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4-26 End of Day: Mixed Close as Wheat Continues Higher with Corn and Beans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn closed just off the day’s low following choppy two sided trade that continued to consolidate in narrow range from Tuesday, with today’s May options expiration possibly contributing to the late day weakness.

  • Soybeans also saw choppy back and forth trade in a rather tight 8 ½ cent range that closed just above the 20-day moving average. Weakness in soybean meal with likely profit taking from the week added resistance.

  • The wheat complex ended the week strong with gains seen across the board for the sixth consecutive day. Overbought conditions and strength in the US dollar may have contributed to the weakness in the Chicago contracts, which closed the day well off their highs. While concerns for further dryness in the HRW growing areas helped support KC into the close.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, US 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Although July ’24 corn has rallied beyond the congestion range on the front month continuous charts, it remains below its high of 460 that was posted on March 28. With little fresh bullish fundamental news, managed funds have maintained a significant net short position. While the fund’s large net short position likely sparked the recent rise in prices and could fuel a more significant upside move as we move through planting and into the growing season, the market now shows signs of being overbought. Despite potential obstacles along the way, overall market conditions and seasonal tendencies remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Choppy, two-sided trade in the corn market to end the week. Overall strength in the wheat market helped support corn futures, but prices failed to push through resistance before turning softer into the close. For the week, July corn futures closed 7 cents higher.

  • May options expired today, and that may have accounted for the end of session selling pressure. Price volatility may continue Monday with First Notice Day for May grain contracts on Tuesday, May 30.

  • Weather models are shifting to a warmer and more active pattern going into early May. The western corn belt likely showed good planting activity and progress, but the eastern corn belt saw limited progress. Last week, corn planting reached 12% complete nationally.

  • Recent rainfall has proven beneficial for areas experiencing moisture deficits, as evidenced by Thursday’s drought monitor maps, which indicated a contraction of the drought area. Moreover, forecasted rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to contribute to further moisture recovery. Presently, approximately 23% of corn acres are affected by some form of drought.

  • Cash market have likely helped support corn futures this week. The average US corn basis levels have firmed in most cash markets. End users are trying to pull bushels in to meet demand, as producers are focused on planting this year’s crop.

Above: The corn market continues to struggle to rally with overhead resistance remaining around 460 in the July contract. A breakout above there could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If prices break to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, managed money retains a considerable net short position near 168,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the day with this being the third consecutive lower close in the July contract after three days in a row of gains. Prices have faltered and been unable to close above the July 20-day moving average for the past two days. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher along with both palm and crude oil.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 11 ½ cents at 1177 ¼, November soybeans gained 13 ¾ at 1174 ¾, July soybean meal gained $1.50 at $344.70, and July soybean oil gained 0.60 cents at 45.54 cents. While soybeans bounced well off their recent lows, there was less bullish news regarding them than in corn and wheat.

  • The Brazilian harvest is essentially complete, whereas Argentina’s crop is in good shape with harvest underway. Meanwhile, US soybean planting is moving along with wet conditions. This compares to corn which is struggling in South America and may see production revisions lower.

  • In Argentina, the 23/24 corn harvest is now called at 19.8% complete which compares to 17.2% the previous week. Prices may have found some support with leaf hopper insects transmitting a disease among the Argentine crop that will cause yields to drop. Additionally, the corn crop is dealing with dryness and heat.

Above: Since posting a bullish reversal on April 19, the market has struggled to stay above 1190. A close above the April 24, 1191 ¾ high could allow the market to run and test the 1227 March high. Otherwise, support below the market remains between 1145 and 1140, if prices slide back toward key support and the February low of 1128 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat managed to eke out another positive close in Chicago futures, although they finished well below the daily highs. Conversely, KC and Minneapolis contracts displayed more strength, with July Chicago rallying above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July 2023. However, the rally encountered strong resistance as it retreated below the 628 level by the close.

  • Storms sweeping across the central Midwest are expected to bring drought relief to many areas, although regions such as southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas were largely unaffected. This discrepancy may result in further declines to the HRW crop rating next week and could explain why KC wheat closed notably stronger than Chicago wheat today.

  • The US Dollar Index continues to chop around with back-and-forth action. Despite being in a downtrend since mid-April, its strength today may have contributed to the decline in Chicago futures by the close. Moreover, technical indicators suggesting that Chicago wheat is overbought may have added to the weakness.

  • The International Grains Council forecasts a US wheat crop of 1.94 billion bushels for 24/25, potentially the largest in eight years. This projection could limit long-term upside movement for futures from a fundamental perspective.

  • The European Commission has revised down its estimate of Europe’s 24/25 soft wheat crop to 102.2 mmt, compared to 120.8 mmt in March. Additionally, exports are forecasted at 31 mmt, with stocks at 12.2 mmt. This decline may be attributed to excessive wet weather in certain areas, with the French wheat crop now rated at just 63% good to excellent, the lowest in four years.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After holding downside support near 550, Chicago wheat staged a rally, likely fueled by Managed fund short covering and HRW crop concerns, that has taken it through the major moving averages on the continuous chart, and towards last Decembers highs. Although bearish fundamentals remain, and the market shows signs of being overbought which adds downside risk, Managed funds quite possibly still hold a large net short position that has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should any crop more concerns arise as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in August we recommended buying July ’24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Since then, we recommended exiting half of the original position to get closer to a net neutral cost, and then most recently, we recommended exiting another half of the remaining position to lock in further gains in case prices continue higher, leaving 25% of the original position in place. We continue to target a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus July ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open July ’24 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting any of the last 25%.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: July Chicago’s close above the 200-day MA opens the door to test the December high of 630. On the downside, if prices retreat, initial support is likely around 575 and the 50-day moving average (currently 561).

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between the end of February and the middle of April, KC wheat was mostly rangebound between the mid 590’s on the topside and mid 550’s down low, with little to move prices higher. All the while Managed funds continued adding to their large net short positions. Toward the end of April, dryness in the Black Sea region and the US HRW growing areas started becoming more concerning and triggered a short covering rally across the wheat complex, driving prices to levels not seen since last December. While low world export prices continue to be a drag on US demand and prices, and it is likely that Managed funds covered a significant portion of their net short positions, it is also quite possible that they remain short the market. Which could still push prices higher if production concerns persist.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 HRW wheat production. Dryness in the Southwestern Plains and Russia, along with elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea spurred Managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions in the wheat complex. As a result, the July ’24 KC wheat futures contract is about 50 cents higher than our previous old crop sales recommendation, and near both the 200-day moving average and the resistance area of last December’s highs. Considering this rally may primarily be weather driven and could be short-lived, as well as being limited on time before the 2024 crop is harvested, we advise you to take advantage of these elevated prices to sell another portion of your 2023 HRW wheat inventory.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat production. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend with no significant selling opportunities, while many uncertainties remain that could drive prices even higher. The market is now approximately 90 cents off the March low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 25% retracement of the recent downtrend back toward the July high. Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2024 crop.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market’s ability to close above the 610 – 640 congestion area puts it on track to further test overhead resistance in the 678 – 700 area. Should the market fall back, initial support may be found near 640 and again between 605 and 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Between mid-February and much of April Minneapolis wheat traded mostly sideways to lower with little bullish fundamental news to drive prices higher. In late April, driven by world wheat crop concerns and dryness in the HRW growing areas, and fueled by likely Managed fund short covering, Minneapolis wheat rallied back toward the January highs. Although bullish fundamentals remain scarce, and the market shows signs of being overbought, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, Managed funds quite possibly still hold a net short position, that could fuel an extended rally if more production concerns arise.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend due to lower world prices, with no significant rallies to take advantage of. While many unknowns remain that could move prices even higher, the market is now more than 50 cents off its low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 23% retracement back to the July high. Grain Market Insider advises taking advantage of this rally, and these still historically good prices, to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s test of the 700 – 712 area has put it into overbought territory and is at risk of falling back. If that happens, initial support may come between 675 and 660, with further support down toward 632 and 625 ¼.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-25 End of Day: Wheat Complex Moves Higher Once Again; Strong Export Sales for Corn

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures were higher on the day, battling back from yesterday’s losses. Strong weekly export sales and a continued move higher in wheat futures helped aid today’s move in corn.

  • Soybean futures ended the day mixed but well off of their session lows. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil futures were higher with outside support from higher crude oil prices.

  • All three wheats closed higher today marking the fifth consecutive daily close higher across the board. Dryness concerns in the US Plains as well as weather concerns around the world continue to cause likely short covering helping to move wheat prices higher.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the US 7-day precipitation forecast, courtesy of the UNL, NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Although July ’24 corn has rallied beyond the congestion range on the front month continuous charts, it remains below its high of 460 that was posted on March 28. With little fresh bullish fundamental news, managed funds have maintained a significant net short position while the market became oversold. The market’s oversold conditions, combined with the large fund net short position, likely sparked the recent rise in prices and could fuel a more significant upside move as we move through planting and into the growing season. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles along the way, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A good week of exports sales and continued strength in the wheat markets supported corn futures. Corn prices are consolidating at the top of this week’s range going into Friday trade. For the week to this point, July corn traded 9 cents higher, and December added 10 cents.

  • USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. USDA announced 1.3 MMT (51.2 mb) of old crop sales and 262,000 MT (10.3 mb) for new crop last week. 

  • Even as the corn market has rallied this week, average U.S. corn basis levels have firmed in most cash markets. End users are trying to pull bushels in to meet demand, as producers are focused on planting this year’s crop.

  • Weather models are predicting warmer but wetter-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks. The current corn planting pace is off to a good start, with areas in the south and the western corn belt progressing quickly. The potential for increased precipitation could slow progress going into May.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, managed money retains a considerable net short position near 168,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day mixed again with the front months lower and the new crop contracts higher just as they were yesterday. Soybean futures were significantly lower near midday but recovered into the close with July posting a small loss and ending just below the 40-day moving average. Soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil was higher along with palm oil.

  • Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with just 12 mb reported total, 8 mb for 23/24 and 4 mb for 24/25. This was below the lower range of trade expectations and puts old crop commitments down 18% from the previous year. Soybean meal sales were on the high end of expectations at 308k tons, and soybean oil sales were also above expectations.

  • Brazilian soybean exports are seen reaching 13.48 million tons for the month of April which compares to a forecast of 13.74 million tons the previous week. The strengthening of their currency, the real, makes importing Brazilian beans more expensive and could cause exports to slow slightly.

  • In South America, Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearly complete, and Argentina is forecast to get a break from the rain which should help their harvest advance. Argentina is expected to be about 25% complete by the end of this week. In the US, rains have delayed soybean plantings in some areas, but warm weather is in the forecast and should help with emergence.

Above: April 19 July soybeans posted a key bullish reversal, marking support just below the market near 1145 which coincides with the March 6 low of 1140 ¼. Should this support area hold, prices could potentially rebound and test the March high near 1227. Below 1140 ¼ lies, key support near the February low of 1128 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes rallied again today; this marks the fifth consecutive higher close for May Chicago futures. Paris milling wheat futures are also on the rise, with the September contract breaking above the 200-day moving average for the first time since late July of 2023. The US Dollar Index was also lower today, and from a big picture perspective has been declining since April 16; this may be aiding the wheat rally.

  • US wheat weekly export sales were poor, with only 3.0 mb reported for 23/24. However, 13.7 mb were reported for 24/25 which, while not stellar, does look a bit better. Additionally, last week’s shipments of 21.1 mb were above the 17.1 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s 23/24 export estimate of 710 mb.

  • According to Pakistan’s Federal Committee on Agriculture, the country will see a grain harvest of 29.7 mmt this year, which is under their 32 mmt target. Wheat production is estimated to be up 5.4% from a year ago, but they may still end up needing to import. In addition, there is still talk that India will need to import 3-5 mmt of wheat as well. Their supplies are said to be at a 16-year low, after the government sold wheat out of the reserves to reduce food prices.

  • Dry conditions are expected in Australia for most areas over the next week, but western regions and the east coast may see some shower activity. In any case, soil moisture is fair to poor in wheat planting areas. This may lead to some planting delays as farmers wait for moisture levels to improve.

  • According to the USDA, as of April 23 about 30% of the US winter wheat area is in drought, a sharp increase from 24% last week. With rain set to hit most of the Midwest this week and into the weekend, some of the dryness may be alleviated, however. In addition, 26% of US spring wheat acres are said to be in drought, unchanged from a week ago.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After failing to break through downside support around 550 and likely fueled by the large managed fund net short position, July ’24 Chicago wheat has rallied through the 100-day moving average on the front month continuous chart for the first time since January. Although bearish fundamentals remain, the fund’s large net short position has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should any crop concerns arise as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in August we recommended buying July ’24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Since then, we recommended exiting half of the original position to get closer to a net neutral cost, and then most recently, we recommended exiting another half of the remaining position to lock in further gains in case prices continue higher, leaving 25% of the original position in place. We continue to target a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus July ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open July ’24 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting any of the last 25%.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: July Chicago’s close above the 200-day MA opens the door to test the December high of 630. Although, it may encounter resistance between 617 and 622 before reaching that target. On the downside, if prices retreat, initial support is likely around 548, followed by 538.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top. Even though demand fundamentals remain weak, we are entering the more dynamic part of the growing season, and with prices above 605, and considering managed funds still hold a considerable net short position, the market may still have more rally potential if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 HRW wheat production. Since the end of February, the market has been moving sideways, constrained by slow export demand and low world export prices, which have capped US prices. July ’24 has returned to the upper end of the 555 – 605 trading range and is approaching resistance near the 100-day moving average. Given that time is getting more limited before the ‘24 KC crop gets harvested, Grain Market Insider is now looking for less aggressive rallies to get the last of the ‘23 KC crop moved.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat production. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend with no significant selling opportunities, while many uncertainties remain that could drive prices even higher. The market is now approximately 90 cents off the March low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 25% retracement of the recent downtrend back toward the July high. Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2024 crop.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The breakout and close above the March 10 high of 605 ¼ on April 22, opened up the possibility to test January’s 610 – 640 congestion area, a close above which could lead to further advancement toward more significant resistance in the 678 – 700 area. Should the market fall back and not rally, initial support may be found between the 50-day moving average and 678, with key support near the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although an overall lack of bullish drivers remains, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that can potentially fuel a short covering rally.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend due to lower world prices, with no significant rallies to take advantage of. While many unknowns remain that could move prices even higher, the market is now more than 50 cents off its low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 23% retracement back to the July high. Grain Market Insider advises taking advantage of this rally, and these still historically good prices, to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the March high of 677 ¼ could pave the way for further upward movement and a potential test of the 700 – 712 area. That said, the market is beginning to show signs of being overbought, which can be negative if prices reverse to the downside. If that happens, initial support remains between 632 and 625 ¼, with major psychological support down toward 600 – 595.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-24 End of Day: KC Wheat Leads the Wheat Complex Higher on More Potential Short Covering

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite another strong session in the wheat complex, the corn market disappointed as it failed to continue to the upside and posted a bearish reversal, closing just above yesterday’s low.

  • July soybeans were unable to continue its three-day rally after piercing its 50-day moving average and hitting resistance. Soybean oil, which closed the day in a bearish reversal, likely contributed to the resistance in soybeans as it posted a bearish reversal.

  • Higher Matif wheat, coupled with global war and weather concerns likely helped drive additional short covering and push the wheat complex higher for the fourth day in a row. The decline in open interest in the most active July contracts for both Chicago and Minneapolis in each session since Friday suggests that traders are unwinding their short positions.

  • To see the updated US 5 day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Although July ’24 corn has rallied beyond the congestion range on the front month continuous charts, it remains below its high of 460 that was posted on March 28. With little fresh bullish fundamental news, managed funds have maintained a significant net short position while the market became oversold. The market’s oversold conditions, combined with the large fund net short position, likely sparked the recent rise in prices and could fuel a more significant upside move as we move through planting and into the growing season. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles along the way, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a disappointing day in the corn market as prices faded during the session. Even a strong wheat market for the day failed to help lift corn prices higher. Weak ethanol production numbers and position squaring for the end of the week limited corn market gains.

  • The next few sessions could bring choppy trade to the corn market. May basis contracts will need to be priced or rolled in the next handful of days. May corn options expire on Friday, and First Notice day for May futures is April 30. All three events will likely bring some volatility and price movement into the corn market.

  • Weekly ethanol production slipped to 954 thousand barrels/day last week. This was down 1.3% year-over-year and was the second lowest production week for the marketing year. 95.5 mb of corn were used in the ethanol grind last week, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. Expectations are for ales to range between 400,000 – 900,000 mt for old crop and 25,000 – 350,000 MT for new crop. Last week, export sales were soft with a combined 566,000 mt of new sales.

  • Weather models are predicting warmer but wetter-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks. The current corn planting pace is off to a good start, but increased precipitation could slow progress going into May.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, managed money retains a considerable net short position near 168,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans finished the day mixed with May and July ending lower and the deferred months higher. The July contract ended its three-day winning streak after meeting resistance at the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Soybean meal closed higher today while soybean oil was lower as it followed palm oil down.

  • The Brazilian soybean harvest is nearly completed, but the southern region where work is not completely done is forecast to receive rains which could delay the progress. In the US, rains are forecast to fall throughout the Corn Belt which could delay planting but will also benefit soil moisture ahead of a potentially dry La Nina year.

  • In South America, the Brazilian real has begun to rebound and Brazilian basis levels have moved higher which makes Brazilian soybeans more expensive to the rest of the world. While the US is still not competitive with Brazil, it could push some export business to the US.

  • Before today, soybeans had three consecutively higher closes which made for a gain of 33 cents in the July contract. A large part of that was likely short covering ahead of first notice day on April 30, but open interest declined from Friday through Tuesday which could indicate that funds are not opening new short positions in the July contract.

Above: April 19 July soybeans posted a key bullish reversal, marking support just below the market near 1145 which coincides with the March 6 low of 1140 ¼. Should this support area hold, prices could potentially rebound and test the March high near 1227. Below 1140 ¼ lies, key support near the February low of 1128 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Again, wheat managed to close higher across the board in all three classes, despite the US Dollar firming up today. Support came from higher trade in Matif futures, as well as the addition of global weather and war premium. All this combined has likely led to some short covering by the managed funds.

  • May Chicago wheat rallied through resistance at the 100-day moving average today and closed above this level for the first time since late January. The next major resistance might be at the 200-day moving average, which is around 619. May Chicago futures have not traded above that level since July of last year.

  • While a significant portion of the US Midwest is forecasted to receive beneficial rains starting later this week, the Southwestern Plains are anticipated to be excluded. This situation might contribute to the continued deterioration of HRW wheat crop ratings in that region, although SRW ratings may benefit from the rainfall.

  • Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia have been in a hot and dry pattern, threatening their wheat production. Although some moisture is expected soon, net drying is still expected, and the addition of weather premium may be in part why the market has rallied strongly over the past several sessions.

  • According to APK Inform, Ukraine has shipped 40 mmt of grain as of April 24, comparable to last year’s 40.7 mmt at the same time. Since July, Ukraine’s wheat exports have reached 15.2 mmt, slightly lower than the USDA’s estimate of 17.5 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon estimates that Russian wheat exports for April will reach 4.6 mmt, an increase from 4.4 mmt last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After failing to break through downside support around 550 and likely fueled by the large managed fund net short position, July ’24 Chicago wheat has rallied through the 100-day moving average on the front month continuous chart for the first time since January. Although bearish fundamentals remain, the fund’s large net short position has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should any crop concerns arise as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in August we recommended buying July ’24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Since then, we recommended exiting half of the original position to get closer to a net neutral cost, and then most recently, we recommended exiting another half of the remaining position to lock in further gains in case prices continue higher, leaving 25% of the original position in place. We continue to target a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus July ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open July ’24 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting any of the last 25%.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: July Chicago’s close above the 200-day MA opens the door to test the December high of 630. Although, it may encounter resistance between 617 and 622 before reaching that target. On the downside, if prices retreat, initial support is likely around 548, followed by 538.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top. Even though demand fundamentals remain weak, we are entering the more dynamic part of the growing season, and with prices above 605, and considering managed funds still hold a considerable net short position, the market may still have more rally potential if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 HRW wheat production. Since the end of February, the market has been moving sideways, constrained by slow export demand and low world export prices, which have capped US prices. July ’24 has returned to the upper end of the 555 – 605 trading range and is approaching resistance near the 100-day moving average. Given that time is getting more limited before the ‘24 KC crop gets harvested, Grain Market Insider is now looking for less aggressive rallies to get the last of the ‘23 KC crop moved.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The breakout and close above the March 10 high of 605 ¼ on April 22, opened up the possibility to test January’s 610 – 640 congestion area, a close above which could lead to further advancement toward more significant resistance in the 678 – 700 area. Should the market fall back and not rally, initial support may be found between the 50-day moving average and 678, with key support near the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although an overall lack of bullish drivers remains, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that can potentially fuel a short covering rally.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 Spring wheat crop. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend due to lower world prices, with no significant rallies to take advantage of. While many unknowns remain that could move prices even higher, the market is now more than 50 cents off its low and entering an area of heavy resistance that coincides with a 23% retracement back to the July high. Grain Market Insider advises taking advantage of this rally, and these still historically good prices, to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market’s close above the March high of 677 ¼ could pave the way for further upward movement and a potential test of the 700 – 712 area. That said, the market is beginning to show signs of being overbought, which can be negative if prices reverse to the downside. If that happens, initial support remains between 632 and 625 ¼, with major psychological support down toward 600 – 595.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-23 End of Day: Higher Wheat Complex Lends Support to Corn and Beans

ByLisa Heder

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • For the third day in a row, the wheat complex lent support to the corn market which saw follow through buying after yesterday’s close above the 50-day moving average for the first time in three weeks.

  • Soybeans also closed higher for the third consecutive day while posting a 33-cent gain over the same time. Short covering in the front months likely led bull spreading across the market as the nearby contracts gained on the deferred ahead of May options expiration this Friday and First Notice Day next week.

  • Another day of potential short covering by speculative traders led the wheat complex to achieve yet another day of strong gains, pushing both Chicago and KC to close above their respective 100-day moving averages.

  • To see the updated US 7 day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1 week precipitation forecast for Brazil and Argentina, courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

Although July ’24 corn has rallied beyond the congestion range on the front month continuous charts, it remains below its high of 460 that was posted on March 28. With little fresh bullish fundamental news, managed funds have maintained a significant net short position while the market became oversold. The market’s oversold conditions, combined with the large fund net short position, likely sparked the recent rise in prices and could fuel a more significant upside move as we move through planting and into the growing season. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles along the way, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A strong wheat market supported the corn market for the third consecutive day, but technical resistance and large supply picture limited gains.

  • Corn futures saw follow-through buying as the nearby contracts closed above the 50-day moving average on Monday for the first time in over three weeks. May futures also posted their highest daily close since February 9.

  • The planting pace is still running ahead of the 5-year average.  On the weekly crop progress report, corn planting reached 12% complete. This is up 6% from last week and 2% ahead of the 5-year pace.

  • Weather models are predicting warmer, but wetter-than-normal conditions over the next two weeks. The current corn planting pace is off to a good start, but increased precipitation could slow progress going into May.

  • The next few sessions could bring choppy trade to the corn market. May basis contracts will need to be priced or rolled in the next handful of days, May corn options expire on Friday this week, and first notice day for May futures is April 30.  All three events will likely bring some volatility and price movement into the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Corn percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, managed money retains a considerable net short position near 168,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day with the July contract gaining 33 cents since last Thursday’s close. Today, July beans may have met some resistance at the 50-day moving average, and a rally above that level could be significant. Futures were bull spread with the front months gaining on the deferred, likely as a result of short covering ahead of first notice day on April 30. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • The USDA’s Crop Progress report was released yesterday afternoon and showed that 8% of the crop has been planted, which compares to 3% last week and is above the 5-year average of 4%. Recent rains have significantly improved soil moisture levels which gets planting off to a good start.

  • In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearly complete while Argentina’s soybean bushels will be coming soon. Brazilian soybean prices remain lower than those of the US, which is likely to keep impacting US export levels. As Argentina’s harvest will result in a significant amount of soybean meal for export, there could be added pressure on US soybean meal prices.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans were encouraging totaling 16.0 mb for last week which was above the average needed to meet the USDA estimate for the third week, but total inspections are still 18.2% below last year.

Above: April 19 July soybeans posted a key bullish reversal, marking support just below the market near 1145 which coincides with the March 6 low of 1140 ¼. Should this support area hold, prices could potentially rebound and test the March high near 1227. Below 1140 ¼ lies, key support near the February low of 1128 ½.

Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had another strong close, with double digit gains in all three US classes, despite a neutral to lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. The US Dollar Index did drop today, which may have lent some support. From a technical perspective, both July Chicago and KC wheat closed above their 100-day moving averages today, which may now act as support if the market drops back.

  • Speculative traders are believed to be buyers in the ag complex yesterday and today. It will take some time for this to be reflected, if true, in the Commitments of Traders report. If funds are exiting short positions it may help to explain the recent rally over the past few sessions.

  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its crop progress report. The winter wheat crop saw a larger than expected good to excellent rating reduction of 5% from last week, to 50%. Moreover, 17% of the crop is currently headed, surpassing the average of 13%. Additionally, the spring wheat crop is 15% planted, exceeding the 10% average and marking a significant increase from the 7% reported last week.

  • According to the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resource Unit, warmer than average temperatures in spring along with adequate rainfall have been a benefit to crops across most of the continent. However, too much wet weather in northwestern Europe during the fall and winter may mean that some areas are unlikely to fully recover.

  • The wheat planting region in Brazil is expected to decline due mainly to high production costs. Some areas of central Brazil have already seen wheat planting begin, but end users in Brazil may focus more on imports of wheat from Argentina, which is more competitive vs the Brazilian spot market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After failing to break through downside support around 550 and likely fueled by the large managed fund net short position, July ’24 Chicago wheat has rallied through the 100-day moving average on the front month continuous chart for the first time since January. Although bearish fundamentals remain, the fund’s large net short position has the potential to drive an extended short covering rally should any crop concerns arise as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in August we recommended buying July ’24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Since then, we recommended exiting half of the original position to get closer to a net neutral cost, and then most recently, we recommended exiting another half of the remaining position to lock in further gains in case prices continue higher, leaving 25% of the original position in place. We continue to target a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus July ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open July ’24 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting any of the last 25%.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: July Chicago wheat rallied through resistance and the recent high of 574 ¾ before encountering heavier selling near the 200-day moving average (MA) and psychological resistance around 600. A close above the 200-day MA could pave the way for testing the December high of 630, with resistance levels between 617 and 622 before reaching that target. On the downside, if prices retreat, initial support is likely around 548, followed by 538.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top. Even though demand fundamentals remain weak, we are entering the more dynamic part of the growing season, and with prices above 605, and considering managed funds still hold a considerable net short position, the market may still have more rally potential if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 HRW wheat production. Since the end of February, the market has been moving sideways, constrained by slow export demand and low world export prices, which have capped US prices. July ’24 has returned to the upper end of the 555 – 605 trading range and is approaching resistance near the 100-day moving average. Given that time is getting more limited before the ‘24 KC crop gets harvested, Grain Market Insider is now looking for less aggressive rallies to get the last of the ‘23 KC crop moved.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The breakout and close above the March 10 high of 605 ¼ on April 22, opened up the possibility to test January’s 610 – 640 congestion area, a close above which could lead to further advancement toward more significant resistance in the 678 – 700 area. Should the market fall back and not rally, initial support may be found between the 50-day moving average and 678, with key support near the March low of 551 ½.

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although an overall lack of bullish drivers remains, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent rally closed above the 50-day moving average, signaling a positive trend. However, it fell short of closing above the March high of 677 ¼. A breakthrough above this level could pave the way for further upward movement and a potential test of the 700 – 712 area. If not, initial support remains between 632 and 625 ¼, with major psychological support down toward 600 – 595.

Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-22 End of Day: Potential Short Covering Rally in Wheat Buoys Corn and Beans

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Sharply higher wheat markets and short covering by Managed funds helped briefly push July corn over its 100-day moving average for the first time since early August. Although July corn failed to close above its 100-day ma, it posted its highest close in 11 weeks.

  • Soybeans closed higher with support coming from both soybean meal and oil, along with potential short covering from oversold conditions. July soybeans managed to close higher for the second day in a row and pierce its 20-day moving average, though it settled 4 cents below it.

  • For the week ending April 16, Managed funds sold a record amount of soybean oil contracts for one week, just over 49,000 contracts. Today’s strength in bean oil may likely have been some short covering of those contracts which also carried over to the soybean market.

  • Higher Paris milling wheat, frost concerns in both the US and Europe, and yet another attack on an Odesa grain facility in Ukraine, all may have contributed to today’s short covering rally from oversold conditions in the wheat complex. Both KC and Minneapolis posted a third day of gains, while Chicago recorded its second, with all three classes closing solidly above their respective July contract 50-day moving averages.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong wheat markets and short covering in the agriculture space helped push corn futures higher in the session. The corn market rallied 13 cents off Friday’s low as managed funds covered some of their short positions that were added to last week.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds grew their net short position in the corn market to a total of 279,570 contracts, adding a net 16,010 short contracts as of April 16. Beyond corn, managed funds are holding their largest net short in the Ag commodity sector in 4 ½ years. The ag sector in general saw strong buying across the board on Monday.

  • Weekly corn export inspection hit a marketing year high on Monday at 64 mb (1.64 mmt). Mexico was the top export destination for US corn last week. Total export inspections are up 35% from last year, while the USDA is targeting a 26% year-over-year increase.

  • Despite wet and cool conditions across most of the Corn Belt last week, corn planting is expected to reach 12% complete as of Sunday, April 21, and ahead of the 5-year pace. 

  • Over the next two weeks, weather models are predicting warmer, but wetter than normal conditions into the month of May. The planting pace is off to a good start, but increased precipitation could slow progress going into May.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 16,016 contracts between April 10 – April 16, bringing their total position to a net short 279,570 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply higher for the second consecutive day for a total gain of 27 ½ cents over the past two days. There was not much news to explain this rally, but it is likely that a large amount of short covering was occurring, and wheat was the primary leader in the grain complex today. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, but soybean oil posted the majority of the gains.

  • For the week ending Thursday, April 18, soybean inspections totaled 16.0 mb which were within the range of trade guesses. Total inspections for 23/24 now total 1.414 billion bushels which is down 18% from last year, and the USDA is estimating total soybean exports at 1.720 bb which would be down 14%.

  • A large part of the recent selloff in soybeans has been due to the decline in exports from last year. This morning, it was reported that Chinese soybean imports from the US have been cut in half for the month of March while Brazilian imports increased by nearly the same amount. This is not particularly surprising as Brazilian soybeans are much less expensive than US soybeans, and China’s poor hog margins are discouraging feed consumption.

  • As of April 16, managed funds reportedly sold 28,565 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 167,875 contracts. This puts funds near their record short position but also puts funds in a position to cover those short contracts if fundamentals become more bullish.

Above: April 19 July soybeans posted a key bullish reversal, marking support just below the market near 1145 which coincides with the March 6 low of 1140 ¼. Should this support area hold, prices could potentially rebound and test the March high near 1227. Below 1140 ¼ lies, key support near the February low of 1128 ½.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 28,565 contracts between April 10 – April 16, bringing their total position to a net short 167,875 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed sharply higher today, with gains of over 20 cents in Chicago, with KC and Minneapolis contracts not far behind. Paris milling wheat also jumped, with the May contract gaining 9.00 Euros per metric ton. There wasn’t a lot of fresh news to propel the market higher, which may indicate that it was a correction from oversold conditions with fund short covering. There was some Russian destruction of Ukrainian grain infrastructure over the weekend, but this was likely not the main driver today.

  • Parts of Europe and the US southwestern Plains had frost concerns over the weekend. While damage is not expected to be a major issue, this news may have lent some support to the strong rally in wheat today. In addition, the Canadian prairies are too dry and need some moisture to recharge their soils.

  • According to SovEcon, Russian grain exports last week totaled 1.25 mmt. Of that total, 1.07 mmt was wheat – for reference, the previous week was 1.14 mmt of wheat. Furthermore, they also reduced their estimate of the Russian wheat crop by 1 mmt to 93 mmt due to hot weather that may affect yields.

  • IKAR has said that Russia’s FOB wheat export values ended last week at $208 per mt – that is down from $210 the week prior. IKAR also increased their Russian wheat export estimate by 1 mmt to 53 mmt, vs the USDA at 52 mmt.

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 16.5 mb were decent and in line with expectations. This brings the 23/24 total inspections to 604 mb, down 8% versus last year, with inspections running below the USDA’s estimated pace.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in August we recommended buying July ’24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Since then, we recommended exiting half of the original position to get closer to a net neutral cost, and then most recently, we recommended exiting another half of the remaining position to lock in further gains in case prices continue higher, leaving 25% of the original position in place. We continue to target a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus July ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open July ’24 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting any of the last 25%.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: July Chicago wheat rallied through resistance and the recent high of 574 ¾ before encountering heavier selling near the 200-day moving average (MA) and psychological resistance around 600. A close above the 200-day MA could pave the way for testing the December high of 630, with resistance levels between 617 and 622 before reaching that target. On the downside, if prices retreat, initial support is likely around 548, followed by 538.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,835 contracts between April 10 – April 16, bringing their total position to a net short 96,403 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 HRW wheat production. Since the end of February, the market has been moving sideways, constrained by slow export demand and low world export prices, which have capped US prices. July ’24 has returned to the upper end of the 555 – 605 trading range and is approaching resistance near the 100-day moving average. Given that time is getting more limited before the ‘24 KC crop gets harvested, Grain Market Insider is now looking for less aggressive rallies to get the last of the ‘23 KC crop moved. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,620 contracts between April 10 – April 16, bringing their total position to a net short 49,231 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Despite recent bearish market reversals, July ’24 Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound since posting a low on April 3. Initial support below the market rests near 632, with the 625 ¼ April low just below that. Should these levels hold, and prices rally above 660 – 677 resistance, they could potentially test 700 – 712. If not, the market could drift toward 595 – 600 psychological support.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 16. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,509 contracts between April 10 – April 16, bringing their total position to a net short 25,598 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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4-19 End of Day: Markets Close Higher as Traders Cover Shorts From a Mostly Down Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Increased tensions in the Middle East triggered a short covering rally that helped July corn rally back toward its 50-day moving average. Further support came from fresh corn sales to Mexico, and an EPA announcement allowing an expanded sale of E-15 gasoline.

  • July soybeans closed the day posting a bullish key reversal, on short covering from last night’s Israeli attacks on Iran and another flash sale to unknown destinations. Higher meal and oil, and wet conditions in Argentina also contributed to the positive tenor.  

  • The wheat complex settled higher in all three classes with Chicago showing the most gains. Possible short covering triggered by last night’s events in the Middle East, with higher Matif wheat and carry over strength from neighboring corn and beans adding support.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw a short covering rally to end the week as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran spooked the markets on the overnight session. Friday’s price action was very similar to last Friday’s trade. Even with today’s strength, July corn traded 4 ¼ cents lower on the week and posted its lowest weekly in 7 weeks.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico purchased 216,500 mt (8.5 mb) of corn with 23,000 mt for the current marketing year and 193,500 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an emergency fuel waiver to allow E15 gasoline to be sold nationally during the summer driving season. The program goes into effect on May 1, with sales running from June 1 – September 1. The waiver was passed to limit price shock concerns if tensions increased in the Middle East.

  • Current precipitation and cool weather across the Corn Belt this week have likely limited planting progress in key corn producing states. Corn planting reached 6% complete last week, and concerns will increase if the pace is slow going into May. Typically, the US corn crop is approximately 27-30% planted by the end of April.

  • The corn market may see selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed significantly higher to finish the week after overnight it was reported that Israel sent attack drones to Iran in an escalation of Middle Eastern tensions. This caused crude oil to jump over three dollars at one point before it faded this morning. Soybeans may also have gotten a boost from higher corn as a result of the new EPA decision regarding E15.

  • July soybeans have trended lower over the past month and are now just 25 cents off their low that was made in February. For the week, July soybeans lost 21 cents and November lost 15 ¼ cents. July soybean meal lost $0.90 for the week at $343.20, and July soybean oil lost 1.51 cents ending at 44.94 cents.

  • In South America, there have been reports that Argentina is receiving too much rain which could be detrimental to their soybean crop. Yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 77% of the crop was rated good to excellent, but only 14% has been harvested. Brazil is likely over 90% finished with harvest at this point.

  • In the US, planting has begun in the South and in the central Corn Belt, but many areas of the Midwest are still receiving rain and may have to wait to begin planting. Despite potential delays, these rains are helping areas with some of the worst soil moisture levels.

Above: April 19 July soybeans posted a key bullish reversal, marking support just below the market near 1145 which coincides with the March 6 low of 1140 ¼. Should this support area hold, prices could potentially rebound and test the March high near 1127. Below 1140 ¼ lies, key support near the February low of 1128 ½.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the session with gains in all three classes, supported by higher corn and soybean futures, a higher close for Matif wheat, and consolidation of the US Dollar. Initial strength may have also stemmed from news that Israel attacked Iran. However, the market may have largely brushed this news aside as no greater conflict is expected. This may indicate that the grain complex, in general, is seeing a technical bounce from oversold levels.

  • Much of the Midwest will see a cooler and drier pattern this weekend, and longer range models are predicting better rain chances for the Southern Plains. Western Kansas may miss much of this moisture though, which may keep their winter wheat conditions on the decline.

  • India’s government has reported that wheat stocks as of April 1 totaled 7.5 mmt, down from 8.35 mmt last year and marking the lowest level in 16 years. This could be supportive to futures prices, as India may need to import more wheat to meet their domestic needs.

  • SovEcon has reportedly lowered their forecast of Russian wheat production by 1 mmt to 93 mmt, which is still above the USDA figure of 91.5 mmt. Additionally, the Russian Ag Ministry has raised the wheat export tax by 5% to 3,443 rubles per mt.

  • Farmers in Argentina are said to have called for the elimination of the 12% export tax on wheat, as they deal with high production costs and low domestic prices, affecting profitability. Wheat planting in Argentina is set to begin around mid-May.

  • China expects another bumper crop of grains and oilseeds, attributed partially to increased planting areas for winter wheat and rapeseed. Government subsidies and favorable domestic prices are encouraging farmers to expand their operations as China aims to achieve a total grain production of 50 million metric tons by 2030.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends covering half of the remaining July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts at current market prices, minus fees, and commission. Back in March, Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 Chicago wheat 590 puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 67 cents, the puts were about double their original cost.  In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support around the 550 level.  Given the oversold nature of the market and increased global uncertainty, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 550 area.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Market weakness pushed July ’24 Chicago wheat below the 50-day moving average but 548 ½ initial support remains intact so far. If support holds, and prices rally back, they could still encounter resistance near the recent high of 574 ¾, before testing 585 – 620. Otherwise, if July ‘24 closes below 548 ¼, it remains at risk of drifting further to test the March low of 523 ½.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Despite recent bearish market reversals, July ’24 Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound since posting a low on April 3. Initial support below the market rests near 632, with the 625 ¼ April low just below that. Should these levels hold, and prices rally above 660 – 677 resistance, they could potentially test 700 – 712. If not, the market could drift toward 595 – 600 psychological support.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-18 End of Day: Weakness in Soybeans Weighs on Corn as Wheat Closes Mostly Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Another day of choppy two-sided trade with little fresh news dragged on the corn market. Currency fluctuations and technical selling added pressure to July corn which closed near the bottom of its 5 ¼ cent range.

  • Soybeans came under pressure from weakness in both soybean meal and oil, with the July contract settling just 8 ½ cents off its February low after seeing volatile trade in a 16 ¾ cent range.

  • Soybean oil closed sharply lower on pressure from lower world veg oils and growing monthly stocks numbers from this week’s NOPA crush report. Meanwhile, soybean meal also closed lower, but showed relative resilience, balancing between steady to firmer US basis values and cheaper South American export offers.

  • Support from higher Matif wheat futures and a potential correction from oversold conditions lent support to all three wheat classes that closed mid-range and mostly higher across the board.

  • To see the updated US Drought Monitor, and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures broke through key support levels on Thursday as the stronger US Dollar and selling pressure in the soybean market pushed prices lower. July corn closed at its lowest point since February 27. 

  • The weak price action leaves the market vulnerable to additional selling pressure going into the end of the week. July futures are trading 11 cents lower on the week going into Friday trade.

  • Strong trade in the US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real currency has pressured corn and soybean futures.  The Brazilian Real has closed at 5-month lows against the dollar, which has triggered strong producer selling of both corn and soybeans, weighing on futures prices.

  • Weekly export sales for corn came in at 19.7 mb (501,200 mt). Total new sales were within market expectations, but off 54% from the 4-week average. Total commitments are now at 1.759 billion bushels, up 18% from last year.

  • The corn market may see additional selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above 460 could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed sharply lower today as prices faded continuously throughout the day. The July contract is now just 8 ½ cents away from the 1140 ½ contract low from late February. That level will be important to hold and could act as support. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, but soybean oil posted larger losses, down nearly 2% as palm oil fell.

  • Today’s export sales report for soybeans showed an increase of 17.8 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 9.7 mb for 24/25. Sales commitments now total 1.517 bb and are down 18% from a year ago, versus the USDA’s new projection of down 15%. Last week’s export shipments of 17.7 mb were above the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Indonesia, and Germany.

  • On the positive side, US soybeans are much more competitive with Brazilian offers than they were a year ago. This could mean that the export window in the US could open sooner than it did last year. For the time being, export demand is poor, while domestic demand is at least firm with a record NOPA crush reported on Monday.

  • In South America, the Brazilian harvest is now nearly 90% complete but there are very large discrepancies between production estimates which is odd considering that the work is nearly done. Argentina’s harvest is estimated to be 11% complete as of last week and that estimate will be revised again today or tomorrow.

  • Strong trade in the US Dollar versus the Brazilian Real currency has pressured corn and soybean futures.  The Brazilian Real has closed at 5-month lows against the dollar, which has triggered strong producer selling of both corn and soybeans, weighing on futures prices.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Except for May Chicago, all three wheat classes posted gains today. This is despite a higher US Dollar today, and disappointing export sales. Support came from a higher close in Paris milling wheat futures, along with a possible correction from technically oversold conditions.

  • The USDA reported net cancellations of 3.4 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, but an increase of 8.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 17.9 mb exceeded the 17.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s goal of 710 mb.

  • More rain is moving across parts of the western Corn Belt with the heaviest precipitation in west-central Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northwest Missouri. While not yet reflected by the US drought monitor, this should help with drought conditions on next week’s release. However, the southwestern Plains continue to be in need of more rain, having missed out on this system.

  • According to the USDA as of April 16, 24% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought. This is a relatively significant jump from 18% last week. In addition, 26% of the spring wheat growing area is in drought, which is unchanged from last week.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts that Argentina’s wheat plantings for the upcoming year will remain steady at 5.9 million hectares, mirroring last year’s figures. Planting typically occurs during June and July, and although conditions are expected to be favorable, concerns about the potential impact of La Niña persist. Meanwhile, in France, soft wheat plantings are estimated to decrease by 8% to 4.4 million hectares. Heavy rains since mid-October led to a 6% reduction in their total grain area.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Market weakness pushed July ’24 Chicago wheat below the 50-day moving average but 548 ½ initial support remains intact so far. If support holds, and prices rally back, they could still encounter resistance near the recent high of 574 ¾, before testing 585 – 620. Otherwise, if July ‘24 closes below 548 ¼, it remains at risk of drifting further to test the March low of 523 ½.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Despite recent bearish market reversals, July ’24 Minneapolis wheat remains rangebound since posting a low on April 3. Initial support below the market rests near 632, with the 625 ¼ April low just below that. Should these levels hold, and prices rally above 660 – 677 resistance, they could potentially test 700 – 712. If not, the market could drift toward 595 – 600 psychological support.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-17 End of Day: A Lack of Bullish News and Technical Selling Weighed on Corn and Wheat

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A lack of fresh news kept the corn market in a tight 3 ½ cent range for the day, with lower weekly ethanol production and lower wheat counterbalancing any positive influence from the higher soybean market.

  • July soybeans saw a recovery from overnight lows in choppy trade to settle 5 ¼ cents off its high in a relatively tight 12 ¾ cent range. Support came mostly from higher soybean meal that saw support from higher basis values. Meanwhile, bean oil experienced marginal gains as it settled mid-range attempting to recover from recent weakness.

  • Carryover weakness from lower Matif wheat futures and a general lack of fresh bullish news weighed on the wheat complex that saw technical selling in both Chicago and KC once prices breached yesterday’s lows.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks courtesy of NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn remains a follower of other grains as fresh news is lacking in the corn market. Wednesday’s lower prices saw continued choppy trade with a narrow daily trading range.

  • The weekly ethanol production report saw ethanol production for the week drop 6.9% lower than last week and 4.0% from last year to 983 million barrels/day. Total corn used for ethanol production last week was 97.57 mb, which was light to meet the average needed to reach USDA targets. Current ethanol stocks are plentiful, running 3.15% over last year.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales tomorrow morning. Last week saw disappointing corn sales totals of 326,000 mt. The market will be looking for new sales to total closer to the 1.0 mmt mark. Current corn sales and shipments are trending well ahead of last year’s levels.

  • A strong weather system followed by cool temperatures will likely slow the planting pace in many areas of the Corn Belt into the end of the week. Last week, corn planting was 6% complete nationally.

  • The corn market may see additional selling pressure moving into the end of the month. Producers who hold basis contracts will need to price or roll those contracts by first notice day, April 30, for May futures. This could bring a natural selling environment into the weak market tone for the corn market.

Above: The corn market transitioned lead months from May to July making the chart look like prices have gapped higher due to the 11-cent premium to July. The market remains largely rangebound and a close above could allow prices to test the 495 – 510 area. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but have trended significantly lower since the recent high, which was made on March 21. July futures are now down 76 cents from that point and are also only 24 cents above the contract low from the end of February. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.

  • Soybean sales estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report are between 250,000 and 400,000 mt. There were three flash sales reported last week to unknown destinations which will show up in tomorrow’s report. Export activity has been sluggish, attributed to the ongoing Brazilian harvest.

  • In Brazil, soybean exports for April are projected to hit 13.74 mmt, up from the previous month’s 12.73 mmt. Sales for the 23/24 season are anticipated to reach 41.6% of the expected output, slightly lower than the 43% recorded in the previous year. Estimates for the country’s total production vary, with the USDA providing a high-end estimate of 156 mmt.

  • Monday’s NOPA crush report brought positive news regarding the crush side, revealing that 196.406 mb were crushed in March, indicating robust domestic demand. However, the unexpectedly higher soybean oil stocks had a bearish impact.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower across the board, with both Chicago and KC posting double-digit losses, despite some easing up of the US Dollar. Matif futures also settled lower on the day, even though the overly wet conditions in France and parts of Europe that are affecting the crop. With little fundamental news to support today’s move, it may be mostly technical in nature.

  • Precipitation this week throughout the Midwest and the Plains will benefit both spring and winter wheat conditions. However, southern wheat areas like Kansas did not receive much of the moisture, which may keep their winter wheat crop conditions on the lower side.

  • The International Grains Council reports that the May FOB price for Russian wheat remains at $210 per mt, exerting continued pressure on the US market. Furthermore, LSEG Commodities Research has revised their estimate for Russian wheat production to 89.8 mmt, a 1.6% increase from their previous forecast. This projection excludes wheat production from occupied Ukrainian territory, and the rise in production is attributed to favorable weather conditions, including warmer temperatures and adequate soil moisture levels, benefiting both winter and spring wheat crops.

  • Iraq’s Minister of Commerce claims that the country is self-sufficient in food and wheat supplies for six months. Moreover, the Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a wheat harvest exceeding seven mmt. It’s reported that Iraq requires between 4.5 to 5 mmt of wheat annually to meet the needs of its 43 million people.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Chicago wheat transitioned lead contracts from May to July, like corn and soybeans, and the premium in the July contract places it above the 50-day moving average, though general market weakness remains. If July ’24 closes below initial resistance near 548 ¼, it remains at risk of drifting further to test the March low of 523 ½. If 548 ¼ holds, and prices rally higher, they could still encounter resistance near the recent high of 574 ¾, and again in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ½ in the July ’24 might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since February, Minneapolis wheat has largely been rangebound, except for a temporary dip to set a new contract low, from which prices have recovered. Although a lack of bullish drivers and resistance from the 50-day moving average remain, historical seasonal trends typically strengthen as we approach late spring and early summer. Furthermore, managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position, that potentially sets the stage for a short covering rally at any moment.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 3 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Other Charts / Weather

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4-16 End of Day: Weakness in the Soybean Complex Weighs on Corn, While Wheat Closes Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • With little fresh news, the corn market saw choppy trade that was caught between a lower soybean complex and a mixed wheat complex. The overall trend remains sideways with support below the market still holding.

  • Soybeans extended yesterday’s decline, initially influenced by lower soybean oil prices. At midday, additional pressure came from falling soybean meal, which drove beans to fresh six-week lows.

  • Soybean oil remained pressured from lower palm oil and yesterday’s NOPA crush data revealing higher-than-anticipated stock numbers, that suggest weaker-than-expected demand for biofuel use. Additionally, meal prices faced further downward pressure due to technical selling, particularly after breaking below the 50-day moving average.

  • The wheat market closed mixed, with KC leading Minneapolis higher, potentially influenced by a 6% decrease in the good to excellent ratings in Kansas. Meanwhile, Chicago continued its downward trend from yesterday, ending the day lower but near mid-range.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • A quiet news day led to selling pressure in the corn market as prices are overall trending sideways to lower, caught between losses in the soybean market and mixed trade in the wheat futures.  Technically, corn markets are testing and for today holding support levels under the corn market.

  • The USDA released crop progress and planting pace for corn on Monday afternoon. Currently, the corn crop is 6% planted, slightly below expectations and 1% above the 5-year average. Big planting jumps were seen in Missouri, North Carolina, and Kansas. Typically, corn is 27-30% planted by the end of April.

  • Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, but precipitation looks to stay active during this time window. A wetter pattern may slow planting progress into next week.

  • The US Dollar maintained its upward momentum, which is limiting the rally potential in the corn market, as the strong dollar index makes exports originating from the US more expensive.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day and again were bear spread with the front months posting the bulk of the losses compared to the deferred months. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well, but soybean oil had larger losses as it followed palm oil lower.

  • Today, crushing group Abiove revised their estimate of Brazilian soybean production higher to 160.3 mmt which throws more confusion into the mix as the USDA kept its estimate at 155 mmt, and CONAB remains much lower at 146 mmt. The discrepancy between estimates is strange considering that 85% of the crop is now reported as harvested.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 3% complete in the US, which is up from the trade guess at 2% and also up from the 5-year average of 1%. The 7-day forecast features a good amount of rain for eastern Texas as well as central Midwest.

  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush report was bearish as it showed soybean oil stocks higher than expectations at 1.851 B/lbs compared to the trade guess of 1.79. Soybean crush was a record for the month of March at 196.406 mb but was below expectations.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Above: Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat ended the session mixed; Chicago contracts were lower, while KC and Minneapolis were marginally higher. The US Dollar Index continues to climb higher limiting upside potential, and a lack of new fundamental supportive news is keeping wheat relatively rangebound.

  • The USDA’s Crop Progress report from yesterday indicated a 1% decline in the winter wheat condition, now at 55% rated good to excellent, compared to 27% at this time last year. Additionally, 11% of the crop is now headed, surpassing last year’s 9% and the 7% average. Moreover, 7% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, contrasting with 2% last year and the 6% average.

  • Ukraine’s winter crops, particularly wheat and barley, are reported to be in favorable condition by Ukraine’s Hydrometeorological Center. Despite relatively dry conditions this month, the crops have benefited from unseasonably warm temperatures since January, potentially leading to a production level meeting or exceeding last year’s, as suggested by the head of agriculture at the weather center.

  • In contrast, the USDA ag attaché in Ukraine has forecasted a decrease in grain production and exports for 24/25, potentially due to the ongoing war rather than weather factors. Profitability concerns since the onset of the conflict may lead to reduced acreage for the upcoming marketing year, and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region may hamper exports.

  • According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the El Nino weather pattern has concluded, potentially paving the way for La Nina conditions. However, uncertainties remain regarding the shift to La Nina, contrary to some forecasts. If La Nina does manifest, it could bring cooler and wetter weather to eastern Australia.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 3 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Above: Spring wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

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Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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4-15 End of Day: Grains Red to Start the Week, Middle East Conflict Intensifies

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures started the week on a weaker note piggybacking on double-digit losses seen across the board in soybean futures.

  • Soybeans, soybean meal and oil all closed lower to start the week. Despite today’s price action, NOPA US soybean crush for the month of March was reported today at a new all-time record of 196.4 million bushels.

  • Wheat futures fell to start the week as the US Dollar Index traded to a new high for its recent move. Tensions appear to be on the upward trend between Israel and Iran, yet grains and energy futures were for the most part quietly lower today.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA and The Weather Prediction Center scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

From the low on February 26 to the high on March 12, May corn experienced a significant rally of nearly 40 cents. However, since then, it has consolidated within a narrow trading range, fluctuating mostly between 430 and 445. The size of Managed Money’s net short position, coupled with prevailing macro oversold conditions, suggests potential for further upside as we head into spring planting. While the recovery in corn prices may encounter obstacles, overall market conditions remain conducive to a continued price recovery into May and June.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The target range to make additional sales is 480 – 520 versus May ’24 futures. If you need to move bushels for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We are targeting 520 – 560 to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ‘24 futures. For put option hedges, we are looking for 500 – 520 versus Dec ‘24 before recommending buying put options on production that cannot be forward priced prior to harvest.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. At the beginning of the year, Dec ’25 corn futures left a gap between 502 ½ and 504 on the daily chart. Considering the tendency for markets to fill price gaps like these, we are targeting the 495 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Selling pressure returned to the corn market to start the week. Weakness was seen throughout the entire grain complex led lower by double-digit losses in the soybean market as the price move gave back some of Friday’s gains.

  • Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, but precipitation looks to stay active during this time window. Overall, the current weather forecast should allow for a decent planting pace.

  • USDA crop progress will be released on Monday afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 3% complete versus a 5-year average of 2%. Planting pace should look to make gains in the weeks ahead.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 1.33 MMT (52.4 mb), which was within market expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year are now 1.129 billion bushels, up 34% from last year.

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico. Mexico purchased 165,000 MT of corn, which was split with 135,000 MT for this marketing year and 30,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Above: Since the beginning of March, the corn market has been trading sideways, bound mostly by 445 up top and 425 down below. If prices can breakout and close above resistance between the recent high of 448 and the January high of 452 ¼, they could run toward the next major resistance level of 495 – 510. If they break out to the downside and close below 421, they could slide further to test 400 – 410 support.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 3,998 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 263,554 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s April Supply and Demand report failed to provide significant bullish data to prompt substantial short covering, as it mainly reflected recent demand challenges and an increase in ending stocks that aligned with the market’s expectations. However, Managed Money retains a considerable net short position near 139,000 contracts, as of the latest Commitment of Traders report. This could still fuel a short covering rally should complications arise during planting season, which has just begun. Otherwise, if weather conditions cooperate and planting progresses without major issues, prices could remain susceptible to revisiting recent lows throughout the spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. We are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus May ’24 futures to recommend making further sales. If you need to move inventory for cash or logistics reasons, consider re-owning any sold bushels with September call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, we recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production and to protect any sales in an extended rally. We are currently targeting the 1280 – 1320 range versus Nov ’24 futures, which is a modest retracement toward the 2022 highs, to recommend making additional sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed significantly lower to start the week, with losses in the front month outweighing those in the new crop months. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well, but the larger losses were in soybean meal. Crude oil was lower today despite an escalation in the Middle East with Iran attacking Israel, and soybean oil followed crude lower.

  • The NOPA crush report was released today and showed 196.406 million bushels of soybeans crushed in March. This was slightly below expectations, which were around 197 mb, but were still a record high for March. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.851B/lbs, which was higher than the expectations of 1.79.

  • Today’s weekly inspections report showed soybean inspections totaling 15.9 mb for the week ending April 11. Total inspections are now at 1.398 bb for 23/24 and are down 18% from the previous year. Last week, two flash sales were announced which was encouraging given the lack of sales recently.

  • In Brazil, harvest is continuing at a good clip with the most recent progress called at 85.13% complete, which compares to 86.29% at this time a year ago. Rains had previously delayed some progress but have dried up now. Despite harvest, premiums in Brazil have been rising due to a lack of farmer selling.

Above: After closing below the 50-day moving average and 1168 support, the market is at risk of drifting lower and testing support between 1140 and the February low of 1128 ½. However, the market is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive to a move higher. For now, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 1178 ½ with heavier resistance remaining near the recent high of 1226 ¾.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,054 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 139,310 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished with losses across the board. The US Dollar Index did make a new near-term high today, which is not helping the grain complex. The fact that Matif wheat futures closed mixed to lower was also unhelpful.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were decent at 20.3 mb, and this brings the 23/24 inspections total to 585 mb. However, inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace, and they are still projecting 710 mb of export (which was unchanged in last week’s report).

  • April Russian wheat exports are expected to be record large at 4.4 mmt. March was also a record, with 4.8 mmt exported. And while Russia’s FOB values are said to still be on the rise, their export numbers do not bode well for the US market.

  • Northern Europe has seen a wet spring, which is affecting crop development of important crops, including barley and wheat. Since record keeping started in 1958, this was the fifth most wet March on the books for France. Rainfall over the winter was also unusually high.

  • The nation of Kazakhstan has reportedly extended their wheat import ban for an additional six months, according to their ag ministry. This is an effort to prevent the domestic market from declining, with the ministry stating that illegal wheat imports had previously caused internal prices to fall by more than 50%. Additionally, they claim that up to 2 mmt of wheat used to be illegally imported each year.

  • According to the Ukrainian ag ministry, their grain exports have fallen 4% year on year, since the season began on July 1. However, wheat in particular saw a 9% year on year increase to 14.7 mmt. And so far for the month of April, wheat exports have reached 386,000 mt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since marking a fresh low in early March, Chicago wheat has traded mostly sideways, seeing limited upward movement due to overhead resistance. While the absence of bullish signals has been disappointing, managed funds continue to maintain a significant net short position. This suggests the potential for a short covering rally to emerge at any moment, especially as we enter the more dynamic part of the growing season.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. At the end of August, we recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. For now, we are targeting a market rebound back towards 675 – 715 versus May ’24 futures before recommending any additional sales. As for the open 590 put position, we are looking for prices between 475 – 500 versus July ’24 futures to before we recommend exiting half of the remaining July ’24 590 puts.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. We recently recommended initiating your first sales for the 2025 SRW crop year as prices pressed back toward the mid-600 range to take advantage of historically good prices for next year’s crop. Since plenty of time remains to market this crop, we are looking for further price appreciation and are currently targeting the 690 – 725 area to recommend making additional sales.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The market has fallen away from the 50-day moving average and may be at risk of testing the 523 ½ low if it closes below 537. If prices turn back around and close back above the 50-day moving average, they could still encounter resistance in the 585 – 620 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,376 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 86,568 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of February, prices have been trading in a broad range, bound mostly by 555 on the downside and 605 up top, with little fresh bullish news to trade, while US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although, fundamentals remain weak. Managed funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, and the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, which combined could trigger a return to higher prices if unforeseen risks enter the market.

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Considering the current US export demand challenges and the sideways nature of the wheat market, we are looking for prices to return to the upper end of the recent range and are targeting the 600 area versus May ’24 to recommend making additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is to target 625 – 650 versus July ’24 futures to recommend additional sales.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Significant resistance remains within the range bound by the 50-day moving average and the March 10 high of 605 ¼. A close above 605 ¼ might pave the way for further advancement toward the congestion area of 610 – 640. Otherwise, should prices retreat below the initial support level of 561, there’s a possibility of testing the March low of 551 ½.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,137 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 44,611 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Minneapolis wheat has primarily traded within a range since last February until a recent breakout below its lower boundary, marking new contract lows and potentially signaling a continuation of the downtrend initiated last summer. Despite facing resistance from the 50-day moving average and a lack of bullish catalysts, seasonal patterns tend to improve heading into early summer. Furthermore, managed funds still maintain a large net short position, which might trigger a short covering rally at any time.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. The current strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and target 675 – 700 to recommend more sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), to protect the downside, and recommended exiting the original position in three separate tranches as the market got further extended into oversold territory to protect any gains that were made. The current strategy is targeting the 775 – 815 area versus Sept ’24 to recommend making additional sales. We are also targeting the 850 – 900 area to recommend buying upside calls to help protect any sales that would have been made.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We are currently not considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The April 11 close below 638 confirmed the reversal from the 50-day moving average the day before and suggests that prices may slide lower toward the April 4 low, with psychological support near 600 and the March ’21 low of 596 ¼ below that. If bullish input enters the market to turn prices back higher, overhead resistance may still be found in the 660 – 670 area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, April 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,437 contracts between April 2 – April 9, bringing their total position to a net short 27,107 contracts.

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