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3-7 End of Day: Corn and Beans Surge Higher, Wheat Mixed Ahead of USDA WASDE on Friday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures surged higher on Thursday on likely continued short covering by the funds ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE report.
  • Stronger than expected weekly soybean export sales gave soybean futures enough momentum to close above their 20-day moving average today, something they have been unable to do since mid-December.
  • Wheat futures were mixed on Thursday with KC and Minneapolis prices surging higher while Chicago futures closed slightly lower after this morning’s confirmation that China had indeed cancelled 113,000 mt of US SRW recently.
  • To see the updated US 3 to 7-day mean max temperature anomaly forecast courtesy of NOAA as well as the 4-week class changed of the US Drought Monitor for the North Central States as of February 6, 2024, courtesy of NOAA and the UNL scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke out of the most recent consolidation range with strong price action and gains on the session. May corn gained 9 ¼ cents to finish with its highest close since February 14. On the week, May corn has added 13 ¼ cents going into Friday and the March WASDE report.
  • The market could see additional short covering before tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. The report expects to see slight changes in US carryout projections. Analysts feel US corn carryout could drop by 15 – 20 mb to 2.159 mb with slight demand adjustments for ethanol usage or a slight bump in export totals. The report will be released at 11:00 CST.
  • Weekly export sales remain supportive of the corn market. The USDA announced new sales for the marketing year totaling 1.110 MMT (43.7 mb) accumulated last week. Total corn sales commitments are now at 1.544 billion bushels, up 28% from last year. Japan was the top buyer of US corn last week.
  • Brazil weather will stay a focus in the corn market. With production estimates already lowered for this season due to lower planted areas, late season dry weather could limit production further, supporting corn prices. Currently, the second crop Brazil corn is being planted early and weather is supportive of good production.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate following the bullish key reversal on February 26. Overhead resistance remains between 435 and 445. If the prices close below 421, the bottom of the recent range, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans began the trading day strong out of the gate on last night’s open, and steadily climbed into the day session that was met with back-and-forth two-sided trade, with some likely short covering ahead of tomorrow’s March USDA WASDE update. May soybeans ended the day just above the 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-December. Both soybean meal and oil traded higher on the day and lent support to soybeans, with oil gaining on meal. May Board crush margins also gained on the day to close at 79-1/4 up two cents.
  • The USDA released its weekly export sales for the week ending February 29, which showed stronger than expected soybean sales at 22.5 mb for the 23/24 season and 2.4 mb for 24/25. With sales of old crop beans marking a 7-week high. To date, old crop soybean sales remain behind last year’s commitments by 19% where the USDA is currently forecasting a 14% drop. Current outstanding sales to China/unknown of 116 mb are down from 149 mb this time last year.
  • China’s soybean imports for the Jan-Feb time frame dropped to a 5-year low of just 13.04 mmt according to the General Administration of Customs. The drop represents an 8.8% decline from the same time last year. Poor crushing margins and delayed shipments were among the reasons given.
  • Soybean prices and export sales continue to run into resistance with Brazil’s ongoing soybean harvest which has filled their export pipeline with much cheaper supplies. Brazil’s export offers have caught a bid in the last day or so and risen about 30 cents on increasing demand, though they remain about 80 cents cheaper than US offers.
  • Tomorrow’s WASDE report isn’t expected to include any major surprises, but analysts expect that the US soybean carryout will see a slight increase of about 5 mb possibly by a decrease in exports. The trade will still focus on the USDA’s estimates on South American production, where the Argentine soybean crop is expected to increase slightly to 50.3 mmt, while Brazil’s is expected to decrease to 152.8 mmt, from last month’s 156 mmt forecast.

Above: After posting a low of 1128 ½ on February 29, soybeans rallied back higher on short covering. The market remains oversold on the weekly chart and continues to provide underlying support. For now, resistance above the market remains between 1190 and 1205, with initial support still just below 1130. If prices were to decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher in the Kansas City contracts, and moderately higher in Minneapolis, but was mixed in Chicago futures. The likely culprit for the pressure was confirmation this morning (of yesterday’s rumor) that China did indeed cancel 130,000 mt of SRW wheat for 23/24. With about 49 mb of sales to China beforehand, the number is now reduced to about 44 mb on the books. This morning the USDA also reported an increase of 10.0 mb of wheat export sales for the 23/24 season, along with an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25.
  • Tomorrow’s focus by traders will be on the monthly WASDE report. The USDA is not expected to change much in terms of the wheat numbers, however. US 23/24 wheat carryout is expected to remain unchanged from last month at 658 mb, while world ending stocks are anticipated to decrease slightly, from 259.4 mmt in February to 259.1 mmt this month.
  • According to StoneX, Brazil’s 24/25 wheat crop is expected to increase 14% year on year to 9.2 mmt of production. The estimate for the previous year came in at 8.1 mmt. This is also despite planting area anticipated to decrease by 11%. Therefore, the increase in the production estimate is attributable to expectations of higher yield.
  • India’s wheat crop experienced heavy rain and hail last weekend in the northwest growing region. An estimated 150,000 hectares were affected by the storm, and while damage is still being assessed, this may lower the chance that they harvest a record crop. In February, it was forecast by their farm ministry that the country would collect 112 mmt. But the potential for hotter than normal weather this month may also limit this figure before harvest begins in April.
  • Weather in South America remains mostly favorable for now. But according to the Rosario Grain Exchange, there is about a 77% chance that a La Nina weather pattern will develop by October. This is a concern for Argentinian farmers as this is closely associated with drought conditions for them. This would affect the growth of the wheat crop but may also affect corn and soybean plantings next season.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continuing opportunity to sell half of your July ‘24 590 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last August Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 590 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 31 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from potential price erosion. At the time, US export demand was very weak with lower world export prices, and July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 610.  The breaking of 610 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’24 Chicago wheat has dropped about 110 cents, with the July ’24 590 Chicago wheat puts gaining about 200% in value. Though world export prices remain low, plenty of time remains to market the ’24 crop, and following this market drop, any increase in demand or threat of yield loss could rally prices.  Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’24 590 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back, and holding the remaining puts, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With falling Russian and Black Sea export prices still pressuring the wheat market, May Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend, which is showing signs of being oversold. Assuming the current trend remains, the next major support level below the market may come in around 470 – 488. If the market does turn back higher, initial resistance may come in near 555, with heavy resistance up above around 590 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Having May KC wheat trade below 556 ¾ puts the market at risk of declining further unless some bullish input triggers a market turnaround. Should that happen, prices could test overhead resistance near 590 before challenging more resistance around 605. Otherwise, if prices decline further, support down below could be found near 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

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3-6 End of Day: Corn Settles Near Session Highs as Wheat Makes New Lows

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market experienced choppy trade on both sides of unchanged as it continues to consolidate ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report in search of direction. A surge of buying from strong corn usage for ethanol overcame the weakness of the wheat complex to allow May corn to close just ¾ of a cent off its high.
  • The soybean complex settled the day mixed and well off the session’s lows. Late-day strength in soybean meal along with higher soybean oil, with help from higher palm oil, gave support to the soybean market as buyers returned.
  • Declining FOB offers out of the Black Sea at about $190/mt, and Russian offers just under $200, along with rumors of Chinese US SRW cancellations, broke Chicago and KC wheat to new lows, while Minneapolis tested the bottom of its recent range. This recent round of negativity has given managed funds little reason to hold off on their selling as suggested by the rise in open interest for both Chicago and KC.
  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the NASA-Grace drought indicator maps of the US and South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, NASA Grace, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures traded slightly higher on the session, fighting off another day of selling pressure from the wheat market. May corn gained 2 ½ cents during the session while wheat futures pushed to new contract lows. The recent price action in corn has been friendly despite the overall lack of price movement.
  • The corn market consolidated for the seventh consecutive day with a trading range from 420 – 430 on the May futures. Today’s session saw a narrow trading range of 6 ¼ cents from high to low as the corn market is looking for some near-term direction.
  • The USDA will announce weekly export sales on tomorrow morning. The expectations for new corn sales last week are to range from 800,000 mt – 1.4 mmt for the 23/24 marketing year. Export sales last week were at 1.082 mmt for corn.
  • The weekly ethanol report saw average daily production for the week ending March 1 at 1.057 million barrels. This was down 1.9% from last week, but up 4.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks rose to a new record for the week of 26.051 million barrels, pushing past last year’s old record high. Corn used during the week was 104.91 million bushels, which is trending ahead of the USDA ethanol grind targets for the marketing year.
  • Price moves in the corn market are likely to stay choppy the remainder of the week until Friday’s USDA WASDE report. The market could see additional short covering. The report expects to see slight changes in US carryout projections. Analysts feel US corn carryout could drop by 15 – 20 mb to 2.159 mb with slight demand adjustments for ethanol usage or a slight bump in export totals.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate following the bullish key reversal on February 26. Overhead resistance remains between 435 and 445. If the prices close below 421, the bottom of the recent range, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The soybean complex closed the day mixed with soybeans still lower from yesterday’s weakness, while soybean oil gained on meal as it garnered strength from higher palm oil. While soybeans closed lower on the day, late day strength in soybean meal lent support to the bean market enabling it to claw back most of its losses.
  • As the Brazilian harvest continues, US soybean prices and export sales continue to struggle with US offers 113 cents over Brazil for April delivery, and while US soybean meal premiums aren’t as extreme, they are $22/mt over Argentina’s $372/mt.
  • Analyst Dorab Mistry stated that he expects 2024 palm oil production in the world’s two largest producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, to drop by 1 million metric tons collectively, just as 23/24 world demand is expected to increase by 6 mmt with supplies increasing just 3.1 mmt. Additionally, Indonesia’s palm oil exports are anticipated to fall to 29.5 mmt from last year’s 32.2 mmt, as they are expected to increase their biofuel blending rate to 40% from 35%. This could press prices higher for the world’s most widely used veg oil and support bean oil prices.
  • There continues to be a wide range of estimates for South American soybean production. This Friday the USDA will release its updated March WASDE report, and while only minor changes are expected to US carryout, the market will likely keep a close eye on where the USDA lands with its upcoming South American production forecasts, mainly Brazil. The current average estimate are for a slight increase to Argentina’s crop, and 3.2 mmt decrease to Brazil’s.

Above: After posting a low of 1128 ½ on February 29, soybeans rallied back higher on short covering. The market remains oversold on the weekly chart and continues to provide underlying support. For now, resistance above the market remains between 1190 and 1205, with initial support still just below 1130. If prices were to decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes closed sharply lower. Rumors that China might cancel some open US wheat sales allowed the floodgates to open. Additionally, dirt cheap FOB values out of the Black Sea, around $190/mt are not helping the situation. For comparison, US wheat offers are said to be about forty to fifty dollars above that level.
  • Paris milling wheat futures also closed lower today, with new contract lows being made in the May through December 2024 futures. This is despite the French wheat crop being in much poorer condition compared to last year but indicates that their exports are also struggling against competition out of the Black Sea.
  • Algeria may have purchased up to 900,000 mt of milling wheat on an international tender. It is also believed that they may have done so at $38/mt cheaper than their previous tender. While the origin is unknown, there is a good chance that the Black Sea is involved. To add to the bearishness, Vladimir Putin recently stated that Russia may export 65 mmt of grain in the 23/24 season. For reference, they exported 60 mmt in 22/23.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, rainfall in Argentina is expected to decline as El Nino gives way to a more neutral pattern, and this may bring a drier fall for the South American nation. Wheat planting for the 24/25 season is set to begin in May, and if a La Nina pattern does develop, as some are predicting, it could once again bring drought to Argentina. For comparison, Argentina had their worst drought on record during La Nina in the 22/23 season. 
  • Stats Canada will release Canadian planting intention estimates on Monday. Based on farmer surveys, the average pre-report estimate of all wheat acreage comes in at 26.7 million. This is in the middle of the range of estimates, with 26.0 ma on the low end and 27.4 ma on the high side. For reference, all wheat acreage in 2023 came in at 27.03 ma.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of your July ‘24 590 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last August Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 590 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 31 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from potential price erosion. At the time, US export demand was very weak with lower world export prices, and July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 610.  The breaking of 610 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’24 Chicago wheat has dropped about 110 cents, with the July ’24 590 Chicago wheat puts gaining about 200% in value. Though world export prices remain low, plenty of time remains to market the ’24 crop, and following this market drop, any increase in demand or threat of yield loss could rally prices.  Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’24 590 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back, and holding the remaining puts, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With falling Russian and Black Sea export prices still pressuring the wheat market, May Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend, which is showing signs of being oversold. Assuming the current trend remains, the next major support level below the market may come in around 470 – 488. If the market does turn back higher, initial resistance may come in near 555, with heavy resistance up above around 590 – 600.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Having May KC wheat trade below 556 ¾ puts the market at risk of declining further unless some bullish input triggers a market turnaround. Should that happen, prices could test overhead resistance near 590 before challenging more resistance around 605. Otherwise, if prices decline further, support down below could be found near 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

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3-5 End of Day: Markets Reverse Some of Monday’s Gains

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A quick planting pace for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, and weakness in the wheat complex with May Chicago wheat hitting a new contract low added negativity to the corn market which continued to consolidate for the 6th day in a row.
  • After a lower opening to the day session, soybeans rallied briefly to a 3 ¾ cent gain on strength from soybean oil, but that strength quickly faded amid weaker soybean meal and fading soybean oil. With Brazil’s ongoing harvest, their export prices are running about 100 cents cheaper than the US offers, hindering US exports and prices.
  • Technical selling resumed in the soybean meal after it failed to hold midday gains, and choppy two-sided trade dominated soybean oil in today’s trade as it continues to consolidate. Meal importing countries remain largely hand to mouth in anticipation of cheaper Argentine supplies, while palm and bean oil demand in India slowed considerably last month in favor of less expensive alternatives like sunflower oil.
  • Declining export offers out of the Black Sea region and Russia continue to weigh on the wheat complex, which saw closing prices in the red for all three classes. Open interest in the complex has also risen over the past few days, suggesting that managed funds may be adding to their net short positions.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 1-week precipitation forecast and 7-day total accumulated precipitation for Brazil, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished lower on the session, pressured by selling pressure in the wheat market as Chicago wheat prices broke to new lows in the May contract. May corn futures lost 3 ¾ cents during the session.
  • The corn market consolidated for the sixth consecutive day with a trading range from 420 – 430 on the May futures. Today’s session saw a narrow trading range of six cents from high to low, and prices traded within yesterday’s trading range as the corn market is looking for some near-term direction.
  • Brazil’s second crop corn planting is running well ahead of schedule, promoted by a rapid soybean harvest. Brazil consulting group AgRural estimates that 86% of the corn planting is complete versus 70% last year.
  • Demand remains the focus of the US corn market. Demand news has been improved in recent weeks for US corn as export sales and inspections have trended well above last year’s disappointing total. Export sales are looking to approach the 5-year average, as the corn export window for US corn is open and prices are competitive. Both sales and shipments will need to stay consistently strong in the weeks ahead to reach USDA export targets.
  • Price moves in the corn market are likely to stay choppy the remainder of the week until Friday’s USDA WASDE report. The market could see additional short covering. The report is expecting to see slight changes on US carryout projections, but the market may focus more on the USDA’s path with the Argentina and Brazil production estimates.

Above: The corn market continues to consolidate following the bullish key reversal on February 26. Overhead resistance remains between 435 and 445. If the prices close below 421, the bottom of the recent range, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and though they managed to remain off the contract lows, they have also been met with selling pressure following any rallies. Export demand has been sluggish, and the US has a greater disadvantage with the ongoing Brazilian harvest. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
  • Friday’s WASDE report isn’t expected to include any major surprises, but analysts expect that the US soybean carryout will be slightly increased due to a decrease in exports. The world carryout is expected to fall, and estimated Argentine soybean production is expected to increase slightly to 50.3 mmt, while Brazil’s is expected to decrease to 152.8 mmt, from last month’s 156 mmt forecast.
  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 48% complete, which compares to 40% a week earlier and 43% the previous year. Cash prices in the country have recently begun to rise, which has brought about more farmer selling, although export prices remain about 100 cents/bu. below US offers.
  • In China, soybeans on the Dalian Exchange rose by 0.6% and are trading at the equivalent of $13.68. China has bought US soybeans but will likely lean more heavily on Brazil’s cheaper beans as harvest progresses. There continue to be concerns that China and other countries will cancel previous US purchases in favor of Brazil.

Above: After posting a low of 1128 ½ on February 29, soybeans rallied back higher on short covering. The market remains oversold on the weekly chart and continues to provide underlying support. For now, resistance above the market remains between 1190 and 1205, with initial support still just below 1130. If prices were to decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • In a reversal from yesterday’s trend, all three US wheats posted losses, led by Chicago futures. This comes despite winter wheat crop good to excellent conditions declining in Texas by 3%, Kansas by 4%, and Oklahoma by 5%. Offering pressure to the wheat trade today are reports that Black Sea wheat FOB values dropped below $200 per mt, with Russia just above that level; this keeps the US uncompetitive in terms of exports.
  • On Friday’s USDA report, not much change is expected for wheat in terms of the US numbers. The average pre-report estimate of US wheat carryout is pegged at 658 mb, which would be unchanged from last month. The world ending stocks estimate comes in at 259.2 mmt versus 259.4 last month. There is a chance that the USDA could lower US wheat exports from the current 725 mb.
  • In Brazil, wheat imports are on the rise due to low supply from last season. According to Secex, Brazil imported about 439,000 mt of wheat up to the fourth week in February. For reference, February of last year saw just over 291,000 mt of wheat imported. In addition, Brazil’s wheat exports of roughly 131,000 mt were well below the 533,000 mt exported last year.
  • According to China’s Minister of Agricultural and Rural Affairs, Chinese grain output was a record 695.4 mmt in 2023. This marks the ninth year in a row that they have recorded a harvest of over 650 mmt. As they work to become less reliant on other nations for their food security, there is also news that China has pledged to protect farmland. The government will work towards developing high quality land as well as restoring degraded land.
  • The north African country of Morocco will reportedly need to increase their wheat imports. They struggled with a lack of rain in the fall and officials have stated that the wheat crop could be substantially below the 4mm crop last year. They are said to have their hands tied, in that they have no choice but to increase their imports.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With falling Russian and Black Sea export prices still pressuring the wheat market, it appears that May Chicago wheat has fallen below 555 support. Managed funds continue to hold a significant short position which is supportive and could move prices toward the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. For now, if prices continue to retreat, the next support level below the market remains between 533 and 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-4 End of Day: Markets Settle Firm Across the Board to Begin the Week

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A flash sale totaling 110,000 mt of corn to Taiwan along with solid weekly export inspections helped to support the corn market which saw mostly firmer trade and a close at the upper end of its 9 ½ cent range which followed through on last week’s gains.
  • Weekly soybean export inspections that came in toward the upper end of expectations and support from higher soybean meal helped keep soybeans in the green after seeing choppy trade and a selloff from the day’s highs. A higher estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by StoneX may have added resistance.
  • A flash sale totaling 126,000 tonnes of soybean meal and cake to unknown destinations lent support to soybean meal, which like soybeans ran into resistance as prices neared the 20-day moving average and settled near the lower end of the day’s range. Soybean oil traded similarly with two-sided trade to settle marginally better.  
  • Despite reports of falling Russian export prices from IKAR, all three wheat classes settled in the green, with KC and Minneapolis being the strong legs of the complex. Australia’s ABARE, which forecast the country’s wheat crop 36% lower than last year, at 26 mmt likely added to the bullish tone.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures used the improved technical picture and announced export sales to help push higher during the session. May corn futures gained 5 ¼ cents and posted its highest close in nearly two weeks.
  • The corn market saw follow-through buying after weekly charts posted reversals with Friday’s close. The higher close in May corn last week was the market’s first positive weekly close in 11 weeks.
  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Taiwan this morning. The sales totaled 4.3 mb (110,000 mt) for the current marketing year. This was the first announced sale of corn to Tiawan since January 2017.
  • The USDA released weekly export inspections totals for last week during the session. Last week, US exporter shipped 42.7 mb (1.084 mmt) of corn. Total export shipments are at 812 mb, up 35% from last year.
  • On this week’s Commitment of Traders report, managed money exited 45,474 net short positions, moving their net short position to 295,258 contracts. Historically, this is still an extremely large short position and could see addition short covering before Friday’s USDA WASDE report.

Above: To begin the new month, the corn market reversed lower after hitting resistance just below 435, and it appears at this point that it may test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 45,474 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 295,258 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but backed significantly off their earlier morning highs which saw May futures as high as 1165 ¾. Early support came from the report of a sale of soybean cake and meal to unknown, and decent export inspections. Both soybean meal and oil closed slightly higher.
  • Export inspections for the week ending February 29 showed soybean inspections at 1.021 mmt, which was toward the higher end of the estimated trade range. Export inspections are down 20% year over year as the world relies further on cheaper South American soybeans.
  • This morning, private exporters reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations. 30,000 mt of that total is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year while the other 96,000 mt is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year. This was encouraging since flash sales have been few and far between with Brazil harvesting its crop.
  • With weather in South America improving, StoneX has increased their estimate for Brazilian production to 151.6 mmt which is up 0.8% from their last guess. Many analysts are closer to 149 mmt despite the USDA keeping its estimate at 156 mmt. The March WASDE report will be released this Friday and the trade will look to see if that number is lowered.

Above: After posting a low of 1128 ½ on February 29, soybeans rallied back higher on short covering. The market remains oversold on the weekly chart and continues to provide underlying support. For now, resistance above the market remains between 1190 and 1205, with initial support still just below 1130. If prices were to decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 23,976 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 160,653 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes posted gains in tandem with Paris milling wheat futures. May Chicago wheat did make a new contract low before reversing with strength into the close. Some upside may have come from reports that ABARE, part of Australia’s federal agricultural department, has projected their 23/24 wheat crop at 26 mmt. That is down 36% from last year, and for reference, the USDA is projecting a 25.5 mmt crop.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections at 12.98 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections number to 476 mb. This keeps inspections in line with recent averages and in line with expectations; the USDA is estimating 725 mb of exports for 23/24.
  • According to IKAR, last week Russian wheat export values hit a low of $203 per metric ton FOB. That is down from $215 the week before and the continued fall of Russian prices is a big obstacle for the US market to overcome. In addition, this Friday will feature the monthly WASDE report, where some are anticipating that the USDA may raise the Russian wheat crop. US numbers are not expected to show major changes, however.
  • India is projecting warmer-than-normal temperatures for the next few months. This may affect their wheat crops in the major growing regions. According to their director general of the Meteorological Department, maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal in many areas of the country. India is already restricting exports of wheat, among other products, to keep food prices down, so this poses another threat. With that said, India is also estimating a 112 mmt crop, which would be up 1.3% from a year ago.
  • Aside from Friday’s upcoming USDA report, there are also several outside influences this week that may affect wheat and the commodity markets in general. First off is Super Tuesday, in which many US states will hold primary elections. Also on Tuesday is the annual Chinese parliament gathering at which they are expected to announce a stimulus package to help their economy. And finally, the Fed chairman is also expected to speak in front of congress this week regarding interest rates.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, that could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 12,198 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 56,326 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 215 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 42,122 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,136 contracts between February 21 – 27, bringing their total position to a net short 25,968 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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3-1 End of Day: Selling Resumes in Corn and Wheat to Start the Month

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The corn market was caught in the crosshairs again between sharply lower wheat and strong soybeans. After failing to follow through above the 20-day moving average, prices reversed lower in today’s trade in sympathy with the wheat complex.
  • Soybeans closed higher on the day following two-sided trade that was mostly higher with support coming from higher meal. Soybeans continued to consolidate following last week’s break in prices with support still holding below the market around Thursday’s contract low of 1128 ¼.
  • Soybean meal gained on oil again as the week came to a close. Strong weekly exports for meal kept support under the market as it followed through from posting a new contract low in yesterday’s trade. May soybean oil saw both sides of unchanged and mostly lower prices throughout the day before surging back to close with just a 0.05 cent loss.
  • As the calendar rolled over to the month of March the sellers came out in mass in the wheat complex as it failed to close over the 20-day moving average in any of the three classes in recent days. Russian FOB offers as low as $209/mt continue to offer resistance to US prices and encourage sellers.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling in the wheat market pressured corn futures lower on the session. May corn futures lost 4 ¾ cents on the session. Despite the weakness to end the week, May corn futures gained 12 ½ cents for the week, posting a bullish hook reversal off weekly lows. This was the first time in 4 weeks corn traded higher, and only the 3rd time in the past 11 weeks.
  • December corn has an improved technical picture as prices held support at the key 450 level this week.  Weekly charts posted a bullish key reversal as December corn futures traded 9 ¾ cents higher on the week.  Follow through strength next week will be key.
  • The March contract is in delivery, but deliveries against the futures have been very small.  Zero contracts on Thursday, and only 3 on Friday. The lack of deliveries is helping support the front end of the corn market. The past two sessions have seen some light bull spreading.
  • China rumors have been a factor in the corn market this week. Talk of Chinese purchases of Ukrainian corn at lower prices has limited the corn market, but later in the week, whispers that China was looking for some corn exports out of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) has helped support prices. No flash sales have been announced and the market may have to wait until next week’s exports sales report. Regardless, those sales will likely be light and not move the demand needle much.
  • Managed funds have been likely covering the record short position they hold in the corn market. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report had funds holding a net short position over 340,000 contracts. The updated Commitment of Traders report will be released on Friday afternoon.

Above: To begin the new month, the corn market reversed lower after hitting resistance just below 435, and it appears at this point that it may test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in another day of two-sided trade that saw prices lower earlier in the day before rebounding higher. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil was lower despite a sharp gain in crude oil. Despite today’s rally, soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past week.
  • The CME reported a large number of deliveries against the March contract yesterday and reported more today with 502 against March soybeans, just 1 in soybean meal, and 37 against soybean oil. Today’s deliveries did not pressure prices lower like they did yesterday.
  • For the week, May soybeans gained 9-1/2 cents but lost 92 cents during the month of February. May soybean meal gained $4.30 on the week while losing $34.90 in February, and May soybean oil gained 0.56 cents for the week while losing 1.33 cents last month. Over the past week, funds likely exited a portion of their net short position ahead of first notice day, and a temporary bottom could be in.
  • Next week the USDA will release its WASDE report and trade will look to see if adjustments are made to South America’s expected production. Argentina is expected to produce double what was produced in the drought last year, and Brazil was estimated to produce 156 mmt of soybeans in the USDA’s February update despite most other analysts estimating the number closer to 149 mmt.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes today. Weakness originated from Paris milling wheat futures closing sharply lower, with losses of 3.75 to 8.00 euros per mt. This is the lowest it has traded since August 2020 and comes even though their crop ratings are relatively poor. As of February 26, just 68% of the French wheat crop was rated good to very good. This is a large decline from the 95% rating at the same time last year.
  • To add to pressure today, Russian FOB values are said to be remaining steady at $209 per mt, keeping pressure on exports, and thus, futures. SovEcon has also said that Russian February wheat exports could be a record due to their very competitive prices. The exports are estimated at 3.8 mmt, which compares to 3.0 mmt last year and the 2.6 mmt average. As an aside, they are projecting 23/24 wheat exports at 48.6 mmt versus the USDA at 51 mmt.
  • According to the European Commission, the EU 2023 wheat production was slightly trimmed. Harvest is estimated at 125.6 mmt compared to 125.9 mmt previously. Additionally, the wheat import forecast was increased by 0.5 mmt to 17.5 mmt. On a bearish note, though, India’s ag ministry has stated that their wheat production may exceed last year’s 110.6 mmt, with estimates of 112 mmt of production for the 23/24 season.
  • Ukraine is said to have exported 8 mmt of cargo in February, with 5.2 mmt of that being ag goods. Reportedly, 113 vessels are now in Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Chornomorsk ports and are waiting to be loaded with about 3 mmt more cargo.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, that could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-29 End of Day: Grain Markets Settle Mostly Higher on Thursday

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Garnering support from higher wheat, the corn market settled slightly higher and well off its lows from earlier in the session. The lack of deliveries in the March contract supported prices as traders continued to roll their short March positions to the deferred contracts.
  • Higher than expected deliveries against the March contract added a layer of resistance to the soybean market, which like corn, traded on both sides of unchanged before settling lower on the day. Weekly export sales also came in at the low end of expectations with nearly 400 metric tons cancelled from unknown destinations.  
  • Both soybean meal and oil settled in the green, with bean oil mostly near unchanged, while meal gained $2 in the March and $1.70 in the May. Strong meal sales added support as they are currently running 22% ahead of last year.
  • The wheat complex settled mostly higher on the day with the March contracts gaining on the deferreds as traders look to roll existing short March positions to other delivery months.
  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor and 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast, as a percent of normal, for Brazil courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy two-sided trade dominated the corn market that saw both sides of unchanged but closed with only modest gains, but well off the lows, as bull spreading gave strength to the front months over the deferreds.
  • This morning, the USDA reported export sales for the week ending February 22. Last week, corn export sales totaled 42.6 mb for 23/24 and 6.5 mb for 24/25, which were at the upper end of expectations, and puts total commitments 30% ahead of last year. Shipments last week totaled 47.9 mb and were above the 45.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.1 bb.
  • Today was First Notice Day for deliveries on the March contracts, and there were no deliveries issued. This lent support to the March contract as short contract holders continue to roll positions to the May.
  • Futures open interest has steadily fallen since last week with the number of open contracts down over 100,000 contracts from last Thursday. This, with the recent rally, implies that traders are liquidating some of their short positions. There is currently very little, if any, weather premium in the market, and as planting season nears, weather will become a more influential factor for both here and in Brazil.
  • Current Brazilian weather is still considered non-threatening for crops, helping the key second crop Brazilian corn crop get off to a strong start. Moisture levels overall are still limited, so rainfall will need to stay timely as the crop develops.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after another day of volatile trade. Prices were sharply lower earlier this morning following a large number of deliveries against the March contract. Export sales were at the low end of expectations and there were some cancellations. Interestingly, the front months in both soybean meal and oil closed higher.
  • With First Notice Day today came a surprisingly large number of deliveries totaling 702 contracts against the March futures, which initially drove prices down before they rebounded slightly. There will likely be more deliveries tomorrow which could pressure the March contract even more against the May.
  • Today’s Export Sales report showed an increase of just 5.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. This was up from last week but down 30% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 40.5 mb were well above the 18.2 mb needed to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to China, the Netherlands, and Mexico. There were cancellations of 392 mt of soybeans from unknown destinations.
  • Next week the USDA will release its WASDE report and trade will look to see if adjustments are made to South America’s expected production. Argentina is expected to produce double what was produced in the drought last year, and Brazil was estimated to produce 156 mmt of soybeans in the USDA’s February update despite most other analysts estimating the number closer to 149 mmt.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After a two-sided trade wheat closed mostly higher; September Chicago wheat onward posted small losses. On the bearish side, there were 484 deliveries of Chicago wheat, which was more than anticipated. However, momentum on some technical indicators still point to the upside for wheat as it moves out of oversold territory.
  • The USDA reported an increase of 12.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 19.8 mb were above the 17.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 725 mb.
  • Argentina is set to receive abundant rain over the next several days that will fall over most of their agriculture producing areas. The southwestern areas will receive less precipitation, but it is still expected to benefit the corn and soybean crops. As it pertains to wheat, this should help recharge soil moisture before the upcoming planting.
  • According to Russian Ag Minister, Dmitry Patrushev, Russia has no interest in renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This deal between Russia and Ukraine ended last July, but Ukraine has been successful in exporting grain via their own corridor. It is estimated that combined Russian and Ukrainian grain exports for February were a record 6.5 mmt. Russian wheat FOB values also continue to fall, weighing on the export market.
  • India is said to be preparing to purchase between 30 and 32 mmt of 23/24 wheat, according to their food ministry. For reference, the Indian government purchased 26 mmt of wheat from the 22/23 crop for its welfare programs versus a target of 34.2 mmt. Note – India is the world’s second largest wheat producer and is also the second largest consumer. 
  • The wildfires in Texas are said to have expanded to the second largest in state history. Residents living in the panhandle area were ordered to evacuate as schools and highways were shut down. This is the worst wildfire in nearly two decades. Texas is experiencing drought which only worsens the issue. It is unknown what impact this will have on the wheat crop at this time, but it is expected that there will be some damage.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far, downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, that could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-28 End of Day: Corn Follows Through on Yesterday’s Gains, While Beans Firm and Wheat Slides

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Solid weekly corn usage for ethanol production and continued short covering helped support the corn market for the third day in a row as traders squared positions ahead of month-end and tomorrow’s First Notice Day, when long March futures holders are notified of delivery against any open positions.
  • The soybean complex closed in mixed fashion with beans following through on yesterday’s gains, while soybean meal and oil closed in opposite directions, with meal higher and bean oil weaker. Soybeans rallied into its midday highs but were unable to hold on to the rally as weakness from soybean oil weighed on Board crush values and soybeans from a weaker energy market.
  • Following choppy trade, the wheat complex closed mostly lower on the day as it consolidates from being oversold with weakness spilling over from sharply lower Paris milling wheat. The March contracts likely saw additional volatility as participants squared positions ahead of First Notice Day.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the US and South American root zone drought indicators, and the 2-week precipitation forecasts for Brazil courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, NASA-Grace and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw positive money flow for the 3rd consecutive session on Wednesday as the market saw additional short covering and position squaring going into the end of the month and First Notice Day on the March futures. March and May corn futures added 5 cents respectively during the session.
  • On Wednesday’s EIA report, weekly ethanol production slipped last week to 1.078 mbd, down slightly from last week and 7% from last year. There were 107 million bushels of corn used in ethanol production last week, which is still trending ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA projections. Ethanol stocks increased to 26 million barrels, which was at the high end of expectations and well above last year’s 24.8 million barrels level.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new sales to range from 600,000 – 1.2 mmt. Last week’s sales were 820,400 mmt. Corn sales need to push the top end of the range in this time window since the US is still competitive with global corn prices.
  • The recent push higher in corn prices could be met by farmer selling, which will likely limit the potential in the near term since the corn market is still working through a picture of heavy front-end supplies of corn.
  • Current Brazilian weather is still considered non-threatening for crops, helping the key second crop Brazilian corn crop get off to a strong start. Moisture levels overall are still limited, so rainfall will need to stay timely as the crop develops.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, but like yesterday, faded significantly from earlier morning highs. Soybeans have not rallied off their contract lows as well as corn has with the May contract just 12 cents off the low from Monday. Poor export sales and an ongoing Brazilian harvest have been bearish.
  • Soybean meal finished the day higher after making a new contract low yesterday while soybean oil closed lower and near its contract lows. While crush margins have narrowed recently, they remain profitable, and domestic crush demand has been relatively supportive.
  • South American weather has improved from January with harvest progressing in Brazil and now more than 40% complete, while Argentina has benefitted from scattered showers consistently. Argentina’s crop is expected to end up double the size or larger of last year’s drought ridden crop.
  • Yesterday, there was bullish news early in the day of an announcement by private exporters of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24. This was the first flash sale reported in over a week as cheaper Brazilian soybeans take export demand from the US.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in all three US classes, except for March Kansas City, which gained 2 cents on the day. Weakness can be blamed in part on Paris milling wheat futures, which closed sharply lower. Also, the US Dollar Index was marginally higher at the grain close, but well off the daily high that provided early pressure as well. GDP data today showed that the economy remains strong; inflation might also show signs of easing. These factors may lead to the US Dollar strengthening which would continue to pressure wheat.
  • Black Sea weather has been mostly favorable this winter, with good soil moisture levels, and the wheat in that region may be coming out of dormancy early due to warmer conditions. However, a cold front may move in next week. Nonetheless, nothing seems to be slowing down Russia’s exports. Their FOB values are said to have reached as low as $209 per metric ton. And with Ukraine’s grain shipments in February up 12% year on year, it is not surprising that US wheat is struggling.
  • European Union soft wheat exports, as of February 22, were down 3% year on year at 20.5 mmt. Their export season begins July 1, and last year’s exports for this time frame totaled 21.1 mmt. North African countries were the leading importers of this wheat, with Morocco the front runner at 3 mmt.
  • The warm and dry February here in the US has left the Mississippi River with low water levels; usually they are rising at this time of year. NOAA is projecting near-normal precipitation for March, which should help if forecasts verify. Currently, the upper Mississippi is set to reopen between March 4-16 which is a typical spring start date. While the direct impact to the wheat market is minimal at this time of year, the river is one of the main routes for US grain exports and is also vital for the shipping of fertilizer.
  • With dryness and heavy winds, wildfires were said to have impacted 60 Texas counties, primarily in the panhandle. The fires are said to have also spread to parts of Oklahoma and Nebraska. This may have caused some damage to the wheat crop, but it will take some time to assess.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.  

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-27 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Maintain Yesterday’s Strength, While Beans Fade

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Choppy two-sided trade dominated the corn market which settled midway in a rather tight 5 ¼ cent range with only modest gains from yesterday’s key reversal higher. Support came from continued technical short covering and a higher wheat market, while upward resistance came from generally favorable SA weather and weaker soybeans.
  • Early follow through strength from the overnight session faded throughout the day in soybeans with weakness carrying over from lower soybean meal and rumors that one of China’s major trading firms may look to switch US purchased beans to a cheaper SA origin for spring delivery.
  • Soybean meal and oil diverged in today’s trade with soybean oil settling higher on the day and following through on yesterday’s rally, with strength coming from higher Malaysian palm oil and crude oil. Meal retreated from overnight gains to make new contract lows. Slowing US feed demand and competition from cheaper Argentine supplies added to the downward pressure.
  • More technical short covering from yesterday’s bullish reversals and comments from Ukraine’s President Zelensky stating that the country may not be able to defend its own export corridor without additional help, added to today’s bullish tone in the wheat complex. All three classes of the wheat complex closed in the upper end of their respective ranges for the second day in a row.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, as well as the 1-week precipitation forecasts for South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level. 
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • For the second consecutive session, corn futures finished higher, holding on to yesterday’s gains. May corn futures gained 2 cents on the session. This is the first time since February 13th that corn futures posted consecutive daily gains. Despite the recent strength, the overall trend in the corn market remains bearish.
  • Corn prices were supported by additional short covering and technical buying after Monday’s turn higher and strong price action. Strength in the wheat market spilled over and helped support corn futures. The heavy supply picture and soybean prices fading, limited gains in the corn market on the session.
  • The corn market may stay choppy through the end of the week. Squaring up trade for the end of the month, and the influence of price action during first notice day on the March contract will likely keep the market choppy. First notice day is on Thursday this week.
  • In Brazil, second crop (safrinha) corn planting progress is running well ahead of the 5-year pace. The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, reported that planting of the Safrinha corn in Brazil was 59% complete last week. The strong early planting pace and overall friendly weather pattern should get the second crop corn off to a good start.
  • Confirmation of China buying Ukrainian corn limited market upside. Prices paid for the purchase were $227-$230/mt including freight. The prices are cheaper than current US export bids.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the session which saw prices as much as 16 cents higher earlier in the day before soybean meal faded, weighing on soybeans. Soybean oil managed to close higher along with crude oil. The majority of selling pressure was in the front months with November beans unchanged on the day.
  • Bullish news early in the day came from the announcement by private exporters of 123,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24. This was the first flash sale reported in over a week as cheaper Brazilian soybeans take export demand from the US.
  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated at 40% complete which compares with 33% the previous year at this time. With Brazil’s harvest ongoing, cash soybeans have fallen to prices significantly below those in the US, and there have been recent reports of Brazilian soybeans being imported into the US.
  • Domestic demand has remained firm thanks to profitable crush margins, despite having narrowed over the past few months. The use of soybean oil as renewable diesel has been supportive to demand.

Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheats were higher again today. Funds may be covering more of their short positions as the technical recovery continues. Additional support may have stemmed from comments by Ukraine’s President Zelensky; he indicated that without US military assistance, they may not be able to defend their humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea.
  • Some parts of the US have seen abnormally warm or even record temperatures this month. Areas of Nebraska and the Texas panhandle saw upwards of 80 to 90 degrees, and strong winds may be stressing the HRW crop. And with a major cold front moving through the Midwest over the next 24 hours, there are concerns that some areas may have the opposite problem, frost damage.
  • Heavy rain over the weekend hit parts of Australia from the remnant of tropical cyclone, Lincoln. In general, however, soil moisture is lacking in much of the country ahead of wheat planting, with more rain needed in the coming months to recharge moisture levels.
  • Several states released their individual winter wheat conditions. Kansas rated their crop 57% good to excellent, up from 54% in the week ending January 28, and just 13% was rated poor to very poor. Colorado and Nebraska saw slight declines, but most states that released data showed improvements.
  • Brazil’s wheat imports are said to be on the rise due to a lack of available high quality domestic wheat. According to Secex, Brazil’s wheat imports as of the third week in February totaled 383,950 tons, compared with 291,630 last February. Additionally, exports at just 56.090 million metric tons are well below the 533.42 mmt for the same time period in 2023.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive if prices follow through from the bullish reversal on February 26. If they follow through to the upside, resistance may come in around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below the market may come in near 600.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-26 End of Day: The Grain Complex Closes in the Green After Reversing off the Day’s Lows

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Once new lows were posted in the March and May corn futures contracts, prices rebounded to close with a bullish reversal as traders likely covered short positions. Weekly corn export inspections came in at a marketing year high and managed funds show a new record net short position of nearly 341k contracts.
  • Early weakness on reports of additional cargoes of Brazilian soybeans entering the US East Coast for Perdue Farms gave way to higher prices after making fresh contract lows in both the March and May contracts, with support coming from firmer soybean oil and corn.
  • KC wheat led the wheat complex higher with positive closes and bullish reversals in all three classes. Solid wheat export inspections that came in at a 7-week high and above expectations lent support along with higher corn futures.
  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, as well as the 1-week precipitation forecasts for South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices rebounded on the session today as the market saw moderate gains. March corn gained 7 ¼ cents and May futures added 8 cents during the session. 
  • Corn futures saw a short covering rally as the managed money moved to a record short position on last week’s Commitment of Traders report. As of last Tuesday, hedge funds were short of a net 340,723 contracts, pushing through the previous record short position from 2019.
  • The strong price action on Monday has the corn market improved technically as daily charts posted key reversals on the session. With a heavily oversold market, prices could see an additional corrective bounce, despite overall bearish fundamentals.
  • In Brazil, second crop corn plant progress is running well ahead of the 5-year pace. Weather at this point is not an issue, but talk of a possible change in the weather patterns is a focus of the markets, helping lead to the short covering rally.
  • Weekly export shipments for corn were strong last week. US exporters shipped 48.9 mb (1.242 mmt) of corn, which was above expectations. Currently export inspections are up 36% over last year, and slightly ahead of the pace to meet the USDA’s export targets.

Above: On February 26, the May corn contract posted a bullish reversal indicating support just below the market rests just above 400 psychological support near 410. If this support level holds, the market may run into upward resistance between 435 and 450. If 400 support does not hold, further support should come in around 390.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 26,391 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 340,732 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans were mixed throughout the day with prices significantly lower near midday before rebounding into the close. The front months ended higher, while the November contract was slightly lower. This was also the theme for soybean meal and oil in which the front months gained on the deferred months, although the deferred contracts in meal did settle lower on the day.
  • Soybean export inspections were within expectations totaling 35.8 mb for the week ending Thursday, February 22. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 1,214 mb, which is down 22% from the previous year. No flash sales were reported today or last week, and last week’s export sales report was a marketing year low with net cancellations.
  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 38.03% complete which compares with 34.51% at this time last year. With Brazil’s harvest ongoing, cash soybeans have fallen to prices significantly below those in the US, and there have been recent reports of Brazilian soybeans being imported into the US.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 2,177 contracts of soybeans last week leaving them short 136,677 contracts. This is the largest net short position in soybeans since 2019. Today’s reversal could be an indication that the funds are beginning to lighten this short position, but it could also have to do with first notice day for March futures which is this Thursday.

Above: After posting a recent high just above 1190, the market has drifted lower into 1140 support from October 2020. If 1140 support fails, the next major support level may come in between 1040 and 1050. Otherwise, 1190 – 1205 may act as resistance if prices turn back around.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,177 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 136,677 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finally stopped the bleeding, posting a higher close in all three classes and a bullish reversal alongside corn and soybeans. Early weakness, in part due to another lower close for Matif futures, was rebuffed. However, there was no major news to trigger this rally, indicating that it was likely technical in nature.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 17.7 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections to 463 mb. All things considered this is a decent number for the week. But with that said, inspections are still down 18% from last year and running behind the USDA’s estimated pace.
  • On a bearish note, Russian wheat exports continue to dominate. Their FOB wheat values are said to have declined again, to between $210 and $213 per mt. This may limit the upside potential of the US market for some time to come.
  • Between February 14 and 20, funds are said to have added just over 18,000 short wheat contracts, bringing their combined Chicago and Kansas City net short position to just over 110,000 contracts. While not a record like in corn, it is still a large number of contracts that keeps the market primed for a potential short covering rally.   
  • According to Ukrainian officials, 160 tons of their grain was destroyed at a railway station in Poland due to large protests. While 160 tons is not much in the big picture, the reasoning for the destruction is what is important; Polish farmers are said to be protesting unfair competition from Ukraine. Despite a major war in their nation, the Ukrainians have been very successful at getting grain exported, even with the closure of the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, the next major support level below 555 may come in around 540.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 12,852 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 68,524 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,499 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 41,907 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Front month Minneapolis wheat continues to show signs of being oversold, and is supportive if prices follow through from the bullish reversal on February 26. If they follow through to the upside, resistance may come in around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below the market may come in near 600.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 20. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 665 contracts between February 14 – 20, bringing their total position to a net short 24,167 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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2-23 End of Day: Disappointing Export Sales Contribute to the Grain Market’s Slide

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Mediocre corn export sales that came in at a 6-week low, along with lower soybeans added to the negativity in the corn market that closed lower for the third day in a row and below 400 for the first time since October of 2020.
  • Dismal export sales for soybeans at 2.1 mb and a marketing year low weighed heavily on March soybeans which posted a new contract low and low close.
  • Soybean meal and oil both closed lower on the day adding to the negative tone in the soybean complex. While the March contracts in both meal and oil posted new contract lows and low closes, March Board crush margins posted a 5-cent gain.
  • All three wheat classes closed lower on the day with Chicago and Minneapolis the weakest of the three. Pressure from lower corn and soybeans, along with weaker Matif wheat added to the negativity. For the week, both Chicago and KC were able to hold earlier gains while Minneapolis posted a net loss.
  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, as well as the 2-week precipitation forecasts for South America courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout over 2.1 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a sizable net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. For now, Grain Market Insider continues to sit tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring or even summer.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures stayed under selling pressure for the third consecutive session as the March futures lost 6 ¼ cents and May lost 5 cents. This is the 12 lower session in the last 16 trading sessions, and March corn closed under the key 400 psychological price level. The last time corn closed under 400 was in October of 2020.
  • The month of February has been difficult on the corn market as prices were down 16 ¾ cents on the week and have lost 48 ½ cents so far this month. This month saw a combination of factors, basis contract pricing, March option expiration, and First notice day approaching on the 29th, which have all added to the market volatility.
  • Weekly export sales for corn were within trade expectations, but softer compared to previous weeks.  Last week, the US sold 32.3 mb (820,400 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year. This was down 37% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. Total sales are still running up 29% from last year.
  • The Brazilian corn market traded sharply lower on the session, testing limit down during the day. Rumors of China buying Ukrainian corn at less than $230/mt, cheaper than US and Brazil prices pressured the corn market.
  • On Thursday’s report, weekly ethanol production ticked up last week to 1.084 million barrels/day, up 5% from last year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 25.5 million barrels, and 108.6 million bushels of corn were used last week in ethanol production, which is still running ahead of USDA expected pace for the marketing year.

Above: The corn market continues to drift lower with little bullish input to trigger a turnaround from extreme oversold conditions. Psychological 400 support rests just below the current market, with further support down around 390. If prices can hold support and turn back higher, overhead resistance remains between 450 and 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly lower for a third consecutive day and have lost 45 cents just within these last three days. Export sales were very poor, weather in South America has been favorable, and non-commercials continue to sell contracts, potentially generating new record short positions. March soybeans made a new contract low today and both soybean meal and oil were lower as well.
  • For the week, March soybeans lost 39 ¼ cents to end at 1133, March soybean meal lost $14.10 to $331.50, and March soybean oil lost 1.57 cents to 44.02 cents.
  • The USDA reported an increase of only 2.1 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, which was way below expectations and a marketing year low. There were net cancellations by China which could become a theme with Brazilian soybeans so much cheaper than the US. Year to date commitments are now 20% below that of last year. Export shipments for last week of 44.0 mb were significantly higher than the 19.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.720 bb. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Indonesia.
  • In Brazil, soybean basis fell today and soybeans FOB in Paranagua have reportedly fallen to 80 cents below March futures in the US. This comes amid harvest in which Brazil is over 30% completed. Estimates for total production are still within a very wide range with the lower estimates at 145 mmt and the USDA’s highest estimate at 156 mmt.

Above: After posting a recent high just above 1190, the market has drifted lower into 1140 support from October 2020. If 1140 support fails, the next major support level may come in between 1040 and 1050. Otherwise, 1190 – 1205 may act as resistance if prices turn back around.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes closed lower today, in tandem with Paris milling wheat. Pressure stemmed from another day of lower corn and soybean prices. Additionally, US wheat may be coming out of dormancy early, due to the recent warm weather. The Plains states have chances of moisture in the second week of the forecast but may be warmer than normal through the end of the month. However, conditions look much better when compared to a year ago at this time.
  • Weekly wheat export sales were on the disappointing side. The USDA reported an increase of 8.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 1.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week were only 13.7 mb, which is behind the 17.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 725 mb. However, commitments at 655 mb are up 6% from last year and above the USDA’s estimated pace.
  • According to FranceAgriMer, as of February 19, French wheat was rated just 69% good to very good. For reference, the crop was rated at 95% a year ago. Weather is cited as the reason for the decline. France already struggled to get the crop sown due to wet weather late in the planting season.
  • Through the week ending February 17, Mississippi River barge shipments declined 8.4% from the previous week at 535k versus 584k tons. However, wheat in particular saw an 18.5% increase in shipments, at 32k versus 27k tons. Although, year on year wheat shipments are down 10.3%.
  • In general, there has not been much news directly affecting wheat this week. This may indicate that the back and forth trade is technical in nature. When bulls think price has gone low enough, they start to buy, and the funds may be selling any rallies. And though wheat ended the week with a negative tone, March Chicago wheat did gain 13 cents on a weekly basis.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength with the goal of having zero bushels unpriced by the end of January. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Since early September, the July ’25 contract has been mostly rangebound with 632 at the low end and 685 at the top. Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year up to this point has been to sit tight. Though if prices rally toward the upper end of this range, we will consider taking advantage of the rally’s historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: So far downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, and that combined with the fact that the market continues to show signs of being oversold, could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance level. For now, if prices can continue to proceed higher the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. If they turn back lower, initial support remains near 555, with the next major support level down around 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 730.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Front month KC wheat appears very oversold, and the reversal higher indicates support around 555. If prices continue to appreciate, they may run into overhead resistance between 590 and 600. If prices retreat back through 555, the next major support level remains below the market around 530.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 700 – 725.
  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell the remainder of your July ‘24 660 KC Wheat puts at approximately 113 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 660 KC wheat puts for approximately 30 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside for both KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat (KC puts were recommended for Minneapolis due to KC wheat’s greater liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat). At the time, US export demand was very weak, and July KC wheat had just broken through long-term support near 738. The breaking of 738 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time, the market continued to move lower, and the remaining put options have done their job of protecting the value of unsold 2024 bushels and have increased in value by approximately 275%.
  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since rejecting the bullish reversal on Feb. 20, the May ’24 contract traded through 650 support and continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive if a bullish catalyst presents itself to turn prices back higher. If prices progress to the downside, the next major support level below the market may come in near 600.

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