly lower. Ending stocks for 25/26 were estimated at 300 mb, which was up from last month’s guess of 290 mb.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 22,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/2026 marketing year.

  • China has booked nearly all of its October soybean needs and about 15% of November with higher-priced Brazilian supplies. If a U.S.-China trade deal emerges soon, their purchases of U.S. soybeans could be delayed, creating potential logistical bottlenecks domestically.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was able to bounce back from early struggles to finish higher on the day. KC led the way higher, with the December contract up 3-1/4 to $5.13-¼, Chicago was 00-1/2 higher to $5.21-3/4, MIAX closed 00-1/4 to $5.71-3/4.

  • Today’s WASDE report showed US wheat supplies unchanged while exports were higher and ending stocks were lowered. Exports increased 25 mb to 900 mb while ending stocks were lowered by 25 mb to 844 mb.

  • World wheat supplies were up 9 mt to 1,078.6 mt due to increased production estimates globally. Russia’s wheat production was bumped 1.9 mt higher to 140.1 mt based on harvest results. Increased global production could put some downside pressure on domestic wheat prices.

  • Conab cut their Brazilian wheat production forecast to 7.54 mmt, down from the groups previous estimate of 7.81 mmt.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 6 to 10-day temperate outlook courtesy of NOAA.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

9-11 End of Day: Short Covering Leads Grains Higher Ahead of WASDE Report Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures finished higher Thursday, supported by firm export demand ahead of Friday’s WASDE.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans rallied off support Thursday, closing higher ahead of Friday’s WASDE.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher Thursday, supported by export commitments running ahead of last year’s pace.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended Thursday with moderate gains, supported by firm demand tone and short covering ahead of Friday’s WASDE. December corn gained 2 ¾ to 419 ¾ and March added 2 ¾ to 437 ¼.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending September 4, the USDA reported new sales of 21.3 mb for the 2025-26 crop year. In addition, a total of 41.2 mb was rolled from the 2024-25 marketing year into the new marketing year. Total corn commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year are at 890 mb, up 69% from last year.

  • The Brazil ag agency, CONAB, released their September crop production forecast on Thursday morning. The agency raised their corn production estimate for the 2024-25 marketing year to a record 139.7 MMT, up 2.7 MMT from last month and over 24 MMT above last year.

  • USDA’s drought monitor reported expanding dryness across the eastern and southern Corn Belt, with 13% of corn acres now in drought versus 9% last week—likely capping production potential this fall.

  • USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

    • Notes:

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures bounced off of support on Thursday ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report. November soybeans added 8-3/4 cents to close at 1034. October soybean meal added 2.60 to close at 286.10 and October soybean oil gained 0.61 cents to close at 51.08 cents.

  • Soybean oil futures extended gains Thursday, following Wednesday’s rumors that the Trump administration may require large crude oil refineries to cover 50% of waived small-blender obligations. A decision isn’t expected until late October.

  • China has booked nearly all of its October soybean needs and about 15% of November with higher-priced Brazilian supplies. If a U.S.-China trade deal emerges soon, their purchases of U.S. soybeans could be delayed, creating potential logistical bottlenecks domestically.

  • WASDE estimates project 2025/26 ending stocks steady to slightly lower at 287 mb, with 2024/25 stocks seen unchanged. Yield is pegged 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2, while USDA may trim export demand to reflect weak Chinese buying.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session higher across all three classes, led by Chicago contracts. December Chi gained 6-1/2 cents to 521-1/2, while KC was up 3 at 510, and MIAX was up 2 at 571-1/2. Higher equity markets today may have spilled over some positive influence to commodities, with most of the grain complex positing higher closes.

  • USDA reported 11.2 mb in 2025/26 wheat export sales, with no new 2026/27 sales. Weekly shipments totaled 13.1 mb, below the 16.7 mb pace needed to reach the 875 mb export goal. Total 2025/26 commitments stand at 467 mb, up 19% from last year.

  • The average pre-report estimate for U.S. 25/26 wheat carryout comes in at 862 mb, down from 869 mb in August. However, world ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. For 24/25 the trade is looking for 263.1 mmt vs 262.7 mmt last month, and for 25/26 is looking for 260.8 mmt vs 260.1 mmt. U.S. production numbers will be updated at the end of the month on the Small Grains Summary report.

  • In an update from CONAB, the Brazilian wheat production forecast was decreased from 7.8 mmt to 7.54 mmt. This is largely due to a smaller planted area, and is despite expectations for improved yields.

  • As of September 9, USDA reported spring wheat acres in drought unchanged at 13%. Winter wheat drought coverage rose to 38%, up 4% on the week but still well below 57% at this time last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 602.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 602.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

|

9-10 End of Day: Grains Drift Lower Again on Wednesday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn traded lower on Wednesday. Trading was quiet as the market drifted lower ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans fell for a second session. Concerns over the lack of Chinese purchases continue to pressure prices, offsetting support from dry forecasts and yield risks heading into Friday’s USDA report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures slid lower again on Wednesday. A lack of supportive news and rising global crop estimates continue to cap rallies.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The target to exit half of the December 420 put position has been removed.

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished with mild losses for the second straight session on Wednesday. Very quiet news and anticipation of Friday’s USDA report have helped the corn market to drift lower with narrow trading ranges in the past couple of sessions. December corn lost 2 ¾ cents to 417 and March corn slipped 3 cents to 434 ½.

  • Ethanol output hit a 12-week high. For the week ending Sept. 5, average daily production was 1.105 million barrels — the highest ever for this week of the year. Roughly 110 mb of corn was used in production.

  • Biofuels concerns have trickled into the market again on Wednesday as the White House is looking at limiting the amount of blending mandates that large oil companies will need to cover small refineries regarding blending credits. A small than anticipated plan could impact corn demand for biofuels. The lack of clarity regarding policy and recent negative tone may help limit gains in the corn market.

  • USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B target to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day with the November soybeans down 6 cents to $10.25-1/4 while March lost 5 cents to $10.61. October soybean meal was down $4.20 to $283.50 and October soybean oil gained 0.54 cents to 50.47 cents.

  • The soybean market is trying to balance the demand and the potentially tightening supply narrative in the market. Increased news media regarding the lack of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans is trying to outweigh the dry weather forecast and a shrinking potential crop going into Friday’s USDA Report

  • Policy uncertainty is adding headwinds. The White House is reviewing a plan that would shift some waived blending obligations onto major oil companies, a move that could limit soybean oil’s role in biodiesel.

  • Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa. There is a possibility that the USDA lowers export demand to account for the lack of Chinese purchases.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures were down again today, closing 5-1/4 cents lower in December Chicago to 515, while Kansas City lost 3-1/4 cents to 507, and MIAX was down 4-1/2 cents at 569-1/2. A general lack of fresh friendly news, as well as rising Russian and southern hemisphere crop production estimates have been limiting upside for wheat.  

  • IKAR increased their estimate of Russian wheat production from 86 mmt to 87 mmt, which is now closer in line with SovEcon’s 87.2 mmt forecast. In addition, IKAR raised their Russian wheat export estimate by 1 mmt to 44 mmt.

  • This morning, news outlets reported that Poland shot down Russian drones that entered their airspace. This has raised concern about broader conflict developing in the region, as Poland is a NATO member. However, Poland’s prime minister indicated that while this was a provocation, they are not likely on the brink of war.

  • LSEG commodities research has kept their estimate of Canadian 25/26 wheat production unchanged from their last estimate at 35.0 mmt. And while they also reported that although harvest is going well, rains coming in about 5-10 days could slow the current pace.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 605.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 605.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan A target of 590 against December 2025 futures has been added.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 647 target has been lowered to 642.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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9-9 End of Day: Grains Slide Slightly Awaiting USDA Data Friday

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn sank slightly lower Tuesday as prices continue to consolidate ahead of the USDA WASDE report Friday.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans slipped in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s WASDE.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by weakness in corn and soybeans, softer Paris milling wheat, and firmer U.S. Dollar Index.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • The target to exit half of the December 420 put position has been removed.

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures eased slightly on a quiet news day as the market positioned ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE. December fell 2 cents to 419 ¾, while March slipped 2 cents to 437 ¾.

  • Demand remains supportive but may be slowing, with higher prices limiting export business. USDA hasn’t reported a flash export sale since August 22.

  • Grain markets may be looking to add some weather premium. Long-range forecasts point to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt into mid-September. The ongoing dry conditions could limit final yield totals this fall.

  • Harvest pressure is beginning to surface as U.S. corn harvest reached 4% complete. A record crop outlook and fresh supplies could weigh on prices.

  • USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B target to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s WASDE report and a lack of fresh news. November soybeans lost 2-1/2 cents to $10.31-1/4 while March soybeans lost 2 cents to $10.66. October soybean meal gained $5.80 to $287.70 and October soybean oil lost 1.05 cents to 49.93 cents.

  • Crop ratings edged lower, with soybeans at 64% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week but 1 point above expectations. Pod-setting is 97% complete and 21% of the crop is dropping leaves, both in line with average pace.

  • StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb, and the USDA will update its estimates this Friday.

  • Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa. There is a possibility that the USDA lowers export demand to account for the lack of Chinese purchases.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by weakness in corn and soybeans, softer Paris milling wheat, and firmer U.S. Dollar Index. Russian export values fell another $2–$4, adding to U.S. market pressure. December KC led losses, down 7 cents to 510 ¼, while Chicago fell 3 ½ to 520 ¼ and MIAX lost 2 ¾ to 574.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, spring wheat harvest is 85% complete as of September 7. This is up 2% from last year’s pace, and 1% from the five-year average. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is now 5% planted, in line with last year and 1% below the five-year average.

  • Data from Statistics Canada showed their all-wheat stocks at 4.112 mmt. This fell under expectations for 4.4 mmt and compares with last year’s 4.6 mmt figure. The wheat market seemed to largely ignore this, however, as is evident by the lower trade.

  • The economy ministry of Ukraine has stated that their nation intends to up the winter grain planted area for 2026 to 5.43 million hectares. This compares with 5.24 million in 2025. Winter wheat sowing on its own may rise from 4.5 to 4.78 million hectares.

  • Russia’s harvest continues to advance, with 105 mmt of grain collected. SovEcon raised its wheat production outlook to 86.1 mmt from 85.4, citing better yields in the Volga Valley.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 605.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 605.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan A target of 590 against December 2025 futures has been added.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 647 target has been lowered to 642.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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9-8 End of Day: Grains Add Weather Premium to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week higher as markets added weather premium on a warmer and drier than normal outlook over the next two weeks.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans started the week higher as weekend frost in the northern Corn Belt likely cut short grain fill in late-developing soybeans.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted gains across all three classes Monday, supported by strong export inspections and a weaker U.S. dollar.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week higher, rallying off early session lows. December gained 3 ¾ cents to 421 ¾, while March added 3 cents to 439 ½, supported by demand and weather concerns.

  • USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending September 4, a total of 56.8 mb were inspected for shipment. Of that total, 25.6 mb were for the 2025-26 marketing year as the old marketing year closed on August 31. 

  • Grain markets are adding weather premium as long-range forecasts point to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt into mid-September.

  • Managed hedged funds reduced their net short position in the corn market for the third consecutive week. This is the longest “buying” streak since January as the funds reduced their net short position by nearly 19,000 contracts but remain short 91,000 total contracts.

  • Brazil’s growing ethanol industry could be long term supportive of the US corn export market. Though down the road, A Brazilian ethanol firm announced plans to build at least 5 ethanol plants in Mato Grasso. The increased domestic usage should limit additional bushels to the export market.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 19,199 contracts between August 26 – September 2, bringing their total position to a net short 91,487 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B target to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to start the week as futures slowly climbed higher throughout the day. November soybeans gained 6-3/4 cents to $10.33-3/4 while March gained 7-1/4 cents to $10.68. Soybeans bounced off support at the 50-day moving average again today. October soybean meal gained $1.40 to $281.90 while October soybean oil gained 0.17 cents to 50.98 cents.

  • China’s August soybean imports hit a record 12.28 mmt, up 1.2% from last year and above expectations as crushers front-loaded purchases amid stalled U.S.-China trade talks.

  • StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb, and the USDA will update its estimates this Friday.

  • Patchy frost likely hit northern U.S. soybean areas over the weekend, while ongoing and forecasted dryness across the core I-states is adding back weather premium to the market.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,854 contracts which reduced their net long position to 11,964 contracts. They sold 14,542 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 16,127 contracts and sold 27,811 contracts of meal leaving them short 89,522 contracts.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, September 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,854 contracts between August 26 – September 2, bringing their total position to a net long 11,964 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures posted gains across all three classes today, supported by positive export inspection data and a weaker U.S. dollar. December wheat led the way, closing up 4.4 cents at 523 3/4.

  • Wheat export inspections this week totaled 16 mb, in line with trade expectations and sufficient to meet the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s annual forecast. Year-to-date inspections stand at 260 mb, which is 10% above the seasonal average.

  • Fundamentals remain bearish, with ample EU and Black Sea supplies capping rallies. APK-Inform raised Ukraine’s wheat crop estimate to 21.9 mmt (from 19.7) and exports to 15.3 mmt (from 13.9), adding to global pressure.

  • Wheat prices in Russia and the EU remain weak, adding to global market pressure. APK-Inform raised Ukraine’s wheat production estimate to 21.9 million metric tons, up from 19.7 million last month. Export projections were also increased, with Ukraine now expected to ship 15.3 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 13.9 million.

  • Wet weather across the Plains is expected to slow early planting progress, as the spring wheat harvest nears completion at approximately 80%. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting is just slightly behind the seasonal average.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 605.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 605.75.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 356 contracts between August 26 – September 2, bringing their total position to a net short 81,943 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan A target of 590 against December 2025 futures has been added.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 647 target has been lowered to 642.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,000 contracts between August 26 – September 2, bringing their total position to a net short 54,681 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, September 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,699 contracts between August 26 – September 2, bringing their total position to a net short 24,494 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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9-5 End of Day: Corn Supported by Exports, Soybeans Retreat on China Concerns, Wheat Holds Near Support

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn ended the week slightly lower, but the market remains well-supported by strong export demand and expectations of a potential production cut in next week’s WASDE report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower, retreating from morning highs as weakness in soybean oil and concerns over limited Chinese buying weighed on the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mostly lower despite a weaker U.S. Dollar. Prices are holding near key support levels, with strong export demand providing underlying support.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A choppy trading session ended the week as corn futures faded off session highs to finish softer on the day. End of week pressure outweighed another strong week of export sales during the day. September corn futures closed ¾ cents lower to 399, and December corn lost 1 ¾ to 418. For the week, December corn lost 2 ¼ cents.

  • Weekly export sales remain very strong for the 2025-26 marketing year. For the week ending August 28, new crop corn sales totaled 2.117 MMT (83.3 mb), near the top end of expectations. Mexico remained the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Old crop sales saw cancellations of 11.1 MB as the end of the marketing year approached.

  • The next USDA WASDE report will be released next Friday, September 12. The market will be seeing private analyst estimates for this corn yield and production. SP Global released a yield estimate of 189.1 bu/acre this afternoon, higher than the 188.8 forecast by the USDA in August. The corn market is still preparing for a large crop to be in the pipeline this fall.

  • The White House announced this morning plans to review the biofuel waiver process. The use of refinery exemptions and the number granted can impact corn demand for ethanol. Decisions on the biofuel waiver system could impact mandates for 2026-27.

  • Below normal temperatures are forecasted for the northern Corn Belt this weekend as overnight low temperatures could push toward the freezing mark. If some frost was to occur, it could limit the final development of the corn and soybean crops in those areas.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan B target to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, fading from earlier morning highs as a result of lower soybean oil and further concerns over the lack of China as a buyer. November soybeans lost 6 cents to $10.27, while March soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.60-3/4. October soybean meal gained $0.40 to $280.50, and October soybean oil lost 0.70 cents to 50.81 cents as it followed crude oil lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was middle of the road for soybeans with a net reduction of 0.9 million bushels of export sales for 24/25 but an increase of 30.1 mb for the 25/26 marketing year. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Mexico, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 16.8 million bushels were below the 20.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.

  • StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb, and the USDA will update its estimates next Friday.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 27-1/2 cents and are trading at support levels, while March soybeans lost 26-1/4 cents. October soybean meal lost $2.90 for the week, and October soybean oil lost 0.89 cents. A bullish WASDE report could cause funds to short cover next week.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade and despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat closed lower. The exceptions were deferred Chicago contracts – July ’26 was neutral and December ’26 was 1/4 cent higher. As for December 2025 contracts, Chicago lost 1/4 cent at 519-1/4, Kansas City was down 1 cent to 505-1/4, and MIAX closed 4-1/4 cents lower at 566.

  • Weekly export sales, which were delayed until today, showed the USDA reporting an increase of 11.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26, along with 0.2 mmt for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 32.7 mmt, which far exceeded the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 875 mb. Total 25/26 wheat sales commitments have reached 456 mb, up 22% from last year.

  • According to the USDA, as of September 2, spring wheat areas in drought were steady with last week’s reading of 13%. However, a recent lack of rain in winter wheat areas is becoming more apparent – drought conditions increased to 34%, up 3% from the week before. It is worth noting, however, that winter wheat acres in drought were 52% at this time last year.

  • In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, they reported that Argentina’s wheat crop is 98% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. While this is very good, some heading winter wheat may have sustained recent frost damage, and there is risk of additional cold fronts over the next two weeks.

  • Ukraine has reportedly collected 28.8 mmt of grain so far in their harvest. Of that total, 22 mmt is wheat, which is up slightly from the 21.8 mmt figure at this time last year. Meanwhile, Russia is said to have collected 100 mmt of grain so far, out of an expected total of 135 mmt. In related news, Russia increased their wheat export tax by 25% to 168.6 rubles/mt through September 16.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 605.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.

    • Changes:

      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 605.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 590 against December 2025 for the sixth sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan A target of 590 against December 2025 futures has been added.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 642 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 647 target has been lowered to 642.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

|

9-4 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Rebound, Wheat Ends Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the day higher, supported by emerging weather concerns from expanding drought conditions and a favorable ethanol report.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher, supported by strong U.S. soybean crush data and firm domestic demand.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets closed lower today, pressured by a lack of fresh news and strength in the U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop: 

  • New Alert – Sell one-quarter of your December 420 puts today.

  • Plan A:

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • One-quarter of your 420 puts should be exited to lighten the position in case upside momentum continues through September. The remaining three-quarters should remain to continue providing downside protection.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures rallied off session lows to finish higher, supported by technical buying after prices tested and held key support levels. September corn gained 2 cents to 399 ¾, and December futures added 1 ¾ cent to 419 ¾.

  • The U.S. drought monitor maps released on Thursday morning show an increase of dry conditions in the eastern Corn Belt. As of August 2, 9% of corn acres were in some form of drought, up 4% from last week. The dry conditions will likely limit the top side in corn production for the second straight year.

  • Weekly ethanol production increased last week to 316 million gallons/day for the week ending August 29. A total of 107 mb of corn was used last week for ethanol production. This is very close to the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year, which ended on August 31.

  • USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for 2025-26 sales to range from 900,000-2.2 MMT. Current exports sales are nearly double last year and the second-best start in sales in the last 25 years for this time frame.

  • Below normal temperatures are forecasted for the northern Corn Belt this weekend as overnight low temperature could push toward the freezing mark. If some frost was to occur, it could limit the final development of the corn and soybean crops in those areas.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • A Plan B target has been added to exit one-quarter of the January 1040 puts options has been removed.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, surging back from earlier morning lows along with the rest of the grain complex. November soybeans gained 1-1/2 cents to $10.33 while March gained 1-1/4 to $10.67. October soybean meal gained $2.50 to $280.10 and October soybean oil gained 0.07 cents to 51.51 cents.

  • Yesterday, Allendale projected that the national soybean yield would come in near 53.28 bpa with production at 4.27 bb. This would be slightly below the USDA estimate which will likely be updated in next week’s WASDE report. The USDA’s last yield projection was 53.58 bpa.

  • Chinese soybean demand stays absent from the U.S. market, limiting prices. China has been an active buyer of both old and new crop soybeans out of South America this week. It was reported that China logged purchases on soybeans from Argentina yesterday.

  • U.S. soybean crushings were seen at 204.8 million bushels in July which was up 5.9% from the same period last year and above June crushings of 196.9 mb. This strong domestic demand should be supportive relative to slow export demand.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended lower across all three classes, unable to join the recovery seen in corn and soybeans. The absence of fresh news and a firmer U.S. dollar pressured prices. December Chicago closed 2-1/2 cents lower at 519-1/2, while December Kansas City lost 4 cents and December MIAX lost 2-3/4 cents to 506-1/4 and 570-1/4, respectively.

  • Ukraine, which is getting ready to plant winter wheat, has seen good rainfall through late August in the central, southern, and eastern growing regions. This has helped to create adequate soil moisture and agreeable conditions to get the crop off to a good start.

  • Alongside a recent increase to the Australian wheat crop production estimate from ABARE, LSEG commodities research has also upped their projection. Their forecast for the 25/26 crop was raised 7.3% to 32.3 mmt. Widespread rains in July and August were cited as the reason for the increase.

  • A memorandum of understanding was signed between Israel and Moldova in regard to joint wheat cultivation. Reportedly, Israel will provide seed and knowledge, while Moldova will provide land, water, and labor. This is said to be part of Israel’s strategy to increase food security.

  • According to their ministry of agriculture, in Saskatchewan (Canada), the spring wheat harvest is 14% done as of the beginning of this month. Total production is anticipated to be above the five-year average, despite expectations for slightly lower yields.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 25 vs December for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy call options if December closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:
    • Target 601.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
  • Plan B:
    • No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
    • Changes:
      • The Plan A target has been lowered to 601.75.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if December closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 647 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 656 target has been lowered to 647.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B:
    • Buy KC call options if December KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Continued Opportunity – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop today.
  • Plan A: No active targets.
  • Plan B: No active targets.
  • Details:
    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
    • Changes:
      • None.
      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.